Thursday, April 30, 2009

Bad news day

The global warming sites will be busy over the next few days digesting a couple of new papers in Nature talking about the huge reduction in fossil fuel use believed to be needed just to keep warming within 2 degrees:
Both papers come to the same broad conclusion, summarized in our figure, that unless humankind puts on the brakes very quickly and aggressively (i.e. global reductions of 80% by 2050), we face a high probability of driving climate beyond a 2°C threshold taken by both studies as a “danger limit”....

We feel compelled to note that even a "moderate" warming of 2°C stands a strong chance of provoking drought and storm responses that could challenge civilized society, leading potentially to the conflict and suffering that go with failed states and mass migrations. Global warming of 2°C would leave the Earth warmer than it has been in millions of years, a disruption of climate conditions that have been stable for longer than the history of human agriculture.
Well, I was hoping to buy an apartment on the moon by 2050 to avoid all that trouble, but NASA may be spoiling my contingency plans:
NASA will probably not build an outpost on the moonMovie Camera as originally planned, the agency's acting administrator, Chris Scolese, told lawmakers on Wednesday. His comments also hinted that the agency is open to putting more emphasis on human missions to destinations like Mars or a near-Earth asteroid.
This is just goofy if you ask me. Look at all the trouble with just piecing together a modestly sized space station, coming up with a new rocket to get there, and the unresolved issue of protection from deep space radiation. If you can't even work out to have a base on a place only a couple of days away from the earth, you may as well give up on Mars planning for now too.

And what will astronauts do on an asteroid that a space probe couldn't do as well?

Oh well, at least I'll be able to live in a cyberworld from my underground bunker (while the backyard bakes over summer) when Kevin Rudd's high speed internet comes on line.

Oh, wait a minute. Not even that?

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Searching this blog

Ack! I did a post today at LP suggesting people could search my blog for my ocean acidification posts. Now that I've tried that myself, I see the Search Blog function is worse than it ever was, and clearly does not list all of my posts for "ocean acidification".

To add insult to injury, I just went and added a label to each post that I could find (39 all up), but still, in Blogger, clicking on the label does not bring up all of the past posts! This is very unhelpful.

In fact, the only way I can see to find all of the posts is to do a Google Blog advanced search, asking it to find "ocean acidification" just in my blog.

This is not good. Why is the Blogger "Search blog" function so unhelpful, even with labels?

Weekend hobbies for evil tech nerds

Think twice before you go wireless - Digital Life - smh.com.au

I never use free wireless networks, but those netbooks look terribly cute, and I suspect I'll eventually own one. (Their origin was recently discussed at LP.)

Anyhow, the Sydney Morning Herald points out the security risks in using them that way:
...anyone who knows how to use Google can find step-by- step instructions on how to set up a wireless trap.

All one needs to do is find a place where tourists congregate, like a McBurger joint, and set up a wireless networking relay station on a laptop. When the tourist goes to log on to the free wireless, they can be easily duped into logging on to a bogus network.

This could be as simple as calling the fake network "McBurger Free Network". It looks and sounds legit and because the repeater computer is close by, it will likely have the strongest signal of all available networks.

It doesn't help that many networks don't use descriptive names, making the fakes seem even more authentic. Once connected, everything the tourist's computer transmits can be captured and recorded. While you sit digging the free wireless, bad guys are cleaning out your bank account.

This con also works if the bogus "hotspot" is not free because all the crooks have to do then is set up a phony payment page that captures credit card numbers. Yikes!

Well, I guess I know now how to be careful when using these, but I bet this takes a while to become common knowledge.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

The dangerous piano

Krystian Zimerman's shocking Disney Hall debut

A Polish pianist gets all political before his concert in the USA:

Before playing the final work on his recital... Zimerman sat silently at the piano for a moment, almost began to play, but then turned to the audience. In a quiet but angry voice that did not project well, he indicated that he could no longer play in a country whose military wants to control the whole world.

“Get your hands off of my country,” he said. He also made reference to the U.S. military detention camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
One reason he is a little tetchy with the USA is kind of funny, though:
Zimerman has had problems in the United States in recent years. He travels with his own Steinway piano, which he has altered himself. But shortly after 9/11, the instrument was confiscated at JFK Airport when he landed in New York to give a recital at Carnegie Hall. Thinking the glue smelled funny, the TSA decided to take no chances and destroyed the instrument.

