Loose thoughts

*  It's funny how Noah Smith told the world a few months ago that he had re-gained his libido (after many years of mysteriously having none, and he had checked it out medically), but this seems to have coincided with his become more right wing.   He's never been 100% reliable in his takes (and tends to be more reasonable in his substack essays than on Twitter/X), but he is saying more sillier things lately after (presumably) resuming a sex life.  Curious!

* That Zohran Mamdami is causing a MAGA freakout, and Noah Smith and some Democrats are wary of him; but he clearly has plenty of charisma and, who knows, maybe he will do good for the city of New York.  It will be a curious experiment, at least.

*  Was Prunella Scales the only person in the world with the name "Prunella"?  It was an very distinctive name.   (For what it's worth, I think Fawlty Towers was a bit over-rated, though.)

*  The storm in my suburban area on Sunday was very bad.   I was in a shopping centre with water coming out around light fittings, again.  This seems a very common feature of heavy storms in Australia - the number of times you see video of water leaking into a mall around light fittings.   I wonder why this is such a common problem.

 

 

What if this whole "humanity" thing was a mistake?

I'm being facetious in the title:  but it's just that the dropping birth rate everywhere, no matter how conservative or liberal the society appears to be, can be used to suggest the zeitgeist is not too far from that. 

Actually, I should take that back.  I don't want to sound like Elon Musk, who has taken it upon himself to try to impregnate any (barely) willing woman as a way of keeping humanity going.   

Anyway, here's the reason for the post:

Finland's stubbornly low birth rate shows why a population shift may be inevitable 

And in the big picture, let's remember Africa.   It's a curious question as to how long it will take for them to catch up.  

 

 

 

Impermanence

I think I commented earlier this year about the abrupt disappearance of long time conservative blogger Currency Lad, and see that (as some people predicted in the comments thread which they continued to inhabit after he stopped posting) the blog itself has gone, as (I think) the domain was up for re-registration in October, and it was expected that if he had actually died (or had lost mental capacity), it would disappear.

Hence, the only record that seems to exist of his years of writing is on Trove or the Wayback Machine, and they tend to go back to his earlier blogs.  (For whatever reason, he changed blog hosts).

Now, while I had initially liked some of his takes when I first starting blogging and was more conservative, and then later found he was a dislikeable and dishonest person in debate on Catallaxy, and he ended up going full right wing nutter in his last blog, I still find it disheartening that the internet is such an impermanent place for records.

Even in this blog, the number of dead links in my older posts seems to be climbing rapidly.

I keep getting the feeling, perhaps under the influence of science fiction or Twilight Zone episodes, that we are going to one day get to the point where people are sure some vital piece of information for the survival of humanity was once to be found on a defunct website, and no one can find it anymore.   Or am I worrying too much?   I mean, the same story could be run about a lost book.   I guess it's just that the internet is more accessible to everyone, and the impermanence of information on it feels worse for that reason?  

I even lost courting emails to my wife when a free email service I used at the time went belly up.

On the other hand, who needs crap kept forever?  There are obviously billions of photographs saved online now that no one is ever going to look at again after the owner dies and their account disappears.

I don't know - the current haphazard situation of what gets preserved and what evaporates seems unsatisfactory to me. 

 

The modern problem

This is a rather interesting article at The Guardian, all about how even in relatively conservative (and Catholic) Poland, the birth rate is in free fall.   

As Noah Smith has said many times, no one has a "solution" to this issue. 

I can never quite decide how much it should be worried about.   I mean, I think it a great pity that more people don't get to enjoy child rearing - and seemingly don't realise how good it can be - but if the world as a whole wants to settle on a smaller long term population, that's probably a good thing from an environmental point of view.    

 

Hard to believe what is going in the US

The New York Times:

Since early September, U.S. forces have carried out eight strikes on boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing at least 34 people. President Trump says the strikes are legal, and that the boats were trafficking drugs, but he has not offered evidence to substantiate the claim. Nor has he explained how the deliberate, premeditated killing of civilians — what Colombian and Venezuelan leaders and some jurists have called “murder”— can possibly be reconciled with domestic and international law. The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel has reportedly deemed the strikes lawful, but its analysis hasn’t been disclosed.

A quarter-century after the Sept. 11 attacks, then, we find ourselves in a familiar place: Our government is once again committing grave human rights abuses on the ostensible authority of a legal opinion that is being kept secret. 

The Washington Post:

Why the demolition of the East Wing is so shocking

The speed of destruction, and the projection of power, are part of the strongman playbook. 

