The prophet who never gives up

The end of the world is nigh. Its name is Gordon - Times Online

He's not easily discouraged, you have to give him that.

Gordon Ritchie believes he has worked out all the details of the end of the world. Trouble is, he keeps making predictions which turn out wrong:

His predictions have not been rash. They've all been thought through very carefully, but many have been wrong. His revelation came to him after a long period of bible study, including six years in the Jehovah's Witnesses. It all fell into place for him in McDonald's , he says. “I felt like leaping up on the tables, shouting, ‘Why are you eating those burgers?'”

He buys and sells shares with enough foresight to make a living, but look at his other predictions:

“Well, when I went on New York radio in front of two million people telling them they were going to be imminently destroyed and then they weren't, yes, I did feel a complete berk,” he says. Similarly, he took out £30,000 worth of advertising in The Sunday Times predicting that the UN would take overall political control of the world. He ran ads in March, July, September and November 2001, revising his prophecy each time. “Yeah, that turned out to be wrong, duh!” says Gordon.

There's more:

So what are his latest predictions? We meet in late April. He says there will be a terrorist attack on the weekend of April 26 in Europe and the US. Er, no there wasn't. On May 12, angels will start appearing to people, just popping up at dinner parties or when you're watching TV. I feel sure I would have noticed that. Don't book your holidays for next August because, by July half of mankind will be toast and we'll be ready for the new kingdom of Christ, he says.

The belief that keeps him going:

“I know I'm right,” he says. I point out that he's not right, in fact he's very publicly wrong. “Well there's a limit to how many mistakes I can make, I suppose,” he says.

Err, no there isn't.

Colbert on that O'Reilly tape

Infatuation

Movies: Whatever Happened to Karen Allen? | Newsweek Entertainment

This is an amusing article by a journalist who, despite talking to the big stars and directors, still didn't have the courage to speak to his heartthrob Karen Allen when he saw her on the street.

Trouble ever brewing

Nuclear agency accuses Iran of willful lack of cooperation - International Herald Tribune

Don't worry, though, Ken Lovell says we have nothing to worry about.

Sad

US director Sydney Pollack dies

I always thought he made or appeared in competent, generally likeable, films.

Mars skepticism

While most things space related interest me, I don't often blog about Mars missions. I don't begrudge planetary scientists their fun, and good science may still come out of these missions; but really, I am skeptical of any optimistic talk of finding life on Mars, or indeed of manned missions.

For humans to travel to Mars, there is a major issue with space radiation. Even on the surface, it's not shielded by a decent atmosphere (or magnetosphere?) and the radiation environment is not so good for permanent living. (Unless you have shielding, the easiest of which is to live under dirt.)

As for bacteria, this summary of a recent paper indicates that any bugs would have to be far underground:

The damaging effect of ionising radiation on cellular structure is one of the prime limiting factors on the survival of life in potential astrobiological habitats. Here we model the propagation of solar energetic protons and galactic cosmic ray particles through the Martian atmosphere and three different surface scenarios: dry regolith, water ice, and regolith with layered permafrost. Particle energy spectra and absorbed radiation dose are determined for the surface and at regular depths underground, allowing the calculation of microbial survival times. Bacteria or spores held dormant by freezing conditions cannot metabolise and become inactivated by accumulating radiation damage. We find that at 2 m depth, the reach of the ExoMars drill, a population of radioresistant cells would need to have reanimated within the last 450,000 years to still be viable. Recovery of viable cells cryopreserved within the putative Cerberus pack-ice requires a drill depth of at least 7.5 m.

Here's another article (based on the same paper, I think) explaining that that scrapping just below the surface is not likely to find anything living.

Really, until they come up with a good answer as to how to ensure astronauts won't be killed during a lengthy voyage to Mars, I just don't know that it is worth the effort to plan for manned missions.

I would much rather intensive investigation of the Moon, with a view to permanent, sheltered bases, to act as lifeboats for humanity.

Yes, but...

Cheap carbon trap cleans up power station emissions - tech - 26 May 2008 - New Scientist Tech

Most of the story is behind a paywall, but here is the start:

Now a team led by Maciej Radosz at the University of Wyoming in Laramie say they have designed a cheap filter that could capture 90 per cent or more of the CO₂ emitted by power stations. "This is a way to capture CO₂ for about $20 a tonne - less than half the cost of current methods," says Radosz.

Yes, but surely the bigger issue with CO2 sequestration is where to bury it, and how to get it there.

Charlie Brooker has doubts

I've made the point many times: the problem with many a Labor supporter is their assumption that those on the Right are either too evil, or too dumb, (or both), to see the obvious truth that only those on the Left have the moral and practical answers as to how to govern.

