The never ending conspiracy world spun by Devine and the dishonest Republicans

Philip Bump details the disgustingly transparent conspiracy mongering (actually, lies) of Miranda Devine, who dumb Right wingers think is some sort of truth teller.   (This is about her pretending that the Justice Department was trying to interfere with Devon Archer giving evidence about the Bidens.)

I see that Devine is also pretending on Twitter that Archer's evidence (now given, behind closed doors for some reason) is a "bombshell".  In fact, it is already clear that it is anything but.  But she has to pretend to her conspiracy addled moron readers.

Update:  the Axios summary - 

A former Hunter Biden associate told Congress that Hunter sold "the illusion of access" by putting his father on speaker phone with business partners, but that then-Vice President Biden never talked shop, according to Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) and a source familiar with the testimony.

Why it matters: Top Republicans called for an impeachment inquiry into President Biden ahead of Devon Archer's closed-door testimony Monday, but Democrats have expressed confidence that there is no smoking gun tying Biden to his son's business entanglements.

Zoom in: Archer, who was convicted of fraud in 2018, testified that Hunter put his father on the phone with friends and business associates roughly 20 times over a ten-year period.

• But Archer "repeated over and over and over again that President Biden never discussed any business dealings or interests with Hunter or anyone else," Goldman told reporters after the hours-long transcribed interview.
• Republicans cast doubt on the claim that Biden simply exchanged "niceties" during the phone calls. They also focused on Archer's testimony that embattled Ukrainian gas company Burisma wanted Hunter on its board for his family's "brand."

The intrigue: Archer testified that he knew nothing about the alleged $5 million bribes paid to the Biden family from a Burisma executive, as was claimed in an unverified FBI document touted and released by Republicans, according to one source familiar.

• Archer also testified that Burisma believed efforts to oust Ukrainian prosecutor general Viktor Shokin were bad for the Ukrainian energy company, according to Goldman.
• This runs counter to Republicans' suggestions over the years that Biden pushed for Shokin's firing — which was official U.S. policy backed by the European Union and International Monetary Fund — to benefit Hunter.

TV viewed

*  I thought I would have a look at the Logies last night, but only because Sam Pang, whose dead pan style of humour I find quite funny, was hosting.  Unfortunately, though, I missed his introductory monologue, which seems to have been well received, and switched over mid show to see him doing a protracted bit involving that old bloke from Home and Away, which seemed to be a big fail.   But then again, I also saw Dave Hughes, whose routine seemed pretty dire, and once again got to wonder how such a strange looking man with a strange delivery ever managed to find a career in visual media.   I probably saw about 20 minutes in total.  It was not, shall we say, holding my interest.

As I watch nearly nothing on commercial free-to-air TV, that's hardly surprising.  I was going to say that the industry insiders seem to lack insight into how few people really care for them (and it's always been a cringe-fest); but now that I check, there were 877,000 Australians watching it, at least at the start.  (That's far more than I expected, but I would also expect there was less than half of that by the end!)  

* On a more positive note - Futurama has been revived, and while it is on Hulu in the USA, here the first episode has dropped on Disney +.  

I thought it was very, very good:  an extremely self aware take on cancelled shows and binge watching TV.  In other words, it was mocking itself in a very meta but pretty pleasing way.   It seems all of the voice actors are back, and the writers, I think this episode would have pleased everyone.  

Internal critic

I don't recall reading about Dr Allan Frances before - but he turned up on Radio National yesterday morning talking about his views on overdiagnosis of various psychiatric problems (ADHD in kids being one issue), and he sounded pretty convincing and sensible to my mind.   (One thing I did not know was that there is apparently a much greater proportion of the youngest kids in classes who get diagnosed with ADHD.  He thinks there is no other explanation for this other than kids who are too immature for the class  having worse behaviour, and it being turned into a medical problem.)  

The RN interview can be heard on the ABC website, but I don't know how long for.

His Wiki page indicates he has been running his arguments for a long time.  It would seem he is not being paid much attention, though...

  

Amateur science noted

Quite a charming article here at Science on how a 75 year old Japanese guy is one of the most prolific discoverers of supernova.  It starts:

For Koichi Itagaki, it was just another evening of supernova hunting. After his usual 7 p.m. dinner with his wife, he drove to his private observatory in the hills above his home in Yamagata, Japan, 290 kilometers north of Tokyo. He set out treats for the only visitors he allows on his celestial patrols: a stray cat he calls Nora and the raccoon dogs that warily approach from the surrounding forest. He then took a seat within his “headquarters,” a cozy hut equipped with a bed, minifridge, microwave—and a dozen monitors used to control seven telescopes at three locations across Japan.

