Thursday, April 23, 2020
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
Parisian poo points the way forward
I refer to this, from Science:
By sampling sewage across greater Paris for more than 1 month, researchers have detected a rise and fall in novel coronavirus concentrations that correspond to the shape of the COVID-19 outbreak in the region, where a lockdown is now suppressing spread of the disease. Although several research groups have reported detecting coronavirus in wastewater, the researchers say the new study is the first to show that the technique can pick up a sharp rise in viral concentrations in sewage before cases explode in the clinic. That points to its potential as a cheap, noninvasive tool to warn against outbreaks, they say.I wonder if it is sensitive enough a test if there is a flu catching on as well? This method of testing for community spread of illness is better established than I knew, however:
Another advantage of wastewater sampling is that it picks up virus associated with the vast number of people who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 but do not present symptoms for the disease, says Paul Bertsch, science director of land and water at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Australia. Although viral shedding varies among individuals and over the course of their infection, he says, a sewage system blends these variations into an average that represents the wider community. And depending on the sewage system, the warnings can come quickly. He points out that wastewater monitoring in Israel, for example, picked up a polio outbreak before any clinical cases appeared at all, according to a 2018 study.Brisbane gets a mention in the next paragraph:
Building on similar studies in the Netherlands and the United States, Bertsch’s group last week reported the first detection of coronavirus in Australian sewage. He and his colleagues sampled wastewater in Brisbane representing 600,000 people, in March and April. In contrast to the study in Paris, they found a peak of viral shedding that corresponded to the peak detected through direct human testing. The difference might be explained by more prevalent human testing in Australia, he says.Fascinating...
Bertsch says he hopes to “tap into” Australia’s existing systems for monitoring wastewater for illegal drugs to develop a national COVID-19 monitoring system that could be in place within 1 month. Later, it might even be feasible to “go up-pipe” with specialized sampling portals allowing finer-scale community sampling. “We could test by postal code, for example,” he says.
Things that are attracting little attention due to COVID-19
* that Canadian mass shooting, which sounds to have some pretty unusual details:
This year is on track to be Earth’s warmest on record, beating 2016, NOAA says
Police say the hunt for the gunman was hampered by the fact he was driving a vehicle that looked like a police cruiser and was wearing a police uniform. How he procured both is part of the investigation.* the US Senate Intelligence Committee, in a bi-partisan report, acknowledges that Trump won with the help of Russia's "unprecedented interference", which was approved by Putin. Trump wingnut denialism will continue, regardless. The Axios summary:
The search ended around midday on Sunday when the suspected shooter was located by police at a service station in Enfield, north of the provincial capital of Halifax. He was shot and later died.
Police have faced criticism for failing to issue a province-wide emergency alert to warn residents of the danger during the rampage.
The Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday released the fourth volume of its report on Russian interference in the 2016 election, which focused on a December 2016 intelligence community assessment provided to President Obama.* There has been news about ocean temperatures being high around the globe, with the Gulf of Mexico causing Florida to have a very warm spring. Indicates some big, wet hurricanes to come, which is just what the US needs after an economic slow down. And the whole planet is still hot:
Why it matters: The bipartisan report affirms the intelligence community's conclusion that Russia interfered in the election to help President Trump defeat Hillary Clinton, noting that the assessment "reflects proper analytic tradecraft despite being tasked and completed within a compressed timeframe."
The big picture: The highly redacted report breaks with an investigation by the GOP-led House Intelligence Committee in 2018, which disagreed with the intelligence agencies' assessment and concluded that the Russian government did not explicitly intend to help Trump win the election.
Worth noting: The report finds that U.S. intelligence agencies did not use information from the infamous Steele dossier to support its findings. The dossier was included in a highly classified annex to the assessment, which was in line with President Obama's directive.
- The Senate committee found "specific intelligence reporting to support the assessment that Putin and the Russian Government demonstrated a preference for candidate Trump," and that Putin "approved and directed" aspects of the interference.
- The Senate committee also disagreed with the House's claim that the intelligence agencies did not comply with analytical standards, noting: "The Committee found the ICA presents a coherent and well-constructed intelligence basis for the case of unprecedented Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election."
- "The Committee did not discover any significant analytic tradecraft issues in the preparation or final presentation of the ICA."
This year is on track to be Earth’s warmest on record, beating 2016, NOAA says
Tuesday, April 21, 2020
On Malcolm (and Peta and Tony)
I don't have much sympathy for Malcolm Turnbull, but this quote about Abbott and Credlin is pretty amusing:
Even other people within the party hated her style:
“Peta has always strongly denied that she and Tony were lovers. But if they were, that would have been the most unremarkable aspect of their friendship.”For a couple not having an affair, it is pretty hilarious that so many people - on their own side of politics - found it hard to believe that they were not lovers. Remember this?:
According to an extract published in The Australian, Senator Fierravanti-Wells went to Mr Abbott the night before the failed first attempt to unseat him last February.This must make Credlin's list of Liberal politicians she dislikes pretty long.
