Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Another good Neo Neocon post

neo-neocon: And what does Ariel Sharon have to say about it all?

This one deals with Ariel Sharon's views on the basic issue behing the Palestinian/Israeli conflict, as noted in a New Yorker article from the start of the year. Interesting reading as always on Neo Neocon.

No need to actually read him now

The New Yorker: The Critics: Books

Don't know much about Samuel Beckett and his works? Me neither, but I know more now having read the above article. The author seemingly admires Beckett, but many of his comments do nothing to encourage this blogger to actually read him:

Emptying his books of plot, descriptions, scene, and character, Beckett is said to have killed off the novel—or else, by showing how it could thrive on self-sabotage, insured its future....

One of the most purposely obscure writers of the last century has become all things to all people...

The Beckett of the novels is not a very efficient writer—exhaustion is his method—but he can probably condense more cackling blasphemies onto a single page than anyone else....

...Beckett is, however, a hard read. His plays continue to be performed, but as a novelist—and he considered playwriting “mainly a recreation from working on the novel”—he is increasingly more honored than read. This is too bad, because Beckett’s fiction, whether or not it is the summit of his achievement, is its heart. Meanwhile, vague and grand ideas about Beckett flourish because he goes unread. “A voice comes to one in the dark”: this, the first line of the late novella “Company,” also describes the ideal situation of his contemporary reader, as innocent and as apprehensive as that, as ready to be startled. Strange stuff, this work, that life.

The article usefully extracts some bits from Beckett's novels, just to confirm how tiresome reading him can be:

Here he moved, to and fro, from the door to the window, from the window to the door; from the window to the door, from the door to the window; from the fire to the bed, from the bed to the fire; from the bed to the fire, from the fire to the bed; from the door to the fire, from the fire to the door . . .

Think Beckett can’t go on? He can go on. In this case, for another thirty lines.

Good of the New Yorker to confirm a suspicion that I am not missing anything, other than tedium.

Monday, July 31, 2006

Weather talk

Reuters AlertNet - US hurricane expert stirs global warming debate

Seems it's still not clear whether hurricanes are worse than before.

In Brisbane, it seems to have been a mild winter. Roses here can flower all year around (if you don't do a winter prune), although they obviously slow down in winter, and the buds take a long time to open. This last couple of weeks, a couple of the rose bushes in my yard have had a sudden flush of blooms. I also noticed a neighbours tree that looks something like a flowering plum or peach is starting to bloom. All signs, I think, that it has indeed been a milder winter. Summer could be a stinker, it seems.

The strange world of the placebo

Nothing can cure you - Health - Times Online

The link is to an interesting story on the placebo effect, and in particular how it is a large part of the complementary medicine story.

It does seem odd that an effect that is known to be quite powerful cannot really be used by doctors due to ethical/legal issues. (This didn't stop Dr House on the TV show "House" using it last week, though.)

One study is mentioned in the report which I think may have missed at the time:

Four years ago, a big study examined two popular treatments for depression: the herbal remedy St John’s Wort, the antidepressant tablet Zoloft, and a placebo. It revealed, amazingly, that the placebo was more effective than both of them.

Is there any way around the problems of how you could allow placebo to be legitimately used beyond the confines of medical studies? It would be tricky, I know, but it does seem a pity that only fictional doctors ever do it.

Saturday, July 29, 2006

Friday, July 28, 2006

On the Shia/Sunni divide

The Tablet

The link is to a pretty good article in The Tablet talking about the Shia in the Middle East, and what the future may hold. As a summary of who is where, and who holds political power, this paragraph is useful:

Shia beliefs are held by perhaps one in 10 Muslims today - some 140 million people. Only Iran is overwhelmingly Shia, where they form 90 per cent of the population. Across the Persian Gulf, the littoral states with significant proportions of Shia include Kuwait, with 30 per cent of its population, Bahrain with 75 per cent, Saudi Arabia with 10 per cent, Qatar with 16 per cent and the United Arab Emirates with just 6 per cent. Approximately half of all Shia live in the arc beginning in Lebanon, with 45 per cent of its population being Shia, and ranging through Iraq with 60 per cent, Azerbaijan with 75 per cent, Afghanistan with 20 per cent to Pakistan, also with some 20 per cent.

