Howard on Kyoto

Garrett clarifies Labor climate stance | The Australian

People like symbolism, there's no doubt about it. This "leading by example" argument for ratifying Kyoto plays well to the public, but surely it only makes some sense if the treaty process is actually working. Do people think China won't notice that the nations signed up to it are achieving nothing?

It would seem that Malcolm Turnbull thinks along the lines of "why should the Liberals (and me in particular) suffer the loss of the electorate's brownie points for the symbolism, even if the thing doesn't work." It makes political sense in a way, but is also quite cynical.

John Howard made the keys points on AM this morning, not that anyone will pay attention:

"Even if all of the countries that signed up to Kyoto had met their targets - which virtually none of them have - the fall in the world emissions on 1990 levels would be 41 versus 42 which is a difference of one per cent,'' he said.

"That is a meaningless outcome because the Kyoto Protocol for all its symbolism has not in practice been effective.

"That is the reason why Australia has not been willing to ratify it, although unlike most of the countries that have ratified it, we are probably going to meet our Kyoto target of 108 (per cent emissions reduction) over 1990 levels.''

Of course, everyone (including Turnbull) should also read the recent Nature article about the failure of Kyoto as well.

In fact, if he hasn't already done so, I don't see why Howard would not be citing this article as supporting what he has long been saying. (And the other thing that needs constant reinforcing is that the government has not ignored making reductions in greenhouse gases even though it did not ratify Kyoto.)

The continuing bad luck of JW Howard

It seems to me that when the Australian dollar was at it weakest some years ago, public perception was that this was a matter of some embarrassment to national prestige.

Now the dollar is at its highest level since 1984 (!), yet there is no beneficial perception in the public mind. What's worse, Toyota takes the opportunity to point out that it is making its operations unprofitable and raise the issue of tariff protection again, which always has popular appeal even though it makes little economic sense. According to the report just linked to, Senator Carr's initial reaction was reject further tariff protection to the car industry, yet it leaves open the likes of Kevin Rudd, SA premier Mike Rann and the unions to make sympathetic sounds about the importance of keeping manufacturing alive, and arguing over tariffs again.

The public perception will be that Labor will do more to keep manufacturing here, even though it doesn't seem to me there is any legitimate criticism to be make of Coalition support to the industry thus far. The anti tariff forces in Federal Labor will surely win, and its very likely that support Labor does supply will be pretty much along the same lines as what the Coalition might be talked into anyway.

Just dumb bad luck for the Coalition again, I reckon.

No way to run a country

China vows to clean up polluted lake - International Herald Tribune

Last week I referred to an article that talked about severe pollution problems in a famous lake in China.

It seems that the government has decided to clean it up, but look at the way the wheels turn there:

This spring, urban sewage and chemical dumping caused an explosion of bright green pond scum that coated much of the giant lake with a fetid algal coating. Panic quickly followed in Wuxi, a nearby city that depended on the lake to supply drinking water for its 2.3 million residents. Officials were forced to shut off the drinking water supply for several days.

Er, yes, sounds serious. Yet there initial response had been to to arrest the local farmer who started the warnings:

Several local officials have been fired or demoted, and state news media have reported that regulators have already closed as many as 1,000 factories in the area.

But the new crackdown has not helped Wu Lihong, a local environmentalist who has spent more than a decade trying to force official action. Wu, a feisty peasant, had repeatedly protested against the chemical factories and the local officials who protected them.

Wu was arrested shortly before the algae crisis and was later convicted in August on questionable charges. He is now serving three years in prison, even as his direst warnings about the lake have come to pass.

Alien invasion saves John Howard?

Mystery Comet Explodes into Brightness

Clearly, the current space shuttle mission is actually a welcoming party, but they'll probably be disintegrating before they can say "Klaatu barada nikto".

Clutching at straws, you say. Tell that to your new comet-dwelling alien overlords!

