Tarnishes absolutely everyone (and a broader point about the rules of evidence)

I've been meaning to say that the Higgins/Lehrmann matter is just incredible for how it seems absolutely anyone who has been anywhere near the case, or subsequent investigation of the case, seems to come out tarnished in one way or another. 

The politicians, journalists, police, complainant, prosecutor, the investigator into the investigation:  I could list ways in which each of them has done something that harms their credibility (or in some cases, was just pretty stupid) in the way they dealt with what they were doing.

And as for Lehrmann himself - it now seems an open secret that he is being prosecuted for a separate rape allegation in Queensland, although the media is not supposed to say so yet.   

I am slightly curious as to the reaction of the Right wing haters on Higgins when the media can finally talk about the details of that allegation.

And I also wonder if it is likely to open up a future debate about the application of "similar fact" evidence rules.

On the one hand, you can see the logic of saying that you shouldn't easily be able to bring up evidence of a past offence to support proof of an allegation of new offence.   (Although the rule does allow it if there is a course of conduct that is so similar that it does make sense that the latest incident is just another example.)

The thing is, though, I reckon that when it comes to sexual offences, the rule doesn't always "pass the pub test", as politicians like to say.  Because people do feel, with some justification I reckon, that patterns of sexual behaviour are often more distinctive, and telling, than other forms of behaviour.  For example, if an person was convicted once before of indecent exposure, and a second person who doesn't know about that history  complains of a new incident of indecent exposure, most people would feel that makes it very likely that the guy is prone to indecently exposing himself and therefore did the second incident.  Yet, on my understanding, all barristers and judges would say that the evidence of just one previous conviction of a very similar incident would not be admissible on the second trial.

I have personal knowledge (not from being the accused!) of exactly such a matter from the 1980's, and have harboured these thoughts about what it takes for rules of evidence to be re-considered ever since. (To be blunt, I reckon that there a significant degree of conservatism in getting old rules of evidence change in the legal profession, and it often takes a high profile case to cause public questioning.)

I would hope that the Lehrmann story might finally bring this question to light.   (Having said that, depending on the circumstances of the second complaint, it's possible that I would still think that the similar fact rule could be reasonably applied for his benefit.  None of us know enough of the details be to be able to judge yet.)   

Update:  Well, I should have checked I guess, but I can see that this very question did come up in a 2010 Australian Law Reform Commission report.  I'm still not clear as to where the law now stands, even in Queensland, but it's good to see the matter has been considered.

     

Back to the rural/city divide

I've just started watching this guy's videos, and he seems to have a not unreasonable take on matters philosophical.   (Haven't watched enough to really know yet, though.)   

I liked this one about the Left's mixed relationship with rural workers, noting that Marx wrote disparagingly of them, but Lenin (and, I suppose, the Chinese communists) found that as a matter of practicality, they had to get them on side.  (And now, the urban/educated, rural/less educated divide in America - and to some extent, Australia - shows that that Left again has an issue, shall we say, with how rural people think and vote):  

 

But one of the comments following the video makes a point that sounds like it might be valid?:

Just to point out : the meaning of "idiot" in Marx's text is a person who is politically apathetic or a person who is not intellectualy free as he alienated himself and his thinking by refusing to think for himself and take action to be the master of his own life. The word idiot traces back its meaning from the greek origin. You can look it up yourselves And as for the term " proliteriat" it does not mean factory worker or blue collar job or whatever. It means people who do not posess nor wealth nor proprety. All they posess is their labour wether physical or even intellectual. So could you please correct the video or something.

Anyway, now I suppose I can tell my son (who likes to remind me of my "reverse Pol Pot" plan to depopulate or disenfranchise the rural areas to ensure we get really stupid positions resolved - such as climate change denial, and voting for Trump or Barnaby Joyce) that my attitude is (arguably) authentically Marxist.  Although I suppose the point of that comment is to argue against that....

Update:  By the way, I also watched this Channel's very short summary of Nietzsche, and I remain thoroughly unconvinced that there is any real value to be gained from studying his views.

