Islam - again (and Japan, too)

Oh no.  News of yet another terrible radical Islamic inspired attack in France.

While in Japan recently, I kept thinking what a security nightmare that country could be if Islamic terrorism was a serious issue there.   There are now specific announcements on their train system that security has been upgraded, but whether that is due to a terrorism concern, or just worry about crime generally, I'm not sure.   But seriously, that country has been trusting its own people for so long, they have practices in place that would just make a terrorist attack so easy and they are slow to change.

For example, luggage lockers are extremely common around train stations and (I think) even at Narita airport;  I presume they're not much available in Britain or the US any more?   Maybe they aren't such a good spot for a terrorist to think about causing maximum danger, given that the locker itself would have effect on the blast, and there are not usually that many people milling around them, but still...

The most obvious issue is on Shinkansen, which are terrific but do not provide adequate space for large baggage.  The few people with large luggage (usually foreigners, as most Japanese use their incredibly efficient internal luggage or parcel delivery services)  often do have to leave them in the space behind the last row of seats and the wall in each carriage.   (It's a pretty big gap, and can you fit a few large suitcases/backpacks in there.  I doubt it's intentionally there for luggage, but in practice, that's what it gets used for.)  This means you are often sitting far from your luggage, sometimes mixed up with other people's.

The announcements say that you should tell staff if luggage not with you is yours, and there are conductors often moving through the train, seemingly only tallying up the number of occupied seats and bowing as they enter and exit the carriage; but I know from direct observation that they just don't worry about the luggage sitting at the end of the carriage spot.  (I never bothered trying to tell them; but I saw some other foreigners doing so, to a conductor who just smiled and nodded and moved on.) 

It is, in other words, the perfect spot for a terrorist bomb; and one which does not even involve suicide tactics, given that you can move freely between carriages.

Should I be making this observation out loud?   I don't know, but I'm sure I can't be the only foreigner who has thought about this...

Anyhow, I see from the Japan Times, which I don't normally expect to have much about Islamic terrorism concerns, that the Japanese do not waste time fretting too much about privacy rights when it comes to monitoring Muslims.  In fact, it's pretty extraordinary:

Qureshi, like almost all of Japan’s roughly 100,000 Muslim residents, is no stranger to police surveillance. However, the true extent of the systematic profiling and surveillance of Japan’s Muslim community only came to light in 2010, when over 100 internal Metropolitan Police Department documents were leaked online.

The leak revealed that the police had compiled detailed profiles on 72,000 Muslims, including personal information such as bank account statements, passport details and records of their movements. The leak also showed that police had at times planted cameras inside mosques and used undercover agents to infiltrate Islamic nonprofit organizations and halal grocers and restaurants.

The leaked documents, which were made available unredacted online and included the personal profiles of dozens of Muslims, were downloaded more than 10,000 times in the first few weeks.

A detailed breakdown of Qureshi’s life was among the documents, but he says he wasn’t surprised. He had known he was being followed for a long time.

There are some judicial limits, but the basic idea is still OK:

After the 2010 leak, 17 of the Muslims named in the documents sued the government and police in a bid to have the widespread spying ruled illegal. In 2014, the Tokyo District Court agreed that the leak had violated the plaintiffs’ right to privacy and awarded them ¥90 million in compensation, but it also ruled that the intelligence-gathering was “necessary and inevitable.”

The court sidestepped the issue of blanket profiling by religion, as did the Tokyo High Court in an appeal the following year.

Earlier this year, the group asked the Supreme Court to rule on the constitutionality of the lower court’s decision.

The leaked documents refer to all those profiled as “suspects.” Their lawyers argued that spying solely on the basis of faith, rather than any suspicious activity, breached their plaintiffs’ rights to privacy, equality and freedom of religion. The Supreme Court dismissed the case on May 31.

In another Japan Times article of recent interest, a writer looks at the historic reasons why Muslims often don't trust other Muslims.  It starts with an issue I did not even realise existed (well, apart from the fact that Sunnis and Shiites may well want to kill each other):

The mistrust that pervades Middle Eastern societies is hard to miss. As controlled experiments confirm, Arabs have substantially less trust in strangers, foreign or domestic, than, say, Europeans. This hampers progress on many fronts, from business development to government reforms.

Low-trust societies participate disproportionately less in international commerce, and attract less investment. And, indeed, according to the World Values Survey and related research, trust among individuals in the Middle East is low enough to limit commercial transactions to people who know one another either personally or through mutual acquaintances. Because of their lack of trust, Arabs will often pass up potentially lucrative opportunities to gain through exchange....

One potentially important clue lies in the difference between perceptions of Muslims and Christians. To be sure, there are no official data quantifying the deficit; in most parts of the Middle East, too few Christians are left to make meaningful statistical comparisons. But casual evidence suggests that the region’s shoppers, merchants, and investors generally consider local Christians to be more trustworthy than local Muslims.

 This historical source of this, according to the writer, go back some way:

My work with the economic historian Jared Rubin exploring Istanbul’s 17th- and 18th-century Islamic court records may offer insights into why.

At that time, Istanbul was a cosmopolitan city; around 35 percent of its local residents were Christian, and 6 percent were Jewish. According to Islamic law (Shariah), Muslims had to do business according to Islamic rules, and if they wanted to adjudicate a conflict, they had to use an Islamic court. For their part, Christians and Jews could do business under their own rules, though they were free also to follow Islamic rules and to use Islamic courts, if they so desired. But, of course, if they were involved in a case against a Muslim, that had to be handled in an Islamic court.

When a Muslim and a non-Muslim faced each other in a trial, the Muslim enjoyed significant advantages. First, the judges’ training predisposed them to give the benefit of any doubt to a fellow Muslim. Second, the court staff was entirely Muslim, which meant that testimony was viewed solely from a Muslim perspective. Third, whereas Muslims could testify against anyone, Christians and Jews could testify only against another non-Muslim.

But these advantages had a downside. Because the legal system made it easier for Muslims to breach contracts with impunity, they were more often tempted to default on their debts and to renege on their obligations as business partners and sellers.

Meanwhile, non-Muslims, whose obligations were enforced more vigorously, gained a reputation for trustworthiness. To reflect differences in perceived risk, lenders, who were predominantly Muslim, charged about two percentage points less for credit to Christian and Jewish borrowers than to Muslims (15 percent annually, as opposed to 17 percent).

So it seems that perceptions of trustworthiness in the Arab world are rooted, at least partly, in the uneven enforcement of commitments under Islamic law. The sectarian differences in legal enforcement did not last. In the mid-19th century, Islamic courts gave way to what were essentially secular courts, at least with respect to commerce and finance. The enforcement of commitments then became more balanced.

Interesting.

Pre-post announcement

About apartments

Rent report: Units play catch up to houses in housing-short Sydney, Domain says | afr.com

Not sure if it's entirely reliable, but this article indicates Sydney is not oversupplied with residential units, but Brisbane very soon will be.

The picture was different in Brisbane, where decade-low levels of
migration into southeast Queensland and the recent state budget boost
for first home buyers were weakening the rental market. Rents of units
fell to $375 from March's record $380 and houses slipped to $400 from
$410. While prices are still up, or equal to, their level of a year ago,
vacancy rates for both dwelling types have increased, suggesting rents
will fall further - especially given the large numbers of new apartments
due to settle in the Queensland capital, Dr Wilson said.

"The signs are all there for more supply than demand," he said. "It means downward pressure on rents in Brisbane."