On clear nights, each telescope runs through a routine, focusing on one of the approximately 1000 galaxies Itagaki monitors for two 15-second exposures before swiveling to the next target. On this night, clouds blanketed most of the country, leaving a clear view only for his two telescopes in Okayama, 700 kilometers to the southwest. But as the clock ticked into the early morning of 20 May, clouds drifted over Okayama, too. Itagaki called it a night and drove home, leaving the telescopes on automatic in case the weather cleared.

It did. The next morning he had scanned the night’s images for just 5 minutes when he spotted a new, bright object in a spiral arm of the Pinwheel galaxy, 21 million light-years away. “It was so bright, I thought there was no way this object could have been missed,” he says. To his surprise, he was the first to post the news to the Transient Name Server (TNS), the International Astronomical Union’s database of new celestial objects. As word spread on TNS and the Astronomer’s Telegram, an email alert service, professionals and amateurs alike began pointing their instruments toward SN 2023ixf, the universe’s newest exploding star and the closest to Earth in a decade. It was growing brighter by the minute....

Cheerful, friendly, and easy-going, Itagaki is a trim 75-year-old with wisps of white hair, wire-rimmed bifocals, and a self-effacing sense of humor. “I am not an astronomer,” Itagaki says, smiling broadly while waving his left hand dismissively, as if shooing away a fly. “I’m looking for new celestial bodies as a hobby.” He traces his path into astronomy to a boyhood fascination with lenses. “I used to play with lenses, using sunlight to burn paper,” he says. In junior high, he spent his allowance on a DIY telescope kit and studied the Moon a bit. “I also used it to spy on the neighbors,” he says, smiling and waving.

Then in 1963, a 19-year-old Japanese amateur named Kaoru Ikeya grabbed national headlines when he discovered a comet with a more substantial homemade telescope. “It amazed me that you could search the stars like this,” Itagaki says. Within Itagaki’s hut, a framed 1963 newspaper clipping of Ikeya’s achievement hangs in homage.

 The observatory set up indicates he's put a fair amount of money into his hobby:

 And this is just one of three he uses...

 

 

"Reading the room" is a concept unknown to her, apparently

 Update:  oh, that screenshot doesn't mention the key point:

The Republican congresswoman caused a firestorm when she mentioned snubbing her fiancé to make it to a prayer breakfast on time

“When I woke up this morning at seven,” Mace explained, “Patrick, my fiancé, tried to pull me by my waist over this morning in bed and I was like ‘no baby we don’t got time for that this morning, I’ve gotta get to the prayer breakfast.’”

“He can wait, I’ll see him later tonight,” she added. 

While the comment may have been a little TMI, conservative influencers reacted with wholehearted disgust. You see, Mace, 45, made the grave mistake of admitting that she, an adult woman, has a sex life outside of the confines of matrimony. A thing we’re 100 percent sure no other right-wing commentator has ever done. 

“That’s some hoe talk,” tweeted Florida Congressional candidate Lavern Spicer in response to a video of the moment. 

Nuclear rocketry back on the cards?

I'm pretty sure that Robert Heinlein's "juvenile" books (in particular Space Family Stone) were explicitly about solar system rocketry using nuclear reactor driven engines.   And NASA did NERVA research early on, but the idea lost momentum (as did the idea of rushing to Mars).   

It seems it might become a thing after all:

In less than three years, NASA could be testing a nuclear rocket in space.

The space agency and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, announced on Wednesday that Lockheed Martin had been selected to design, build and test a propulsion system that could one day speed astronauts on a trip to Mars....

“The technical capabilities, including early safety protocols, remain viable today,” Tabitha Dodson, the DRACO project manager, said in a news briefing on Wednesday.

A key difference between NERVA and DRACO is that NERVA used weapons-grade uranium for its reactors, while DRACO will use a less-enriched form of uranium.

The reactor would not be turned on until it reached space, part of the precautions to minimize the possibility of a radioactive accident on Earth.

There will be protests about the danger of one blowing up on the way to orbit, though.

The report also doesn't really make it clear why the idea has been revived...

Underwhelming witness

Do I have this right?  David Grusch says someone who knows and has first hand knowledge told him the government knows about lots of crashed UFOs and recovered stuff and bodies, but he hasn't seen it himself and can't go into further details?

