Tuesday, December 13, 2016
The Republicans and Russia
There's a very clear and understandable account by Peter Beinart at The Atlantic on how the Republicans came to be split on the matter of Russia. How Trump and his pals react to the Republicans in the Senate who have approved an enquiry into Russian interference in the election will be interesting to watch.
Monday, December 12, 2016
Heisenberg and the Bomb
Quite a good discussion here of the question of why Germany did not get far in its development of an atomic bomb in World War 2. In particular, did Heisenberg and his German physicist buddies deliberately prevent it by telling Speer that (to paraphrase), sure, they'd love to do it, but it's just too big a job for Germany. (Mind you, considering the incredible scale of the Manhattan Project, perhaps this was no great stretch of the truth at the time.)
English school horrors - girls' own version
From an otherwise not very interesting TLS review of a book about life in girls' boarding schools in the mid 20th century (I don't exactly expect it to fly off the shelf), I was amused by this particular paragraph:
The louche prize, however, goes to Caroline (Lady) Cranbrook’s 1940s memories of a place called Wings: a grand house, and a drunken headmistress with a fag and crème de menthe ever at hand, encouraging the school sport of rugby (“Jump on me, girls, jump on me!”). She made them dance with her armless, First World War veteran father, whose stumps without prostheses they had to cling to. Biology in the old kitchen involved dissecting an aborted foal. So many teachers left that Cranbrook at fifteen taught two subjects herself and put the five-year-old boarders to bed. When inspectors came she was given make-up so that they would think she was a teacher. Eventually, with difficulty, she smuggled out a letter “betraying” the school. After Wings closed, rumours spread – one had the headmistress knocking out a girl’s tooth in assembly “because she didn’t like the way she was looking at her”.
The similarities are clear
Somethings are very obvious about the current state of the conservative/culture warrior Right when it gets government in Australia or the US:
* they love surrounding themselves with the military. I complained constantly about Tony Abbott and his ministers doing this, and now, of course, we see Trump actually embedding the recently retired/sacked military into key positions in government. Funnily enough, both Abbott and Trump are a conservative's idea of "men's men", yet neither have performed any military service at all. A bit of psychological over-compensation going on, perhaps? Or just a love of appearing "tough" by surrounding themselves with professional fighters.
* Their prime rule of thumb for accepting advice: "if it's inconvenient, don't believe it: ignore it." Look, Trump's been upset for 30 odd years that his hairspray changed in response to scientific advice (fully confirmed, of course) that different propellants were needed for the benefit of the ozone layer. He still can't accept that this was correct advice. (Yes, there is actually a fact check devoted to a 30 year hunch that his hairspray couldn't possibly affect the ozone layer.)
If this fact alone doesn't give you cause to worry about the judgement of the President elect, there's something wrong with your own judgement.
Trump has just re-affirmed that he can't, of course, accept that climate change is real. No one believes that Tony Abbott was ever convinced either.
When it comes to economics, I see that the Turnbull government is carrying on the same Abbott initiated political re-alignment of Treasury to get the advice it wants.
As for energy policy, they choose to doubt the chief scientist rather than deal with the issue in detail.
It is a great worry...
* they love surrounding themselves with the military. I complained constantly about Tony Abbott and his ministers doing this, and now, of course, we see Trump actually embedding the recently retired/sacked military into key positions in government. Funnily enough, both Abbott and Trump are a conservative's idea of "men's men", yet neither have performed any military service at all. A bit of psychological over-compensation going on, perhaps? Or just a love of appearing "tough" by surrounding themselves with professional fighters.
* Their prime rule of thumb for accepting advice: "if it's inconvenient, don't believe it: ignore it." Look, Trump's been upset for 30 odd years that his hairspray changed in response to scientific advice (fully confirmed, of course) that different propellants were needed for the benefit of the ozone layer. He still can't accept that this was correct advice. (Yes, there is actually a fact check devoted to a 30 year hunch that his hairspray couldn't possibly affect the ozone layer.)
If this fact alone doesn't give you cause to worry about the judgement of the President elect, there's something wrong with your own judgement.
Trump has just re-affirmed that he can't, of course, accept that climate change is real. No one believes that Tony Abbott was ever convinced either.
When it comes to economics, I see that the Turnbull government is carrying on the same Abbott initiated political re-alignment of Treasury to get the advice it wants.
As for energy policy, they choose to doubt the chief scientist rather than deal with the issue in detail.
It is a great worry...
Sunday, December 11, 2016
Vaping taken seriously
I had no idea that, in America at least, vaping nicotine "E-cigarettes" had become so popular with the young:
What with the young brains of American growing up in a country where both marijuana and nicotine are sold, and promoted in capitalist fashion, I don't think this augurs well for the future of the country socially or economically.
The report released Thursday by the U.S. surgeon general focuses on Americans under the age of 25, the cohort that has embraced e-cigarettes with the most enthusiasm. Teens and young adults are more likely to be using the vaping devices than people in any other age group. Indeed, among middle and high school students, e-cigarettes have become more popular than traditional cigarettes.
These trends are alarming to public health officials for several reasons. Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has been warning for years that e-cigarettes have the potential to get kids hooked on nicotine, paving the way for them to “graduate” to regular smoking and setting themselves up for a lifetime of addiction. About 90% of adult smokers say they started smoking as teens.
Plus, mounting scientific evidence suggests the adolescent brain is uniquely vulnerable to the harmful effects of nicotine. Among other problems, nicotine exposure can lead to “reduced impulse control, deficits in attention and cognition, and mood disorders,” Dr. Vivek Murthy, the surgeon general, wrote in a preface to the report.And as for that age bracket using them to quite smoking actual cigarettes - seems not to be the case:
Among young adults 18 to 25, 55% of electronic cigarette users also smoke regular cigarettes, according to CDC data from 2013 and 2014. Although older smokers often use e-cigarettes to help them kick the habit, this is not a common practice for young adults, the report says.Some heavy regulation, at the very least, would be well deserved.
What with the young brains of American growing up in a country where both marijuana and nicotine are sold, and promoted in capitalist fashion, I don't think this augurs well for the future of the country socially or economically.
The unreality bubble
Bill Maher said back on October 16 something which had been pretty obvious for a long time:
Anyway, back to the objective evidence that Maher is absolutely correct. Talking about a recent survey, Rachel Maddow went through the details:
Maher said Trump voters live in "a reality of their own choosing."
"It's not even a race between ideologies anymore. It's not Republican and Democrat or conservative and liberal. It's reality versus alternative reality," he said.
It's this mindset that leads to unerring loyalty, Maher said, despite what he called Trump's predilection for "bold-faced, caught-on-tape lying."
Hence, Russian involvement in aiding his election either won't be believed by them, or even if believed, won't matter. Because the culture warrior conservative Right currently has the hots for "strongman" quasi-dictatorial government, and an enormous crush on Putin. (Seems their reasoning is a combination of "he knows what he wants and he gets his way; America used to be like that*", and "he don't put up with any nonsense from gays".)"They don't care. They know, or they don't know, it doesn't matter to them. He's their guy," Maher said.
Anyway, back to the objective evidence that Maher is absolutely correct. Talking about a recent survey, Rachel Maddow went through the details:
Rachel started the segment by pointing out that President Obama's overall approval rating is at 50%. However, while his favorability with Republicans is 9%, it is only 5% of Trump voters.
Rachel then pivoted to issue after issue where a large percentage of Trump voters were severely misinformed. They live in a virtually fact-free or made-up-fact environment.
The stock market under President Obama soared. The Dow Jones Industrial average went from 7,949.09 to 19,614.91, again, up 11,665.72. In other words, it more than doubled. 39% of Trump voters think the stock market went down under Obama.
Unemployment dropped from 7.8% to 4.6% during the Obama administration. Clinton, Johnson, Stein and other voters are well aware of that fact.
But not Donald Trump voters; 67% of them believe unemployment rose under President Obama.
Rachel continued.
Rachel's statement near the end of the segment was prescient.
- 40% of Trump voters believe that Donald Trump won the popular vote.
- 60% of Trump voters believe that millions voted illegally for Clinton.
- 73% of Trump voters believe that George Soros paid Trump protesters.
- 29% of Trump voters believe California vote should not be included in the popular vote.
"I think it shows that even after the election, what Trump voters believe about the world is distinctively different from what the rest of the country believe," Rachel said. "And from what is true. And this is an alternate reality that they are in, -- it is weird enough and specific enough that you can't say it just springs from broader a misunderstandings or from a broader ignorance on issues that afflicts the country. And this is a specific alternate reality that was created by the Trump movement for a political purpose. And it worked for that political purpose. And now as the Trump administration takes shape, they have to know that they are in power thanks to their voter base that has these false beliefs about the country. False beliefs about the country, false beliefs about the economy, false beliefs about the outgoing president, false beliefs about what California is. In terms of what happens next in our country, it seems important to know this incoming president basically created this fantasy life for his supporters."* when actually, the runs on the board for "getting its way" have been decidedly mixed since 1945.
Saturday, December 10, 2016
Summing up 2016
I don't even like using the key word here*, but if it's to be taken as a wry way of summing up how so many of us feel about 2016 (and I think it is), this New Yorker cartoon is pretty funny:
* not that I think it's too crude, especially; but it falls into the category of words I just don't like the sound of, for unclear reasons - lesbian is another one.
* not that I think it's too crude, especially; but it falls into the category of words I just don't like the sound of, for unclear reasons - lesbian is another one.
Violence in (English) history
There are many remarkable things to note from this great TLS review of a book by one James Sharpe about violence in England. For example:
Wait - "Fulk Nermit"? What an odd name. Anyway, back to the story:
He refers to a study of the court records of five counties and two cities (London and Bristol) for the period 1201–76, for example, which has produced a homicide rate of 20 per 100,000 population. The equivalent figure today is 1.15 per 100,000. On this reckoning, the southern counties of medieval England were more dangerous than Mexico today – and four times as dangerous as the United States.
One of the many virtues of Sharpe’s book is that he doesn’t leave it there. He looks into the likely victims of England’s murdering classes, which turns up another contrast with modernity (the murder rate dropped to about its present level around 200 years ago). This is that you were much more likely to be killed by a stranger in medieval England than by someone you knew, including a member of your own family. In fact, Sharpe quotes the results of research showing that “murders within the family occurred at about the same level as they do today in the UK and USA”. Perhaps the most dangerous place to bump into a stranger was Oxford. Going to university in the fourteenth century sounds like undertaking a tour of duty in a particularly hot war zone. In the 1340s, the homicide rate was apparently up around 120 – higher than Caracas or San Pedro, Honduras, currently the two most violent cities in the world not officially at war.
....Oxford was just a very volatile place, where around 6,000 inhabitants, among them about 1,500 undergraduates, didn’t get along very well. An armed population didn’t help either. Most men seem to have carried knives, with stabbing the cause of the majority of deaths. But as well as being much, much more violent than today’s Oxonians, the medieval version made use of the sort of weapons that few citizens keep now. Sharpe describes a riot in the High Street in 1298, where students and university servants fought. Edward of Hales, a shopkeeper, went to an upstairs window of his premises and shot an arrow into the crowd, fatally wounding a student, Fulk Nermit.
Wait - "Fulk Nermit"? What an odd name. Anyway, back to the story:
Students themselves appear to have discovered new ways to fight each other, dividing “along geographical lines” between North and South Oxford. Having no affiliation, however, was no guarantee of safety. Sharpe mentions one student who was killed when he stepped into the street – and into the middle of a brawl – “to pass water at the wrong moment”.The "popularity" of infanticide gets attention, too, in the Tudor to the Victorian period:
These centuries were clearly the high tide of the crime of infanticide, when rigid public morality over illegitimacy combined with a lack of contraception to make it an all too common last resort for some women. The absence of fathers from the stories Sharpe tells is in itself instructive: by allowing the mothers to bear illegitimately, they avoided culpability only in a technical sense. The result was that, even towards the end of this period, “young children were the most vulnerable of all groups in Victorian England”, with 20 per cent of victims of homicide being aged under twelve months.There's lots more of interest. Go read it.
A good quote for the Christmas season
From the TLS:
....the fact that wine can bring great pleasure – and that it can cultivate a sense of community – has been something of a theme in Western philosophy. Plato argued that those over forty should get drunk “to renew their youth, and that, through forgetfulness of care, the temper of their souls may lose its hardness and become softer and more ductile”. Kant thought that when drunk “we forget and overlook the weaknesses of others . . . people who are otherwise hard-hearted become, through intoxication, good-humoured, communicative and benign”.For those who want to read a little bit more about Kant on drinking, you can read a short .pdf from a 1941 journal here.
Friday, December 09, 2016
Seriously?
Spotted on Twitter:
And guess which one it is whose newspapers run grossly oversimplified Right wing beat up stories about there being too many "leaners" when it comes to tax paid versus benefits received......
George Megalogenis
A tale of two media empires:
Fairfax pays 25.4% tax on taxable income of $91,856,465
News pays 0% tax on taxable income of $70,847,581
And guess which one it is whose newspapers run grossly oversimplified Right wing beat up stories about there being too many "leaners" when it comes to tax paid versus benefits received......
Yeah, I give up..Malcolm Turnbull is a coward
I've avoided commenting on the obvious disappointment of the performance of Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister.
But yes, I think this week it has reached the point where I have to admit it: he is a complete coward; a captive of the backwards looking, science denying, American poisonous-Right influenced, "conservative" wing of the Party. Unwilling to call them out, and talking the same opportunistic political lines that Tony Abbott took regarding energy policy, rather than trying to convince the public of what past experience shows he almost certainly believes in his heart, he's showing himself up as the worst type of bluffing, insincere, politician who gives a bad name to politics.
And, of course, his evident lack of sincerity fails to convince the Conservative voters he seeks to placate, as well.
There is no future for the Coalition while it has this internal conflict, and Malcolm has proved himself incapable of taking his party with him. "Sad", as someone would tweet....
But yes, I think this week it has reached the point where I have to admit it: he is a complete coward; a captive of the backwards looking, science denying, American poisonous-Right influenced, "conservative" wing of the Party. Unwilling to call them out, and talking the same opportunistic political lines that Tony Abbott took regarding energy policy, rather than trying to convince the public of what past experience shows he almost certainly believes in his heart, he's showing himself up as the worst type of bluffing, insincere, politician who gives a bad name to politics.
And, of course, his evident lack of sincerity fails to convince the Conservative voters he seeks to placate, as well.
There is no future for the Coalition while it has this internal conflict, and Malcolm has proved himself incapable of taking his party with him. "Sad", as someone would tweet....
A tax I hadn't heard of...
Beachcomber has a short post about a 19th century rumour, at least amongst the poor in one area, it seems, that Queen Victoria was about to order all children under 5 to be put to death, due to "scarcity of provisions." He writes:
Scarcity of provisions was a factor even in the 19C in England: and Ireland was, in 1847, about to begin the most brutal experience in its history because of a lack of food. But where on earth would the rumour come from that Queen Victoria was going to get all King Herod on her subjects? Leaving aside the fact that 19C Britain would not have tolerated this and that Parliament not the Queen would have made this kind of a decision, the rumour is reminiscent, in a way, of some medieval gossip that give the state or the ‘crown’ exaggerated powers and interests in the private life of the peasantry. The classic example is the longstanding conviction among the French and some German peasants that the royal authorities wanted to tax sexual relations between men and women, including between husband and wife. This conviction and piffling ‘proofs’ led to periodic continental riots and rebellions.
Fair enough
Priests ‘should learn about climate change as part of their formation’
This should be upsetting to the Latin mass loving conservative Catholic clique, but one of the peculiar things about them is how Pope Benedict XVI, who they generally are quite fond of, was pretty much completely on side with climate change as a serious problem. (Oh, that's right, the very silly man from the 50's, CL, used to cite some comment where Benedict mentioned abortion in the context of the "human environment", so as to argue that you didn't have to worry about climate change until you stopped all abortion. Conservative Catholics can't walk and chew gum at the same time, you see.)
This should be upsetting to the Latin mass loving conservative Catholic clique, but one of the peculiar things about them is how Pope Benedict XVI, who they generally are quite fond of, was pretty much completely on side with climate change as a serious problem. (Oh, that's right, the very silly man from the 50's, CL, used to cite some comment where Benedict mentioned abortion in the context of the "human environment", so as to argue that you didn't have to worry about climate change until you stopped all abortion. Conservative Catholics can't walk and chew gum at the same time, you see.)
Thursday, December 08, 2016
Horrible scenes from the Philippines
I don't know that I should link to this, really - too many of the photos (which, in terms of photographic quality, are so good they look like they are from a movie) are appalling and quite upsetting.