Charlie Brooker, whose silly scowling photo used by The Guardian has always made me laugh, illustrates this well in his column today. Warming to the idea that your personal view of politics is strongly affected by genetics, he writes:

This would explain a lot. For instance, I know in my bones that rightwing policies are wrong. Obviously wrong. They just are. It's Selfishism, pure and simple. Nasty stuff. Consequently I don't "get" Tories, never have and never will. We don't gel. There's something missing in their eyes and voices; they're the same yet different; bodysnatchers running on alien software. Yet that's precisely how I must seem to them: an inherently misguided and ultimately unknowable idiot. (I'm right and they're wrong, of course - but they can be forgiven for not working that out. They can't help it. They were blighted at birth.)

But even he is now having his doubts, in the sense that he is finding he can't stomach current Labor figures either. Poor boy, he may be starting a much feared middle age retreat towards the right.

I know he is trying to be a bit funny in the way he writes in this column, but I still think he is pretty much speaking the truth in the above extract.

Secret missions

Titanic search was cover for secret Cold War subs mission - Times Online

So, Robert Ballard was engaged by the US Navy to check out the wrecks of the nuclear submarines USS Thresher and USS Scorpion. He succeeded too:

Thresher, had imploded deep beneath the surface and had broken up into thousands of pieces and Scorpion was almost as completely destroyed. “It was as though it had been put through a shredding machine. There was a long debris trail.” Dr Ballard developed a robotic submarine craft in the early 1980s and approached the US Navy in 1982 for funding to search for the Titanic, which sank in 1912 with the loss of 1,500 lives after hitting an iceberg.

He was told that the military were not willing to spend a fortune on locating the liner, but they did want to know what had happened to their submarines.The military were anxious to know how the nuclear reactors had been affected by being submerged for so long.

The story of Thresher is particularly nightmarish:

Thresher, the US Navy’s most advanced attack submarine at the time, sank with all her 129 crew in April 1963 while undergoing seaworthiness tests after dockyard repairs.

A surface ship, Skylark, was in contact when the submarine’s crew reported that a high-pressure pipe supplying the nuclear reactor with cooling water had blown. The accident 1,000ft down, caused the vessel to lose power. It then sank so deep that the pressure hull imploded.

But, according to the Wikipedia entry, the wreckage was already examined in the 1960's after the accident, so it's not as if Ballard was the first to go there. In fact, this report seems to be based on publicity for a National Geographic special, so that may explain a degree of exaggeration here.

Still, an interesting story.

Frozen chips & the clown

Billionaire made fortune in frozen potatoes - Los Angeles Times

File this away in that small corner of your brain that you aren't using right now. The invention of the frozen chip and McDonalds hamburgers are closely connected.

For some reason, I find that interesting.

Want to take the gamble?

Ocean Acidification: Another Undesired Side Effect Of Fossil Fuel-burning

In this general article about ocean acidification, it is noted:

The expected biological impact of ocean acidification remains still uncertain. Most calcifying organisms such as corals, mussels, algae and plankton investigated so far, respond negatively to the more acidic ocean waters. Because of the increased acidity, less carbonate ions are available, which means the calcification rates of the organisms are decreasing and thus their shells and skeletons thinning. However, a recent study suggested that a specific form of single-celled algae called coccolithophores actually gets stimulated by elevated pCO₂ levels in the oceans, creating even bigger uncertainties when it comes to the biological response.

"There are thousands of calcifying organisms on earth and we have investigated only six to ten of them, we need to have a much better understanding of the physiological mechanisms" demanded Jean-Pierre Gattuso, a speaker from Laboratoire d'Océanographie Villefranche invited by EuroCLIMATE. In addition, higher marine life forms are likely to be affected by the rapidly acidifying oceans and entire food webs might be changing.

This is consistent with what I have said before. You already have big changes underway in ocean chemistry, due to the lag time in the ocean absorbing CO2. With thousands of creatures possibly directly affected, and thousand more in the food chain, it a huge gamble to do no planning for reduced CO2 emissions while waiting another 20 years or so for scientists to get on top of the biology of ocean acidification.

Maybe what is needed is some specific research on something people directly like, such as the effect on prawns or oysters. If research can show that ocean acidification will lead to the decline of the beloved Sydney rock oyster, maybe that would get people's attention.

Actually, now that I Google that topic I see that someone says that prawns and crabs won't be affected because of the way they make their shells. But I am sure I have read somewhere else that krill may be affected. (Maybe that is indirectly because of the effect on some types of plankton.) Anyway, here's the quote from The Telegraph:

Mussels, clams, scallops and oysters are expected to be the worst-hit as the oceans grow more acidic. However prawns, crabs and lobsters will escape unharmed as they produce their shells in a different way.

If the effect on oysters is so clear, I reckon a few good Youtube videos showing the effect might be enough to get ocean acidification more attention. I think at the moment people read about it and shrug their shoulders: there is no direct image of the problem for them to worry about. (Whereas if you concentrate on earth warming, you can do a Gore and use pictures of hurricanes and such like, and whether or not they are truly related to global warming, they have an emotional impact to some people.)