One thing I have been meaning to say for a long time, based on my getting to see quite a lot of unit plans in my line of work, is that I am struck by the largely unimaginative design of apartments in Australia.  Now I know there is only so much you can do with a rectangular floor area, but it just seems to me that there is rarely anything particularly distinctive about Australian apartments.   Why do we so rarely see, for example, units with two internal levels (I always like the sleeping area on a different level from the living area, and I did recently see one unit, about 20 years old I would guess, that did do that.)  For units for single people, we rarely see built in space saving designs that are so common in Japan, or (for that matter) that you may see in an Ikea store.  

There is certainly a tendency in Brisbane for very large unit balconies now, at the cost of decreased interior size.  I know we have the weather for a lot of outdoor eating, or partying, but I still feel that trend has actually gone a bit too far in this city.  (Maybe I feel that way because I can feel slightly nervous being on balconies that are more than about 4 or 5 few stories about ground level, anyway.)     

And I have already blogged about the fashion for modern high rise units here to have floor to ceiling glass as the exterior walls, whether it be for bedrooms or living areas.  This can't be energy efficient, surely; and I just don't like the insubstantial feeling it gives a building.

Maybe everyone thinks they're an architect, but I do like to imagine that if someone paid me lots of money, gave me a year and told me to come up with something really innovative and interesting (but not over the top expensive, either) for Australian unit design, I could do it....

IS prepares for the end (of holding territory)

Islamic State readies for fall of 'caliphate'

It's pretty much gone as I expected.   They'll be dangerous for some time yet, of course, due to "off shore" terrorism.  (And within Iraq, of course.  Can you imagine the nightmare of policing a re-captured IS controlled city with a huge underground resistance?)   But a couple of other observations:

a.  the ABC has recently run a story with interviews of captured IS fighters in northern Iraq (all de-bearded and not looking like crazed killers at the moment) in which they complain that they were (and remain) motivated by their bad former treatment at the hands of the Iraqi Shiite controlled army.  This makes it all the more plain that with the overthrow of Saddam and the major revival within Iraq of the old internal Islamic sectarian conflict, the ultimate effects of the war were not containable within Iraq.  A reasonable sounding summary of the effect of the war appears today at Gulf News, actually:

Likewise, before they started the war, many policymakers believed that democracy would emerge quickly once Saddam was gone. Ensuring that such fundamental and consequential assumptions are tested by “red teams” — those not supporting the associated policy — should be standard operating procedure.

There is also the reality that removing governments, as difficult as that can be, is not nearly as difficult as creating the security that a new government needs to consolidate its authority and earn legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Creating anything like a democracy in a society lacking many of its most basic prerequisites is a task of decades, not months.

The report said little about the legacy of the Iraq War, but it is important to consider. First and foremost, the war disrupted the regional balance of power. No longer in a position to distract and balance Iran, Iraq instead came under Iranian influence. Iran was free not just to develop a
meaningful nuclear programme, but also to intervene directly and via proxies in several countries. Sectarian fighting poisoned relations between Sunnis and Shiites throughout the region. The alienation felt by soldiers and officers of Saddam’s disbanded army fuelled Sunni
insurgency and, ultimately, led to the rise of Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).

b.  How's the cyberwar against IS on line propaganda going?   Both the US military and private hacker  groups said they would be fighting them in cyberspace, but we hear very little about how that's gone.

Flicking the switch to vaudeville

Oh my.  The state of British politics seems to have become a comedy script instead of something serious, with David Cameron starting a jolly jape that backfired on him, and ultimately resulting in a clown becoming Foreign Secretary.   If such comedy themes continue to spread globally, he'll have another clown in the White House in November with whom he can exchange hair styling tips.

However, I half expect he'll have resigned for impregnating some young European foreign office staffer before then; and Trump: it's not going to happen.

Update:  has there been any support from any media outlet for the appointment of Johnson?   Can't say I've seen any anywhere:  the reaction seems to be universal disbelief.  

The religious (sexual) imagination and radical Islam

The most remarkable thing about the chilling Four Corners' episode "Soldiers of Allah" on Monday night, in which a French Muslim undercover reporter secretly filmed conversations with radicalised Islamic wannabe terrorists and IS soldiers, was how much the young men were inspired by a specific, and very carnal, vision of the rewards of Heaven for a young male martyr.   Yes, we're talking about the expectation of scores of beautiful houris, the young virginal women of Islamic fame, living in a grand palace, waiting to attend to all the needs (nudge nudge, wink wink) of a recently arrived martyr, not to mention the winged horse which will be the expected mode of heavenly transport.

It was weird listening to the conversation in which a guy in his mid twenties was painting this picture to  his youngest recruit, a mere 16 year old, who seemed to be revelling in the promises with an almost masturbatory intensity.

Which made me think:   one of the great practical advantages of Christianity is surely the Biblical lack of a clear and detailed explanation of the experience of Heaven.  God knows, over-certainty of His* intentions has caused problem enough in the history of the religion, but I don't know that anyone can accuse it of causing horny young men to kill in the expectation that the sex they've missed out on on Earth will be on tap in the afterlife.   If anything, I've always considered the message of both Jesus and Paul (whichever you might consider the "true" creator of Christianity) to be along the lines of "yes, Heaven is definitely there and is the just reward of the deserving, and it'll be great; but exactly how it works? - trust me, you don't need to understand the details and I'm not going to try to explain."

It's a peculiar thing, that I've surely noted before, but holding too much certainly on the nature of both this life, and the afterlife, can be a terribly, terribly dangerous thing.  Even from the non-theistic point of view, the firm belief that you're just a meat robot acting out on decisions made subconsciously and without your real control is hardly conducive to moral behaviour.   And at the other extreme, of course, is thinking that Heaven is about a fantastic sex life, at least if you are a martyr.

It's odd how the lesson seems to be "it's best for all concerned to be somewhat uncertain about the metaphysics of life".


*  I don't really consider God is gendered, but I'm comfortable sticking with the male imagery.   

Pokemoned

It's gained so much publicity so quickly, I feel I should have an opinion on the curious matter of Pokemon Go, the adult uptake of it, and the financial resurgence of a Japanese company on its back.

I dunno, just seems like innocent fun to me, actually.  Perhaps it's just that I am still under the influence of recent time in Japan, where the line between kids' iconography and adult use of it is non-existent,  but I find it hard to feel any indignation or annoyance at adult uptake of a somewhat silly kid's competitive game which does incorporate player co-operation and (gosh) outdoor physical activity.

Compared to some other things adults get interested in (violent video games, cage fighting, degrading porn, beheading infidels) how can I regret this?

More curious images from Japan

This is now a common sign on Japanese train stations.   People must have longer selfie sticks than I realised:

And one day, near a train station, we noticed this novelty in a kids' vending machine:

It appears to be underwear (dare I say "panties"?) for drinks bottles.  My daughter was tempted to buy one the next day, but the vending machines had been reconfigured, and they were gone.   I pointed out that if it weren't for the photo, this is something that, 20 years later, you might be uncertain whether it was real or part of a dream....

Update:   I see that "panties for drink bottles" were noted on the internet last year.   I now understand the condensation catching utility of them, and regret not having purchased one.  Strictly the plaid design for me, though:  I do have some boxers in similar colour.

Election comments

*  As I'm pretty sure I suggested a few months ago, the problem with a narrow win by the Coalition is that no one within it (or the broader public) will be entirely sure of the reason why, enabling both conservatives and the, um, not conservatives to blame each other.  This is particularly the case given the wildly divergent swings across different seats, which seems to be the odd characteristic of this election.

