Bad figures

Bubble prophet fears new disaster | The Japan Times Online

Quite a lengthy article here on the shaky looking future for Japanese public debt. The pessimists suggest government bankruptcy and hyperinflation in the not so distant future:

Japan's present debt-to-GDP ratio is only comparable with what it was at the end of World War II. At that time, the only way the government could reduce the debt was through hyperinflation, which wiped out much of the people's wealth with skyrocketing prices.

"I can't tell exactly what will happen (this time), but what actually happened after the war was that the price level surged 60 times in just over four years," Noguchi said.

"If the same thing happens again, a ¥10 million bank account will have the same net value of just ¥100,000 today. It's actually possible," he warned.

The answer, some suggest, is a serious increase in sales tax now, but it's a country not exactly known for having brave politicians.

Also in The Japan Times, land values dropped pretty substantially last year throughout the country.

Evil in pearls

The ABC News website today came up with this cracker of a photo of you-can-see-who, looking like Hitler's nastier grandmother, or something.

The problem with iced tea

Drug accused woman freed after substance found to be iced tea

Now for a problem in the Australian legal system. The poor woman:

A Filipina arrested last weekend at Melbourne Airport and charged with drug importation was freed today after the substance was found to be iced tea....

She had been charged with importing a commercial quantity of a border control drug and had been in custody since Saturday.

The court heard the three 800-gram packages of iced tea bought in the Philippines, tested positive on Saturday to a swab and again, in a presumptive test.

A drug dog also indicated a positive result for narcotics when it checked the packages.

But defence barrister Michael Penna-Rees told the court final analysis of the substance by the Australian Federal Police found it was lemon-flavoured iced tea.

He said there had previously been incidents of the tea being wrongly identified as a drug, which in this case was wrongly identified as methylamphetamine and then amphetamine.

I see she got $5000 costs awarded to her. I hope her lawyers, who surely didn't have a hell of a lot to do, aren't taking it all.

Jail for thought crimes

BBC News - Dubai jails Indian pair for 'sexy texts'

Steamy text messages have resulted in a three-month jail sentence for an Indian man and an Indian woman in Dubai.

Judges ruled that they had planned to "commit sin", a reference to an extramarital affair - which is illegal in the United Arab Emirates.

The unnamed pair, aged 47 and 42, were working as cabin crew for Dubai's Emirates airline....

The court said there was not enough evidence to determine whether the man and the woman had actually had an affair, which could have brought a harsher sentence.

What a joke of a legal system.

Small market

American space firm seeks professional astronauts - Telegraph

As opposed to those shonky, backyard operating, fly-by-night kind you see on A Current Affair all the time.

Let the Scientologists deal with it

Rogue star set on collision

I'm a bit slow posting on this one, but here it is anyway:

There is a high probability our solar system will feel the effect of a close encounter from a nearby star, according to a new study.

The star, known as Gliese 710, could disrupt planetary orbits and send a shower of comets and asteroids towards the inner planets when it passes in 1.5 million years time.

The only people alive today who'll need to worry about this are the Scientologists in Sea Org who have signed the billion year contract. Suckers.

Why impossible here?

Study: Daylight saving time a waste of energy

I didn't know this:

The US state of Indiana has 92 counties, but until 2006 only 15 of
them adjusted their clocks for daylight saving time, with the remainder
keeping standard time all year, at least partly to appease farmers who
did not want the change.

That's exactly what people have suggested for Queensland: the South East Corner do daylight saving, but not the rest of the State. The line could easily be drawn through the lightly populated rural stretch between Ipswich and Toowoomba, from the border up to just north of Noosa.

Anyway, Indiana shows that it doesn't save energy there. As you expect, the problem is airconditioning:

Kotchen and Grant's work reinforces the findings of an Australian
study in 2007 by economists Ryan Kellogg and Hendrik Wolff, who studied the extension of daylight saving time for two months in New South Wales and Victoria for the 2000 Summer Olympics. They also found an increase in energy use.

Daylight saving was initially introduced, and has been extended,
because it was believed to save energy, but the studies upon which this
idea was based were conducted in the 1970s. A big difference between
then and the present is the massive increase in the take-up of air
conditioning. In hot periods daylight saving time means air conditioners tend to be run more when people arrive home from work, while in cooler periods more heating is used.

Just give us solar panels to run our airconditioners, and we'll be OK.

Reason to be sceptical

Iron Fertilization In Ocean Nourishes Toxic Algae - Science News

It's a pity that an idea that initially sounded like a good candidate for geo-engineering to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere now seems to have many potential adverse consequences.