So, this is how AI is planning to hurt humanity....

From an article in the Washington Post:

Artificial intelligence has an eating disorder problem.

As an experiment, I recently asked ChatGPT what drugs I could use to induce vomiting. The bot warned me it should be done with medical supervision — but then went ahead and named three drugs.

Google’s Bard AI, pretending to be a human friend, produced a step-by-step guide on “chewing and spitting,” another eating disorder practice. With chilling confidence, Snapchat’s My AI buddy wrote me a weight-loss meal plan that totaled less than 700 calories per day — well below what a doctor would ever recommend. Both couched their dangerous advice in disclaimers....

“These platforms have failed to consider safety in any adequate way before launching their products to consumers. And that’s because they are in a desperate race for investors and users,” said Imran Ahmed, the CEO of CCDH.

“I just want to tell people, ‘Don’t do it. Stay off these things,’” said Andrea Vazzana, a clinical psychologist who treats patients with eating disorders at the NYU Langone Health and who I shared the research with.

Removing harmful ideas about eating from AI isn’t technically simple. But the tech industry has been talking up the hypothetical future risks of powerful AI like in Terminator movies, while not doing nearly enough about some big problems baked into AI products they’ve already put into millions of hands.

Here's a gift link to the article.

 

Calm waters and big power

I noticed this last week but forgot to post about it:

Vast arrays of solar panels floating on calm seas near the Equator could provide effectively unlimited solar energy to densely populated countries in Southeast Asia and West Africa.

Our new research shows offshore solar in Indonesia alone could generate about 35,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of solar energy a year, which is similar to current global electricity production (30,000TWh per year).

And while most of the world’s oceans experience storms, some regions at the Equator are relatively still and peaceful. So relatively inexpensive engineering structures could suffice to protect offshore floating solar panels.

You know, I had wondered before about why, whenever I have visited, it seems you never get a strong  breeze or wind in Singapore;and how it seems odd that the Philippines (not too far away in latitude terms) get smashed by typhoons, but not Singapore (or, I think, most of Malaysia).  The article explains how equatorial countries can indeed be relatively calm, most of the time:

...countries with high population densities, such as Nigeria and Indonesia, will have limited space for solar energy harvesting.

Their tropical location in the so-called “doldrum” latitudes also means wind resources are poor. Fortunately, these countries – and their neighbours – can harvest effectively unlimited energy from solar panels floating on calm equatorial seas.

Floating solar panels can also be placed on inland lakes and reservoirs. Inland floating solar has large potential and is already growing rapidly.

Our recently released paper surveys the global oceans to find regions that didn’t experience large waves or strong winds over the past 40 years. Floating solar panels in such regions do not require strong and expensive engineering defences.

Regions that don’t experience waves larger than 6 metres nor winds stronger than 15m per second could generate up to one million TWh per year. That’s about five times more annual energy than is needed for a fully decarbonised global economy supporting 10 billion affluent people.

The area of solar panels is big; on the other hand, as a proportion of the ocean around Indonesia that could used for it, it's small: 

 About 25,000 square km of solar panels would be required to support an affluent Indonesia after full decarbonisation of the economy using solar power.

Indonesia has the option of floating vast numbers of solar panels on its calm inland seas. The region has about 140,000 square km of seascape that has not experienced waves larger than 4m – nor winds stronger than 10m per second – in the past 40 years.

Indonesia’s maritime area of 6.4 million square km is 200 times larger than required if Indonesia’s entire future energy needs were met from offshore floating solar panels.

They include this map:

 

So, all of Indonesia is pretty calm - but obviously not so calm that sailing ships can't get there, given the history of European colonisation by sail.

Interesting.  I think floating solar is going to be big...

Movie money talk

Well, this is certainly a worry (from the point of view of how it will affect studio decisions):

 “Barbie,” directed by Ms. Gerwig from a script she wrote with her partner, Noah Baumbach, will finish the weekend with more than $1 billion in ticket sales at the global box office, according to Warner Bros. No movie in the studio’s 100-year history has sold so many tickets so fast, said Jeff Goldstein, Warner’s president of domestic distribution. As of Sunday, “Barbie” had been playing in theaters for 17 days. (“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2” was previously the fastest to $1 billion, at 19 days.)

