Getting rid of CO2

Well, here's another post where I just go about educating myself, and you can follow along if you wish.

It would seem that the problem with "clean coal technology" is not likely to be the CO2 capture part. The CSIRO seems particularly optimistic about this, talking about retrofitting capture devices to existing power stations. The National Energy Technology Laboratory in the US seems fairly upbeat about it as well:

Carbon capture and sequestration begins with the separation and capture of CO₂ from power plant flue gas and other stationary CO₂ sources. At present, this process is costly and energy intensive, accounting for the majority of the cost of sequestration. However, analysis shows the potential for cost reductions of 30–45 percent for CO₂ capture. Post-combustion, pre-combustion, and oxy-combustion capture systems being developed are expected to be capable of capturing more than 90 percent of flue gas CO₂.

For a general background on how coal burning power plants work, the Australian Coal Association gives a good short explanation. There are clearly some efficiencies (and CO2 to be saved) just by using better ways of burning coal, and I suppose getting China and India to use the most efficient methods would at least be a start. But for dramatic reduction of CO2 release, it doesn't look like you can pin too much hope on that.

But back to what to do with the CO2. Geosequestration seems to be the only idea being given serious consideration.

There's a post at Treehugger which gives reasons for being sceptical. Mostly it quotes from tim Flannery, who (despite exaggerating about aspects of global warming) may be onto something here.

It's important to get an idea of the scale of the problem. In the Treehugger post there is an attempt to picture the volume, but as is clear from the comments, it makes a mistake here.

It seems Karl Kruszelnicki made the same mistake in the lead up to the election, but he corrected himself at his blog. As he explains, the correct figure for the volume of CO2 made in Australia by power stations can be roughly calculated as follows:

The daily amount of carbon dioxide emitted from burning coal, when you liquify it, would fill a box 100 metres on a side - not 1,000 metres. And this is from burning coal to supply electricity for all of Australia, not just one of the states or one of the capital cities.

Well, that's an appalling enough figure anyway, isn't it? Every day, even if you captured only half of the CO2, you would still be left (Australia wide) with a volume of liquid CO2 that is 100m square by 50 m high. Seems a hell of lot to be looking to put down a hole somewhere every single day.

The thing is, it's not only the issue of where to put it, but how to get it there. It would seem that both the liquidification process (itself using significant amounts of energy) and its transport would be the really expensive aspects of this; not so much the pumping into the ground. If you were using pipes to move it around as a gas, you have the issues of the years it seems to take to build pipes of any length, and how long the place it eventually gets to can keep taking the gas. I suspect in the United States this may be somewhat less of a problem, as the geography seems more varied over shorter distances than Australia, and as such there might on average be shorter distances to get to useful places to pump the gas into the ground.

Earlier this year, a former head of BHP was quoted as expressing scepticism about its viability from the point of view of public concern about its safety:

Paul Anderson, who ran BHP-Billiton in 2002 and still sits on its board, told the Herald: "People can't believe you're safe putting nuclear waste five miles under the ground when it's petrified in glass. How are they going to feel safe putting pressurised gas under the ground?

"I think it's as big as the issue of nuclear waste. What are you going to do with millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide that is not nearly as compact as nuclear waste?"

So...are there any alternatives to pumping liquid CO2 into the ground?

The comments in that Treehugger post listed above include one promoting Enpro, a Norwegian company which is promoting a process using salty water to convert CO2 into solid sodium carbonate (with clean water as a by-product.) The website is short on detail, and there is no mention of what can be done with the mountains of sodium carbonate this would produce. (There is also the added problem of the source of salty water if your power station is not near the ocean or adequate bore water.) The website claims these appealing features:

Unlike any other solution proposed thus far, EnPro technology:

• Provides a 95% reduction in CO₂ emissions from flue gases.
• Provides a 95% reduction of CO₂ in natural gas.
• Is effective in oil, gas or coal-powered plants.
• Can be retrofitted to existing plants at a reasonable cost.
• Produces commercially valuable by-products.
  (water suitable for industrial use and sodium carbonate etc.)

Given the very significant problems associated with geosequestration, surely anything leaving open the possibility of a solid that can be safely buried is worth looking into in detail.

(By the way, the Enpro site links to the Wikipedia entry on the similar Solvay process, which links to the abstract to a paper which sounds very significant on the issue. Unfortunately, you have to pay for it. But the abstract notes:

Long-term storage of a gaseous substance is fraught with uncertainty and hazards, but carbonate chemistry offers permanent solutions to the disposal problem. Carbonates can be formed from carbon dioxide and metal oxides in reactions that are thermodynamically favored and exothermic, which result in materials that can be safely and permanently kept out of the active carbon stocks in the environment. Carbonate sequestration methods require the development of an extractive minerals industry that provides the base ions for neutralizing carbonic acid.

The Wikipedia entry on carbon sequestration is not as detailed as one might expect.

I doubt that ocean dumping of liquid CO2 is a good idea, and would be seen as a big environmental unknown. (Iron fertilization would seem to me a much safer thing to try.) Pumping CO2 into areas where it is expected to be mineralised in the ground quickly gets mentioned in quite a few places on the Web, but again, you have transport and safety issues to consider.

A Google search shows up a fair few ideas for using carbonate reactions for CO2 sequestration.

Seems to me that, as with pebble reactors, it is an idea that is being pursued rather slowly, but in theory sounds very promising. At some stage, governments may have to start trying to pick winners if this is to be investigated as thoroughly and as quickly as possible.

Blogging slowdown

Still can't find enough time to scan the internet or blog properly. What little news I have seen or heard seems remarkably uninteresting. (ABC Radio National had on the news this morning a report that a Queensland man is to face charges for having unrestrained kids in his car! Hardly earth-shatteringly newsworthy. I think someone in the ABC newsroom must have taken to closing his or her eyes, spinning around three times and using a pin to pick out a story from the Courier Mail.)

Maybe tonight I can troll the internet for something interesting.

Meanwhile, vast international audience, any leads on sites that contain good information on the main "clean coal" technologies under development or research around the world? Pumping it into the ground or ocean seems intuitively to me to be fraught with complications, such as whether it will work particularly well, and finding the locations in which to do it. I would have thought that any process that involved chemical conversion of CO2 might be more reliable and better in the long run, if more expensive.

The talking PM

Fresh from not solving one problem, our PM rushes to not solve another:

Rudd to face indigenous leaders | NEWS.com.au

This is good. Seems to me that PM Rudd is shaping up early as someone who likes to build up hope, and to be seen absolutely everywhere talking to everyone, and then can't deliver.

Greenhouse gas - reduce how exactly?

Over at Slate, there's an interesting article talking about just how "green" are fully electric cars in reality. (Answer: pretty damn green, especially if you live where nuclear power makes your electricity.)

The article made the point that in the US, 49.7% of all electricity is coal generated.

This got me thinking about the Australian situation, and what it means for the range of CO2 reduction which the post-Kyoto Bali conference is talking about.

According to a paper by the WWF (downloadable here,) coal accounts for about 85% of Australian electricity, hydro power is about 8 % (more than I thought) and natural gas is 7%. This Parliamentary Paper from 2000 indicates that the figures are about right: there might be one or two percent of wind, solar and other renewables as this pie chart from the paper (showing the renewable energy components in Australia) indicates:

but really, hydro power is the only truly significant "green" electricity we have at the moment.

As everyone has probably heard, the Bali conference is talking about total emissions reductions of 25 to 40 per cent by 2020. Kevin Rudd is (so far) insisting that he won't be nominating Australia's target just yet. But, even assuming a 30% target is what Rudd settles on, what does this mean for our electricity industry?

According to this recent government paper, close enough to 50% of Australian greenhouse gases come from electricity generation. Transport accounts for 12.5%, about 23 % comes from agriculture and land use, and industrial and waste seems to account for much of the rest.

The paper confirms too that Australia has kept pretty close to the Kyoto target (which still allowed an increase on 1990 emissions) by reducing land clearing. I would guess that further progress that could be made in reducing land clearing is probably getting limited.

As for transport; it's hard to see how a 30% reduction in that sector is likely to be achieved without massive changes over the next 13 years. Maybe a 10 to15% reduction, but remember that whole sector only accounts for 12.5% of total gases now anyway.

