Traditionalists must be getting agitated

You don’t have to believe in God to go to heaven, Pope Francis assures sceptics 

The Pope has again said conciliatory things to atheists?   He must be starting to concern traditionalist Catholics of the Michael Voris, Father Z variety.  The latter has not commented yet, but surely something is coming...

A call out to Catallaxy

Gab, and any other woman, who reads this morning's open thread and simply passes over a comment made by a new regular at 6.25, is an absolute disgrace.

The future may be panda powered

Study: Panda Poo May Be Coup for Future of Biofuels | Climate Central

Good to see innovative uses for pandas:

Brown’s team has found more than 40 different microbes living in the guts of giant pandas at the Memphis Zoo that could help decompose the corn cobs and other tough plant materials so it can be more easily and efficiently processed to make ethanol.

The study is using the feces from giant pandas Ya Ya and Le Le. Pandas, which have a short digestive tract, feast on a diet of tough bamboo. Bacteria with extremely potent enzymes break down the woody bamboo efficiently and quickly.

“The time from eating to defecation is comparatively short in the panda, so their microbes have to be very efficient to get nutritional value out of the bamboo,” Brown said. “And efficiency is key when it comes to biofuel production — that’s why we focused on the microbes in the giant panda.”

Brown’s team found the specific bacteria that break down lignocellulose into simple sugars, which can be fermented into bioethanol, and they found other bacteria that can transform those sugars into oils and fats for biodiesel production.

The microbes in pandas’ guts are accessible via their feces and can easily be cultured, Brown said.

What's better than acid on your teeth? Hot acid!

Coca-cola to introduce world’s first canned hot fizzy drink in Japan - Asia - World - The Independent

I wonder if they have buffered the acidity in this drink some way; because I can't imagine that heating up soft drink does any wonders for your tooth enamel.

Hormones are complicated

Middle-Aged Men Can Blame Estrogen, Too - NYTimes.com

The article starts:

 It is the scourge of many a middle-aged man: he starts getting a pot belly, using lighter weights at the gym and somehow just doesn’t have the sexual desire of his younger years.

The obvious culprit is testosterone, since men gradually make less of the male sex hormone as years go by. But a surprising new answer is emerging, one that doctors say could reinvigorate the study of how men’s bodies age. Estrogen, the female sex hormone, turns out to play a much bigger role in men’s bodies than previously thought, and falling levels contribute to their expanding waistlines just as they do in women’s. 

The discovery of the role of estrogen in men is “a major advance,” said Dr. Peter J. Snyder, a professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, who is leading a big new research project on hormone therapy for men 65 and over. Until recently, testosterone deficiency was considered nearly the sole reason that men undergo the familiar physical complaints of midlife.

What a complicated design is the human body, heh? 

Is that right?

Coalition rhetoric a real confidence builder

Michael Pascoe talks about the self fulfilling prophecy of improved business confidence after the election, but ends on this note:

 It is a little bemusing that the only concrete decision taken by the yet-to-be-sworn-in government is to waste money – having to pay Steve Bracks a couple of years’ wages for nothing amidst suggestions that the New York consul general’s post will instead go to a Liberal Party worthy.

Is that right, the bit about the 2 years salary?

In any case, it's not a good sign of the Coalition swinging the axe for party political reasons.

More attention to reef needed

Coral will dissolve if CO2 emissions don't change

I think that, coming out as it did during an election campaign, this story about new and significant sounding research didn't attract much attention.

I did see it at the time, but forgot to come back to it.  I also thought to myself that Ove Hoegh-Guldberg has long been very pessimistic on everything he says about the reef, so maybe this press release is over-stating it too, but now that I read the detail about what they did, it seems I was wrong. Here's the abstract itself:

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO₂. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. 

But no, we were probably too distracted at the time it came out by the searing political story about how  Kevin Rudd failed to chat to a make up artist. 

Failed to rise

If there is but one small consolation out of the election, it's that it would seem to show that, even in Queensland, there might be limits on the nuttiness that people will vote for.

I forgot to post about him before the election, but unknowispeaksense had alerted us to a candidate in Capricornia for the "Rise Up Australia" party who had a particularly paranoid streak.  Quoting from a newpaper:

CAPRICORNIA’S newest federal candidate believes the United Nations contracted a private company to cause the floods in Central Queensland in 2010 and 2011.

Rise Up Australia Party’s Paul Lewis yesterday expressed concern his views might not get him elected....


The self-proclaimed born-again Christian said he had visited friends in the region over the past six years.  During his visits in the past three years he said it was obvious “weather manipulation” technology was being used.