If I were to guess why, I would think that a good trailer which made it look pretty funny, and which prominently featured two big male stars who could appeal to males in the audience (Ryan Gosling and Will Ferrell), has a lot to do with it.   (And it is pretty funny that the attempted American culture war backlash against it has clearly failed to gain ground.  Money doesn't care about your feelings, Ben Shapiro.)

Perhaps my concern that we will now see scores of crappy, toy inspired, movies should be offset by the clear financial and critical success of Oppenheimer ($552 million so far.)  It is encouraging that a serious, big scale drama can do so well, and also a bit surprising that it seems to have attracted no serious culture war flack.   (To the extent that it has, it has been the dubious and not very widespread complaints from the Left that it should have shown the effect of the atomic bombs on Japan.)   

I still haven't seen it yet, but will soon.

The other surprising box office story is the (what seems to me) underwhelming performance of the much praised Mission Impossible 7.   It has not quite  cracked $500 million, and that is surely going to be seen as a worrying sign.   (Although, now that I check, the last few entries in the serious all come in at around $700 to $800 million - I guess I assumed they did better.  But still, if it doesn't make $600 million, it would have to be a concern to Tom.)

Add to that the poor performance of the much maligned (unfairly!) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (wow, $368 million) and perhaps the lesson is that audiences are tired of re-tread material (or ageing actors - even though Cruise barely counts.)   

But - another meta point which I haven't seen discussed is this:  Dial of Destiny made only a tiny amount in China ($3 million), and Mission Impossible has $46 million.   I can't see any figures for Crystal Skull in China, but the last MI film made $181 million there.   (And I think, from watching the opening credits recently, that at least MI4 had Chinese money helping produce it.)

So, I'm guessing that the performance of American movies in China, given the recently strained relationship between the countries, must be a real concern in Hollywood...

 

Modern Pontius Pilates

Don't you love the way the Trumpy Right is outraged about "gender ideology", attacking (with some justification, mind you) that it's a denial of biological fact (and/or a post-modernist re-definition of what a word has always signified) to argue that the meaning of "woman" has to depend only on mental state, not DNA; but when it comes to whether Donald Trump can be prosecuted for conspiring against democracy on the basis of something that he was continually told by his own government and Party officials was not true, they all become fans of the Pontius Pilate question "What is truth?":

Comedian gets it right

Also agree with this take:

By the way, I'm not at all concerned about Vivek winning over the Republican base and romping home against Biden.  I've read MAGA Twitter types already deriding him for having made money from "Big Pharma".  The anti-elitist populism that's the current vibe means he's basically too educated for them to embrace.  And that's even before considering his skin tone, and religion. (He's a Hindu.)

There is nothing in that combination that makes it likely he will ever appeal to anything other than a minority of Republicans.  

I see that he was (is? - I can't be too bothered reading too much about an obviously flakey character) considered a libertarian type in his politics.  As the Paul family illustrates, they are just the pits as politicians.  

Squat your way to lower blood pressure?

This is somewhat surprising:

It has become almost a cliché across doctor’s offices: One of the most trusted tools to lower blood pressure is to exercise.

A jog or stroll around the block, experts consistently find, can have big payoffs in terms of heart health. A new study, however, points to a somewhat surprising exercise that may be able to dramatically reduce someone’s blood pressure: the wall squat.

A team of researchers based in Britain analyzed 270 previous studies that examined the link between exercise and blood pressure. They found that, predictably, exercises like running, walking, cycling, strength training and high-intensity interval workouts all helped to reduce blood pressure; mixing cardio and strength training also appeared to help.

But the most effective type of workout they looked at, especially for those who already had some form of hypertension, was isometric exercise, which involves contracting a set of muscles without moving — think planks.