So, it would seem, if Australia is to have any hope at all of meeting a 30% reduction within 13 years, the electricity sector is going to have to bear the greatest burden of this change.

Even if renewables made a massive increase from its current 8-9% (nearly all hydro, remember) to 20% (the target Rudd has already set for 2020), and you give natural gas another percent or two, it would still leave about 70% or so of electricity from coal.

Roughly speaking, (and I won't put my back of the envelope figures up in case I have stuffed this up completely), it seems to me that even if you allow for renewables at 20% of all electricity, you would still have to have about half of your coal as "clean" coal for the energy sector to be able to come close to accounting for the bulk of the total target of a 30% reduction in CO2.

My suspicion, based on European experience (see some of my earlier posts) is that even with massive investment, renewables at 20% is very, very improbable by 2030. I also suspect that having about one half of all coal power stations operating at zero emissions by 2030 is very, very improbable. Quite frankly, no one knows how well CO2 sequestration will work. People do know that nuclear does not make CO2.

My points:

1. Australia's extremely high reliance on coal makes it exceptionally difficult for it to meet a target even towards the lower end of the range that the UN says Australia should have in 13 years from now.

2. Those countries that have or will develop large proportions of nuclear power in their electricity generating mix have a task that is very significantly easier.

3. People in Australia don't understand this yet.

The patron saint for me

Expeditus

Back soon.

Two days

OK, you all want me to have money to spend over Christmas don't you?

Then I have to spend a couple of days doing bills. A self imposed internet browsing ban is needed, or a donation of $10,000 or so. No? Thought so.

Back in a couple of days....

Here's a treat for you

This is the Pixar UFO short "Lifted" which was shown this year with Ratatouille. Enjoy!

England's rubbery figures

UK's official CO2 figures an illusion

Britain is responsible for hundreds of millions more tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions than official figures admit, according to a new report that undermines UK claims to lead the world on action against global warming.

The analysis says pollution from aviation, shipping, overseas trade and tourism, which are not measured in the official figures, means that UK carbon consumption has risen significantly over the past decade, and that the government's claims to have tackled global warming are an "illusion".

Under Kyoto, Britain must reduce its greenhouse gas output to 12.5% below 1990 levels by 2012. According to official figures filed with the UN, Britain's emissions are currently down 15% compared with 1990.

But the new report says UK carbon output has actually risen by 19% over that period, once the missing emissions are included in the figures.

A peculiar case from Aurukun

Girl, 10, 'probably agreed' to sex | NEWS.com.au

I suspect this story will have some legs.

A female judge in Cairns gives what appears to be very, very lenient treatment to a bunch of aboriginal men who had sex with a 10 year old girl. The fact that it was apparently consensual is cited by the judge, as is the fact that the prosecutor apparently did not ask for any more severe penalty than suspended jail.

As the report notes:

News of the non-custodial sentences has added to the violent hatreds that exist in Aurukun between families and tribes and which have played a part in recent brawls involving dozens of assailants, many armed with sticks and spears.

Further evidence that lack of facilities at Aurukun is very far from the whole story as to why the place is in social disarray.

Go Nuclear

Greenpeace is wrong — we must consider nuclear power - Opinion

Controversial ex-Greenpeace co-founder Patrick Moore sets out his view that Greenpeace must change its anti-nuclear stance if it wants to be serious about reducing CO2.

Way to encourage Australian culture

Miller attacks Howard in acceptance speech

From the first part of this report, Australian director George Miller says:

"We've seen over many years the utter emasculation of the ABC, the vitality sucked out of our universities as places of true learning and it just doesn't make any sense,"

"We're a very small country and we have very little culture distinct enough to call it our own, so why should we have a war about it?

"It's as ridiculous as bald men fighting over a comb, when we should be out there trying to grow hair."

I'll quickly brush over the fact that ABC TV, and Australian produced TV drama and comedy generally, just had a great ratings year, and move onto the question of what George is doing to help prevent the destruction of Australian culture:

His next project will be directing Justice League of America.

Cool car

Cars - Reviews - Honda FCX Clarity

The New York Times reviews a production ready (sort of) Honda fuel cell car. It sounds and looks very cool, even if precise cost is never really discussed. (They're not going to sell it, just lease it.)

Orchestra to follow

Well, Astroboy had a robot circus. A robot orchestra would be something I would pay to see. I think.

Maybe she's nuts

'I was terrified that the guards would come in and teach me a lesson' | UK News | The Observer

This report gives more details on how Gillian Gibbons (the English teacher jailed in Sudan for letting a teddy bear be named Mohammed) was treated.

Some highlights:

The open-air cell had three grey-tiled walls, a basic squat toilet in a corner and steel bars running across the facade and ceiling. 'I just stood there for three hours, thinking I was going home. It was filthy, there were ants all over the floor and in the corner there were rat droppings. There was a light shining into my yard that attracted all the mosquitoes, so I stood there and got bitten to death....

In a moment of almost farcical surreality, the teddy bear itself made a courtroom appearance. 'This clerk of the court got this carrier bag and produced this bear with a flourish, like a rabbit out of the hat,' Gibbons recalls. 'He put it down on the table in front of us and it flopped over, and the prosecution [lawyer] sat him up. And then he pointed at this bear in a dead aggressive manner and he said "Is this the bear?" It was Exhibit A, you see.

Her reaction sounds rather normal and understandable for the most part, until we get to the end of the article:

She retains a remarkable lack of rancour about her ordeal and hopes to take up another foreign teaching post, possibly in China. 'I don't regret a second of it. I had a wonderful time. It was fabulous.'

Does she blame anyone for what she went through? She pauses. 'I blame myself because I shouldn't have done it,' she says finally. 'Ignorance of the law is no defence.'

She sounds either like a particularly easy target for Stockholm Syndrome, or just a chronically self-blaming liberal.

And in this corner...(the battle of the fantasies)

There's a lot of attention being given in the to the new movie "The Golden Compass" and its source material: Phillip Pullman's "His Dark Materials" trilogy.

Pullman has famously been quoted as saying of CS Lewis' Narnia series:

"a peevish blend of racist, misogynistic and reactionary prejudice" and "not a trace" of Christian charity.

"It's not the presence of Christian doctrine I object to so much as the absence of Christian virtue," he added.

"The highest virtue - we have on the authority of the New Testament itself - is love, and yet you find not a trace of that in the books."

I don't say that the Narnia series is the greatest literature ever written, but that's just really silly commentary.

Readers may recall that I liked the movie version of The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe very much. I recently watched it again, and my fondness has not diminished. If you dip into the lengthy set of user comments at IMDB, you will see that many folk agree. The public reaction seems to have been even better than a pretty good critical reaction, perhaps because it had a largely self-selecting Christian audience. (Of course, an emotional appreciation of Christianity no doubts helps one to be moved by the story. But hey, I am not stopping your conversion for better movie appreciation!)

Teenage (and older) LOTR tragics complained it was a poor imitation of Tolkien; I say that unlike that interminable writer, Lewis at least had real characters and a point.

So, of course, it gives me some pleasure to see the first movie of anti-Lewis Pullman's series get a lukewarm critical and box office reception.

All the critics say that the movie has largely been stripped of the anti-religion element; most people seem to also say that this will be virtually impossible to maintain if movies are attempted from the subsequent books.

As this article (in The Atlantic, so it must be true) notes, Pullman's stories ultimately have teen sex (or at least sexual awakening) saving the universe. (This reminds of the first Star Trek movie, which Pauline Kael - I think - said was notable as science fiction that ended not with a bang, but with a bang.) For a conservative's rebuttal of such an implausible take on sexuality, see here.

In the meantime, Prince Caspian, the next Narnia movie, is due out in 6 months or so, and its trailer has been released with some fanfare. It sounds as if the movie is not as close to the novel this time, and perhaps has been more Tolkien-ified than I would like, but here's hoping.

UPDATE: here's a very lengthy interview with Pullman, and it turns out we agree on one thing - Tolkien:

"I dislike his Narnia books because of the solution he offers to the great questions of human life: is there a God, what is the purpose, all that stuff, which he really does engage with pretty deeply, unlike Tolkien who doesn't touch it at all. ‘The Lord of the Rings' is essentially trivial. Narnia is essentially serious, though I don't like the answer Lewis comes up with. If I was doing it at all, I was arguing with Narnia. Tolkien is not worth arguing with."