Howard's record by Hartcher

Typical. The Sydney Morning Herald's Peter Hartcher has an article that leads the News Review section of the paper this morning, but it seems not to be on the web. Called "Smashing the Myths", it deals with several favourite anti-Howard memes and lists the evidence for or against them. I can summarise the myths that Hartcher debunks as follows:

1. John Howard has made more Australia more selfish (except for the fact that they both donate much more money now and volunteer more time)

2. Howard can't work with Asia (except that in fact Australia has been more engaged with Asia than ever). Hartcher notes that even Keating dropped this line last month, when he said "any clown" could manage relations with Asian powers. (I had missed that.)

3.Howard has ruined the immigration programme (in fact has more immigrants than ever, and with less public resistance to it than when Keating was in.)

4. The economy is strong mainly because of the mining boom (as Gerard Henderson noted earlier this week, economists don't agree).

5. The 2004 Free Trade Agreement with the US sold out the national interest and would cause economic damage. (There is no reporting of the harm it has caused because it has caused none.)

So far so good, in the sense that Hartcher cites a lot of evidence to support his "myth busting" under each of the headings. When he gets onto the Howard negatives, though, the evidence becomes questionable.

The negative list is:

1. Howard took Australia to war in Iraq on a false premise. Well, at least he is not saying "Howard lied" about this. Hartcher cites the US Senate Select Committee on the pre-war intelligence. Hartcher might be a bit more even handed by adding that even the likes of Kevin Rudd believed the "false premise" too.

2. Howard and the Howard government have told lies. Here Hartcher really goes off the rails for a minute, as the evidence he cites is public opinion polls indicate most people believe it! Yeah, right, that's the way to 'get to the truth' of this proposition, Peter. Why do we need journalists at all if the polls will tell us what happened.

3. The Howard government has increased regulatory burden on businesses. Well, guess I can't dispute that, but it is part and parcel of introducing a new tax (GST) that, as far as I can tell, is deemed a great success.

4. The government has treated some immigrants and refugees punitively and manipulatively. In fact, I accept some criticism of the government about this, but at least it is remarkable how boats with would-be refugee claimants are no longer drowning in the Timor Sea.

5. The Howard government wasted a decade denying man-made global warming was real. Hartcher actually makes a point I was not aware of: Howard initially gave high praise to the Kyoto treaty. I didn't recall that, and shows that all politicians can make mistakes!

Overall, it was a good article.

Tattoos you may regret

Maybe I will get around to commenting on the Dumbledore was gay schtick soon, but in the meantime the story has meant fame for a 36 year old (non gay) Dad with a huge Dumbledore tattoo on his back. Really, isn't having large tatts done to please children enough to bring you to the attention of the Children's Protection services?

Anyway, here's some tattoo comedy (maybe it started out as a dolphin or something):

How not to win friends in the government

Three rate rises ahead, says ANZ - FederalElection2007News - FederalElection2007

Presumably, Mike Smith of ANZ does not think it likely he needs to have friends in the Howard government, with his prediction not just of a rate rise in November, but two more to come after that.

This is another case of terrible luck for John Howard. As far as I can tell, no one can point to any actual policy of the Howard government that is leading to the current pressure for interest rate increases (matters such as droughts, the US home lending crisis, and house price increases seem to be all that is cited.)

George Megalogenis points out today that nothing Rudd would do as PM has any prospect of affecting interest rates in a downwards direction in the short to medium term, so it's not like people can expect relief on home mortgages by voting Labor.

Howard is still arguing that relaxing IR laws will have an inflationary effect, and therefore interest rates will still be lower under the Coalition. But, of course, Labor will argue that Howard and Costello have already failed their last election "promise", so why believe them now, and that is likely to be the argument that will stick in voter's minds. (After all, it is politically difficult for the Coalition to suddenly push the line too hard that the recent interest rates are really out of its hands.)

Things are not looking good for Coalition recovery...