*  It seems that Queensland was much more "in play" for Labor than polling or punditry had predicted.  But by voting in large numbers for Pauline Hanson, the embarrassing low level of serious political thought in the State was, unfortunately, once again on display.   (By the way, who can doubt that her regular lightweight media exposure on Sunrise - as it was with Kevin Rudd - was largely responsible for her political re-emergence.   The producers of that show have a lot to answer for, come the revolution!)

*  I really wasn't paying that much close attention to interviews and such in this campaign, given I was trying to get enough work off my desk to go on a holiday.   But yeah, it did seem Turnbull was underwhelming as a campaigner.  Shorten was better than expected.

*  As for the "Mediscare" campaign:  I think it counted as an election campaign exaggeration, not a lie as such, and it is ridiculous for the Coalition to carry on as if they are above such tactics.   (Joyce and his $100 lamb leg roasts of campaigns past, to note one oft repeated example.)   The Coalition's "Labor's War on Business" was a pretty good example of silly campaign exaggeration from the other direction, too.

*  Speaking of scare campaigns, why on earth was no one in Labor running legitimate ads about "Remember the surprise the Coalition sprung on you about Tertiary fees after the last election?"   Especially given that no one knows what the ultimate policy on tertiary fees from the Coalition will be this term.  Maybe they decided no one under 25 was going to vote Coalition, anyway?

*  I think the Coalition's policy platform is disappointing, for the following reasons:

a.  the soundest economic view seems to be that the distortions in investment caused by negative gearing on residential property does indeed need to be addressed for the long term health of the economy, and the Labor approach to that was responsible and reasonable.   That the Coalition should reject any changes to it shows them to still be the captives of the modern equivalent of the "white shoe brigade", with the construction industry eventually paying the price for short term gain.   There is already plenty of concern being expressed about a large oversupply in unit construction in the 3 major cities, and there deserves to be a serious winding back on that.

b. As often happens, I know someone who voted against self interest, in that he works in the financial/retirement advice business and was bemoaning that the Coalition's superannuation changes were unfair and bad for his clients, and he even admitted that Labor's approach to reforming it was simpler and better in principle.  He still would not vote Labor, though, because - Labor.  Again, Labor, I think, had a better policy on something important for the long term.

c. Labor, of course, I can criticise for refusing to contemplate even a small increase in the GST as being "regressive", when I think it is an obvious helpful and fast contribution to budgetary issues.

*  Despite that last point, overall, I think Labor did act pretty responsibly and transparently in detailing its economic policy and plans, and I was satisfied that the scheme (short term slightly higher deficits pulled in  by the ongoing effect of its longer term policy changes) was plausible.   Of course, it might have got blown out of the water by a second global financial crisis within the next couple of years of some similar magnitude to the last; but then again, it's not as if the Liberals are going to be substantially better off responding under their policies.

*  It's also disappointing that climate change was a "no go" area for both major parties in this campaign.  With the Nationals feeling good after their performance, who knows what this will mean?   They worry about coal mines for the "wrong" reason, but at least they still worry about coal mines.   And then you have Katter, the Mad Hatter who seems all over the shop on climate change (in that he has been known to fret about the barrier reef and acidification) apparently trying to get government help for coal mining rail in Queensland.  The best we can hope for is that a Clinton win in the US, and possible aggressive climate change policies by her, will re-focus attention on what we're actually not doing fast enough.

So yeah, I voted Labor and am happy to explain why.  I think it's an entirely justifiable thing to do for a centrist voter at the moment, as its policy instincts are, on the whole, still sounder than that being displayed within the fractious Coalition.

Japanese products you didn't know you needed

When catching the Shinkansen in Japan, you should always check the seat pocket in front of you for the rail shopping catalogue that's likely to be there.   It's a bit reminiscent of the old Sharper Image catalogues from the US (younger readers may not even know about them, I guess); perhaps less techy, but with added Japanese idiosyncrasy:

Here are three products, for example:

For the 28 year old man who can't wait to get to 68, there's Silver Ash instant grey hair goop.  The ladies love the older, distinguished Japanese Steve Martin look, apparently.

Here's one for a problem I sometimes find, especially if I have lost a couple of kilos on a diet and can't decide which notch my pants belt should now go to.  Yes, that can make it tricky to keep your shirt tucked in neatly.  What I never realised was that I could solve that with another belt, this one just for my shirt:

 

 

At current exchange rates, that comes in at about $75, though.   Neatness comes at a price.  

And what about that long held regret that you can't see inside your own ear hole?   Well, do I have the probe for you:

She seems either surprised, amazed, or happy.   Not entirely sure what my reaction would be...

Andrew Bolt crosses the line

I'm sure it's not just me.   I'm sure that Andrew Bolt has become way, way less sensible as he has aged.  Is this what happens when you become a multi-media right wing "star" and need to pump up the output to justify (what I assume is) a very substantial income?

These days, I find him positively offensive when it comes to his taunting dog-whistles about refugees and any crime they may be involved in.   He takes one semi-valid point (that the media can be overly politically correct about protecting racial identity when it comes to talking about crimes committed by recent immigrants) but continually headlines posts with "Who let them in?"  Why he doesn't just outright call for a renewed White Australia policy, I don't know.

This is lazy, bigoted commentary that is up there with the intellectual gravitas of Pauline Hanson.  Is he saying that there are no deserving African or Islamic refugees?   Is he suggesting that Immigration screening can plausibly include a foolproof method for predicting whether refugees (or their teenage children) will get involved in gang related, or other, crime?  Does he forget Vietnamese involvement in drug crime in the 1980's that caused consternation at the time but is something that (as far as I know) has passed with increased societal integration?

Because he clearly can't credibly argue these points, he avoids the specifics.  Just as he avoids the matter of the Iraq invasion being ultimately behind the current massive problem of Islamic refugee movement into Europe.    As I have said before, surely someone like him should feel at least a bit sheepish and accept that his former positions have not had great outcomes and that the West is paying for it now? 

I don't call for him or John Howard to recant and apologise on Iraq - given that I also thought at the time that the invasion was justifiable and might have had good outcomes.  And we can never know what would have happened in an alternative history scenario.  But I'm not going to do what Bolt does and act as if the Right is always right and look for someone else to blame.   He now just follows the tropes of the nutty Fox News and other Right wing commentary in the US, where everything is Obama's fault.

His latest racially tinged bit of nonsense is his completely over the top reaction to the Dallas shootings - that this was the "first skirmish" in a full blown "race war" that had just ignited.  

He subsequently spends time on figures noting comparative figures of black on white and white on black crime - while not noting (not that I have seen) how Trump in the US had tweeted 8 months ago a  completely wrong figure  about white victim-hood that was out by a factor of at least 5.  (And I have seen that figure repeated in a recent thread at Breitbart.  Trump followers will never get that dangerously wrong figure out their heads.)    Having said that, bizarrely, Trump's short response to the Dallas shootings was, compared to Bolt, full of restraint.   And even some conservative commentators in America have been starting to note concern about American policing.

Instead, Bolt goes with "End this racist war on whites"(!!) 

The best response to this panicky commentary of Bolt's type was by Ross Douthat's column "Are We Unravelling", in which he echoes Obama's point that despite the current problems, the current American situation is really no where near as bad in terms of social and political upheaval as it was in the 1960's.  But this doesn't suit the "it's always the Left's fault" meme of Fox News, Breitbart and Andrew Bolt.   So historical perspective matters nothing to them.


