On the menu today...

Michelle Grattan's summary of the whole issue of Julia Gillard and women is very good.

I have a few comments:

*  the two Ruddite MP's who were happy to go on TV and say they didn't think it was a good idea for Gillard to make the comments she did in her speech to the women's group are complete idiots who obviously have no concern at all for the devastation that a disunited party will cause at an election.   I doubt that Rudd was behind this - his performance on TV yesterday attacking the Liberals on "menu-gate" was good:  he clearly has some stupid supporters, however. 

*  when a politician's first response to an embarrassing document is "I don't recall seeing it", it is usually code for "I saw it but with any luck I'll get away with this if I use this phrase."    It would appear both Brough and Hockey used the formula.   (Hockey definitely did; Brough seemingly has been kept away from the cameras for fear he will stuff up his own defence.)    Given that it appears from the first reports about this late yesterday morning that Brough knew all about how it was (allegedly) created but not distributed, the late arrival of the exculpatory email from the restaurant owner was suspicious too.    Sorry, but given Brough being shown up as a liar before, I think it highly likely he will soon be shown to be a liar again.    If so, this will do more harm than the menu itself.

*  scepticism of the restaurant owner's explanation was evident on breakfast TV this morning, with a reporter outside the restaurant (will this be good or bad for their business, I wonder?)  saying that staff had hinted the menu had been on the tables.   This is all silly business, but it will be fun to see what develops today.

*  there is too much concentration on the messaging rather than the message as far as Gillard is concerned.  Labor supporters like Jane Caro and Eva Cox should just shut up if they want to help.

*  Joe Hockey seems a bit of an unexpected wuss for complaining about Gillard apparently referring to him as a fat man.  First of all, no one remembers that, and secondly, he had gastric by-pass surgery to lose weight, for goodness sake.   If Gillard helped encourage him to a healthy weight, stop whining about it.

A good thing for the government to question

Who really pays for designer vaginas?

Increasing numbers of Australian women are asking their doctors for a designer vagina. So many, in fact, that the government is reviewing whether such surgery should be publicly-funded via Medicare.

Over the last ten years, claims through the medical benefit scheme (MBS) for labioplasty have increased from 200 to over 1,500 per year. The resulting cost, rising from $40,000 to $740,000 annually, has led to a government review questioning the procedure.

As the article says,  there is virtually no doubt at all that the demand for this surgery is driven by a combination of the ubiquity of pornography due to the internet, and the fashion for pubic hair removal.   Perhaps a government advertising campaign against both is called for?  (Well, it would be interesting to sit in on the ad agencies workshopping such a campaign, at least.)  

Quite the nutter

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vaccine conspiracy theory: Scientists and journalists are covering up autism risk. - Slate Magazine

Wow.  Robert F Kennedy comes out sounding quite the conspiracy nutter in this Slate article detailing his anti-vaccination theories.  

Saletan on the NSA kerfuffle

The NSA’s phone-call database: A defense of mass surveillance. - Slate Magazine

I find it hard getting excited about this issue - I thought all sensible people just assumed that no electronic communication was free from secret US (and probably other countries) access.   

But William Saletan has a column explaining some of the detail of the current story that is exciting both the Left and Right in the US, for very different reasons. 

M'eh.   Still seems no big deal to me.

Free advice to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard

Dear Kevin & Julia,

If you really, really want to help Labor, and (for Kevin) preserve the possibility of returning to the leadership in the future, here's what you could do:

1.  Kevin:  start referring to the Prime Minister as "Julia", on TV, not all the time, but at least once or twice between your insistence on referring to her as "the Prime Minister" (as if her actual name remains poison to you.)

2.  Kevin and Julia:  stage a very public reconciliation meeting for the cameras (perhaps with a couple of other Rudd "enemies" in the background) at which Kevin refers to "Julia" at the key point where he explains that you are reconciled, and Kevin makes it clear that he will co-operate in all respects with campaigning and media appearances so as to not give the impression that he is still competing for the leadership.

3.  Julia:  at the reconciliation meeting, explain that Kevin will return to Cabinet  in the event of the return of the Labor government.  Use the reasoning that it's obviously too late to fit him back in now, and returned Prime Ministers typically do re-shuffle things a bit.  Talk him up as obviously a person who the public wants to see in a more prominent role in government, and you are willing to accommodate this.

Is it beyond the realm of possibility that such an obviously useful tactic could be achieved by Labor?

Colebatch on the dollar, again

Blame it on the dollar, but can we rein it in?

My favourite economics commentator emphasises in this column how much the high Australian dollar alone has been responsible for many business's high operating costs:

Between 2010 and 2013, the IMF estimates, we and our producers have been paying a staggering 55per cent more for goods and services than our US counterparts.