Yeah, that really blows the lid right off the whole matter....

Update:  this Vox skeptical summary of the whole situation (which is not behind a paywall) seems about right.

Odd news from Japan

 These headlines caught my eye:

OK, let's take number 2 first:

The study covered prefectural residents aged 40 or older who underwent annual health checkups in the seven cities of Kaminoyama, Yamagata, Higashine, Sakata, Tendo, Yonezawa and Sagae. The subjects were studied for a maximum of nine years from 2009, with a median follow-up period of 7.1 years.

The subjects were asked if they had any interest in the opposite sex. They were also questioned about their medical history, use of medication, how often they laughed and mental stress levels.

The researchers studied the correlation between those factors and the risk of death.

They found that 8.3 percent of the roughly 7,700 male subjects and 16.1 percent of the 11,400 or so female subjects were not interested in the opposite sex. The team said 503 test subjects, 356 men and 147 women, died during the follow-up study.

Analysis of the data showed that 9.6 percent of the men who said they had no interest in the opposite sex died during the nine years. The death rate among men who said they were still sexually interested in women was 5.6 percent.

The researchers concluded the difference shows a significantly higher risk of death, even when discounting other factors, such as age and chronic illnesses.

The data on women indicated no correlation between their sexual interest and risk of death, the team members added.

I'm assuming that a significant part of this could be that the men with erectile dysfunction, which can indicate poor general health, are the ones with low interest in the opposite sex?   Or does the discounting of "chronic illness" account for that?   

Also, I continue to be very surprised that this story from last year did not really gain any widespread publicity:

And at the end of 2021, a group at Cleveland Clinic analyzed the insurance claims for more than 7 million Americans and found that people on Viagra were almost 70% less likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease than people who were not on the drug.

(It was already know to be pretty good for the heart, too.)

I would recommend that the Japanese get into prescribing it for "men with no interest in women".  :)

And as for the first story:  it sounds like a very weird true crime story -

SAPPORO--Police on July 24 arrested a woman and her father in connection with the discovery of a headless body in a hotel here three weeks ago.

Runa Tamura, 29, and her father Osamu, a 59-year-old doctor, were held on suspicion of damaging, abandoning and illegally possessing a body, police said.

Police believe the victim, a 62-year-old Hokkaido resident, was known to Runa, who lives in Sapporo.

The daughter and father pair are suspected of decapitating the man in a hotel in Sapporo’s Susukino entertainment district late on July 1 or early on July 2, the police said.

They are also suspected of taking the victim's head to another location. It remains missing.

The man died from a stab wound in the body. His head was apparently cut off after death, investigative sources said.

The victim’s body was naked. No clothing or belongings such as a cellphone or wallet were found.

There were no signs of a struggle in the hotel room, and the victim had no defense wounds, the sources said.

 What on earth was going on??

Must be China week here

Well, Paul Krugman's column (which I will generously gift link) is mainly about what happened to Japan, but it does refer to China too:

These days the focus of anxiety about global competition has shifted from Japan to China, which is a bona fide economic superpower: Adjusted for purchasing power, its economy is already bigger than ours. But China has seemed to be faltering lately, and some have been asking whether China’s future path might resemble that of Japan.

My answer is that it probably won’t — that China will do worse. But to understand why I say that, you need to know something about what happened to Japan, which wasn’t at all the catastrophe I think many people imagine.

Krugman's argument is that Japan's basic problem is its demography, and that it has done reasonably well, considering.

As usual, he's easy to understand and presents a reasonable argument.

It's a worry

Here's a very concerning post at Real Climate by Stefan Rahmstorf about the high uncertainty as to what is happening to Atlantic currents under climate change.

This should be read to add a lot of detail to news reports today about the latest study indicating that the AMOC might shut down much sooner than the IPCC thought likely.

I'm not who I think I am?

I was just fooling around with Chat GTP, and asked it to tell me about Opinion Dominion blog.  This is most of the response:

As of my last update in September 2021, "Opinion Dominion" was a personal blog run by David Tiley, an Australian writer and film critic. The blog covered a wide range of topics, including politics, economics, science, technology, and film reviews.

Here are some key points about the Opinion Dominion blog:

1. Author: The blog was primarily authored by David Tiley, who is known for his insightful commentary and analysis on various subjects. David has a background in science and journalism, and his diverse interests are reflected in the topics he covers on the blog.