Clearly, Bolt has been unreliable and swayed by all the wrong people on many, many issues for a long time now:  climate change, of course, where amateur backyard and eccentric scientists have always been more convincing to him than scientific professional bodies;  his help in publicising the disgraceful 20 year old rumour campaign run by the thoroughly discredited Michael Smith and Larry Pickering against Julia Gillard;  the self pitying martyrdom (encouraged by the IPA and, I would guess, Murdoch's Australian minions for PR purposes) of his defence of s.18C action bought against him instead of just correcting errors about individuals and apologising;  his endorsement of the gormless Tony Abbott and utter loathing of Turnbull;   his acting as if ugly internet comments are solely the purview of the Left, while ignoring the blatant ugly misogyny and racist undercurrent in many Right wing commentary threads since Obama took office, such as at Breitbart, Fox and Catallaxy.  

I have thought him foolish and annoying in the extreme in his advocacy on those issues, but his race and immigration commentary is now just so silly, and offensive, that it completely crosses the line of what I find  acceptable (or forgiveable?) in political punditry.

He's become a caricature of sensible political and cultural analysis, thoroughly devoid of any common sense he once had.

No one should read anything into the fact he is on my blogroll - if he stays on it, perhaps I should just list him under a new category "Gone Stupid and Offensive"?

The complicated world of Abenomics

Here's a few posts about the difficult matter of the Japanese economy:

Follow the Money:  Meanwhile, in Japan, Household Consumption Continues to Fall


(Indicating that adjusting the tax burden away from companies and more onto consumers is not always a good idea.)

Halfway Around The World, Brexit Hits Japan's Already Soft Economy

Thanks, Cameron!

And is the whole world "Turning Japanese"?

I really think so...

As an aside:  I was a bit surprised to hear from someone with a bit of local knowledge that one part of Japan I'm somewhat familiar with (the North East Iwate prefecture) is doing better than it used to, due to some businesses relocating factories to the area which was formerly known as a relative poor part of Japan due to it having little industry.   And it's true, the capital of the prefecture, Morioka, seemed more youthful and busier to me that it had when I first visited it 18 years ago.   For a country with a demographic problem, the shopping centre seemed full of kids on a Sunday.

Some somewhat amusing Japanese material

I think Clive James, with his clips of silly Japanese "challenge" game shows when he was at his height of TV popularity back in the 1980's and 90's, gave people a  misleading impression of the country's supposedly "wild and crazy",  if not cruel, sense of humour.  (I am told those shows were more or less just a passing fad - so it would be a bit like the Japanese thinking they understood Australians by watching re-runs of "It's a Knockout".)

Having said that, it's OK to find amusement at some Japanese images which are, well, unusual from a Western perspective.

For example, I took from the Japan Times:

This sums up the odd juxtapositions in Japan so well - the formality of the traditionally dressed and classically pretty "Miss Sake" at one end (in Australia, I think we would only end up with a somewhat tattooed "Miss Beer" wearing ugg boots and tracky pants), and at the other end of the line, after the serious officials, a really silly looking mascot - despite the Japanese Sake Fair presumably not really needing any attempt at "kawaii" to attract attendees.   (Although it's true, I suppose you could make the same argument about mascot superfluousness of the Olympics.)

Anyway, I just love the photo.

Later, in a book shop, I found this in the kid's section:

Yes, I do believe I stumbled across a relatively recent Japanese children's character, the "Bum Detective".

Now again, I know we've had our very own series of silly "bum" inspired novels for kids (The Day My Bum Went Psycho, for one), but I doubt they were illustrated, and I find the Japanese concept amusingly peculiar in its own right, as per this explanation:

The Bum Detective behaves like a perfect English gentleman, except that his face looks like a butt, and he blows farts from his face! He is very kind to ladies and likes tea and sweet-potato cakes. He often says, “I smell trouble,” and solves it. In this first title of the series, the Bum Detective tries to find a thief who stole all of the sweets at a shop. Young readers can enjoy labyrinths and quizzes as well as the story, which has them trying to figure out the truth together with the Bum Detective.

That's all I have time for, right now...

An armed society's a polite society, hey? (And see update below)

Actually, it's one where the police fear of anyone carrying a pistol, especially if they're black, makes them ridiculously trigger happy; and protests can turn into revenge shoot ups which "good guys with guns" have  not a chance in hell of stopping.

(And if it turns out this is actually IS inspired terrorism - it will scarcely make a difference to my points.  It's legal to walk around carrying rifles in Texas - how much of an easier run can you give to a wannabe sniper?) 

Updates:  you can read the same points, made at greater length, and more eloquence, in a piece by Adam Gopnik at the New Yorker, entitled "The Horrific, Predictable Results of an Armed Citizenry".

Also, it's hard to comprehend how "open carry" advocates cannot understand (or will deny the obvious) that their turning up at demonstrations in an urban environment creates a obvious problem.  As explained in a Dallas paper:

He said Friday that about 20 people in "ammo gear and protective equipment and rifles slung over their shoulder" participated in the Black Lives Matter rally downtown on Thursday night.
"When the shooting started, at different angles, they started running," he said. "We started catching."
Then police interviewed them.
Rawlings said open carry brings confusion to a shooting scene.
"What I would do is look for the people with guns," he said.
Max Geron, a Dallas police major, talked about the confusion during the shooting in a post on a law enforcement website.
"There was also the challenge of sorting out witnesses from potential suspects," Geron said. "Texas is an open carry state, and there were a number of armed demonstrators taking part. There was confusion on the radio about the description of the suspects and whether or not one or more was in custody."

 Earlier in the report, it says:

It was not immediately clear Saturday whether any of those who were legally armed delayed or hampered the police response to the shooter, Micah Xavier Johnson, 25, of Mesquite. Dallas police did not respond to questions. 

As if it couldn't cause enormous diversionary confusion. 

And how's this for a pathetic and "dumb as" response from an Open Carry advocate in the same article:

But C.J. Grisham, president of Open Carry Texas, said police should be able to separate the good guys from the bad guys in such a scenario because "the bad guys are the ones shooting."
"If you can't identify a threat, you shouldn't be wearing a uniform," he said.
Grisham said some in law enforcement look at law-abiding gun owners as a threat.
"It's not that difficult to tell the difference between a bad actor and a good actor," he said. "The good guys are going to obey commands, the bad guys are not."

According to all reports, the Dallas police force has a good reputation in the country, a black chief, and it sounds as if there was never any prospect it would do anything to aggravate a peaceful demonstration.   In a saner country, civilians turning up to it with long rifles would be told by police to get out of there; there is no good cause to be carrying a rifle in an inner city.  

We can at least be thankful that similar gun fetishists in Australia do not wield significant political power.

The aging American priest

Revealing the 'taboo' of retirement for Catholic priests; declining population, burnout

The figures are pretty dire:

In 1965, there were 58,632 priests in the U.S. with 94 percent of them
in active ministry; in 2014, there were 38,275 priests with only 68
percent in active ministry. In 2009, the average age of a priest was 63,
whereas the average age in 1970 was 35. By 2019, half of all active
priests will be at the minimum retirement age of 70.

(By the way, odd that this story was found in the medical section of phys.org!)

Anti-Semitism and climate change denialism

Hey Jason - I think it's a very silly suggestion in your tweet that Clive Hamilton "comes close" to tarring all climate change denialists with anti-Semitism when in his article he specifically details how Bolt openly repudiated  Robert's Jewish banker conspiracy mongering.   (Sure, Hamilton doesn't "give credit" to Bolt for that, for reasons he explains, but Bolt's stance is still a large part of the article.)

You may not like Hamilton, but an article reminding us of the conspiracy nuttiness of a new Senator (and that of prominent denialists Jonova and her husband) is a good public service, if you ask me.

Climate sensitivity estimates back where they were

Is it time to freak out about the climate sensitivity estimates from energy budget models?

