Guardian Unlimited Books | News | How judge's secret Da Vinci code was cracked
Turns out the judge's encoded message was hardly worth de-coding. I was hoping it would be more pointed, like "the Plaintiff's claim is BS".
Friday, April 28, 2006
Thursday, April 27, 2006
Himeji Castle
Second on the list of "must see" buildings in Japan, as recommended to us by our Osaka friends, was Himeji Castle. Himeji is only 30 minutes away on the train, and its castle is indeed spectacular and extremely photogenic:
The view from the top of the tower:
The thing on the edge of the roof is a fish, added as a good luck charm against fire. Unfortunately, the guide said, it tended to attract lightning, so now there are lightning rods attached to them.
Even though much of the inside has been rebuilt, it is by Japanese standards (where fire, earthquake and war has made really old buildings rather uncommon) very authentic. We were lucky and had a free english speaking guide for 2 hours.
Once again, Wikepedia has a good entry about this. (Gosh: it says that it featured as the headquarters for the Japanese secret police in "You Only Live Twice", the first James Bond I ever saw.)
The view from the top of the tower:
The thing on the edge of the roof is a fish, added as a good luck charm against fire. Unfortunately, the guide said, it tended to attract lightning, so now there are lightning rods attached to them.
Even though much of the inside has been rebuilt, it is by Japanese standards (where fire, earthquake and war has made really old buildings rather uncommon) very authentic. We were lucky and had a free english speaking guide for 2 hours.
Once again, Wikepedia has a good entry about this. (Gosh: it says that it featured as the headquarters for the Japanese secret police in "You Only Live Twice", the first James Bond I ever saw.)
Calm down everyone
The oil industry | Steady as she goes | Economist.com
The above article is a detailed and relatively optimistic look at the "peak oil" issue from the Economist.
The only problem I see is that optimism probably helps delay research and development of oil replacements for transport, etc, which for many reasons would be better coming sooner rather than later.
The above article is a detailed and relatively optimistic look at the "peak oil" issue from the Economist.
The only problem I see is that optimism probably helps delay research and development of oil replacements for transport, etc, which for many reasons would be better coming sooner rather than later.
Wednesday, April 26, 2006
Some ideas on paternity fraud
Mendacious mums can't be let off lightly | Janet Albrechtsen | The Australian
I can't fault Janet's article today on the issue of paternity fraud.
Someone has suggested to her that maybe all births should be the subject of DNA testing. Wouldn't shares in the DNA test companies soar if ever that were seriously proposed!
Maybe some sort of compromise position is desirable: in the event of permanent separation with a view to divorce, then paternity testing is compulsory. The advantage of this is that the test is only done if the issue of child support is raised by the fact of separation. Currently, the Family Court is reluctant to order the mother and child to undergo testing unless the purported father has good reason to believe he is not the true father. Just having a feeling that the child might the result of (say) a suspected affair is definitely not enough.
This leaves many fathers forever suspicious of their ex-partners fidelity, and that does not help resolve issues such as property settlements which can sometimes drag on for years. Of course, some fathers may have completely ill founded suspicions, and the mother should achieve some vindication by having it proved that he is the father.
The more I think about it the better the idea sounds. Maybe some further refinements could be made: the father in any event is not allowed to recover the monies paid prior to separation towards raising the child. (If he has suspicions of infidelity during the marriage, he could ask the mother to undergo testing. If she refuses, he could always force the issue by leaving her and then the legislative requirement kicks in anyway.)
The idea might also encourage fidelity on both sides of the marriage. Husbands who have affairs with other men's wive's might be more cautious about it if it is certain that their paternity will be proved if their lover ever separates from their partner.
I don't know what the error rate of such tests is, but there should be provision to allow a party to require a repeat test by another lab if the first comes in as a big surprise.
If you think this is a good idea, write to your member of parliament, and also buys shares in a test company.
I can't fault Janet's article today on the issue of paternity fraud.
Someone has suggested to her that maybe all births should be the subject of DNA testing. Wouldn't shares in the DNA test companies soar if ever that were seriously proposed!
Maybe some sort of compromise position is desirable: in the event of permanent separation with a view to divorce, then paternity testing is compulsory. The advantage of this is that the test is only done if the issue of child support is raised by the fact of separation. Currently, the Family Court is reluctant to order the mother and child to undergo testing unless the purported father has good reason to believe he is not the true father. Just having a feeling that the child might the result of (say) a suspected affair is definitely not enough.
This leaves many fathers forever suspicious of their ex-partners fidelity, and that does not help resolve issues such as property settlements which can sometimes drag on for years. Of course, some fathers may have completely ill founded suspicions, and the mother should achieve some vindication by having it proved that he is the father.
The more I think about it the better the idea sounds. Maybe some further refinements could be made: the father in any event is not allowed to recover the monies paid prior to separation towards raising the child. (If he has suspicions of infidelity during the marriage, he could ask the mother to undergo testing. If she refuses, he could always force the issue by leaving her and then the legislative requirement kicks in anyway.)
The idea might also encourage fidelity on both sides of the marriage. Husbands who have affairs with other men's wive's might be more cautious about it if it is certain that their paternity will be proved if their lover ever separates from their partner.
I don't know what the error rate of such tests is, but there should be provision to allow a party to require a repeat test by another lab if the first comes in as a big surprise.
If you think this is a good idea, write to your member of parliament, and also buys shares in a test company.
Albanese on Nuclear
Twenty years on: lest we forget the lessons from Chernobyl - Opinion
It would seem that Labor's environment spokesman feels that no changes to Labor's blanket anti-nuclear policies are in the wind. His article above says that the Chernobyl disaster:
"...showed the world that nuclear power was not safe..."
And I suppose that the tens of thousands killed in the process of coal mining shows that it is safer? Comparing known decrepit Russian reactors with state of the art (or newer designs) is a bit of a stretch.
I have no fixed opinion on nuclear power, in that I am skeptical of the extremes on either side of the argument about its use. However, there is work being done on reactor designs which are inherently safer (see articles about pebble bed reactors and using thorium here and here) and these should be investigated by governments as a matter of priority.
Seems that wouldn't happen under Labor though, because nuclear is evil.
It would seem that Labor's environment spokesman feels that no changes to Labor's blanket anti-nuclear policies are in the wind. His article above says that the Chernobyl disaster:
"...showed the world that nuclear power was not safe..."
And I suppose that the tens of thousands killed in the process of coal mining shows that it is safer? Comparing known decrepit Russian reactors with state of the art (or newer designs) is a bit of a stretch.
I have no fixed opinion on nuclear power, in that I am skeptical of the extremes on either side of the argument about its use. However, there is work being done on reactor designs which are inherently safer (see articles about pebble bed reactors and using thorium here and here) and these should be investigated by governments as a matter of priority.
Seems that wouldn't happen under Labor though, because nuclear is evil.
Sunday, April 23, 2006
Geography and global climate
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Fossil gives clue to big chill
The above article points out that the disconnection of South America from Antartica some 41 million years ago is believed to have played (and still play) a very large part in the global climate:
The world was a very different place then. Levels of carbon dioxide were three to four times today's levels and it was so warm that alligators sunned themselves in the high Arctic.
But some 30 million years ago, there was a dramatic shift in climate from "greenhouse" to "icehouse".
The rapid cooling swept over the Antarctic and, over the course of several million years, its pine trees were replaced by glaciers.
Interesting. Global warming is obviously good for alligators and pine trees. Pity polar bears and penguins are so cute.
The above article points out that the disconnection of South America from Antartica some 41 million years ago is believed to have played (and still play) a very large part in the global climate:
The world was a very different place then. Levels of carbon dioxide were three to four times today's levels and it was so warm that alligators sunned themselves in the high Arctic.
But some 30 million years ago, there was a dramatic shift in climate from "greenhouse" to "icehouse".
The rapid cooling swept over the Antarctic and, over the course of several million years, its pine trees were replaced by glaciers.
Interesting. Global warming is obviously good for alligators and pine trees. Pity polar bears and penguins are so cute.