In Syria, the ruling elite is Alawite, a Shia- affiliated group with just 15 per cent of the country's people. Alawite domination has bred deep resentment among many of Syria's Sunni Muslims who constitute 70 per cent of the population. Uprisings by Sunni Islamists in the early 1980s were partly fuelled by this sectarian divide.

The author suggests that (as I had said somewhere in comments before), the invasion of Iraq should logically be only a positive to Iran, due to the empowerment that it gave to Iraqi Shia:

Despite the history of Iraqi nationalism, Arab and Persian mutual suspicion and the legacy of the Iran-Iraq war, Iran is not displeased with the changes in the region and will not want to "rock the boat" irredeemably. Before recent changes, Iran considered itself surrounded by hostile Sunni states: Iraq and Saudi Arabia to the West and Afghanistan and Pakistan to the East. It would not want to see "anti-Iranian Arab nationalism" championed by Sunnis to emerge as a threat.

But if that is the case, why is it acting so belligerently about the having an un-monitored nuclear enrichment program?

The superconducting future

Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: A Power Grid for the Hydrogen Economy

This is a very futuristic sounding idea for a superconducting electricity grid that is cooled by hydrogen. Thus the grid distributes hydrogen as well as electricity. (It is also going to involve new, better designed, nuclear power stations.)

Sounds technically challenging, but still, the future has to start somewhere.

The Economist discusses "proportionality"

The ethics of war | Mind those proportions | Economist.com

It's of some interest.

Have spacesuit will travel

New Scientist SPACE - Future spacesuits could heal themselves

The spacesuit would be self-healing because its innermost layer, which provides the spacesuit's airtight seal, is filled with a thick polymer gel. The rubber-like gel is sandwiched between two thin layers of polyurethane so that if a hole forms in these layers, the gel oozes from surrounding areas to plug it. In vacuum chamber tests, the gel healed punctures up to 2 millimetres wide.

Cool.

One other problem for new lunar spacesuits: accounts of the Apollo missions made it clear that a significant problem was the amount of moon dirt that stuck to the suits and got dragged into the Lunar Module. From another article:

The moonwalkers of the 1960s struggled with the fine, powdery dust that covered their spacesuits. Back inside their tiny one-room cabin, it got everywhere-in the machinery, in their eyes, in their throats.

Scott said that moon dust even got in the connectors between the backpack and the spacesuits."You could almost hear them grind after three days," he said. He ranks dust as "the major problem for a long stay."

I assume that for a habitat on the Moon, they will have to devise some decent way of getting fine dirt off the suits so it is not dragged in through the airlock. (The Apollo lunar module did not have an airlock at all, which was a major problem. ) But even with an airlock, seems to me there will still be a problem unless you can use some fluid or cleaning device of some kind to use. Would a really efficient vacuum cleaner work?

UPDATE: by co-incidence, I just found this snippet about the Apollo spacesuits in a Tech Central Station article (it's a review of a book for kids about the Apollo program):

A central theme of Team Moon is that a large number of people -- the 400,000 of the subtitle -- pooled their talents to make the mission happen. These included, for instance, the seamstresses of the spacesuits worn by the astronauts. The suits consisted of 22 layers of materials such as Mylar and neoprene-coated nylon that were stitched and glued together by a team at the company ILC Dover. Team members had a great deal of confidence in the extensively tested suits, but still felt pangs of worry when, as recalled by seamstress Eleanor Foracker, "the guys on the moon started jumping up and down."

Insects displaying common sense

ScienceDaily: Male Praying Mantids Prefer Not To Be Victims Of Sexual Cannibalism

Gotta love a headline like that. From the article:

Lelito and Brown thus varied female hunger and physical orientation in order to assess how male mantids respond to variation in the risk of cannibalism. They found that males responded to greater risk by slowing their approach, increasing courtship behavior, and mounting from a greater – and possibly safer – distance.

"This shows that male mantids actively assess variation in risk and change their behavior to reduce the chance of being cannibalized," explains Brown. "Males are clearly not complicit, and the act of sexual cannibalism in praying mantids is an example of extreme conflict between the sexes."

Good to know.

My suggestion for the Iranian problem

With regards to Iran and its nuclear program, I wonder whether the use of an electro magnetic pulse via either a nuclear explosion or a conventional "electronic bomb" has been discussed in Washington. It doesn't seem clear how far advanced the US is with non nuclear e-bombs, but there is a lengthy Australian article about them here. A short New Scientist article is here.