He said aerial tankers bought by a private company from the US defence force were sub-contracted by the UN to spray chemicals on clouds over CQ in 2010, causing high levels of rainfall.

And remember who helped launch Rise Up Australia - none other than Christopher Monckton. 

"Rise Up" calls for a cut in the intake of Muslims, and (obviously) thinks climate change is a UN conspiracy, so should go over a treat with many of the commentators at Catallaxy, one would expect.

But as it turns out, Paul Lewis did not do so well - he got 379 votes according to the latest count.  Even for the Senate, where Rise Up did run, that's not enough.  I wonder, how did people recognize him so well as the nuttiest out of a good field of nutters?   Is the name "Rise Up Australia" just over some fine line that marks "obviously crazy"?

Speaking of Catallaxy, I noticed someone there yesterday in a thread claim that a policeman a couple of decades ago had told him that (this would be pre the Howard gun buy back) most murderous shootings in Australia were gay men killing other men in fights over lovers. (It's just that it's media silence that we never knew that, apparently.)   This sounds a wildly implausible claim, does it not?   But it came to mind when I noticed this today from Salon:

Last Saturday, the hosts of the Minnesota-based radio show “The Sons of Liberty,” Bradlee Dean and Jake McMillan, claimed that homosexuals are responsible for half of all murders committed in large cities. Where they would get such a wildly inaccurate notion, nobody knows. Facts or actual information seldom interfere with the dissemination of hatred.

Dean, who is founder and executive director of a nonprofit Christian youth organization, You Can Run But You Cannot Hide International (wow, doesn’t that Mad Max-inspired name make Christianity seem appealing?), said he was quoting a New York City judge named John Martagh. But, after just a little digging, the Huffington Post revealed the quote came from a 1992 newspaper column by an evangelical loony who never cited his statistical source, but is still quoted from time to time in anti-gay rhetoric. So this is just one of those lies that gets repeated enough it becomes a kind of truth for the liars.

Well, I had missed the "killer gays" meme back in the 1990's, but it good to see that it gets an airing at the ABC collective.  (You remember - the Australian, Bolt, Catallaxy.)

Dark energy and fat gravitons

Fat gravity particle gives clues to dark energy 

As explained at the link, one possible explanation of  dark energy would be if gravitons had a tiny, tiny mass.

(Is it just me, or does Nature News seem to be going a bit "New Scientist" in its reporting of some rather speculative theories?  Not that there's anything wrong with that.)

Another from the "Only in Japan" file

Can this cuddly mascot soften Japan prison image? | GulfNews.com

How does Japan help people feel better about a prison in the neighbourhood?  By making a mascot, of course:



Heh.

Storing energy works for solar, not so much for wind

Scientists calculate the energy required to store wind and solar power on the grid

A bit of a complicated study looking at the issue of storing energy from renewables.

It seems that with wind power, there is not much point in trying to store its energy when there is excess available, but that's not the case for solar.  

The real losers under an Abbott government...

...could well be the right wing schlock jocks who presumably have much less to get their dander up now that the world has been put to rights by a Coalition government.  (Sarcasm, of course.)

Even worse could be the fate of Michael Smith, who entertains himself and a clutch of wingnut types by playing amateur sleuth to what Julia Gillard did in her law office 20 years ago.  He'll probably spend the next 6 months trying to get the Abbott government to call a judicial enquiry into it; but if Abbott has any sense (yes, I know, a dubious proposition) he'll avoid the appearance of a vindictive witch hunt that no one sensible has reason to care about and reject the call.   Then, if  no police charges appear against Gillard (which is what I have always thought the likely outcome, given the shocking reputation of the main witness against her), what is Smith going to blog about?

For that matter, Andrew Bolt is going to have a harder time working himself into a frenzy, isn't he, when his favourite Labor targets are gone from the leadership and government?   I think I read somewhere that Insiders thrashed Bolt Report in the ratings in the election run up, but I can't find that story now.  Good to see that people know where to go for serious political coverage, anyway.

And the same general thing goes for all the radio right wing talk back.  Sure, the repeal or not of the carbon tax will keep them going for a while, but not for 3 years.

Odd but interesting

I wish the author hadn't given it a silly title, but this explanation of new (and previous) research on testosterone, testicle size and parenting (and male behaviour generally) makes for interesting reading.

