Clever, clever birds

Animal master-burglars: Cockatoos 'pick' puzzle box locks (w/ Video)

From the article:

A team of scientists from Oxford University, the University of Vienna, and the Max Planck Institute, report in PLOS ONE a study in which ten untrained Goffin's cockatoos [Cacatua goffini] faced a puzzle box showing food (a nut) behind a transparent door secured by a series of five different interlocking devices, each one jamming the next along in the series.

To retrieve the nut the birds had to first remove a pin, then a screw, then a bolt, then turn a wheel 90 degrees, and then shift a latch sideways. One bird, called 'Pipin', cracked the problem unassisted in less than two hours, and several others did it after being helped either by being presented with the series of locks incrementally or being allowed to watch a skilled partner doing it....

After the cockatoos mastered the entire sequence the scientists investigated whether the birds had learnt how to repeat a sequence of actions or instead responded to the effect of each lock.

Dr Alice Auersperg, who led the study at the Goffin Laboratory at Vienna University, said: 'After they had solved the initial problem, we confronted six subjects with so-called 'Transfer tasks' in which some locks were re-ordered, removed, or made non-functional. Statistical analysis showed that they reacted to the changes with immediate sensitivity to the novel situation"

You can videos of the parrots being extraordinarily clever at the link: it seems I can't embed them.

Here comes the drop

There was quite a bit of interest amongst people who follow the state of the Arctic ice cover earlier this year when a large part of it become fractured and broken in (I think) a way that hadn't been seen before.

But then, the NSIDC graph showing ice melt in summer showed ice cover staying much higher for a month or so longer than last year.

But the drop off in cover is now in progress:

The new, improved Kevin

Honestly, it's not just because I don't want Tony Abbott to win, and everyone knows I have long disliked Kevin Rudd and did not think he deserved his win in 2007; but....

I think it's undeniable that Rudd gave an extraordinarily self assured and good performance on his first 7.30 interview last night.   I feel pretty confident that it would have been causing no small amount of anxiety in Abbott's office as they watched it.  

Then this morning, the headline in the Australian indicates Rudd doing exactly the kind of thing that I had been thinking Gillard needed to do:  be seen to be "punishing" the New South Wales Right.

I am not sure what has happened at News Corp overnight, but even Julia Gillard is getting (well deserved) credit for the grace and dignity with which she took her loss of position last week.  This cannot hurt Labor overall.

And back at the ABC, Alan Kohler makes the point I have elsewhere:  Julia Gillard was remarkably unlucky in many respects (I'll do a post listing them one day), and it is certainly possible that any new government will reap the benefits of some positive changes just coming into effect now:

If the ALP loses this year it can count itself very unlucky indeed: the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Government will have exactly encompassed the second-biggest crash and world recession in history followed by the slowest, most difficult recovery.

Compare that with John Howard, who, after winning that 2001 election, governed during one of the great economic booms in history, escaping into satisfied retirement 24 days after the stock market peaked.

Julia Gillard, in fact, was doubly unlucky because a key part of America's recovery from the bust that its own credit excesses had caused was the debasement of its currency. When the 2010 election was held on August 21, the Australian dollar exchange rate was 89.38 US cents on its way to parity by the end of that year and $US1.10 by mid 2011.

So by coincidence, Gillard's leadership more or less exactly encompassed the period of Aussie dollar strength, caused entirely by US dollar weakness. The good news is that it has allowed 2 percentage points to come off interest rates because of low inflation, but that didn't help Australia's first female prime minister.

 I would not be surprised to see significant betting market odds moving towards Labor as a result of all of this.

Update:   More news of good politics from Rudd:

Kevin Rudd has offered Tony Abbott a series of unprecedented briefings from the nation's security chiefs as he attempts to turn the tables on the Opposition Leader in the debate on asylum seekers.

The Prime Minister has written to Mr Abbott promising access to the heads of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service, the Australian Federal Police, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation and the Immigration Department, saying the coalition should have the latest confidential information on people smuggling.

Rudd's approach to this is very much like Peter Beattie, I think:   admit a past mistake, but move forward with a positive "we can fix it, though" attitude, and people might accept it.

And he is making Abbott look defensive and as if he is the one playing politics if he won't take the briefings on offer.

One final point:  Rudd's manner of speaking last night seemed to me to have few of his old Rudd-isms.    It was more direct, and (if I recall correctly) had none of his faux folkiness which so many have found annoying in the past. 