2. Topics: The Opinion Dominion blog covered a broad spectrum of topics, including political issues and current events in Australia and around the world. David also delved into economic matters, providing his take on economic policies and developments. Additionally, he shared his thoughts on films, TV shows, and cultural events.

3. Thoughtful Analysis: David Tiley's writing on the blog was known for its thoughtful and informed analysis. He often delved into the nuances of the subjects he discussed, providing readers with a deeper understanding of the issues at hand.

Ha!  I had to Google to check, but David Tiley is a real Australian writer and critic, which Chat GTP has imagined (for completely unknown reason) is the author of this blog. 

He isn't.   

There's no doubt, I think, that the summary does reflect the blog in some ways - the broad scope of topics, for example.  And of course, I am happy if it is identified as having "thoughtful and informed analysis".   

But it's dreamt up an author identity based on - what, I wonder?

 

Why Singaporeans are oddly sympathetic to China

Is it just a case of one virtual "one party" micro state admiring the biggest actual "one party" state of them all?  (Sorry Singapore, you know I love you.)

Anyway, the Washington Post has a very long article looking at why Singaporeans (mostly the Chinese Singaporeans, probably) are oddly sympathetic to China, when the rest of the world is increasingly leery:

A 2022 survey of 19 countries by the Pew Research Center found that Singapore was one of only three that saw China and Xi in favorable terms. In June, the Eurasia Group Foundation released a survey conducted in Singapore, South Korea and the Philippines that found Singapore was the only one that viewed China more favorably than it did the United States. Fewer than half of respondents in Singapore viewed the United States favorably, compared with 56 percent who viewed China favorably.

“If too many Chinese Singaporeans are foolish enough to subscribe to Xi’s version of the ‘China Dream,’ the multiracial social cohesion that is the foundation of Singapore’s success will be destroyed,” said Bilahari Kausikan, a former permanent secretary of Singapore’s Foreign Ministry. “Once destroyed, it cannot be put together again.”

Singapore’s government passed a law to prevent foreign interference in domestic politics that went into effect last year, and has warned its ethnic-Chinese population against “hostile foreign influence operations” and stressed a distinct Singapore-Chinese identity. But messaging by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on key issues such as the role of the United States in the region and China’s internal politics is already entrenched in Singapore, including in a leading Chinese-language publication long backed by Singapore’s government.

It has a lot to do with that Chinese language news in Singapore, and old people.  

A really good read, so I have gift linked to it (above).  

 

Some light reading on madness for today!

I forget exactly what I was Googling about yesterday when this cropped up:

Did Christianity lead to schizophrenia? Psychosis, psychology and self reference

Well, that's a provocative sounding title!  It's from a journal called Transcultural Psychiatry, which probably has lots of interesting articles, I imagine.

Anyway, it's there to read in full online, and it seems to run, shall we say, a not completely unreasonable argument?   But I haven't had time to read it all carefully yet.

 

Moussaka noted

While I'm generally on the dismissive side of Greek cuisine, I have tried cooking moussaka before, and gave it a go again on the weekend for the first time in probably a couple of decades.   (The inspiration:  cheap eggplant and very un-fatty looking lamb mince at Harris Farm.)  

I followed this recipe to good success.

The reasons it was better than I remembered were no doubt:

*  I didn't fry the eggplant in olive oil and let it soak it up like a sponge:  I baked it for 25 minutes after just brushing the slices with olive oil.  

*   the potatoes were sliced thinner than I used to do (just half a centimetre) and they were also brushed and baked at the same time as the eggplant.

*   despite having made bechamel sauce many times before, I don't recall ever following a recipe that had egg yolk added at the end.  But yeah, it definitely increases the richness, and perhaps the thickness, of the final product.

*   a combination of a slightly thicker bechamel and letting it sit for 10 minutes before serving did mean I didn't have runaway flow of bechamel when I served it.   

I adjusted the quantities to about 3/4 of what is in the recipe, and it still made enough for 6 servings.  It's a very substantial dish to eat.

That is all...

Quiggin talks China

John Quiggin takes a quick overview of changes in China, and encourages us not to be too pessimistic about how it affects us.  

Speaking of China, did anyone else watch the ABC's latest short run series of China Tonight?   It was buried a bit on a late night slot, perhaps because it seemed they wanted to make it lighter in tone with (relatively) unknown hosts.  When I say "lighter in tone", it was actually half comedic.  I found it informative, but a bit peculiar.   

