A new type of black hole to ask CERN about, as well as "bubbles of nothing"

New Scientist notes that a new type of black hole appears theoretically possible - a "black saturn":

Just like the central black hole, the ring would be defined by its event horizon, a boundary beyond which nothing can escape the object's gravity. The ring could be thin like a rubber band or fat like a doughnut, and the rotation would flatten it – "like a doughnut that you have squashed," says Elvang. The spinning ring would also drag space-time around with it, making the central black hole spin as well.

The black Saturn can only exist in a space with four dimensions, rather than the three we inhabit. In 3D, a black ring is impossible, so there are no big black Saturns out there for astronomers to spot – but at a microscopic level, they might really exist....

If extra dimensions exist, black Saturns might be produced in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) particle accelerator in Geneva, due to open at the end of 2007. Because there are so many ways to make a black Saturn, with different sizes of ring and different spins, they might even be produced in greater numbers than 'ordinary' black holes.

Actually, I had noticed the arxiv paper on this recently, but as it was not clear whether the authors thought they may be made by a particle accelerator, I did not post about it.

New Scientist notes that, as with any micro black hole, the physicists expect it will evaporate instantaneously into Hawking Radiation, but as long time readers are aware, a few credible scientists wonder whether HR really exists.

So, if a stable (non evaporating) "black saturn" is created, would its ability to absorb particles be greater that your "normal" micro black hole? How would a string of them created close together interact? Let a bunch of slow moving ones sink into the centre of the earth and what happens?

Of course, CERN's other big argument against there being any danger from micro black holes is that the moon and earth have been bombarded by cosmic rays with much higher energies for billions of years, so if they are still here any micro black holes that can be created are not planet eaters. However, as long time readers would know, there are arguments that question this analysis. (Basically, ones created at CERN may be slow moving and readily fall into the earth. Ones made by cosmic rays move fast and may zip right through most astronomical bodies)

(One day I will get around to tagging my old posts on micro black holes, but my first long article is here. For the others, a use the blog search on this page and they will all appear.)

My argument remains that CERN appears to have done a poor job at taking risk analysis seriously. They have very high expectation that HR is really the answer, even though this radiation has not been observed anywhere. (Yet it is possible that the decay debris could be observed in the Earth's atmosphere if evaporating micro black holes are being created there by cosmic ray collisions. It is just, I think, that not enough experimental work has been done yet to clearly answer the question of whether it is there.)

There is plenty of theoretical work coming out all the time that raises questions about the very nature of black holes and their decay process that should be taken into account in proper risk assessment. If CERN is actually looking at each case and coming up with good reasons why they are not a risk, even if HR does not exist, it would nice of them to tell us. Instead, it seems to just all be on a "trust us we know what we are doing" basis.

Here's one other thing I have been reading about lately: the idea of "bubbles of nothing" being created as part of black hole decay. Some of these, if I understand it correctly, could expand and be a danger. As noted in a recent arxiv paper:

Horowitz [20] has recently argued that a class of charged bubbles of nothing are a possible
decay product of black holes/strings/branes in quantum gravity. If true this would be a new,
unsuspected and disastrous endpoint of quantum black hole dynamics.

They don't explain exactly what they mean by "disastrous endpoint", but I would like to know more. (It may be that the authors of the paper think there is no danger anyway, but they do not write in anything resembling plain enough English for the layperson to understand their points.)

Has CERN looked at this work? Are there reasons to also question the "cosmic ray" analogy that I expect may also be used to argue against danger?

All question worth asking, I think, but getting answers is not easy.

Why 6 megapixels is all you'll need

While you are at the New York Times, have a look at this article explaining some tests done to see how much difference megapixels above 6 make to digital photo enlargement. Answer: most people can't tell the difference.

If a 6 megapixel camera is all that any amateur photographer really needs, and this is virtually the entry level size now, what features are the manufacturers going to come up with to entice us to keep upgrading?

Why England won't disappear under ice any time soon

An article in the New York Times explains why the Atlantic gulf stream current is not as significant as most people think. It is not solely responsible for keeping England warm, and so even if it weakens the glaciers would be some time coming. (I had read this elsewhere, but think I may have forgotten to post about it.)

Good to see such reporting in the NYT.

Obama reviewed

The Weekly Standard has a fairly detailed, and relatively sympathetic, review of Barack Obama's books, particularly his earlier autobiographical one.

The overall feeling you get, though, is that his life experiences so far mean that he is not exactly ready for the Presidency.