Our costs against the US and the world have doubled in a decade. Not all of that is due to the dollar. Wages and prices have kept rising at vaguely normal pace here, while barely growing at all in Europe, Japan and the US. But the dollar's rise is the main reason.

Since 2010 its average value has been almost 50 per cent higher than it was in the years from 1985 to 2005. Whether you are Ford, BHP, the University of Melbourne or a Wimmera wheat grower, that is a crushing competitive burden.

Relief has come in recent weeks. As the US recovery gains strength and our economy weakens, the dollar has fallen 10 per cent since April 12, when it stood at a 28-year high on the Reserve's index.

But it also sank below parity for some weeks in 2010, 2011 and 2012, only to return again. And it needs to fall much more before many Australian producers will feel confident to invest and expand.

Back to that Lee Smolin book...

Further to my recent post regarding physicist Lee Smolin's new book, I see that someone at Backreaction has put up a link to a copy of its review in Nature.   It makes the argument in the book a little bit clearer.

Something to come back to

At about 70 pages, I don't have time to read this essay I found at arXiv on physics, free will and Turing, but I will come back to it.

Reviewing Darwin and Johnson

Essay Book Reviews - Irish Book Reviews - Dublin Review of Books

I mentioned late last year that there is a short book out by Paul Johnson about Charles Darwin.

This lengthy review is of the kind that seems to make it unnecessary to read the book.  I like this kind of review...

Hope for my brain

Nuclear bomb tests reveal brain regeneration in humans - health - 07 June 2013 - New Scientist

Nuclear bomb tests carried out during the cold war have had an unexpected benefit.

A radioactive carbon isotope expelled by the blasts has been used to date the age of adult human brain cells, providing the first definitive evidence that we generate new brain cells throughout our lives. The study also provides the first model of the dynamics of the process, showing that the regeneration of neurons does not drop off with age as sharply as expected.

Very clever work.

Spices considered, and nutmeg revisited

This seems to be the second series on SBS I've seen in the last couple of years devoted to spices, but I have been enjoying Spice Trip.  Last night they were on Grenada, a country you rarely see on travel shows, looking at nutmeg and mace.

Curiously, the male co-host, a London chef with a name (Stevie!), voice and manner which I thought indicated he was gay, last night noted that he has one child and another on the way.  (He has a wife and two sons, I see.  Maybe the English really are the easiest nationality to mistake as gay.)    This came up in the context of the alleged aphrodisiac qualities of nutmeg - people from Grenada talk a lot, it seems, about how a meal full of nutmeg will assuredly make you "horny". 

My decreasing number of long term readers will recall my interest in nutmeg because of Uncle Scrooge having an addiction to nutmeg tea, which turned out to be kind of unfortunate because you can indeed get high (although not pleasantly so, apparently) from consuming too much of the spice.    And yes, this did get mentioned on the show last night, with a warning that you should consume no more than 5 g a day, and (if I recall correctly) more than 15 g might kill you (!).   I must now weigh a nutmeg nut to check its weight.

Anyhow, I see the whole episode is on DailyMotion, if you are interested:


E4 Spice Trip - Nutmeg - Grenada by zodiacza

What was I saying about Christopher Pyne earlier this week?

Christopher Pyne's strained relationship with the truth* continues to be operating at crisis level, and I don't think they're ever going to be reconciled again:  

Lateline - 06/06/2013: Election countdown: CHRISTOPHER PYNE, MANAGER OF OPP. BUSINESS: I understand from sources within the Labor Party that Julia Gillard demanded that she'd also be able to appear.

TOM IGGULDEN: That was denied by both the Prime Minister's office and the ABC.

LEIGH SALES, 7.30 PRESENTER: For the record, I can confirm that the Prime Minister did none of those things.

TOM IGGULDEN: Mr Pyne claimed the interview had already been recorded.

CHRISTOPHER PYNE: And in her interview, I'm told from my Labor sources that she has demanded that Mr Rudd rule out a challenge to her leadership.

TOM IGGULDEN: In fact, that question was put by Leigh Sales.

* heard at their counselling session:  "It's like he doesn't know me anymore.  I ring, and the next day he claims he can't remember".

Worth a try

Google rolls its own keyboard app for Android 4.0 and up

I have been a bit dissatisfied with Android keyboards on my 10 inch tablet, and find the Apple one better when I go back to use it again, but I haven't really bothered to work out what exactly it is that makes me prefer the latter.

Anyway, a Google keyboard for Android will definitely be worth a try.   Mind you, it will probably form part of the Google grand plan to gather enough information about every user on the planet so as to be able to develop computer based analogues of them in cyberspace.  Maybe this is how resurrection will occur in the distant future, and it's Google in particular which will evolve into God.

I'm sure it's something the process theologians should be giving thought to....