Update 2:  Anxiety levels are rising at Catallaxy, and the name calling increasing.  How amusing.  

Whoops

I seem to have found a way to delete comments by accident when using my tablet last night.   Two were disappeared, but it wasn't intentional..and I am sorry about that.

How they deal with child abuse allegations in Poland

Poland: A dark side of the Catholic Church | The Economist

Someone writing in The Economist in May this year:

One of the three items also featured my own experience whilst trying to investigate a case for France 24 television. We had spoken to a man who told us he had been abused in the late 1970s by someone who was now rector of a parish in Szczecin. We travelled to the parish and found the cleric in question (who cannot be named for legal reasons) leading mass. Afterwards, I asked him whether he had any comment to make on the allegations, and got an astonishing reaction. Accusing us of filming illegally, the priest led both me and the cameraman into the rectory… and locked us in.

After a few minutes we tried to escape, and were violently blocked by the cleric. Fortunately, in the scuffle that ensued he dropped his keys and we were able to get out. Our detention had lasted less than ten minutes and nobody was hurt. But since we had managed to film the whole thing on two cameras, we gave some of the footage to local journalists.The story made the national news the following day, prompting a degree of fuss, though not exactly an uproar.

What is remarkable is the reaction from the Church. For two days neither parish nor diocese would comment at all. Then came a statement from the diocese spokesman to the effect that they were looking into the possibility of charging us with trespassing and slander. According to prosecutors no such complaint has yet been lodged. We had already reported the incident to the police.

The spokesman also told TVN he had no knowledge of paedophilia charges against the priest in question. The very same spokesman’s signature is on documents relating to the formal complaint the victim lodged with the diocese more than two years ago

A couple of hydrogen fuel cell car stories

Acal Energy says its new hydrogen fuel cell is good for 300,000 miles

From the company's press release:

"Degradation has long held back the potential for the widespread use of hydrogen fuel cells in the automotive sector. Breaking the 10,000 hour threshold during rigorous automotive testing is a key reason our hydrogen fuel cell design and chemistry has been selected for trial by a number of the 6 top automotive OEMs."

He continued: "With our technology, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can drive over 500 miles per tank of fuel, and can be refuelled in less than five minutes, emitting only water. For a driver, the only difference from driving an internal combustion engine car is what's going in the tank, but for the environment the significance of zero carbon emissions is enormous".

I wonder how much a tank of hydrogen will cost, though...

This article Honda, GM plan to establish alliance for fuel-cell vehicle development indicates that quite a few car companies are pursuing the technology, so maybe there is something to it.

The Australian's war on science hots up?

Today it's aging economist Maurice Newman with a litany of crap to the theme of "climate change is bunk" in The Australian.   By the end of the week, it will probably be IPA anti wind gadfly Alan Moran.  We all know from off hand remarks made elsewhere on the web by Judith Sloan (the paper's "contributing economics editor") that she thinks its all overblown rubbish too, but she doesn't tackle the topic head on.   (There are childcare teacher "dimwits" to call out, after all.)

Seriously, is anyone keeping a count on the number of anti climate change articles appearing in the Australian in the last few months?  My impression is that their frequency is increasing, perhaps in anticipation of an election? 

Abbott's scheme taken apart

Tony Abbott's paid parental leave policy: high cost, low benefit | Business | guardian.co.uk

Go to the link for a cool, calm explanation from Greg Jericho as to why Tony Abbott's parental leave is too generous, and too expensive, for no good reason.

A sad case

Parents warned after girl's battery death | The Australian

I for one didn't realise lithium button batteries were as dangerous as this for little kids:

SAFETY experts are trying to educate parents about the dangers of button batteries after the death of a young girl who swallowed one. 
 
Specialists tried desperately to save the four-year-old after she was taken to a hospital on Queensland's Sunshine Coast on Sunday with stomach bleeding.

But there was little that could be done for her.

Safety experts say they're worried parents don't fully understand the dangers in so many household items.

Kidsafe Queensland says an estimated four children a week are rushed to emergency departments across Australia each week after swallowing the batteries.

The biggest danger is when parents don't realise their child has swallowed a button battery, which tends to lodge in kids' throats.

Often parents can simply think their child is coming down with something, with symptoms including vomiting, coughing, abdominal pain and fever.