She told the then-prime minister he had to remove Ms Credlin, arguing colleagues considered her responsible for many of the government's problems, and they were prepared to take out their frustrations on him.
Senator Fierravanti-Wells is quoted in the book as telling Mr Abbott "politics is about perceptions".
"Rightly or wrongly, the perception is that you are sleeping with your chief of staff. That's the perception, and you need to deal with it.
"I am here because I care about you, and I care about your family, and I feel I need to tell you the truth, the brutal truth. This is what your colleagues really think."
According to the book, Mr Abbott responded calmly and said the rumours were not true.
Even other people within the party hated her style:
Tony Abbott’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, has been described as a “horsewoman of the apocalypse” as further leaks emerge from within the Liberal party executive.Everyone can see that there have been, shall we say, less than laudatory aspects of Turnbull's personality over the years; but the condemnation of Peta's has many more vouching for it. And poor old Tony ended up its political victim. Funny old world...
ABC’s Four Corners program has obtained a text message sent from federal Liberal party treasurer Philip Higginson to a senior party figure, in which he describes Credlin as the “horsewoman of the apocalypse” with “black robes flowing”.
The text message continues: “I do hope you can negotiate the removal of Credlin. That would be a huge win in itself,” the ABC reports.
Didn't see this coming
So, it appears that a liberal trying to stop Right wing astroturfing was mistaken for a Right wing astroturfer? And he was an old guy prepared to spend $4,000 doing that? What a strange story.
It should be said that people, Left or Right, who do social media doxing and pile ons really need to stop.
It should be said that people, Left or Right, who do social media doxing and pile ons really need to stop.
The very nasty cornavirus
This article at Science should make anyone really, really want to avoid catching this coronavirus:
How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes
How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes
As the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 surges past 2.2 million globally and deaths surpass 150,000, clinicians and pathologists are struggling to understand the damage wrought by the coronavirus as it tears through the body. They are realizing that although the lungs are ground zero, its reach can extend to many organs including the heart and blood vessels, kidneys, gut, and brain.
“[The disease] can attack almost anything in the body with devastating consequences,” says cardiologist Harlan Krumholz of Yale University and Yale-New Haven Hospital, who is leading multiple efforts to gather clinical data on COVID-19. “Its ferocity is breathtaking and humbling.”
Understanding the rampage could help the doctors on the front lines treat the fraction of infected people who become desperately and sometimes mysteriously ill. Does a dangerous, newly observed tendency to blood clotting transform some mild cases into life-threatening emergencies? Is an overzealous immune response behind the worst cases, suggesting treatment with immune-suppressing drugs could help? What explains the startlingly low blood oxygen that some physicians are reporting in patients who nonetheless are not gasping for breath? “Taking a systems approach may be beneficial as we start thinking about therapies,” says Nilam Mangalmurti, a pulmonary intensivist at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania (HUP).
Revenge of the chickens
I think Tim T might like this story.
I was looking around for stories of Buddhist near death experiences (as you do) and found this one on a website, as extracted from a book by a Thai (I think) monk. I thought it most remarkable for the role chickens play in it. [My bold if you want to get straight to the chicken parts]:
I was looking around for stories of Buddhist near death experiences (as you do) and found this one on a website, as extracted from a book by a Thai (I think) monk. I thought it most remarkable for the role chickens play in it. [My bold if you want to get straight to the chicken parts]:
I,
Phra Tanasiri Sirisumphan, a Buddhist Monk, was accompanying my cousin
as he traveled to another province. I was thirteen years old at the
time. While we were traveling, I came down with a toothache. I went to a
dentist, who took the offending tooth out. I felt much better, but I
still had some pain. I went to a hotel to sleep. But instead of falling
asleep, I lost consciousness. When I came to, I found two Yamatoots. One
of them was standing at the head of my bed, and the other at the foot.
Both of them were holding torches. They looked about thirty years old,
and had very dark skin. They said only “let’s go”. I asked them “where
are you taking me?” They answered: “don’t ask”. I stood up and followed
them. One of them said to the other: ” He is too young, so I’m not going
to help you. You do it alone, I have another job to attend to”.
Eventually, the remaining Yamatoot forced me to go with him. I followed
him until we came to a crossroad. I became afraid at that point because I
had lost my bearings, and would not be able to find my way back.
Finally I came to a temple wall. The Yamatoot took me to a large gate
Where I saw a monk giving a sermon to a group of elderly men and women. I
made the formal gesture of respect to the Monk, and as I did so, I
realized that the truth and highest form of help was to be found in The
Lord Buddha, His Teachings, and those who ordain to follow his way (The
Buddha, The Dharma, and the Sangha – also known as the “triple gem’).