The White House:

 

Talk about your "get a life" stories

The Guardian says that Interstellar is Nolan's  "most loved" film.  The article starts:

Every Saturday, for the last 18 months, Shane Short has watched the same film: Christopher Nolan’s 2014 space epic Interstellar. He’s not even sure how many times he has seen it now, though he does know he saw it 31 times in cinemas when it was briefly rereleased for its 10th anniversary in 2024. This year he has flown from his home in Hawaii to Melbourne to watch Interstellar projected on 1570 film at the city’s Imax – twice – where the regular screenings of Interstellar, even those held midweek and during the day, can reliably sell out in minutes. 

I wonder if he is in a relationship - of any kind.

Maybe he is?  Further down in the article:

 Even Short, 38, wasn’t that impressed with Interstellar when he first saw it in 2014; the ending confused him. But now he credits the film as having fundamentally changed who he is.

“A lot of things in Interstellar are very emotional for me,” he says. “I never really connected with that part of myself, and the movie has helped me. Like, I wasn’t on board to have kids at all. I wasn’t against it, I was on the fence. But after seeing the relationship between Cooper and Murph, I wanted that. It definitely changed my mind.”

 OK...

I feel I'm being mean to him, but to my mind it remains a terribly written, uninterestingly executed, and dull bit of silly science fiction (even allowing for the relativistic bits being realistic.) 

The darkness would not be for me

Here's an interesting article by someone who went on a Buddhist inspired weekend retreat in a completely blacked out room.   It seems he was generally into meditation and "spiritual enquiry", but isn't a Buddhist.

Oddly, despite the experience sounding very weird and disconcerting, it doesn't seem as if it had much effect on him.   

No way I would do that - I'm even hesitant to try one of those float therapy pods, in case I revert to a pre-human.  (Readers require knowledge of the wacko movie Altered States to understand...) 

Trump and Albo

It's disappointing that Albanese has had to join the long standing tradition of Labor Prime Ministers pretending they have no issue with an American Republican President.  I remember Hawke getting all defensive of Reagan with Australian reporters, saying something about how he was sharp and on top of his game, etc.   You could tell it was an insincere, opportunistic performance.  

To have to be all smiley while doing deals with Trump is far more dismaying.

What can you do, I guess?   Perhaps just buy subs off the Japanese, like I was suggesting years ago? 

Nothing much to disagree with here

Trump Is Dragging Us Down to His Level 

We learned last week that a cohort of Republican activists and political staff members had shared racist and misogynist messages in a private text chat. It’s a story that repeats itself with depressing regularity, varying only the names of the participants and the depravity of the content.

As Jason Beeferman and Emily Ngo reported in Politico, leaders of Young Republican groups from across the nation “referred to Black people as monkeys and ‘the watermelon people’ and mused about putting their political opponents in gas chambers. They talked about raping their enemies and driving them to suicide and lauded Republicans who they believed support slavery.”

Chats like this are so widespread in right-wing circles that Aaron Sibarium, one of the best reporters in right-wing media, posted this comment in 2023: “Whenever I’m on a career advice panel for young conservatives, I tell them to avoid group chats that use the N-word or otherwise blur the line between edgelording and earnest bigotry.”

Thankfully, the Young Republicans National Federation forcefully condemned the chats, along with a number of other Republican writers and politicians. Several participants in the chat lost their jobs in politics.

 But not everyone was outraged. Far from it. The vice president of the United States rallied to their defense. In response to the Politico report, JD Vance posted screenshots of vile text messages from Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee for attorney general of Virginia, in which Jones wished death on a man named Todd Gilbert, a Republican, who was one of his colleagues in the Virginia House of Delegates.

“This is far worse than anything said in a college group chat, and the guy who said it could become the AG of Virginia,” he wrote. “I refuse to join the pearl clutching when powerful people call for political violence.”

The responses to Vance are obvious, or at least they should be. Why can’t we condemn Jones and the Young Republicans? None of those individuals belong in American politics, so why not condemn them all?....

 

First, when the most powerful and successful politician of the past decade is an immoral man who is dishonest, cruel and illiberal at a fundamental level, it creates a situation — especially in his own party — that rewards all the same vices.

The result is a push-pull dynamic that pushes people of good character out of the party and pulls in new leaders and new people who share the leader’s ethos. Every year, this cultural trend reinforces itself. Decency becomes rarer, and decent people feel more isolated.

Meanwhile, the trolls multiply until the radicals become the mainstream and the previous mainstream becomes the fringe.  

The rest of it is worth reading, but it ends on this point for which the Republicans are much, much worse culprits:

The story of this past week is the story of this past year. It’s the story of this decade. If your political opponents represent ultimate evil, then the only morality left is the morality of victory. The only true sin is the sin of defeat. 