By the way, there are a few new posts up at the Ocean Acidification blog listed in my blogroll.

Homer Simpson will be pleased

Doughnut-shaped Universe bites back : Nature News

My opinion of you know what movie

Went and saw Indiana Jones & the KCS. I came out quite satisfied, though I still find Temple of Doom the most enjoyable of the series.

If you are one of those who think Last Crusade was excellent, you may as well ignore my opinion. Unlike that instalment, in which I found there were no thrills to be had and most jokes fell flat, this movie has genuinely exciting, protracted sequences, and a script that does provide some genuine humour. (The script is not perfect, though, and any flaws with the film really lie there, and not with the welcome re-invigorated action direction of Spielberg.)

One curious aspect of the film, though, was that the self referential bits gave me a feeling that it was like watching the last film in the career of an aging or ill director, who's doing a bit of a career summation. I assume that was not the intention.

You would, however, have to assume that the last scene was meant to telegraph that there would be one more Harrison Ford outing in the role before it is (possibly) handed over to Shia LaBeouf. I for one would welcome another outing with this cast.

An aside: They played the short for Baz Luhrmann's "Australia". It shows every sign of bearing as much resemblance to a realistic portrayal of this nation as "Moulin Rouge" did to 19th century Paris. It showed great promise as a great embarrassment, which I fully expect it to be, as I quite intensely dislike everything of Luhrmann's I have ever seen.

Crawford redux

I'll never forgive Mommie | By genre | guardian.co.uk Books

This mildly interesting article is about the soon to be re-issued "Mommie Dearest", the most successful adoptive parent character assassination ever.

It turns out many of the other adoptive kids in the Joan Crawford household, and staff who were around her, claim that Christina was wildly exaggerating. If she is, she's certainly very creative about it.

But the main reason I thought this worth a post was for this snippet which surprised me:

Her [Joan Crawford's] forceful personality and strident physical attractiveness meant she was used to getting what she wanted. She married four times and had a string of affairs with both men and women, including a one-night stand with Marilyn Monroe.

Who in American isn't said to have slept with Marilyn?

Tania goes international

Bollywood starlet Tania Zaetta accused of sex with soldiers in Afghanistan - Times Online

Just what Tania needed - the international press running with the story. Oddly enough, the general character of the comments that follow the Times article are more or less congratulatory for her keeping up the morale of the troops.

Surely, such rumours have followed each and every visit of a female entertainer to overseas troops ever since such entertainment tours began. It's the perfect material for a "friend of a friend" story, and the bragging motivation of whoever starts such a rumour is self evident. Why should this one be given any special credence by anyone? Unless the video turns up on the internet, you can safely assume it never happened.

So who's the idiot who even bothered putting it in some short lived Defence topic list? (Even on the very, very slim chance that it did happen, why would you even worry about it unless you knew a video was being circulated? Stay silent and sensible people who did hear the rumour would just dismiss it anyway.)

Never underestimate the stupidity of some of the people in Defence.

Make Arabs anXious

This was on Little Green Footballs a few weeks ago, but I missed it then.

Memri has a clip up showing some Arab guy on TV claiming (with apparent sincerity) that Pepsi stands for "Pay Every Pence to Save Israel". It's such a stupidly creative rumour, I'm almost impressed.

Some Googling around shows that Time magazine mentioned this as a rumour spread on Iranian TV in 2006. (The Time article also mentions Oprah being on TV in Iran too. Why is she popular there?) Snopes mentions the rumour in 2007 entries here, and again here, where it's said that it spread through Eygptian high schools via chain letters. (It makes you wonder how spectacularly stupid some stuff in chain letters in the Middle East must be.)

As Snopes points out, this urban myth of the Middle East is particularly ironic given that both Coke and Pepsi were strongly criticised in the 1960's by American Jews for not selling in Israel, in order to keep the more lucrative Arab markets. There's a whole Snopes entry about that period.

As for the heading of the post, it's my guess as to what the "Max" must stand for in Pepsi Max.

I'm tempted to post it on some Arabic/Iranian forum, and wait and see how long before it turns up on a Memri clip.

The barmy, barmy Mitfords

Hitler, my sisters and me | Hay Festival | guardian.co.uk Books

It's hard to resist yet another article about the Mitford sisters and their jolly adventures with fascists and communists. One of them is still alive, Deborah, and she is interviewed in this article about a new collection of the sisters' letters.

Just how balmy some of the family were is illustrated well by this passage:

Unity stalked Hitler, sitting in his favourite cafe, staring, until he noticed her, and then met him more than a hundred times; he gave her a flat that had belonged to a young, now absent, Jewish couple. "The Führer was heavenly, in his best mood, & very gay," she wrote to Diana in 1935. "He talked a lot about Jews, which was lovely." She signs off "With best love and Heil Hitler! Bobo", and writes breathlessly about her various encounters. In some ways, the most disturbing aspect of the letters is their clash of tone and content, the gushing of a star-struck schoolgirl about the heyday of the Reich.

