So, Trump has given a widely panned campaign speech from the White House (apparently supposed to be about China, but more complaining about Biden.)
Lots of people have commented on his hair being transformed into grey:
I reckon we'll have a leak from the White House soon enough - some media adviser (or Ivanka) has told Trump "maybe it's the grey haired 'elder statesman' look that explains Biden's poll numbers. Let's give it a try."
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
Singapore, democracy, and housing
Keeping on today's Asian theme, I noticed the Singaporean election result last week gave the PAP (should be PGP - Permanent Governing Party) a lower than usual 61.2% of the vote. Now that sounds more like a democracy - although I see that it still meant it got 83 out of 93 seats. And I see that it has had similar vote just above 60% a couple of times before. Hmm. Is this another stupid first past the post system? Yes, yes it is. (The link points to other aspects of the Singaporean system that work in favour of the PAP.)
Anyway, as I have said before, if you watch CNA a lot, you can't help but be impressed by the apparent technocratic and social reasonableness of the current bunch of governing PAP politicians. I'd be inclined to give up on a more representative form of democracy too if I felt it meant government in the hands of such competent sounding people. Instead, we get stuck with Smarmo (with the occasional fart smell of Mini Trump), who unfortunately is getting better approval ratings than he deserves due to his at least appearing to be on a more-or-less reasonable track regarding COVID-19.
Put me down as someone who is never likely to give him an overall tick of approval - Labor would not have handled COVID-19 substantially differently, and we might at least have something vaguely resembling Ministerial accountability under them.
But - back to Singapore. I was reading this history of their public housing success, and learnt a few things:
The government makes sure the blocks are well maintained:
Anyway, I can't wait to go back to Disneyland with the Death Penalty, but there is the matter of a certain coronavirus stuffing up my plans.
Anyway, as I have said before, if you watch CNA a lot, you can't help but be impressed by the apparent technocratic and social reasonableness of the current bunch of governing PAP politicians. I'd be inclined to give up on a more representative form of democracy too if I felt it meant government in the hands of such competent sounding people. Instead, we get stuck with Smarmo (with the occasional fart smell of Mini Trump), who unfortunately is getting better approval ratings than he deserves due to his at least appearing to be on a more-or-less reasonable track regarding COVID-19.
Put me down as someone who is never likely to give him an overall tick of approval - Labor would not have handled COVID-19 substantially differently, and we might at least have something vaguely resembling Ministerial accountability under them.
But - back to Singapore. I was reading this history of their public housing success, and learnt a few things:
While the government’s action helped solve the housing crisis, it was the decision to begin offering subsidized flats for sale in 1964 that laid the foundation for Singapore’s real-estate success. Under its “Home Ownership for the People Scheme” around 2,000 two- and three-bedroom apartments were sold to lower-middle-income citizens in a new estate in the district of Queenstown for as little as S$4,900 each. Like most HDB sales, they were offered on a 99-year lease and buyers were forbidden from reselling the property for at least five years.I find that kind of social engineering very appealing - when it works, anyway.
Once that period finished, owners of flats in prestigious complexes stood to make a sizeable profit. Even in those venerable blocks in Queenstown, an unmodernized two-bedroom unit can now sell for around S$220,000, with only 43 years left on the lease. In 2016, the total resale value of Singapore’s HDB apartments was estimated to be more than S$400 billion.
The blocks were built in neighborhood clusters – miniature new towns with playgrounds, food centers and local shops. The larger ones, like Queenstown, had a health clinic, a community center and a library. And like most things in Singapore’s meticulously planned economy, the management of the estates was integrated into policies that included everything from the design of the city’s mass transit system to racial integration.
In a policy that began in 1989, HDB blocks require minimum levels of occupancy of each of the main ethnic groups in the city — Chinese, Malay and Indian — to prevent the formation of “racial enclaves.” The government continues to implement what one senior minister once called the “most intrusive social policy in Singapore” to encourage social harmony.