Stephen's problem

Stephen Fry reveals details of recent attempted suicide | Culture | The Guardian

Apparently, he had another suicide attempt last year, despite being on medication for bipolar and being a spokesperson of sorts for mental health.

Like most people, I suppose, I find Fry quite likeable, but suspect his reputation for high intelligence and all round brilliance is probably rather over-rated .   I just wish he would slow down.  He seems the perfect candidate for something like intense meditation for its calming effect.

The remarkable ageing Japan

Japan's oldest community - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I saw this story on Lateline last night and thought it was a poignant illustration of what is happening in the Japanese countryside.

The most remarkable figures from the story are these:

There are more than 7.5 million empty houses and apartments in Japan. That's about 10 per cent of all residences in the country. And here, in this district of Nanmoku, more than two-thirds of homes have been abandoned....

While there are 10 babies in this village, there are also 10 people over the age of 100. 106-year-old Masu Koido is the oldest of the lot.

I didn't quite get why at least one house of a deceased resident, who the neighbours come over to open up every now and then, still seemed to be full of contents and family memorabilia.

If I had enough money, a holiday home in some nice corner of the Japanese countryside would be very pleasant.  A spare one in France is needed too.

Would be interesting if I could read it

Quantum physics: The quantum atom 

This special issue of Nature explores the origin and legacy of Bohr's quantum atom, a model that has resonated ever since. In 1911, Bohr began a postdoctoral year in England that planted the seeds of his thinking. In a Comment on page 27, historian John Heilbron relates how letters from Bohr to his brother Harald and to his fiancée, Margrethe Nørlund, published this year, chart the dauntless physicist's work with J. J. Thomson and Ernest Rutherford, and his study of the papers of John William Nicholson, which presaged his breakthrough.

All stuck behind the ridiculously expensive Nature paywall, unfortunately.   Seriously, who is going to pay £12 for access to an article like that?  

Safety advice

Rescuing drowning children: How to know when someone is in trouble in the water. - Slate Magazine

This is good to know.  It explains how drowning doesn't look like what most people expect.

It certainly seems remarkable how silent it is, given the number of toddlers who drown in backyard pools each year with their parents hearing nothing.  

Looking on the bright side (except for Julia)

The Aussie dollar is doing its bit 

Stephen Koukoulas does his bit to counter the "it's a looming catastrophe" meme that seems to be dominating commentary on the Australian economy at the moment.

The depreciation of the Australian dollar is just the tonic the Australian economy needs.
It will give a welcome income and competitive lift to exporters and will see local firms and industries that are competing with importers get a boost to their activity as the price of imports increase.

For the exporters that maintained solid activity when the dollar was trading around $US1.05, the recent move below $US0.97 will translate directly to higher profits, additional output and jobs. So too for local firms competing with imports.

This sets the scene for a lift in aggregate economic conditions into 2014 and a rebalancing of economic activity a little away from mining and related sectors towards domestic activity.

It is an outlook where the unbroken run of annual GDP growth will almost certainly extend to a 22nd, 23rd and 24th year. This is a truly fantastic performance in the Australian economy.

It is also likely to extend the time in which the unemployment rate has remained below 6 per cent into an 11th, 12th and 13th year.

And aside from the temporary jump in inflation in 2008 which was inspired by the reckless Howard government spending spree, inflation has been within the target range for two decades.

These stunning economic fundamentals have occurred with the Australian dollar being as high as $US1.10 and as low as $US0.4775. Official interest rates have been as high as 7.5 per cent and as low as 2.75 per cent. The budget has registered a deficit as high as 4.3 per cent of GDP and a surplus as large as 2.0 per cent of GDP.

All of which shows that the floating of the Australian dollar, successful inflation targeting from the RBA and a pragmatic approach to fiscal policy have yielded long run economic benefits.

Of course, the terrible thing for Labor is that some commentators believe the Aussie dollar will settle over the next 6 months at about .90US, which will clearly be very advantageous for the economy, and will have nothing to do with a Coalition win in September, but the Coalition will reap the political benefit of it. 

Next for State of Origin?

In what (for me) is an unusual concession to traditional Australian masculinity, I say again that Rugby League as played at its peak in a State of Origin match constitutes the most impressive and watchable sporting event in Australia.

I see in tonight's game that some cameras seem to be being zipped around mounted on Segways.

The next level of camera innovation might be this, one suspects (at least if the 60 seconds it takes for the computer to stitch the image together can be reduced):

 

Good old NHK.

The Catholic Multiverse

The Large Hadron Collider, the Multiverse, and Me (and my friends) - First Thoughts

You don't often see particle physics discussed at the religious blog First Things, but I see that Stephen Barr (a physicist who is a Catholic and writes about religion and science) is doing a bit of bragging that he and some colleagues had suggested quite a while ago (1997) that a multiverse could perhaps account for the odd weight of the Higgs particle.

