Another Chinese problem

An increase in the use of prostitutes (and the number of bisexual men) is being blamed for some pretty startlingly bad figures on the recent rise in syphilis in China:

Syphilis was almost wiped out in China 50 years ago, but has increased 10-fold over the past decade to emerge as one of the country's top five infectious diseases, the China Daily said, quoting the ministry of health.

The rate of mother-to-child transmissions jumped alarmingly to 57 cases per 100,000 newborns between 2003 and 2008, from a previous seven cases per 100,000, it said.

What's the rate in Australia, I wonder? This site paints a very mixed picture:

The rates of syphilis in Australia are about 10/100 000, nearly double that in New South Wales, and up to 140/100 000 in the Northern Territory, with a national indigenous rate of 300/100 000.  Despite remaining fairly stable in the heterosexual community, syphilis rates continue to rise in homosexually active men.  Other groups in Australia at risk of syphilis include rural and remote indigenous communities and those from overseas. Most infections are detected in the late latent phase, when the patient is asymptomatic, having passed the early infectious stages unrecognised and undiagnosed. 

The total rate in China, according to this graph that was in the New England Journal of Medicine article that is that basis of this story, indicates a rate of about 20 per 100,000.   So, in fact, the national rate is not all that huge, although I see that some Shanghai is a particularly bad place for it.  But the sharp rise in congenital cases is remarkably steep.  According to the NEJM:

…more than half of pregnant women with syphilis have a spontaneous abortion or stillbirth; and babies with congenital syphilis may have serious, irreversible sequelae with rates of death in infancy of more than 50%

That’s pretty sad.

Crowe stories

A rude awakening

The Sydney Morning Herald has run a story from The Telegraph by the author of a new book on the now (as I understand it) existing-in-name-only Dreamworks studio.  It's all pretty interesting, but as we all love a "Russell Crowe is a vain, preening idiot" story, it's mainly worth reading the bits near the beginning about him, such as this:

While filming [Gladiator] in Morocco, he walked off the set twice. For ''fun'', he challenged crew members to foot races only to lose and then complain for days that he couldn't ''run in the sand in sandals''. Years before the actor would become famous for the kind of short-tempered fuse that launched airborne telephones in the direction of hotel receptionists, his diva antics were already at a remarkably impressive level: upset that his assistants' pay wasn't high enough, he placed an angry call to Gladiator  producer Branko Lustig at 3am. Lustig, in turn, called Spielberg in Los Angeles: ''Steven, I'm leaving. Russell wants to kill me.'

But by far the most detailed first hand account of, shall we say, Crowe's personality "issues" was by Jack Marx in 2006, and happily it is still available at Fairfax.

Why bother existing, revisited

I could put this as an update to my post a few days ago about philosophers (and others) who think it's not such a bad idea for people to just, you know, go away from the universe, but who's going to notice if I do that?

Hence, I'll point out here that the ridiculously productive blogger James Lilek has also visited the story, with pretty much the same reaction that I had, but expressed in wittier form:

You have to love this: let’s say everyone agreed not to have children. Then is there anything wrong with this scenario? The obvious answer is “yes; no children” but since the childless future with no humans at all, just birds and fish and bugs, doesn’t mean any human suffering, then the net amount of suffering is reduced, and we can all have a party. This is also an argument for smothering everyone under 15 so they don’t suffer broken hearts and angsty 20s, which happen to everyone. But don’t worry; he’s just asking questions.

It's all worth reading.

Depends how you define "disaster", I suppose

This is, of course, a very fair and reasonable blog, and although it has long decided that the world ought to be working hard to urgently limit CO2 reductions, it's not above pointing out some of the confusions and exaggerations which occur on my side of the argument.

Hence, regular readers might recall that in January this year, I noted that papers talking about the effect of loss of glaciers in the Himalayas on water flow in Indian and Chinese rivers seemed to be using some pretty confusing figures which were hard to reconcile.