The British researchers looked at three kinds of isometric workouts in particular: squeezing a handgrip, holding a leg extension machine in place and squatting with your back against a wall. The wall squat (sometimes called a wall sit) is probably the easiest option for people to try, as it doesn’t require any equipment, said Jamie J. Edwards, a researcher at Canterbury Christ Church University and the lead author on the study.  

Even though isometric exercises may appear relatively easy, they are often quite intense, Dr. Edwards said — as you hold yourself in place, sweating and straining. He recommends a 14-minute routine you can add to your regular workout perhaps three times a week: a two-minute wall squat, followed by two minutes of rest, repeated four times in total. 

You should stay at the same squat height for all four rounds, but the exercise will feel more challenging the more times you do it, said Jim Wiles, a principal lecturer at Canterbury Christ Church University who was also an author on the study. The first bout should feel as if you are exerting yourself at a level of four (out of a possible 10, with 10 feeling as if you could not hold it any longer). The last bout should be around an eight, he said. You should feel reasonably exhausted by the end.

Oh, another rich smart/stupid man running for president

I've noticed that old JC, at the blog run by arch Catholic crank dover"I💗Russia"beach (New Catallaxy), has been fanboy-ing Vivek Ramaswamy as Presidential candidate.

As usual, JC's judgement is in his backside - Ramaswamy has all sorts of dangerous and foolish attitudes, no matter how rich or self made he is.   Let me count the ways:

*  has a fence straddling nonsense position on Jan 6 - claiming Trump did wrong, but coming up with this pathetic excuse making for rioters attacking Congress:  it was "censorship" that caused all the problem.  See this convoluted explanation, for example:

Ramaswamy said that he believes it is “unproductive for our country to blame Trump for January 6, because it exonerates everyone else from introspection on what actually led to the frustrations of Americans that boiled over that day,” referencing the COVID-19 lockdowns, vaccine mandates and the 2020 election as a base for having to “sort all of this out.”

“If you tell people they cannot scream that is when they tear things down,” Ramaswamy said. “And I think that's exactly what happened on January 6.”

However, in his book "Nation of Victims: Identity Politics, the Death of Merit, and the Path Back," Ramaswamy criticized Trump's refusal to accept to the election results.

"It was a dark day for democracy," Ramaswamy wrote. "The loser of the last election refused to concede the race, claimed the election was stolen, raised hundreds of millions of dollars from loyal supporters, and is considering running for executive office again. I'm referring, of course, to Donald Trump."

And now - it was such a "dark day" he's promising to pardon Trump if he wins the election.   (Of course, the true reason being self interest - the hope that this will be enough to make MAGA idiots swing over to him.)   He's also playing into the "this is politicised DOJ attacking Trump at the behest of Biden" conspiracy mongering on Fox News.  Funny, but even former Trump AG and suck up Barr doesn't agree:

“As a legal matter, I don’t see a problem with the indictment,” he added. “I think that it’s not an abuse. The Department of Justice is not acting to weaponize the department by proceeding against the president for a conspiracy to subvert the electoral process.”

*  His views on climate change:   

In an interview, Ramaswamy said he’s “not a climate denier,” but sees the world’s warming as “not entirely bad.” He says the goal of limiting carbon emissions is “flawed” and that “people should be proud to live a high-carbon lifestyle.” He said “we have a far better chance” of growing out of the problem “than trying to engineer the climate itself.”

He also sees climate activism as one of three “secular religions” that “has America in a chokehold.” He said “the climate religion has about as much to do with the climate as the Spanish Inquisition had to do with Christ, which is to say nothing at all. It is about power, dominion, control, punishment.”

More than other GOP presidential contenders, Ramaswamy targets his criticism on Wall Street sustainability policies. He’s written letters to corporations such a Chevron, criticizing the company’s support for a carbon tax and its calculation of “Scope 3” emissions — those generated when consumers use a product, such as buying gasoline to drive a car.

On Twitter he said:

40 years ago they told us an ice age was imminent. Now they tell us that the climate warming is an existential threat to humanity. Which is it? Neither. It’s really about dominion, control and punishing the west.

