Don't tell Andrew Bolt

Less Ice In Arctic Ocean 6000-7000 Years Ago

Andrew Bolt and others have been posting a lot about the Arctic ice melt (and apparent recent rapid re-freeze), so he's bound to take encouragement from this article that suggests that the Arctic ocean had much less ice 7,000 years ago too, before our modern CO2 increase, of course.

My general impressions are as follows:

* the issue of the coming and going of Arctic ice is clearly not fully understood.

* of course there are AGW advocates who leap too quickly onto anything that appears to prove greenhouse warming. Those who wildly overstate the case as to the short term effects of AGW (such as Tim Flannery, Al Gore, etc) are usually not the scientists themselves.

* most climate scientists were actually somewhat cautious in what they said about the big 2007 melt. At Real Climate, for example, they said:

The disappearance of the ice was set up by warming surface waters and loss of the thicker multi-year ice in favor of thinner single-year ice. But the collapse of ice coverage this year was also something of a random event. This change was much more abrupt than the averaged results of the multiple IPCC AR4 models, but if you look at individual model runs, you can find sudden decreases in ice cover such as this. In the particular model run which looks most like 2007, the ice subsequently recovered somewhat, although never regaining the coverage before the meltback event.

* even if the current round of substantially lower than average summer ice is caused by completely different cyclic factors from CO2 increase, it may be a worry if the cycle continues because of its potential to have an enhancing effect on any warming that is caused by CO2 in coming decades.

Methane coming out of the Arctic ocean may well end up being a major concern too. We will hear more about that soon, it seems.

* Above all, remember my official line is that ocean acidification is a big enough issue alone to limit CO2 anyway. Doesn't matter if temperatures go up or down: a huge gamble with what will happen to ocean ecology is in play if CO2 is allowed to soar to levels not seen for millions of years.

Curious...

Doctor shares secrets to calm your child

A doctor who has written a book about soothing babies and toddlers says this in the above interview:

Q: Do you have any ideas on how to have the happiest teenager on the block?

A: I can't tell you the whole secret approach, but I can tell you part of it uses a lot of duct tape. In a lot of ways, they're like toddlers - they want a lot more authority than they're prepared to handle, and they've got a lot of immaturity. A lot of the communication techniques that work with toddlers works with them as well. What hasn't been acknowledged is how important the nonverbal part of communication is. The way you acknowledge someone's feelings is actually more important than what you say. Even with the right words, if it's done in a very flat, psychiatrist voice, it makes you want to be more distant and find someone who does understand you. These books deal with discipline as well, but it turns out that 90 percent of getting your kids to behave well is respectful communication.

I can't quite tell if the duct tape bit is a joke or not.

The noddy girls identified

Labor's script is showing, brown noses out of joint - Annabel Crabb - Opinion

Annabel Crabb's column today answers the question: just who are those two nodding women MPs who always manage to get their face in shot on TV behind Kevin Rudd in Parliament?

What it doesn't tell us is: how do Parliamentarians score those seats? They must be worth an absolute mint in terms of free publicity to your own electorate.

The rest of the column (about how the Dorothy Dixers got emailed to journalists yesterday) is pretty interesting too.

PS: Christian Kerr's take on the day goes into more detail about the issue of how Rudd got his Reserve Bank advice second hand. Seems Kevin was hyperventilating at certain points during Question Time, but I don't recall seeing that part on the TV news.

Onsen appreciation

The Gangster In My Tub - The Atlantic (November 2008)

The Atlantic has a short article explaining the pleasures of Japanese onsen which is right on the money:

Why is all this fun? Japanese people sometimes explain the attraction with mumbo-jumbo about how onsen provide a spiritual experience. Personally, I think there’s something in the lizard part of our brain that really likes sitting around in hot water with no clothes on in a beautiful mountain setting. Also to be taken into account is that after the onsen, you can put on your yukata (a bathrobe-like garment provided by every ryokan) and eat wonderful food—the culinary quality at Japanese inns is amazingly high.