Hospitals

I've just spent most of the last couple of days with my son at the Mater Childrens' Hospital in Brisbane. (He had a minor procedure that had a bit of a complication. Everything OK now, thanks.)

Some observations about the Mater Hospital, and hospitals in Brisbane generally:

* I don't know whether it is because Brisbane's population continues to grown, but all hospitals here just seem to be in a continual state of construction/re-construction. Is it like this in every other Australian city?

* Of the few Brisbane hospitals I have visited for various reasons over the last few years, The Wesley is perhaps the nicest inside. It is, of course, having major building works at the moment.

* I don't know about nursing. There are complaints about their pay all the time, and the shift work would be a pain, but how come they all seem happy to me?

* From their website, I see that The Mater group of hospitals provides care for "some half million people a year." Even with 7 hospitals and 6,000 staff, that seems a hell of a lot of care.

* The Mater also has a new "high definition" operating theatre which sounds like it would be interesting to look at. If you can have public tours of breweries, movie studios and chocolate factories, why can't hospitals do this too for a bit of extra cash on the side on a Saturday or Sunday when the highest paid surgeons are off too. OK, maybe it's just me who be happy to do that.

Not the whole story

Welfare is not the key - Opinion - theage.com.au

Philip Martin writes here about the recent riots in the remote aboriginal community of Aurukun. He knows more about the place than the average commentator:

The research I collected over six months living in Aurukun while working for Pearson's Cape York Partnerships showed that Aurukun is chronically under-resourced in infrastructure and services. This is a source of major community frustration and a key factor in its social breakdown.

As it happens, I know a little about the place as well, due to having relatives who have worked there up to very recent times.

Martin lists the ways in which the community is under-resourced, and concludes with the line that "If there was so much infrastructure missing in Sydney, there would be public insurrection."

This is disingenuous, I think, as the whole resourcing issue has cultural aspects too, and devolved into a bit of a chicken and egg unresolvable problem.

I believe, for example, that the community had a brand new pool and sports centre built some years ago. (Great idea: aboriginal communities with pools have cleaner kids, and less disease.) I am not sure how long it lasted, but I understand the place was trashed and has not been in use since.

Martin notes the chronic over-crowding in some houses. He doesn't mention the custom there that if someone dies, the house has to be left vacant for a number of months and have a special ceremony before it is re-occupied. I don't know how many houses this may affect at any one time, but it surely would account for at some of the cases of over-crowding in remaining houses.

He also notes the lack of trademen to fix things such a broken pipes. He says there is no Centrelink office there to help people get "real jobs".

Well, just how many "real jobs" are ever going to be available there, I wonder. I don't know anything special about this for Aurukun, but it does puzzle me as to why remote communities cannot at least invest enough money in training a few locals to be able to do relatively straight-forward housing maintenance work (and pay for a basic supply of repair material).

Martin mentions packs of wild dogs roaming the streets. I do know that a white council worker's house got stoned after the council paid a vet to come in and put down some of these dogs. The locals can be very attached to their dogs, no matter how sick and scrangy they are.

The health clinic has had 50% drop in permanent staff. Yes, but of course it is hard to get staff to agree to work in a community that seems to be permanently on the edge of a riot, and does not show signs of appreciating the white staff who do work there.

Martin says the community needs 16 full time police. This is for a community of about 1,100 people! I think he should acknowledge that the huge disproportionate number of police that such communities need compared to white communities, as this helps account for the difficulties State governments have in providing such staff.

My relative says at the core of the problem is the complete breakdown of respect of young people towards their parents and elders. I don't know how that is cured, but there is no real indication a big influx of resources is going to cure that chronic problem.

Odd customs of Greece

Mad about the boy | Review | Guardian Unlimited Books

Yet again, a historian has a go at trying to work out the exact nature of same-sex love in ancient Greece.

Peter Davidson has a whole book just out about this, and this article is written by him too, presumably summarising some of his main points.

His goal is amusingly stated as:

So how do we begin to make sense of this truly extraordinary historical phenomenon, an entire culture turning noisily and spectacularly gay for hundreds of years?

Part of the answer is to note that:

"Ancient Greece" was in fact a constellation of hundreds of rivalrous micro-states, with their own calendars, dialects and cults - and their own local versions of Greek homosexuality. These revealed very different attitudes and employed very different practices: "We Athenians consider these things utterly reprehensible, but for the Thebans and Eleans they are normal."

The Cretans seem to have made a big production of it:

The "peculiar custom" of the Cretans...involved an abduction and a tug-of-war over a boy, a two-month-long hunting expedition, lavish gifts, the sacrifice of an ox and a great sacrificial banquet, at which the boy formally announced his acceptance or not of "the relationship". Thereafter he got to wear a special costume that announced to the rest of the community his new status as "famed".

In a review of this book, it is noted that at one stage at least:

In Athens, for which we have the widest range of evidence, both visual and literary, the ephebe - or young male aged eighteen to twenty - emerged from the naked sports of the gymnasium to find himself pursued by a lover; the ideal of chaste resistance and decorous pursuit was not always adhered to, but the resulting bonding often lasted a lifetime, through marriage and political careers.

Davidson writes:

In Athens these under-18s were vigorously protected, rather like the young women in a Jane Austen novel, although their younger sisters would have been expected to be married by the age of 15. These were the Boys who were escorted to the gymnasium by the slave paidagogoi and followed around at a distance by a pack of admirers. "A guard of his honour" is how one source describes it, trying to explain the contradictory custom.

It all makes Schoolies week seem pretty tame by comparison!

Davidson notes that the habits of the Greeks were well known:

The Romans certainly noticed what they called the "Greek custom", which they blamed on too much exercising with not enough clothes on.

I don't know what lesson anyone can take from reading about this: even those who have very liberal views today of same sex relationships would presumably have something of a problem with a society in which middle aged men more-or-less ritualistically pursue 18 year old boys who take their fancy. The fact is sexual customs in Athens and other Greek places were very idiosyncratic, even for other societies around them.

And my modern day question is this: why does England seem so gay now?

The fur solution

Comment is free: Bear to hear the truth you've spoken

George Monbiot finally gets really serious about climate change issues:

I am sitting on top of an excavator the size of a house, dressed as a polar bear. In a world that's gone mad this is the only sane thing left to do.

It impresses the kiddies, at any rate.

Meanwhile, one of the comments following that post points to another reasonable sounding report that the sun's sunspot activity cycle really may be at the start of the same protracted low which happened during the "little ice age":

Astronomers are watching the Sun, hoping to see the first stirrings of cycle 24. It should have arrived last December. The United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted it would start in March 2007. Now they estimate March 2008, but they will soon have to make that even later. The first indications that the Sun is emerging from its current sunspot minimum will be the appearance of small spots at high latitude. They usually occur some 12-20 months before the start of a new cycle. These spots haven't appeared yet so cycle 24 will probably not begin to take place until 2009 at the earliest. The longer we have to wait for cycle 24, the weaker it is likely to be. Such behaviour is usually followed by cooler temperatures on Earth.

It would indeed be a nice co-incidence if the sun's reduced activity gave civilisation a century or so to move to low greenhouse energy, and perhaps even remove some of what is already there.

Ken leads the charge

Australia can lead the way on climate - Opinion - theage.com.au

Kenneth Davidson tells us how important it is for Australia to commit to really serious greenhouse gas cuts. He doesn't say it directly, but notes that developed countries will have to cut emissions by at least 90% by 2050! (That is, to keep temperature increases to within 1.5 degrees.)

How can this massive figure be achieved? Ken starts with the far from obvious:

Here in Victoria the authorities might think twice about the Port Phillip channel deepening to avoid facilitating sea-level rises and tidal surges

Does that make any sense? How would not deepening the Port Phillip Bay channel prevent local sea level rise?

Ken claims that public opinion is way ahead of the politicians on climate change. I say that is only because no one, including Ken, has yet told the public how incredibly hard big greenhouse reductions will be.

Changing Japan

In Japan, Rural Economies Wane as Cities Thrive - New York Times

This article about the economic changes in Japan from the point of view of how it is affecting different regions makes for interesting reading.

It is true, as the article notes, that many smaller towns in Japan have old town centres which are stuggling due to new shopping malls in the nearby suburbs.

