The current puzzle (beyond the meta puzzle as to why anyone in their right mind has ever voted for him) is that there are clearly certain current factors which should be reflected in Trump's polling, but for some reason they aren't there yet:
* I think (I'm having trouble finding the exact figure quickly - thanks Google :( ) the Haley primary vote ran on average at about 30%, for a candidate who had taken to sounding pretty much like a "never Trumper". (Given the jellyback that it takes to be a Republican politician these days, whether that will hold is an open question.)
* Trump's takeover of the RNC and immediately sacking a bunch of people must surely create animosity amongst some formerly loyal and influential party members.
* Trump is clearly making more verbal fumbles in his speeches than before, and appearing "low energy" at times. His "greatest hits" style of rambling before cultists (including reverting to patently childish insult) for an hour already feels old, and its wildly unlikely that he is going to change.
On the Biden side, you have the nutty Left who are swearing they won't vote for him over Israel/Gaza, preferring to sit it out and risk having a president about 300% worse on the issue. But really, I get the impression that this group is much louder than its actual numbers - much like the whining Bernie Sanders bros who didn't end up being all that influential.
I think - and this is just a hunch - that the anti-Trump wing of the Republicans must be larger, and knows to be discrete if they don't want to be harassed by family and friends - and as such should be much more influential in the final election vote.
But - this doesn't seem to be being reflected in polling.
I wonder why?
Update: here's an article (not from Nate Silver) looking at the uncertainties in polling at this stage of election cycles. It's pretty good.
Incidentally, I remain confident that Trump won't win - not only will the "anti Trump" faction of Republicans be important, continuing court battles will be a constant distraction for his campaigning, and if the polling remains close before the election, Democrat motivation (particularly amongst women) to prevent his return should be very high.
5 comments:
I think - and this is just a hunch - that the anti-Trump wing of the Republicans must be larger, and knows to be discrete if they don't want to be harassed by family and friends - and as such should be much more influential in the final election vote.
It is definitely growing. Yesterday I saw an interview with a GOP rep who has just resigned. That was very much about his disgust with so many in the GOP blindly submitting to Trump publicly while privately loathing the man. That trend will continue so Trump will continue to bleed support.
Trump's verbal gaffes are becoming more frequent and worse.
A set of Trump gaffes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgqxGFaDs9w&t=45s
The media has not really looked at the Trump gaffes as yet. I think this will change now both he and biden are the candidates
The media has not really looked at the Trump gaffes as yet. I think this will change now both he and biden are the candidates
The MSM hasn't but many vids on youtube about it. It will become more common. Trump's decline appears to be very rapid. In the past it was just word salad but lately it has qualitatively changed. That is significant because in the past he was able to pronounce words clearly and speak quickly. Now he is achieving neither. I heard one psychologist make an interesting observation about how Trump's tempo changes a lot, he at times appears fatigued. The psych said that is akin to "sundowning", which isn't quite accurate, but his essential point remains, that being that Trump is now showing a key symptom of emerging dementia: energy declines.
It is in the family.
Watch out for what happens in the various courts.
Only one case will be determined but lots of evidence will be shown and highly damaging to Trump.
MAGA will ignore it but the independents and others won't.
giving Ukraine to russia surely won't be popular
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