That'll help your credibility Tony

Abbott pencils in date with Monckton

Well much fun was to be had watching Kerry O'Brien put the precise questions to Abbott that the media had until now failed to ask:

KERRY O’BRIEN: Mr Abbott, you are using terminology like there's evidence evidence that carbon dioxide might be a problem. When you put that alongside what you told that audience in regional Victoria in October last year, "The climate change argument is absolute crap, however the politics are tough for us because 80 per cent of people believe climate change is a real and present danger". In other words, the only conclusion you draw from that is that you are saying, "We have to have a climate change policy because the people believe it's a danger, but I believe it's crap".

TONY ABBOTT: Well no, and as I said before, there was a little bit of rhetorical hyperbole in there which does not represent my considered position, I am not as evangelical about this as Prime Minister Rudd is. I am not theological about this the way Prime Minister Rudd is, but I do think it's important. And that is why I'm prepared to invest $10 billion over the coming decade to bring about things which will be good regardless, good for the environment, regardless of your views on the role of carbon dioxide in climate.

KERRY O’BRIEN: So when you say a bit of rhetorical hyperbole in that conversation with that audience you say you adjust the message to whatever audience you are playing to, if that's the case, how do we know you haven't adjusted your message for this audience?

TONY ABBOTT: Casually all of us are loose with our language, that was an occasion when I said what I shouldn't have said. It didn't represent my correct position.

KERRY O’BRIEN: There's nothing loose about the meaning of a term, nothing loose about the meaning of a term that says "absolute crap".

Now Abbott will help distance himself from the obvious charge that he is a climate change fake by meeting with Monckton? Ha.

ERF! Indeed

Abbott’s answer to climate change: ERF – Crikey

A critical look at Tony Abbott's plan you have for reducing CO2 emissions when you don't believe there is a need for reducing CO2 emissions.

I heard Abbott on the local radio this afternoon, claiming again that the "crap" comment about AGW was a "rhetorical flourish", and in fact he believes that (to paraphrase closely) something probably is going on with the climate, and it is prudent to take steps to reduce CO2.

Well, I will wait for the criticism of Andrew Bolt and Tim Blair to begin then. They wanted a disbeliever in AGW to lead the Coalition, but they didn't get it. (Or so he says. It depends on what day you ask him, and who he is talking to.)

If Bolt is to be consistent, he should be ridiculing Abbott 'til the election for daring to spend a cent on CO2 reduction.

The Church of Biff

More Churches Promote Martial Arts to Reach Young Men

This is just weird:

The young man was a member of a fight team at Xtreme Ministries, a small church near Nashville that doubles as a mixed martial arts academy. Mr. Renken, who founded the church and academy, doubles as the team’s coach. The school’s motto is “Where Feet, Fist and Faith Collide.”Mr. Renken’s ministry is one of a small but growing number of evangelical churches that have embraced mixed martial arts — a sport with a reputation for violence and blood that combines kickboxing, wrestling and other fighting styles — to reach and convert young men, whose church attendance has been persistently low.

The gloomy future

News Analysis - A Decade of Enormous Deficits May Alter American Politics and Power - NYTimes.com

When the New York Times starts talking up deficit woes, it's probably serious.

A rare recommendation

Pajamas Media - When It Comes to Nuclear Power, Companies Should Think Small

There's very, very little that I bother recommending now from the anti-AGW infested site Pajamas Media, but this article on the apparent economics of small nuclear modules (about to go into production in the States) against giant nuclear power stations is worth a look.

Leading the world in toilet technology again!

Japanese machine turns office paper into toilet paper (w/ Video)

For a mere $100,000 investment, anyone who works in an office may be able to free themselves from the need to purchase toilet paper again.

I reckon my office could supply several households with toilet rolls.

But - if Australians took up the Japanese toilet bidets, it would probably save a lot more trees at better economy than this device.

Arguing targets

BBC News - 55 countries send UN their carbon-curbing plans

We'll be hearing more about this, no doubt. Especially this section:

The US previously pledged a cut of 17% from 2005 levels by 2020 (equivalent to 3% from the conventional baseline of 1990).