The thing is, Australian and other Western cities saw this same change from about the 1960's. But, over the years, many of the older small shop precincts have adapted and are again pleasant places to be.

In Japan, they are not so used to letting the market sort out such things.

The other point to make about the article is that it seems peculiar when talking about the decline of Japanese small towns to ignore the really fundamental issue for the future of the country: its rapidly aging population that is failing to reproduce or to accept reasonable levels of migration.

A danger for Turnbull....

Unleashed: An honourable, fidgetty, humanist Liberalism

This could be a very bad sign for Malcolm Turnbull: Bob Ellis likes him!

This column by Ellis starts off with a prediction (the Liberal Party will disappear from history) which Ellis claims is supported by his uncanny election predictive powers:

You mark my words. I predicted a Labor majority of twenty-eight or thirty and it's twenty-four, and I was right about every state.

Actually, Bob, the result is now predicted to be Labor 83 seats, Coalition 65, and 2 independents. A majority of less than 20, it would seem.

In any event, I actually recommend this article by Ellis, despite his typically overwrought style, because of the potted history it gives of Turnbull's past political friendships.

Of course, given that it is written by a recent loser in a political defamation case (a point Ellis himself raises here), you can probably take much of it with a grain of salt, but it's interesting nonetheless.

As a footnote, maybe it's just me, but that photo of his is such a posed attempt at basset hound charm that it just makes me want to slap him about the face a bit.

More Jesus talk

Comment is free: Jesus: Messiah or Bolshevik?

Is Terry Eagleton getting more conservative in his old age?

I know little about him except what I have read in Wikipedia. He is mainly known as a Marxist (or now just very Left-ist) Catholic literary critic.

Yet his recent attack on Richard Dawkins did not really show the signs of what I normally expect from very liberal Christianity (ie, a belief in nothing really metaphysical at all.)

Anyway, his piece above in the Guardian talking about the way to understand Jesus as a political figure seems pretty reasonable to me.

(It still doesn't really address the issue as to whether he is a realist or non-realist when it comes to the supernatural, but I have to give him credit for sounding like a relatively sensible lefty Catholic.)

He's not the Messiah

I can unite world on climate, says Rudd - Environment - smh.com.au

Unfortunately, it appears that headline is not a direct quote from our PM, just a paraphrase. That's a pity, as it would be quite funny for Kevin to start making silly grandiose statements so early in his Prime Minister-ship.

I note that Penny Wong is credited with having performed well in the election campaign, hence her reward of being made Climate Change Minister. (Sounds like it's her job to ensure climate changes happens.)

I don't know. I thought in any media appearances I have noticed she comes across as too earnest and humourless. Especially after her election night turn on the ABC, I can warm to Julia Gillard more readily, in the personality stakes anyway.

Penny has apparently received a fair bit of attention in reporting in China, but it is probably safe to assume this has not included details of her personal life yet. It will be interesting to see how (if ever) this is reported in Chinese media.

Back to Kyoto: this report in the Australian today did the useful service of explaining the issue of penalties under Kyoto in precise form. (I had become confused as to whether they really were a risk to any country.) Apparently not, is the answer:

experts outside the negotiating process think it is highly unlikely the UN will enforce the Kyoto caps because too many countries would be forced to pay up.

Deloitte emissions trading expert Lorraine Stephenson said a permit for each tonne of carbon over the limit would cost about $30 on current markets, putting Australia's potential Kyoto bill at up to $150 million.

That would be dwarfed by the bills facing other major industrialised countries such as Canada and Japan, which have already exceeded the targets they committed to when they ratified the protocol a decade ago.

On current projections, Canada would be required to pay about $6.8 billion to offset its projected 38 per cent blowout of its target. Japan would face a bill of about $4billion for being 10per cent over the limit.

European nations such as Greece and Ireland will avoid expensive Kyoto bills because the European Union will aggregate its total emissions.

The EU is expected to meet its target thanks to the inclusion of eastern Germany and the closure of the British coal industry in 1990, the baseline year for setting targets.

So, our risk of losing money is low. The risk of other countries worrying about missing targets is also low.

The effect of this treaty is that everyone agreed to try really, really hard. Many countries failed, by such a margin that they can't realistically be penalised.

But it's the symbolism! Yeah, great.

Supposedly, the great benefit of Australia signing is to be directly involved in fresh negotiations now. Well, what about the USA? Is it just being given "observer status" because it hasn't ratified. I don't think so. It has to be involved for there to be any meaningful outcome.

Regardless of what the Liberal leadership may now say, I still stick to my line that giving supremacy to the symbolism over the practical outcome is actually the thing that deserves cynicism.

Stupid ways to promote Green

Earthrace: the green machine - Telegraph

This is, to make an understatement, counter-intuitive:

Earthrace is not your standard petrol-guzzling powerboat. Its jaw-dropping looks have already earned it the unofficial mantle of the world's coolest boat, but it is also one of the greenest. Fuelled by biodiesel and made with environmentally friendly products, it has on-board recycling and all its carbon emissions are offset. But forget images of sandal-wearing sailors and lentil soup. This boat's performance in the water is what turns the petrol heads on. With its 13,000-litre fuel tanks it can travel halfway round the world at speeds of up to 40 knots....

What better way to prove the viability of "green" fuels that produce 78 per cent less carbon emissions than by smashing the decade-old record set by Britain's Ian Bosworth, who circumnavigated the globe in 75 days on the petrol-guzzling Cable & Wireless boat?

Err, how about by not worrying at all about how fast a small-ish boat can circumnavigate the globe, whether or not it is using biodiesel?

And it's not just CO2 that the biofuel is spewing out:

"It averages about 85 decibels at cruising speed. Without earplugs the crew would go deaf," Bethune explained matter-of-factly.

Bethune may also be certifiable, by the sounds of this:

Any doubts about Bethune's commitment were dispelled when it emerged that he recently had liposuction and converted the extracted fat into biodiesel. However before you think that cosmetic surgery might save the planet, it only produced 100ml of fuel.

Hmmm. Maybe if I save all my urine for 5 years and dry it out, I'll have enough urea to mix with biodiesel to make enough explosive to sink the noisy boat of this self-cannibalising wannabe greenie.

Your new moon house

Technology Review: An Inflatable Lunar Habitat

It has a photo too.

A cheery soul

The moral agent | Review | Guardian Unlimited Books

It must be literary night here at OD. See the link above for a long article on Joseph Conrad.

I had liked Typhoon (a short novella) which was in a high school book, and many years later read Lord Jim. Although I finished it, it certainly put me off him as a novel writer. His writing style is just incredibly dense, although at first I thought that this might be my fault for being too wedded to "easy" reading.

But no, according to the article, he was even heavy going for his readers when he was alive. HG Wells wrote a review in which he described Conrad's style as being:

"like river-mist; for a space things are seen clearly, and then comes a great grey bank of printed matter, page upon page, creeping round the reader, swallowing him up".

As I recall, "Lord Jim" is supposed to be a tale told around a table in one night. Many reviewers must have found this an unbelievable conceit, as the edition I read included a foreword by Conrad claiming that this criticism was unfair, and you really could tell the tale in one night. (Maybe, if you are in polar regions in winter.)

Anyhow, the article shows that Conrad was the nervous type whose cynical, modernistic view of the world is summed up by this extract from a letter to a friend:

Life knows us not and we do not know life - we don't even know our own thoughts. Half the words we use have no meaning whatever and of the other half each man understands each word after the fashion of his own folly and conceit. Faith is a myth, and beliefs shift like mists on the shore; thoughts vanish; words, once pronounced, die; and the memory of yesterday is as shadowy as the hope of tomorrow.

Yes, well. Joseph certainly sounds like the last person on earth his mates would have thought about inviting out for a few drinks and a yarn. If he got anywhere near a gin bottle, they would've had to make sure sharp objects were out of reach of his wrists.

No stopping him

The end of the affair and beyond | The Australian

There were reviews in the weekend press about a newly published collection of letters by sex mad author Graham Greene. This excerpt made me laugh:

His promiscuity, which his editor suggests was "often made utterly unmanageable by bipolar illness", added to that restlessness and led inevitably to the end of his relationship with Vivien (although they never divorced). Greene as sex addict does not figure strongly in these letters. But in his exhaustive (and, at 2251 pages, exhausting) authorised biography of Greene, Norman Sherry annexes a list of 47 favourite prostitutes scribbled down by Greene in 1948 when his mistress Catherine Walston challenged him about rumours that he paid women for sex.