These ABC shows focused on particular countries are actually pretty good, generally speaking - and I think they should perhaps be given greater time slot prominence if they want an audience.

Back to that unpleasant topic

I have briefly noted before that Japan had an issue with widespread infanticide during the Edo period (1603 - 1868)*, when mentioning that it was reported by anthropologists as common in aboriginal society, but I have not read anything before about the situation in Europe around the same time. 

It would seem that evidence for it being pretty widespread there, too, in the same period, may have been staring us in the face for a long time:

"Routine" infanticide of newborns by married parents in early modern Europe was a much more widespread practice than previously thought, a new book posits.  

This fresh insight sits at the heart of a new book, "Death Control in the West 1500–1800: Sex Ratios at Baptism in Italy, France and England, "by Gregory Hanlon and contributors....

Hanlon, who is Distinguished Research Professor at Dalhousie University in Canada, calls attention to the limited scope of existing scholarship, which has never focused on sex ratios of infants brought for baptism within hours or days after their birth.

These records reveal startling spikes in the number of male baptisms in the aftermath of famines or diseases.

He notes, "Historians in the West have relied almost exclusively on records of criminal trials in which unwed mothers or married women carrying progeny not sired by their husbands hid their pregnancies and killed their newborns alone or with female accomplices. Married infanticidal mothers may have been a hundred times more numerous."

Hanlon's research suggests that in rural Tuscany at the height of infanticide the victims might have constituted up to a third of the total number of live births. 

Using baptismal registers and ecclesiastical censuses drawn from scores of parishes in Italy, France and England, Hanlon shows similar infanticide patterns across city and country, for Catholics, Calvinists and Anglicans alike.

In Italy's rural 17th century Tuscany, Hanlon suggests that parents seemed willing to sacrifice a child if they were a twin, opting to keep just one of the newborns. In the north Italian city of Parma, Laura Hynes Jenkins found that working-class parents preferred girls over boys.

The question of how the baby was dealt with was important for the legal consequences:

Hanlon calls attention to lax punitive measures taken for crimes of infanticide, and notes, "Tribunals operated against single mothers almost exclusively, but only if they killed the newborn deliberately. Simple abandonment was not a comparable offense."

It seems almost hard to believe that the sex ratios of children being baptised has never been examined before for this type of research - but it seems hard to imagine that obvious large differences in sex ratios could be explained in any other way.

I would also comment that this shows that the pro-life anti-abortion movement, when it emphasises women's guilt over having an abortion as a reason not to have one, is pretty clearly ignoring the historical evidence of psychological ability of parents to not regret ending their own child's life for very economically pragmatic reasons.   (Not, I should hasten to add, that I am trying to make a case for the return of baby killing or abandonment...) 

 

* You can watch a Youtube explanation here done by an animation channel that is pretty good on explaining Japanese history and culture, actually.

 

A reasonable Krugman take

Given that I noticed Noah Smith saying the other day that he would do a post soon about how Europe must be doing something wrong (he was looking at average adjusted incomes between the US and Europe, I think), this column by Krugman is pretty good and balanced.

 I will gift link to it, but here are some key parts:

Our global standing is never as good or as bad as conventional wisdom has it at any given moment. And the downside of getting puffed up about our relative performance is that we may fail to learn from things other nations do better.

I say this as someone who’s seen us go through multiple ups and downs on this front. There was the manic Morning in America phase of the mid-1980s, followed by the depressive mood of the early ’90s: “The Cold War is over and Japan won.” Then came a late-90s surge in triumphalism as America temporarily took the lead in taking advantage of the internet, which receded as other countries also got online, productivity gains from information technology petered out, America led the way into global financial crisis and China emerged as a powerful economic rival.

Now the boastfulness is back, with a special emphasis on trashing European economic performance. For example, I’ve been seeing media organizations that really should know better saying things like this: “America’s economy is nearly twice the size of the eurozone’s. In 2008 they were similar,” which appeared on a chart in The Wall Street Journal.

You can read the next bit, but further down:

Put it this way: Just comparing dollar values of G.D.P. in America and Europe arguably overstates the true gap in economic performance by a factor of around 10.

My take is that all modern economies are at roughly the same level of technology. They’re also all capable of achieving remarkable things when they put their mind to it. Have people noticed how quickly Pennsylvania managed to reopen I-95 after a section of the crucial highway collapsed?