The government makes sure the blocks are well maintained:
While many governments have focused public housing programs on the poorest members of society—often allowing the austere concrete blocks to deteriorate into urban slums—Singapore recognized that these homes represented the biggest stake its citizens had in the prosperity of the country. The HDB not only maintained its buildings and grounds carefully, but periodically upgraded estates with new elevators, walkways and facelifts.And how is this for a bit of "that's not how government is supposed to work!" PAP policy:
The potential financial gain from the value of the flats became so important to the nation’s citizens that it was used as a political tool, with the ruling People’s Action Party in the 1980s announcing that it would prioritize maintenance of estates in constituencies that elected a PAP member. The party has never lost a general election.I don't think I had heard this before - but residents now get built in bomb shelters too!:
As the illustrated floor plan above shows, many have a store room, which, in all apartments built since 1996, has become a bomb shelter with reinforced concrete walls and a massive steel door to protect the occupants in case the Republic is attacked.Gee.
Anyway, I can't wait to go back to Disneyland with the Death Penalty, but there is the matter of a certain coronavirus stuffing up my plans.
What a year we're having...
I think it was obvious from years of watching Mythbusters that he must have been a likeable guy in real life, and because of that (as well as his age, the suddenness, and - more selfishly - the uncomfortable feeling this gives that an aneurysm time bomb could be in anyone's head) makes this more upsetting than the average celebrity death:
Super huff
That's a very huffy look from Trump while taking questions today:
Incidentally, you can see where he got this bit of "whataboutism" from - Fox News had an article about it a few days ago:
Incidentally, you can see where he got this bit of "whataboutism" from - Fox News had an article about it a few days ago:
However, during the 2009 swine flu pandemic, the Obama administration suddenly told states to shut down their testing, without providing much in the way of explanation. And, Biden's top advisor at the time has acknowledged that the Obama administration didn't do "anything right" to combat that pandemic, before walking back those comments.As David Roberts said recently, the Republicans and conservatives have virtually no arguments that don't come down to "whataboutism". It's a style of argument that appeals particularly strongly to a chronic narcissist.
The record seemingly complicates Biden's claims, in advertising and speeches, that he would have handled state-level coronavirus testing more effectively than the current White House.
Pollution in Indonesia
Seeing I am in the mood for South East Asian talk, I watched this recent document from Germany on a very polluted river in Indonesia:
Most of the chemical pollution is from the textile industry, which seems to have dozens of factories lining this river.
I missed a few minutes, but my son said that one factory guy's attitude was that as long as the waste water didn't make your hand feel itchy, it was OK to release into the river! And then there was the rice contamination. All very bad, and rather unclear how much the government might be doing to make and enforce standards.
So, there's another thing to feel guilty about: apparently, Uniqlo (my preferred place to buy casual shirts) sources a lot of its material from these Indonesian factories. (Also H&M, but its clothes seem designed for 20 year old stick insects, so I don't buy from them.)
Most of the chemical pollution is from the textile industry, which seems to have dozens of factories lining this river.
I missed a few minutes, but my son said that one factory guy's attitude was that as long as the waste water didn't make your hand feel itchy, it was OK to release into the river! And then there was the rice contamination. All very bad, and rather unclear how much the government might be doing to make and enforce standards.
So, there's another thing to feel guilty about: apparently, Uniqlo (my preferred place to buy casual shirts) sources a lot of its material from these Indonesian factories. (Also H&M, but its clothes seem designed for 20 year old stick insects, so I don't buy from them.)
Rubbery figures
Yesterday's story about Top Glove in Malaysia making lots of money from the heightened demand for medical rubber gloves made me realise that I didn't really know where most of the world's rubber now comes from. The perfect question for the internet!
World Atlas has this table:
I wouldn't have guessed that China now produces more rubber than Malaysia.
Actually, those figures are just for 2013, and I see that other sites say that the top three are Thailand, Indonesia, then Malaysia (and the amount produced by countries 3 to 6 in the table above are pretty close - so maybe 2013 was just a bad year for Malaysian rubber plantations for some reason?)
Anyway, not sure I knew this bit of rubber trivia:
I might have guessed that the rubber glove industry doing well would mean that the price of natural rubber would be holding up. But I guess it only uses a tiny amount in the big picture. Hence The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries has this bit of not so great news:
World Atlas has this table:
I wouldn't have guessed that China now produces more rubber than Malaysia.