And that was only his favourite prostitutes.

It sounds like a clear case of "too much information" being delivered to his mistress:

"Graham, are the rumours true? Have you been paying a woman for sex? What is her name?"

"I confess dear, I have needs. Her name is Hazel, but only on Mondays. Tuesdays and Wednesday are Betty. On the first and second Saturday of each month it's Ethel; the third Saturday is Mildred; the Fridays are either with Edith, Beryl or Babbs, depending on who's free; on the 5th and 10th of each month I have regular bookings with Marge, unless she's otherwise engaged, then it's....." etc, etc.

What does Penny Wong think about this?

Eat, drink and be miserable: the true cost of our addiction to shopping

Madeleine Bunting follows the George Monbiot line that, to realistically get to the CO2 reductions required, massive changes to society will be needed. Her last paragraph:

Hearteningly, we know it can be done - our parents and grandparents managed it in the second world war. This useful analogy, explored by Andrew Simms in his book Ecological Debt, demonstrates the critical role of government. In the early 1940s, a dramatic drop in household consumption was achieved - not by relying on the good intentions of individuals (and their ability to act on that coffee-stained pamphlet), but by the government orchestrating a massive propaganda exercise combined with a rationing system and a luxury tax. This will be the stuff of 21st-century politics - something that, right now, all the main political parties are much too scared to admit.

Yes, that makes serious post-Kyoto targets sound attractive, doesn't it?

I am guessing that it will only be a matter of time before we have some greenie group or other seriously promoting sabotage of coal mining or power stations for the greater good of the earth.

I suspect Madeleine is partly right: very serious CO2 reductions can only be achieved with pain. But the problem is, if you bring Western nations' economies to a halt too quickly, it will inhibit the innovation that is needed to help as well.

It's probably nothing that a massive war between the US and China couldn't solve. (Just kidding, you know.)

A cultural note

James Fallows (November 27, 2007) - "The" way vs "a" way (Japan v China dept)

Found this via Japundit. It involves a funny sort of comparison between China and Japan.

When surgeons fight

Isn't it a little odd that, at opposite ends of the country, we currently have cases of feuding surgeons causing major problems for hospital administration?

Of course, we also have the case of Dr Patel, the surgeon who just wouldn't stop, to deal with soon, as well as action against the hospital administrator for not acting on complaints about Patel faster.

Surgeons are a worry.

Things your priest gets up to on holiday

Guns, porn oust priest | Herald Sun

A very strange story of an Adelaide priest who (allegedly!) has been carrying guns in Afghanistan and collecting what sounds like gay porn on his computer.

I see that he got a mention in a SMH article earlier this year:

Father Tony Pearson, a Catholic priest who allows Shiite Hazaras in Adelaide to hold their annual Moharram ceremony on church premises, says the isolation and uncertainty of the temporary protection visa system has ravaged the morale of Australia's small Afghan community. ....

"When Afghans are given a fair go, the vast majority are found to be hardworking and moderate in their view of Islam," Pearson says. "But our Government chose to make an example of them to deter others. Some victims of that policy have suffered grave and unnecessary psychological damage."

Another paper reports:

Prior to voluntarily standing down, Father Pearson was heavily involved in the Archdiocese of Adelaide's Aboriginal Catholic Ministry and the Otherway Centre in Pirie St as chaplain. He is a frequent traveller to Afghanistan, having visited the country up to six times in recent years.....

"Tony Pearson's trips to Afghanistan have been private trips, in his own time and funded by him. Consequently, there has been no requirement or obligation for him to advise the church in respect of them," she said.

I wonder what will happen if his hosts in Afghanistan find out about the photos on his computer?

I am also curious as to how the Catholic church works out holidays for priests, at a time when everyone knows there are not enough to go around.

Window cleaning in Japan

Polishing a paradox high up in the sky | The Japan Times Online

Just a nice article about what it is like to do high rise window cleaning in Tokyo.

Unfortunately, this crew appears to have some sort of code of ethics which prevents them answering the most obvious question:

"Lots of people wave," Yamamoto said. And do they wave back?

"If people wave at us, we wave back. Otherwise we don't look at what's happening inside."

Now they were warming up a little I tried asking again — this time about things they've seen inside other buildings.

"We've seen things that it wouldn't be appropriate to say," said Yamamoto, tantalizingly. Alas, he would be drawn no further.

The full Nelson

Knowing the full Nelson - Opinion - theage.com.au

Jason Koutsoukis gives a good explanation of why Brendan Nelson cannot be taken seriously.

Post-election wrap ups

* Amongst all the triumphalism of Alan Ramsey's column this morning (he had to get an election result right eventually), there is a funny quote useful for all who dislike Brendan Nelson:

John Stone, a former National Party Senate leader, was moved to say of Nelson: "He reminds me of Andrew Peacock without the substance."

* Michael Duffy casts a cynical eye over professional political punditry generally. (I think he has written about this research before, hasn't he?, but it's good to be reminded.)

* Greg Sheridan is probably the first columnists to put a bit of blame on Costello and him supporters for doing their bit to undermine Howard's leadership. Fair enough too, I think.

* On Radio National breakfast yesterday, Gerard Henderson was firmly in the "it really was all Howard's fault for not going earlier" camp too. I thought he might be a bit more cautious about this, although it's undeniably true that if Howard was mostly concerned with looking good by leaving while at the height of his powers, he did make a mistake.

The thing that everyone seems to leave out of the equation is whether Costello really could have overcome his famous (if unjustified) unpopularity with the public. Julia Guillard pointed this out on election night: she thought it was fanciful to think Costello could have won it for the Coalition; if anything, she believes he could have made the loss worse.

Sure, Paul Keating managed the trick, but look at the help he had from John Hewson's scaring the horses by talking up a new tax.

Costello versus Rudd would in no way have been the same dynamic.

* I still make the point, however, that the main players in the Coalition are taking the loss with a relatively high degree of grace. The press this morning has the headline "Howard's fault: Costello." Well, it is the implication of what Peter is saying, but you really have to watch or read the interview to see that he certainly does not seem bitter and twisted about it.

* Finally, you would have to have a hard heart not to be moved by the video summary of Matt Price's funeral that is on News.com this morning. Brought a tear to my eye, that's for sure.

Incidentally, has anyone else noticed that Tim Blair seems not to have commented on Price's death on his blog? Seems peculiar. (Speaking of Blair, his post-election column is pretty good.)

Worth a look

ABC TV: Captain Cook

I kept forgetting it was on, but from what I did see, the 4 part documentary about Cook which recently ran on ABC was very good.

I did see most of the last episode, about his ill-fated final voyage. I didn't realise how strangely Cook behaved on that trip, or how the reason for this is still only a matter of speculation.

I recommend watching it if it is repeated soon.

Class Act

Lateline - ABC

Peter Costello gave a fine performance on Lateline tonight. The transcript is not up yet, but you can watch the video already.

He does not give any impression of a man who will be caught up in extended bitterness over what could have been. Disappointed, sure, but not full of bile and bitterness.

The difference between how John Howard and Peter Costello have handled the election defeat, compared to Keating and Latham, is remarkable. (It's true that on the Labor side, Kim Beazley was a good loser, but he seemed a bit too comfortable in that role for the good of the Party!)

Self explanatory

Oh.. my... God

Before I get to the main point, while I type this I can see Shirley Bassey on TV performing at the 2005 Royal Variety concert from England.

What gives with Ms Bassey? How old is she? It feels like she should be about 80, yet she has looked exactly the same for the last 40 years. I can only assume that she is either:

a. some triumph of plastic surgery (but doesn't have the very obvious over-worked looks of many American stars),
b. a singing robot, or
c. she has sold her soul to the Devil.

She is the best preserved ancient singer in the world; she makes Cliff Richard look like a geriatric prune.

OK, I can't avoid the main point now.

What the hell are the parliamentary Liberals thinking?? Did Peter Costello vote for Brendan Nelson as leader just in case he (Peter) has a change of heart and wants to take a stab at leadership in 18 months time?

Does anyone in Australia, anyone at all, think that Nelson will be a better leader than Turnbull. No? I didn't think so....