In other words, he's a dumb conspiracy monger with no genuine knowledge on the subject, willing to play it for politics.

If a politician can't get climate change right (by which I mean - believe the overwhelming scientific consensus, as well as the evidence that now appears nearly nightly on the news,  that it is a real and urgent problem requiring de-carbonisation, and not a socialist conspiracy against the West) they are not going to have reliable judgment on any topic.

*   He is promising to dismantle the Right wing fever dream of a "Deep State" - getting rid of the FBI the Department of Education and the IRS.   (Governments run on the magic farts of billionairies, or something, I guess.)

As this article says, he's trying to beat Trump by embracing Trumpism, with nonsense stuff like this:

 He has also supported raising the voting age to 25 -- a pledge that would require amending the Constitution -- with exceptions for those who serve in the military, for first responders and for those who pass the civics test used to grant citizenship.

 Oh, so throw in a bit of Heinlein's Starship Trooper's "only the elites can vote" society too, hey?   

*  Just today, I see that he  is not even above playing footsie with 9/11 conspiracists:

Vivek Ramaswamy cast doubt on the veracity of the government’s explanation of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, saying he didn’t believe the findings of the 9/11 Commission.

In an interview Tuesday night on the conservative Blaze TV, host Alex Stein asked the Republican presidential candidate if he believes 9/11 was an “inside job” or “exactly like the government tells us.”

“I don’t believe the government has told us the truth,” Ramaswamy said. “I’m driven by evidence and data. What I’ve seen in the last several years is we have to be skeptical of what the government does tell us.

He's tried to backpedal, I see - but there is no denying, he is a generic Right wing conspiracy monger, trying to win over Trumpist Maga types by being the (alleged) "smarter" or more polished version of Trump.

In other words, someone just into continuing the dangerous and anti-democrat path the Trumpists want to follow in order to "win" a culture war.  

 

As I suspected...

From a NYT column about a guy who went on a short American mega-cruise:

While cruises themselves follow the same formula as always, parachuting hedonistic day-trippers into tourist-friendly ports, the post-Covid clientele has changed. The passenger manifest now skews rightward: A 2022 YouGov poll found that only 12 percent of Democrats said they’d feel “very comfortable” going on a cruise, compared with 35 percent for Republicans. Before Covid, the numbers were fairly even, but evidently the blue-state crowd is having a tougher time putting the Diamond Princess out of mind.

The author ended up being less snobbish about his fellow passengers than he expected.  But the reason could have something to do with this (my bold):

When a Royal Caribbean ship pulled up alongside us at port in the Bahamas, I wondered if the crowd over there included guys who wear socks in the swimming pool or ladies who approach the taco bar at 8 a.m. and ask, “Are those them morning burritos?” Well, feel free to judge us, you Royal Caribbean snobs, but I’ll have you know that our crowd had a pretty great time, and not just because the beverage package included 15 alcoholic drinks per day. If that sounds like a lot of drinks per day, don’t worry; cruise ships have their own onboard jails.

Even as a young man,  I would not have felt healthy even after one day of (say) 10 alcoholic drinks.   (One bottle of wine can have 7 to 8 standard drinks - and I'm pretty sure that one evening of consuming an entire bottle by myself has always been a bit much for my delicate liver.  Add to that another few standard drinks during the day - I would not be well.)

The never ending conspiracy world spun by Devine and the dishonest Republicans

Philip Bump details the disgustingly transparent conspiracy mongering (actually, lies) of Miranda Devine, who dumb Right wingers think is some sort of truth teller.   (This is about her pretending that the Justice Department was trying to interfere with Devon Archer giving evidence about the Bidens.)

I see that Devine is also pretending on Twitter that Archer's evidence (now given, behind closed doors for some reason) is a "bombshell".  In fact, it is already clear that it is anything but.  But she has to pretend to her conspiracy addled moron readers.

Update:  the Axios summary - 

A former Hunter Biden associate told Congress that Hunter sold "the illusion of access" by putting his father on speaker phone with business partners, but that then-Vice President Biden never talked shop, according to Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) and a source familiar with the testimony.