But I think the terrible actions of a "strong man" leader, democratically elected, are something that should be given publicity given the situation in America at the moment...
But I think the terrible actions of a "strong man" leader, democratically elected, are something that should be given publicity given the situation in America at the moment...
The American paranoia/conspiracy sickness
Of course, with a President elect who has traded in this stuff, don't expect it to get much better any time soon...
Pizzerias in Austin and New York Are Now Also Being Accused of Abetting Satanic Pedophilia
Sandy Hook Truther Arrested for Threatening to Kill Parent of Murdered Child
Trump Supporters Cheer Alleged PizzaGate Gunman
Should we take some comfort from the fact that Trump sacked his adviser's son for promoting this stuff? Not much, when his Dad played up to it on Twitter as well (from my first link):
Pizzerias in Austin and New York Are Now Also Being Accused of Abetting Satanic Pedophilia
Sandy Hook Truther Arrested for Threatening to Kill Parent of Murdered Child
Trump Supporters Cheer Alleged PizzaGate Gunman
Should we take some comfort from the fact that Trump sacked his adviser's son for promoting this stuff? Not much, when his Dad played up to it on Twitter as well (from my first link):
Michael G. Flynn, the son of Donald Trump's soon-to-be national security adviser, was reportedly removed from Trump's transition team Tuesday for having circulated Pizzagate tweets. But Flynn's father—Michael T. Flynn—has also promoted fake Hillary Clinton sex-abuse stories:
U decide - NYPD Blows Whistle on New Hillary Emails: Money Laundering, Sex Crimes w Children, etc...MUST READ! truepundit.com/breaking-bombs…
The elder Flynn nonetheless continues to retain his position in Trump's inner circle.
Wednesday, December 07, 2016
Something's up
Just when the Pizzagate conspiracy was about to be blown wide open, I see that Australia's home for Pizzagate dissemination - Catallaxy - has been shut down by a lenghty Ozblogistan fault - allegedly.
I expect the Black helicopters are hovering over a few Catellaxians' houses right now. I do not expect to ever hear fromUSSR SRR again.
If only they could take out the IPA while they're at it, I'd be quite happy.
I expect the Black helicopters are hovering over a few Catellaxians' houses right now. I do not expect to ever hear from
If only they could take out the IPA while they're at it, I'd be quite happy.
Inaccurate, of course
The WAPO fact checks Trump's upset at the cost of getting replacement Air Force Ones.
As they say, he doesn't know what he doesn't know.
As they say, he doesn't know what he doesn't know.
An honest economist
I like the way that Krugman sometimes makes it very clear that he, and other economists, don't really know exactly what is going on, or what policy prescriptions would work to fix a perceived problem. It's a lot more honest than the "our problem? it's Keynes, Keynes! I tell you!" line from certain other economists...
Brisbane needs a nap
Brisbane's lack of daylight saving means that it's hard enough to sleep in beyond about 5 am in summer anyway, what with bright sun and noisy morning birds. (With sunrise at 4.45, the sky starts to brighten well before 4.30, and hence some birds start up that early too.)
This sleep depriving system has been compounded by night time storms the last couple of nights. Yesterday morning, the clouds meant it wasn't so light at 4.30, but the thunder woke everyone up anyway. Last night, the storm came in around 1am and hung around til about 2.30, I think. Actually, the thunder was not as loud where I live as in other parts of Brisbane (if Twitter is any guide, it was very bad nearer the inner city), but it was persistent and loud enough to prevent sleep.
This morning it is very steamy, and I bet another storm disruptive day or night is on its way.
If you are dealing with anyone in Brisbane today, just be aware they are probably sleep deprived...
This sleep depriving system has been compounded by night time storms the last couple of nights. Yesterday morning, the clouds meant it wasn't so light at 4.30, but the thunder woke everyone up anyway. Last night, the storm came in around 1am and hung around til about 2.30, I think. Actually, the thunder was not as loud where I live as in other parts of Brisbane (if Twitter is any guide, it was very bad nearer the inner city), but it was persistent and loud enough to prevent sleep.
This morning it is very steamy, and I bet another storm disruptive day or night is on its way.
If you are dealing with anyone in Brisbane today, just be aware they are probably sleep deprived...
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