I've been saying that for years.  And it is Republicans who are far more likely to believe Democrats are literally evil.  Democrats are more likely to think Republicans are primarily dumb, as well as malicious. 

Sounds familiar

 

Of course it's illegal - and I can't see why if Duterte is chased down as a criminal, Trump shouldn't be too

It's driving me a bit nuts that the condemnation of Trump FOR DECIDING TO EXECUTE ALLEGED CRIMINALS AT SEA is not louder.

 This is appalling behaviour that idiotic MAGA cult membership is excusing because it's a cult.   Cult leaders can do no wrong:

Trump has argued that he has the legal authority to conduct these strikes because he has determined that the United States is in “armed conflict” with Latin American drug cartels.

Some in Congress, which has the sole authority to declare war and has not formally authorized the use of force in this instance, have pushed back against the president’s claims. Lawmakers from both parties have been frustrated with what they say is a lack of information from the administration about its objectives.

However, last week, Senate Republicans narrowly defeated an effort led by Democrats that would have blocked the U.S. military from continuing the strikes.

In January, Trump issued an executive order designating a number of Latin American groups as foreign terrorist organizations. He has leaned into that declaration in recent weeks as he and his administration have sought to justify its lethal campaign in the Caribbean.

In a recent notice to Congress that was reviewed by The Washington Post, the White House indicated that Trump directed the attacks pursuant to the law of armed conflict after he “determined that the United States is in a non-international armed conflict with these designated terrorist organizations” and must conduct the strikes in self-defense. 

 And charge JD Vance too, an appalling twerp.  (This is from an article by a lawyer from the ACLU):

...we already know enough about these strikes to call them what they are: extrajudicial killings that are flagrantly illegal under both domestic and international law.

No one is under any illusions that anyone in the administration is likely to listen to the voices across the political spectrum who agree with this conclusion: Vice President (and Yale Law graduate) JD Vance declared he doesn’t “give a s---” whether the strikes are illegal. But it is critical that the rest of us refuse to treat these strikes as a new normal. Everyone who cares about the rule of law and human rights must continue to press for transparency, accountability and an immediate end to this illegal and lethal campaign.  

From General to all purpose God

 

Here's my personal souvenir from the last trip to Singapore:  a figurine of a Chinese deity who I had been seeing in different versions everywhere, pretty much, but without recognising it as the same god, or his name, until this trip.  As mentioned in a recent post, a guy in a Buddhist temple on the northern edge of Singapore took the time to explain to me the different statues and figures I was looking at, and one was indeed this guy, who does feature as a side character, so to speak, in many Chinese Buddhist temples.    I'm pretty sure I have seen him in Japanese temples, too.  He is also the red faced guardian deity who features in some Chinese homes (or businesses) on an altar facing the front entry, in order to ward off evil entities (or perhaps people?) from entering.   

He's Guan Yu, or Guan Gong, and there is a pretty extensive Wikipedia page that explains his history.  It's an interesting case of a real person being deified after death, in a process taking centuries and including the benefit of fan fiction in a popular novel.

He lived around 200BCE, and there are several aspects of his life and legend that are pretty fascinating:

*   He didn't exactly dies in a glorious manner as one might expect - in the midst of battle by a lucky arrow, or anything.  He was captured and executed.  Didn't hurt his reputation, though.

*  How did Buddhism claim him as their own?   According to Wikipedia:

According to Buddhist legends, in 592, Guan Yu manifested himself one night before the Chan master Zhiyi, the founder of the Tiantai school of Buddhism, along with a retinue of spiritual beings. Zhiyi was then in deep meditation on Jade Spring Hill (玉泉山) when he was distracted by Guan Yu's presence. Guan Yu then requested the master to teach him about the dharma. After receiving Buddhist teachings from the master, Guan Yu took refuge in the triple gems and also requested the Five Precepts. Henceforth, it is said that Guan Yu made a vow to become a guardian of temples and the dharma. Legends also claim that Guan Yu assisted Zhiyi in the construction of the Yuquan Temple, which still stands today. 

 *  Apparently, both the Hong Kong police, and the triads, honoured him - you really are an all purpose God when both sides of the law think you're on their side.

*   There also features a period in which he was believed by some to be communicating directly through "spirit writing".  Here's the Wiki explanation:

Guan Yu's messages were received by mediums through spirit writing, later called Fújī (planchette writing) (扶乩/扶箕), since the late 17th century. "By the mid-Qianlong period (1736–96) the number of 'sacred edicts' issued by Guandi ordering people to do good and help those in need became increasingly frequent." In the 19th century, Guandi's messages received through spirit writing assumed a millennialist character. Dates were announced for the end of the world, followed by messages indicating that Guandi had "prevented the apocalypse" and was indeed "the savior of endtimes." In 1866, the Ten Completions Society (Shíquánhùi 十全會) was established to propagate the messages of Guandi and promote the charitable work his spirit had ordered to perform. The tradition of Guandi spirit writing continued in Chinese folk Religion well into the 20th century. 