The Tony Abbott fence straddle continues

Coalition Blow to Local Government Referendum

Tony Abbott is a flaky politician who personally supports the constitutional amendment to clarify once and for all the Federal Government's ability to directly fund local council, but has crumbled under pressure from his dimwit Tea Party/IPA/conspiracist wing of the Coalition to find a way to try to ensure it won't pass.

He's a real disgrace, a million miles from being a "conviction politician" on anything.

A new weapon against high blood pressure

Removing nerves connecting kidney to the brain shown to reduce high blood pressure

Have I heard something about this before?  I can't remember.  Anyway, seems promising (and not overly invasive) for those with really serious blood pressure problems:

A new technique that involves removing the nerves connecting the kidney to the brain has shown to significantly reduce blood pressure and help lower the risk of stroke, heart and renal disease in patients. The procedure, which has very few side effects, has already shown promising results in hard-to-treat cases of high blood pressure....

The procedure, which has been successfully trialled on 19 patients at the BHI, is performed using a fine tube that is inserted in an artery in the patient's leg and positioned in the artery feeding blood to the patient's kidneys. The nerves to the kidney are around the artery and ablated by radio-frequency energy that is emitted from the tube....

Dr Nightingale, who runs the Specialist Hypertension Clinic at the BHI, said: "We have used renal denervation in patients who have hard-to-treat blood pressure. Similar to the results from the basic science experiments, we have also seen reductions in blood pressure which has been essential for reducing the risk of heart and renal disease, and stroke in our patients. This is an exciting new treatment for these patients who have struggled with high blood pressure which tablets are not controlling."

Dr Baumbach, an interventional cardiologist who performed the treatment, added: "The technique is very straight forward, performed as a day case and there are no side-effects. It is becoming a popular technique for patients with both resistance and poor tolerability to high blood pressure medication."

Does Andrew Bolt ever read Catallaxy threads?

Andrew Bolt starts off doing the right thing by calling out anonymous hateful twits who went on line to attack new Labor minister Ed Husic for taking his oath on a Koran, but then he makes a comment which indicates he must (if he was honest) also consider the threads of the Catallaxy (the posts of which seem to supply 30 -50% of his content now) to be the hate-filled poisonous pits:

His anonymous haters are of no account, and do not deserve the attention they are getting. There are too many such trolls on every chat site in the country. They do not deserve to intrude on adult conversation.

Hilariously, the "adult conversation" line is routinely used by the Bolt refugees who have taken over Catallaxy threads as a rejoinder to someone who disagrees with them.

Compare and contrast

Catholic Bishops in the news at Slate:

According to documents released today, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York, moved nearly $57 million into a cemetery trust fund in 2007 specifically to shield it from lawsuits by victims of clergy sexual abuse. The New York Times has the scoop:

[T]he files released Monday contain a letter [Dolan] wrote to the Vatican in 2007, in which he explained that by transferring the assets, “I foresee an improved protection of these funds from any legal claim and liability.”

The Vatican moved swiftly to approve the request, the files show, even though it often took years to remove known abusers from the priesthood.

The files also reveal graphic details of the alleged abuse, including new revelations about its magnitude:

Archbishop Listecki released a letter last week warning Catholics in his archdiocese that the documents could shake their faith and trying to explain the actions of church leaders while offering apologies to victims.

“Prepare to be shocked,” he wrote. “There are some graphic descriptions about the behavior of some of these priest offenders.”

 Catholic Bishops as recently discussed at Father Z's blog:

From a reader:

When I was in grade school (1990′s), I was taught by a very devout teacher that one should genuflect (kneel?) on both knees with a slight bow of the head when entering/leaving the pew during adoration of the Blessed Sacrament.  I have never really seen this any place else, or even heard it discussed.  I don’t recall my grandfather ever doing this, and he spent at least an hour or more before the Blessed Sacrament each week and went to grade school in the 1930′s when all but one of his teachers were nuns.  What is the proper way to genuflect before the exposed Blessed Sacrament?  Thanks!

It is possible, even probable, that there were some variations of practice when the Blessed Sacrament was exposed. Also, conferences of bishops can, by and large, determine proper practices for Catholics in their regions.  If memory serves, some bishops conferences have eliminated the distinction of the “double-genuflection” when the Blessed Sacrament is exposed.  FAIL.

Against the IPA and the whinging anti-nanny staters

One hundred and fifty ways the nanny state is good for us

Simon Chapman attacks the IPA and its generic and predictable "the nanny state has gone too far!" campaign quite effectively, I think; even if one or two on his list of 150 laws which are "good for us" can be quibbled over.