As was half expected at the time they came out, the lower climate sensitivity estimates based on energy budget models look to be biased low.   The IPCC's lowering of the bottom end for the range of possible sensitivity was probably premature.

Japan in summer

Have you noticed the weather in Tokyo this week?   Last Sunday (my last day there), it was 35 degrees; yesterday - 36!

This is the first time I have spent much time in Japan in summer, and yes, it can indeed be very humid and hot.   I also suspect that sprawling Tokyo would have one of the hottest "urban heat island" effects around, and I wonder how much of that is reflected in the temperatures.

Googling the topic:  hey, my hunch that there is a huge UHI effect in that city is right:

Over the past 100 years, Tokyo's average temperature has increased by about three degrees Celsius, and that of Osaka has increased by two degrees Celsius (C). Since it is said that global warming has raised the Japan's average temperature by about one degree C, the temperature increase due to the UHI effect is probably about two degrees in Tokyo and about one degree in Osaka.

Along with the UHI effect, an increasing number of patients suffering from heat stroke and other heat disorders have recently been admitted to emergency rooms. In Tokyo, the number of such patients brought to hospitals by ambulances increased to 1,300 persons in 2007 from 200 in 1996. Some studies show a correlation between deaths from heat stroke and the heat experienced during extremely hot days and sweltering summer nights.

(There are lots more articles about UHI in Japan if you care to Google it.)

The good news:  I was surprised at how well airconditioned the Tokyo metro trains and stations were.   I'm not sure whether the above ground parts of Toyko Station are as good, though:  certainly, on one previous day we were there, when it wasn't as hot as later in the week, it seemed there was inadequate airconditioning in large sections, and it was quite unpleasant.  But perhaps it was just that day?

Outside of Tokyo, the humid heat (in the high 20's and low 30's quite a few days) was still fairly unpleasant for the on-foot tourist.   But we did only have one day with some interference from rain, so perhaps we were lucky in that regard.

As for dressing for the hot weather:  you will read that shorts are mainly for the younger male in Japan, but I think it fair to say that the willingness of  middle aged Japanese men to wear them must have increased in recent years.  (There were certainly many on sale at Uniqlo, too.)   I regretted that I had only brought one pair with me. 

And as for long, slim legged trousers:  given that I have only recently acquired some relatively slim leg chinos myself (look, they may have been in fashion for 5 to 10 years already, but cotton chinos can last nearly a decade if you can control your weight - OK?) I had not realised until this trip how they make for such hot and sweaty legs in hot and humid weather.

Honestly, men (and women) who wear them outdoors in summer are fashion victims, if you ask me. 

In any event, if you have a choice, I would say it is obvious that the height of summer is not the preferred time to be in Japan.   Autumn and (especially) spring would have to be the pick of the seasons.

Flying to Japan - via Jetstar Dreamliner

One great thing about living in Brisbane is the frequent cheap airfares on sale for Japan (assuming you want to holiday there - and you should)  via Jetstar from the Gold Coast.  

This recent trip, the first one I've been on for 6 years was on a new-ish plane - the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.  

First observation:  I had forgotten about how this plane was made with really flexible carbon fibre wings, so I was surprised to see how high they flex upwards just in normal cruising, level flight:

 

OK, so it's hard to give the correct impression from photographing it, but that is a "level" shot out of the window, and believe me, the tip of that wing is riding high.  

As for the interior:   I thought the seats were nice (we're talking economy, by the way), with the flexible headrest part (with "wings" you can tilt up to form a bit of a cradle while trying to sleep) a particularly nice feature.  Even the legroom seems quite adequate to me, and overhead lockers were large.  The "mood lighting", which I remember reading about when it was being built, is nice enough, but not all that noticeable.   The windows with the electronic frosting were large and good for someone (like me) who likes to spend a lot of time peering outside. 

But on the downside, and it is quite a downside:  who on earth designed the toilets?  Is the lid which will not sit back properly a deliberate thing to stop attempts at squatting on the toilet seat (there was a "no squatting"  diagram on the wall, so I assume this can be an issue).   Why is how to flush the toilet not made more obvious?    Why did the toilet on the trip over flush unexpectedly all the time?   Has any other airliner every had twin toilets with such a lightweight wall between the two stalls?    

The stalls themselves are really noticeably small, and on the daytime flight over, I also doubted the aircraft had been designed with enough of them.  (Yes, I know, line up for toilets can be common on all long haul flights on any aircraft, but these ones were really overused.)   The overnight flight back was much better in that regard, though.

As for Jetstar service:  well, they are a pretty "no nonsense" sort of airline, so you don't expect to get a lot of attention from cabin staff.   I thought they were OK overall.   (They could afford to get a bit of a better look with their uniforms, though, surely - especially with the men wearing pretty much just a polo shirt.)  

So the Dreamliner:   a good aircraft, marred (at least in Jetstar's case) by terrible toilet arrangements.

Two Brexit views

First, I see from James Annan's blog that it had an immediate bad effect on academics in England, whose working life was, it seems, already uncertain enough.

But today in The Guardian, a bit of a surprising defence of Brexit from Simon Jenkins, although I do find his analogy here somewhat amusing:

Brexit is starting to deliver. British politics was constipated and has now overdosed on laxative. It is experiencing a great evacuation. It has got rid of a prime minister and is about to get rid of a leader of the opposition. It will soon be rid of a chancellor of the exchequer and a lord chancellor. It is also rid of two, if not four, Tory heirs apparent. Across the spectrum the left is on the brink of upheaval and perhaps historic realignment, if only the Liberal Democrats have the guts to engineer it. The Greens and Ukip have both lost their leaders. An entire political class is on the way out. As Oscar Wilde said of the death of Little Nell, it would take a heart of stone not to laugh.

It seems to me that Jenkins' welcoming attitude, even though he voted to stay, is from a Left wing perspective.   But he paints such a positive picture of its good effects, you have to question his voting judgement in the first place.

A Krugman review

Money: The Brave New Uncertainty of Mervyn King by Paul Krugman | The New York Review of Books

Here's another readable and intelligent review by Paul Krugman of a significant economics book.

Japanese observations - grooming

Let's get started on a series of posts arising from my recent Japanese holiday.  First, the trivial:   Japan and modern male grooming.

Shopping for personal hygiene products in Japan is educational and fun.  As I noted back in 2009, there has been an insult going around the country for some years that the young Japanese male is too "herbivorous", unlike his more carnivorous (read:  more masculine) predecessors, and supermarket toiletries certainly gives the impression that hair styling is of great (one could say, dandy-ish) interest to the modern Japanese young male.   Although, come to think of it, there are a great many waxes, gels and styling stuff available to the modern Australian male in the supermarket now, too.   (And, it's also true that nothing in Japan compares to the heights of silly European male self indulgence in fashion of the 17th and 18th century.   I still giggle every time I see this painting.)

Anyway, looking at the Japanese product range is amusing, with the ubiquitous "Gatsby" brand having "hair jams", waxes and gels with odd, though admittedly creative, names.  From the Gatsby Australian online store (with truly ridiculous prices, I might add):

- the "Moving Rubber" range that comes in Cool Wet, Air Rise, Spiky Edge, Wild Shake, Loose Shuffle, and Grunge Mat.

- the "Hair Jams" come in "Smart Nuance", Tight Nuance" and "Loose Nuance".  I see via Google that there are also, in some markets at least, "Edgy Nuance" and "Rough Nuance".

And then there's your wax, foams, "styling grease" (an uninspiring name for a hair product, if ever there was one), sprays and "hair water" products in the Gatsby range, too.