 I was aware of "planchette writing" as part of the Spiritualist movement in the West in the 19th century.    What I didn't know was that it was a thing way earlier than that in China. There's a whole Wiki page on that topic, too!

This is all pretty fascinating, and feel it is something I should have known about earlier.  All the more reason for me to travel to Asia, I think... 

Alan needs to talk to more people about fusion

I really like the ABC's finance guy Alan Kohler, but he really shows inadequate skepticism in this article about the prospects for fusion power.   For example:

...there are two Australian outfits in the thick of it: super fund Hostplus and a small private company based in Sydney called HB11.

Hostplus has invested $330 million for a 4 per cent stake in the Boston company that is generally seen as leading the race to commercial fusion in the United States: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS). 

I would be swapping super funds fast if I know mine was investing in fusion start ups!

Hostplus's chief investment officer Sam Sicilia (who has a PhD in theoretical physics as well as a master of applied finance), told me last week that "This is the biggest potential change in the world's energy mix that we have seen in our lifetime."

He reckons CFS could be a US$1 trillion company, which would make it easily Hostplus's biggest investment.

"We're looking at fusion as clean energy and … infinite power forever. That's what's at stake here.

He went on: "[The] timeframe is now down to five years and we can see the progress that's been made in the fusion field, we can see the high temperature super conducting magnets that have been produced to hold a very, very hot plasma...

 Alan then goes on to talk about an Australian company proposing the laser path to fusion.  But look at this:

An Australian company, HB11, says it is leading the world in using lasers, and is currently building a prototype in Adelaide, which is apparently one of the best places in the world for lasers.

The company is still mainly owned by the two scientists who started it, CEO Warren McKenzie and 94-year-old Professor Heinrich Hora, as well as some early investors who have funded their work.

Chief operating officer Greg Ainsworth told me they were building a business around high-powered lasers that could shoot down a military drone from about 3 kilometres away, to help fund the work on fusion energy.

He says HB11 expects to have a pilot plant generating fusion electricity in the 2030s. 

I'm sorry, I'm well on the path towards old age myself, but I just find it very hard to believe that a 94 year old is going to be making any key contribution to this.  And the 2030's are barely 5 years away. An estimate of power being generated by fusion within 5 to 15 years is just fanciful.

Sabine Hossenfelder did a skeptical take on these start up claims recently - and previously I think even she has sounded to easily convinced that fusion is the way of the future.  (She still believes it will eventually work - but I have my doubts she has looked into the technical and engineering challenges all that carefully.) 

 

LLMs seem remarkably fragile

I haven't noticed any discussion of this, surprisingly:

Size doesn't matter: Just a small number of malicious files can corrupt LLMs of any size

Large language models (LLMs), which power sophisticated AI chatbots, are more vulnerable than previously thought. According to research by Anthropic, the UK AI Security Institute and the Alan Turing Institute, it only takes 250 malicious documents to compromise even the largest models.  

The vast majority of data used to train LLMs is scraped from the public internet. While this helps them to build knowledge and generate natural responses, it also puts them at risk from data poisoning attacks. It had been thought that as models grew, the risk was minimized because the percentage of poisoned data had to remain the same. In other words, it would need massive amounts of data to corrupt the largest models. But in this study, which is published on the arXiv preprint server, researchers showed that an attacker only needs a small number of poisoned documents to potentially wreak havoc.

To assess the ease of compromising large AI models, the researchers built several LLMs from scratch, ranging from small systems (600 million parameters) to very large (13 billion parameters). Each model was trained on vast amounts of clean public data, but the team inserted a fixed number of malicious files (100 to 500) into each one.

Next, the team tried to foil these attacks by changing how the bad files were organized or when they were introduced in the training. Then they repeated the attacks during each model's last training step, the fine-tuning phase.

What they found was that for an attack to be successful, size doesn't matter at all. As few as 250 malicious documents were enough to install a secret backdoor (a hidden trigger that makes the AI perform a harmful action) in every single model tested. This was even true on the largest models that had been trained on 20 times more clean data than the smallest ones. Adding huge amounts of clean data did not dilute the malware or stop an attack. 

 That seems so...odd.   But maybe it helps explain why Musk has had so much trouble with his attempted fine tuning of Grok to only give answers he likes, and not start praising Hitler!