(Just looking at it quickly, the one which I immediately think is legitimately called into scientific question is uniformly enforced bicycle helmets.   I have just read a recent article in the BMJ about the contradictory evidence on this topic, and the reasons why it is so hard to be certain whether it is a net good.   What I think should be clear to everyone is that it is silly to expect city bicycle hire schemes to be wildly successful if riders have to wear helmets while on those bicycles.  Why can't at least those bicycles be exempt?)

But the funniest anti-anti nanny state come back is this quote, which I don't recall seeing before:

Similar attacks once rained down on Edwin Chadwick, the architect of the first Public Health Act in England in 1848. He proposed the first regulatory measures to control overcrowding, drinking water quality, sewage disposal and building standards.

In response, the Times thundered:

We prefer to take our chance with cholera and the rest than be bullied into health. There is nothing a man hates so much as being cleansed against his will, or having his floors swept, his walls whitewashed, his pet dung heaps cleared away.

 That attitude expressed in the The Times uses exactly the same sentiments as Tim Wilson of the IPA and his new bff, the wannabe cultural warrior Nick Cater:

 As News Limited columnist Nick Cater argues in his recent book The Lucky Culture, there is a moralistic crusade by elites who object to “so-called adults” making different choices to themselves.

By standing up against excessive taxes, rules and regulations, Australians are merely objecting to the idea they are “children emotionally and intellectually” because they, for example, like a couple of beers with their barbecue.

 In fact, the idea that The Times could object to laws requiring the cleaning up of a filthy city sounds a bit hard to believe.  But, no, Googling the quote has led me to this page, from the British Library, which confirms that  The Times did indeed editorially campaign against sanitation, as did The Economist (!)  

In fact, in comments very reminiscent of excuses given by small government economists today regarding government led responses to CO2 emissions and climate change, the British Library notes that 160 odd years ago:

While it would seem that many people - from writers like Charles Dickens to social reformers like Henry Mayhew and civil servants like Edwin Chadwick - were in favour of sanitary reform, there were those who were against it. Often, it wasn't that there was opposition to the reform itself but, rather, to the cost or the effort involved in bringing it about.

Some individuals, usually those with an economic interest in property such as landlords, objected to reform measures - including clean water for every dwelling - because of the cost involved to install them in all of their properties.

Others were sceptical that sanitary reform would even improve the population's health. For example, the journal The Economist also objected to the campaign for sanitary reform, mainly because its editor and contributors believed that cholera and other epidemic diseases and illnesses were not directly caused by poor sanitary measures.

 Talk about your lessons from history...

Some pretty good, sweary, analysis

Swear words old and new: Sexual and religious profanity giving way to sociological taboos. - Slate Magazine

There are too many swear words in this article to allow much quoting of it at this blog, but its analysis of how swearing is changing is pretty good, I think.   (Even though it fails to note one big problem with swearing - it can become a very boring verbal tic, and this should be pointed out to all swearers who can't go more than a couple of sentences before using their favourite word again.)

The point that is made regarding the "sociological" taboos is true, I think, and I agree that it, broadly speaking, a good sign:

“What you can see becoming more taboo are racial slurs, but then also anything that kind of sums someone up,” says Mohr. “So people objecting to fat. And especially something I’ve noticed just in my lifetime is retarded. People and kids on the playground just said it all the time. And now, it’s really taboo.”

McWhorter refers to these as the “sociologically abusive” words. “Not God, not genitals, but minorities,” he says, adding a few others to the list. (You know the ones.) These words and utterances, it seems, are tracing a path that is the opposite of the one currently being traversed by bastard and goddamn and other classics of the cursing genre. “Racist, sexist, fatist terms, those sort of things where you insult the way a person looks, or their ethnic identity, have become far more taboo than they used to be,” Allan says. “People with disabilities generally used to be looked at and laughed at, but that’s not allowed anymore. And it’s becoming more taboo.”

......

“Not to sound too Pollyannaish, but I think this is a positive development,” says Mohr, “a sign that culturally we are able to put ourselves in other people’s shoes a little bit more than we were in the past, and, at least notionally and linguistically, respect people of all sorts.”

No one is perfect

No economist or economics journalist is ever completely right.