I used up some loose change at the airport drug store by buying some Hair Jam "Smart Nuance" (see, the company knows how to appeal even to my vanity) and am wearing it for the first time today.  I'm quite pleased, so far, although looking at the Singaporean Gatsby site, I see that I am using it in a far different fashion than recommended.  No, this is not what I do to my hair in the morning:



(I just used two drops - honestly, I'd have to be in a higher tax bracket to be using as much as the video recommends. Not to mention at least 30 years younger.)

I don't know, perhaps it's all J-pop and K-pop's fault:  maybe young Japanese women demand their boyfriends have this intense interest in precision hair looks.

But apart from hair grooming, the most notable thing about Japanese toiletries is that it confirms that the entire nation does not have to devote much time to fighting body odour - basically because they don't have that much to begin with.   I would guess that the range of deodorants for sale is about 1/4 of the size of what's available here.  Even foot odour is not much of an issue - it's extremely common to be seated next to a Japanese person on a Shinkansen or aircraft with their shoes slipped off, and never have I have noticed foot stink in a way I have when sitting next to a be-socked Australian.

The relative lack of Japanese body odour has had scientific attention:  it seems a lot of it is to do with the same gene that is responsible for "dry" as opposed to "wet" ear wax.

I should also mention the limited number of shaving foam/gels available:  there is certainly a much broader range of these available in the West.  For some reason, shaving gels which do not foam on the face seem relatively popular.  I've tried them, including on this recent trip, but unless you are shaving in good light, or have dark stubble that is obvious in any light, they don't give a good guide to where the razor has and hasn't been, making final touch ups with the blade after you've rinsed often necessary.   I like the cooling menthol feeling, though, especially in hot weather.  (What is it with Asians and menthol products - they love them in all their forms.)

Still, on returning home, I did appreciate using my L'Occitane shave soap and brush again.  Seemed to give a smoother shave, too.

As for Japanese after shaves:  actually, I do like all of those that I have tried.  Not a huge selection, but the "standard" brands are invariable of a milder smell than their Western equivalents, and in summer, I do quite like the menthol which seems to be a component of most aftershaves.  I recommend people try them - even the somewhat old fashioned smell of Bravas, which my wife thinks is "bay rum" scent and the strongest smelling of the ones I have tried.

So, yes, it's true:  Westerners should not have much faith in finding strong deodorant or good shaving cream in Japan.  Take your own.   But if you're male and want a huge selection of hair product, or good, relatively cheap aftershave, you're set.

Update:   I forget to mention two things.   First, Japanese tubes of men's face wash - even the cheapest supermarket brands - are very good, and actually very useful both for the morning face wash in a land where the only soap in the hotel room is likely to be a body wash liquid soap, and for use as a pretty good shaving soap if you travel with a shaving brush.  You have to like menthol, though.  Chances are it will be menthol.

Secondly, how could I forget to mention this grooming product spotted in a drug store:

Yes, the nasal hair waxing product of your nightmares.  Made in China, you can see in the second picture, so one can get the added thrill of wondering what dangerous chemicals might be in the wax. 

I can imagine this being used in a remake of Marathon Man: "Is it safe?" being asked repeatedly while the wax hardens....

Update 2:  I made a mistake.  I realised it was "tight nuance" Hair Jam I bought, because the dude on the packet had a more conservative style. 

Yay for science

Antarctic ozone hole is on the mend : Nature News & Comment

Minority report

Who’s afraid of the big bad wolf minority government? | Club Troppo

A very sensible post by Ken Parish on Australia's silly fear of minority governments.   

Talking Ghibli

Memories of Studio Ghibli – TheTLS

I guess that Studio Ghibli is well and truly beyond the interest of just Japanohiles when the Times Literary Supplement runs commentary on a couple of its films.

The review contains this interesting section:

Both films fit into the Japanese aesthetic tradition of “mono no aware”; most commonly translated as “the pathos of things”, it describes, also, the bittersweet feeling caused by the awareness of transience. This stems from Buddhism, and countless Japanese artworks have traditionally both celebrated and lamented the impermanence of things. Despite its British source material, When Marnie Was There evokes the feeling of mono no aware in the time Anna spends with Marnie; while we celebrate the closeness of their relationship, we also lament the fact that it cannot last.

Drummed off

ABC closes opinion website the Drum with immediate effect | Media | The Guardian

Well, I'm not too cut up about this.   I didn't find myself visiting it all that often, and despite the never ending complaints of Murdoch and the IPA about the ABC crowding out private news companies, I still don't think that  the ABC does on line news and news commentary all that well.  (Especially when it comes to breaking stories, I have often found the ABC website quite slow to be updated.)

As for the TV show:  again, I'm not a fan, and only watch it occasionally.  There's something determinedly bland about it, and its attempts at balance by heavily featuring IPA talking heads is more like false balance: the positions of the IPA are actually pretty extreme and ideological (and in the case of climate change and tobacco, positively despicable), yet their talking heads are rarely challenged about the organisation they work for by the host or the other guests.

If it was up to me, I would kill the TV show, too.

The Return

Well I'm back from Japan, and more posts are coming soon.

A couple of things:

1.  my hunch about the election being much closer than most pundits (or certainly, the betting market) expected turned out pretty right.*

2.  I think I read that Tim Wilson won his seat with an increase in the Liberal vote (even when the predecessor was the high profile Andrew Robb).   For a man already with an ego the size of Tasmania (well, if self promotion is any guide to such things), this is a bad sign.  I half expect that if Turnbull loses the PM job, Timbo will be putting himself up as a replacement candidate immediately.


*   I'll add this to the list of things I have correctly picked over the years - that Rudd would be at risk of being stabbed by his own MPs - well before it happened;  the exact number of college votes by which Obama would win his second election (true - a prediction made at a Catallaxy thread); and that Helen Dale would leave her job with Leyonhjelm within 2 years.

Cohen on Brexit

Prominent later life anti Leftist Nick Cohen really gets stuck into the pro-Brexit politicians in the Guardian today.  More reason to think it was a bad decision.

Brexit noted

I really haven't followed the Brexit story in any detail at all, except that I was applying two excellent and reliable rules of thumb:

the rabid Right, and the anti-regulation, must have small government at any cost ideology tank (it's not really a "think tank",) IPA was thoroughly for it; and

Krugman thought it a bad idea, while acknowledging at the same time the problems of the European Union as originally established, and saying that the economic downside won't be quite as bad as some claim.

It is therefore a certainty that the vote outcome is not a good thing.

Krugman's nuanced view is well worth reading (see last link.)

Also, it's a tad ironic, or something, that the Right took advantage in this campaign of a refugee crisis that is essentially of their own making.  If it weren't for the fact that socialism is perfectly capable of still conducting fantasy experiments that cause economic and social disasters (see Venezuela) the "street cred" of the Right in terms of experiments it's been willing to try has been taking a battering in the last decade or so.  But some idiot somewhere  is usually still giving nutty economists grounds to point and say "ha!  Look at how bad Leftist experiments are!"

Current sources of happiness

*  Brooklyn Nine-Nine, currently running twice a week on SBS 2, I think.  It is just the funniest thing on television.  I think I may have missed the entire second season though, so I perhaps should go looking as to how I could see it.  On Netflix?

*  Anticipating rabbits. 

*  Anticipating a Spielberg movie (I saw today that The BFG is out on 30 June.  Not sure if I will have to bribe the teenagers to see it with me, or not.  They reluctantly went to The Jungle Book, but both liked it.)

* A detailed story about a sport fart incident in The Guardian, which reads as if it could have come from The Onion. 

