A proposition with which I have complete sympathy

Running a marathon is a dangerous, expensive, stupid, meaningless task. Don’t do it.

Here's a key section (not sure if I was writing it that I would bother including figures for "chafing", though):

Indeed a vast, disturbing literature has now accumulated on the ill effects of running marathons. Studies find that up to 1 in 12 participants end up seeking medical help during the race. (At
hot-weather events, runners can end up “dropping like flies.”) As many as four-fifths report having gastrointestinal problems such as bloating, cramps, vomiting, diarrhea, and fecal incontinence while on the course. Some runners suffer from blood poisoning. Others must endure a blitz of dermatological conditions: sore nipples (affecting up to 1 in 6 on race day); chafing (another 1 in 6); blisters (1 in 3); and jogger’s toe (1 in 40). Given all the risks, it’s no wonder that some marathon organizers have asked doctors to embed as race participants so they can quickly tend to runners who collapse.

When researchers consider all the injuries that accrue during the period of training—and not just on the day of the marathon itself—they find even greater cause for alarm. One study looked at 255 participants in an extended, 32-week marathon training program and found that 90 of them—that’s 35 percent—experienced “overuse” injuries. (Among the most common training ailments are anterior knee pain, Achilles tendinitis, shin splints, and stress fractures.) Another research group surveyed 725 men who raced in the 2005 Rotterdam Marathon, and found that more than half of them had sustained a running injury over the course of the year. Among those who sustained a new injury during the month leading up to the race, one-quarter were still suffering, to some extent, three months later.

Cultural notes

*  The BBC has a story about the odd, and secretive, ways that Indians go about having a drink.

*  An American survey (and not one of the silly ones done by a condom manufacturer for publicity) seems to show an apparent rise in sexual experimentation of the same-sex variety (or at least, preparedness to admit to it).  Up to about 8 percent now, and the differences between the genders is interesting.  It's a bit funny to read the "lesbian before graduation" term being used in the reports - I remember I first heard it used by Libbie Gore on one of her shows on the ABC many, many years ago - and I imagine it probably really annoys some lesbians.

*  In other survey news, I stumbled across this one when looking at the Gallop website for other reasons:

1% of russians approve of u.s. leadership, the lowest approval in the world in 2015 and the lowest approval gallup has ever recorded.

Russians are a bit of a worry, to put it mildly.

[And I reckon if you did the "have you ever had a sexual experience with a member of the same sex" survey in that country, the number would probably be "- 8%".  At least if Putin had anything to do with it.]

Fun while it lasted, I suppose

Police make first arrests over Y1.4 bil theft from ATMs ‹ Japan Today: Japan News and Discussion

This crime - stealing $12 million or so from Japanese ATMs - was the sort of one you would expect to see in a movie, committed by likeable rogues. But there were always too many people involved for it to have any hope of long term success.

Loudmouth Canadian disappointed there is no market for right wing rants and poetry

Spineless, Supine and Proud Of It — Quadrant Online

Quadrant has become the home for the Tea Party style constituents of Australian conservatism, and has painted itself into a corner where its subscribers are in the overlap section of  the Venn diagram with "people who succumb to the pleadings of the IPA for subscribers because Gina's donations have (apparently) dried up."

Look, how can proponents of the free market really complain that their "product" can't stand on its own two feet?   Especially while they keep running the argument that the ABC is ridiculously biased and doesn't present the conservative side?  Surely that means the ABC is not "crowding out" the views in their product?

I find it hard to pick between James Allan and Rowan Dean in the competition for the title of Australia's most irritating conservatives.  (Yes, I find them worse than Bolt in manner).  

Krugman considers the narrative

Good post here by Krugman, complaining about media "narratives" that don't really hold up to scrutiny. 

Big money still doesn't believe in climate change

See, I occasionally learn something from reading the Dunning-Kruger Blog (aka Catallaxy):  JC kindly quotes a Wall Street Journal editorial that praises Trump for his climate change ignoring energy "policy".

This is a real scandal, isn't it?  That the newspaper of business and big money is still, despite recent records,  denying that there is any reason to take climate change seriously.   It's like they get their science from Watts Up With That and Lomborg exclusively.

And speaking of those two ridiculous sources of advocacy, have a look at the graphs on sea levels at this post at Open Mind.    (I have posted that Lomborg illustration before - but I see the technique is repeated by others.  How can anyone take Lomborg seriously when they see this example of how disingenuously he can argue?)

And  here's the recent article about the Dunning-Kruger effect and Trump that I've been meaning to link to.

Quite right

Leaks, secrets and the really scary thing about the NBN raids

I don't fret much about meta-data access, but I reckon Holmes is right that it's ridiculous that even the recipients of a leaked NBN report are in danger of prosecution.

But this is what the fascist-lite Coalition government has acclimatised the public to.

