1. Julia Gillard has been surprisingly non-irritating and pretty gracious on her ABC gig. She seems to have really big ear lobes though.
2. It's a loss, but in terms of seats to gain for Coalition re-election, it's not going to be as big as it was for Rudd.
3. A lot of seats will be very marginal again, it seems.
4. Most undeserving (and puzzling) loss of the night: Mal Brough.
5. Worst possible outcome (no one knows if it is a possibility yet): Greens get balance of power in Senate.
6. Bob Brown is already thinking he can swing his weight around. I can't stand the man, and I think most journalists and mainstream politicians don't hold him and his tactics in high regard either.
7. Prediction: Peter Costello as Opposition Leader will still often trounce Rudd in Parliament. (Rudd is simply not a good parliamentary performer, and this will be exacerbated when he is PM.)
8. Great concession speech by Howard. What's not to like about him as a person? Appears devoid of bitterness, even when defeated by opportunist media tart (s). The contrast with Keating and Latham's post loss behaviour could not be more stark. Didn't dissolve into public self-pitying blubbering like Fraser either.
9. Of course I would say this, but: I expect community disappointment with Rudd within about 18 months. I expect Labor disappointment to start even earlier.
10. I wonder how Rudd's speech will go. Full of blather I expect.
UPDATE: Rudd seems to have decided his winner's speech is a chance to repeat all of his campaign mantras. Yes, indeed, it's lots of blather, and there seems to be a lot of "I, I, I" in it. Robot Rudd seems to fully appreciate that it will be his government.
We got him out of asking himself questions; now will he please stop saying "and you know something?"
Some of the content seems to not be all that enthusiastically greeted by the audience. Maybe some of them will wake up in the morning and say "Oh my God, I just elected a wannabe John Howard."
Ah well, life goes on.
UPDATE 2: was Rudd still working for Premier Goss when he unexpectedly lost? People need to remember that the voters of Queensland are, shall we say, different. Look at how long Bjelke Petersen hung around, and Goss and Peter Beattie's respective electoral loss and win which neither of them deserved.
There is no doubt that Rudd being a Queenslander accounts for a few percentiles of his swing in this State. But history shows Queensland voters are very fickle, and those that voted for him this time cannot be trusted to be "rusted on" even for the next election.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Ever get the feeling she doesn't like Rudd?
Take me to your leader - Ruddbot wired for power - Opinion - smh.com.au
Annabel Crabbe starts her column like this:
Annabel Crabbe starts her column like this:
Today, Australia may well elect its first android prime minister. Ruddbot has marched through this campaign like the Terminator, incorporating Coalition policies that suit him and remorselessly amputating Labor sentiments that do not. This is the happy prerogative of the machine.
Finally, the campaign gets interesting
Dispute boils over in Wentworth - smh.com.au
Award winning journalist Caroline Overington hurled abuse at Labor candidate for Wentworth George Newhouse before slapping him across the face at a polling station in Sydney's east, witnesses say.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Cancel the anti-depressants?
Newspoll predicts a cliffhanger | The Courier-Mail
One reason to be against a massive win for Labor is purely for entertainment value.
Especially with daylight saving, it can be very annoying to have the beer, a bowl of popcorn and remote control at the ready to channel surf the election coverage, only to find out it has been virtually decided by 7pm Brisbane time.
No, I don't like anyone calling it until 10.30 at the earliest.
We need a law to maximise the entertainment value of election nights: elections should only be held outside of daylight savings periods.
One reason to be against a massive win for Labor is purely for entertainment value.
Especially with daylight saving, it can be very annoying to have the beer, a bowl of popcorn and remote control at the ready to channel surf the election coverage, only to find out it has been virtually decided by 7pm Brisbane time.
No, I don't like anyone calling it until 10.30 at the earliest.
We need a law to maximise the entertainment value of election nights: elections should only be held outside of daylight savings periods.
Under darkening skies
Business confidence plunges on election uncertainty - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Like the dramatic post title? Expect more from here over the weekend. I expect to be unhappy.
Like the dramatic post title? Expect more from here over the weekend. I expect to be unhappy.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Annabel's fun column
Such a cute little piglet but then things get curly - Opinion - smh.com.au
Annabel Crabbe does a fine, funny column again today.
And at last, rather than Kevin Rudd's "ping" ad annoying me, I see Fairfax websites today are being blitzed by Liberal ads which are so bluntly negative they make me smile.