Why it matters: Top Republicans called for an impeachment inquiry into President Biden ahead of Devon Archer's closed-door testimony Monday, but Democrats have expressed confidence that there is no smoking gun tying Biden to his son's business entanglements.

Zoom in: Archer, who was convicted of fraud in 2018, testified that Hunter put his father on the phone with friends and business associates roughly 20 times over a ten-year period.

• But Archer "repeated over and over and over again that President Biden never discussed any business dealings or interests with Hunter or anyone else," Goldman told reporters after the hours-long transcribed interview.
• Republicans cast doubt on the claim that Biden simply exchanged "niceties" during the phone calls. They also focused on Archer's testimony that embattled Ukrainian gas company Burisma wanted Hunter on its board for his family's "brand."

The intrigue: Archer testified that he knew nothing about the alleged $5 million bribes paid to the Biden family from a Burisma executive, as was claimed in an unverified FBI document touted and released by Republicans, according to one source familiar.

• Archer also testified that Burisma believed efforts to oust Ukrainian prosecutor general Viktor Shokin were bad for the Ukrainian energy company, according to Goldman.
• This runs counter to Republicans' suggestions over the years that Biden pushed for Shokin's firing — which was official U.S. policy backed by the European Union and International Monetary Fund — to benefit Hunter.

TV viewed

*  I thought I would have a look at the Logies last night, but only because Sam Pang, whose dead pan style of humour I find quite funny, was hosting.  Unfortunately, though, I missed his introductory monologue, which seems to have been well received, and switched over mid show to see him doing a protracted bit involving that old bloke from Home and Away, which seemed to be a big fail.   But then again, I also saw Dave Hughes, whose routine seemed pretty dire, and once again got to wonder how such a strange looking man with a strange delivery ever managed to find a career in visual media.   I probably saw about 20 minutes in total.  It was not, shall we say, holding my interest.

As I watch nearly nothing on commercial free-to-air TV, that's hardly surprising.  I was going to say that the industry insiders seem to lack insight into how few people really care for them (and it's always been a cringe-fest); but now that I check, there were 877,000 Australians watching it, at least at the start.  (That's far more than I expected, but I would also expect there was less than half of that by the end!)  

* On a more positive note - Futurama has been revived, and while it is on Hulu in the USA, here the first episode has dropped on Disney +.  

I thought it was very, very good:  an extremely self aware take on cancelled shows and binge watching TV.  In other words, it was mocking itself in a very meta but pretty pleasing way.   It seems all of the voice actors are back, and the writers, I think this episode would have pleased everyone.  

Internal critic

I don't recall reading about Dr Allan Frances before - but he turned up on Radio National yesterday morning talking about his views on overdiagnosis of various psychiatric problems (ADHD in kids being one issue), and he sounded pretty convincing and sensible to my mind.   (One thing I did not know was that there is apparently a much greater proportion of the youngest kids in classes who get diagnosed with ADHD.  He thinks there is no other explanation for this other than kids who are too immature for the class  having worse behaviour, and it being turned into a medical problem.)  

The RN interview can be heard on the ABC website, but I don't know how long for.

His Wiki page indicates he has been running his arguments for a long time.  It would seem he is not being paid much attention, though...

  

Amateur science noted

Quite a charming article here at Science on how a 75 year old Japanese guy is one of the most prolific discoverers of supernova.  It starts:

For Koichi Itagaki, it was just another evening of supernova hunting. After his usual 7 p.m. dinner with his wife, he drove to his private observatory in the hills above his home in Yamagata, Japan, 290 kilometers north of Tokyo. He set out treats for the only visitors he allows on his celestial patrols: a stray cat he calls Nora and the raccoon dogs that warily approach from the surrounding forest. He then took a seat within his “headquarters,” a cozy hut equipped with a bed, minifridge, microwave—and a dozen monitors used to control seven telescopes at three locations across Japan.