Barr links to an article that recently appeared at Scientific American about this, which details the argument that comes down to this:

The spectacular discovery of the Higgs boson in July 2012 confirmed a nearly 50-year-old theory of how elementary particles acquire mass, which enables them to form big structures such as galaxies and humans. “The fact that it was seen more or less where we expected to find it is a triumph for experiment, it’s a triumph for theory, and it’s an indication that physics works,” Arkani-Hamed told the crowd.

However, in order for the Higgs boson to make sense with the mass (or equivalent energy) it was determined to have, the LHC needed to find a swarm of other particles, too. None turned up.

With the discovery of only one particle, the LHC experiments deepened a profound problem in physics that had been brewing for decades. Modern equations seem to capture reality with breathtaking accuracy, correctly predicting the values of many constants of nature and the existence of particles like the Higgs. Yet a few constants — including the mass of the Higgs boson — are exponentially different from what these trusted laws indicate they should be, in ways that would rule out any chance of life, unless the universe is shaped by inexplicable fine-tunings and cancellations.

Peter Woit, at Not Even Wrong, who hates the multiverse being invoked as a solution, has also seen the article and is dismissive of it.

I am curious as to how theology would really cope with a multiverse if it was shown to definitely exist. 

Just last night, I was skimming through The Pearly Gates of Cyberspace, the book by Margaret Wertheim that got a lot of attention when it came out in 1999.  (Interestingly, some of it about how the internet could develop - talking about the potential for cyberworlds like Second Life, for example - already reads as very dated.   Spending time as an avatar turned out not to be all that it was cracked up to be.)

Anyhow, the key theme of the book is that cyberspace essentially now serves as the "space" in which heaven and immortality can reside.  She starts off talking about the medieval (or earlier) understanding of the universe as involving a finite, onion like arrangement of spheres, with the heavenly world existing beyond the outer shell.  (I think it is sometimes said that stars were taken to be pinpricks in the outer shell, letting in the eternal light of heaven.)

Well, with a multiverse, you may have an entirely new way to locate something that could pass for heaven.  Or so it seems to me.  The only problem being that there is no obvious way to access it.  Unless you can information leakage from one universe to the next, I suppose.

Don Page is the only other religious scientist I can recall who talks about such things.  I referred to his papers on the multiverse back in 2008.   Perhaps I should re-read him, but I still think there is more room for interesting speculation on the topic.

Update:  Well, that's a co-incidence.  Margaret Wertheim has an interesting article just published in which she covers the big questions of physics, and explains the likes Lee Smolin's book which I just mentioned a couple of posts back.   Here's her take on string theory's version of the multiverse:

The idea of a quasi-infinite, ever-proliferating array of universes has been given further credence as a result of being taken up by string theorists, who argue that every mathematically possible version of the string theory equations corresponds to an actually existing universe, and estimate that there are 10 to the power of 500 different possibilities. To put this in perspective: physicists believe that in our universe there are approximately 10 to the power of 80 subatomic particles. In string cosmology, the totality of existing universes exceeds the number of particles in our universe by more than 400 orders of magnitude....

What is so epistemologically daring here is that the equations are taken to be the fundamental reality. The fact that the mathematics allows for gazillions of variations is seen to be evidence for gazillions of actual worlds.

This kind of reification of equations is precisely what strikes some humanities scholars as childishly naive. At the very least, it raises serious questions about the relationship between our mathematical models of reality, and reality itself. While it is true that in the history of physics many important discoveries have emerged from revelations within equations — Paul Dirac’s formulation for antimatter being perhaps the most famous example — one does not need to be a cultural relativist to feel sceptical about the idea that the only way forward now is to accept an infinite cosmic ‘landscape’ of universes that embrace every conceivable version of world history, including those in which the Middle Ages never ended or Hitler won.

As for Smolin's book, she writes:

Time indeed is a huge conundrum throughout physics, and paradoxes surround it at many levels of being. In Time Reborn: From the Crisis in Physics to the Future of the Universe (2013) the American physicist Lee Smolin argues that for 400 years physicists have been thinking about time in ways that are fundamentally at odds with human experience and therefore wrong. In order to extricate ourselves from some of the deepest paradoxes in physics, he says, its very foundations must be reconceived. In an op-ed in New Scientist in April this year, Smolin wrote:

The idea that nature consists fundamentally of atoms with immutable properties moving through unchanging space, guided by timeless laws, underlies a metaphysical view in which time is absent or diminished. This view has been the basis for centuries of progress in science, but its usefulness for fundamental physics and cosmology has come to an end. 

In order to resolve contradictions between how physicists describe time and how we experience time, Smolin says physicists must abandon the notion of time as an unchanging ideal and embrace an evolutionary concept of natural laws.

I should look around for other reviews of the Smolin book...