But its current submission promises a cut "in the range of 17%, in conformity with anticipated US energy and climate legislation, recognising that the final target will be reported to the Secretariat in light of enacted legislation".

Canada will also amend its target of 17% to make it align "with the final economy-wide emissions target of the US in enacted legislation".

And as for the other big players:

Among developing countries, China re-affirms that its 2020 target is a cut of 40-45% in carbon intensity and that this is to be regarded as voluntary, while India has retreated from a firm pledge to improve its energy intensity to a position where it promises to "endeavour reduce its emissions intensity" by 2020.

I guess there are ways this can be spun for both Rudd and Abbott. Abbott will argue that Rudd's tiny target is still ahead of the USA; Rudd can say that what he is doing is consistent with China's "reduce carbon intensity" approach.

What I am waiting for is a journalist to say to Abbott - "what is your reasoning for taking any action at all, given that we know that a claimed majority of your party believes that there is no reason to do anything at all about CO2 emissions, and you yourself described global warming as "crap" barely 4 months ago?"

Fish oil, part 2

Fish oil 'reduces youth psychosis'

After recently posting about the benefits of fish oil for adults who want to slow aging, this news of another (somewhat unexpected) apparent benefit of it for the young is worth noting:

In the study, published in the Archives of General Psychiatry journal, 41 high-risk patients were given four fish oil capsules a day for three months. Only two of them developed a psychotic disorder, compared with 11 of another 40 who took a placebo...

High-powered anti-psychotic drugs can come with metabolic changes, sexual dysfunction and weight gain which are often not acceptable for young people, leading to high drop-out rates.

Very few people dropped out of the fish oil treatment regime, and a 12-month follow up showed the effect seemed to protect the brain even after the patient stopped taking the pills.

What isn't it good for?

Clarification on that water vapor story

The role of stratospheric water vapor in global warming

Yet again, John Cook does a clear and enlightening post on that "less water vapour in the stratosphere" story I posted about below. Bottom line:

There seem to be two major misconceptions arising from this paper. The first is that this paper demonstrates that water vapor is the major driver of global temperatures. In fact, what this paper shows is the effect from stratospheric water vapor contributes a fraction of the temperature change imposed from man-made greenhouse gases. While the stratospheric water vapor is not insignificant, it's hardly the dominant driver of climate being portrayed by some blogs.

The other misinterpretation is that this paper proves negative feedback that cancels out global warming. As we've just seen, the magnitude of the effect is small compared to the overall global warming trend.

iWant - I don't

Charlie Brooker | iPad therefore iWant? Probably. Why? iDunno

Charlie Brooker has some good cynical lines about the iPad. This is probably the best bit:

Apple excels at taking existing concepts – computers, MP3 players, conceit – and carefully streamlining them into glistening ergonomic chunks of concentrated aspiration. It took the laptop and the coffee table book and created the MacBook. Now it's taken the MacBook and the iPhone and distilled them into a single device that answers a rhetorical question you weren't really asking.

On a more serious note, it seems to me that Apple's failure to get on with Adobe (so that Flash content will not show on the iPad) is a very big reason not to buy an iPad:

In a blog post last week, Adobe group manager Adrian Ludwig railed against iPad and restrictions on Apple devices "that limit both content publishers and consumers".

"Without Flash support, iPad users will not be able to access the full range of web content, including over 70% of games and 75% of video on the web," Ludwig wrote.

This limitation does not apply to the games and other content available through Apple's App Store, as these apps are coded specifically to suit Apple's devices.

On the unofficial TheFlashBlog.com, Adobe platform evangelist Lee Brimelow provided several screen shots showing examples of web content that would be unavailable on the iPad, such as parts of CNN.com, Farmville.com, video streaming websites such as Hulu.com, porn sites, graphics on Google Finance, web games and much of Disney.com.

The coming ghost towns of Europe

The population crash | Fred Pearce | World news | The Guardian

Here's a pretty compelling extract from a book looking at Europe's dwindling birth-rate and aging population. (The situation with emptying towns is already very dire in East Germany, apparently.)