As the article mentions (and has photos of) the Yakuza at an onsen, I should mention that I have never seen a tattooed Yakuza in an onsen or sento. (I understand that they are not welcome at the great majority of such establishments.) I did read in an old edition of the Lonely Planet guide to Japan that a member of the Yakuza may be quite happy if you show an interest in his tattoos. I thought this odd advice: generally speaking, isn't it more prudent to avoid engaging gangsters in conversation about mutual interests?

Speaking of tattoos: God I've seen some awful examples on women at the shopping centre lately. What are they thinking?

Godless England

There's a God-shaped hole in Westminster | Rachel Sylvester - Times Online

Seems about right, this column.

Fighting over Radio National

One thing I have learnt about Radio National since Stephen Crittenden spat the dummy about losing his show is that they don't update their presenters' photos often. (Have a look at Stephen's unflattering unhappy photo in the News.com story on this compared to his RN bio.)

I am being needlessly bitchy, I suppose, as in fact I would prefer The Religion Report stay. He doesn't do a bad job, I reckon, and I occasionally get to listen to it.

However, there is a lot of dross on RN and, apart from Crittenden's show and (perhaps) the Media Report, the other ones mentioned for axing will not be missed by more than a handful of listeners.

The really great presenters of the Radio National are, I reckon, Alan Saunders and Norman Swan. Both just come across as good natured polymaths, and don't wear their political ideology on their sleeves as do so many other Radio National presenters.

If you have a spare half hour, you could do much worse than listen to Saunder's "By Design" show of last week which featured Paul Keating and Elizabeth Farrelly talking about Sydney's Circular Quay. Quite entertaining in parts.

Excrementally interesting

Excerpts from The Big Necessity: The Unmentionable World of Human Waste and Why It Matters.

It's all about China and excrement, but it is interesting.

The Japanese, incidentally, followed the Chinese system of really appreciating the value of their poo. Have a look at this Youtube entitled "The role of human excrement in Japanese agriculture" for a brief summary.

Strange missiles

UFOs, alien abductions and Tina Turner feature in Close Encounters secret files - Telegraph

The Telegraph reports that some more recent government UFO files have been released, including some on a few very odd "unexplained missile" cases from 1991.

These cases don't particularly suggest aliens involvement (not in the traditional flying saucer sense), but they remainpuzzling nonetheless.

Proposed end of the world update

Also while I was away, Rainer Plaga made his response to the criticisms of his original paper suggesting that the Large Hadron Collider could create a dangerous, earth threatening, mini black hole.

He added an appendix to his paper on arXiv, here, saying that Giddings and Mangano's criticism that he used an equation incorrectly is just wrong. For the earlier explanation of the background, see my posts here, here and here.

I'm in no position to judge the accuracy of Rainer's rejoinder, just as I had trouble understanding Giddings and Mangano's criticism. And no physicist on the Web seems to have commented on Rainer's response.

So: who knows? Some informed comment on this would be welcome, but I guess money worries are more important that the end of the world...

UPDATE: the accident that shut the LHC down appears to require more work to fix than first thought. Nature is reporting it won't be turned on again til June 2009, but even then some seem to think that is optimistic.

Australian supermarkets note

Supermarkets slash prices to keep fearful customers | The Japan Times Online

Some very strong supermarket competition in Japan:

Major supermarkets are engaging in price cuts to keep customers as a sagging stock market and worsening corporate earnings pressure consumers to tighten their purse strings.

Aeon Co. began its biggest discount campaign ever Saturday at about 2,000 stores run by group companies, slashing prices on about 1,000 items by an average 20 percent until the end of February.

Maher miss

I see that while I was on holiday, a Bill Maher documentary on religion was released in the States.

Although Rotten Tomatoes indicates it was generally well received by the critics, it seems when you read the reviewers' key comments at RT that many of those who liked it still had reservations about it being basically one big cheap shot. (It is a curious thing, sometimes, as to how RT decides whether a particular review is, overall, positive or negative.) Kenneth Turan of the LA Times explains well the reasons he and others didn't like it.

Anyhow, the main reason this is mentioned here is because I thought David Wolpe wrote a good rebuttal to this type of criticism of religion.