Annabel Crabbe does a fine, funny column again today.
And at last, rather than Kevin Rudd's "ping" ad annoying me, I see Fairfax websites today are being blitzed by Liberal ads which are so bluntly negative they make me smile.
Jackie's fine legacy
There must be a case to be made that Jackie Kelly was the luckiest Howard government politician ever. The surprise delivery of an "aspirational" seat to the PM, surviving the challenge and second poll, being made sports Minister for the Olympics as a reward: just the ridiculous luck of running for the right seat at the right time.
But her success made me very cynical about what it takes to be a successful politician in our democracy.
You see, how do I put this politely: based on some past experience with her, I always took the view that she was the ultimate example of the triumph of style over substance.
For all I know, she was a good local member. I don't think it takes much to do that if you have good staff, go to lots of local meetings and actually help some constituents with personal problems. All politicians work hard in terms of the time they have to put in. But a Minister? Bah.
Anyway, I find it funny (in a schadenfreude sort of way) that this current Muslim leaflet debacle has involvement from her own home (her husband). If Howard loses, what a weird set of bookends to his government Jackie will have made.
I should have emailed Howard with a warning when she won her seat. (Although I am not even sure I had an email account way back then!)
UPDATE: a perhaps even more damaging claim from the past by a Liberal about Jackie Kelly.
And she is being completely ridiculed by every commentator in the land for her performance on the media this morning. Schadenfreude overload!
Having said that: of course this doesn't make me change my vote. I wish the examples of famous Labor dirty tricks at the electorate level would come to mind, but I am sure they are there. I thought the Libs were looking at losing Lindsay anyway.
But her success made me very cynical about what it takes to be a successful politician in our democracy.
You see, how do I put this politely: based on some past experience with her, I always took the view that she was the ultimate example of the triumph of style over substance.
For all I know, she was a good local member. I don't think it takes much to do that if you have good staff, go to lots of local meetings and actually help some constituents with personal problems. All politicians work hard in terms of the time they have to put in. But a Minister? Bah.
Anyway, I find it funny (in a schadenfreude sort of way) that this current Muslim leaflet debacle has involvement from her own home (her husband). If Howard loses, what a weird set of bookends to his government Jackie will have made.
I should have emailed Howard with a warning when she won her seat. (Although I am not even sure I had an email account way back then!)
UPDATE: a perhaps even more damaging claim from the past by a Liberal about Jackie Kelly.
And she is being completely ridiculed by every commentator in the land for her performance on the media this morning. Schadenfreude overload!
Having said that: of course this doesn't make me change my vote. I wish the examples of famous Labor dirty tricks at the electorate level would come to mind, but I am sure they are there. I thought the Libs were looking at losing Lindsay anyway.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Good point
Rudd reckons it would have been easy being Howard
A pithy and accurate post by Andrew Bolt, even though I still blame him for much of the Coalition's problems in this election.
A pithy and accurate post by Andrew Bolt, even though I still blame him for much of the Coalition's problems in this election.
Red Kerry
I say there is no way anyone can credibly deny that Kerry O'Brien's approach to interviewing Rudd tonight was (yet again) less aggressive, softer and more forgiving of avoidance than his approach with Howard the night before. (Even though I thought Kerry's thanks to Howard at the end did show a degree of respect.)
For whatever reason, there has been little criticism of ABC bias in this campaign, but it's been there. The only thing I take comfort in is that even an ABC journalist like Barry Cassidy can find Rudd's tactics annoying.
For whatever reason, there has been little criticism of ABC bias in this campaign, but it's been there. The only thing I take comfort in is that even an ABC journalist like Barry Cassidy can find Rudd's tactics annoying.
Keeping Deveny happy
Australians have a chance to prove they're not all that bad - Opinion
Catherine Deveny has a column condemning one half of Australia for daring to have voted Coalition in the last few elections. It's truly eye-rolling stuff.
It's so easy to ridicule, I can't be bothered.
I will just make the point that she typifies what I have said for many years: those who support the Coalition generally think that people intending to vote Labor are simply unwise. A significant chunk of Labor supporters, on the other hand, think that those who vote for the Coalition are insanely stupid and morally depraved.
Catherine Deveny has a column condemning one half of Australia for daring to have voted Coalition in the last few elections. It's truly eye-rolling stuff.
It's so easy to ridicule, I can't be bothered.