Conspiracy nutters get the flu

Little Green Footballs - Bad Craziness Watch: Glenn Beck Fans and Swine Flu Conspiracies

Oh dear. I don't read LGF regularly enough to understand why he has become such a controversial figure in the right wing blogosphere (being against creationists can't be enough, can it?) but he does a useful service here by pointing to the conspiracy theories that Glenn Beck followers have devised about swine flu.

I also haven't watched enough Glenn Beck to decide whether or not he is a cynical actor, a nut, or (probably most likely) some undecipherable combination of both. Slate's take on him seems pretty accurate. (Looking on the bright side, even for those who can't stand Bill O'Reilly, Beck makes him look like a paradigm of cool reason.)

The main question may be: is he smart enough to worry about the nutters he attracts?

Douglas Adams was wrong

Cosmic numbers: Pauli and Jung's love of numerology - New Scientist

Hey, some interesting stuff here about a famous quantum scientist and his dealings with Jung:
Pauli was troubled by the number 137. As physicists pored over the equations that determine the spectra of the chemical elements, a particular combination of physical constants kept cropping up. Referred to as the "fine structure constant", it combined the speed of light (crucial in Einstein's relativity) and Planck's constant (the heart of quantum theory), along with the magnitude of the charge of an electron. By themselves, each of these has to be expressed in some particular units (say, metres per second for the speed of light), but combined, the result is a unitless "pure number". Arnold Somerfeld first worked out its value as 0.00729, equivalent to (roughly) 1/137.

Why 137? Pauli obsessed over it, and he wasn't the only great physicist to do so: Arthur Eddington, Enrico Fermi and Richard Feynman all took stabs at it over the years. Meanwhile Jung, with his knowledge of Kabbalah, also found enormous significance in 137. Every letter in the Hebrew alphabet has a number associated with it, and - lo and behold - the letters in the word "Kabbalah" add up to 137. Remarkable - or a meaningless coincidence.

Clearly, the answer to life, the universe and everything is not 42.

O'Rourke talks Smith

Philosophers Zone - Philosophy and The Wealth of Nations - P.J. O'Rourke

I heard most of this on the radio yesterday, and PJ was both interesting and witty. You can listen to it, or read the transcript, via the link above.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Bizarrely creative

Found via Japundit, here's a Japanese ad that is both remarkably silly and gives new meaning to "in questionable taste".

Yowie defamation

'Yowie not to blame for death' - Northern Territory News

"Cryptonaturalist": what a great job description.

On tidying the book shelves

This weekend I attacked the bookshelves which were dusty and untidy: they had never been properly re-sorted into subject areas since we moved into the current house 6 years ago. (I said to friends that now that it is done, there will probably be some reason we have to move again within 6 months and the whole 6 year cycle will start again.)

Here's the broad categories I use:

* science fiction (mostly old, since there is little written now that appeals to me. I had forgotten how complete my Robert Heinlein collection was; I have even kept his crappy later novels. But I did re-read one of his "juveniles" recently, and his style stands the test of time, I reckon.)

* other fiction (a lot of Evelyn Waugh, and a smattering of other authors, none of them very recent)

* religion (CS Lewis features prominently, but quite a few books on modern theology and religion generally, including by arch non-realist Don Cuppitt.)

* the paranormal and UFO's (are J Allen Hyneks' books still in print? They were the best of their type, but I also have Allen Hendry's great UFO Handbook.) To balance that out, I also have read Phillip Klass's skeptical books.

* philosophy and psychology (not much in the way of original works by philosophers, although I have had a stab at a little bit of Kant. Clarity of expression clearly did not count for much for philosophical fame in his day.)

* general science, including quite a few autobiographical accounts of the moon astronauts.

I guess if you've read the blog for some time, you would have worked out that these are key areas of interest.

Books I threw out in this round (if clean, they will be donated to Lifeline):

* a battered copy of Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: this deserves an award for the most over-praised book of the 20th Century. It is a book that simply made no impression on me at all, even to the extent that some years later I had to skim read it again to even be able to remember what it was about. It strikes me to this day as a slight work masquerading as a deep one. But happily, due to the wonders of the internet, I can read detailed criticism of it in support of my intuitive reaction 20 years ago. Yay.

* Shirley Hazzard's "The Great Fire": I dealt with this in detail in an earlier post, and it is never worth keeping a novel that you stronly dislike. That Bryan Appleyard thinks highly of her style is another of life's unfathomables.

* "Blindsight" by Peter Watts: yet another current science fiction writer who is essentially pessimistic and can't hold my interest.

