Waiting for disasters

It's felt a little odd, listening to how the current El Nino is blowing all previous ones out of the water, so to speak, but without yet a lot of weather disasters being attributed to it.   

This week Zeke Hausfather had an article at Nature with some predictions for areas that will be worst affected.  Unfortunately, it is behind a paywall, but he did post some of the illustrations on his X account.  So, here is this:

Things look very dire for Indonesia and the Amazon for drought.  And Indonesia has already been burning up (literally).   This is part of what Zeke says before the paywall comes down:

 Some impacts are already visible. Rainfall is declining across Indonesia, boosting the risk of peatland fires. During the 1997 El Niño, Indonesian fires emitted an estimated 3–9 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to roughly 13–40% of global fossil-fuel emissions that year. Fires and haze resulting from the 2015 El Niño were linked to around 100,000 excess deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

(In Singapore, maybe its from the increased smoke and haze - I'm not sure?)

It looks like current modelling isn't showing any firm prediction for most of Australia.   That would be good.   South East Queensland is starting to look a bit dry though.  

Anyway, it seems virtually certain that there will be climate disasters due to this, and it is just a matter of time.