On clear nights, each telescope runs through a routine, focusing on one of the approximately 1000 galaxies Itagaki monitors for two 15-second exposures before swiveling to the next target. On this night, clouds blanketed most of the country, leaving a clear view only for his two telescopes in Okayama, 700 kilometers to the southwest. But as the clock ticked into the early morning of 20 May, clouds drifted over Okayama, too. Itagaki called it a night and drove home, leaving the telescopes on automatic in case the weather cleared.

It did. The next morning he had scanned the night’s images for just 5 minutes when he spotted a new, bright object in a spiral arm of the Pinwheel galaxy, 21 million light-years away. “It was so bright, I thought there was no way this object could have been missed,” he says. To his surprise, he was the first to post the news to the Transient Name Server (TNS), the International Astronomical Union’s database of new celestial objects. As word spread on TNS and the Astronomer’s Telegram, an email alert service, professionals and amateurs alike began pointing their instruments toward SN 2023ixf, the universe’s newest exploding star and the closest to Earth in a decade. It was growing brighter by the minute....

Cheerful, friendly, and easy-going, Itagaki is a trim 75-year-old with wisps of white hair, wire-rimmed bifocals, and a self-effacing sense of humor. “I am not an astronomer,” Itagaki says, smiling broadly while waving his left hand dismissively, as if shooing away a fly. “I’m looking for new celestial bodies as a hobby.” He traces his path into astronomy to a boyhood fascination with lenses. “I used to play with lenses, using sunlight to burn paper,” he says. In junior high, he spent his allowance on a DIY telescope kit and studied the Moon a bit. “I also used it to spy on the neighbors,” he says, smiling and waving.

Then in 1963, a 19-year-old Japanese amateur named Kaoru Ikeya grabbed national headlines when he discovered a comet with a more substantial homemade telescope. “It amazed me that you could search the stars like this,” Itagaki says. Within Itagaki’s hut, a framed 1963 newspaper clipping of Ikeya’s achievement hangs in homage.

 The observatory set up indicates he's put a fair amount of money into his hobby:

 And this is just one of three he uses...

 

 

"Reading the room" is a concept unknown to her, apparently

 Update:  oh, that screenshot doesn't mention the key point:

The Republican congresswoman caused a firestorm when she mentioned snubbing her fiancé to make it to a prayer breakfast on time

“When I woke up this morning at seven,” Mace explained, “Patrick, my fiancé, tried to pull me by my waist over this morning in bed and I was like ‘no baby we don’t got time for that this morning, I’ve gotta get to the prayer breakfast.’”

“He can wait, I’ll see him later tonight,” she added. 

While the comment may have been a little TMI, conservative influencers reacted with wholehearted disgust. You see, Mace, 45, made the grave mistake of admitting that she, an adult woman, has a sex life outside of the confines of matrimony. A thing we’re 100 percent sure no other right-wing commentator has ever done. 

“That’s some hoe talk,” tweeted Florida Congressional candidate Lavern Spicer in response to a video of the moment. 

Nuclear rocketry back on the cards?

I'm pretty sure that Robert Heinlein's "juvenile" books (in particular Space Family Stone) were explicitly about solar system rocketry using nuclear reactor driven engines.   And NASA did NERVA research early on, but the idea lost momentum (as did the idea of rushing to Mars).   

It seems it might become a thing after all:

In less than three years, NASA could be testing a nuclear rocket in space.

The space agency and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, announced on Wednesday that Lockheed Martin had been selected to design, build and test a propulsion system that could one day speed astronauts on a trip to Mars....

“The technical capabilities, including early safety protocols, remain viable today,” Tabitha Dodson, the DRACO project manager, said in a news briefing on Wednesday.

A key difference between NERVA and DRACO is that NERVA used weapons-grade uranium for its reactors, while DRACO will use a less-enriched form of uranium.

The reactor would not be turned on until it reached space, part of the precautions to minimize the possibility of a radioactive accident on Earth.

There will be protests about the danger of one blowing up on the way to orbit, though.

The report also doesn't really make it clear why the idea has been revived...

