Why CO2 is a worry, revisited

Acid oceans warning

It's nearly a year since the post in which I explained that I could no longer sit on the fence over the issue of rapidly rising CO2 in the atmosphere not just because of whatever level of global warming may result, but (perhaps even more importantly) because of the effects of ocean acidification. These effects, it seemed to me, would be much more easily tested and verified.

This position seems further vindicated by these comments by an Australian scientist (see link at top):

“Analysis of coral cores shows a steady drop in calcification over the last 20 years,” says Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg of CoECRS and the University of Queensland. “There’s not much debate about how it happens: put more CO₂ into the air above and it dissolves into the oceans.

“When CO₂ levels in the atmosphere reach about 500 parts per million, you put calcification out of business in the oceans.” (Atmospheric CO₂ levels are presently 385 ppm, up from 305 in 1960.)

“It isn’t just the coral reefs which are affected – a large part of the plankton in the Southern Ocean, the coccolithophorids, are also affected. These drive ocean productivity and are the base of the food web which supports krill, whales, tuna and our fisheries. They also play a vital role in removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which could break down.”

Just to remind you, the "do nothing" graph showing how quickly the earth would reach 500 ppm looks like this:



(This appeared with a few other useful charts at my previous post here.)

I would like to hear the sceptical argument against taking ocean acidification seriously, if there is one. I do, however, remain deeply sceptical about a lot of the response to greenhouse gases, especially Kyoto. Alex Robson in the Daily Telegraph recently pointed out again its glaring defects.

Yet, like windpower, many voters will warm to Labor's promises to sign up to it, as it gives that nice warm feeling of doing something. But such fiddling at the edges is probably more of a problem itself if it delays serious thinking about how real results can be achieved.

People may pooh-pooh Bush's recent emphasis on new technology being the primary way forward, but it seems to me he's probably right.

An odd way to learn about home

On the Edge in Melbourne | Cosmic Variance

An entry in a blog about physics has brought to my attention a tourist attraction in Melbourne about which I had not heard before.

Information can find its way to you by very circuitous routes in this world of the internet.

Time for that backyard cow

The UHT route to long-life planet - Times Online

In England:

Officials at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs have made a serious proposal that consumers switch to UHT (Ultra-High Temperature or Ultra-Heat Treated) milk to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Unless it's so full of chocolate or coffee flavouring that you can't taste anything else, UHT milk is best restricted to camping. (Even then, come to think of it, it's still only drinkable if cold, and if you have the ice you still may as well have fresh while in your tent.)

The report goes on to note that UHT milk is not popular in England. I had thought that it was much more popular there than here, but this was based on a visit in the late 1980's during which an Australian couple I stayed with routinely bought UHT milk for their tea and cereal. I remember asking them about this, and being told this was not abnormal for English people.

Turns out it was my hosts who were odd in this respect. (There were other signs of oddness too, but let's not go there.)

Anyway, the most surprising thing about The Times report is that it shows that UHT milk is very popular in some European countries. What, can't they afford refrigerators? In France and Italy, with their reputation for loving and caring deeply about their food, they use huge amounts of milk which has had its flavour boiled out of it? Here are the figures:

UHT milk as a percentage of total consumption:
Austria 20.3
Belgium 96.7
Czech Rep 71.4
Denmark 0.0
Finland 2.4
France 95.5
Germany 66.1
Greece 0.9
Hungary 35.1
Ireland 10.9
Italy 49.8
Netherlands 20.2
Norway 5.3
Poland 48.6
Portugal 92.9
Slovakia 35.5
Spain 95.7
Sweden 5.5
Switzerland 62.8
Britain 8.4

This is the most surprising thing I have read all day. (Some days I am easily surprised.)

Staph is worse than thought

Staph Fatalities May Exceed AIDS Deaths - New York Times

From this report:

Researchers found that only about one-quarter involved hospitalized patients. However, more than half were in the health care system -- people who had recently had surgery or were on kidney dialysis, for example. Open wounds and exposure to medical equipment are major ways the bug spreads.