(Need I repeat the point - for years, silly Lefties have flung about "fascist" as an all purpose complaint against Coalition Prime Ministers.  Yet when we got a Coalition government under Abbott that actually comes closest to the name, the insult has fallen out of fashion.  Strange.  Perhaps a bit of the "boy who cried wolf" effect going on?)

The nutty, nutty libertarians of America

Gary Johnson needs to leave the Libertarian Party behind.

A very amusing read here about the convention of the nuttiest political group of all - the American Libertarians.  

Slow news day

Some days, the morning scan of the internet just doesn't bring up anything all that obviously blogworthy.

So, just a bit of conservative Catholic trolling instead:  this photo will irritate them:

The story, even more so:

Pope Francis awarded medals to George Clooney, Salma Hayek and Richard Gere in recognition of their contributions to a Vatican education project.
The Hollywood stars were in Rome on Sunday at an event for the Scholas Occurentes (Schools Meet) global educational initiative that Pope Francis launched.
Scholas Occurentes works in 82 countries with 400,000 schools and other education institutions, aiming to bring together children from different cultures and religions.

Funny, isn't it, how the cultural warrior, climate change denying, conservative Catholics are less concerned about wildly erratic Donald Trump becoming President than they are about Pope Francis.

Speaking of Trump (and breaking my own complaint that there are too many words being written about him), here's someone who finds that Trump's scattergun approach to avoiding answers reminds him of his late father's early Alzheimer's strategy.   I see that Trump is 70, but you get the impression he may have always blustered like that in private.  Still, I can see how his manner does look like the avoidance strategy of someone with early dementia...

Prediction vindicated

I made a very specific prediction in September 2014 about Helen Dale's future as a high profile staffer for Senator Leyonhjelm:

Update 2:   I'll make a prediction:  she will not be in the job for more than a year or two.

And so, it has come to pass, and not even via her losing her job if Leyonhjelm fails to be re-elected in the unexpectedly early election.  Having held the position for, what, 20 months, how more accurate could I possibly be?

Says Leyonhjelm:

"I'm disappointed [Helen Dale] chose to quit in the middle of a very intense campaign, but I expected her to leave after the election anyway," Senator Leyonhjelm wrote in the email dated May 28.

In maths news

Two-hundred-terabyte maths proof is largest ever : Nature News

Well, I didn't know this:

Computer-assisted proofs too large to be directly verifiable by humans
have become commonplace, and mathematicians are familiar with computers
that solve problems in combinatorics — the study of finite discrete
structures — by checking through umpteen individual cases. Still, “200
terabytes is unbelievable”, says Ronald Graham, a mathematician at the
University of California, San Diego. The previous record-holder is
thought to be a 13-gigabyte proof², published in 2014.

And how big is a 200Tb proof?:

...roughly equivalent to all the digitized text held by the US Library of
Congress. The researchers have created a 68-gigabyte compressed version
of their solution — which would allow anyone with about 30,000 hours of
spare processor time to download, reconstruct and verify it — but a
human could never hope to read through it.

Out of sight, out of mind

The Philippines has 1.8 million abandoned children. Here's what keeps many from adoption - LA Times

It seems to me that the matter of extreme poverty in the Philippines does not get much attention in the Western media these days.  This story paints a very bleak picture of the problem there, right in Manila.

Weekend stuff

*  I reckon Jamelle Bouie at Slate is spot on about Trump:

All of this raises a question: If the media didn’t make Trump popular—if it’s actually done the reverse—then how did he win the Republican primary? One answer is that Trump has broken the rules of politics—he’s killed the dungeon master, changed the character sheets, rewritten American politics into a game of his own making. This isn’t just wrong, it buys into the myth of Trump as a force of will and power who can reshape reality to his liking.

The better explanation, the one that treats Trump like an important force but not a dispositive one, is that Donald Trump won the Republican primary because the Republican Party is broken. Years of disdain—for moderation, for compromise, for governance, expertise, and conventional qualifications—have merged with long-exploited currents of bigotry to produce an electorate primed for a man like Donald Trump. Republicans put a Trump-like figure on the 2008 presidential ticket, backed Trump-like figures in the 2012 primaries, and even solicited Trump himself for an endorsement that same year. It was only a matter of time before Republican voters clamored for the real deal.

If you trace Trump to institutional failure within the Republican Party, then it’s hard to say he can scramble the general electorate like he did the primary one. For all of its problems, the two party contest isn’t dysfunctional; Democrats will fight hard to stop Trump. CNN taking the bait and airing his bluster 24/7 isn’t going to help him.

*  The New York Times has people pointing out that Trump's "energy policy" is just empty sloganeering, with no attention to economic reality.  Apart from the matter of how long OPEC will make oil so cheap that its getting uneconomic to drill for it in parts of the US, there's the obvious contradiction of this:

One major consequence of the surge in domestic natural gas production has been a turn by electricity generators toward gas from coal. That has cost thousands of coal jobs. Yet Mr. Trump has both vowed to increase natural gas production even as he promises to restore coal jobs, scoffed Robert N. Stavins, director of the environmental economics program at Harvard.