Surprisingly, I see that the movie has made $9,000,000 in the States, in 3 weeks. (The production budget is said to be $2.5 million.) I take it that counts as a success. Athiests with a liking for a grating liberal comedian are willing to pay for it, then. Unfortunately, more completely one sided liberal docos are probably on the way.

The Madonna divorce post

Catherine Bennett: Now's the time for Guy to rise above Madge's material world The Observer

Catherine Bennett doesn't have much time for Madonna. Writing of her children's books:

....in The English Roses Madonna commands young readers not to judge people by appearances. Just because a person might seem to be, say, meretricious, materialistic, foul-mouthed and youth-obsessed, with disturbing musculature and a habit of waggling her venerable crotch in front of hundreds of thousands of complete strangers, doesn't mean she might not, in reality, inhabit a rarified spiritual plane from which - to the great good fortune to those around her - she occasionally returns with important messages about the sacred side of life.

Heh.

PS: I had somehow missed the fact that Madonna has directed a movie just released in the States. (Her soon-to-be-ex-hubbie Guy has one out too.) Anthony Lane therefore has a lot of fun reviewing both films, neither of which he likes. Here's his take on Ritchie's film (noting that he has just rubbished Madonna's movie - "Filth and Wisdom" (!) - for being incompetent on every level):

“RocknRolla,” by contrast, has competence on its side. Whole scenes go by in which one shot actually matches the next. In place of the bleak fuzz that veils half the setups in “Filth and Wisdom,” the images here are crisply defined, even if Ritchie has proved unable to shed the fondness for muted mud-tones that graced “Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels.” Why, there are even proper actors! Giving reasonable performances! This film’s got everything, although purists might quibble that it lacks any sliver of plausibility or dramatic interest.

As for the title of Madonna's movie, apparently the narrator says: "Without filth, there can be no wisdom." Deep, Madonna, very deep.

Psychoanalysing Obama

David Brooks: Thinking about Obama - International Herald Tribune

David Brooks' column on the unexpected (in terms of what a psychologist might predict given his childhood) and somewhat un-nerving coolness and unflappability of Obama makes some good points. (Although it is always dangerous to make too much out of just the public persona.)

Of course, Brooks fails to mention the obvious explanations: it could be he's either a robot (has he ever lived near the place where Disney builds their animatronics?) or the Terminal Man (with a mood controlling chip in his brain). Investigative journalists should be looking for unexplained hospital admissions. (Good thing I read Michael Crichton and can see what is going on.)

Bubble waiting to be burst

Dubai prices rising as fast as buildings - International Herald Tribune:

Richard Waryn has lived in Dubai for only two months but he already is certain that the glitz capital of the Mideast lives up to its go-go reputation. What he is not so sure about is whether to sink his money into the sleek apartment towers springing up everywhere.

With property prices up 40 percent this year - and critics warning that a slide is coming - other potential buyers are asking themselves the same question.

By the way, Richard is not your average investor. On page 2 of the article, we read this:

In the end, Waryn and his wife, Liz, a lawyer, opted to rent a 550-square-meter duplex penthouse with private pool and terraces overlooking the sea. The $100,000 annual rent seemed a better deal than buying an equivalent property for about $4 million, although he said they still may buy an investment property.

He's got a bit of loose change lying around, it seems.

Tuna must be in trouble...

BBC NEWS | Closure call for tuna 'disgrace'

If even Japan is calling for a moratorium on fishing Mediterranean tuna, then you know the stocks must be very low indeed:

In 2006, Iccat scientists recommended catches be limited to about 15,000 tonnes per year.

But the government appointees that make the decisions chose to allow quotas twice as big, and it is estimated that a further 20,000 tonnes are landed illegally each year.

As a result, the number of fish has fallen to about one-third of its level in the 1970s.

Indeed, the Messiah cometh

A Don's Life by Mary Beard - Times Online - WBLG: My Dad, John McCain

If you thought conservatives were exaggerating in their complaint that Obama was being treated as the Messiah, have a read of Mary Beard's blog, where she looks at the kid's books written about both McCain and Obama.

She starts off complaining about the giant airbrush waved over McCain in the "young readers" book about him, but then notes that the Obama books are significantly worse.