Underwhelming witness

Do I have this right?  David Grusch says someone who knows and has first hand knowledge told him the government knows about lots of crashed UFOs and recovered stuff and bodies, but he hasn't seen it himself and can't go into further details?

Yeah, that really blows the lid right off the whole matter....

Update:  this Vox skeptical summary of the whole situation (which is not behind a paywall) seems about right.

Odd news from Japan

 These headlines caught my eye:

OK, let's take number 2 first:

The study covered prefectural residents aged 40 or older who underwent annual health checkups in the seven cities of Kaminoyama, Yamagata, Higashine, Sakata, Tendo, Yonezawa and Sagae. The subjects were studied for a maximum of nine years from 2009, with a median follow-up period of 7.1 years.

The subjects were asked if they had any interest in the opposite sex. They were also questioned about their medical history, use of medication, how often they laughed and mental stress levels.

The researchers studied the correlation between those factors and the risk of death.

They found that 8.3 percent of the roughly 7,700 male subjects and 16.1 percent of the 11,400 or so female subjects were not interested in the opposite sex. The team said 503 test subjects, 356 men and 147 women, died during the follow-up study.

Analysis of the data showed that 9.6 percent of the men who said they had no interest in the opposite sex died during the nine years. The death rate among men who said they were still sexually interested in women was 5.6 percent.

The researchers concluded the difference shows a significantly higher risk of death, even when discounting other factors, such as age and chronic illnesses.

The data on women indicated no correlation between their sexual interest and risk of death, the team members added.

I'm assuming that a significant part of this could be that the men with erectile dysfunction, which can indicate poor general health, are the ones with low interest in the opposite sex?   Or does the discounting of "chronic illness" account for that?   

Also, I continue to be very surprised that this story from last year did not really gain any widespread publicity:

And at the end of 2021, a group at Cleveland Clinic analyzed the insurance claims for more than 7 million Americans and found that people on Viagra were almost 70% less likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease than people who were not on the drug.

(It was already know to be pretty good for the heart, too.)

I would recommend that the Japanese get into prescribing it for "men with no interest in women".  :)

And as for the first story:  it sounds like a very weird true crime story -

SAPPORO--Police on July 24 arrested a woman and her father in connection with the discovery of a headless body in a hotel here three weeks ago.

Runa Tamura, 29, and her father Osamu, a 59-year-old doctor, were held on suspicion of damaging, abandoning and illegally possessing a body, police said.

Police believe the victim, a 62-year-old Hokkaido resident, was known to Runa, who lives in Sapporo.

The daughter and father pair are suspected of decapitating the man in a hotel in Sapporo’s Susukino entertainment district late on July 1 or early on July 2, the police said.

They are also suspected of taking the victim's head to another location. It remains missing.

The man died from a stab wound in the body. His head was apparently cut off after death, investigative sources said.

The victim’s body was naked. No clothing or belongings such as a cellphone or wallet were found.

There were no signs of a struggle in the hotel room, and the victim had no defense wounds, the sources said.

 What on earth was going on??

Must be China week here

Well, Paul Krugman's column (which I will generously gift link) is mainly about what happened to Japan, but it does refer to China too:

These days the focus of anxiety about global competition has shifted from Japan to China, which is a bona fide economic superpower: Adjusted for purchasing power, its economy is already bigger than ours. But China has seemed to be faltering lately, and some have been asking whether China’s future path might resemble that of Japan.

My answer is that it probably won’t — that China will do worse. But to understand why I say that, you need to know something about what happened to Japan, which wasn’t at all the catastrophe I think many people imagine.

Krugman's argument is that Japan's basic problem is its demography, and that it has done reasonably well, considering.

As usual, he's easy to understand and presents a reasonable argument.

It's a worry

Here's a very concerning post at Real Climate by Stefan Rahmstorf about the high uncertainty as to what is happening to Atlantic currents under climate change.

This should be read to add a lot of detail to news reports today about the latest study indicating that the AMOC might shut down much sooner than the IPCC thought likely.