* I dunno, I still think an election upset in Australia is a possibility:  probably with Xenophon and The Greens undertaking to support a Labor government.

*  Speaking of the election, when going to vote early the other day, one of the staff recognised me from 30 years ago.  For the last 20 years, she had been living in the next door suburb, no doubt shopping at the same local shopping centre, but we had never run into each other.   Anyway, after giving me sufficient hints as to where I should remember her from, I did remember her first name.  Good.  Brain not degenerating too much yet.

*  And speaking of memory:  I had a dream the other night in which I was annoyed I could not remember the name of a friend's child.  (Which would have been true while awake too, as I knew I had been thinking of the child recently.)   Anyway, it was in the dream that the name suddenly came to me.  Seemed a mundane thing to be dreaming about, but interesting how the brain recalled it while asleep.

* About to catch a plane, for the first time in a few years.  Posting may be light for a little while...

Current annoyances

Hey, what good is maintaining a blog if you can't complain to no one in particular?

1.   Ear candles being sold in pharmacies.   Yes, I first saw them in a pharmacy years ago, but last night I saw them again, and in a suburb with a big university student population.   This really annoys me - a totally useless, fantasy science based product that is barely a step above employing a witch doctor to provide consultations in the corner.  (In fact, that may be considerably safer.)  Lift your game, pharmacists!

2.  The extraordinary number of words still devoted to a violent fantasy soap opera each new season.   You know the show I am talking about (OK, Game of Nudes About to be Killed, or whatever) - and given that I noticed some news story devoted to explaining how a particularly realistic violent death was done in a recent episode, I still consider it extremely likely that the show is morally degrading.  

3. While I'm getting indigent about corrupting TV shows - what about Drunk History??  I've tried watching a couple of episodes of the British version of this show on SBS on Demand, and I was going to go on a rant about the depravity of modern England, but I gather now that in fact the British version came after an American version, which I have never seen.   In any event, I can't imagine a stupider idea from a social policy point of view than starting a show with "And today's narrator, after downing 2 pints of lager and 8 double scotch and soda, will now tell the story of ...."   I mean, for God's sake, are they serious about the amount claimed to have been consumed at the start of the show - because in one episode it sounded literally enough to kill some people if it was consumed within a couple of hours.   Honestly, I really can't imagine a worse idea:  well I can, although I suppose executive producers may be somewhat wary of going to jail if they try a show based on comedians who have just snorted two lines of coke.  And if they try one based on stoned comedians in cannabis legal America - being stoned just doesn't make people funny, from my limited experience around them.  But in any event, as far as I could make out, the end result even with alcohol is just not very funny.  It is a terrible idea.

More lightning deaths, or just more news?

India lightning strikes leave 93 people dead - BBC News

Seems to me that for some reason, international deaths by lightning are attracting more media attention lately.  Is it just journalists noticing this for the first time, or is there an unusual amount of lightning this year?  

Best to lose

Gee, I think it in David Leyonhjelm's best interest not to win re-election to the Senate.  The stress of the job is changing him in subtle but noticeable ways: 

Krugman talks Europe (again)

When Virtue Fails - The New York Times

Rabbiting away

Soon, I hope to be meeting rabbits - scores of rabbits. 

So it seems appropriate that I note Beachcomber's recent post about killer rabbits.  

I expect the ones I meet to be nicer.

To be read later, I'm a bit busy...

How American Politics Became So Ineffective - The Atlantic

South Pole rescue

Daring Antarctic rescue mission sets off for South Pole : Nature News & Comment

Someone's sick at the South Pole station and a little twin engine plane is flying there to the rescue.  It has happened before, but the conditions are extraordinary:

In 2001, Ron Shemenski, another physician overwintering at the station, came down with gallstones and pancreatitis. The NSF decided his condition was severe enough to warrant bringing him out. “I didn't want to look back on that year and think there might have been something we could have done to save his life,” says Jerry Macala, who was the station manager for the winter and participated in discussions about whether to evacuate Shemenski. Eventually, a Twin Otter flown by Kenn Borek pilots touched down on a runway outlined by
flaming barrels.

“It was very cold, more than 90 below,” says Nathan Tift, who served as one of two meteorologists that winter. The evacuation was “so strange”, he says, “just because it had never happened before”. Crew members filed out and took a photograph of themselves with the visiting Twin Otter. But then, when the plane tried to take off, they realized that its skis had frozen to the runway from the friction of landing.

Workers had to rock the plane from side to side to liberate it, so that it could eventually take off.

Trump lying noted

Trump: When I said more people at the Orlando nightclub should have had guns, I meant guards or employees � Hot Air

Campaign going down

Donald Trump’s May fundraising totals are disastrously bad - The Washington Post

If I understand the article correctly, Trump raised $3 million in May compared to $27 million by Clinton.

I am guessing that part of it may be due to his followers still thinking he's going to be self funded all the way to the White House (which, of course, he is not going to reach.)  They liked the idea of his being self funded - giving money would interfere with that.

What an amusing problem for the Republicans.

Paranoia has a win

I see that the Department of Justice made a statement justifying their initial decision to release a redacted  transcript of the Orlando killer's call as follows:

The Department of Justice released a statement later on Monday defending the redaction.
Officials said they wanted to remain sensitive to the victims, their families and the ongoing investigation, while also not providing "the killer or terrorist organisations with a publicity platform for hateful propaganda".
"Unfortunately, the unreleased portions of the transcript that named the terrorist organisations and leaders have caused an unnecessary distraction from the hard work that the FBI and our law enforcement partners have been doing to investigate this heinous crime," the statement said, before releasing the full transcript of Mateen's first 50-second phone call.

Seems reasonable enough to me.  But then, they underestimated the amount of nutty right wing Obama paranoia in their own country.

Who would have guessed (certainly, I don't think any science fiction writer ever did) that the trajectory of American history would read "start of the 21st century - first American black president elected - sends 25% of American population nuts."*

*  I'm willing to entertain debate on the precise percentage.   But it's significant, whatever it is.

Actual potheads

Cannabis use during pregnancy may affect brain development in offspring

Compared with unexposed children, those who were prenatally exposed to
cannabis had a thicker prefrontal cortex, a region of the brain involved
in complex cognition, decision-making, and working memory. 

The study sounds pretty careful, too.  No one is sure how to interpret it, though.

Oh Good Lord - the NRA is more sensible than Donald Trump?

NRA says Trump’s Orlando comments ‘defy common sense’ | New York Post

WASHINGTON — Two top National Rifle Association officials took aim at  Donald Trump on Sunday, blasting his suggestion that armed clubgoers could have prevented the deadliest mass shooting in US history as one that “defies common sense.”


“No one thinks that people should go into a nightclub drinking and carrying firearms,” said Chris Cox, executive director of the NRA’s Institute for Legislative Action told ABC’s “This Week.” “That defies common sense. It also defies the law.”

Trump fired up a Texas rally on Friday by saying if some people at the Pulse nightclub “had guns strapped … right to their waist or right to their ankle” it would have “beautiful sight” to have them shoot “the son of a bitch.”...

But Wayne LaPiere, NRA’s CEO, said Sunday that pistol-packing revelers are not a realistic solution.

“I don’t think you should have firearms where people are drinking,” LaPiere told CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

Seems they're more sensible than David Leyonhjelm, too.

What Trump promises his base

Everything! 

Out of curiosity, I watched some of a live stream of a Trump rally from Arizona this morning.

As far as I can make out, his policy prescriptions are:

1.  I'm a winner! 

2.  guns are great;

3.  [missed the bit about Islam, so can't summarise it]

4.  I'm a winner:  look how awesome my primary wins were!

5.  the media are nasty liars

6.  build Mexican wall and Mexico will pay for it

7.  did I mention how great and awesome my win was?