A Steyn recommendation

It's been a while since I recommended a Mark Steyn column, but this new one (from Macleans 12 Feb) is pretty good. (It's about D'Souza's controversial views on how much you can blame the Left for "causing" 9-11.)

Michael Ware - journalist?

I know that Tim Blair claims him as a friend, but the reporting style of Australian journalist Michael Ware has long irritated me.

To hear why, you should listen to his report on the state of Iraq on Radio National this morning. (You have to listen to it to get the full Steve Irwin-esque style of his delivery.)

He brings no sense of objectivity to his reporting, and in this he reminds me a lot of Robert Fisk.

Possibly encouraging news on glaciers

Two of Greenland's largest glaciers shrank dramatically and dumped twice as much ice into the sea during a period of less than a year between 2004 and 2005. And then, less than two years later, they returned to near their previous rates of discharge.

The variability over such a short time, reported online Feb. 9 on Science magazine's Science Express, underlines the problem in assuming that glacial melting and sea level rise will necessarily occur at a steady upward trajectory, according to lead author Ian Howat, a post-doctoral researcher with the University of Washington's Applied Physics Laboratory and the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The article is here.

I also see it appeared in the New York Times on 8 February. A Google news search indicates it has not been picked up in any Australian media. Typical.

Fat doctor

I saw a little of "Dr" Gillian McKeith on her TV show "You are what you eat" last year, I think.

When she insisted on checking some unfortunate woman's poo, and then gave it a very bad visual assessment, any vague credibility she had went out the window for me. After all, anyone can have a bad poo day, can't they? (Sorry, I won't go any further in explanation.)

There is a very long and detailed article attacking Gillian McKeith in The Guardian. She does indeed appear to have very dubious qualifications, but she aggressively attacks people who question her pearls of wisdom. Worth reading if you have ever seen her show.

About Obama

A column in The Times ridicules the prospect of Obama actually becoming President:

...Mr Obama is spectacularly underqualified to be President. He has been in the Senate for 25 months. There are probably craftsman repairing things in that building who have been there longer. The notion that being no more than an enthusiastic tourist in the American capital is the same thing as serving an apprenticeship to become the most powerful person on the planet is profoundly disturbing.

The United States once had a race problem in that black people were effectively excluded from the political process. Forty years on it has the reverse dilemma — those who would dismiss a white figure because he was unprepared for the most prominent national position will not do the same for a black one.

The whole thing is worth reading.

Howard & Obama

As usual, I agree with Gerard Henderson's analysis of this incident that is causing undue excitement on the anti-Howard side .

One point I want to make is about the use of parliamentary censure. It is, I reckon, one of the most overused tactics, as it seems to me to rarely make a difference to public perception of a matter. It is, instead, all about the atmosphere in Parliament itself, and about the confidence of both sides. Canberra journalists love it, because the theatre of Parliament is their bread and butter. But really, the question of who wins this type of debate, where the outcome of the vote is clear from the start and it will make no difference to public voting intentions, makes politicians appear far too absorbed in the game of politics, rather the serious issue of making and implementing good policy.

Just my opinion.

YouTube time

A search for David Byrne videos turned up this one today: his terrific version of "Don't Fence Me In".

Remember to sign that mortgage first

American Express charge cards are supposed to have no set limit on them, so I am told, but I don't ever expect to test it by using it for a Saturday night dinner like this one:

BANGKOK: A $29,000-a-head gourmet dinner in Bangkok is making some Thais feel a bit sick.

Fifteen international high-rollers from the world of real estate, casinos and shipping have already booked seats for the black-tie dinner Saturday, which comes with a price tag of 1 million baht, or $29,240, plus 17 percent service and tax...

The Mezzaluna manager, Deepak Ohri, defended the all-European menu and said it was impossible to start making price comparisons.

"We are not selling a meal — we are selling the whole experience," he said. "You cannot put a value on the experience."

Preparing for doom

The Norwegians really are preparing to build a "doomsday vault" to keep seed in? Very nice of them, but why would Norway in particular do this?

The decline of Christian Europe

Interesting article in The Times about the number of Christian churches closing, and mosques opening, in England:

Just one tenth of the nation’s Christians attends church, and churches are now closing faster than mosques are opening. Practising Muslims will, in a few decades, outnumber practising Christians if current trends continue.

Very "Mark Steyn" territory.

Big Mac economics

The Economist publishes its Big Mac index again.