I will just make the point that she typifies what I have said for many years: those who support the Coalition generally think that people intending to vote Labor are simply unwise. A significant chunk of Labor supporters, on the other hand, think that those who vote for the Coalition are insanely stupid and morally depraved.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Life lessons from the Duke
Like the Duke, just get on with it | Libby Purves - Times Online
Libby Purves thinks we can learn something from the attitude of Duke of Edinburgh. (Stop second guessing what could have been, and just get on with life.)
Not a bad attitude.
Tony Abbot made similar sense when he recently made the point that in times of strong employment, unhappy employees are generally better off just getting a new job elsewhere rather than seeking to punish their boss through litigation. (Of course, there are extreme cases where bosses should be pursued, but the great majority of unfair dismissal cases are not like this, I feel sure.)
I have personally seen an unfair dismissal case which followed what I suspect to be the typical pattern for small businesses:
1. young employee claims boss said "X",
2. young employee with parental encouragement and free legal assistance starts action in State Industrial Relations system;
3. at first "mediation" at the tribunal, boss strongly denies she would ever say that to anyone, and it was not the reason for ending employment anyway;
4. being honest, boss admits she did not take notes of the disputed conversation at the time. (She didn't know what was going to be alleged at that time, after all)
5. industrial relation commissioner rolls her eyes at how silly it was for boss to not have written down such details immediately;
6. boss pays employee "go away money".
Expect more of this again if Federal Labor gets in.
Parents who encourage their adult children to take such action have always bothered me. There was a much worse case I also had some involvement with years ago, where the employee performed a patently stupid and dangerous prank which resulted in physical, possibly permanent, injury to another employee. Disciplinary proceedings ensued, employee admitted he was guilty and was duly punished. Afterwards, his parents became involved in a protracted complaint about how his whole career had been mismanaged by the service. I couldn't believe it. He was (as I recall) in his early to mid-twenties, and still he has parents who are fighting his battles for him. (They made it pretty clear that they figured that his dangerous act of stupidity was somehow caused by boredom due to his career mismanagement.)
Parents with such attitudes drive me crazy. Be like the Duke. Take personal responsibility. Move forward. And encourage your children to do the same.
Libby Purves thinks we can learn something from the attitude of Duke of Edinburgh. (Stop second guessing what could have been, and just get on with life.)
Not a bad attitude.
Tony Abbot made similar sense when he recently made the point that in times of strong employment, unhappy employees are generally better off just getting a new job elsewhere rather than seeking to punish their boss through litigation. (Of course, there are extreme cases where bosses should be pursued, but the great majority of unfair dismissal cases are not like this, I feel sure.)
I have personally seen an unfair dismissal case which followed what I suspect to be the typical pattern for small businesses:
1. young employee claims boss said "X",
2. young employee with parental encouragement and free legal assistance starts action in State Industrial Relations system;
3. at first "mediation" at the tribunal, boss strongly denies she would ever say that to anyone, and it was not the reason for ending employment anyway;
4. being honest, boss admits she did not take notes of the disputed conversation at the time. (She didn't know what was going to be alleged at that time, after all)
5. industrial relation commissioner rolls her eyes at how silly it was for boss to not have written down such details immediately;
6. boss pays employee "go away money".
Expect more of this again if Federal Labor gets in.
Parents who encourage their adult children to take such action have always bothered me. There was a much worse case I also had some involvement with years ago, where the employee performed a patently stupid and dangerous prank which resulted in physical, possibly permanent, injury to another employee. Disciplinary proceedings ensued, employee admitted he was guilty and was duly punished. Afterwards, his parents became involved in a protracted complaint about how his whole career had been mismanaged by the service. I couldn't believe it. He was (as I recall) in his early to mid-twenties, and still he has parents who are fighting his battles for him. (They made it pretty clear that they figured that his dangerous act of stupidity was somehow caused by boredom due to his career mismanagement.)
Parents with such attitudes drive me crazy. Be like the Duke. Take personal responsibility. Move forward. And encourage your children to do the same.
Surge works (cross fingers)
Good news from Iraq. - By Christopher Hitchens - Slate Magazine
Hitchens summarises some of the positive reporting coming out of Iraq at the moment. When both the New York Times and the BBC carry reports like this, you know it's not just wishful right wing thinking.
