Alan needs to talk to more people about fusion

I really like the ABC's finance guy Alan Kohler, but he really shows inadequate skepticism in this article about the prospects for fusion power.   For example:

...there are two Australian outfits in the thick of it: super fund Hostplus and a small private company based in Sydney called HB11.

Hostplus has invested $330 million for a 4 per cent stake in the Boston company that is generally seen as leading the race to commercial fusion in the United States: Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS). 

I would be swapping super funds fast if I know mine was investing in fusion start ups!

Hostplus's chief investment officer Sam Sicilia (who has a PhD in theoretical physics as well as a master of applied finance), told me last week that "This is the biggest potential change in the world's energy mix that we have seen in our lifetime."

He reckons CFS could be a US$1 trillion company, which would make it easily Hostplus's biggest investment.

"We're looking at fusion as clean energy and … infinite power forever. That's what's at stake here.

He went on: "[The] timeframe is now down to five years and we can see the progress that's been made in the fusion field, we can see the high temperature super conducting magnets that have been produced to hold a very, very hot plasma...

 Alan then goes on to talk about an Australian company proposing the laser path to fusion.  But look at this:

An Australian company, HB11, says it is leading the world in using lasers, and is currently building a prototype in Adelaide, which is apparently one of the best places in the world for lasers.

The company is still mainly owned by the two scientists who started it, CEO Warren McKenzie and 94-year-old Professor Heinrich Hora, as well as some early investors who have funded their work.

Chief operating officer Greg Ainsworth told me they were building a business around high-powered lasers that could shoot down a military drone from about 3 kilometres away, to help fund the work on fusion energy.

He says HB11 expects to have a pilot plant generating fusion electricity in the 2030s. 

I'm sorry, I'm well on the path towards old age myself, but I just find it very hard to believe that a 94 year old is going to be making any key contribution to this.  And the 2030's are barely 5 years away. An estimate of power being generated by fusion within 5 to 15 years is just fanciful.

Sabine Hossenfelder did a skeptical take on these start up claims recently - and previously I think even she has sounded to easily convinced that fusion is the way of the future.  (She still believes it will eventually work - but I have my doubts she has looked into the technical and engineering challenges all that carefully.)