8.  big tax cuts to everyone, especially the middle class*

9.  repeal Obamacare and replace it with "something better"

10.  winner!

11.  will not touch Medicare or any government benefit the sort of people who come to my rallies get

12.  something about Iran fooling the US, the US being stupid for getting involved in the Iraq/Iran balance of power in the first place, and how the US will get involved in the Middle East again to "smash" ISIS

13.  Veterans will get better healthcare

14.   re-negotiate trade deals

15.  "there will be consequences" for companies that dump American based manufacturing and go overseas**

16.  I'm a winner!  

I can't wait for this walking orange ball of contradictory thought bubbles to have to debate with someone, and with moderators, who will not let him bluster his way through his policy prescriptions. 

He is, as if we didn't already know, running on pure, thoughtless, populism;  promising that his base can "have it all", so to speak.   

*  read the extreme scepticism this has already met.

**  where's the free marketeer economists' questioning of that, I wonder

Just you wait

So, after a disastrous couple of weeks for Donald Trump, where the over-reach in his reaction to Orlando that I predicted came into effect even more spectacularly and more quickly than I expected, how is BS artist Scott Adams going with his meme about Trump being the "master persuader"?  

Well, just like the positive effects of Laffer inspired tax cuts in Kansas, it's a case of "just you wait", apparently.  He writes it's just the last hiccup in the third act of an action movie:

This isn’t the Republican nomination, where Trump could dominate. The general election is a new game. There’s no way for Trump to solve a problem this big, right?
That’s what you are supposed to think at this point in the movie.
Wait for the plot twist this summer. You’re gonna love it.

What a maroon.  

Breaking up sleep

Somewhat interesting article about whether humans are better off with "bi-phasic" sleep:

Anthropologists have found evidence that during preindustrial Europe, bi-modal sleeping was considered the norm. Sleep onset was determined not by a set bedtime, but by whether there were things to do. Historian A. Roger Ekirch’s book At day’s close: night in times past describes how households at this time retired a couple of hours after dusk, woke a few hours later for one to two hours, and then had a second sleep until dawn.

During this waking period, people would relax, ponder their dreams or have sex. Some would engage in activities like sewing, chopping wood or reading, relying on the light of the moon or oil lamps.

Ekirch found references to the first and second sleep started to disappear during the late 17th century. This is thought to have started in the upper classes in Northern Europe and filtered down to the rest of Western society over the next 200 years.

Interestingly, the appearance of sleep maintenance insomnia in the literature in the late 19th century coincides with the period where accounts of split sleep start to disappear. Thus, modern society may place unnecessary pressure on individuals that they must obtain a night of continuous consolidated sleep every night, adding to the anxiety about sleep and perpetuating the problem.

About mass shootings

6 Things Americans Should Know about Mass Shootings - Scientific American

Some good information in this article.

It's all about the hair

My God, he's a nut.  This apparently is what people in Dallas came to hear Trump say today:

Friday Spielberg

Steven Spielberg: Indiana Jones won't be killed off - BBC News

I repeat my call from some years ago (when Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was coming):  the perfect way to end Indiana Jones would be for him to be revealed as one of the people being taken up into the mothership at the end of Close Encounters.   You know it makes sense...

Trump and the lion

I'm not sure if the base image is an official Trump one, but it's a little odd, isn't it?   I think it's meant to indicate that Trump is brave like a lion, or is it that he's brave in facing off a lion?  I'm going with the former, and have added my own bit.

Still having an odd feeling about this election

Who am I to disagree with the betting markets and journalists who are already calling it for the Coalition?

The story seems to be that the national swing to (perhaps) 51/50 in favour of Labor is uneven and won't cut it for a Shorten win.

Yet still there seems considerable uncertainty as to what will happen to many seats with Greens and Xenophon playing a big role.   Not sure how Barnaby Joyce is going, but WA seems to be on the nose for the Coalition.   And we haven't even had the campaign launches yet.  Don't they count for anything any more?

It seems to me that Bill Shorten, and most Labor ministers, have looked pretty good in their TV appearances.  Scott Morrison has not.  And Turnbull - well, not entirely sure.   To be honest, I have been busy and not seeing that much on TV lately.  

But for what its worth, to me the "optics" of the situation indicate we should still not be writing off a hung parliament as a possible outcome.

Trump big with the redneck vote; not so big elsewhere

Exclusive: Armitage to back Clinton over Trump - POLITICO: Richard Armitage, the deputy secretary of state under George W. Bush, says he will vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, in one of the most dramatic signs yet that Republican national security elites are rejecting their party’s presumptive nominee.

Armitage, a retired Navy officer who also served as an assistant
secretary of defense under Ronald Reagan, is thought by Clinton aides to
be the highest-ranking former GOP national security official to openly
support Clinton over Trump.

“If Donald Trump is the nominee, I would vote for Hillary Clinton,”
Armitage told POLITICO in a brief interview. “He doesn't appear to be a
Republican, he doesn't appear to want to learn about issues. So, I’m
going to vote for Mrs. Clinton.”

Dozens of Republican foreign policy elites have already declared
their unwillingness to support or work for Trump, though far fewer say
they would cast a ballot for Clinton. The latter group includes Max
Boot, a prominent neoconservative military analyst and historian; Mark
Salter, former longtime chief of staff to Republican Sen. John McCain; and retired Army Col. Peter Mansour, a former top aide to retired Gen. David Petraeus.

Spectacular immaturity

Apprentice crew members on their old boss, Donald Trump.

I think it's been very clear from his campaign appearances that Trump is a mental teenager, and one with bullying instincts.   (His pathetic taunts to protesters about "going home to Mommy" are the best example of that.)   But it would appear that he is no better in his own workplace.  

Time to retire

McCain: Obama 'directly responsible' for Orlando shooting

He tried to walk back from it, but what a silly thing to say.

On guard

It's common dog behaviour, it seems, how they love to watch the road out the front window:

She will soon be one year old.  Still scruffy, though:

Some history of gay executions

With all the talk of Islam and its views on death for homosexuality, I wasn't entirely sure when Australia had stopped executing gays (or at least, men convicted of sodomy).

I see from various sites that the last man hanged for sodomy in Sydney was Thomas Parry in 1839, although the last "gay execution" seems to have been one in Tasmania in 1863.

I've read before of scandal in Sydney relating to what convicts were getting up to at night in their barracks, but hadn't read of this more upper class, somewhat amusing, matter before:

But it was clearly a vice that was not confined only to the lower orders. In 1836, Sydney was rocked by the Reverend Yate scandal. This involved a protégé of the very respectable Samuel Marsden who was known as the 'flogging parson' for his penchant, as a magistrate, to hand out severe sentences as a deterrent. Yate was a well known and widely published preacher in England, who had even had an audience with King William IV. On the voyage out to Sydney on the Prince Regent, Yate had spent much time in the company – and the hammock – of the third mate, Edwin Denison. When they arrived in Sydney in June of that year, the two moved into lodgings together in Park Street, where they were joined by another sailor from the Prince Regent, with the unlikely name of Dick Deck. Neighbours soon complained about the men's behaviour, and the scandal became the talk of Sydney, although the Crown Solicitor suggested that 'it seems more than probable that the crime of sodomy cannot be proved against him according to law'. By mid-December of that same year, Yate and Denison had sailed for England, much to the relief of the Anglican community in Sydney.9

Good article on Obama and Islam

The Obama Doctrine: What the President Actually Thinks About Radical Islam - The Atlantic