The flu

It would seem I have had Influenza A for a week or so, without knowing.   I thought flu was supposed to make you sicker than this, as I was guessing I had a cold type virus; but the very very wheezy left lung sounds when I would lie down at night is what made me check it out further.  

As I have aged, the one thing all head infections seem to cause me is huge throbbing pain in my forehead sinuses when I cough.   This happens regardless of whether my nose is blocked or feeling particularly congested.   And when I am not coughing, the forehead doesn't hurt.   I never used to get this a regular feature of colds or viruses, but I sure do now.

Anyway, I'm likely non infectious and over the worst of it, according to the doctor.

 

The one theatre critics got very wrong

On the 40th anniversary of the show, the New York Times looks back at the complicated origin of Les Miserables and notes the (pretty well known, but still remarkable) fact that the reviews of its first performance in London were dismissive and pretty bad.   Apparently, great word of mouth from the audience won the day and the musical went on to a full run and enormous international success.

I have noted in previous posts that I have found the show more moving the older I get, and I find it very hard to understand the critics' negativity.  One now says it was snobbery:

Lyn Gardner, one of Britain’s longest-serving theater critics, was one of those who originally panned it, writing in City Limits magazine that the musical was “sentimental old tosh.” In a recent interview, Gardner said there had been “a lot of snobbery” around the original show, given that it was a Royal Shakespeare Company co-production and many critics believed that the revered outfit shouldn’t dabble in West End musicals. 

Gardner said she stood by her original assessment, but now recognized that “Les Misérables” had many charms. “It does what all great musicals do: It makes you feel,” she said, adding, “It doesn’t make you think so much.” 

She still sounds a snob, then.

All trans, all the time

For months now, Right Wing Twitter types have been high-fiving each other about the claimed stagnation and Lefty navel gazing of Bluesky, as if Twitter was on the ascendancy again under the glorious reign of Elon the First.    (Musk continues to wave around highly, highly dubious claims of Twitter being "the no.1 news app" and such like.)

I continue to dip into both apps most days, rarely engaging in each, just as always been the case.   And perhaps this isn't the optimal way to use them, but I mainly just look at the "Discover" column on Bluesky and the "For You" half of Twitter, since for these apps I am happy for a bit of algorithmic serendipity to  show me something I might be interested in.

Based on this type of usage, here is how I would describe both apps:

X/Twitter:  ALL TRANS, ALL THE TIME.   (By which I mean, seemingly half of the tweets I see are about the trans issue in an aggressively anti-trans, full blown moral panic, and/or ridiculing, kind of way.  To paint a complete picture, I would say 40% is anti immigration, MAGA stuff, about 5% is Musk's personal contribution to conspiracy world, and a mere 5% or less is stuff I am happy to see from the handful of centrists who have declined to jump ship.)   Trump could be machine gunning suspected illegal immigrants while incarcerating the entire Democrat side of congress, and X users would not care, as long as that really ugly transwoman doesn't get to use a female toilet.  As a culture war issue, it's still running as hot as hell, if X's algorithm is any guide.     (I know, maybe it isn't an accurate guide, as Musk can't keep his dirty fingers off the algorithm, hating transactivism as he does because of the son/daughter who has rejected him.  Or is it purely my fault for occasionally clicking on a trans tweet?  I don't think so, somehow.) 

Even for someone who shares the view that the trans issue definitely warranted a correction - and (to be truthful) finds some of the ridiculing posts funny (because it is hard to believe what some men who think they are "real" women think looks "sexy") - the "all trans, all the time" attitude at X just feels exhausting after all these months/years of such content.  

Bluesky:  Still suffers from weird outbreaks of "LOOK AT MY CUTESY ARTWORK" posts from time to time.   When I first started using it, I noted that the Discover feed was overwhelmed by pet photos, particularly of cats.   Since then, by blocking or noting that I do not want to see of that type of content, I have stopped that happening, but for some oddball reason, every few months I will get a burst of people posting their latest artwork, usually in a quasi-anime or fantasy illustration style.  I have never shown interest in such content, but the algorithm "tries it on" for some bizarre reason, and I have to spend a couple of days of "do not want to see content like this" marking of the posts.

That said, the "death of Bluesky" seems vastly overrated to me - if you "curate" your interests and posts adequately,  it broadly works in a decent way.   (And although I forget to check them much, the individual topic fees, on "Science" for example, can be pretty good.)