Last year, the US Senate thought about the possible consequences of a nuclear EMP attack from Iran on the United States, and some right wing Christian websites made much of it for a time (possibly that was all a beat up).

But I can't find anywhere yet that has discussed an attack in the opposite direction. Using such weapons against Iran as a first attempt to dissuade from the nuclear research would have many advantages. A nuclear EMP attack seems too big; by the sounds of it, if done at high enough altitude (which basically means in space) the effects on the power grid could extend well into neighbouring countries. If done at night, the giant glowing cloud in the sky shoud have considerable psychological impact though.

OK, first attempt could be by non nuclear e-bombs, which (as far as I can tell) detonate high above the targets and are largely non lethal on the ground (unless you use a pace maker, perhaps). It would seem that non nuclear ones would have a much narrower affected area.

The hope would be to fry all of the electronic equipment in the labs, and the power supply to them, without ruining the entire country's power supply. If such bombs can be delivered by cruise missiles, so much the better. If Iran laughs that off, then how about a really small nuclear one not too high over a desert area?

I trust no one from Iran reads this blog.

UPDATE: just to clarify, when I talk of a small nuclear one over a desert area, I am talking at high-ish altitude for the purpose of demonstrating EMP. I am not suggesting a nuclear strike on the ground. The nuclear EMP that is talked about most often, the Starfish Prime test in 1962, was well out into space, and didn't do satellites much good either. The Wikipedia entry on this is really good. Another Wikipedia entry talks about other high altitude tests in the 1960's - I didn't realise that so much had gone on at the time. Another long entry on EMP from nuclear devices is here. Seems the lowest altitude mentioned is about 40km, well below earth orbit.

Anyway, obviously a nuclear explosion anywhere in the atmosphere is not going to go over well with the Greenies or the UN. Also, it seems that the effectiveness of any EMP attack (non nuclear or nuclear) is going to be very hard to judge for the attacking country. (Especially if you are attacking underground facilities.) I wonder if that is the biggest disadvantage they have?

All interesting stuff for armchair generals to think about in any case.

Thursday, July 27, 2006

A way to escape the end of the universe?

[hep-th/0607137] Some notes on the Big Trip

There's some unusual stuff to be found at arXiv.

Can't say that I had heard of the "Big Trip" before. From the paper itself:

Rather bizarre implications from dark energy models are now being considered that might ultimately make the
future of the universe sings a somehow weird melody. It has been in fact recently proposed [1] that if the current value of the equation-of-state parameter w would keep up being less than -1 in the future, then the throat radius of naturally existing wormholes could grow large enough to engulf the entire universe itself, before this reached the so called big rip singularity [2], at least for an asymptotic observer. This rather astonishing result - which has been dubbed the ”big trip” - has proved to be not free from a number of difficulties...

It will be seen that none of the problems (1), (3) and (4) indeed hold for the asymptotic observer, and that problem (2) is a debatable one and might require considering the big trip to take place within the context of a multiverse scenario.

The whole universe disappearing down a worm hole. That would be something to see.

Why Lance Armstrong got better?

BBC NEWS | Health | Heat may be key to cancer therapy

The theory is that cancer cells from testicular cancer are more susceptible to heat, given that their original home is a few degrees cooler than the rest of the body. Sounds plausible.

This reminds me, I am pretty sure there was an Arthur C Clarke novel in which brief mention was made of human males in the future no longer having external genitalia, including testes. The difference between men and women only became obvious on arousal. I think that this was the result of genetic manipulation to improve the design of males. (I hope this is a real memory and I am not relaying some stupid dream!) It seemed to me a very unlikely thing to bother genetically manipulating.

I think it was also Clarke who mentioned a character putting a cream on his face to inhibit beard growth (instead of shaving.) I think of that quite often as I shave in the morning, as it strikes me as a product that sounds a likely prediction, but turns out to be far off the mark.

It's funny how the mind can keep remembering some of the most minor details of novels.

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Hope for young soldier

Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | Palestinian groups agree deal for return of Israeli

From the Guardian:

Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, have agreed to stop firing rockets at Israel and to free a captured Israeli soldier in a deal brokered by Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president.

The deal, agreed on Sunday, is to halt the rocket attacks in return for a cessation of Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip, and to release Corporal Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier captured on June 25, in exchange for the freeing of Palestinian prisoners at some point in the future.