In recent years, the resistant germ has become more common in hospitals and it has been spreading through prisons, gyms and locker rooms, and in poor urban neighborhoods.

The new study offers the broadest look yet at the pervasiveness of the most severe infections caused by the bug, called methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA. These bacteria can be carried by healthy people, living on their skin or in their noses.

A good reason to avoid gyms, I say.

A gift for John Howard

Nurse action closes hospital beds - National - theage.com.au

The Liberals ought to use this to point to the very low levels of industrial action under the Coalition, and point out that with Labor all over the country, you can expect more strikes, not less.

Today's political columns

Good columns today from Andrew Bolt and Annabel Crabb about Kevin Rudd.

Annabel's column about Rudd's perpetual self-interviewing style (which, one would think, he ought to be being advised by some brave staffer to at least ease up on) is very funny.

Made me laugh

A disgusting new All-Bran ad. - By Janelle Nanos - Slate Magazine

Someone at Slate has too much time on their hands if they have to spend so much time analysing just how "disgusting" is a recent American ad for All Bran cereal.

The article seems to conclude, reluctantly, that it is funny. True. Go and have a look the ad via the Slate article or here.

Tax and interest

Funny that, The Age website this morning has headlines of "PM flunks rates test" and "Howard's tax splurge". The ABC site has "Labor seizes on Howard's interest rate gaffe." Accentuate the negative is clearly The Age's theme.

And on Sunrise this morning, a "phone in poll" indicated strong support for better services rather than tax cuts. ( I can't find a link, but it was something like 80/20 split, which indicates to me that maybe Labor or the unions is getting organised faster with these things.) Yet there seem to be very economists who would call the tax plans at all irresponsible. (News.com on line poll asks the same question and at least has a 50/50 response.)

What's the bet that those who are saying "better services" are the same ones who are whinging about the cost of living increasing (even though official inflation is still quite modest). Presumably, they also think that the government keeping high surpluses year after year is going to help them afford the higher costs of petrol and vegetables.

No wonder Howard is getting frustrated.

Howard, like Bob Hawke before him, has taken the charitable view that the Australian electorate generally makes the right call when voting. It seems to me that this is one election where the collective wisdom of the masses has gone walkabout, and is showing no signs of returning anytime soon.

Dioxin and the pulp mill

Pulp mill's dioxin output undetectable: scientist - Climate Watch

From the above report in The Age:

Specialists observing the Swedish pulp and paper industry doubt claims that conditions imposed on the Gunns mill would make it world's best practice, but chief scientist Jim Peacock said Australia was taking a more precautionary approach than Sweden.

Swedish Environmental Protection Agency specialist Erik Nystrom told The Age that the amount of effluent triggering closure of the pulp mill was the same as that produced by the entire Swedish bleached pulp and paper industry in a year.

Dr Peacock, the Chief scientist wrote to the Age:

"Unlike the Swedes, however, the conditions imposed take a more precautionary approach … dioxin levels must be monitored on a daily basis, with remedial action required should measurable amounts of dioxins be detected."

What more could you ask for?

Henderson on the Church and journalists

Ears to the pulpit, when it suits - Opinion - smh.com.au

It's an interesting column today by Gerard Henderson, returning to one of his favourite themes of how church leaders saying Left-ish things guarantees favourable coverage in the media; but it's condemnation all around for any consevative views expressed.

He also notes a mistake made by Monica Attard which we can assume will not appear on Media Watch.

Wormholes return

This arxiv paper seems important, if it is correct in its conclusions. It suggests that orinary matter, not "exotic matter" may be enough to support a wormhole, which opens the possibility of time and multiverse travel. Hey you, science journalist, tell me if I am right.