I note that Iceland, Norway, Denmark and Switzerland all have greatly over-priced Big Macs. Indonesia and Thailand are some of the cheapest around. Why does cold weather make
hamburgers more expensive?

In Japan, even the underworld is polite

I am not sure that you would see this degree of co-operation in, say, the Mafia:

The nation's two largest underworld syndicates reached a truce Thursday following recent shootings that sparked fears of a full-scale turf war and prompted police to raid one of the groups believed involved in the violence.

Kobe-based Yamaguchi-gumi and Tokyo-based Sumiyoshi-kai separately reported to the Metropolitan Police Department on Thursday afternoon that they made peace in the wake of Monday's gunning down of a senior Sumiyoshi-kai member, MPD officials said.

Investigators hope the recent violence -- believed part of a turf war between the two crime syndicates -- will halt with Thursday's truce, but said they will continue to monitor the mob's activities.

Nice of them to keep everyone informed.

From another part of the Japan Times, there is an article about the number of Yakuza the police know about:

Full-time yakuza numbered 41,500, while part-timers or semiregular members -- those not directly affiliated with the mob -- increased slightly to 43,200. In 1991, there were an estimated 63,800 full-time mobsters, and some 27,200 part-timers.

In reality, yakuza are appearing to detach themselves from full-time mob activity by engaging in business, political or social activities in a bid to camouflage their underworld affiliation, the NPA said.

This yakuza system is difficult to understand from the Western point of view. It seems extremely well tracked by the police, which makes it sound semi-tolerated. I should go looking around the internet for some background information...

Edwards doomed

Huffington Post is linking to a story that says John Edwards has not sacked Marcotte & McEwen.

If they survive, Edwards is dead in the water, as far as Presidential aspirations go.

By the way, few seem to have noticed this column in Huffington Post that came out shortly after Michelle Malkin had the hide to point out how offensive Marcotte & McEwen had been in their blogs. Here's an extract from the HP column:

The basic story is that uber-moronic Right-tards such as Michelle Malkin, whose IQ has been in an internment camp for the better part of her life, thinks it's really bad that Amanda said words like "fuck" on her blog.

(As if Malkin's criticism was about the use of one word.)

How much sense does it make to answer criticism of immature, intemperate and offensive expression of political views by making your own immature, offensive and intemperate attack?

Now for a discouraging Iraq story

From The Times, a Sunni doctor tells about why he left the country.

But then again, the deputy Health Minister is arrested for supporting murder.

There seems a chance of improvement, at least.

Some slight optimism

There's an interesting IHT report about how things have improved in Sadr City in Baghdad. What's most important, perhaps, is the indication that the Mahdi Army seems more co-operative than before:

Sadr officials — seemingly determined to bleach clean the Mahdi image — said that the militia's members would disarm temporarily during the Baghdad security plan. Even if Sunnis attacked, even if American and Iraqi troops arrested Mahdi commanders, they said, the militia would not fight.

"Whatever the provocation, with the surge against us or anything else, we will not kidnap anyone or take revenge by ourselves," said Daraji, the Sadr City mayor, who has been negotiating with American and Iraqi government officials over the role of the militia. "We will leave everything to the government."

Of course, if things go back to shooting Americans after the security crackdown, little will have been achieved. And, as the article points out, Sunni areas are being left without services, which presumably encourages Sunni insurgency.

Ah well, I still take some slight encouragement from the story.

First reaction: not enough toilets

Airbus took 200 journalists on a spin in the new super-gigantic A380.

From the IHT report:

The novelty began at the gate, which offered upper- and lower-deck access to the plane. Emirates, the largest customer for the A380, plans to put premium and economy-class seats on separate decks — as on an ocean liner — allowing people to board from their VIP lounges.

I can see a new version of Titanic in this. Except I guess I would generally feel safer on the lower deck this time (unless they had to evacuate the aircraft.)

But the crucial thing about long distance flight is the number of toilets:

Packed full of seats, the A380 can seat up 840 people. Airbus used this plane for evacuation drills last year, and it said all 840 were able to pile out in 78 seconds. It is not clear what would happen if they needed to use the toilet simultaneously.

Speaking of toilets, there were 15 on this A380, including one in the first-class cabin that has a window above the commode. Except for the view, its cramped confines did not invite loitering.

Let's see, that is about one toilet for 56 people. Maybe even worse on the "economy" level. Can that be enough for a 840 person configuration?