An adviser to Mr Abbas told the Guardian that all Palestinian politicians were united on the need to free the Israeli soldier and stop all violence in Gaza, but the obstacles were the Israeli government and the Hamas leadership in Damascus.

I don't understand

Independent Online Edition > Health Medical

Because I can't get free access to this report, or to the BMJ article, I can only see this introduction, and I don't see how his argument works:

A leading doctor has accused Western plastic surgeons who perform cosmetic surgery on the vagina of undermining the battle against female circumcision in other parts of the world.

Writing in the British Medical Journal, Ronan Conroy, senior lecturer at the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, says the growing acceptance in Britain and elsewhere of so-called "designer vaginas" was exposing Western double standards.

I mean, aren't "designer vaginas" intended to enhance function, and female circumcision doing the exact opposite?

Everything in moderation

ScienceDaily: Light To Moderate Drinking Reduces Risk Of Cardiac Events, Death

OK, maybe you knew that before, but a new study confirming it doesn't hurt.

This one points out that the idea that the cardiac benefits of alcohol may be due to its effect on inflammation doesn't seen right. It seems that no one yet knows clearly why it does work:

The findings indicate that the anti-inflammatory properties of alcohol alone do not explain the reduced risk of death or cardiovascular disease associated with light to moderate drinking, the authors write. Alcohol may have cellular or molecular effects that reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, or it may interact with genetic factors to produce a protective effect.

The health effects of alcohol may not be the same for everyone, the authors caution. "The net benefit of light to moderate alcohol consumption may vary as a function of sex, race and background cardiovascular risk," they conclude.

Mark Steyn on the Middle East

Mark Steyn: If only they had refused to indulge Arafat | News | The Australian

All of the article is good Steyn stuff. An extract:

For the first quarter-century of Israel's existence, the Arab states fought more or less conventional wars against the Zionists and kept losing. So then they figured it was easier to anoint a terrorist movement and in 1974 declared Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organisation to be the "sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people", which is quite a claim for an organisation then barely a decade old. Amazingly, the Arab League persuaded the UN, the EU, Bill Clinton and everyone else to go along with it and to treat the old monster as a head of state who lacked only a state to head.

It's true that many nationalist movements have found it convenient to adopt the guise of terrorists.

But, as the Palestinian movement descended from airline hijackings to the intifada to self-detonating in pizza parlours, it never occurred to its glamorous patrons to wonder if maybe this was, in fact, a terrorist movement conveniently adopting the guise of nationalism.

It must cause Phillip Adams chest pains

Many, er, happy returns, PM | Matt Price | The Australian

Matt Price makes this comment in his short piece on John Howard's birthday:

These days the Prime Minister is routinely mobbed during public appearances and Wood reckons more than 400 people from a mix of community groups will make it for a cuppa with the birthday boy.

"You normally get a high proportion of no-shows, but practically everyone we asked is turning up," said Wood.

Insert own joke about sheep being confused

Wig and robes not enough

From the story above:

A PROMINENT New Zealand lawyer - bald and moustachioed - turned up to court wearing a skirt and blouse and carrying a handbag to protest what he says is a male-dominated judiciary.
Rob Moodie, 67, fronted Wellington's High Court yesterday dressed in a navy blue skirt suit with added female extras, The Dominion Post newspaper reported.

"I will now, as a lawyer, be wearing women's clothing," Mr Moodie was quoted as saying .

"The deeper the cover-up, the prettier the frocks."

Any more than guesswork?

Minister ignored parrot advice - National - theage.com.au

While what went on behind Senator Ian Campbell's decision to not approve a new Victorian wind farm is no doubt interesting, this part of the report seems odd:

While refusing to comment on why the departmental briefing paper would not be released, a spokeswoman for said Senator Campbell had based his decision on a publicly available report by consultants Biosis Research, which warned that orange-bellied parrots face extinction within 50 years. There are only about 200 left.

Yet the same Biosis Research report also predicted that the risk of any parrots being killed at the Bald Hills site was extremely low.

According to the Biosis risk analysis, the worst-case scenario would result in one parrot being killed at Bald Hills every 667 years. In the best-case scenario, that would fall to one being killed every 1097 years.

How on earth would you forecast with any high degree of accuracy the rate of bird kill for a particular species in an area that has not had a wind farm in it before?

Sounds like rubbery figures to me.