I get that the app may be the home of the chronically "woke" Lefty activists demanding this and that, which gives the place the feeling of lack of balance in the same way that X does in the opposite direction.  But as I say, they can be avoided and not interrupt one's feed much.  It's certainly easier avoiding aggressive Lefties on Bluesky than it is to avoid mad MAGAs on X.

 

I guess what feels missing from using both of them is an app for the "mainly centrist" users who would like to see something like the old usefulness of Twitter - where you knew that you could get good links to news report, and local input on events (even something like big weather events as they are happening) - relatively reliably and quickly.   Neither X (personal Muskian grudge machine) nor Bluesky (too far "woke" Lefty activist haunt) has that same functionality that Twitter used to, and I still miss that somewhat. 

   

Old scrolls, discussed

Stumbling around the internet, I just found myself reading about the earliest dated physical copies of the Buddhist scriptures.

For those who have been following (hello?), I find more appeal in the Mahayana branch of Buddhism, but know that it was a development out of earlier Buddhism as that is generally seen as defined by the "Pali canon".  

I had always assumed that the earliest examples of the Pali cannon had been more or less accurately dated, and that they would come from well before the dating of the earliest Mahayanan Sutras.

But no, it seems this is not the case at all.  First, remembering that the rough date for the birth of the "original" Buddha is about 560 BCE:

a.    despite the belief that the Pali texts were first committed to writing, rather than oral tradition,in Sri Lanka around the first century BCE (that is, like, 400 years after the death of Buddha, give or take!), it seems the earliest fragments of Pali texts come from around 550 to 650 CE in Burma.  (A full 1,000 years after its apparent founder.)  

b.    the Mahayana texts, however, have substantial bits dated to around 200CE:

The earliest accurately dated Mahayana texts are those translated by the Indoscythian monk Lokakṣema in the 2nd century CE, who came from Gandhāra to China. These include about ten Mahayana sutras translated before 186 CE, which constitute the earliest objectively dated Mahayana literature. Modern scholarship generally agrees that Mahayana sutras began to appear between the 1st century BCE and the 1st century CE, but the earliest physical evidence with firm dating comes from Lokakṣema's Chinese translations around the mid-2nd century CE. These texts show developed Mahayana doctrines and literary style, indicating a prior phase of composition stretching back possibly a century or more before their translation.

This brief article on the Gandhara scrolls contains this surprise, too:

The scrolls contain linguistic treasures as well. They’re written in Gāndhārī, a vernacular derivative of Sanskrit; Kharoṣṭhī, the script used to actually set down the words on birch bark, derives from Aramaic, according to Salomon. 

There's also an article on line* that explains the (quite possibly mythical?) origins of the motivation for conversion of oral transmission to written:

Buddhist chronicles in Pali tell us that the hitherto recited Buddhist texts were written down in Sri Lanka in the early first century B.C. when a severe famine occurred.
As the population diminished, the Buddhist order feared that Buddhism would perish, for once monks who memorized and recited those texts were dead, the texts
themselves would disappear. Thus the Buddhist order wrote down the texts in order
to preserve them for posterity.2 Another legend says that King Kaniska (the late first
or early to middle second century A.D.) ordered Buddhist texts to be inscribed on
copper plates and kept in a stupa in Kashmir of northern India.3 Yet the written or
inscribed Buddhist texts themselves are not extant. Incidentally, Chinese Buddhist
texts were also inscribed on stones, which are much more durable than paper (the
usual writing material), as a precaution against the disappearance of the Buddhist
doctrine. Such a precaution was believed necessary both because Buddhism was
persecuted several times in China, and also because the mo-fa theory, which
held that the Buddhist teachings would soon disappear, became widely accepted. 

It also mentions that the Mahayan sutras were more likely to be committed to writing recorded from the start:

 Incidentally, Mahayana sutras, which are thought to have been gradually formed from about the first century B.C., are presumed in many cases to have been written down from the beginning because the texts themselves instruct the readers to copy them. In fact,
abundant copies of some Mahayana sutras are preserved in manuscript form in
Nepal. However, the Indic texts of other Mahayana sutras are not extant at all.

 There is also mention of how Indian emperor Asokha, around 260BCE, converted to Buddhism and had mention of it carved on pillars, etc, but did not apparently see the need to set down the texts in full.  

The estimate date of writing the scrolls aligns very closely to when the New Testament books were being written**:

Chapter 6 describes the palaeographic and linguistic features of the manuscripts.
The palaeographic evidence indicates that the manuscripts were probably written
between the earlier part of the first century A.D. and the age of Kaniska (the late first
or early to middle second century).  

So, it's a curious thing that the later branch of Buddhism actually has fairly substantially older original documentary evidence.     (And the fact that there was a lot of religious "commit it to writing" going on around the same time.)