Read this, Labor Party

Time to ditch Kyoto : Article : Nature

When Nature magazine runs a commentary arguing that the Kyoto treaty is hopeless, you know something is up:

In practice, Kyoto depends on the top-down creation of a global market in carbon dioxide by allowing countries to buy and sell their agreed allowances of emissions. But there is little sign of a stable global carbon price emerging in the next 5–10 years. Even if such a price were to be established, it is likely to be modest — sufficient only to stimulate efficiency gains³. Without a significant increase in publicly funded research and development (R&D) for clean energy technology and changes to innovation policies, there will be considerable delay before innovation catches up with this modest price signal.

On present trends, for another 20 years, the world will continue installing carbon-intensive infrastructure, such as coal power plants, with a 50-year lifetime. If climate change is as serious a threat to planetary well-being as we have long believed it to be, it is time to interrupt this cycle.

The commentary even argues that the much touted (by Greenies) idealist symbolism involved in getting all countries to sign up to Kyoto works against it:

The notion that emissions mitigation is a global commons problem, requiring consensus among more than 170 countries, lies at the heart of the Kyoto approach. Engaging all of the world's governments has the ring of idealistic symmetry (matching global threat with universal response), but the more parties there are to any negotiation, the lower the common denominator for agreement — as has been the case under Kyoto.

The G8+5 Climate Change Dialogue, established in 2006 to convene the leaders of the top 13 polluters, was a belated recognition of the error of involving too many parties, each with dramatically different stakes and agendas. In September, the United States convened the top 16 polluters. Such initiatives are summarily dismissed by Kyoto's true believers, who see them as diversions rather than necessary first steps. However, these approaches begin to recognize the reality that fewer than 20 countries are responsible for about 80% of the world's emissions. In the early stages of emissions mitigation policy, the other 150 countries only get in the way.

Kyoto critics 1; Labor Party idealists 0.

Yes, but...

Climate is too complex for accurate predictions - earth - 25 October 2007 - New Scientist Environment

This report notes:

Climate change models, no matter how powerful, can never give a precise prediction of how greenhouse gases will warm the Earth, according to a new study....

The analysis focuses on the temperature increase that would occur if levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubled from pre-Industrial Revolution levels. The current best guess for this number – which is a useful way to gauge how sensitive the climate is to rising carbon levels – is that it lies between 2.0 C and 4.5 C. And there is a small chance that the temperature rise could be up to 8C or higher.

To the frustration of policy makers, it is an estimate that has not become much more precise over the last 20 years. During that period, scientists have established that the world is warming and human activity is very likely to blame, but are no closer to putting a figure on exactly much temperatures are likely to rise.

Which is why I argue that the case for keeping CO2 levels down based on ocean acidification is more sound.

Thinking about comedy

Despite my previous complaint that I did not find Summer Heights High funny, I ended up half watching most episodes, partly out of curiosity to see if I would eventually come around to enjoying it, and also simply because there was nothing else of interest on.

Nothing changed in the course of the series. In fact, my problems with it only increased over time. For example:

* I am surprised that there was not more public comment on the use of a Downs Syndrome actor in the show, given the questionable role he was given. Those of us who don't know the actor and his family cannot say that his involvement was exploitative, but doesn't having real life actors with a degree of disability playing fictional roles in which they are exploited or mistreated due to the same disability make people uncomfortable?

* There's no doubt that Chris Lilley is good at acting the roles. But trying to expand a sketch show format's 5 minutes of unrealistic silliness (particularly with something over the top that "Mr G" would do) into a series is too much of a stretch and just ruins the comedy for me.

* The show looked expensive to make, given the large number of actors and extras on the set. Australian films and series routinely look underpopulated, and this one did not have that problem at all. But this only made me resent it more. Seems such a waste of effort on a comedy/satire which I didn't like.

* The show almost certainly suffers the problem that is common to much British comedy now: it is written by a single person and there seems to be no one to act as a filter. (The whole plot about the drug death based musical strayed too far from vaguely plausible reality for far too long to be funny.) Mind you, there is a major lack of sensible filtering going on at The Chaser too, even though it is a team. (I can only enjoy about 50% of that show now, and the degree of annoyance with the other 50% is very offputting. I never care if I miss it.)