Paging Dr Skippy
In further medical news, the SMH also reports this weekend that a new promising antibiotic compound has been found in - of all places - wallaby milk.
"What's that Skip? You want this man in septic shock to put his head in your pouch? Are you sure?"
"What's that Skip? You want this man in septic shock to put his head in your pouch? Are you sure?"
Aquarium blues
Cats are given a hard time in this blog; now it's the goldfish's turn.
The SMH reports that a drug resistant strain of salmonella has been proved (by Australian research no less) to live in fish tanks:
Australian researchers proved the link between gastroenteritis and fish tanks by showing that the strains of salmonella in patients and in their home aquariums were genetically identical.
Diane Lightfoot, a salmonella specialist at the University of Melbourne..said the study highlighted the need for care when cleaning tanks.
Fish were good pets, she said, "and fish tanks aren't to be feared. But commonsense hygiene is needed." This included washing hands after touching the water or gravel and making sure the water did not splash onto surfaces where it could contaminate food, she said.
To be fair to goldfish, the article does only refer to "tropical" fish, so maybe an unheated tank of the kind most goldfish have to put up with is not such a risk.
The SMH reports that a drug resistant strain of salmonella has been proved (by Australian research no less) to live in fish tanks:
Australian researchers proved the link between gastroenteritis and fish tanks by showing that the strains of salmonella in patients and in their home aquariums were genetically identical.
Diane Lightfoot, a salmonella specialist at the University of Melbourne..said the study highlighted the need for care when cleaning tanks.
Fish were good pets, she said, "and fish tanks aren't to be feared. But commonsense hygiene is needed." This included washing hands after touching the water or gravel and making sure the water did not splash onto surfaces where it could contaminate food, she said.
To be fair to goldfish, the article does only refer to "tropical" fish, so maybe an unheated tank of the kind most goldfish have to put up with is not such a risk.
Saturday, April 22, 2006
Little publicity expected
ScienceDaily: Ancient And Modern Evidence Suggests Limits To Future Global Warming
The above story is 2 pronged. The study indicates that global warming due to greenhouse gases is definitely real, but the models also indicated that the "worst case" temperature rises are less likely than previously estimated.
As it contains this semi-optimistic estimate on the temperature rises, will it attract any media attention?
Here's another article that contains some moderately good news on 2 aspects of the global warming issue. As Real Climate has not attacked it yet, I am guessing that it is not controversial.
The above story is 2 pronged. The study indicates that global warming due to greenhouse gases is definitely real, but the models also indicated that the "worst case" temperature rises are less likely than previously estimated.
As it contains this semi-optimistic estimate on the temperature rises, will it attract any media attention?
Here's another article that contains some moderately good news on 2 aspects of the global warming issue. As Real Climate has not attacked it yet, I am guessing that it is not controversial.
On liberal churches
The New Yorker: Online Only: Content
Strange that the New Yorker contains a fairly conservative assessment of what is going on in the Episcopal Church, and Anglicanism more generally. This part rings particularly true:
The liberal, mainline churches are losing parishioners across the board. The conservative churches are not only growing but growing by leaps and bounds. To me, the reason seems obvious: if you’re shopping for faith, faith is the thing you want, not a watered-down version of a civics lesson. That’s not to say that the evangelical or more orthodox view is just a marketing tool, but people who get up on Sunday morning and say “I think I’ll go to church today” tend to want the genuine article, rather than a speculative “maybe it’s true, maybe it’s not true, we’re all on this journey together” exploration. Because it’s a lot easier, frankly, to stay in bed and get up in time for the first football game.
I believe that the most liberal and outright politically active Catholic church in Brisbane (St Mary's at South Brisbane) has a large number turn up for Sunday masses. But I think this is because it attracts disenchanted left-y Catholics from all over the city.
That parish has hosted a (secular) gay choir, been rapped over the knuckles for changes to the baptism rite, and featured street facing anti-John Howard signs erected on church grounds. Irritates me no end...
Strange that the New Yorker contains a fairly conservative assessment of what is going on in the Episcopal Church, and Anglicanism more generally. This part rings particularly true:
The liberal, mainline churches are losing parishioners across the board. The conservative churches are not only growing but growing by leaps and bounds. To me, the reason seems obvious: if you’re shopping for faith, faith is the thing you want, not a watered-down version of a civics lesson. That’s not to say that the evangelical or more orthodox view is just a marketing tool, but people who get up on Sunday morning and say “I think I’ll go to church today” tend to want the genuine article, rather than a speculative “maybe it’s true, maybe it’s not true, we’re all on this journey together” exploration. Because it’s a lot easier, frankly, to stay in bed and get up in time for the first football game.
I believe that the most liberal and outright politically active Catholic church in Brisbane (St Mary's at South Brisbane) has a large number turn up for Sunday masses. But I think this is because it attracts disenchanted left-y Catholics from all over the city.
That parish has hosted a (secular) gay choir, been rapped over the knuckles for changes to the baptism rite, and featured street facing anti-John Howard signs erected on church grounds. Irritates me no end...
Friday, April 21, 2006
Science gives a tick to globalisation?
Does Globalization Help or Hurt the World's Poor?
This is really interesting. Scientific American (above) has a free article available on the effect of globalisation on the poor.
The article criticises both free trade and anti-globalisation activists for claiming too much for their own side of the argument. However, it seems to me to contain much more comment and information that is "pro" globalisation rather than "anti".
The point about antiglobalisation is also that it is not just a school within a group of economists who hold this debate; it is a "popular" movement as well which brings a heap of (often) nihilistic, irrational and "let's bite the hand that feeds me" attitude that is very hard to stomach. Globalisation can have bad effects, is not the sole reason for some countries' improvement, and local governments have their role to play in regulating it too. But to deem it as fundamentally evil, as anti globalisation protesters are inclined to do, is just silly. It seems well established that if the protesters completely got their way, they would hurt the people they claim to be wanting to protect.
Anyone, it would seem that such protests have reached their zenith and may dwindle further. Good.
Enough of my mini-rant. Read the article.
This is really interesting. Scientific American (above) has a free article available on the effect of globalisation on the poor.
The article criticises both free trade and anti-globalisation activists for claiming too much for their own side of the argument. However, it seems to me to contain much more comment and information that is "pro" globalisation rather than "anti".
The point about antiglobalisation is also that it is not just a school within a group of economists who hold this debate; it is a "popular" movement as well which brings a heap of (often) nihilistic, irrational and "let's bite the hand that feeds me" attitude that is very hard to stomach. Globalisation can have bad effects, is not the sole reason for some countries' improvement, and local governments have their role to play in regulating it too. But to deem it as fundamentally evil, as anti globalisation protesters are inclined to do, is just silly. It seems well established that if the protesters completely got their way, they would hurt the people they claim to be wanting to protect.
Anyone, it would seem that such protests have reached their zenith and may dwindle further. Good.
Enough of my mini-rant. Read the article.
Dershowitz on Moussaoui
The abuse excuse. By Alan M. Dershowitz
See above for an interesting Slate article on the use and misuse of "diminished moral culpability" arguments in the American criminal system. Alan Dershowitz can write unusually clearly and succinctly for a lawyer.
See above for an interesting Slate article on the use and misuse of "diminished moral culpability" arguments in the American criminal system. Alan Dershowitz can write unusually clearly and succinctly for a lawyer.
Thursday, April 20, 2006
One less thing to worry about
ScienceDaily: Deadly Astronomical Event Not Likely To Happen In Our Galaxy, Study Finds
Seems death of most life on earth by an unexpected gamma ray burst (GRB) from a nearby star is rather unlikely;
The astronomers determined that the odds of a GRB occurring in a galaxy like that one to be approximately 0.15 percent. And the Milky Way's metal content is twice as high as that galaxy, so our odds of ever having a GRB would be even lower than 0.15 percent.
"We didn't bother to compute the odds for our galaxy, because 0.15 percent seemed low enough," Stanek said.
He figures that most people weren't losing sleep over the possibility of an Earth-annihilating GRB. "I wouldn't expect the stock market to go up as a result of this news, either," he said. "But there are a lot of people who have wondered whether GRBs could be blamed for mass extinctions early in Earth's history, and our work suggests that this is not the case."
