It's been many a year since a cyclone wandered as far south as Brisbane. From dim memory, one very small cyclone might have approached the Sunshine Coast when I was a youngster, but it didn't do much. Well, that's not counting one that came pretty close one Christmas when I was a toddler and the family was in a tent at Maroochydore and had to pack it up and go to - I think - the surf lifesaving club. I have no memory of that at all.
They all tend to fizzle out once this far down (except for the rain, which I think comes more from the post-cyclonic depression if it gets stuck in place)
This hasn't stopped a ridiculous amount of panic shopping, even in supermarkets probably 10 km from the coast, like my local ones. It seems Covid lockdowns have damaged the psyche of Australians forever such that any prospect of disruption to shopping for even a day causes a rush on toilet paper, bread, eggs (already in short supply) and some fresh fruit and vegetables. (No sign of a tomato - apart from cherry tomatoes - or bananas in the shop yesterday evening. Plenty of potatoes though.)
Of course, I could be wrong, I suppose, and there might be damage of an unexpected scale, especially to places right on the coast. I just can't see much risk of Category 1 or 2 causing much problem with 90% of Brisbane, though.
Let's see. Here's the current forecast path:
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