Of "Barack Obama, Son of Promise, Child of Hope", Mary notes:

Never mind maverick patriotism, here god him/herself appears to have a direct line to young Barack. One Sunday in church he (that’s god) says, “Look around you. Now look at me. There is hope enough here to last a lifetime.” And somewhere along the line, Obama seems to turn into Moses.

On two other books:

Religion is less in your face in Jonah Winter’s Barack, also aimed at under 10s. But you still have to put up with him being born on a “moonlit night” (really?) to a Mom “white as whipped cream”. And no less puke-making is Garen Thomas's, Yes, we can, aimed at slightly older kids. How about this, quoted by the New York Times reviewer: “There has emerged a new leader who seems to be granting Americans a renewed license to dream. . . . People believe he understands them, because by some measure he is them. . . . He manages, through what appears to be genuine concern, to uplift those who have fallen and bring hope anew to both the cynic and the idealist.”

Surprisingly, Mary says the books are selling well, and she assumes it can't all be to adults wanting a laugh.

When exactly did publishers realise there was a market for such guff?

Pretty moving picture time

There's been too many words here lately, so here's a bit of video of the Tokyo Disney light parade taken by me a couple of weeks ago. More commentary on the Japanese and Disney is to come, but just pretty pictures for the moment:




And hey, I've just learnt how to rotate an AVI file with the freeware VirtualDub. (Makes for a small image here, though):

Prediction: Ellen will weep for days

In California, the presidential race is taking a back seat to gay marriage. - Slate Magazine

Fascinating article here about the unexpected twists and turns in the proposed constitutional ban on gay marriage that Californians will be voting on when they go to the Presidential polls.

The proposition initially looked doomed to fail, but a case of over-reach by some gay marriage supporters - a school taking its first graders on a field trip to their teacher's lesbian wedding (!) - has been a gift to their opposition.

Can you imagine how much Ellen DeGeneres will carry on about this if the ban gets up (as many think now will happen)?

Use it or lose it

BBC NEWS | Health | Internet use 'good for the brain'

So, using the internet might help older folk hold off dementia.

Good news for my 85 year old Mum, then. She took up the internet about 4 years ago (good), but spends about 90% of her time on line checking the latest on the Colin Firth fansites (embarrassing). She even wrote to his fan club and got a "signed" photo sent back to her. She likes to believe he signed it personally.

I suppose if she ever does get dementia, me and my brothers could keep her happy by just introducing ourselves as Colin when we visit her. (Don't worry, I think she would laugh at that suggestion if I told her.)

On target?

I said a few posts back that I expected there would be some criticism of the targeting of the Rudd's sudden spend. It took a couple of days, but it's finally here, via Mike Steketee in The Australian:

Less clear is the justification for making the same payments to all those on part-pensions, including couples who can earn private incomes of up to $66,000 a year and own assets of up to $857,000, not counting their home. Some of them will exercise the discretion to put the money into savings rather than spend it. Weaker still are the grounds for extending the payments to all those with a seniors health card, available to self-funded single retirees with incomes of up to $50,000 and couples up to $80,000. They already benefit from the superannuation tax concessions that become more generous as income rises.

If the Government thinks these people should receive payments, then why not those on much lower incomes who would relish the opportunity for some additional spending power? There still may be the odd bludger among those on Newstart, but they do not have the option of keeping their benefit while they earn $66,000 a year and hold substantial assets.

It's this sort of stuff that Labor always criticised Howard for.

As for the First Home Owners Grant, people tend to forget that the thing is not means tested at all, and is paid whether you are buying a $200,000 fibro house in Cunnamulla, or a $2,000,000 apartment with harbour views. As Steketee (jeez I wish he would change his name by Deed Poll) says:

If the aim was truly to maximise the spending bang for the government buck, at least some of the money could have been better used to expand the new and promising scheme to subsidise the building of low-rent housing. As well, the Government could have taken the opportunity of slack in the building industry to increase public housing, which, after taking account of population growth, has fallen 100,000 homes below the level of 10years ago.

I am still waiting to see more criticism of the short fuse of this spending too. If blown too quickly, I don't see how it will do much more than delay a big slow down by more than a quarter or two.