Take Tim Colebatch, for example.  I've enjoyed his writing this year, but then he came out a couple of weeks ago and said Julia had to go (well, OK, he can claim poll vindication there, but I'm still not convinced), but today he makes this surprising off the cuff claim:

The reason is simple: he keeps rolling out the same old mantras, to the same rusted-on supporters, rather than trying to win the middle ground. His recent policy statements on industrial relations and northern Australia passed muster as sensible policies, but we need a lot more.

No way is the "build infrastructure and they will come" a "sensible economic policy."  In fact, the policy is just to produce a white paper about how to develop the north of Australia, looking at this "food bowl" idea (already looked at a couple of years ago and dismissed as improbable); tourism (which everyone who has been looking at Queensland for the last 3 years knows is vastly subject to currency movements beyond government control, and the weather) and "building an energy export industry" (meaning gas, an idea which private companies are already or planning on doing.)  

 Bad line, Tim.  Even if Gina still owns part of Fairfax, you must get your act together.

The other economics related matter of interest today in The Age is Michael Pascoe's column, in which he suggests Rudd could indeed make a big splash policy wise by promising to borrow a lot of cheap money to build infrastructure.  He says a lot of economists or business figures support this:

Heather Ridout, John Edwards, Warwick McKibbin, Bob Gregory and Bernie Fraser aren't a particularly radical bunch in the usual left-right sense, but to a greater or lesser degree they've all said it could be a good time for the federal government to be borrowing more, not less. The caveat is what that borrowing is spent on: not recurrent expenditure at this stage, but on capital improvements.

Professor McKibbin has been the most radical, suggesting the government borrow big, in the hundreds of billions of dollars big, at low single-digit interest rates and use the money to build infrastructure that offers double-digit rates of return.

A refinement of that broad proposal that would require less borrowing is that the government builds the infrastructure, de-risks it by maintaining ownership for a while (as it turns out the private sector has no idea how many cars might want to go through a tunnel) and then flog it off to the private sector, using the money gained to build the next stage.

Encouragingly, the NSW state budget contained an element of that very thinking in funding the $10 billion WestConnex toll road. With so many failed private-sector tunnels around the nation, the government will build the road, using its access to cheaper finance, and subsequently privatise it.

The NBN model goes part of the way along the Big Idea superhighway, even keeping the funding off the immediate government balance sheet, but it fails on one major test: demonstrable and independently adjudicated double-digit internal rate of return.

McKibbin himself admits the problem with his plan is that you couldn't trust any politician with the money – the temptation to cater for a little vested interest here, a marginal electorate there, some generous political donors everywhere, is too great.

Which is where the establishment of a genuinely independent, arms-length body to supervise the process becomes paramount – a Reserve Bank of infrastructure. Infrastructure Australia is a step in that direction but not good enough, being more of a wish-list body than a ruthless task master.

The Productivity Commission's rigours would need to be employed for a start. Those who have abused government programs in the past would need to be excluded, for example, the Victorian CFMEU after the desalination plant rorting. To be made to work properly, there would be no room for mates of any colour.

It wouldn't be easy to reverse three years of surplus worship, particularly with the opposition sure to run the obvious lines about Labor just wanting to spend and go further into disastrous debt, but it could be done.

Well, as I said on this topic a few weeks ago, I still have this skepticism about how governments (or anyone) can really work out priorities in infrastructure.   I mean, unless its directly related to an industry (a railway line from a mining area to the coast, a new boat harbour near some industry) how do you really put a productivity figure on something like a new cross city tunnel that speeds up a commute by 15 minutes a day?  

I could, I guess, live with massive infrastructure that moves hard towards green energy; but I'm sure many economists would argue that the right technology is something about which governments should not be attempting to pick winners.

A high speed rail system has some Green credentials, but the sparse population that most of it will run through makes it questionable for a country this size.

So, my problem remains:  sure, Pascoe's idea sounds reasonable - but show me the infrastructure that immediately makes sense, and then I'll be completely convinced.

Not to be tried at home

I see that I missed a post at Mind Hacks a few weeks ago about the history of taking drugs in the most unconventional way.  Many wry comments are inevitably to be made when discussing this:

The earliest accounts of rectal administration of psychoactive drugs come from the Ancient Mayan civilization where ritual enemas were commonly used to induce states of trance and were widely depicted on carvings and pottery.

The image above is a Mayan carving depicting a priest giving reclining man a large ritual enema to the point where he sees winged reptile Gods flying overhead. Sorry hipsters, your parties suck.

It wasn’t just the Mayans, though. The historical use of psychoactive enemas was known throughout the Americas and is still used by traditional societies today.

