Saturday, July 13, 2024

Back to Biden talk!

Because I was busy yesterday, I haven't had time to watch Biden's press conference.   It seems to me from commentary on Twitter that:

*  of course, MAGA types and their Russian bot supporters think mixing up a name is a Big Deal - and for Democrat supporters to go "oh no!  this is terrible!" instead of "don't be stupid, MAGA idiots - we've got a list of scores of time your yellow cult leader has done the same" is simply to play into their hands.

*  most of the handful of twitter commentators who I trust thought it was a pretty good, though not flawless, performance highlighting a President with depth of knowledge.   I'm presuming I will agree.

*  I think I was watching Biden live in Detroit at a campaign rally this morning.  It was a pretty good performance, and he is showing no sign at all of giving way to the punditry.  Quite the opposite.

* I also saw Jon Stewart on a clip with someone else going on about "obvious cognitive decline".   Look, he can be funny, but I also think he suffers from being a bit of a legend in his own mind in terms of political tactics.   I could say this about any of the Biden-friendly celebrities who came out either urging or suggesting that Biden step aside - including Colbert, and of course Clooney:  - you know that by not leaving a way out, you're hurting your own cause?    Wasn't it obvious that it was possible that Biden could strongly resist leaving, and that lots of people (including practically everyone at the NATO summit, given their deep fear of having to deal with idiot Trump again) would come out strongly in support of Biden as having good judgement even though he is not as fast and sharp a talker as he used to be?   But once you've made the call that Biden should leave - how squishy does that make you look in the eyes of the undecided voter if he doesn't, and you have to go back to urging your audience to vote for him?  

* In my opinion, nothing should have been openly canvassed about urging him to leave until a clear idea of the polling effect of Biden's general performance (not just the debate) was shaping up firmly.   And as far as I can tell, it hasn't yet, but all the indications are that it hasn't hurt him anywhere near as badly as the pundit class is claiming.  NPR reported yesterday:

The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

I know that swing states matter more, but pundits are still talking like Biden has no chance because he won't listen to their demand that he go.  In reality, this is the latest from 538:

 

As I said yesterday, it just seems to me that there has been a lot of miscalculation going on in the pundit class.    I don't object to them being concerned about the Biden debate performance - but to come out prematurely blazing, and with no "walk back" options, just seems wildly wrong.

1 comment:

Not Trampis said...

He was very good but of course all the media concentrated on the verbal flub.
That is the point. That will continue until the election is over if Biden continues.
Trump of course would not have unstood any of the questions