Here's the quote

Lenore Taylor referred to this last night on Q&A, but I see that Michelle Grattan had already quoted it on line:

In all Abbott’s talk about the mandate he will have, it is worth noting his own view in other circumstances. He wrote after the Howard government’s 2007 defeat: “[Opposition leader Brendan] Nelson is right to resist the intellectual bullying inherent in talk of ‘mandates’. What exactly is Rudd’s mandate anyway: to be an economic conservative or an old-fashioned Christian socialist? The elected opposition is no less entitled than the elected government to exercise judgement and to try to keep its election commitments.”

Thanks for explaining that to us, Tony!

I trust the new Labor leader will quote that back at the government frequently with respect to carbon pricing.

The other matter which will make the debate interesting will be the IPCC report due out very soon.  It is expected to be strong, and should make the Labor and Green's position on carbon pricing appear more principled than ever.

If Labor had any sense, they would also be lining up economists to talk about how the "direct action" plan cannot plausibly reach its targets at the set cost Abbott has committed himself to.

I also note this from the LDP's website:  after a lot of dumb skeptic talk about how AGW isn't yet proved, it ends with:

Should the evidence become compelling that global warming is due to human activity, that such global warming is likely to have significantly negative consequences for human existence, and that changes in human activity could realistically reverse those consequences, the LDP would favour market-based options.

I doubt that a libertarian Senator will ever change on this - but if their website is to be believed, they may prefer carbon pricing to "direct action".

Nice graphic

Arctic sea ice delusions strike the Mail on Sunday and Telegraph | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | theguardian.com

The Arctic Sea Ice extent minimum, which is only a short time off, is going to be much higher than last year's record, but as noted in the above article:

As University of Reading climate scientist Ed Hawkins noted last year,

"Around 80% of the ~100 scientists at the Bjerknes [Arctic climate science] conference thought that there would be MORE Arctic sea-ice in 2013, compared to 2012."

The reason so many climate scientists predicted more ice this year than last is quite simple. There's a principle in statistics known as "regression toward the mean," which is the phenomenon that if an extreme value of a variable is observed, the next measurement will generally be less extreme. In other words, we should not often expect to observe records in consecutive years. 2012 shattered the previous record low sea ice extent; hence 'regression towards the mean' told us that 2013 would likely have a higher minimum extent.

And this is nicely illustrated by this lovely gif, which I don't think I have seen before:

Uncle Rupert's election thoughts

My imagined thoughts seem likely to be accurate, given the way he tweeted recently:

He must have really enjoyed the IPA dinner a couple of months ago.   No wonder The Australian has become the Official Journal of the IPA and its pet blog Catallaxy.

Not bad, Jack

I've been looking through some of the comments at John Quiggin's blog, and note that Jack Strocchi's seems pretty reasonable.  I'll extract two bits from it:

The sixth point to make is that there is a paradox at the heart of the AUS polity: the public appear to despise the Centre-Left’s psephologically whilst broadly agreeing with the Centre-Left ideologically. Thus the Centre-Left has been wiped out at both state and federal levels, yet there is no great public enthusiasm for austerity or Hewson “Fightback” program. This is demonstrated by Abbott’s Big Government me-tooism on the subjects of Gonski education, national disability and some kind of national broadband program. He is also reluctant to revisit industrial relations, a traditional favorite of the L/NP Right.  ...

The tenth and final point to make is that the ALP did not really deserve to lose this election. going by the its performance, politicians and policies. Its economic administration was competent, there were no appalling ministerial scandals (apart from leadership tussles which were finally settled), its headline policies were broadly popular. At some basic level the electorate has made a bad decision – especially given that revoking the carbon and mineral taxes will empower the oligarchy. I draw this conclusion reluctantly as I am a fervent populist. I can only hope that the electorate comes to their senses in due course. In the meantime the ALP must work overtime to make themselves fit for government, as they did after the 1975-77 disasters.

Everyone's a winner, baby*

I didn't see all of the election coverage last night:  we were having a meal at an Italian restaurant where the family next to us had a few kids who probably had a combined count of 5 vomits during their stay, with the last one being particularly spectacular.  (The youngest toddler would vomit, then cause the older kids to get sick in sympathy.  I felt sorry for the parents, but nonetheless was happy to see them leave...)

Anyhow, I was home in time to see the Rudd "victory in defeat" speech, which did go on a bit, to put it mildly; and caused tension by making Labor sympathizing viewers wonder if he was ever going to get around to saying he wouldn't lead the party in Opposition.