I
walked to a classical style pavilion (Sala). The Yamatoot told me to
wait for someone who was coming to meet us. A very large Yamatoot
arrived who was wearing ancient armor, and carrying a spear. He was
accompanied by a group of normal-sized Yamatoots, all of whom were
carrying weapons. I felt that the situation was becoming very bad.
They
took me to the house of Yama, the Lord of the Dead. Yama told me that I
had committed many sins, especially in having butchered a number of
chickens. I denied it, I said that I had not done that, not even once.
Yama was surprised, and asked his records keeper.”How old is he?”
“Thirteen years, Lord”, came the answer. “What’s his name?” My name was
read out. Yama said: “You’ve taken the wrong man. Take him back.
Quickly. You’ve made a mistake”. I said that, before I returned, I
wanted to see hell. Yama answered: “No. The last thing I have to say to
you is that you will die when you are 27 years old. Be ready”
Yama
assigned a Yamatoot to accompany me back. He took me back to the
crossroad where he said that I must go on from there alone. I was
afraid, and asked him to take me all the way back. He said that I must
go on alone. I walked on alone, and tripped on a tree root. I then
revived.
When
I was 27, I was ill with a stomach ache that lingered on for a year. My
doctor advised surgery. I went in to the hospital, and the procedure
began with anesthesia. As soon as I was under anesthesia, I saw the same
Yamatoot. I remembered from the last time I had died and been revived.
As he led me to hell’s gate, I walked past a torture chamber. The first
thing I saw was a big copper pot full of boiling water. It was full of
people who cried out from fear. A Yamatoot stood by guarding the people
who were being tortured in this way. I walked away from this scene and
came to a stand of barren tamarind trees. Their normal bark was replaced
by thousands of sharp spikes. Yamatoots at the foot of the tree forced
people to climb these trees by prodding them with spears. I didn’t ask
why these people were being tortured in this way. I already knew. They
were being punished (for sexual wrongdoing). I continued down the same
road and cams to some stairs. At the top of the stairs was a flock of
birds. I climbed these stairs and found myself in the judgment hall of
Yama’s palace. I knew that they were ready to judge me for my sins. A
giant rooster appeared who told Yama that I had killed him. He
emphasized that I had tried to kill him again and again. The rooster
said that he remembered me exactly. An entire flock of roosters also
appeared and testified that I had killed them, as well. I remembered my
actions, and I had to admit that the roosters had told the truth. Yama
said that I had committed many sins, and sentenced me to many rebirths
both as a chicken, and many other kinds of birds. After these births, I
would then be reborn as an angelic being (Thevada) due to my having
performed meritorious actions many times. After Yama was finished
reading my sentence, he commanded a Yamatoot to take me to the place
were I was to receive additional punishments. But, quite suddenly, an
enormous turtle appeared. It screamed at Yama, saying “don’t take him;
he Is a good human, and he should be allowed to live.” Yama asked the
turtle ” what did he do to help you?” The turtle answered. “Long ago, I
almost died because another of these humans wanted to eat me. This man
prevented him, and so, I was able to live out my life.” Yama asked the
turtle if he had any evidence. The turtle asked to be turned upside
down, and told Yama to look at his underside where he would see where
the man had carved his name so many years ago.
Yama
saw the man’s name was there, just as the turtle had said, and believed
the turtle’s story. Yama announced that he was canceling the sentence,
and told me that when I revived, I was to take a vow not to kill any
living thing. He said that it was especially bad to kill animals because
they had to live through so many lives in order to be reborn as humans.
“Love the animals”, he said, “as you love yourself”.
Monday, April 20, 2020
A COVID-19 victim with a Spielberg connection
One of the best features of Spielberg's early 1980's movies ET, Empire of the Sun and The Color Purple was the pleasing cinematography. I've noted before that movies at that time often had a warm, glowing look in the cinematography which I think is quite distinctive in retrospect, and still a pleasure to behold. Cinematography, perhaps because it is mostly digital now*, has a colder, cooler look about it, usually.
The cinematographer of those 3 films, Alan Daviau, has died aged 77 from COVID complications.
Sad.
* just found this graph from January 2016 that illustrates the change:
The cinematographer of those 3 films, Alan Daviau, has died aged 77 from COVID complications.
Sad.
* just found this graph from January 2016 that illustrates the change:
Boris not beloved by all
Isn't it a little odd that, at a time when his catching the virus and apparently coming close to death could be enhancing his popularity as (at least in one respect) a "man of the people" who shares their suffering, it is the Sunday Times that gave voice to internal critics of his early low interest in the looming problem of COVID-19?