Actually, those figures are just for 2013, and I see that other sites say that the top three are Thailand, Indonesia, then Malaysia (and the amount produced by countries 3 to 6 in the table above are pretty close - so maybe 2013 was just a bad year for Malaysian rubber plantations for some reason?)
Anyway, not sure I knew this bit of rubber trivia:
Although the Hevea tree is native to South America, cultivation there is limited due to the high prevalence of leaf blight diseases and other natural predators.See - globalisation is good.
I might have guessed that the rubber glove industry doing well would mean that the price of natural rubber would be holding up. But I guess it only uses a tiny amount in the big picture. Hence The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries has this bit of not so great news:
The key factor behind the abnormal fall in the prices of natural rubber (NR) since mid-January is the huge drop in the world demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The world consumption of NR dropped by 15.7% during H1 2020 (Jan-Jun 2020) as per the revised estimates. In China, the country accounting 40% of the world demand, the consumption fell by 20.1% during H1 2020.Now that I am on a rubber bender, so to speak, reading up on the history of the product, I see that Brazil was the victim of, well, if not industrial espionage, certainly undercover dirty business (there are a lot of similar examples from other products, over the centuries):
It is relieving to observe that the worst is almost over as far as the world consumption of NR is concerned. The world consumption is now set to enter positive territory by increasing 1.4%, year-on-year, during Q3 2020 (Jul-Sep). The consumption in China, in particular, is expected to increase by 0.8%, year-on-year, during the same quarter. Although the International Monitory Fund a week ago has further scaled down the global economic outlook for 2020, to -4.9% growth from -3.0% projected in April, the consumption sector of NR has almost returned to normal with the exception of a few countries.
From 1850 to 1920, businessmen were pushing entrepreneurs and traders to increase the amount of rubber extracted from Amazonian trees. During this period, the Brazilian Amazon was the only source of rubber and they controlled the price, making rubber expensive. At the same time, as more and more industry was developing in Europe and USA, more uses for rubber were being found [4]. Rubber was such an important material for Brazilians that they prohibited the export of rubber seeds or seedlings. However, in 1876, H. A. Wickham managed to smuggle 70,000 rubber seeds, hidden in banana leaves, and brought them to England. From those seeds, only 1,900 seedlings survived and were sent to Malaysia to start the first rubber plantations in Asia. This marked the beginning of the end for Brazil as the world’s main rubber producer.
Monday, July 13, 2020
Monday, kind of depressing, stuff
* So even the most corrupt Attorney General we've seen in a lifetime thought Trump's commutation of Stone would be corrupt? Mitt Romney's reaction makes me like him, and Mormons, all the more. There is just no debating this as corruption of historic proportions.
* Saw a tweet indicating the thickness of Arctic ice at the moment is pointing to a very low figure for ice extent by September. Really looks like it may break the 2012 record - which in a way is not a bad thing, in terms of focussing the public's attention on global warming:
* Remember I posted recently how I had started watching some off beat travel vlogs on Youtube by middle aged English guy "Bald and Bankrupt"? On the weekend, he posted a short video explaining that he had, foolishly by his own admission, travelled to Serbia after the start of COVID 19 and caught it there. Became very ill, was hospitalised, got to watch other patients dying around him, still feels very weak, and remarked how it seems to have even affected the, um, normal operation of his penis (!). The guy is, I think, 45, so it's a cautionary tale of how ill it can make even the relatively young. Oh - I see it seems he took down the video? Or is it back up? Dunno what's going on. Also, it seems he has been popular for a long time - he seems very well known on Reddit.
* If you want one, sort of, good thing that has come out of COVID-19: if you had shares in the Malaysian company Top Glove, the biggest medical glove manufacturer in the world, you would be doing very well:
I'm sort of happy to see a Malaysian company doing well - at the political level, on the other hand, they're still jerks:
* Saw a tweet indicating the thickness of Arctic ice at the moment is pointing to a very low figure for ice extent by September. Really looks like it may break the 2012 record - which in a way is not a bad thing, in terms of focussing the public's attention on global warming:
* Remember I posted recently how I had started watching some off beat travel vlogs on Youtube by middle aged English guy "Bald and Bankrupt"? On the weekend, he posted a short video explaining that he had, foolishly by his own admission, travelled to Serbia after the start of COVID 19 and caught it there. Became very ill, was hospitalised, got to watch other patients dying around him, still feels very weak, and remarked how it seems to have even affected the, um, normal operation of his penis (!). The guy is, I think, 45, so it's a cautionary tale of how ill it can make even the relatively young. Oh - I see it seems he took down the video? Or is it back up? Dunno what's going on. Also, it seems he has been popular for a long time - he seems very well known on Reddit.