On the upside, and further to my complaint about no current fiction writers interesting me, I have nearly finished my second Graham Greene, and there is a lot to like about his pared back style. I suspect that I may find his tortured Catholic themes a little repetitive though, but it's good to another author to work my way through.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention the category of "history", which contains mostly Paul Johnson books (not all of his work is immediately engaging, but he's a fine writer when at his best), assorted ones on World War 2, and a history of the bathroom.

I also forgot to note that I am giving away the first Lord of the Rings book. If you find even the movies tedious, not much point in keeping the novels, is there.

Reasons to doubt Plimer

Plimer unbloodied and certainly unbowed | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog

Andrew Bolt thought that last Friday's debate on Radio National didn't hurt Plimer at all. I must admit, I didn't think that Veron was very effective, but then again, as he only had the book for an hour before the exchange, you couldn't expect him to be well informed on its contents.

But the main problem was that (as I understand it) Veron is an expert on reefs, which gives him an interest in global warming, but doesn't really make him a direct expert on climate science.

One thing of note did come out, however, and that is that it appears (as I suspected) that Plimer leaves ocean acidification pretty much out of the debate. (Veron said he had trouble finding any references to it, but eventually did find a brief mention.)

Anyway, a much better refutation of Plimer's book, at least in one specific field, was on Radio National this morning. You can listen to it here.

Tim Lambert already has his list of obvious faults or omissions, and a more recent post indicating a sarcasm misfire that appears in the book.

While we are still waiting to see a more detailed review from some experienced climate scientists, I don't see any reason as to why skeptics should think that this book represents any form of breakthrough.

UPDATE: Andrew Bolt hasn't commented on this story from last week, as far as I know, but it's one that seems worthy of the attention of any AGW skeptic who wants to be taken seriously.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

How Britain is entertaining itself, etc

Go west! Gay storylines are drawing crowds to theatres in London's West End and fringe - The Independent

This lists 10 plays which are currently running in England to reasonable box office.

It seems to me that when it comes to gay themed musicals/comedy, they are usually much better reviewed (and more widely viewed) than the inherent quality deserves. It's like how Margaret and David (At the Movies) can't but help give an Australian movie an extra 1/2 to 1 star just for being Australian. I cite the movie versions of "Priscilla" and "La Cage" as examples.

The only gay drama that I can recall seeing much of was the TV version of Angels in America. The whole thing was terribly overwrought, I thought, but I seem to recall quite a few reviews pretty much agreeing with that.

Going back to gay comedy in Australia, I had the misfortune to see some of the Pam Ann Show on the Comedy Channel last week. This is very odd: a woman comedian who dresses up like a drag queen and seemingly aims for an audience mostly of gay male flight attendants. She is spectacularly unfunny, and if you look at the comments here, I am not alone in so thinking. (Best summary: "Feeble attempt to be a female (!) Bob Downe, the twist being no panache, poor scripting and no apparent talent.")

At least she goes to prove that no matter how much more sensitive people might feel gay men are, they don't as a class necessarily have any better refined taste in humour.

Determined

Drug-Sub Culture - The Latest Way to Get Cocaine Out of Colombia? Underwater. - NYTimes.com

Interesting article on (large) semi-submersibles being used to smuggle drugs.

Unexpected

BBC NEWS | Health | Statins link to healthy prostate

Statins are currently used to lower cholesterol and help prevent heart attacks and strokes.

However, there is growing evidence that the drugs also prevent cancer cells from dividing, and may even cause some cancer cells to die.

Worldwide, prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death.

The US Mayo Clinic followed 2,447 men aged 40 to 79 for nearly two decades.

They found men who took statins were three times less likely to develop prostate cancer than men who did not take the drugs.

They also found statin users were 57% less likely to develop an enlarge prostate.

A statin is included in the mooted "polypill", which (I think) was designed only with heart disease and strokes in mind. If it also has a substantial protective effect on very common prostate problems, it would be a very attractive bonus.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

A late Anzac post

Here's my late father, probably in the North Atlantic, during (or shortly after) World War II. I'm not sure who the scowling figure in the background is. (A Chief Petty Officer, perhaps?)



He was never one to speak much about his war time experiences, and as far as I know, was lucky enough to avoid major action. But it's hard to imagine from the comfortable perspective of the last 40 years the social upheaval of a World War, and our thoughts and gratitude are, naturally, richly deserved.