* More generally, this show made me wonder about how long British and Australian TV comedy based on deeply unpleasant characters with no redeeming features whatsoever has now been popular. Let's see, we've had The Office (although I stand to be corrected on that, I saw very little of it), Absolutely Fabulous, Nighty Night (now there was a show which I watched purely out of perverse interest in how unpleasant it was,) Alan Partridge (actually, he did make me laugh, but I don't think the character is well known in Australia. Have a look at this clip from his chat show to get a general idea.)

Fawlty Towers was perhaps the start of the plague of this sort of black comedy, but I think the unpleasantness of comedy characters has become much worse since then. (You could occasionally feel sorry for Basil, after all.) It is interesting to note that this style has never really caught on in the US in the same degree. (Of course, American TV comedy has its own major problems over the last decade, but that's a different post.)

I just wish British and Australian comedy writers would give this style a break for a decade or two.

A joke of dubious taste

This from Jimmy Kimmel:

All of California is on fire. The smoke is so thick in Malibu, you can barely see Britney Spears’ vagina.

Shuttle/ISS sightings alert

Hey, this trip by the space shuttle is going to provide a series of good, early evening sighting opportunities for Brisbane, and (presumably) the rest of Australia. Go on, take pleasure in high technology and go out to spot it. (The space station and shuttle combination makes for a very bright object.)

Bad experience at the airport, I assume

Bryan Appleyard was recently travelling, and found that he really doesn't like Air Canada:

The brains of its staff are specially programmed to forget everything as soon as they have checked somebody in. So, when a new customer appears before them, something like this goes through their minds:

'An entity in my visual field is occupying space and reflecting light. It moves. It is shaped like me. But what am I? This entity is pushing something towards me. What does it want me to do?'

That's sounds very much like something Douglas Adams would have written, but in any event it makes me laugh out loud.

Viva von Braun

Rocket Man: Books: The New Yorker

This review of a new biography of Werner von Braun (famous German rocket designer, for all you youngsters out there) makes for interesting reading.

My favourite line is about his increasing fame in America at the start of its space program (and you have to know he headed the German V-2 rocket program in WWII):

Cover stories in Time and Der Spiegel mentioned the Gestapo arrest but not von Braun’s Party membership, let alone the S.S. and Dora; his lecture fees soared, and in 1960 he escorted Mamie Eisenhower to the première of “I Aim at the Stars,” a movie based, with more than usual looseness, on his life story. Mort Sahl suggested a subtitle: “But Sometimes I Hit London.”

Political protest was more serious then..

The hemlock and the chatterbox - Times Online

The link is to a review on a new book on Socrates, who killed himself with hemlock. Plato painted this as a very noble act; others thought his method of suicide was too easy:

According to Plutarch, Cato the Elder called him “a big chatterbox”; the painless demise was contrasted with the hideous suicide of Cato the Younger. As an explicit act of political protest, inspired by Socrates, Cato stabbed himself till his innards extruded; after his wound had been sewn up, he tore it open again and ripped out his bowels.

It would be right up there with self-immolation as a way of attracting media attention.

Dawkins can't let go

Comment is free: Physician, heal thyself

This is a pretty interesting anecdote about Richard Dawkins and his evident willingness to renew gossip against a critic when he had previously agreed that it was false. Those who hold him in high esteem should note.

Funny that

Labour's plan to abandon renewable energy targets

Just as Australians seem to be warming (ha ha) to Labor's plans to increase renewable energy, and its determination to rule out nuclear, Labour in England seems to be planning to talk Europe out of setting fixed targets for renewables, and wants to use more nuclear:

Leaked documents seen by the Guardian show that Gordon Brown will be advised today that the target Tony Blair signed up to this year for 20% of all European energy to come from renewable sources by 2020 is expensive and faces "severe practical difficulties"....