* If you want one, sort of, good thing that has come out of COVID-19: if you had shares in the Malaysian company Top Glove, the biggest medical glove manufacturer in the world, you would be doing very well:
I'm sort of happy to see a Malaysian company doing well - at the political level, on the other hand, they're still jerks:
Six journalists including five Australians are being interrogated by Malaysian authorities who have accused them of sedition and defamation after the broadcast of a documentary about migrant workers in Kuala Lumpur during Covid-19.
Friday, July 10, 2020
Debating debates
So, Jazz Shaw at Hot Air thinks that it's Democrats who are fearful of Biden debating Trump:
As I have said before, in 2016 Trump got away with mouthing general motherhood statements about America and playing up to the Right's decades long vilification of Hillary Clinton.
He cannot take the same approach against Biden, a white male for whom polling is indicating Republican thrown mud is not sticking. Trump has been showing increasing emotional fragility in his tweets, and there is a wealth of broken promises and lies made while in the job that can be listed against him. Yes, he can and will say black is white, and his cult followers may believe him, but it will not likely work with those that he needs to swing back to him to win another election.
And, of course, people are exaggerating the significance of verbal stumbles make by Biden.
I had read that the Trump team had been asking for more debates, not fewer; and that this is normally a tactic taken by the underdog. I think that this is just a sign of bravado on the part of team Trump, and that there will be people who are thinking the same way I am - that Trump's at risk of falling apart in debates against Biden, and they should be looking at a way of getting out of them.
Update: someone wrote this in WAPO about Trump and debates on 26 June -
It’s a highly uncomfortable subject for Democrats and their media allies, but it’s also a glaringly obvious truth. Nobody supporting Joe Biden wants to see him go into a debate with Donald Trump. Biden can barely manage reading a teleprompter in front of a camera in his own basement these days, even if he has multiple chances to get the words right. And his “aw, shucks” Uncle Joe routine probably won’t look very impressive when he has to answer a barbed attack. The fact is that Trump is just 100% Trump every minute he’s on camera. This has many liberals frightened of the prospect of a presidential debate between these two.I think this is delusional.
As I have said before, in 2016 Trump got away with mouthing general motherhood statements about America and playing up to the Right's decades long vilification of Hillary Clinton.
He cannot take the same approach against Biden, a white male for whom polling is indicating Republican thrown mud is not sticking. Trump has been showing increasing emotional fragility in his tweets, and there is a wealth of broken promises and lies made while in the job that can be listed against him. Yes, he can and will say black is white, and his cult followers may believe him, but it will not likely work with those that he needs to swing back to him to win another election.
And, of course, people are exaggerating the significance of verbal stumbles make by Biden.
I had read that the Trump team had been asking for more debates, not fewer; and that this is normally a tactic taken by the underdog. I think that this is just a sign of bravado on the part of team Trump, and that there will be people who are thinking the same way I am - that Trump's at risk of falling apart in debates against Biden, and they should be looking at a way of getting out of them.
Update: someone wrote this in WAPO about Trump and debates on 26 June -
That last paragraph is hilariously improbable.History also gives him reason to be wary. Sitting presidents — among them, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Barack Obama in 2012 — often stumble in their first debates because they arrived both overconfident and out of practice.This year, the stakes for Trump could hardly be higher. His poll numbers are dropping, and there are signs that even Trump’s bluster-loving base is starting to have its doubts about him, now that it is seeing how he handles himself in a real crisis.So as he looks ahead to the debates, the embattled president might want to focus on winning the old-fashioned way: by studying the issues, showing up prepared and commanding the facts.
A very obvious point
And surely their [White House press secretaries] salary is not high enough for this kind of credibility debasement?:
American failure
A good detailed piece in New York Magazine on the American failure to control COVID 19.