From the introduction:

The equations of gravitation admit solutions, known as Lorentzian wormholes, which connect two regions of the same universe (or of two universes) by a throat, which is a minimal area surface. Such kind of geometries would present some features of particular interest, as for example the possibility of time travel (see Refs. [4]). But a central objection against the actual existence of wormholes is that in Einstein gravity the flare-out condition [5] to be satisfied at the throat requires the presence of exotic matter, that is, matter violating the energy conditions [3]. In this sense, thin-shell wormholes have the advantage that the exotic matter would be located only at the shell....

...we show that for certain values of the parameters, thin-shell wormholes could be supported by matter not violating the energy conditions....

And from the body of the paper:

Thus, in the picture providing a clear meaning to matter in the shell, in Einstein–Gauss–Bonnet gravity the violation of the energy conditions could be avoided, and wormholes could be supported by ordinary matter.

So that's what stamp collecting is good for

A Brisbane solicitor was jailed today for having a huge collection of child pornography. An unusual submission was made by his barrister:

His barrister, Ralph Devlin SC, told the court last month that the high number of images and movies were because of an obsessive compulsive disorder.

Mr Devlin said Quinn came from a "family of hoarders" and that he had an obsessive compulsion to collect these images but had since turned his attention toward stamp-collecting.

I guess there had to some good point about stamp collecting, but its jail avoidance potential was one I would never have guessed.

Kerry annoys Howard

I was not able to give it my full attention, but it seemed from what I did see of the interviews on 7.30 Report tonight that Kerry O'Brien clearly annoyed Howard in the first couple of minutes (with a sarcastic "how convenient" quip when the PM said he wasn't going to answer the first question which related to his poor polling.) In fact, all of the questioning of Howard seemed more aggressive than that of Rudd.

Of course you can say "you would say that, wouldn't you", but I still reckon it's true objectively.

I am waiting for the transcript to appear to see if it justifies my impression.

Dealing with pollution in China

In China, a lake's champion imperils himself - International Herald Tribune

Got a government VIP man coming to check out pollution in a famous lake? This, apparently, is how the Chinese dealt with the problem:

In 2001, Wen Jiabao, then a vice premier, now China's prime minister, came to investigate reports of Lake Tai's deterioration. Like most Communist Party inspection tours, word of this one reached local officials in advance. When Wen asked to see a typical dye plant, one was made ready, according to several people who witnessed the preparations.

The factory got a fresh coat of paint. The canal that ran beside it was drained, dredged and refilled with fresh water. Shortly before Wen's motorcade arrived, workers dumped thousands of carp into the canal. Farmers were positioned along the banks holding fishing rods.

Wen spent 20 minutes there. A picture of him shaking hands with the factory boss hangs in its lobby.

It's all rather amusing in a "SGT Bilko" kind of way, as long as you don't have to live there.

Kevin Rudd, what are you going to do about this?

Not if Kevin Rudd has his way

Go nuclear for a third industrial revolution, says EC

There was also a pro nuclear article at Online Opinion a couple of weeks ago that is worth a read.

Labor's evident preference for windmills over any possibility of nuclear is a cop out if they are serious about reducing greenhouse emissions.

Bedroom pitfalls

Better eat a banana | Guardian Unlimited Books

This is an amusing survey of bad fiction writing about sex.

I wish more movies would "leave us at the door" these days too.

A wasted dinner

Why Rudd is not fit to rule | NEWS.com.au

Earlier this year it was mentioned on Insiders that Piers Akerman had had a dinner with Kevin Rudd.

One assumes that Kevin thought he could gain some advantage by breaking bread with one of the nation's biggest Howard supporters, but it has been clear for months that it was wasted effort.

This weekend, Piers explains in very clear terms that he does not trust Kevin one iota:

....I have the gravest concerns about his fitness to head a political party, let alone run this nation.

My main concerns about his character relate to what I perceive to be an unalloyed ruthlessness, a lack of his loyalty to anything but his own short-term political ambitions and his projection of a carefully constructed image that has little or nothing to do with Rudd the man.

