Honestly, it's not just because I don't want Tony Abbott to win, and everyone knows I have long disliked Kevin Rudd and did not think he deserved his win in 2007; but....
I think it's undeniable that Rudd gave
an extraordinarily self assured and good performance on his first 7.30 interview last night. I feel pretty confident that it would have been causing no small amount of anxiety in Abbott's office as they watched it.
Then this morning,
the headline in the Australian indicates Rudd doing exactly the kind of thing that I had been thinking Gillard needed to do: be seen to be "punishing" the New South Wales Right.
I am not sure what has happened at News Corp overnight, but even
Julia Gillard is getting (well deserved) credit for the grace and dignity with which she took her loss of position last week. This cannot hurt Labor overall.
And back at the ABC,
Alan Kohler makes the point I have elsewhere: Julia Gillard was remarkably unlucky in many respects (I'll do a post listing them one day), and it is certainly possible that any new government will reap the benefits of some positive changes just coming into effect now:
If the ALP loses this year it can count itself very unlucky indeed:
the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Government will have exactly encompassed the
second-biggest crash and world recession in history followed by the
slowest, most difficult recovery.
Compare that with John Howard,
who, after winning that 2001 election, governed during one of the great
economic booms in history, escaping into satisfied retirement 24 days
after the stock market peaked.
Julia Gillard, in fact, was doubly
unlucky because a key part of America's recovery from the bust that its
own credit excesses had caused was the debasement of its currency. When
the 2010 election was held on August 21, the Australian dollar exchange
rate was 89.38 US cents on its way to parity by the end of that year and
$US1.10 by mid 2011.
So by coincidence, Gillard's leadership more
or less exactly encompassed the period of Aussie dollar strength,
caused entirely by US dollar weakness. The good news is that it has
allowed 2 percentage points to come off interest rates because of low
inflation, but that didn't help Australia's first female prime minister.
I would not be surprised to see significant betting market odds moving towards Labor as a result of all of this.
Update: More news of good politics from Rudd:
Kevin Rudd has offered Tony Abbott a series of unprecedented
briefings from the nation's security chiefs as he attempts to turn the
tables on the Opposition Leader in the debate on asylum seekers.
The
Prime Minister has written to Mr Abbott promising access to the heads
of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service, the Australian Federal
Police, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation and the
Immigration Department, saying the coalition should have the latest
confidential information on people smuggling.
Rudd's approach to this is very much like Peter Beattie, I think: admit a past mistake, but move forward with a positive "we can fix it, though" attitude, and people might accept it.
And he is making Abbott look defensive and as if he is the one playing politics if he won't take the briefings on offer.
One final point: Rudd's manner of speaking last night seemed to me to have few of his old Rudd-isms. It was more direct, and (if I recall correctly) had none of his faux folkiness which so many have found annoying in the past.
Update 2: Anxiety levels are rising at Catallaxy, and the
name calling increasing. How amusing.