They also reveal different priorities across government departments about how to get renewables to 20% of the electricity mix. Although Germany has increased its renewable energy share to 9% in six years, Britain's share is only 2%, with its greenhouse gas emissions rising...

One of the main objections of government to meeting the renewables target set by Mr Blair is that it will undermine the role of the European emission trading scheme. This scheme was devised by the Treasury under Mr Brown and allows wealthy governments to pay others to reduce emissions. "[Meeting the 20% renewables target] crucially undermines the scheme's credibility ... and reduces the incentives to invest in other carbon technologies like nuclear power", say the papers.

The government is clearly worried about its ambition to introduce more nuclear power as soon as possible.

Preparing for the darkness

What? I go away for a few days and look what happens. Kevin Rudd gets more popular, despite snacking on whatever it was in his ear and it being up for all to groan at on Youtube. Who knows how high his popularity may soar if the next video shows him picking his nose, or playing "pull my finger" with some kiddie at an election campaign outing.

Obviously, I am mature enough to know that it is not the end of the world if Labor wins the election, but (to borrow Danny Katz's technique) OH MY GOD IS HE GOING TO WIN THE ELECTION?!

It seems that the Coalition is possibly doomed because no matter what policy it announces, Kevin is likely to agree with 90% of it and thrown in free porn too. (Well, at least that was the side effect of Labor's policy of subsidising at-home internet access for school kiddies. Annabel Crabb made this observation on Saturday, but it had also occurred to me as soon as I heard the policy.)

Kevin Rudd likes to claim that there will be further tough IR reform under Howard/Costello. This is actually an argument that the Coalition is collectively insane, as who amongst them, if they scrape back in, could possibly think that further workplace reform is worth is all the grief?

I didn't see or hear the debate. I was actually sitting in a tent at the time, preparing MY PLANS FOR LIVING IN THE DESERT IN THE EVENT OF THE APOCALYPSE OF A RUDD VICTORY WITH A 51% PRIMARY VOTE.

(Sorry, it comes in waves.)

I don't find the debates all that stimulating anyway, and as everyone has already observed, Howard is never deemed to have won them regardless of what he says. The fact that Howard does not always have perfect media presentation is something I actually find endearing about him. He can look awkward and nervous, especially on the international stage, as if it is an accident that he is rubbing shoulders with world leaders. You won't get much of that look from Kevin Rudd, especially if he is in China, but I don't know that I would trust him to actually take tough decisions against them if that need develops in the next few years.

By the way, Gerard Henderson had an excellent column in The SMH today, on the issue of who should take credit for Australia's economic success. (Both Labor and Liberal, he says, and backing it up with quotes from people who would know.) He was also on an entertaining panel discussion on Lateline last night. Phillip Adams had a ridiculous column earlier this year in which he accused him of having no sense of humour. It seems Adams does not understand the concept of a dry sense of humour. Gerard just doesn't believe in laughing at his own wit.

Obviously with the polling being the way it is, I am already starting to look for the perfect quote for a post after a Rudd win. This one from Sartre's "Nausea" seems possibly apt:

I can't say I feel relieved or satisfied, just the opposite, I am crushed. Only my goal is reached: I know what I have to know; I have understood all that has happened to me since January. The Nausea has not left me and I don't believe it will leave me so soon; but I no longer have to bear it, it is no longer an illness or a passing fit: it is I.

I wonder how many invitations to dinner parties he got.

And I now declare this blog a post free zone for the rest of the weekend.

After this. (From the world's favourite band, which has a new double CD out too.)

Some slightly encouraging news - for fish

Cod 'making a comeback' | Environment | Guardian Unlimited

Cod levels in the North Sea are showing signs of recovery, but limits must be enforced to ensure it continues, experts warned today.

By the way, what is it with wacky names for fish (expecially those from the Northern Hemisphere). This article mentions haddock, pollock (OK, we've at least heard of those), but also spurdog and porbeagle.

Turns out the porbeagle is a shark, and no one is sure how it got its name.

And...and...Damn, I can't think of a witty line to finish with.