But our sophisticated, capable societies often make different choices. Some of these choices are just that — choices where there isn’t necessarily a right answer. For example, one reason European nations generally have lower G.D.P. per capita than we do is that their workers get a lot more vacation. We have more stuff; they have more time. De gustibus and all that.

In other areas, however, some countries almost surely get it wrong. Europe’s lagging growth probably does, in part, reflect inflexibility and resistance to innovation. Americans, on the other hand, should ask themselves why we seem to be worse at building livable cities or, to take one important aspect of life, not dying: U.S. life expectancy had fallen far behind comparable countries even before Covid.

The point is that advanced countries are, in important ways, laboratories for economic and social policy: Nobody is the best at everything, and we can learn a lot by looking at things other countries seem to do better than we do.

Yes:  it is pretty incredible the decrease in life expectancy in the US, not to mention the way a significant number of Americans go bankrupt from medical treatment each year.   

Simple economic measures and comparisons should never be the only way of measuring quality of life...

 

 

A not unreasonable order of priorities

The Washington Post reports:

Respondents in a study released by the nonprofit Pew Research Center were asked to rate the importance of nine separate missions. Only 12 percent of adults think returning astronauts to the surface of the moon should be NASA’s top priority, according to the study. A human landing on Mars is even less popular: Only 11 percent said it should be the top priority.

By contrast, 60 percent said monitoring asteroids should be the agency’s top priority; 50 percent said monitoring climate change should be NASA’s top priority.

Well, that going to Mars is so close to going the Moon is a bit disappointing - given that I reckon the public has no idea how far away we are from having the capacity to safely go there.  (They are persuaded by the boosterism of Musk and movies that are only superficially semi-realistic, like The Martian.)  

I'm going to be very surprised if the Voice referendum passes

It's not that I particularly value the opinion of Chelsea Watego at all; it's just that she is one of the higher profile (such that she gets a run in the Guardian) aboriginal academics who is pre-emptively providing evidence for my view that, even if implemented, the Voice system is likely to continually present government with two views - one from the Voice group itself, and one from other indigenous spokespeople critical of the decisions of the Voice representatives.  Given that the Voice opinion is not meant to be binding, it will mean governments having to choose between two opinions from within the indigenous community, which is pretty much exactly what happens now on many key issues anyway.

True, I can see that if the government wants to side with the Voice on a particular decision, deferring to the "official" body may give them political cover:  but there are bound to be cases where it will not be clear which way to jump on an issue, and a Voice recommendation may be politically unpopular.  

Anyway, here is Watego having a whine about being criticised about not endorsing the Voice:

The yes campaign, in its strategy, reveals the very real dangers associated with enshrining a voice to parliament. To enshrine a voice that in this moment is silencing and domesticating the diverse voices of sovereign Black nations across this continent offers more concern than it does hope for the future.

I am not accepting the lie that it’s now or never, or that a seat at their table is the best that’s on offer. I’m not entertaining that what the political left offers is better than the overt racism of the right.

What the Black reformers have forgotten is that Indigenous sovereignty, of the unceded kind, can never be reduced to a matter of settler-colonial affiliations of left or right.

It’s the settlers, to the left and to the right who remain on the same ledger when it comes to undermining Indigenous sovereignty.

If those yes vote evangelists are as committed as they say they are to us having a voice, then Blackfullas should be able to express what we think, we feel and know – with or without the readings, law degrees, children’s books or whatever.

Blackfullas should be able to speak of the limitations of the proposed voice without being cast as intellectually incapable, mentally ill, politically disloyal, professionally inept, deceptive, treacherous and a threat to be contained, complained about, blamed or blocked.

 Basically, if the indigenous community itself appears divided on the value of the Voice, it's hardly an encouragement for the Yes vote.  

There is also something like pre-emptive over-reach going on in several respects:   retailers promoting the Yes vote by in-store announcements made to shoppers (it is way more likely to hurt than help in any shop outside of a handful in capital cities, I reckon);  the publicity given to claims that aboriginal organisations are making unwarranted claims for compensation for something as innocuous as tree planting in Western Australia; and the renewed push to co-name places with aboriginal names.  (Apparently, the Cairns and Mackay airports now flash between aboriginal and "colonial" names for cities - a surprising move that, again, I reckon is a case of  moving way ahead of public opinion.)

I think it is likely all heading towards an emphatic loss at the referendum.

Glad they got the maths right

Here's another good, short clip from Welch Labs, directly related to Oppenheimer, about the calculations that went into feeling assured enough that the first atomic bomb would not accidentally destroy the entire planet: