Record cold in perspective

This is why some record cold days in one part of the world does not prove the world is not warming:

One would think you could get the concept of the Eastern part of the North American continent not being "the world" into the head of an economist like Steve Kates, but it appears one can't.

Mr Kates and his RMIT pal Sinclair might also like to read this explanation of the matter of the warming Arctic being suspected of being behind the jet stream wobbles that help bring cold air temporarily down to parts of the US and Canada.  Jennifer Francis writes clearly on the matter, being one of its main proponents, if I recall correctly.

Lincoln and the Mediums - a great read

The Spiritualist Who Warned Lincoln Was Also Booth's Drinking Buddy | History | Smithsonian

A fascinating article here about the Lincolns and mediums they (well, mainly Mary) consulted.

You know, I often get the feeling that the influence of spiritualism in Western society over the century of 1850 to 1950 has been given short shrift in popular histories or movies.   As this article indicates, it was a very big movement that attracted a following from all parts of society, but people seem to know little about its early "success".

Uplifting

BBC - Culture - The bra: An uplifting tale

Here's a moderately interesting account of the history of the bra, and I extract this paragraph partly because I am immaturely amused by the name of the authority, but also because I have not read the term "breastbag" before:

 “Evolution sometimes takes a break,” argued Beatrix Nutz, an
archaeologist and researcher at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, in smithsonianmag.com.
“The Greek mathematician and geographer Eratosthenes (276 BC–195 BC)
knew our planet was a globe and even calculated its circumference, but
throughout the Middle Ages people believed it to be a flat disc. Bras
are certainly not even remotely as important as the actual shape of the
earth, but they were obviously invented, went out of fashion, were
forgotten, and supposed to be invented (again) in the late 19th
Century.” Nutz also cited two earlier written sources referencing what
could be perceived as early versions of the bra. “The French surgeon
Henri de Mondeville (1260-1320) reported what women whose breasts were
too large did. They ‘insert two bags in their dresses, adjusted to the
breasts, fitting tight, and put them into them every morning and fasten
them when possible with a matching band,’” she said, adding: “An unknown
German poet of the 15th Century wrote in his satirical poem, ‘Many make
two breastbags, with them she roams the streets, so that all the young
men that look at her, can see her beautiful breasts.”

 

Roof walking

As I have mentioned over the years, our house has regular visits by possums and (unfortunately) rats:  the latter always start turning up in the ceiling in autumn when the summer oven like temperatures in the roof space start cooling.   We hear them, I go up into the ceiling and lay baits and look for dead bodies.  (Fortunately, they mostly seem to die elsewhere.) 

As for possums - they are not infrequently seen on the balcony rail, or heard scurrying along the lower part of the roof (which, conveniently for them, comes close to a very large tree in which you can also hear them rustling at night.)

In the morning, sometimes we have had birds hopping on the roof, too.

So I've heard animals on or in the roof, a lot.

But lately, including early this morning, there is something on the roof which makes a sound which is oddly like footsteps.  It does not have a scurrying quality at all, it sounds like the slowish thump, thump, thump of a person walking carefully on a roof.

I mentioned it at lunch, and my daughter says she has heard it in the evening.  I've only heard it later at night, or very early in the morning.

I'm a bit puzzled about what Australian  animal can make a roof noise like that.  Googling the topic I see from this handy American guide to things in the attic that raccoons can make a walking sound.
The things is, based on past experience, I am a bit skeptical that possums, even large ones, move in such a way that they can sound like footsteps.   Can't see what else it could be, though.  A very large  cat is not out of the question, I suppose, but we will have to see.

The incident has put me a bit in mind of the "devil's footprints" story from 19th century Devon, minus the snow, of course.     I can imagine people in, say, the midst of a witch panic, being wound up over the sounds of (what they think is) footsteps on a roof.

The Australian ramping up the attack

Every person interested in politics will be reading The Australian's lengthy, detailed, leak filled report on the totally dysfunctional Prime Minister's office under Abbott/Credlin, served with a side of "how nuts is Abbott anyway, for wanting to unilaterally deploy thousands of Australia troops to Iraq again?"

Interestingly, it says Abbott can't sack Hockey because Hockey will retaliate with damaging payback (in that he won't wear all the blame for a crook budget.)

And in comments following the article, the usual bunch of ideologues who say "replace Abbott with Turnbull and I'll never vote Liberal again."

As I said before - this is a crisis for the Coalition because it is split about 50/50 on the matter of belief in the reality of AGW and climate change; not a matter of mere personalities as it was with Labor.

Astronaut stuff

Neil Armstrong’s closet: What I found when I went through the belongings of the astronaut in my family.

Just a bit of interesting stuff here about what it's like to know an ex-astronaut.

Incidentally, I will probably always remember the names of the Apollo 12 astronauts (Conrad, Gordon, Bean) because my sister  at the time was living in the US and sent me a mission patch which she got from somewhere or other.  (Actually, she was probably living in Alabama at the time.)  I had it sewn onto a shirt or jacket, I forget which.

I think I have mentioned before that I spotted Apollo 11's Michael Collins in the bookshop of the Air and Space Museum in Washington when he used to run it.  I also saw Andy Thomas give a talk once.

Thus ends my list of proximity to astronauts. 

Daytime cyclones?

With the news this morning of quite an intense cyclone soon to hit the Queensland coast, it has occurred to me that it seems much more common that cyclones in Australia come ashore at night, rather than during daytime.   I wonder if I am right, or if it is just the lingering impression of Cyclone Tracey and Darwin?

Tim fails

Human Rights Commissioner offers no defence of Gillian Triggs over Forgotten Children report - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I had a read of Tim "Freedom Boy" Wilson's speech to the Press Club yesterday (which he personally tweeted was "a cracker" - the number of selfies is not the only reason to believe he has high self regard), and thought it was full of his usual light weight, platitudinous waffle.

Funny how a gay right wing mouthpiece for "property rights" and free speech can try to turn a Human Rights job into one that's about gays, property rights and free speech.   Oh, and the kids in indefinite detention: "yeah, well it shouldn't happen; but let me talk about s 18C again and how inhibiting it is for Andrew Bolt".

I have noticed some people on the net saying the talk was not well attended (and I had figured that there must have been low interest from the number of times I saw him reminding people that it was on in the last week or two).   Sorry, Timbo, it's like, they're just not that into you.

The amount of bravery he showed by not wanting to comment on the fact that the politician who appointed him was now wanting to remove his boss for blatantly political reasons was on the low to non-existent end of the scale of possible responses.  I think he made the point that she can't be sacked unless Parliament changes the law - true, but not exactly the point.  Still, I suppose it is hard for a blatant political appointment to make comments about other blatant political interference, isn't it Tim?

Funnily enough, I also see that this photo of Tim in action is on the innerwebs:

Gee, how did the photographer get that shot?  "Tim, Tim:  now if you could pose like a self-satisfied, smug git... Great, ta."  (OK, maybe its just a screenshot.)

There, my Wilson hate is sated for another day...

Update:  is that right?  Sinclair Davidson says that if Triggs resigned, Freedom Boy would be the acting President of the HRC.

So sounds like Brandis really did want his direct appointee to be head of the Commission?   Maybe it would only be temporary, but still, this is a bad look for cronyism.   If anything, that is all the more reason for journalists to ask Wilson for his views on this tawdry affair.

Update 2:  oh for crying out loud - Timbo presumably approves this HRC post today (just extracting part of his underwhelming speech) which is  plastered at the top with his beaming mug. 





I'm guessing he has to clean his shaving mirror regularly - all of those smugly lip prints that he leaves on it every morning make it hard to see clearly.

Fish wars

Climate change redistributes fish species at high latitudes

I hadn't heard of this before (the bit about the Suez Canal causing big changes to Mediterranean fish species):

Redistribution of species and interchange will cause a tremendous increase in fish
biodiversity in coastal areas around e.g. Greenland and Svalbard, and
thus dramatic changes to interactions between species.

History has shown that such biotic interchange can result in severe ecological consequences. For example, the construction of the Suez Canal in 1869 resulted in the invasion of the Mediterranean Sea by Red Sea marine fauna. The Mediterranean fish community is now dominated by Red Sea fishes, and this has had harmful ecological and economic consequences for Mediterranean biodiversity and its fishing industry.

Not exactly on the feminist wavelength

In Bid to Allow Guns on Campus, Weapons Are Linked to Fighting Sexual Assault - NYTimes.com

Somehow, I don't think this female gun nut politician is quite on the same wavelength as feminists:

The sponsor of a bill in Nevada, Assemblywoman Michele Fiore,
said in a telephone interview: “If these young, hot little girls on
campus have a firearm, I wonder how many men will want to assault them.
The sexual assaults that are occurring would go down once these sexual
predators get a bullet in their head.”