I can't stand Nelson. Everyone I have heard on the media or in real life talking about Liberal leadership since the election has said they like Turnbull.

The theory that the party really just wants Nelson to hold the seat and take all the punishment of the first couple of years of opposition before they get serious and appoint Turnbull has some merit.

But jeez...do we have to really go through the embarrassment of having the 3rd or 4th rate contender as leader first?

Willing to take bets on this

The party's over and Liberals will soon be history - Opinion - smh.com.au

Steve Biddulph is a psychologist best known for his books on raising children (boys in particular). Makes him sound as if he might be a bit on the conservative side? Ha! His Wikipedia entry shows he lives in Tasmania and helps fund the SievX National Memorial Project. Not conservative markers, to say the least.

In any event, his analysis of the election result (linked above) makes for an erratic read.

First, he claims that the Liberals will die because all Western governments have become "centrist." (Well, both parties moving to centrist positions is true, although I still can't see why you can't have 2 centrist parties with sufficient differentiation to make a contest.)

Second, the environment is the future's big issue. (Possibly true.)

Thirdly, the Western economy may be about to undergo a major collapse, and this was possibly a "good" election to lose. (Possibly true, although his claim that "We are a civilisation in collapse" is a warning sign that his analysis is about to go off the rails.)

Fourthly: in the face of imminent civilisation collapse:

Labor is the right party to manage this.

What? What does he base that on?:

Despite the widespread belief after years of cynical politics that politicians are all the same, Rudd and Gillard are not in power for power's sake. I am willing to stake my 30 years as a psychologist on this, but I think many observers have also come to this conclusion.

LOL! (Especially for Kevin.) But Steve finds them to be altruists pure of heart:

Kevin and Julia, as Australia already calls them, want to make this country a better place for the people in it. In the coming times of deprivation, they have the value systems that will be needed to care for the sudden rise in poverty, stress, and need. They also have the unity.

As opposed to Liberals who, I suppose, want to crush the coming mass of starving enviro-peasants under their heels and send them back to the workhouses again.

No, Steve Biddulph wants us to be more like a fairy tale Europe:

The big lie of Liberal supremacy was economic management. In fact, they knew how to generate income, but not how to spend it. We could have been building what Europe built in this past decade - superb hospitals, bullet trains, schools and training centres, low cost public transport of luxurious quality, magnificent public housing. We pissed it all away on tax giveaways and consumer goods.

Oh come on. I suppose Paris is caught in strikes and riots because everyone decided that perfection could be just a little more perfect?

I don't have time to do the Googling to show the aspects of Europe today that do not compare favourably to Australia under Howard. But you know they are out there.

No Steve is just a Greenie dill after all.

A brief history of hand washing

Our Enemy Hands - New York Times

Sex tourism with a twist

Older white women join Kenya's sex tourists | U.S. | Reuters

Clearly, it's a day for distasteful sex stories:

The white beaches of the Indian Ocean coast stretched before the friends as they both walked arm-in-arm with young African men, Allie resting her white haired-head on the shoulder of her companion, a six-foot-four 23-year-old from the Maasai tribe.

He wore new sunglasses he said were a gift from her.

"We both get something we want -- where's the negative?" Allie asked in a bar later, nursing a strong, golden cocktail.

She was still wearing her bikini top, having just pulled on a pair of jeans and a necklace of traditional African beads.

Bethan sipped the same local drink: a powerful mix of honey, fresh limes and vodka known locally as "Dawa," or "medicine."

She kept one eye on her date -- a 20-year-old playing pool, a red bandana tying back dreadlocks and new-looking sports shoes on his feet.

He looked up and came to join her at the table, kissing her, then collecting more coins for the pool game.

The women in this story are 64 and 56.

Bosses: if you like to live dangerously...

...then bring out this game at the office Christmas party for the boys and girls in Administration to play:

Keep your pants on

It's from Japan, and it's so politically incorrect it's very funny.

If it was to be used at a public service party, there would be enquiries, sackings, appeals and possibly a royal commission.

Yuck factor

Catherine Deveny connects election wins, Kevin Rudd and sex in a way that is just creepy, even if she is trying to be funny.

And was Kevin trying to tell the nation last night that he was a virgin on his wedding night? (Twice he made the quip that "We were in unchartered territory the day before we got married.") Too much information, as they say.

With Lefties feeling relaxed enough to have sex again after 11 years, I am expecting Canberra to turn into something like the court of Charles II. (Except that I assume King Kevin himself will abstain.)

UPDATE: Andrew Bolt's comment on the Kevin Rudd 7.30 Report interview is pretty accurate. Kevin sending his MP's out to do "homework" is just silly, and will not provide the accurate information that a few 'phone calls in each State would probably provide anyway. (What happens if a homeless shelter is not in an Opposition MP's electorate?) It seems almost perversely designed to irritate his own MPs.

Memory block

This is bothering me.

I know that I was somewhere in the last 5 years or so where I found on a shelf an old book which was a memoir written by Winston Churchill's doctor. I spent a bit of time reading interesting sections. I remember that he thought that Winston had a mild heart attack during the War. I remember his talking about attending the leader's conference at at Malta near the end of the war. It was pretty interesting.

But - for the life of me I can't remember where it was that I found the book and had time to read bits of it. I remember being surprised that the book was there at all. It seems in memory that it was accommodation somewhere; but the type of place where there was a bookshelf where past visitors could leave books.

It's just that I don't recall staying in any place like that for years. I don't recall staying anywhere without children interrupting reading for years; but I don't recall the kids being with me. I have been waiting for the memory of where I was to come back, but it is refusing to.

This is not a very interesting post.

Hitchens on Mitt & Mormonism

Mitt Romney needs to answer questions about his Mormon faith. - By Christopher Hitchens - Slate Magazine

Of course, don't expect Hitchens to take kindly to the Mormons; but really, it is a religion that deserves a lot of stick. I like this line in the article:

The Book of Mormon, when it is not "chloroform in print" as Mark Twain unkindly phrased it, is full of vicious ingenuity.

Reading the Koran has much the same effect on me. As I have noted before, these "one author" books just don't believe in good narrative. (OK, I know the Koran has a rather complicated history.)

The God wars

I meant to link to a New York Times article earlier this month which discussed the question of whether famous (and aging) atheist philosophy Antony Flew had really become a theist or not. (The general tone of the article was leaning towards the view that Flew had been manipulated by pro-religionists.)

Here's the article. I recommend reading it first before reading the further useful commentary by one of the people involved over at The Tablet this week. (Linking to The Tablet is often problematic. If you have trouble with that link, try the link in the blogroll at the side.)

A nice day for a walk

Earth keeps Moonwalkers from harm - space - 25 November 2007 - New Scientist Space

Oh good. The Heinlein-ian idea of boy scouts going hiking on the surface of the Moon may be able to happen yet:

Every month brings about seven straight days of relative safety from the flux of energetic charged particles from the sun, as the moon dips through the Earth's magnetic field.

Umm, you can stop getting your face on TV for a little while now, Kevin

My first priority: Rudd - National - smh.com.au

Kevin Rudd turned up at a school again today, to say nothing special except that he really wanted schools to get new computers in a hurry. (Strange how he was shown standing in a room full of computers when he said this.)

What was it that Mark Latham said about Kevin?

UPDATE: I complained during the campaign that Rudd seemed to be making quite a fetish out of computers. (Fetish in the anthropological sense: the Chambers definition is "in primitive societies: an object worshipped for its perceived magical powers.")

Then, in the link above that mentions Mark Latham's assessment of Kevin, it notes that one of Latham's criticisms is that he (Kevin) "never writes anything".

Is it possible that Kevin thinks computers will be the saviour of education because he doesn't use them much himself? Surely he realises how ubiquitous they are in households and schools already. (Admittedly, school equipment is often old, but then again in primary schools they are teaching pretty basic stuff.)

Also: here's a post with the detailed extract of Latham's account of the episode of Rudd crying about his mother's death. In the ABC interview (my previous link), Rudd flatly denies that he cried at all, or made the threats Latham claims. (According to Latham, Rudd was "in a very fragile condition," and is simultaneously crying but still pleading to be made shadow Treasurer!)

If Latham's account is true, it hardly gives me a lot of confidence that we have a new Prime Minister who is ready to take on a lot of pressure.