Well, my confusion was justified, it seems. Nature reports on a new paper which tries to put the issue of glaciers and water flow in that area more into perspective. It starts with the heading "Global warming impact on Asia's rivers overblown", which appears to be part of environmental journalists new campaign not to be caught exaggerating again, even when the thing they are reporting on is quite seriously bad. Here are some extracts:

Although global warming is expected to shrink glaciers in the Himalayas and other high mountains in Central Asia, the declining ice will have less overall impact on the region's water supplies than previously believed, a study concludes.

It's an important finding, says Richard Armstrong, a climatologist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, who notes that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had previously predicted dire restrictions on water supplies in Asia. "There clearly were some misunderstandings," he says.

Yes, well, OK, but while the current study did find that the importance of glacier meltwater is not so important for some rivers, it's still pretty important for others:

The researchers behind the latest study began by calculating the importance of meltwater in the overall hydrology of five rivers: the Indus, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, and the Yellow River and the Yangtze in China¹. The authors found that meltwater is most important to the Indus, with a contribution roughly 1.5 times that from lowland rains. In the Brahmaputra, meltwater flow is equivalent to only one-quarter of the volume supplied by lowland rainfall, and, in the other rivers, it forms no more than one-tenth of the input.

Furthermore, the study found that in the Indus and Ganges basins, glacial ice contributes only about 40% of the total meltwater, with the rest coming from seasonal snows. In the other three rivers its contribution is even lower.

OK, so with some model's predicted changes to rainfall/snow, what effect might AGW have?:

Climate change will therefore have two effects, Immerzeel says. One will be to reduce the contribution of glaciers to total run-off. The other will be to change weather patterns, including rain and snowfall. Combining these and looking at averages from five climate models, Immerzeel and colleagues concluded that the change in upstream water inputs will range from a decrease of 19.6% for the Brahmaputra to a 9.5% increase for the Yellow River. The latter, he notes, is due to increased winter rains. "The Yellow River depends only marginally on meltwater," he says, "and, on average, the models project an increase in winter precipitation in the Yellow River basin."

What this means, Armstrong says, is that river flows are dominated by seasonal rains. "The glaciers are tiny, compared with the monsoon," he says.

All sounding relatively comforting, kind of, until you hit the next paragraph:

Nevertheless, the study concludes that climate change will reduce water supplies enough that by 2050, declines in irrigation water are likely to reduce the number of people the region's agriculture can support by about 60 million — 4.5% of the region's present population.

So the previous over-estimation of how many in India may be badly effected by AGW within 40 years is downgraded to a mere three times as many as the population of Australia.

How very comforting for them.

Of course, precise predictions of changes to rainfall is one of the rubberiest areas of climate science at the moment, but still, it would seem a fair bet that one of the worst hit areas from human induced climate change will be the relatively helpless poorer people in parts of Asia.

Mysterious programming

I see that in 2008, I mentioned how enjoyable I was finding the BBC's current incarnation of Robin Hood. (One suspects it gives much more pleasure than Russell Crowe's movie version.) It's one of those rare programs that is sufficiently sophisticated for adults, yet is enjoyable for the younger family members too.

After the traumatic ending of series 2 (it really was a surprise, and quite moving, and if you have no intention of watching it, you can find out what happened here), I was aware that a third series was in production and was on the look out for it on Australian TV.

Well, sad to say, ABC has decided to run it on ABC2, which I don't always think to check on Saturday night, and as a result I've come in late to this series 3.

I still think it's a good show, although it's probably right that it ends with this series. It's hard to see where else it could go.

Free speech in Kuwait

Kuwaiti activist's detention extended until June 21

A Kuwaiti court on Monday extended the detention of Kuwaiti lawyer
and columnist Mohammad Al Jasem until June 21.

The court said that it would hear the testimony of an investigation
officer on the case that has divided the Kuwaiti society and sparked
international calls for the release of the 54-year-old detainee.

Al Jasem, charged with damaging national interests, told the court
that his detention was illegal and his team of lawyers called for his
immediate release, according to Kuwaiti media.