Update:   I still don't understand how we know that the Pali canon was first committed to writing in Sri Lanka around the first century BCE, if we don't have manuscripts from then.   Let's see what AI (in the form of Perplexity) says:

Here is how scholars and tradition establish this dating despite the absence of original manuscripts: 

👉Oral transmission: The early Buddhist teachings were preserved orally for several centuries, passed down through meticulous memorization and communal recitation by monks. This oral tradition was considered highly reliable and central to preserving the teachings exactly as taught by the Buddha.
 

👉   The Sri Lankan chronicle Mahavamsa records that the Pali Canon was first committed to writing in the 1st century BCE to preserve it from loss due to famine, war, or decay. This event is linked to a formal Buddhist council held in Sri Lanka.

 👉 Linguistic and historical context: Scholars date the Pali Canon partly by comparing the language style to related ancient Prakrit languages and by cross-referencing historical events mentioned or implied in the texts with known timelines.

 👉  Archaeological evidence shows that the oldest surviving Pali manuscripts date much later, from around the 5th century CE onward, often on palm leaves or other materials which do not survive well over more than a millennium.

👉The notion of a fixed Pali Canon from 100 BCE onwards is supported by continued manuscript copying and commentary traditions in Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia, and references back to this origin in later texts.   

 

So, yeah, I knew for a long time that compared to Christianity, Buddhist had quite the "historicity" issue; what I didn't realise was that within the various Buddhist traditions, the apparent later branch had the earlier physical documents.

 

* it's downloadable but I can't find the link to it now - it's called  REVIEW ARTICLE
The Discovery of “the Oldest Buddhist Manuscripts” ENOMOTO FUMIO 

** the dates now believed for the writing of the various New Testament books range from around 50 to 125CE.   

Rugby league, noted

While I usually watch only State of Origin (and then, not always) matches and the Grand Final (at least if a Queensland team is involved), I have to say that the Grand Final on Sunday confirmed my theory that rugby league has the right amount of scoring and skills, and tension, to make it the most easily enjoyed football code.   Soccer has a pathetic rate of scoring; AFL has activities going on all over the place and scores too often, and rugby union has stupid periods of pile ons where you can't even see the ball or know what is going on.

League has some aspects that kind of don't make sense, but overall, it can make for a very enjoyable spectator experience.  

Recommendations - Singapore

I've been back home for a few days, but have been feeling a bit sick, hence the lack of posts.

I should do a post about how well I now know Singapore, with photos, but the photos will come later.

Some random things learnt this time:

*  Katong remains my now preferred area to stay in - a somewhat hipster, upper middle class (I would guess) area that is easy to use as a base to see the rest of the island because of the new-ish Thomson East-West MRT line which currently ends close to the airport but will, in a few years, join it.   (There are also plenty of buses that run through the main road of Katong.)  This trip, I used my Visa card to catch the MRT from the airport to Marine Parade station (following a route which involved two changes of lines and took maybe 50 minutes) and it cost all of $3.60 AUD.   The bus from the airport is a much more direct route, but I have to say, the previous trip I found it was quite a challenge (even using Google maps) finding the correct bus stop, at the correct terminal, for the ride to Katong.  (The public transport buses all run from basement type stops, and maybe it was my incompetence, but it was not easy.)   The MRT is, by comparison, very easy to find and provided you've downloaded the MRT network map to your phone, it's easy to work out where to change lines.  (There are several apps which feature the MRT map.)

*  I did, this time, however, buy myself a 3 day unlimited travel pass for $27SGD.  I would guess that if you are going to make 4 or more MRT or bus trips in a day, the pass is no more expensive than paying for individual trips, but the other reason it is now a more attractive thing to use is that you no longer have to go to one of the limited number of stations where the old tourist pass used to be sold, bring your passport  and pay a $10 refundable deposit (and then remember to claim the deposit, by again going to a ticket office at a limited number of stations to hand in the card.)  Instead, the card can just be used as a rechargeable fare card when it has expired - although whether there is any particular advantage to doing that instead of just tapping on and off with your credit card is not clear to me.   

But overall, this change is a significant improvement over the old system.   

* I have stayed at two very good hotels at Katong now - Santa Grand Hotel East Coast and Village Hotel Katong.   The Santa Grand is cheaper, with rooms sometimes available at under $200 a night, and it doesn't have a bar or room service (I don't think), but Katong is full of coffee shops, bakeries, bars and a range of cafes covering Indian, Chinese and I think even Peranakan food.   There is an old Hindu temple in a side street, which I think explains the Indian food options, even though it is not close to Little India.  In fact, I ate twice at an Indian cafe where the mains were under $20, and the total meal and drinks cost was around $25 and $30.   Hence, even without going to a Hawker Centre, eating in Singapore does not have to be expensive.

*  Speaking of eating, a place I went to because I saw it discussed on a couple of Youtube channels was the Fortune Centre which is pretty close to the busy shopping area of Bugis.   It has become almost entirely a multilevel food outlet, with lots of vegetarian (because it is close to an old temple) but also meat options. Apart from some Chinese options, it's got everything from Japanese to Korean to Vietnamese food, and it all seemed pretty moderately priced and is in air conditioned comfort.  I ate at a vegetarian place, actually, and it was very good.

*  Although eating at a hawker centre is seen as a quintessential tourist experience, I don't usually go to them for a couple of reasons:   I don't care for eating off plastic plates or bowls; they are rarely enclosed enough to be air conditioned; and the service can be a tad intimidating, especially if it is a busy stall.   I tell people that a busy stall can make you feel a bit like the experiencing the Soup Nazi episode of Seinfeld.   So, yeah, if you're visiting first time you might like to try eating at a couple, but it's not essential as a means to eat cheaply.  (I also think that the hawker staple - chicken rice - is a vastly overrated dish and I don't bother eating it after having tried it a couple of times.)

*  As for places to eat some hawker style dishes but in airconditioned comfort, you can always look in the basement of shopping centres.  They quite often will have an area of stalls that do all of the main things you can expect at a real hawker centre.  Even up market centres like The Jewel shopping centre at the airport, and Tang's department store in Orchard Road, do this semi-hawker centre style thing in their basements.   They will be, no doubt, a bit more expensive than at a real one, but the experience may be a bit more pleasant.

*  This trip, I finally made it to Sentosa Island, the very touristy development with beaches on which hardly anyone swims, but it was still interesting and good to see.  I was especially lucky to stumble upon a free guided tour of Fort Siloso (only run on weekends, I believe) - and the fort and its museum style rooms turned out to be bigger and more interesting that I expected.  (The rooms devoted to World War 2 and the Japanese occupation were particularly good, and taught me thing I didn't know.  It will get its own post.)

* I also finally made a trip to the observation deck on Mariner Bay Sands.   At over $30, it is a tad expensive, but once there, it's hard to stop taking photos, and you can buy drinks at a reasonable price, and watch other tourist take a lot of posing selfies.   It is good to get to the top of one of the most iconic buildings in the world, so I do recommend it.

That's all for now! 

Updates:

*  try the Toast Box franchise for kaya toast breakfast ($6.20 for two eggs, one biggish cup of coffee and the kaya toast) or a large of other modestly priced eating for lunch.   I thought it better than the Ya Kun Kaya Toast chain.

*  Katong has several multilevel shopping centres, but the largest is on the south side of Marina Parade MRT station and is called Parkway Parade.   And right beside the entry to it is an old area of "local" shops that your often find around HDB areas - a hawker centre, and thrift style shops, fruit and snack shops etc.   It thus features both styles of Singaporean shopping in a very compact area.  

 

   

Ultra processed?

I've been meaning to say this for ages:   categorising foods as "ultra processed" has always sounded a bit vague, almost a tad faddish (like "high protein" appearing on every third item in the supermarket).   But perhaps I'm wrong, and there is some clear definition somewhere?  

Even if there is, I have this suspicion that it's too broad to be useful.  I mean, shouldn't they be looking more carefully at what makes it "ultraprocessed" that could be the core of the problem?   Preservatives or other chemicals that feature prominently in such foods to ensure their longer shelf life, for example?  

Anyway, such thoughts are prompted by this article in the Guardian, pointing the finger at ultra processed food for the rise in younger people getting colon cancer:

One factor keeps emerging as a major culprit: ultra-processed foods, with a 2025 review in Nature Reviews Endocrinology highlighting the links. These foods, roughly defined as factory-packaged snacks, ready meals, sugary cereals, soft drinks, processed meats and many fast foods, now make up more than half the average diet in countries such as the UK and US.

The evidence is growing: a major study published in the British Medical Journal looked at three large US cohorts to examine the association of ultra-processed foods with the risk of colorectal cancer. One of these cohorts involved more than 46,000 men, tracked over 24 to 28 years. Compared with the group that consumed ultra-processed food the least, the risk of those who consumed the most of developing colorectal cancer – even accounting for nutrition and weight – was 29% higher. The authors conclude that further studies are needed to understand the physiological mechanisms of how exactly ultra-processed foods contribute to cancer development. 

Now that I think of it - wouldn't it be funny if it turned out that adding protein powder to everything was actually the explanation!