Given that I would bet my last dollar that "hot little girl" sized cans of mace are already available in every state these gun fetishists are pushing for these laws, I wonder why these idiots think that it wouldn't work during a college rape, whereas a gun would?

Monkeys banned from actorly activity

Anger at bid to fly monkeys to Australia for Pirates of the Caribbean film | World news | The Guardian

Animal rights activists object to a couple of pampered monkey actors being flown over to Australia for a movie.  Funny that millions of cats and dogs aren't rendered insane by aircraft flights, and one would also assume that these monkeys have travelled that way before.   I think animal rights activists are starting to have trouble finding things to object to...

But what is this about?:

The Department of Environment has proposed conditions on the import
permit, stipulating that the monkeys be used only for filming, that they
should not be allowed to have sex with each other or have contact with
monkeys of any species.

Now that's cruel.  

Uneven temperatures

This seems to be happening each year now:  while parts of the US are having some record cold temperatures this winter, other parts (this time, the West coast - I should check how Alaska is faring too) are having record warmth:

SEATTLE — Flowers are blossoming. Bees are buzzing. The sky is blue. Sunsets have been stunning. Temperatures have crept north of 60 degrees, and joggers are going shirtless.
This isn’t a typical February in the Pacific Northwest.
While the Northeast is buried under snow, the opposite corner of the country has been hosting the opposite of the winter weather spectrum. The Northwest has had a record-breaking winter, but for warm temperatures.
On Monday, record highs hit parts of Washington and Oregon as one of the mildest winters continues in the Northwest.
The National Weather Service reported record highs of 59 at Sea-Tac Airport, 60 at Olympia, 62 at Hoquiam, 62 at Vancouver, 61 in Portland, 62 at Hillsboro, Ore., and 66 at Salem, Ore.

Oh, and as for Alaska - yes, this article from the end of January suggests it was a relatively mild winter, at least up to then.

This all perhaps suggests why the average global temperature for January was not low at all:

George Will writes a sensible column

Curb your pessimism - The Washington Post

Quite a shock, this is...

News media is such a sucker for PR

I am rather puzzled by the fact that the news media keeps treating Mars One stories seriously.  Last night, it was about a first selection of 100 potential astronauts willing to go live in a can on a cold, airless red planet until they die within a few months.   (Well,that's the estimate I have seen somewhere.)

I have never taken this project seriously:  without even bothering to read up on it in any great detail, anyone could tell that the proposed timing of the mission and funding sounded fanciful in the extreme.   It always sounded like a PR hack's fantasy that had everything going for it  except the following:  the money, the rockets, the capsules, the spacesuits, the habitat, the long term life support system, the credibility.

It is simply a marketing exercise which, if anything, is about attracting smart people who are into playing pretends.   They apparently have done pretty well in that regard;  but that is where the story will end.

See here for a lengthy, critical article about the project.

The other reason I wanted to post about it is because at my daughter's school, where I had to go the other night, there were at least a couple of Mars One posters in classrooms.  It may be that one of the teachers applied - I think that seemed to be the story circulating.   Bit of a pity the school is pretending it's real too - I would rather they spent time using it an example of media manipulation or the scientific difficulties in long distance space flight.   Maybe there is hope for that yet...

IPA twerp joins in Triggs attack

Triggs criticism well-deserved | FreedomWatch

I am amused by Simon Breheny's final paragraph:

The content and timing of The Forgotten Children report is
merely a symptom of a much more serious disease – the agenda of the
Australian Human Rights Commission has been distorted by an unrelenting
bias against individual liberty.

The Australian Human Rights Commission is beyond salvation. The
Abbott government was right to criticise the commission and it should
now move to abolish the commission in favour of civil society
organisations that actually defend our human rights.

I wonder what "civil society organisations" he refers to.  The IPA?   lol

Update on droughts

The New York Times has an update on the Brazilian drought:

As southeast Brazil grapples with its worst drought in nearly a century, a problem worsened by polluted rivers, deforestation and population growth, the largest reservoir system serving São Paulo is near depletion. Many residents are already enduring sporadic water cutoffs, some going days without it. Officials say that drastic rationing may be needed, with water service provided only two days a week.

Behind closed doors, the views are grimmer. In a meeting recorded secretly and leaked to the local news media, Paulo Massato, a senior official at São Paulo’s water utility, said that residents might have to be warned to flee because “there’s not enough water, there won’t be water to bathe, to clean” homes.