The court kept the defendant in police custody, but agreed to have him
examined by a medical team to assess his health condition. His family
said that he had had heart problems in the past.

The public prosecutor last month imposed a gag on the coverage of the
trial of Al Jasem who last November was detained for 12 days in a
separate case initiated by the Kuwaiti prime minister who accused him of
slander.

I assume America, which took more than a little effort to help this place, is making representations.

Helen's legacy

Gosh, it's been a slow news week as far as I'm concerned. There just hasn't been anything much that I have deemed blogworthy.

But, Colbert's handling of the Helen Thomas resignation amused me:

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Helen Thomas's Reputation
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor Fox News

I also thought that the next segment on Colbert, in which he dealt with the Israeli "aid flotilla", was pretty remarkable in that it managed to be funny without being offensive, and even featured the Israeli ambassador to the US in one of Colbert's interviews which manage to amuse but let some real information and commentary in too.

Reversable eunuchs

BBC NEWS | Europe | 'I was chemically castrated'

In light of Poland introducing compulsory chemical castration for some sex offenders, the BBC has this interview with a Canadian sex offender who found his voluntary undergoing of the procedure quite helpful.

Interestingly, he talks about how, now that he is out of jail but still undergoing the chemical castration, he has a girlfriend, and he's trying to work out how to tell her about his background. (His plan is to stop the treatment at some point.)

Talk about delicate topics to bring up over your dinner date!

MRI videos

I forget what I was looking for when I found these, and they have been around for some time.

But - here a few videos about MRIs that interested me:

* here's a staged demonstration of the powerful magnets in them;

* here's what appears to be the un-staged consequences of forgetting about the powerful magnets;

* here is the latest in Japanese MRI's (it's silly, but I still find it pretty funny.)

Philosopher thinks himself out of existence

Should This Be the Last Generation? - NYTimes.com

This is kind of amusing. Peter Singer looks at the big question of whether it is better to exist or not exist, and notes one recent ultra pessimistic book:

Schopenhauer’s pessimism has had few defenders over the past two centuries, but one has recently emerged, in the South African philosopher David Benatar, author of a fine book with an arresting title: “Better Never to Have Been: The Harm of Coming into Existence.”

Singer sounds quite sympathetic to the arguments, but in the end outs himself as an optimist after all. That's a shame in the way; I would find it quite funny if he joined a philosophical movement that seemed to want to apologise for drawing breath, and causing a new icky human life form to trod the earth.

Reasons he drinks

It's interesting to read Christopher Hitchens explaining in detail his drinking routine, and his very cheery view of the habit.

An odd connection

Gut bacteria may contribute to autism - health - 07 June 2010 - New Scientist

Children with autism appear to have a characteristic chemical signature in their urine which might form the basis of an early diagnostic test for the condition.

The finding also adds weight the hypothesis that substances released by gut bacteria are contributing to the onset of the condition.

The researcher is keen to point out that this has nothing to do with the discredited idea that vaccination causes autism.

More research is coming:

The next step is to confirm the results in a much larger group of age-matched children, as well as following high-risk children from birth in order to identify whether there are markers that precede the development of autistic symptoms.

Colebatch on the mining tax

Rudd In Fight Over 40% Mining Tax

Once again, a good, clear column by Tim Colebatch on the fight over a mining tax.

Meanwhile, Niki Savva makes a suggestion for Tony Abbott that makes a lot of sense to me: don't just resist all mining taxes; take up the miner's suggestion that they could afford to pay more tax and work out a deal with them.

But would Abbott be smart enough to do this?

Angry elephants

AFP: Elephants and humans clash over resources in Bangladesh

The wild Asian elephant wrapped its trunk around Parul Chambu Gong's husband and dragged him, kicking and screaming, into the forest.

His badly damaged corpse was recovered some hours later, and the father-of-five joined the list of an increasing number of Bangladeshis killed by wild elephants each year.

There aren't too many of them in Bangladesh, but those who get angry at being shoo-ed away from crops can be mean:

"I've seen an elephant snatch a torch from a man with its trunk while we were driving away a herd, and throw the flame on a house setting it on fire," said Luise, 51.