Someone is not telling the truth, and I would love to know who.

Strange science time...

Have you all missed my posts on strange/weird science? (Presses ear against monitor but hears nothing.) Thought so!

Anyhow, Mild Colonial Boy brought to my attention The Telegraph's version of last week's story that maybe astronomers have caused the early destruction of the universe by looking at it.

It's a curious idea which I don't understand at all. It's only appeal is that it has a certain urban myth, cautionary horror tale character about it. ("And as they led the girl away, they warned her, 'Don't look back. Don't look back..' But she didn't heed the warning...etc".)

The second science story from last week which made no sense at all was this one from Nature, which revisits Schrodinger's cat:

Johannes Kofler and Časlav Brukner ... say that the emergence of the 'classical' laws of physics, deduced by the likes of Galileo and Newton, from quantum rules happens not as objects get bigger, but because of the ways we measure these objects. If we could make every measurement with as much precision as we liked, there would be no classical world at all, they say.

It's not "decoherence" that solves the problem, they say, but simply the fact that measurements are imprecise on the macro scale:

The researchers show that it depends on the precision of measurement. If the measurements are a bit fuzzy, so that we can’t distinguish one quantum state from several other, similar ones, this smoothes out the quantum oddities into a classical picture. Kofler and Brukner show that, once a degree of fuzziness is introduced into measured values, the quantum equations describing an object’s behaviour turn into classical ones.

.....watching ...quantum jumps between life and death for Schrödinger’s cat would require that we be able to measure precisely an impractically large number of quantum states. For a 'cat' containing 10²⁰ quantum particles, say, we would need to be able to tell the difference between 10¹⁰ states – too many to be feasible.

If correct, it is difficult to see what this would mean. Is it fair to say that, if we had the eyes of God, we would all look like fuzzy wavefunction balls, with no clear edge to our bodies at all? (I am sure that all anti-religion scientists would hate that as an image, as it sounds like it is offering a possible explanation for the reality of Reiki healing, or other New Age-y ideas.)

Alternatively, does it mean that any living thing, if its life is dependent on a quantum outcome, is in reality in a type of simultaneous dead and alive state? In the article, they say:

"We prefer to say that they are neither dead nor alive," say Kofler and Brukner, “but in a new state that has no counterpart in classical physics.”

Well, that's as clear as mud then!

My Coalition leadership wish

I have already made the point over at Caz's blog, but I reckon the best Coalition leadership team would be Turnbull and Julie Bishop. (Pity that the Nationals would have to give up their deputy position for that, but geez they are getting increasingly irrelevant, aren't they?)

The earlobes, the earlobes!

Gillard main.jpg (JPEG Image, 300x383 pixels)

Ever since making an off the cuff comment on Saturday night that Julia Gillard seems to have very large earlobes, my site meter has indicated that there have been half a dozen hits here (at least) resulting from Google searches of "Julia Gillard earlobes".

Doesn't that seem odd?

Anyway, proof that I am right can be found in the picture linked above. It seems to show she has 2 piercings in her left lobe at least. I think she could fit a few more in, easily!

UPDATE: Julia is our new PM, and this has caused a sudden upsurge in the number of hits to this blog by people who specifically Google "Julia Gillard earlobes". I can't decide if I should be honoured or disturbed. Anyway, to keep all such visitors happy, I have found the most explicit ear lobe photo of Julia ever. Knock yourselves out:



UPDATE 2: Maybe it was the lighting. Maybe she's been wearing some particularly pendulous earrings lately. But for whatever reason, Julia's earlobes struck me as particularly big on the "Great Debate" tonight. And more and people seem to be noticing, given the hundreds and hundreds who have arrived here via Google searches. Here's a screenshot from tonight:

Flanagan on Howard

Guardian Unlimited | Comment is free | A decade of John Howard has left a country of timidity, fear and shame

Richard Flanagan puts his typical over-the-top slant on the downfall of John Howard:

Howard had promised that Australia would be relaxed and comfortable under his rule, yet this year Australians had become more fearful and suspicious of each other than ever, a state of affairs that Howard's government seemed happy to exploit.

Er, well with all the water gardening murders going on, it's no wonder:

Every mainland capital city now has a water supply crisis so severe that people have been murdered by neighbours for watering gardens.

I think the number of people is precisely "one", isn't it?

Actually, as far as Flanaghan columns go, this one is surprising for actually giving credit that some things he approves of happened under Howard. (Increased immigration, closer ties to Asia, gun laws, the Timor intervention.) Of course, Richard seems to think these happened despite of Howard, not because of him.

Then its back to the bad:

For a decade Howard's power had resided in his ability to speak directly and powerfully to the great negativity at the core of the Australian soul - its timidity, its conformity, its fear of other people and new ideas, its colonial desire to ape rather than lead, its shame that sometimes seems close to a terror of the uniqueness of its land and people.

Yeah, that fits in real well with the list of things you just approved of, doesn't it, you dill.

As you would expect, the big worry for Richard is that Rudd is Howard lite:

Was this Howard's greatest victory: the creation of a Labor party in his own image?

He might be onto something there.

Of course, you can rely on Guardian readers to join in soon with their own horror stories of the True Character of Australia. There aren't many comments yet, but I like this one:

People evaporated off the street.

That must account for the slightly greasy smudges left all across Australian city footpaths. It's all that remains of the evaporated.

In other news...

The New York Times has run a couple of articles indicating that some countries well advanced in the development of wind power are starting to get leery of it:

In the United States, one of the areas most suited for wind turbines is the central part of the country, stretching from Texas through the northern Great Plains — far from the coastal population centers that need the most electricity.

In Denmark, which pioneered wind energy in Europe, construction of wind farms has stagnated in recent years. The Danes export much of their wind-generated electricity to Norway and Sweden because it comes in unpredictable surges that often outstrip demand.

In 2003, Ireland put a moratorium on connecting wind farms to its electricity grid because of the strains that power surges were putting on the network; it has since begun connecting them again.

And in Germany, they are starting to run out of places to put them:

In Germany, where 20,000 wind turbines generate 5 percent of the electricity, advocates say wind will be critical to meeting the government’s goal of generating at least 20 percent of all power from renewable methods by 2020. But the industry’s growth is slowing for a variety of reasons.

Germany is running out of places to put the turbines because of restrictions on the location and height of the devices. And rising raw material prices are making wind farms more expensive to build.

“Under the current circumstances, Germany’s climate protection targets are not achievable,” said Hermann Albers, the president of the German Wind Energy Association.

Remember: Kevin Rudd has promised us the same renewable energy target. Germany has much smaller area over which to send the energy they chose to generate with wind or other renewables, and has been hard at developing it for years. (They also claim they can do it without new nuclear plants.)

I can't see there is a hope in hell that Labor's target is achievable in Australia.

The bad news keeps coming...

Matt Price has died, aged 46. Very, very sad news.

UPDATE: more detail and recollections of friends and colleagues this morning. I noted this too:

It was a measure of the respect that Matt was held in that John Howard took time out during a frantic election campaign last week to visit him at his Mount Hawthorn home.

What a nice gesture. Not reported previously (not that it should have been either,) but still indicates the fundamental decency of the ex PM.

No one saw that coming, did they?

Peter Costello wants the quiet life. So does Downer on Insiders this morning.

Abbott had a bit of a shocker of a campaign. Turnbull is really the only one left.

Sort of appropriate I suppose: relative amateurs for both PM and Opposition. Leader.

One good thing about Kevin Rudd

You only have to draw a round face, cheeks and that chin, and you get something vaguely resembling him. It would have to be the easiest face ever in the history of cartooning.

OK, trust me, I have done better ones than that, but you get the idea.

Speaking of chins, every election night, after staring at Kerry O'Brien's face for 5 hours, I starting wondering about his crater-like chin dimple. It's so round and deep, it looks like it has been surgically enhanced with a donut shaped implant. How on earth does he shave in there?

Election night observations

1. Julia Gillard has been surprisingly non-irritating and pretty gracious on her ABC gig. She seems to have really big ear lobes though.

2. It's a loss, but in terms of seats to gain for Coalition re-election, it's not going to be as big as it was for Rudd.

3. A lot of seats will be very marginal again, it seems.

4. Most undeserving (and puzzling) loss of the night: Mal Brough.

5. Worst possible outcome (no one knows if it is a possibility yet): Greens get balance of power in Senate.

6. Bob Brown is already thinking he can swing his weight around. I can't stand the man, and I think most journalists and mainstream politicians don't hold him and his tactics in high regard either.