Just shows the importance of actually reducing the production of CO2 in the first place.

Blog added

I'll be adding a new blog to the blogroll (under "the meaning of life" category): Neuroskeptic. Found via Mind Hacks, it contains so many fascinating and well written posts that I wanted to bring it to people's attention. This latest one about quitting tobacco is a good example.

Where's the truth on soil carbon?

Abbott carbon plan 'unworkable'

From the report:

TONY ABBOTT'S ''direct action'' climate strategy would reduce emissions by only half as much as the Coalition claims because it made over-optimistic assumptions about the amount of carbon that could be stored in soil, a study suggests.

Soil carbon accounted for 60 per cent of the proposed emission reductions in Mr Abbott's climate policy, or about 85 million tonnes of carbon a year by 2020.

But according to the analysis, only 27 million tonnes a year is possible and only 18 million tonnes at the low price the Coalition has budgeted to pay for soil carbon from its multibillion-dollar ''direct action'' emissions reduction fund.

Last month the Coalition said its scheme would match the government's promise to cut emissions by at least 5 per cent by 2020, but would do this by buying abatement directly from farmers and industry - not by putting any price on carbon.

But the analysis, by ClimateWorks - a partnership between the Myer Foundation and Monash University - and McKinsey management consultants, suggests the scheme would either deliver far smaller emission cuts than the Coalition claims or would cost far more than the $3.2 billion budgeted over the first four years.

It seems to me that there are dubious claims being made by some scientists about the potential for soil carbon in Australia. I don't have time to search it out now, but a few weeks ago there was a woman talking on Phillip Adam's Late Night Live about soil carbon having a huge potential, even greater than what the Opposition seemed to allow for it. I thought her claims sounded far fetched, and this report indicates I might be right.

Gossip time

Memo to Tony and Kevin: no sex please, we're voters | The Australian

There's a bit of new gossip about our political leaders and their attitudes towards sex and women in this article.  I think its take on both the uptight PM and the too-loose lips of the Opposition Leader seems about right.

It notes that in Abbott's case, Glenn Milne indicated on Insiders that Abbott's use of "feeling threatened"by homosexuality arose out of a specific incident during his time at the seminary.  In last night's Four Corners, someone mentioned that the seminary not having a "virile" enough environment for him.   With these hints, I'm now curious as to what did happen: was it a one off incident that offended him, or was the problem more of a general quiet tolerance of homosexual activity by one of more priests or seminarians?   If it is the former, I guess most people would think it's a minor matter in the past; if the latter, it does actually involve big questions about sexuality, the priesthood and how the church deals with it.

I see that Abbott finally took the line in Four Corners that he had had "many" gay friends.  It sure took him a long time to realise that this is one way for a politician to try to defuse the issue about personal feelings about homosexuality. 

But, as virtually every commentator in the land agrees, he mainly just has to find a way to gracefully stop answering questions he doesn't want to.

Not a good look

Liberal MP Michael Johnson defends 'unorthodox' fundraising practices | The Australian

Sources have told The Australian that part of the investigation centres
on the activities of the Australia-China Development Association, a
not-for-profit company he set up five years ago that has helped sponsor
his extensive overseas travel.

Mr Johnson said yesterday he had sought and received payments -- made
to the association -- for introducing business leaders.

"I have made introductions to Australian business people, for them to negotiate
deals, and some have shown their appreciation by making donations to the
association," he said. "I have asked in the past and I would ask
again."

Mr Johnson said he had previously made introductions between Asian and Australian mining executives and, although a deal did not eventuate, he would have "asked for a percentage" to go to the association.

"I don't think it is illegal," a defiant Mr Johnson told The Australian yesterday.

"Because no one has done this before the first impression is that it is wrong, but that is wrong."

Mr Johnson said the association was run at arms' length by three independent directors and he applied to them for money to fund his travel.

Surely he can see it's a very bad look, regardless of legalities? Michael was happy to feature prominently in the ousting of Malcolm Turnbull, despite still presenting terribly in media interviews. It would be quite pleasingly ironic for him to lose preselection.

So that's why I've been putting on weight

Obesity and climate top agenda (Science Alert)

A letter signed by more than 350 Australian health scientists has today
been sent to the Medical Journal of Australia, urging Australian
politicians and the public to recognise the link between obesity and
global climate change....

The two greatest health threats the human population now faces are
global climate change and the rise of obesity, and its life-threatening
disease consequences, Professor Egger said.

Citing the letter, he said: “Big health gains have been made since the
onset of industrialisation. However, we are now seeing the emergence of
health risks caused by excesses in market-driven consumerism (including
energy-dense processed foods), energy-subsidised exertion-free living,
an over-arching Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fetishism, and, for climate
change in particular, population growth.