The Abbott speech was pretty lame, I thought, and the optics of  it most noteworthy for the way in which it seemed that election victory was finally deemed good enough reason for the jettison of his barnacle-like daughters.  (And yes, one was still dressed like Sporty Spice.  Odd.)  From the ABC coverage, the family started heading up the stairs to the stage to join him at the end, only to find he had already descended into the crowd.   Good on ya, Tone, way to keep a look out for what's going on with the family.   I assume the young guy who then gatecrashed the family together on stage happened later - it didn't appear on the ABC.

One good thing about this election result is that I don't think anyone can plausibly claim to be puzzled by it - there really should be a lot less of this journalistic guff about Party X having lost its way and having to have a 12 month period of navel gazing to work out what went wrong  (which happens now whenever Party X loses an election.)   We all know exactly what went wrong - basically, Kevin Rudd and the fractious internal politics of the last 4 years.

At about 34% of the primary vote, this is low for Labor, but who doesn't just mentally tack on the Greens to get a true picture of combined Left leaning vote?  At 8.5%, the Greens are no doubt suffering from the replacement of the cheerful Bob Brown with a woman who naturally looks and sounds perpetually unhappy.   But the combined 42.2% is not that far from the combined Coalition vote which looks like 45.3%. (As to where to position the Palmer vote - God knows.  I suspect it is just a generic protest vote against politics, and neither side can take much comfort from it.)

It was therefore hard to be depressed with the result, because there was the feeling that everyone could claim to be a winner, in one way or another:

#  There were enough seats in Western Sydney and Queensland saved for Rudd to plausibly argue he had helped the party after all.
#  Julia Gillard was gracious in the off stage support for Labor, and her "captain's pick" of Nova Peris worked out after all.
#  The Labor Party won by Kevin giving up the leadership.
#  Mad Clive gets to create what will probably be some wildly unpredictable and theatrical political stories for the next couple of years at least before he has some physical or mental breakdown.

And of course, Tony Abbott gets to hesitate his way on national TV as PM instead of mere Opposition Leader.   For the reasons I have been outlining for years, I don't expect he will do well, and he and his Party have faked their way into government.   We now get to see if my Peter Principle diagnosis of him gets to be confirmed from the loftier position of PM.  (Regardless of what the public thinks, it's already been confirmed to my satisfaction.)

As for my feeling on the Labor leadership - Bill Shorten performed well on his television appearances during the campaign, I thought.  Before that, over the last year or two, I felt he has often seemed too stressed and grumpy, but his professional and personal life has been unusually difficult over the same period.   I still think he is the most appealing of the possible candidates.

* families, particularly those on low income receiving top up superannuation and assistance with school expenses excepted, of course.  As well as those who rely on penalty rates, public servants in Canberra, companies that wanted to decide on long term electricity investments within the next 12 months, car manufacturers and their employees, genuine refugees hoping for family reunion, environmentalists, etc.   Apart from those, the future's looking fine and dandy.
 

Pre-election post election commentary

The polls certainly look bad for Labor.  Or should I say, for Kevin Rudd, given the almost presidential style of this campaign.

On the up side:  the broader Australian public have finally joined me in disdain for Rudd as a politician.  Took them long enough:  I was there in 2006.

On the downside:  seems a fair few people over 35 have started to sort of like Tony Abbott.  I refer to the age factor in this because it seems there is hardly an under 30 year old in the land who he doesn't creep out.  As with Rudd, I predict his popularity, even with the dag demographic, will be but a fleeting thing.  There is every reason to believe he will not keep spending promises, will have some trouble on the international stage (I don't expect him to go over a treat in Indonesia especially),  and even (I've been reading around) have some early ministerial scandals.   Some people have said we may be looking at something like the Fraser government after Whitlam, and there might be something in that, but I expect Abbott to be worse.

There is much speculation going on about how the Senate might pan out.  The arcane system there seems to make it impossible to predict these days.  Last night on the ABC there was talk that the balance of power might be with three odd bods:  the creepy Victorian Senator John Lithgow John Madigan; Bob Katter mate, country and western singer James Blundell, and Nick Xenophon.  (I don't really know what to make of Xenophon - he certainly came across as an unsually lonely character on his appearance on Kitchen Cabinet earlier this year.) 

What a worry.

I'm going to be voting below the line to try to ensure as limited accidental preferences as I can.

 

For those who want to go prepared

senate.io — Australian senate below the line ballot paper tool

This looks like a handy tool.  Instead of pondering for 20 minutes in the local school hall (if it's a nice one, it was probably built by Labor, by the way) whether to put the Legalise Marijuana Party above or below the Climate Idiots Party, you can work it all out at home and print out your personal "how to vote under the line" card.

Neat.