7. Prediction: Peter Costello as Opposition Leader will still often trounce Rudd in Parliament. (Rudd is simply not a good parliamentary performer, and this will be exacerbated when he is PM.)

8. Great concession speech by Howard. What's not to like about him as a person? Appears devoid of bitterness, even when defeated by opportunist media tart (s). The contrast with Keating and Latham's post loss behaviour could not be more stark. Didn't dissolve into public self-pitying blubbering like Fraser either.

9. Of course I would say this, but: I expect community disappointment with Rudd within about 18 months. I expect Labor disappointment to start even earlier.

10. I wonder how Rudd's speech will go. Full of blather I expect.

UPDATE: Rudd seems to have decided his winner's speech is a chance to repeat all of his campaign mantras. Yes, indeed, it's lots of blather, and there seems to be a lot of "I, I, I" in it. Robot Rudd seems to fully appreciate that it will be his government.

We got him out of asking himself questions; now will he please stop saying "and you know something?"

Some of the content seems to not be all that enthusiastically greeted by the audience. Maybe some of them will wake up in the morning and say "Oh my God, I just elected a wannabe John Howard."

Ah well, life goes on.

UPDATE 2: was Rudd still working for Premier Goss when he unexpectedly lost? People need to remember that the voters of Queensland are, shall we say, different. Look at how long Bjelke Petersen hung around, and Goss and Peter Beattie's respective electoral loss and win which neither of them deserved.

There is no doubt that Rudd being a Queenslander accounts for a few percentiles of his swing in this State. But history shows Queensland voters are very fickle, and those that voted for him this time cannot be trusted to be "rusted on" even for the next election.

Ever get the feeling she doesn't like Rudd?

Take me to your leader - Ruddbot wired for power - Opinion - smh.com.au

Annabel Crabbe starts her column like this:

Today, Australia may well elect its first android prime minister. Ruddbot has marched through this campaign like the Terminator, incorporating Coalition policies that suit him and remorselessly amputating Labor sentiments that do not. This is the happy prerogative of the machine.

Finally, the campaign gets interesting

Dispute boils over in Wentworth - smh.com.au

Award winning journalist Caroline Overington hurled abuse at Labor candidate for Wentworth George Newhouse before slapping him across the face at a polling station in Sydney's east, witnesses say.

Donations for art lessons always welcome...

Cancel the anti-depressants?

Newspoll predicts a cliffhanger | The Courier-Mail

One reason to be against a massive win for Labor is purely for entertainment value.

Especially with daylight saving, it can be very annoying to have the beer, a bowl of popcorn and remote control at the ready to channel surf the election coverage, only to find out it has been virtually decided by 7pm Brisbane time.

No, I don't like anyone calling it until 10.30 at the earliest.

We need a law to maximise the entertainment value of election nights: elections should only be held outside of daylight savings periods.

Under darkening skies

Business confidence plunges on election uncertainty - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Like the dramatic post title? Expect more from here over the weekend. I expect to be unhappy.

Annabel's fun column

Such a cute little piglet but then things get curly - Opinion - smh.com.au

Annabel Crabbe does a fine, funny column again today.

And at last, rather than Kevin Rudd's "ping" ad annoying me, I see Fairfax websites today are being blitzed by Liberal ads which are so bluntly negative they make me smile.

Jackie's fine legacy

There must be a case to be made that Jackie Kelly was the luckiest Howard government politician ever. The surprise delivery of an "aspirational" seat to the PM, surviving the challenge and second poll, being made sports Minister for the Olympics as a reward: just the ridiculous luck of running for the right seat at the right time.

But her success made me very cynical about what it takes to be a successful politician in our democracy.

You see, how do I put this politely: based on some past experience with her, I always took the view that she was the ultimate example of the triumph of style over substance.

For all I know, she was a good local member. I don't think it takes much to do that if you have good staff, go to lots of local meetings and actually help some constituents with personal problems. All politicians work hard in terms of the time they have to put in. But a Minister? Bah.

Anyway, I find it funny (in a schadenfreude sort of way) that this current Muslim leaflet debacle has involvement from her own home (her husband). If Howard loses, what a weird set of bookends to his government Jackie will have made.

I should have emailed Howard with a warning when she won her seat. (Although I am not even sure I had an email account way back then!)

UPDATE: a perhaps even more damaging claim from the past by a Liberal about Jackie Kelly.
And she is being completely ridiculed by every commentator in the land for her performance on the media this morning. Schadenfreude overload!

Having said that: of course this doesn't make me change my vote. I wish the examples of famous Labor dirty tricks at the electorate level would come to mind, but I am sure they are there. I thought the Libs were looking at losing Lindsay anyway.

Good point

Rudd reckons it would have been easy being Howard

A pithy and accurate post by Andrew Bolt, even though I still blame him for much of the Coalition's problems in this election.

Red Kerry

I say there is no way anyone can credibly deny that Kerry O'Brien's approach to interviewing Rudd tonight was (yet again) less aggressive, softer and more forgiving of avoidance than his approach with Howard the night before. (Even though I thought Kerry's thanks to Howard at the end did show a degree of respect.)

For whatever reason, there has been little criticism of ABC bias in this campaign, but it's been there. The only thing I take comfort in is that even an ABC journalist like Barry Cassidy can find Rudd's tactics annoying.

Keeping Deveny happy

Australians have a chance to prove they're not all that bad - Opinion

Catherine Deveny has a column condemning one half of Australia for daring to have voted Coalition in the last few elections. It's truly eye-rolling stuff.

It's so easy to ridicule, I can't be bothered.

I will just make the point that she typifies what I have said for many years: those who support the Coalition generally think that people intending to vote Labor are simply unwise. A significant chunk of Labor supporters, on the other hand, think that those who vote for the Coalition are insanely stupid and morally depraved.

Life lessons from the Duke

Like the Duke, just get on with it | Libby Purves - Times Online

Libby Purves thinks we can learn something from the attitude of Duke of Edinburgh. (Stop second guessing what could have been, and just get on with life.)

Not a bad attitude.

Tony Abbot made similar sense when he recently made the point that in times of strong employment, unhappy employees are generally better off just getting a new job elsewhere rather than seeking to punish their boss through litigation. (Of course, there are extreme cases where bosses should be pursued, but the great majority of unfair dismissal cases are not like this, I feel sure.)

I have personally seen an unfair dismissal case which followed what I suspect to be the typical pattern for small businesses:

1. young employee claims boss said "X",
2. young employee with parental encouragement and free legal assistance starts action in State Industrial Relations system;
3. at first "mediation" at the tribunal, boss strongly denies she would ever say that to anyone, and it was not the reason for ending employment anyway;
4. being honest, boss admits she did not take notes of the disputed conversation at the time. (She didn't know what was going to be alleged at that time, after all)
5. industrial relation commissioner rolls her eyes at how silly it was for boss to not have written down such details immediately;
6. boss pays employee "go away money".

Expect more of this again if Federal Labor gets in.

Parents who encourage their adult children to take such action have always bothered me. There was a much worse case I also had some involvement with years ago, where the employee performed a patently stupid and dangerous prank which resulted in physical, possibly permanent, injury to another employee. Disciplinary proceedings ensued, employee admitted he was guilty and was duly punished. Afterwards, his parents became involved in a protracted complaint about how his whole career had been mismanaged by the service. I couldn't believe it. He was (as I recall) in his early to mid-twenties, and still he has parents who are fighting his battles for him. (They made it pretty clear that they figured that his dangerous act of stupidity was somehow caused by boredom due to his career mismanagement.)

Parents with such attitudes drive me crazy. Be like the Duke. Take personal responsibility. Move forward. And encourage your children to do the same.

Surge works (cross fingers)

Good news from Iraq. - By Christopher Hitchens - Slate Magazine

Hitchens summarises some of the positive reporting coming out of Iraq at the moment. When both the New York Times and the BBC carry reports like this, you know it's not just wishful right wing thinking.

Of course, a city with 5 dead bodies a day still turning up, and 16 suicide bombings a month, it is not exactly ready to start taking tourists yet. But compared to where it was...