The only bit I am annoyed with is this:
I more or less agree with this, though:
The only bit I am annoyed with is this:
With the exception, perhaps, of New Zealand, practically speaking, across the entire west, nobody has managed to properly and preemptively prepare for this pandemic.I think Australia deserves some credit.
I more or less agree with this, though:
The first failure is one of hubris: Western nations looking on a disease outbreak in Asia and feeling protected by a sense of cultural superiority and wealth, and disregarding the emergency response in China and other nations as a reflection not of the seriousness of the disease but of an imagined, innate conformist authoritarianism. The second is a bit harder to name, but it does seem peculiarly American — a pattern of failure following failure, with each successive failure normalized by the last, which should have shaken us out of complacency.Update: more on the American problem. Or should we just be calling it - the American problem caused by the American Right?:
Ohio state Rep. Nino Vitale is urging his constituents not to get tested for the coronavirus, flouting advice from health officials — and from another Republican lawmaker, Gov. Mike DeWine.
"This is what happens when people go crazy and get tested," Vitale wrote on Facebook this week. "STOP GETTING TESTED!"
Vitale was evidently incensed by an order from DeWine and state health officials that people in seven Ohio counties with severe outbreaks must wear face coverings when out in public. That order took effect Wednesday.
Vitale shared an altered graphic about the order — in that version, there is an extra message at the bottom:
"!! NEVER GET TESTED !!"
About those Shellenberger claims
Michael Tobis, who has always been worth reading on climate change, has a detailed assessment at Real Climate of the highly dubious "facts few people know" by Shellenberger.
Good stuff.
Good stuff.
Thursday, July 09, 2020
May help explain the 21st century becoming the Asian century
Over in Korea:
But in the USA:
Update: the hypothesis - Americans' love of individualism and liberty to believe anything is ill-equipped to deal with the paranoid conspiracy and disinformation spreading effect of the communication-system-on-steroids that is the internet; so Asian communitarianism just has to sit it out while the USA weakens itself with self-seeded stupidity.
But in the USA:
Update: the hypothesis - Americans' love of individualism and liberty to believe anything is ill-equipped to deal with the paranoid conspiracy and disinformation spreading effect of the communication-system-on-steroids that is the internet; so Asian communitarianism just has to sit it out while the USA weakens itself with self-seeded stupidity.
Such a complicated virus
Of course, I can safely predict this will not influence Adam Creighton or Sky News at all:
He's talking a UK report that the number of total deaths in the last couple of weeks there are below the 5 year average for the time of year - almost certainly because COVID "brought forward" the deaths of a lot of elderly people. Has he ever read anything about the uncertainty of ongoing ill health for a number of people who didn't die from it?
Doctors may be missing signs of serious and potentially fatal brain disorders triggered by coronavirus, as they emerge in mildly affected or recovering patients, scientists have warned.Update: yes, here's Adam:
Neurologists are on Wednesday publishing details of more than 40 UK Covid-19 patients whose complications ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. In some cases, the neurological problem was the patient’s first and main symptom.
The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. One woman, who was 59, died of the complication.
A dozen patients had inflammation of the central nervous system, 10 had brain disease with delirium or psychosis, eight had strokes and a further eight had peripheral nerve problems, mostly diagnosed as Guillain-Barré syndrome, an immune reaction that attacks the nerves and causes paralysis. It is fatal in 5% of cases.
“We’re seeing things in the way Covid-19 affects the brain that we haven’t seen before with other viruses,” said Michael Zandi, a senior author on the study and a consultant at the institute and University College London Hospitals NHS foundation trust.
“What we’ve seen with some of these Adem patients, and in other patients, is you can have severe neurology, you can be quite sick, but actually have trivial lung disease,” he added.
He's talking a UK report that the number of total deaths in the last couple of weeks there are below the 5 year average for the time of year - almost certainly because COVID "brought forward" the deaths of a lot of elderly people. Has he ever read anything about the uncertainty of ongoing ill health for a number of people who didn't die from it?
If anyone is interested...
....in comments in moderation which I won't release, Graeme is really going off like (as they say) a frog in a sock about criticism of Joe McCarthy, because (of course) Jews.
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