Well, I think it odd. Doesn't bode all that well for his future, too...
Well, I think it odd. Doesn't bode all that well for his future, too...
Astroturfing for Covid-19
People noticed how protest groups around the country all used printed out signs with the same fonts. It is an astroturfed movement.
Product endorsement
Send me money, Seahs! I like your sachet of spices that makes for a super quick meal-in-one if you add some diced capsicum, shallots and chopped up bok choy (eat with rice, of course):
Sunday, April 19, 2020
I recommend the gif...
https://twitter.com/TreyCallaway/status/1251273373922897920?s=09
See if I can make that easier...link here.
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Tells a tale of current society
These are some very sad, topical circumstances ripe for discussion by social critics - or perhaps by a novelist of the Tom Wolfe variety, if there are any of those left:
An Uber driver has died from Covid-19 after trying to hide his illness for fear that he would be evicted if his landlord found out, a friend has revealed.
Rajesh Jayaseelan, a married father of two who came to London from India about a decade ago, died alone in Northwick Park hospital in Harrow on 11 April, according to Sunil Kumar, a friend of his.
The 44-year-old driver had “starved” for several days in his rented lodgings, telling his wife by phone that he did not want to leave his room because other residents might realise he had Covid-19 and he would be thrown out.
Kumar, 38, an NHS IT worker, said the fear was founded in an experience in March when a previous landlord allegedly ordered him to leave because he thought Jayaseelan, as a minicab driver, would spread the disease to him and his family. Jayaseelan had to sleep in his car for several nights.
By the time he drove himself to hospital earlier this month, his condition was becoming critical and he was placed on a ventilator. He died shortly after his wife and mother in Bangalore saw him unconscious in a final video call arranged by Kumar.
Jayaseelan is the third Uber driver confirmed to have died from Covid-19 in the capital, but there have been reports of several more.
Flippancy as the marker of foolishness
Tim Blair has it in spades; so does James Morrow. Andrew Bolt tends less to flippancy but more to bloviating outrage - it is truly corrupting to pay a person to have a strong opinion on everything for a living. They are too "culture war" to call out dangerous, foolish and stupid statements by Trump because (surely this is their true sentiment) "of course he's an offensive idiot, but he's our offensive idiot; and isn't it funny how he upsets the libs!"
Latest example:
Yet here's Gray Connolly's take on the afternoon briefings by Trump which (according to polling) are in fact doing him no favours at all in terms of approval:
Latest example:
Yet here's Gray Connolly's take on the afternoon briefings by Trump which (according to polling) are in fact doing him no favours at all in terms of approval:
Too sealed into their own bubble of foolishness to laugh at
Long the home for aged right wing cranks who are often so unpleasant they boast about how their comments to even Murdoch media (or calls to talk back radio) are banned, I mostly post about Catallaxy with at least some degree of amusement at their obliviousness to reality and wild exaggeration.
But you know, their commentary on COVID-19 has put me off visiting the site for more than the briefest look. The intensity of the Dunning Kruger effect on this issue there is just so high that it doesn't seem the slightest bit funny. Perhaps I find it more disturbing than usual because, with an obvious problem that is unfolding over a short time frame (much faster than the time scale of climate change), it becomes just plain offensive that they do not let their bubble of insouciance be interrupted by something even as plain as dead bodies accumulating in foreign countries, foreign leaders skirting close to death, or the extremely worrying death rate amongst doctors and nurses trying to tend to the ill.
There comes a point where stupidity stops being funny and becomes offensive. That site has reached it.
[To clarify: as would be plain, I have felt disgusted with the site many times before, with its misogyny and racism that has often been let slide through, not to mention its active campaign against political action on climate change. But on this issue, it feels more directly offensive because of the immediacy of the life or death choices involved.]
But you know, their commentary on COVID-19 has put me off visiting the site for more than the briefest look. The intensity of the Dunning Kruger effect on this issue there is just so high that it doesn't seem the slightest bit funny. Perhaps I find it more disturbing than usual because, with an obvious problem that is unfolding over a short time frame (much faster than the time scale of climate change), it becomes just plain offensive that they do not let their bubble of insouciance be interrupted by something even as plain as dead bodies accumulating in foreign countries, foreign leaders skirting close to death, or the extremely worrying death rate amongst doctors and nurses trying to tend to the ill.
There comes a point where stupidity stops being funny and becomes offensive. That site has reached it.
[To clarify: as would be plain, I have felt disgusted with the site many times before, with its misogyny and racism that has often been let slide through, not to mention its active campaign against political action on climate change. But on this issue, it feels more directly offensive because of the immediacy of the life or death choices involved.]
Friday, April 17, 2020
So he's always been an idiot. Got it.
Update: more wisdom from Erin:
She also re-tweeted this:
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