“Trump will presumably support less regulation and other actions to encourage greater use of fracking. That would tend to lower natural gas prices,” Mr. Stavins wrote in an email. “And, therefore, Trump’s promised support of greater natural gas fracking would actually have the effect of lowering demand for coal, causing more mines to close.”

Mr. Stavins added, “He can’t have it both ways — talk up expanding natural gas supply when in North Dakota, and talk about bringing back coal mining jobs when in Kentucky!”

* As far as I can tell, Trump is getting more and more popular at Catallaxy threads - a sure sign that his appeal is to aging, sexist, white, mostly male culture warriors who are easily swayed by politicians for all the wrong reasons. 

Perhaps JC, who was getting all excited about the Trump "let the oil and gas flow" policy can explain here in comments the error in the NYT's article.

*  Speaking of stupidity at Catallaxy, here's lizzie, self confessed (actually, self proclaimed) trophy wife; nanny employing, continually jet setting mother for whom I think the term "the vanity press" might have been coined, following the Steve Kates' line:

In the popular mind, anthropogenic climate change, an unproven hypothesis, is looking less and less like a scientific proposition these days (not that it ever did to those with a critical eye), more and more like the green fable that it is.

Yes, even after "the pause" has ended quite spectacularly, Sydney having an unusually warm autumn, the Arctic ice cap looking set for a new record melt, and each year being globally hotter than the previous for - how years now? - it's more like a "green fable".   Nothing will convince her, short of her rich husband having a conversion.

*  It seemed that it was a unusual weekend for lightning in Europe, no?

The remote community problem

Just to further confound matters regarding the sad state of aboriginal affairs (particularly regarding Aurukun, which seems to have been on a long term descent into increasing dysfunction, despite much government attention), I was just listening to Warren Entsch - the straight talking Liberal with outback "cred" -  putting a lot of the blame on the education system that Noel Pearson has been championing.

Here I thought Pearson was a bit of a hero to the right side of politics, and his idea that kids finish their education at boarding schools sounds intuitively a good idea to us white folk down south.

Yet Entsch says that the kids don't have the educational and social skills to cope with the boarding school when they arrive, frequently run away and end up back in Aurukun in a more hopeless position than before.

Here's a summary of his take on the matter, from yesterday's news.

Pearson seems to be blaming other things, although I'm not sure what he expects.   Teachers up there to live in isolated camps with barbed wire around them?

But then I see today that his idea is to get many, many more kids out of Aurukun into work experience elsewhere, presumably with the (not so clearly stated) intention that they don't go back there to live:

The high-profile indigenous leader confirmed last night that in-community schooling was halted at Year 7 two years ago after his Cape York Academy was brought in to pilot welfare reform.

But Mr Pearson said there should be no going back to offering high school to Year 10, as was formerly the case in Aurukun, as this had been “extended child-minding” that had no value to stud­ents who didn’t want to be in class.

Instead, a scheme that has put eight Aurukun young people to work fruit-picking and in a South Australian abattoir should be widened to cover the “shadow group” of youths at the centre of a security scare that forced the evacuation of local primary school teachers for the second time in a month and the school to close.

“We just need to scale it up by 10,” Mr Pearson told The Australian. “Instead of eight, we need 80. And after six months of fruit-picking or on a harvest trail or in an abattoir … you will then have the basis for entry-level labourers to go on to work in a mine or in a fulltime job.
“Our problem and challenge is we have to scale up the number of youth who are taken out of an ­environment that is pretty toxic to them.”

Well, I guess this makes sense:  really,hasn't it always seemed logical that remote aboriginal communities that do not have any connection to economic activity are always likely to be full of social problems.   Put a bunch of unemployed white people in the same situation, and you wouldn't expect much different.

And even when there is just one economic activity near a remote community, such as one mine, or luxury resort, I get the impression that only a handful of the locals usually have the skill set and discipline to get a good living out of working for it. 

But Pearson's suggestion is a hell of an expensive way to try to encourage people away from living in such places.  And if they get the work experience, but end up back at Aurukun to be near kin, and just go back on welfare because there is no economic activity there, it would have been for nothing...

Local custom enforced

Swiss region: Muslim boys must shake female teachers' hands - The Jakarta Post

Can't say I am feeling any sympathy for the Muslims concerned:

The Central Islamic Council of Switzerland accused the authorities of
"grossly overstepping their competency," saying such measures won't help
integration but rather contribute to a feeling of alienation among
Muslims. The council said it would take legal action against any effort
to apply the sanctions, and ignore any fines.

It's only a handshake, for goodness sake.

Update:  mind you, ultra Orthodox Jews can be unreasonable about the proximity to women, too:

In a similar case based on religious beliefs, media reports said an 81-year-old Jewish lawyer is suing the Israeli airline El Al after being asked to move on a New York- Tel Aviv flight in December when an ultra-orthodox Jewish man objected to sitting next to her.