Unfortunately, we know little about the history of similar practices in Africa but they are certainly present in traditional societies today – and largely known to mainstream science through documented medical emergencies.

In contrast, while it seems that enemas and douching were often used in Ancient Europe (for example, Aristides writes in his Sacred Tales that the goddess Athena appeared to him in a dream and recommended a honey enema – thanks your holiness), they do not seem to have been used for bottom-up drug taking.

However, there is some evidence that in medieval Europe, hallucinogenic ointments were applied to the vagina with some speculation that the ‘witch on a flying broomstick’ cliché arose due to the use of a broomstick-like applicator for strongly psychoactive drugs.

As the first synthesised psychoactive drugs became available in the 19th and early 20th Centuries, specialised delivery devices were quickly developed.

Cocaine was especially likely to be applied down-below because, although it makes you high, it is also an excellent local anaesthetic useful for discomfort and minor surgery. The development of cocaine tampons was considered a medical innovation that was “regarded as an especially effective treatment for gynecological diseases”.

I think we can leave it there, before getting to the topic of taking alcohol that way.  

A message across the aether (which will be understood by few - the rest can just ignore it)

Gee, soon Catallaxy open threads will be down to a face moisturising Perth man sharing gin cocktail recipes with a bunch of middle aged women.

That and a handful of other men with anger management issues, a chronic plagiarist whose copied works still appears at the blog, and young male student who likes to defame  female Australian journalists.  (If Latika Burke cares to email me, I'll provide the link.)

Updates:  I have a theory that Sinclair Davidson's continual defence of  Andrew Leigh - which is otherwise incomprehensible, given that every other economist who shares similar positions to Leigh is considered wrong at the blog - must have a science fiction element to it.  Maybe he once travelled back in time and fathered Andrew is my best guess so far.


 

Infallible or not

Why It's Good To Be Wrong - Issue 2: Uncertainty - Nautilus

Physicist David Deutsch has a somewhat interesting article regarding fallibilism, including (partly) in the context of the Catholic Church.   I liked these paragraphs in particular:

Fallibilism, correctly understood, implies the possibility, not the impossibility, of knowledge, because the very concept of error, if taken seriously, implies that truth exists and can be found. The inherent limitation on human reason, that it can never find solid foundations for ideas, does not constitute any sort of limit on the creation of objective knowledge nor, therefore, on progress. The absence of foundation, whether infallible or probable, is no loss to anyone except tyrants and charlatans, because what the rest of us want from ideas is their content, not their provenance: If your disease has been cured by medical science, and you then become aware that science never proves anything but only disproves theories (and then only tentatively), you do not respond “oh dear, I’ll just have to die, then.”

The theory of knowledge is a tightrope that is the only path from A to B, with a long, hard drop for anyone who steps off on one side into “knowledge is impossible, progress is an illusion” or on the other side into “I must be right, or at least probably right.” Indeed, infallibilism and nihilism are twins. Both fail to understand that mistakes are not only inevitable, they are correctable (fallibly). Which is why they both abhor institutions of substantive criticism and error correction, and denigrate rational thought as useless or fraudulent. They both justify the same tyrannies. They both justify each other.

Carbon pricing seems to be working

Is carbon pricing reducing emissions?

A good analysis at the link of whether carbon pricing, and not just a drop in demand, is behind reduced carbon emissions in making Australian electricity.  Here is one crucial part:

Although it’s difficult to point to concrete short term changes in the electricity market, the carbon price is having an impact on long term investment decisions, which is where the real benefits will start to play out. The economics of power systems mean that it’s much easier to materially affect the investment decisions for a new plant than to affect the short-term dispatch decisions of an existing plant. It has been argued that this already means wind is now cheaper than coal if you’re building a new plant, due to the very large impact of the carbon price on financing costs for emissions-intensive generation options.

The market is clearly responding to long term investment signals towards lower emissions generation. The vast majority of new plants in the planning stages are either renewable or gas-fired. Here again we must acknowledge complexity and the contribution of many factors – much of the investment in renewables is driven by the Renewable Energy Target scheme, and could not be supported by the carbon price alone at this stage.

But the lack of proposals for significant new coal-fired plant is a good indication that the carbon price is having an influence over investor decisions. This is where the real pay-off lies – by avoiding the installation of more coal-fired generators we avoid the very significant greenhouse emissions that would result from those power stations over their 30-year-plus lifetime.