“We’re witnessing an unprecedented water crisis in one of the world’s great industrial cities,” said Marússia Whately, a water specialist at Instituto Socioambiental, a Brazilian environmental group. “Because of environmental degradation and political cowardice, millions of people in São Paulo are now wondering when the water will run out.”

For some in this traffic-choked megacity of futuristic skyscrapers, gated communities and sprawling slums, the slow-burning crisis has already meant no running water for days on end.

“Imagine going three days without any water and trying to run a business in a basic sanitary way,” said Maria da Fátima Ribeiro, 51, who owns a bar in Parque Alexandra, a gritty neighborhood on the edge of São Paulo’s metropolitan area. “This is Brazil, where human beings are treated worse than dogs by our own politicians.”

 In other drought news, there has been much publicity given to a study that says climate change is very likely to lead to multi-decadal megadroughts across a huge slab of America.   (The country has actually suffered severe droughts in the mid West in the middle ages, but with higher temperatures the equivalent drought would only be worse.)

I wonder how the economists can factor in 30 - 40 years of agriculture destroying drought in America in the second half of the century to their estimates of GDP harm under climate change?

Changing Asia

I was catching up on the (always good) Interpreter blog and noticed that the biggest gay dating app is now apparently one based in China.  If Chinese society develops high tolerance for gay relationships, it will be quite a global change.   (I always suspected that the government and parent induced gender imbalance in China would likely contribute to changing attitudes to other-than-traditional relationships.  May be happening faster than previously envisaged.) 

Update:   just out of interest, here is a section from a 2006 paper talking about the possible effects of gender imbalances of the type in China and India:

There is also evidence that, when single young men congregate, the potential for more organized aggression is likely to increase substantially (45, 53). Hudson and Den Boer, in their provocative writings on this subject (45, 46), go further, predicting that these men are likely to be attracted to military or military-type organizations, with the potential to be a trigger for large-scale domestic and international violence. With 40% of the world's population living in China and India, the authors argue that the sex imbalance could impact regional and global security, especially because the surrounding countries of Pakistan, Taiwan, Nepal, and Bangladesh also have high sex ratios. 

A number of other consequences of an excess of men have been described, but there is very little evidence for causation. It is intuitive that if sexual needs are to be met this will lead to a large expansion of the sex industry, including its more unacceptable practices such as coercion and trafficking. The sex industry has expanded in both India and China in the last decade (55, 56); however, there are a number of reasons for this expansion, and the part played by a high sex ratio is impossible to isolate without specific research addressing this question. Indeed, in China the highest numbers of sex workers are in areas where the sex ratio is least distorted, for example in the border areas of Yunnan Province (57). The recent rise in numbers of sex workers in China has been attributed more to greater mobility, increased socioeconomic inequality, and a relaxation in sexual attitudes, than to an increase in the sex ratio (57, 58). 

There is much anecdotal evidence regarding increases in trafficking of women, both for the sex industry and marriage, in both India and China (59, 60), although it is impossible to say whether gender imbalance is a contributory factor in this rise. Reports would suggest that trafficking is more common in parts of Africa and Eastern Europe where the sex ratio is normal (61). It has also been suggested that a shortage of women may lead to a rise in homosexual behavior (31), not implying that the shortage of women will produce homosexuals, but rather that an increasing tolerance toward homosexuality, together with the surplus of males, may lead to large numbers of covert homosexuals openly expressing their sexuality.

Another backyard scene

Just taken now, I believe they are corellas:

They've been visiting a lot lately.

He's just showing off now...

Overwintering, again

How to Survive Winter in Antarctica - The Atlantic

There's not too much new in this article about the staff at the US South Pole station who stay 9 months over winter - all 50 of them.  Some corrections appear in comments, too.   I did like a couple of other points in comments:

During my winter-over at Pole 6 out of 47 Polies were women. Women in
Antarctica have a saying: "The odds are good, but the goods are odd." :)

I have to laugh when people talk about living on Mars. We can barely
live on Antarctica with water, oxygen and a plane flight away!

Thanks for coming in, Malcolm..

I agree with Michelle Grattan (as does every other sensible person in the country):  Malcolm Turnbull's job application interview last night went pretty well.

Andrew Bolt is spitting chips, of course. Tim Blair hates him too, and sees something that I can't say is all that obvious except to Tim. 

This is all about da climate change:  that is all it is about.