I guess it's just lucky that it's hard for an elephant to hold a box of matches with feet like that

Sunday at the Dominion

Yesterday went as follows:

* Breakfast: I make pancakes, of the instant "shake" variety. I used to like these, but after making my own from scratch quite a few times, I find I don't care for them anymore. I think it may be the real vanilla essence in the home made ones that makes a lot of difference, but I am not sure. Following my wife's advice, buttermilk does seem to make much nicer result too.

* Attend family church service at the kids school. Is it too curmudgeonly to say that I find the efforts of my kids' teachers to find ways to get their class involved in the once a year family service downright awful? I mean, yesterday's effort involved a little play (performed by four10 year olds) about the importance of "respect", in which a couple of parents made the family's elderly grandfather eat his dinner from a wood bowl in the corner of the room so that he didn't mess up the table with spilt food. I can't quite remember now how it was that the kindly child in the story convinced the parents they were wrong and let the grand-dad come back to the table for meals; somehow he shamed them into it.

Is this a scenario that is in any way likely to resonate with the middle class family kids in attendance? Who writes these stories? Hasn't someone written a book of better mini-plays for 10 year olds to perform in church services?

Furthermore, as I know some of the parents attending are not even Christian, let alone church going, does the church really have to use graphics (on their screens that show the words to the songs) which are all of "Jesus is my friend and likes to give me hugs" variety? Does this church only use these graphics for family services, or all the time?

(It is, I should hasten to add, not a Catholic church, although I admit the local Catholic church I am familiar with likes to use some of the same pop-ish "Jesus I really, really love you" songs too.)

Of course, you can't really say there is anything wrong with praise and worship per se in the Christian context. I suppose you could, if you are protestant, easily ridicule the Catholic veneration of the Eucharist which, incidentally, you don't see much anymore. But that Catholic style of worship had a certain, I guess, gravitas about it which seems much more appropriate to a God who is powerful and beyond complete human comprehension, rather than the singing of the equivalent of love songs to the guy next door.

* Lunch at McDonalds: happily, the kids generally prefer Subway as fast food now, which is definitely a healthier option, but the urge for McDonalds still arises sometimes. I see the fiddling with the menu is continuing apace, but I do think the Chicken Deluxe burgers are now pretty good. I'm still not convinced by the Grand Angus at all.

* Possibly succeeded in attempt to teach my mother about how to use Youtube. It was, of course, in the context of an 86 year old woman whose only interest in the internet is keeping up with the latest Colin Firth news. She wanted to see him accept his best actor award from the Venice Film Festival, even he only spoke in Italian. She was one of the hundred or so people who went and saw A Single Man in Brisbane, fully aware that it was about a depressed gay man, which is not the type of film she would normally seek out. But if Colin appeared in the equivalent of "Shortbus", she would be there to see it.

* Scared the kids. Showed them the first and end bits of The Twilight Zone movie. The middle is hardly worth bothering with, but the updated version of Nightmare at 20,000 Feet - my God it's fantastic. It's the perfect scary mini-movie, suspenseful and frightening without involving blood or loss of limbs at all. (I have no stomach for too much violence in horror.) Add a touch of unexpected humour, and it's perfect. Directed by George Miller I see. (I had forgotten that.)

That was followed by watching a couple of episodes of the original Twilight Zone. My wife had hired this at the library for me and the kids - which just goes to show that she is a good match for me. A couple of things I noticed:

- the two episodes I saw were written by Rod Serling himself and I was struck by their literary quality. The dialogue was quite dense and (to my mind) of a quality more akin to going to the theatre than watching the more "realistic" dialogue of today's TV dramas. (Not that I watch much of that to know, I guess.) It did make me feel a little as if the whole world has dumbed down quite a bit since I was a child.

- Rod Serling was really a deeply unattractive looking man.