Seems death of most life on earth by an unexpected gamma ray burst (GRB) from a nearby star is rather unlikely;
The astronomers determined that the odds of a GRB occurring in a galaxy like that one to be approximately 0.15 percent. And the Milky Way's metal content is twice as high as that galaxy, so our odds of ever having a GRB would be even lower than 0.15 percent.
"We didn't bother to compute the odds for our galaxy, because 0.15 percent seemed low enough," Stanek said.
He figures that most people weren't losing sleep over the possibility of an Earth-annihilating GRB. "I wouldn't expect the stock market to go up as a result of this news, either," he said. "But there are a lot of people who have wondered whether GRBs could be blamed for mass extinctions early in Earth's history, and our work suggests that this is not the case."
How palestinians encourage peace in their time
This is a terrible story:
As far as the Abu al-Hawa family is concerned, the sale of two floors of their home on Jerusalem’s Mount of Olives was perfectly legitimate.
Mohamed Abu al-Hawa sold the real estate to a Palestinian businessman nearly a year ago, his brother Mahmoud says, earning $650,000. The money was used to buy another home on the Mount of Olives, a cherished spot overlooking Jerusalem’s Old City.
But last week Mohamed’s bullet-riddled body was found lying next to his burnt-out car on a road near Jericho. Branded a traitor for selling his property to Jews, he had been shot seven times, including once in the temple, Mahmoud said.
A detailed commentary piece on this is in the Jerusalem Post, and is well worth reading in full for its eye-opening account of this practice:
Muhammad Abu al-Hawa was buried in a makeshift cemetery on the road between Jerusalem where he lived, and Jericho where he was murdered. His body was buried there because the Palestinian Authority's mufti in Jerusalem, Ikremah Sabri, has barred all Muslims accused of selling land to Jews from being buried in a Muslim cemetery....
SINCE 1994, dozens of Arab Israelis and PA residents have been murdered on suspicion of selling land to Jews...
According to Palestinians and to Jews involved in purchasing lands from Palestinians, in the majority of cases, the Arabs murdered for the "crime" of selling land to Jews never sold land to Jews. At most they were "guilty" of having ties of friendship or commerce with Israelis. The fact that merely having relations with Jews can expose an Arab to allegations of collaboration is enough to convince most Palestinians that they shouldn't have anything to do with Israel or Israelis. So by murdering people like Abu al-Hawa, the Palestinian leadership ensures that Palestinians will be too afraid of being killed to risk peaceful coexistence with Israel.
So, not only is random terrorism against civilian Jews the only problem, they are prepared to kill their own to help delay forever any hope of peaceful co-existence.
As far as the Abu al-Hawa family is concerned, the sale of two floors of their home on Jerusalem’s Mount of Olives was perfectly legitimate.
Mohamed Abu al-Hawa sold the real estate to a Palestinian businessman nearly a year ago, his brother Mahmoud says, earning $650,000. The money was used to buy another home on the Mount of Olives, a cherished spot overlooking Jerusalem’s Old City.
But last week Mohamed’s bullet-riddled body was found lying next to his burnt-out car on a road near Jericho. Branded a traitor for selling his property to Jews, he had been shot seven times, including once in the temple, Mahmoud said.
A detailed commentary piece on this is in the Jerusalem Post, and is well worth reading in full for its eye-opening account of this practice:
Muhammad Abu al-Hawa was buried in a makeshift cemetery on the road between Jerusalem where he lived, and Jericho where he was murdered. His body was buried there because the Palestinian Authority's mufti in Jerusalem, Ikremah Sabri, has barred all Muslims accused of selling land to Jews from being buried in a Muslim cemetery....
SINCE 1994, dozens of Arab Israelis and PA residents have been murdered on suspicion of selling land to Jews...
According to Palestinians and to Jews involved in purchasing lands from Palestinians, in the majority of cases, the Arabs murdered for the "crime" of selling land to Jews never sold land to Jews. At most they were "guilty" of having ties of friendship or commerce with Israelis. The fact that merely having relations with Jews can expose an Arab to allegations of collaboration is enough to convince most Palestinians that they shouldn't have anything to do with Israel or Israelis. So by murdering people like Abu al-Hawa, the Palestinian leadership ensures that Palestinians will be too afraid of being killed to risk peaceful coexistence with Israel.
So, not only is random terrorism against civilian Jews the only problem, they are prepared to kill their own to help delay forever any hope of peaceful co-existence.
Put this low on your tourist sites list for Japan
The Japan Times Online
From the above story:
Part of a jumbo jet's broken tail fin, crushed seats and a flight data recorder that detailed how JAL Flight 123 crashed into a mountain on Aug. 12, 1985, are among the items on display at the Safety Promotion Center of Japan Airlines Corp., which opened Wednesday for a media preview.
Located in Ota Ward, Tokyo, near Haneda airport, the center exhibits components from the crippled Boeing 747 that crashed into Mount Osutaka in Gunma Prefecture, leaving 520 passengers and crew members dead in the worst single-plane accident in history.
The facility will open to the public next Monday with the aim of promoting aviation safety awareness among the public. It will also be used for employee education and training at a time when JAL has been hit by a spate of safety problems.
Would seeing this really convince the public that JAL is taking safety seriously now?
From the above story:
Part of a jumbo jet's broken tail fin, crushed seats and a flight data recorder that detailed how JAL Flight 123 crashed into a mountain on Aug. 12, 1985, are among the items on display at the Safety Promotion Center of Japan Airlines Corp., which opened Wednesday for a media preview.
Located in Ota Ward, Tokyo, near Haneda airport, the center exhibits components from the crippled Boeing 747 that crashed into Mount Osutaka in Gunma Prefecture, leaving 520 passengers and crew members dead in the worst single-plane accident in history.
The facility will open to the public next Monday with the aim of promoting aviation safety awareness among the public. It will also be used for employee education and training at a time when JAL has been hit by a spate of safety problems.
Would seeing this really convince the public that JAL is taking safety seriously now?
I am?
The rise of the blogger - theage.com.au
Bloggers and internet pundits are exerting a "disproportionately large influence" on society, a report by technology researchers says.
Bloggers and internet pundits are exerting a "disproportionately large influence" on society, a report by technology researchers says.
Back on dreaming..
A few posts back I explained my recurring "proof of flying" dream. One thing I forgot to mention in the post is that often in this dream, the reason I think people won't believe that I can fly is because they will think it is just my dream. I am therefore dreaming about how to disprove that I am currently in a dream. I think in some versions, it is simply that I want to prove it to myself.
I think this raises the "oddness"factor of the dream quite a bit, and I should have mentioned it before.
Also, how's this for a slightly odd co-incidence (although hardly one of high Jungian significance.) While on the aircraft flying into Brisbane on Monday morning, after a night of virtually no sleep, for no obvious reason the chorus of "My old man's a dustman" came to mind. That's odd, I thought, why would looking out on Moreton Bay bring that far from frequently heard chorus to mind.
On the taxi ride from the airport, the driver had some obscure radio show on that opened with the "Run rabbit" song (used for years now in that slightly creepy Victorian tourist ad) and I thought "wouldn't it be odd if 'My old man...' comes on during this show." It didn't.
Then last night, while watching "Dusty", the doco series on the ABC about staging the musical in Melbourne, they showed a scene from the show that I think was meant to be Dusty Springfield's parents (the scene may have been cut from the final version) and it ended with the chorus of "My old man's a dustman." Just for a very short time before they cut to something else.
This Dusty TV show has been on for some weeks, and I had seen a very small amount of the first couple of episodes before I went on holidays. I suppose that if it had earlier featured a snippet of that song, that may well explain it. But as I think this is a far from crucial bit of music in the stage show, that explanation seems unlikely.
However, if a sleep deprived brain can tune into an uncommon song from 36 hours in the future, why can't it tune into next weeks lotto numbers instead?
The other explanation is that I am having a very silly dream cycle. If so, I hope it will become more significant soon.
By the way, my old man was not a dustman.
I think this raises the "oddness"factor of the dream quite a bit, and I should have mentioned it before.
