I see after complaining about a lack of detail in how renewables are going to replace coal, the AMEO has recently put out a "blueprint" about how it will be done by 2050.
Seems my hunch that an awful lot can be achieved by a combination of more solar power (but with home battery storage) was right:
About 6GW of renewable energy needs to be plugged into the grid each year to avoid a short-fall but currently only about 3GW is being added annually.
Perhaps acknowledging these problems, AEMO appears to have placed a greater emphasis on households, noting the take-up of rooftop solar, electric vehicles and hot water pumps "has the potential to reduce the need for utility-scale solutions".
Australians are taking matters into their own hands: about one in three of households has rooftop solar, with a capacity of 20 GW, and that's expected to grow to four in five households by 2050, generating 72 GW of power.
Rooftop solar contributed more electricity to the grid in the first three quarters of this year than large-scale solar, wind, hydro or gas.
Without better coordination of household batteries to store all of that power, an extra $4 billion will need to be spent on large-scale storage: "increasing the costs that are reflected in consumer bills".
The Smart Energy Council – which is represents large-scale renewables companies – has called for a "national battery booster program" to increase uptake.
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