Charlotte and Deborah both stress that Unity, who thought it amusing to take a white rat to parties, was, as Charlotte puts it, "completely unsophisticated, rather young for her age. And she was just bowled over". But this does not apply to Diana, whom Deborah believes was the brightest of the sisters. Diana's letters are nearly as gushing. She and Mosley married at the Goebbels' home in Berlin, and, she wrote to Unity, "I felt everything was perfect, the Kit [Oswald Mosley, whom she called 'kitten'], you, the Führer, the weather, my dress ..." (Many Mitfords were drawn in to some degree: Unity persuaded her parents to support fascism, while, in the 30s, Himmler offered Nancy a tour of a concentration camp. "Now why? So that I could write a funny book about them.")

One thing I didn't know before is that the Kennedy family knew the Mitfords too:

The Kennedys were childhood friends; when Joseph P Kennedy was made ambassador to London in 1938, he moved for a while into a house on Princes Gate, in London. The Mitfords had a place nearby. "Kick [Kathleen Kennedy, who married Andrew Cavendish's elder brother] was 18 and Jack, I suppose, was 19 or 20. Young Joe, who was killed, was maybe 22. And so they were just this very exuberant, charming, wonderful family who happened to live in the next street. The odd thing was, at a dance once, my mother said to Andrew, my husband, to whom I wasn't even engaged then, about Jack, 'Mark my words, that young man will be president of the United States.' Isn't that extraordinary?"

It's hard to believe that a 20 year old John Kennedy would not have been leading an active sex life at that time, and the article indicates that some have claimed that Deborah herself was his lover, but she denies it.

It's a small world for the rich and powerful, isn't it?

UPDATE: the original heading I had on this for nearly a day was "balmy balmy Mitfords". As the Mitfords were not exactly like a warm and soft breeze, I actually meant "barmy", but then again I see from Chambers online dictionary that "balmy" is sometimes used for "barmy". So I haven't completely embarrassed myself. Yet.

For the love of Kevin

I saw most of Q&A last night, which was basically an hour of the Prime Minister taking questions from a (mostly) loving audience.

Andrew Bolt has already noted how the audience was stacked.

The odd thing I noticed about it was that the audio on the audience seemed really turned up to 11. Kevin would make a mildly humorous comment, and the audience laughter in response sounded like a laugh track from Seinfeld.

Although there were questions coming from a critical perspective, the whole thing was so controlled it was far from a challenging environment. Our PM is good at avoiding the question, and is still at the stage of blaming the previous government for most things.

I still can't warm to his personality. Beneath all the standard politician talk, I get the impression that he's a tightly sprung, over-controlling robot, who is not as self-effacing as he likes to portray. There is a faux humility in the continued references to his upbringing in Nambour, which I am very tired of hearing about.

Taking fuel efficient flying seriously

It's interesting to see that soaring fuel costs are leading to jets being flown a bit slower, in order to increase fuel efficiency.

But, for the short inter-city hops in Australia, why don't airlines seriously consider going back to modern turbo-prop aircraft? According to to The Times last month:

“Propeller-driven planes achieve massive fuel benefits on shorter journeys,” Kapil Kaul, of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, said.

For a trip of less than 600 nautical miles, or about 90 minutes’ flying time, a turboprob may use as much as 70 per cent less fuel than a similar-sized jet, he said.

According to Treehugger, the environmentalist website, travelling on an aircraft such as a Bombardier Q400, one of the most advanced turboprops, can be more environmentally friendly than going by car (but not quite as green as taking a train).

This post makes the same point.

Of course, such fuel efficiency doesn't hurt from a greenhouse gas point of view, but even if you are a complete skeptic on that, the economics still make a lot of sense.

On IslamicTube today

Wandering around the internet today, I stumbled across IslamicTube.net. It's an Islamic version of YouTube; full of Islamic fun.

In today's "featured" category, there's an extract of a talk from an American sounding black Muslim about how AIDS was deliberately injected into Africans as part of an evil American/WHO plan to keep the population down. You can see it here.

They also seem very keen on little kids who can talk about Islam. There's this 2 year old who knows a series of answers to questions about Islam. Watch it and guess which question and answer I find most worrying:



(This version is on Youtube; I don't think you can embed the videos from Islamictube.)

Going back to AIDS, you can go to the "Science and Facts" channel on IslamicTube and watch the series "Medicine and Islam", which seems entirely devoted to camel's milk. I haven't watched it all, but it would seem from the heading that AIDS gets a mention.

Yes, I must spend more time on IslamicTube.