Talk about a link too far...

Viral within viral

Earlier today, I first saw the viral video that has now been inserted into this video, to great effect:



It was on Lileks; maybe everyone has already seen it. No matter, it brings tears to my eyes.

Neat

SPACE.com -- Secret Military Space Plane Primed For Test Launch

A secretive military spacecraft resembling a small space shuttle orbiter is
undergoing final processing in Florida for launch on April 19.

The Air Force confirmed the critical preflight milestone in a response to written questions on Thursday.

The 29-foot-long, 15-foot-wide Orbital TestVehicle arrived in Cape Canaveral, Fla., last month according to the Air Force. The OTV spaceplane was built at a Boeing Phantom Works
facility in Southern California.

You can never have enough secret military space planes, I say. They make life more interesting.

Shinto considered

In the land of the kami | The Japan Times Online

There's quite a decent essay here on Shinto, making it sound even vaguer than I already thought it was. There are lots of interesting observations, such as this:

"God" or "deity" seems the best the English language can do with "kami," but this misleads by suggesting a level of exaltation foreign to Japanese worship. The Emperor's former status as a "living god" was not what many horrified Westerners took it to be. In fact, he was a "manifest kami" — hardly the same thing and much less shocking.

Anything, or anyone, can become a kami by being striking or, in some undefined way, "superior" — the literal meaning of the word. The classic definition comes from the 18th-century nativist thinker Motoori Norinaga, who dedicated his life to exalting suprarational Japanese purity over Buddhism's and Confucianism's corrupt enslavement to human reason.

"I do not yet understand the meaning of the term kami," wrote Norinaga (in "The Spirit of the Gods," 1771). "It is hardly necessary to say that it includes human beings. It also includes such objects as birds, beasts, trees, plants, seas, mountains and so forth. In ancient usage, anything whatsoever which was outside the ordinary, which possessed superior power or which was awe-inspiring, was called kami. . . . Evil and mysterious things, if they are extraordinary and dreadful, are called kami . . . "

Rooted in the spontaneous nature- worship of deep prehistory, Shinto is probably the most archaic living religion anywhere in the developed world.

Pretty in pink

Straight from the home garden, taken 15 minutes ago:

Minor, but somewhat intriguing, mystery of the week

BBC News - Mystery of 75 starlings falling from the sky

What an odd sounding event:

The deaths of 75 starlings which appeared to fall from the sky and crash land on to a driveway in Somerset has mystified the RSPCA animal charity.The birds were spotted falling onto the entrance of a house in Coxley in Somerset on Sunday 7 March.

Ms Sparkes said: "Onlookers said they heard a whooshing sound and then the birds just hit the ground. They had fallen on to the ground in quite a small area, about 12ft (3.6m) in diameter.

They appeared to be in good condition other than injuries that they appear to have suffered when they hit they ground. "Our best guess is that this happened because the starlings were trying to escape a predator such as a sparrow hawk and ended up crash landing."

That sounds a rather unlikely explanation, doesn't it? But then, I suppose being swatted by a passing invisible flying object (is there a military base near there?) may sound to some as implausible too.

Lane amuses again

I have to admit I have never seen a Paul Greengrass film, even though the Bourne movies have proved popular and United 23 got good reviews. I'll catch up with some of his work eventually.

But I do know from David Stratton's reviews in particular that Greengrass is one of the worst offenders of overuse of "shakey-cam" style of fast, jiggly hand-held cinematography. Stratton often complains it makes him feel physically queasy. (I pretty much hate the style too, which is part of the reason I haven't rushed to see Greengrass in the cinema.)

Anthony Lane's New Yorker review of his latest movie "The Green Zone" indicates that he is probably sick of the director's style too, and I like the way he puts it:

He made two of the “Bourne” films and “United 93,” and his attitude to the average viewer remains that of a salad spinner toward a lettuce leaf. You don’t so much watch a Greengrass film as cling on tight and pray....

...most of Greengrass’s audience will be neither scholars of Iraqi politics nor conspiracy theorists with damp palms and narrowed eyes; they will be natural Bourne lovers, who want the camera to start shaking and grooving in the first minute and never stop.

They have their wish. From the echoing factory that Miller scours in his first scene to the climactic wasteland through which he, his interpreter (Khalid Abdalla), and the bullish Briggs (Jason Isaacs), from Special Forces, prowl after dark—all, for different reasons, in pursuit of al Rawi—“Green Zone” approaches every human activity as if preparing to defibrillate.