Red faces

Did rice wine lead to flushed faces in Asia? - New Scientist

As it happens, today I witnessed this first hand. I convinced an Asian friend, who assured me he did not often drink alcohol because of the severe face flushing it causes him, to at least try a Cascade Premium Lite. (Alcohol content: 2.6%.)

It was still enough to cause a very noticeable flush. It did seem to fade by the end of the schooner, though, but he wouldn't take up my suggestion that he now try a full strength beer to see if he had broken some sort of barrier.

The science behind it is explained in the New Scientist article as follows:

A mutation that causes some Asians to flush red when they down a beer may have evolved to help their ancestors cope with rice wine. A genetic study suggests that the mutation evolved around 10,000 years ago, about the same time as Asians were starting to farm rice and figuring out how to ferment it into boozy drinks....

The mutation causes alcohol to be metabolised at 100 times the speed that it otherwise would be. As the enzyme removes alcohol so quickly from the blood stream, it protects people from the harmful effects of alcohol, and Su believes it confers an evolutionary advantage: a study in the Han Chinese suggests that those carrying the mutation have the lowest risk of alcoholism (American Journal of Human Genetics, vol 65 p 795).

The mutation also causes a by-product of the alcohol's metabolisation to accumulate in the body, which makes those who have the mutation flush red when they drink.

So, this mutation has the embarrassing effect of making you look like a quick drunk, which (like my lunch mate) causes some sufferers enough embarrassment to not want to drink at all, but actually it sounds like they should be capable of drinking with relative impunity. How ironic.

School tables

ABC The Drum Unleashed - Julia Gillard: a political dill

So, it turns out that Bob Ellis can't stand Julia Gillard and criticises everything she has ever done. I'd guess that there is some personal history there that Ellis is not revealing.

But on the point of ranking schools, which Ellis disagrees with, someone in comments makes the point that a friend (a former teacher in fact) made to me on the weekend. That is, it's the private schools that might have a lot to lose in this. The Myschools site makes it easy to check how much value you might be getting for sending your kid to an expensive school, and it may not be as good a deal as expected.

Typical Democrats

Apart from the original race to the Moon being a Democrat initiative, it seems that since the 1970's, Democrat Presidents have only ever been about cut backs and bad news for the American space program. This tradition is, as I pretty much expected, continuing under Obama with this annoucement that the manned space program is going to yet again be stuck in low earth orbit indefinitely.

They (Democrats) seemingly have no vision about the future at all. I mean, does anyone feel that Obama actually has any daring in his approach to the energy future of the US or the world?

Bah.

Japanese economic woes

BBC News - Japan deflation hits a record pace to threaten recovery

On the up side, I guess this makes it more attractive for tourists.

(Jetstar continues to offer ridiculously cheap air fares to there from time to time. About $650 return from the Gold Coast.)

The silence of the planets

I didn't realise Frank Drake, who kicked off the idea of SETI, was still alive.

But he recently spoke at the Royal Society and explained that changes to broadcast technology is making the earth harder to hear from afar:

"The trouble is that we are making ourselves more and more difficult to be heard," said Dr Drake. "We are broadcasting in much more efficient ways today and are making our signals fainter and fainter."

In the past, TV and radio programmes were broadcast from huge ground stations that transmitted signals at thousands of watts. These could be picked up relatively easily across the depths of space, astronomers calculated.

Now, most TV and radio programmes are transmitted from satellites that typically use only 75 watts and have aerials pointing toward Earth, rather than into space.

"For good measure, in America we have switched from analogue to digital broadcasting and you are going to do the same in Britain very soon," Drake added. "When you do that, your transmissions will become four times fainter because digital uses less power."

"Very soon we will become undetectable," he said. In short, in space no one will hear us at all.

What is true for humans would probably also be true for aliens...

I have a vague recollection of Arthur C Clarke also saying that this would happen. Mind you, I am not entirely sure it is a good idea to make your presence known in the universe, so a bit of quiet from planet Earth might be a good thing.