Of course, a city with 5 dead bodies a day still turning up, and 16 suicide bombings a month, it is not exactly ready to start taking tourists yet. But compared to where it was...
Hitchens summarises some of the positive reporting coming out of Iraq at the moment. When both the New York Times and the BBC carry reports like this, you know it's not just wishful right wing thinking.
Of course, a city with 5 dead bodies a day still turning up, and 16 suicide bombings a month, it is not exactly ready to start taking tourists yet. But compared to where it was...
More research definitely needed
Ocean Plankton Reducing Greenhouse Gases By Using More Carbon Dioxide
This story on the possible role of plankton in helping the oceans absorb more CO2 contains this surprising statement:
The experiment this team showed that plankton did respond strongly to more CO2 dissolved in the ocean:
Still, it is somewhat surprising how preliminary the experimental research on this important area seems to be.
This story on the possible role of plankton in helping the oceans absorb more CO2 contains this surprising statement:
The world oceans are by far the largest sink of anthropogenic CO2 on our planet. Until now, they have swallowed almost half of the CO2 emitted through the burning of fossil fuels. However, can the oceans continue to alleviate the steady rise in atmospheric CO2 in the future? Current models for the development of the global climate system do not incorporate the reaction of marine organisms nor the processes that they influence.I would have thought that such models would at least have made some guesstimates about this, but it doesn't sound like it.
The experiment this team showed that plankton did respond strongly to more CO2 dissolved in the ocean:
“We expected the organisms to show distinct reactions to changing CO2 conditions. What really surprised us, however, was the dimension of this effect. Basically, we can now say that the biology in the oceans is significantly affecting the global climate system.”The downside is that more plankton sinking and decaying into the ocean might cause less oxygen at greater depth.
Still, it is somewhat surprising how preliminary the experimental research on this important area seems to be.
Image
Howard and Costello in TV love fest - Federal Election 2007 News - theage.com.au
Michelle Gratton goes too far in her scathing assessment of Howard's and Costello's joint interview last night, saying they don't even "respect" each other. Despite Costello's frustration at waiting for the top job, I think it's pretty clear that have always managed to work together, and "respect" is surely a part of being able to do that.
I don't see her spending much time on the past relationship of Rudd, Swan and Gillard.
At News Limited, George Megalogenis makes some fair criticism of Rudd's playing to the young audience. George's commentary has always been pretty fair and balanced, I think.
John Laws seems to be sitting solidly on the fence about this election, but given his decreased ratings, I'm not sure that he is seen as all that influential now anyway. What's Alan Jones been rabbiting on about in Sydney, I wonder...
The Age meanwhile, tries to revive the Iraqi wheatboard scandal, with the dishonest headline "Downer "knew" about AWB kickbacks". You've got to read the story to see that this claim is based on a former Austrade director who feels certain (but seemingly without any direct knowledge) that there must have been cables to Downer about a meeting he went to. The current Austrade is quoted as simply denying there were any such cables about that meeting, and, well, that should be the end of that, shouldn't it? Not for the editors of The Age it isn't.
The only thing to look forward to if Rudd wins is that he is clearly not left enough for The Age, and will start coping criticism of that nature soon enough.
Michelle Gratton goes too far in her scathing assessment of Howard's and Costello's joint interview last night, saying they don't even "respect" each other. Despite Costello's frustration at waiting for the top job, I think it's pretty clear that have always managed to work together, and "respect" is surely a part of being able to do that.
I don't see her spending much time on the past relationship of Rudd, Swan and Gillard.
At News Limited, George Megalogenis makes some fair criticism of Rudd's playing to the young audience. George's commentary has always been pretty fair and balanced, I think.
John Laws seems to be sitting solidly on the fence about this election, but given his decreased ratings, I'm not sure that he is seen as all that influential now anyway. What's Alan Jones been rabbiting on about in Sydney, I wonder...
The Age meanwhile, tries to revive the Iraqi wheatboard scandal, with the dishonest headline "Downer "knew" about AWB kickbacks". You've got to read the story to see that this claim is based on a former Austrade director who feels certain (but seemingly without any direct knowledge) that there must have been cables to Downer about a meeting he went to. The current Austrade is quoted as simply denying there were any such cables about that meeting, and, well, that should be the end of that, shouldn't it? Not for the editors of The Age it isn't.
The only thing to look forward to if Rudd wins is that he is clearly not left enough for The Age, and will start coping criticism of that nature soon enough.
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