While I generally don't pay all that much attention to Akerman, that little summary of The Problem with Kevin seems fair enough.

That rat movie

I finally caught up with "Ratatouille" today.

It's great, although I must admit that I understand why it has not had quite the same degree of box office success as most Pixar fims: I think it is their most adult oriented offering to date, perhaps even more so than The Incredibles (also by Brad Bird, of course.) A lot of the subtle humour depends on an adult understanding of stereotypes surrounding both the French and the profession of cooking.

I would think that most kids under 5 would find it about 15 minutes too long, but on the other hand, my (7 yr old) boy's interest never flagged. Mind you, he enjoys watching Iron Chef too. Both of the kids insisted on cooking something at home after the movie. Some instant pancake mix with some fresh blueberries thrown in did the trick.

Brad Bird handles animated action so well, it makes me wonder if he could bring new perspectives to a live action film. Drawing wild camera angles is presumably somewhat easier than live action, though. You can draw anything, after all.

UPDATE: the movie has been a great critical and box office success in France, where it has (apparently) caused a surge of interest in pet rats . Good to see.

Tim Flannery makes a mistake

This is interesting. According to this post at the Real Climate site (which is, after all, run by Al Gore supporting, actual climate scientists), Tim Flannery's claim this week about greenhouse gases reaching a certain disastrous level ahead of schedule is simply wrong. It appears he got confused by the terminology:

There was a minor kerfuffle in recent days over claims by Tim Flannery (author of "The Weather Makers") that new information from the upcoming IPCC synthesis report will show that we have reached 455 ppmv CO₂_equivalent 10 years ahead of schedule, with predictable implications. This is confused and incorrect, but the definitions of CO₂_e, why one would use it and what the relevant level is, are all highly uncertain in many peoples' minds.

There follows a run down as to how to understand the terminology correctly, which I won't bother reprinting here. The penultimate paragraph says:

The important number is CO₂_e (Total) which is around 375 ppmv. Stabilisation scenarios of 450 ppmv or 550 ppmv are therefore still within reach. Claims that we have passed the first target are simply incorrect, however, that is not to say they are easily achievable. It is even more of a stretch to state that we have all of a sudden gone past the 'dangerous' level. It is still not clear what that level is, but if you take a conventional 450 ppmv CO₂_e value (which will lead to a net equilibrium warming of ~ 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels), we are still a number of years from that, and we have (probably) not yet committed ourselves to reaching it.

The final paragraph comes close to direct criticism of Flannery:

....this is another example where people are quoting from draft reports that they have neither properly read nor understood and for which better informed opinion is not immediately available. I wish journalists and editors would resist the temptation to jump on leaks like this (though I know it's hard). The situation is confusing enough without adding to it unintentionally.

I will wait for Tim's retraction (or, at the very least, clarification) to be made and appear in the media. (Cue crickets chirping.)

I hope she's not expecting a big inheritance...

A Muslim Wife: Observations

Every couple of weeks I check how the Muslim Wife is getting on. (You may recall a previous post in which she told off a relative for keeping a dog as a pet.)

Well, she doesn't post much, but it would seem staying with her family inspires her:

Have you ever watched someone chase after the dunya, only to have it slip from their grasp every time?

Have you ever known someone who piles their plate high with food, yet their body is never satisfied?

Have you ever seen someone who has it all, yet can not appreciate any of it?

Have you ever met someone whose eyes are red with anxiety and whose heart never rests from worry?

Have you ever met someone whose feet are dangling in their grave, yet they deny the inevitability of death?

Have you seen the one whose face has turned black from the absence of Allah in his mind, his heart, his life.....

I have.
I just spent the past week with them.
I'm related to them.

Bloody hell. No matter how genuinely she may feel this way, does she have to diss the relatives on the WWW after every visit? I would love to hear their side of the story.