It is complicated

Water vapour could be behind warming slowdown : Nature News

This article talks about a new suggestion that a drop in stratospheric water vapour might account for a (relative) levelling out of global temperatures in the last decade:

...a team led by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, Colorado, report that a mysterious 10% drop in water vapour in the stratosphere — the atmospheric layer that sits 10–50 kilometres above Earth's surface — since 2000 could have offset the expected warming due to greenhouse gases by roughly 25%. Just as intriguingly, their model suggests that an increase in stratospheric water vapour might have boosted earlier warming by about 30% in the 1980s and 1990s. The team's work is published online by Science today¹.

The effect on temperature is dominated by water vapour in the lower part of the stratosphere, which absorbs and radiates heat in much the same way as water molecules and other greenhouse gases do in the lower atmosphere. The drop in water vapour doesn't explain the entire decrease in the rate of warming, but it could contribute to it, says Susan Solomon, first author of the study

It all seems a very tentative idea though:

Other researchers see different factors at play in the recent temperature trends. A study published last year³ hones in on the solar cycle and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, an upwelling of warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific. Both have been in their negative phases for most of the decade so temperatures may rise as they move into their positive phases.

"I think it's exciting that this [transition] is happening, because we are going to learn a lot," says Judith Lean, a solar physicist at the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington DC, who co-authored last year's study³ with David Rind, a climate modeller at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

The article seems to indicate that no one knows what water vapour in the stratosphere will do in the future.

Other researchers think current models account for the occasional decade long stall in increasing temperatures and it's not a good idea to worry too much about the issue anyway.

You can bet, however, that skeptics will seize on this paper, with their attitude that if something is not completely understood, you don't do anything about it. Which is, by most scientists reckoning, a good way to gamble on potential long term disaster.

Australian bees visit

It's been a while since a photo appeared here, so let's put one up.

The kids noticed these bees in the garden in December. They have unusual behaviour, clinging to a particular stick on a bush overnight, and disappearing again during the day:



It appears that they are Australian blue banded bees. They are solitary (in that they don't build hives), but like to sleep together in small groups. Apparently they are common around Brisbane, but I've not noticed them before. Nice.

All that took 60 seconds?

Well that was sort of humiliating.

I've been blogging for nearly 5 years now, but never got around to downloading a back up copy of it, just in case Google somehow forget who I was or lost all of this valuable(?) work.  (I'm not read enough to be hacked, I figure.)

Anyhow, doing an export of the blog to a hard drive from Blogger is now very easy, but it saves it in a .xml format which doesn't (I think) save photos and just leaves the bones of the blog to be recreated later if necessary.  (I think.)

So I decided I would also download a mirror copy of the site onto my hard drive, using the very handy WinHTTrack Website Copier.  (I haven't used it before, but it worked fine.)  That way it looks exactly the same on my hard drive as it does on the web.

I assumed that this program going back through Blogger and downloading every post and photo would take, I dunno, at least 10 minutes.   Five years of writing and effort should not be able to be downloaded too quickly.

Well, I swear it took less than 60 seconds to finish.  I'm feeling slightly depressed now.

A novel suggestion

The Moon may have formed in a nuclear explosion:

The hypothesis (credited to Charles Darwin’s son George in 1879) is that the Earth and Moon began as a mass of molten rock spinning rapidly enough that gravity was just barely greater than the centrifugal forces. Even a slight kick could dislodge part of the mass into orbit, where it would become the Moon. The hypothesis has been around for 130 years, but was rejected because no one could explain a source of the energy required to kick a moon-sized blob of molten rock into orbit.

Dutch scientists Rob de Meijer (University of the Western Cape) and Wim van Westrenen (Amsterdam’s VU University) think they know the answer. Their hypothesis is that the centrifugal forces would have concentrated heavy elements like thorium and uranium on the equatorial plane and at the Earth core-mantle boundary. If the concentrations of these radioactive elements were high enough, this could have led to a nuclear chain reaction that became supercritical, causing a nuclear explosion.

Would have been good to watch.