* Dinner: my wife prepared a nabe cooked at the table with gyoza dumplings for the protein. A family sharing a meal at the table is good, but I think sitting around and participating in the cooking in front of you is even better. Some sake (Australian Go-Shu brand is fine) helps every Japanese style family meal too.

* Watched Dr Who: I actually thought last night's episode was pretty good, but it's the first of a two part-er, so we'll see how it pans out next week.

Update: it has occurred to me that a Twilight Zone style story may work well in church service requiring a morality mini-play put on by 10 year olds. Some kid in a suit could come out at the start with a fake cigarette and heavily made eyebrows to introduce the story, and then tell us the lesson at the end. I would be the one laughing loudly at the back of the congregation, while everyone else just gets confused.

Pardon?

I think Kevin Rudd swears in ways I don't even understand:

Meanwhile, there has been no official word yet from China after backroom comments Mr Rudd made during last year's Copenhagen climate change conference were reported in an essay by the Herald journalist David Marr. ''Those Chinese f---ers are trying to ratf--k us,'' Mr Rudd reportedly told a group of journalists and officials during a background briefing.

While our socially inept Opposition Leader doesn't know when to stop talking politics at an Italian Day function:

At this point, many in the 500-strong audience became agitated, murmuring among themselves that their guest was using the event to play politics.

Mr Abbott kept trying to make his point, but much of the last part of his speech was almost lost as crowd members yelled at him to keep politics out of the event. One man stood up, telling the Opposition Leader: ''I'm sorry Tony, this is not a political forum.''

This is the most depressing election choice in the history of Australian politics.

Those confusing glaciers

Glaciers' wane not all down to humans : Nature News

Hey, this isn't posted at Watts Up With That yet, but it's bound to be.  Some study is saying that maybe only half of glacier melt in 20th century was due to climate variations other than AGW:

"This doesn't question the actuality, and the seriousness, of man-made climate change in any way," says Matthias Huss, a glaciologist at the University of Fribourg in Switzerland, who led the study. "But what we do see is that current glacier retreat might be equally due to natural climate variations as it is to anthropogenic greenhouse warming."

Good video of "UFO" rocket

UFO talk rockets around Gold Coast Local Gold Coast News | goldcoast.com.au | Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia

The big, glowing, spiralling thing seen in the early morning sky yesterday all over the east coast of Australia was, of course, a rocket stage in orbit and the best video I have seen of it is embedded at the link above.

Everyone seems to agree it was the privately owned Falcon 9, but why it was letting out such a large cloud of gas I haven't seen explained yet.

Who hates the leaders

George Megalogenis has some interesting commentary on the personal approval ratings of
Rudd and Abbott:

The price of the Opposition Leader’s plus 8 rating among men aged 35 to 49 is consistently poor numbers across all other groups: younger and older men, and all women.

His problem is, officially, with women.

Abbott turns off women of all ages at roughly the same rate - minus 10 - unlike Rudd, who has the young on his side.

Abbott is also in the red with men aged 18 to 34, where his net rating is minus 6. This is possibly the most interesting distinction of all because this is the group where Rudd has residual respect, notwithstanding his reversal on climate change.

Perhaps young people see through Abbott’s tough-guy pose, while adults and seniors see through Rudd’s pretence of having a personal connection to middle Australia.

As to why Abbott is more popular with middle aged men:

The Opposition Leader is increasingly popular with men aged 35 to 49, a sign that the triathlons have impressed blokes confronting midlife crises.

Well, that's kind of embarrassing for my own gender and age cohort.

Of interest to defence forces everywhere

Moving repeatedly in childhood linked with poorer quality-of-life years later

I'm not surprised by this study indicating that frequent moves in childhood is, generally speaking, not good for kids. I personally would have hated moving while I was at primary school especially.

It must be a very major problem for defence forces everywhere as to how to deal with this. (Well, maybe not so much if you are from a relatively small country like Britain, where a weekend commute is nothing like travelling from one end of Australia to another.)

I guess there is no easy solution, unless you go for a gay armed force again, as in the general vicinity of ancient Greece (apparently.)