Also, how's this for a slightly odd co-incidence (although hardly one of high Jungian significance.) While on the aircraft flying into Brisbane on Monday morning, after a night of virtually no sleep, for no obvious reason the chorus of "My old man's a dustman" came to mind. That's odd, I thought, why would looking out on Moreton Bay bring that far from frequently heard chorus to mind.
On the taxi ride from the airport, the driver had some obscure radio show on that opened with the "Run rabbit" song (used for years now in that slightly creepy Victorian tourist ad) and I thought "wouldn't it be odd if 'My old man...' comes on during this show." It didn't.
Then last night, while watching "Dusty", the doco series on the ABC about staging the musical in Melbourne, they showed a scene from the show that I think was meant to be Dusty Springfield's parents (the scene may have been cut from the final version) and it ended with the chorus of "My old man's a dustman." Just for a very short time before they cut to something else.
This Dusty TV show has been on for some weeks, and I had seen a very small amount of the first couple of episodes before I went on holidays. I suppose that if it had earlier featured a snippet of that song, that may well explain it. But as I think this is a far from crucial bit of music in the stage show, that explanation seems unlikely.
However, if a sleep deprived brain can tune into an uncommon song from 36 hours in the future, why can't it tune into next weeks lotto numbers instead?
The other explanation is that I am having a very silly dream cycle. If so, I hope it will become more significant soon.
By the way, my old man was not a dustman.
Global warming causes great falling chunks of ice?
Falling ice perplexes scientists / Theories abound after 2 chunks land in state in a week
Here's an interesting story from California about two recent unexplained ice falls there.
People who read Fortean stuff know that this phenomena has been around for a long time. Even so, someone in the article still manages to speculate that global warming has something to do with it.
Apparently, some climatologists have coined a good name for these:
Lead author Jesus Martinez-Frias of the Planetary Geology Laboratory in Madrid and his colleagues have collected reports of 40 cases around the world since 1999 of puzzling falling ice, or "megacryometeors," as they call the strange objects.
Try slipping that casually into a conversation today.
Here's an interesting story from California about two recent unexplained ice falls there.
People who read Fortean stuff know that this phenomena has been around for a long time. Even so, someone in the article still manages to speculate that global warming has something to do with it.
Apparently, some climatologists have coined a good name for these:
Lead author Jesus Martinez-Frias of the Planetary Geology Laboratory in Madrid and his colleagues have collected reports of 40 cases around the world since 1999 of puzzling falling ice, or "megacryometeors," as they call the strange objects.
Try slipping that casually into a conversation today.
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
In Kyoto
Time for some photos from Kyoto from about 8 days ago.
These are all around the very beautiful Kiyomizu temple. Our friend who now lives in Osaka places this temple amongst his "top 3" things to see in Japan. Good call I think.
It was a rainy day, so there is no happy blue sky in these photos. There were still lots of cherry blossoms out, though, and they look good in any light.
First pic is at the entrance:
Next is looking at the balcony of the main temple building. It costs a few dollars to get in, but it is the most spectacular location (that's Kyoto in the background):
The outlook from that balcony (looking to the left in the above picture) is like this:
A pathway winds through those trees, but given the weather (and the company of several small children) we did not walk it.
Here's another building in the temple complex:
Wikipedia has a short but interesting little entry about this temple, for those who would like more information.
We only had one day in Kyoto, which was a pity, but it is always good to know which places you would like to re-visit and see properly.
[For some mildly geeky stuff now: all the photos are from a fairly basic 4 megapixel Sony Cybershot camera, which seems to perform quite well, even though I have never finished reading the manual and mainly leave it in "auto" mode. This trip, however, being in cold weather, did result in a high turnover in alkaline batteries - and this is in a camera that is promoted as having long battery life. Living in Brisbane, I had never realised how much the cold weather affects them.
While it seemed to me this trip that the price difference between Australia and Japan for computer stuff was somewhat less than in past visits, one thing that still seems very substantially cheaper there is camera flash memory. A 1GB Memory Stick Pro could be had for about $105, which seems awfully cheap.]
These are all around the very beautiful Kiyomizu temple. Our friend who now lives in Osaka places this temple amongst his "top 3" things to see in Japan. Good call I think.
It was a rainy day, so there is no happy blue sky in these photos. There were still lots of cherry blossoms out, though, and they look good in any light.
First pic is at the entrance:
Next is looking at the balcony of the main temple building. It costs a few dollars to get in, but it is the most spectacular location (that's Kyoto in the background):
The outlook from that balcony (looking to the left in the above picture) is like this:
A pathway winds through those trees, but given the weather (and the company of several small children) we did not walk it.
Here's another building in the temple complex:
Wikipedia has a short but interesting little entry about this temple, for those who would like more information.
We only had one day in Kyoto, which was a pity, but it is always good to know which places you would like to re-visit and see properly.
[For some mildly geeky stuff now: all the photos are from a fairly basic 4 megapixel Sony Cybershot camera, which seems to perform quite well, even though I have never finished reading the manual and mainly leave it in "auto" mode. This trip, however, being in cold weather, did result in a high turnover in alkaline batteries - and this is in a camera that is promoted as having long battery life. Living in Brisbane, I had never realised how much the cold weather affects them.
While it seemed to me this trip that the price difference between Australia and Japan for computer stuff was somewhat less than in past visits, one thing that still seems very substantially cheaper there is camera flash memory. A 1GB Memory Stick Pro could be had for about $105, which seems awfully cheap.]
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Some detail on Francis Fukuyama's position on Iraq
Why shouldn't I change my mind? - Los Angeles Times
See the above article where Fukuyama responds to some of the criticism of him for having allegedly jumped ship on Iraq. But as Philip Adams now cites Fukuyama with approval (see today's over-the-top column in the Australian), it is well worth reading Fukuyama's recent article to see that his position is not as anti-Bush as Adams might like to portray:
In my view, no one should be required to apologize for having supported intervention in Iraq before the war. There were important competing moral goods on both sides of the argument, something that many on the left still refuse to recognize. The U.N. in 1999 declared that all nations have a positive "duty to protect, promote and implement" human rights, arguing in effect that the world's powerful countries are complicit in human rights abuses if they don't use their power to correct injustices. The debate over the war shouldn't have been whether it was morally right to topple Hussein (which it clearly was), but whether it was prudent to do so given the possible costs and potential consequences of intervention and whether it was legitimate for the U.S. to invade in the unilateral way that it did.
It was perfectly honorable to agonize over the wisdom of the war, and in many ways admirable that people on the left, such as Christopher Hitchens, George Packer, Michael Ignatieff and Jacob Weisberg, supported intervention. That position was much easier to defend in early 2003, however, before we found absolutely no stocks of chemical or biological weapons and no evidence of an ongoing nuclear weapons program. (I know that many on the left believe that the prewar estimates about Hussein's weapons of mass destruction were all a deliberate fraud by the Bush administration, but if so, it was one in which the U.N. weapons inspectors and French intelligence were also complicit.) It was also easier to support the war before we knew the full dimensions of the vicious insurgency that would emerge and the ease with which the insurgents could disrupt the building of a democratic state.
Overall, the article is not badly argued.
I agree strongly that it was always clear that the decision to invade was a difficult one that had to be made by balancing quite a few pros and cons. (Of course, many of the possible "cons" cited by the antiwar movement, such as fierce resistance by the Iraqi army, never materialised.) Given the nature of the decision, one had to respect those who felt that, on balance, it was better not to invade.
However, the anti-war movement does not give the same respect to those on the other side, and by and large still refuses to grant that there was any legitimate moral or practical motive for the decision. (This despite increasing documentary and other evidence that Saddam was co-operative with Islamic terrorism, the sanctions regime was not working except for his benefit, and of course the many, many citizens killed by Saddam's regime.) This is where those like Hitchens loses patience with the anti-war movement, and deservedly so.
If the invasion has taken longer than expected to result in anything like good government, this should not be grounds for gloating by the Left. That the problems of how democracy can be made to work is attracting new attention is understandable, but it was never going to be easy. Criticism of how the post invasion was handled is legitimate, but some caution needs to be exercised even there least it it fuels the very problems the critics raise.
I remain, like Tim Blair (see his Continuing Crisis column from a couple of weeks ago) a cautious optimist on the long term outcome in Iraq. But there is no doubt that the current stalemate there tests that optimism much more than I would like.
See the above article where Fukuyama responds to some of the criticism of him for having allegedly jumped ship on Iraq. But as Philip Adams now cites Fukuyama with approval (see today's over-the-top column in the Australian), it is well worth reading Fukuyama's recent article to see that his position is not as anti-Bush as Adams might like to portray:
In my view, no one should be required to apologize for having supported intervention in Iraq before the war. There were important competing moral goods on both sides of the argument, something that many on the left still refuse to recognize. The U.N. in 1999 declared that all nations have a positive "duty to protect, promote and implement" human rights, arguing in effect that the world's powerful countries are complicit in human rights abuses if they don't use their power to correct injustices. The debate over the war shouldn't have been whether it was morally right to topple Hussein (which it clearly was), but whether it was prudent to do so given the possible costs and potential consequences of intervention and whether it was legitimate for the U.S. to invade in the unilateral way that it did.
It was perfectly honorable to agonize over the wisdom of the war, and in many ways admirable that people on the left, such as Christopher Hitchens, George Packer, Michael Ignatieff and Jacob Weisberg, supported intervention. That position was much easier to defend in early 2003, however, before we found absolutely no stocks of chemical or biological weapons and no evidence of an ongoing nuclear weapons program. (I know that many on the left believe that the prewar estimates about Hussein's weapons of mass destruction were all a deliberate fraud by the Bush administration, but if so, it was one in which the U.N. weapons inspectors and French intelligence were also complicit.) It was also easier to support the war before we knew the full dimensions of the vicious insurgency that would emerge and the ease with which the insurgents could disrupt the building of a democratic state.
Overall, the article is not badly argued.
I agree strongly that it was always clear that the decision to invade was a difficult one that had to be made by balancing quite a few pros and cons. (Of course, many of the possible "cons" cited by the antiwar movement, such as fierce resistance by the Iraqi army, never materialised.) Given the nature of the decision, one had to respect those who felt that, on balance, it was better not to invade.
However, the anti-war movement does not give the same respect to those on the other side, and by and large still refuses to grant that there was any legitimate moral or practical motive for the decision. (This despite increasing documentary and other evidence that Saddam was co-operative with Islamic terrorism, the sanctions regime was not working except for his benefit, and of course the many, many citizens killed by Saddam's regime.) This is where those like Hitchens loses patience with the anti-war movement, and deservedly so.
If the invasion has taken longer than expected to result in anything like good government, this should not be grounds for gloating by the Left. That the problems of how democracy can be made to work is attracting new attention is understandable, but it was never going to be easy. Criticism of how the post invasion was handled is legitimate, but some caution needs to be exercised even there least it it fuels the very problems the critics raise.
I remain, like Tim Blair (see his Continuing Crisis column from a couple of weeks ago) a cautious optimist on the long term outcome in Iraq. But there is no doubt that the current stalemate there tests that optimism much more than I would like.
Monday, April 17, 2006
An example for Kim Beazley to follow?
Reuters Business Channel | Reuters.com
The above story was reported in Japan while I was there, and is rather odd:
A French lawmaker, rushed to hospital on Friday the 39th day of a hunger strike, gave up his protest after a Japanese firm abandoned plans to close a factory in his area following a deal with the government.
Centrist deputy Jean Lassalle lost more than 20 kilograms in his battle to save 147 jobs in a factory owned by Japan's Toyal Aluminium in Accous, a town in his constituency in southwestern France.
"I feel at peace now ... For a long time now I haven't felt like I've done anything as useful," an exhausted Lassalle said during a rambling news conference at a hospital outside Paris. ...
Another triumph for French rationality!
Maybe this was the way they could have prevented the Iraq war. Chirac and all other politicians could have starved their way into convincing Bush.
Anyway, Beazley won't be endorsing this as a political method - [you can see it coming, but what the hey] - he'd have to starve at least twice as long to get results.
The above story was reported in Japan while I was there, and is rather odd:
A French lawmaker, rushed to hospital on Friday the 39th day of a hunger strike, gave up his protest after a Japanese firm abandoned plans to close a factory in his area following a deal with the government.
Centrist deputy Jean Lassalle lost more than 20 kilograms in his battle to save 147 jobs in a factory owned by Japan's Toyal Aluminium in Accous, a town in his constituency in southwestern France.
"I feel at peace now ... For a long time now I haven't felt like I've done anything as useful," an exhausted Lassalle said during a rambling news conference at a hospital outside Paris. ...
Another triumph for French rationality!
Maybe this was the way they could have prevented the Iraq war. Chirac and all other politicians could have starved their way into convincing Bush.
Anyway, Beazley won't be endorsing this as a political method - [you can see it coming, but what the hey] - he'd have to starve at least twice as long to get results.
On cherry blossoms - and other things - in Japan
A couple of weekends ago, cherry blossoms were in peak bloom in Tokyo's Ueno Park, which is pretty much sakura central for Tokyo residents. Just a few locals joined my family and me for a stroll:
The cherry blossom viewing for many people involves claiming a patch of ground with the ubiquitous blue tarp and having food, :
and a drink, or ten:
(I am not sure if he is in his underwear or his speedos. In any event, I reckon it was about 10 to 12 degrees at the time of the photo.)
Cherry blossoms are very pretty, and the weather forecast on TV each night shows where the cherry blossom "front" is over the whole country. (Naturally, the trees in the more northern and colder parts of Japan start flowering later than those to the warmer south.) More information on sakura trees is, as usual, at Wikipedia. (One thing they don't mention is that a spring time treat is a mochi rice sweet that comes wrapped in a sort of pickled sakura tree leaf. I can only imagine that someone centuries ago must have been really hungry to think about how to make these tree leaves edible.)
Ueno Park also has a smallish zoo, but the throng of people there on this visit made it impossible to get good photos. People are herded particularly quickly past the panda bear enclosure, and I had but a glimpse of a reclining black and white body.
By the way, as global warming would have it, Japan's winter this year was (I am told) particularly cold and snowy. Unexpectedly, I ran into snow into the northern part of Honshu only about 10 days ago. This was the scene outside the onsen hotel after a night of gentle snow:
Damn pretty, hey. (This is a good time to note that my problem with Melbourne winters is not that the minimum temperature is so low - the suburbs in Brisbane often have lower overnight temperatures - it's just that Melbourne suffers from a seemingly interminable number of grey, wet, cool to cold days without ever having the off-setting prettiness of snow.)
Onsen are the Japanese hot spring baths, and most are attached to hotels or inns (ryokan) with Japanese style rooms. Wikipedia has a good summary about them here.
Maybe most people have seen these over the years on the travel shows, but I am in a sharing mood:
This is the washing area next to the bath itself. You sit on the stools and use the shower or basin to wash yourself before getting in the bath, which in my case looked like this:
This is actually the outside bath, as you can see from the snow in the background. The temperature of the water is usually so high that sitting in it with your head and shoulders in the snowy air is pleasant. (Well, if you splash a bit of water on your shoulders every minute or so.)
There was no one around when I took these photos. They are nearly all gender segregated anyway, although that may not stop a cleaning woman being around if you are having a morning bath!
I can tell you that an absolutely essential part of all Japanese TV shows about travel within the country is the scene in which the host is sitting in the local onsen bath, quickly followed by a discussion of the local area's specialty food. (With host tasting it and saying in an exaggerated way "oishi" or "umai", meaning "delicious".)
The Japanese style room will look something like this (insert your own close relative, you can't have mine):
No beds, just futons laid out on the tatami floor in the evening for sleep. Most onsen hotels will include a very nice dinner served in the room with lots of little dishes. This one we stayed at was a "public" onsen, which is cheaper and did not have this option. However, the food served in the dining room smorgasbord style (Japanese call it "viking style", which I find kinda funny) was still very good.
Oh well, I need to catch up on some sleep. More travelogues to come.
(And, just in case you don't realise it yet, clicking on the photos above bring up enlarged versions.)
The cherry blossom viewing for many people involves claiming a patch of ground with the ubiquitous blue tarp and having food, :
and a drink, or ten:
(I am not sure if he is in his underwear or his speedos. In any event, I reckon it was about 10 to 12 degrees at the time of the photo.)
Cherry blossoms are very pretty, and the weather forecast on TV each night shows where the cherry blossom "front" is over the whole country. (Naturally, the trees in the more northern and colder parts of Japan start flowering later than those to the warmer south.) More information on sakura trees is, as usual, at Wikipedia. (One thing they don't mention is that a spring time treat is a mochi rice sweet that comes wrapped in a sort of pickled sakura tree leaf. I can only imagine that someone centuries ago must have been really hungry to think about how to make these tree leaves edible.)
Ueno Park also has a smallish zoo, but the throng of people there on this visit made it impossible to get good photos. People are herded particularly quickly past the panda bear enclosure, and I had but a glimpse of a reclining black and white body.
By the way, as global warming would have it, Japan's winter this year was (I am told) particularly cold and snowy. Unexpectedly, I ran into snow into the northern part of Honshu only about 10 days ago. This was the scene outside the onsen hotel after a night of gentle snow:
Damn pretty, hey. (This is a good time to note that my problem with Melbourne winters is not that the minimum temperature is so low - the suburbs in Brisbane often have lower overnight temperatures - it's just that Melbourne suffers from a seemingly interminable number of grey, wet, cool to cold days without ever having the off-setting prettiness of snow.)
Onsen are the Japanese hot spring baths, and most are attached to hotels or inns (ryokan) with Japanese style rooms. Wikipedia has a good summary about them here.
Maybe most people have seen these over the years on the travel shows, but I am in a sharing mood:
This is the washing area next to the bath itself. You sit on the stools and use the shower or basin to wash yourself before getting in the bath, which in my case looked like this:
This is actually the outside bath, as you can see from the snow in the background. The temperature of the water is usually so high that sitting in it with your head and shoulders in the snowy air is pleasant. (Well, if you splash a bit of water on your shoulders every minute or so.)
There was no one around when I took these photos. They are nearly all gender segregated anyway, although that may not stop a cleaning woman being around if you are having a morning bath!
I can tell you that an absolutely essential part of all Japanese TV shows about travel within the country is the scene in which the host is sitting in the local onsen bath, quickly followed by a discussion of the local area's specialty food. (With host tasting it and saying in an exaggerated way "oishi" or "umai", meaning "delicious".)
The Japanese style room will look something like this (insert your own close relative, you can't have mine):
No beds, just futons laid out on the tatami floor in the evening for sleep. Most onsen hotels will include a very nice dinner served in the room with lots of little dishes. This one we stayed at was a "public" onsen, which is cheaper and did not have this option. However, the food served in the dining room smorgasbord style (Japanese call it "viking style", which I find kinda funny) was still very good.
Oh well, I need to catch up on some sleep. More travelogues to come.
(And, just in case you don't realise it yet, clicking on the photos above bring up enlarged versions.)
Friday, April 07, 2006
I wonder what the false positive rate is..
This sounds sort of hard to believe, but we are talking Malaysia:
Malaysia will soon begin using eye-scan machines in schools to detect drug usage among teenage pupils after reports that a large number of adult drug users begin their addictions while in school, media reports said yesterday.
Deputy Education Minister Noh Omar said the 200,000-ringgit ($53,333) machines should be able to detect signs of drug use within 24 hours by using light displays to measure eye movement.
A preliminary test of the eye scans is to be conducted next month at a school in
Kuala Lumpur, he said.
Moreover, things have already been just a tad regimented for Malaysian students:
Previously, the government had been conducting random urine tests on teenage students in schools.
Why hasn't at least a private school in Australia tried flying that one?
They also apparently start young in that country:
The government revealed Thursday that a total of 17.7 per cent of drug addicts polled in Kuala Lumpur had started their addictions before the age of 13 with morphine and heroine topping the list of favoured substances.
Authorities said Malaysia has more than 500,000 addicts, but health workers fear the numbers could be much higher.
Despite Malaysia’s tough drug laws, which prescribe a mandatory death sentence by hanging for drug trafficking, drug addiction continues to be on the rise.
I wonder how reliable these figures are. They have a strong smell of 'moral panic' abut them.
Malaysia will soon begin using eye-scan machines in schools to detect drug usage among teenage pupils after reports that a large number of adult drug users begin their addictions while in school, media reports said yesterday.
Deputy Education Minister Noh Omar said the 200,000-ringgit ($53,333) machines should be able to detect signs of drug use within 24 hours by using light displays to measure eye movement.
A preliminary test of the eye scans is to be conducted next month at a school in
Kuala Lumpur, he said.
Moreover, things have already been just a tad regimented for Malaysian students:
Previously, the government had been conducting random urine tests on teenage students in schools.
Why hasn't at least a private school in Australia tried flying that one?
They also apparently start young in that country:
The government revealed Thursday that a total of 17.7 per cent of drug addicts polled in Kuala Lumpur had started their addictions before the age of 13 with morphine and heroine topping the list of favoured substances.
Authorities said Malaysia has more than 500,000 addicts, but health workers fear the numbers could be much higher.
Despite Malaysia’s tough drug laws, which prescribe a mandatory death sentence by hanging for drug trafficking, drug addiction continues to be on the rise.
I wonder how reliable these figures are. They have a strong smell of 'moral panic' abut them.
Thursday, April 06, 2006
On re-thinking Iraq
The departing editor of The Economist (he's been there 13 years) gets to talk about how the world has changed in the period. On the magazine's decision to support the invasion of Iraq, he writes this:
All of which is the background to the most controversial decision of this editorship: the decision to support the American-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Our reasoning began with the fact that the status quo was terrible: doing nothing, whether about Iraq or about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was itself a deadly decision. It went on to the risk that Saddam still had a stock of weapons of mass destruction that if left in power he might wish to use or to sell. In the light of September 11th and the dismal results from 13 years of sanctions, we argued that wishful thinking about Saddam would be reckless. The West should invade, remove him from power, and throw its considerable resources behind the rebuilding of a free Iraq.
The ensuing three years, I hardly need to say, have seen a debacle. His WMDs turned out to be a bluff, fooling even his own generals. Elections have been held, a constitution has been written, but no government is in place. Institutions remain in tatters. Whether or not a civil war is under way is largely a semantic issue. Dozens of Iraqis are dying every day, killed by other Iraqis. So does this prove our decision wrong, just as the good outcome in ex-Yugoslavia put our “stumbling” warning in the shade?
This will outrage some readers, but I still think the decision was correct—based on the situation at that time, which is all it could have been based on. The risk of leaving Saddam in power was too high. Outside intervention in other countries' affairs is difficult, practically, legally and morally. It should be done only in exceptional circumstances, and backed by exceptional efforts. Iraq qualified on the former. George Bush let us—and America—down on the latter. So, however, did other rich countries: whatever they thought of the invasion, they had a powerful interest in sorting out the aftermath. Most shirked it.
Sounds reasonable to me.
All of which is the background to the most controversial decision of this editorship: the decision to support the American-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Our reasoning began with the fact that the status quo was terrible: doing nothing, whether about Iraq or about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, was itself a deadly decision. It went on to the risk that Saddam still had a stock of weapons of mass destruction that if left in power he might wish to use or to sell. In the light of September 11th and the dismal results from 13 years of sanctions, we argued that wishful thinking about Saddam would be reckless. The West should invade, remove him from power, and throw its considerable resources behind the rebuilding of a free Iraq.
The ensuing three years, I hardly need to say, have seen a debacle. His WMDs turned out to be a bluff, fooling even his own generals. Elections have been held, a constitution has been written, but no government is in place. Institutions remain in tatters. Whether or not a civil war is under way is largely a semantic issue. Dozens of Iraqis are dying every day, killed by other Iraqis. So does this prove our decision wrong, just as the good outcome in ex-Yugoslavia put our “stumbling” warning in the shade?
This will outrage some readers, but I still think the decision was correct—based on the situation at that time, which is all it could have been based on. The risk of leaving Saddam in power was too high. Outside intervention in other countries' affairs is difficult, practically, legally and morally. It should be done only in exceptional circumstances, and backed by exceptional efforts. Iraq qualified on the former. George Bush let us—and America—down on the latter. So, however, did other rich countries: whatever they thought of the invasion, they had a powerful interest in sorting out the aftermath. Most shirked it.
Sounds reasonable to me.
When prayer seems to fail
Slate writer William Saletan has often been mentioned on this blog, and his latest article on the recent study about prayer and its effect on post surgery recovery is another good, half amusing, half serious, read.
Continuing an anti cat crusade...
If the birds don't give you the flu, maybe your cat will:
It is vital to restrict the spread of bird flu in cats in order to protect human health, scientists warn.
Writing in Nature, scientists from Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, say the risk is being overlooked.
It is vital to restrict the spread of bird flu in cats in order to protect human health, scientists warn.
Writing in Nature, scientists from Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, say the risk is being overlooked.
Wednesday, April 05, 2006
Ｍｕｓｔ ｃａｎｃｅｌ ｍｙ Ｍａｒｓ ｔｉｃｋｅｔ
Ｔｈｉｓ ｄｏｅｓ ｎｏｔ ｓｏｕｎｄ ｇｏｏｄ：
Former NASA Payload Specialist James Pawelczyk told an Experimental Biology 2006 meeting Tuesday in San Francisco every cell in one's body could experience a high energy event with heavy metal ions during the 13- to 30-month Mars round trip.
Former NASA Payload Specialist James Pawelczyk told an Experimental Biology 2006 meeting Tuesday in San Francisco every cell in one's body could experience a high energy event with heavy metal ions during the 13- to 30-month Mars round trip.
Ｍｕｓｔ ｔｒｙ ｈａｒｄｅｒ ｔｈａｎ ｔｈｉｓ
Ｓｅｅ ｔｈｉｓ ｓｔｏｒｙ ｆｏｒ ａ ｒｅａｌｌｙ ｐａｔｈｅｔｉｃ ａｔｔｅｍｐｔ ｔｏ ｉｎｃｒｅａｓｅ ｆａｔｈｅｒｓ ｒｏｌｅ ｉｎ ｃｈｉｌｄ ｒｅａｒｉｎｇ ｉｎ Ｊａｐａｎ． ：
Under the revisions -- the latest policy measure aimed at dealing with the anemic birthrate -- expecting fathers, as well as mothers, will receive a notebook to keep records on the health of mother and child from pregnancy through early childhood, LDP members said.
The name of the notebook will be changed from the "maternal and child health handbook" to the "parent and child health handbook."
Under the revisions -- the latest policy measure aimed at dealing with the anemic birthrate -- expecting fathers, as well as mothers, will receive a notebook to keep records on the health of mother and child from pregnancy through early childhood, LDP members said.
The name of the notebook will be changed from the "maternal and child health handbook" to the "parent and child health handbook."
I have a dream...
A couple of nights ago, I had another one of my `proof of flying` dreams. While many people may have dreams in which they can fly, I am not sure how common my (recurring) variation would be.
In the dream I have the ability to fly. Just need to get myself in the right frame of mind, and I can levitate off the ground and swan around in the air. I never fly too high, just a few metres.
During the dream, I am flying alone and unobserved, and am very aware that people will not believe that I am able to do this. I try to think of ways that I can prove it, and this usually involves a video camera taping myself in action, so to speak.
The details of the most recent dream are already sketchy, but I think I got a good tape of myself flying inside a big building, and was very happy and vindicated that people could now see clearly that I can do this. It was a very good feeling. Then I woke up and felt rather disappointed.
I have been having this dream for some years now.
I have always had flying dreams and they have always been nice． However，I find this variation sort of funny/strange, hence this post. Nevertheless, I promise not to make dream reports a regular feature here.
Monday, April 03, 2006
Tracee gets black
The Age's most easily ridiculed writer would currently have to be Tracee Hutchison. Her article about visiting some blackfellas who set up in Melbourne for the Commonwealth games is a good example:
Have you got any blackfella in you? The man asking the question is in the process of smoking me. It seems a strange question to ask a fair-skinned, pale-eyed, blonde woman. I don't think so.
Just sounds like sale assistant talk to me. Never hurts to butter up the customer.
And for some reason, the Fire Man thinks I've got some kind of blackfella spirit inside me. I feel humbled that this healing man might think so.
Not sure why this should be humbling. Is it because there is something nicer about having that touch of primative purity in your blood?
Part of me wishes there were more whitefellas here feeling what I am feeling and the other part is savouring what I know is an extraordinary moment. It is a moment about trust. A moment that says we mean no harm to each other. A moment that tells me about our black history in the most profound way. And it is so understated it is almost overwhelming.
Yes, I always like it when something becomes so understated it circles back on itself and becomes overwhelming.
I find an older man at the sit-down fire and he wants to know my business. I tell him I've come to sit down. We talk for a while and it emerges that I do a radio show and a bit of writing. I thought so, he says. How can we get our message across?
How did he know she was a broadcaster? More of that ancient aboriginal mystical foreknowledge, or does he just own a radio? （ＯＫ， ｓｈｅ ｍａｙ ｎｏｔ ｈａｖｅ ｍｅａｎｔ ｔｈａｔ ｔｏ ｓｏｕｎｄ ｍｙｓｔｉｃａｌ， ｂｕｔ ｓｈｅ ｌｅａｖｅｓ ｔｈａｔ ｉｎｔｅｒｐｒｅｔａｔｉｏｎ ｏｐｅｎ．）
The smell of gum leaves is still in my clothes as I leave 3CR and I'm wondering if that black spirit the Fire Man talked of is something we all might have more of if we took a little time to sit down for a while.
Ｈｏｗ ｖｅｒｙ， ｖｅｒｙ ｔｗｅｅ， Ｔｒａｃｅｅ．
Have you got any blackfella in you? The man asking the question is in the process of smoking me. It seems a strange question to ask a fair-skinned, pale-eyed, blonde woman. I don't think so.
Just sounds like sale assistant talk to me. Never hurts to butter up the customer.
And for some reason, the Fire Man thinks I've got some kind of blackfella spirit inside me. I feel humbled that this healing man might think so.
Not sure why this should be humbling. Is it because there is something nicer about having that touch of primative purity in your blood?
Part of me wishes there were more whitefellas here feeling what I am feeling and the other part is savouring what I know is an extraordinary moment. It is a moment about trust. A moment that says we mean no harm to each other. A moment that tells me about our black history in the most profound way. And it is so understated it is almost overwhelming.
Yes, I always like it when something becomes so understated it circles back on itself and becomes overwhelming.
I find an older man at the sit-down fire and he wants to know my business. I tell him I've come to sit down. We talk for a while and it emerges that I do a radio show and a bit of writing. I thought so, he says. How can we get our message across?
How did he know she was a broadcaster? More of that ancient aboriginal mystical foreknowledge, or does he just own a radio? （ＯＫ， ｓｈｅ ｍａｙ ｎｏｔ ｈａｖｅ ｍｅａｎｔ ｔｈａｔ ｔｏ ｓｏｕｎｄ ｍｙｓｔｉｃａｌ， ｂｕｔ ｓｈｅ ｌｅａｖｅｓ ｔｈａｔ ｉｎｔｅｒｐｒｅｔａｔｉｏｎ ｏｐｅｎ．）
The smell of gum leaves is still in my clothes as I leave 3CR and I'm wondering if that black spirit the Fire Man talked of is something we all might have more of if we took a little time to sit down for a while.
Ｈｏｗ ｖｅｒｙ， ｖｅｒｙ ｔｗｅｅ， Ｔｒａｃｅｅ．
Ｔｈｅ Ｄｏｍｉｎｉｏｎ ｏｎ Ｈｏｌｉｄａｙ
Ｗａｒｎｉｎｇ ｗａｓ ｉｎｔｅｎｄｅｄ ｔｏ ｂｅ ｇｉｖｅｎ ｌａｓｔ ｗｅｅｋ， ｂｕｔ ｔｉｍｅ ｗａｓ ｓｈｏｒｔ．
Ｏｐｉｎｉｏｎ Ｄｏｍｉｎｉｏｎ ｉｓ ｃｕｒｒｅｎｔｌｙ ｃｏｍｉｎｇ ｔｏ ｙｏｕ ｖｉａ Ｊａｐａｎ． Ｈｏｗ ｏｆｔｅｎ ｐｏｓｔｓ ｗｉｌｌ ａｐｐｅａｒ ｉｓ ｎｏｔ ｃｌｅａｒ． Ｔｈｅｒｅ ｉｓ ｔｈｅ ａｄｄｅｄ ｃｏｍｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎ ｏｆ ｕｓｉｎｇ ａ Ｊａｐａｎ Windows computer． It ｋｅｅｐｓ ｔｒｙｉｎｇ ｔｏ ｃｈａｎｇｅ ｔｈｉｎｇｓ ｉｎｔｏ Ｊａｐａｎｅｓｅ，ａｎｄ ｄｏｉｎｇ ｆｕｎｎｙ ｔｈｉｎｇｓ ｔｏ ｆｏｎｔｓ ｅｔｃ． Ｓｏ ｉｆ ｔｈｅ ｆｏｒｍａｔｔｉｎｇ ｉｓ ｗｏｎｋｙ， Ｉ ａｐｏｌｏｇｉｓｅ ｉｎ ａｄｖａｎｃｅ．
Ｏｎｅ ｔｈｉｎｇ Ｉ ａｍ ｕｓｉｎｇ ｔｈａｔ ｓｅｅｍｓ ｔｏ ｗｏｒｋ ｗｅｌｌ ｉｓ Ｐｏｒｔａｂｌｅ Ｆiｒｅｆｏｘ， ａ ｖｅｒｓｉｏｎ ｗｈｉｃｈ ｆｉｔｓ ｏｎ ｔｈｅ ｓｍａｌｌｅｓｔ ＵＳＢ ｋｅｙ ａｎｄ ｒｕｎｓ ｆｒｏｍ ｔｈａｔ ｄｅｖｉｃｅ （ｒａｔｈｅｒ ｔｈａｎ ｄｏｉｎｇ ｔｈｅ ｒａｔｈｅｒ ｉｍｐｏｌｉｔｅ ａｃｔ ｏｆ ｄｏｗｎｌｏａｄｉｎｇ Ｆiｒｅｆｏｘ ｏｎ ｓｏｍｅｏｎｅ eｌｓｅ’ｓ ｈａｒｄ ｄｒｉｖｅ．） Ｉ ｒｅａｌｌｙ ｈａｔｅ ｈａｖｉｎｇ ｔｏ ｕｓｅ ＩＥ ａｆｔｅｒ Ｆｉｒｅｆｏｘ， and Ｉ ａｌｓｏ ｇｅｔ ｔｏ ｒｕｎ Ｆｉｒｅｆｏｘ ｉｎ ｅｎｇｌｉｓｈ，ｗｈｉｃｈ ａｌｗａｙｓ ｈｅｌｐｓ ｔｈｅ ｌａｎｇｕａｇｅ ｃｈａｌｌｅｎｇｅｄ ｌｉｋｅ ｍｅ．
Ｉ ｓｅｅ ｔｈａｔ Ｔｉｍ Ｂｌａｉｒ ｈａｓ ａｌｓｏ ｈａｄ ａ ｌｏｗ Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ ｐｒｅｓｅｎｃｅ ｆｏｒ ｔｈｅ ｌａｓｔ ｆｅｗ ｄａｙｓ． Ｉ ａｍ ｓｕｒｅ ｔｈｅｒｅ ｍｕｓｔ ｂｅ ａ ｃｏｎｓｐｉｒａｃｙ ｔｈｅｏｒｙ ｉｎ ｔｈｅｒｅ ｓｏｍｅｗｈｅｒｅ．
Ｏｐｉｎｉｏｎ Ｄｏｍｉｎｉｏｎ ｉｓ ｃｕｒｒｅｎｔｌｙ ｃｏｍｉｎｇ ｔｏ ｙｏｕ ｖｉａ Ｊａｐａｎ． Ｈｏｗ ｏｆｔｅｎ ｐｏｓｔｓ ｗｉｌｌ ａｐｐｅａｒ ｉｓ ｎｏｔ ｃｌｅａｒ． Ｔｈｅｒｅ ｉｓ ｔｈｅ ａｄｄｅｄ ｃｏｍｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎ ｏｆ ｕｓｉｎｇ ａ Ｊａｐａｎ Windows computer． It ｋｅｅｐｓ ｔｒｙｉｎｇ ｔｏ ｃｈａｎｇｅ ｔｈｉｎｇｓ ｉｎｔｏ Ｊａｐａｎｅｓｅ，ａｎｄ ｄｏｉｎｇ ｆｕｎｎｙ ｔｈｉｎｇｓ ｔｏ ｆｏｎｔｓ ｅｔｃ． Ｓｏ ｉｆ ｔｈｅ ｆｏｒｍａｔｔｉｎｇ ｉｓ ｗｏｎｋｙ， Ｉ ａｐｏｌｏｇｉｓｅ ｉｎ ａｄｖａｎｃｅ．
Ｏｎｅ ｔｈｉｎｇ Ｉ ａｍ ｕｓｉｎｇ ｔｈａｔ ｓｅｅｍｓ ｔｏ ｗｏｒｋ ｗｅｌｌ ｉｓ Ｐｏｒｔａｂｌｅ Ｆiｒｅｆｏｘ， ａ ｖｅｒｓｉｏｎ ｗｈｉｃｈ ｆｉｔｓ ｏｎ ｔｈｅ ｓｍａｌｌｅｓｔ ＵＳＢ ｋｅｙ ａｎｄ ｒｕｎｓ ｆｒｏｍ ｔｈａｔ ｄｅｖｉｃｅ （ｒａｔｈｅｒ ｔｈａｎ ｄｏｉｎｇ ｔｈｅ ｒａｔｈｅｒ ｉｍｐｏｌｉｔｅ ａｃｔ ｏｆ ｄｏｗｎｌｏａｄｉｎｇ Ｆiｒｅｆｏｘ ｏｎ ｓｏｍｅｏｎｅ eｌｓｅ’ｓ ｈａｒｄ ｄｒｉｖｅ．） Ｉ ｒｅａｌｌｙ ｈａｔｅ ｈａｖｉｎｇ ｔｏ ｕｓｅ ＩＥ ａｆｔｅｒ Ｆｉｒｅｆｏｘ， and Ｉ ａｌｓｏ ｇｅｔ ｔｏ ｒｕｎ Ｆｉｒｅｆｏｘ ｉｎ ｅｎｇｌｉｓｈ，ｗｈｉｃｈ ａｌｗａｙｓ ｈｅｌｐｓ ｔｈｅ ｌａｎｇｕａｇｅ ｃｈａｌｌｅｎｇｅｄ ｌｉｋｅ ｍｅ．
Ｉ ｓｅｅ ｔｈａｔ Ｔｉｍ Ｂｌａｉｒ ｈａｓ ａｌｓｏ ｈａｄ ａ ｌｏｗ Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ ｐｒｅｓｅｎｃｅ ｆｏｒ ｔｈｅ ｌａｓｔ ｆｅｗ ｄａｙｓ． Ｉ ａｍ ｓｕｒｅ ｔｈｅｒｅ ｍｕｓｔ ｂｅ ａ ｃｏｎｓｐｉｒａｃｙ ｔｈｅｏｒｙ ｉｎ ｔｈｅｒｅ ｓｏｍｅｗｈｅｒｅ．
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Films from graphic novels/comics
The Australian: Return of people power [March 29, 2006]
You know a film has touched a sensitive nerve when a writer for the Guardian wonders whether sedition laws are appropriately used against it. The story in the Australian (above) gives some background to the film.
The Guardian's film reviewer didn't like it either:
Yet another graphic novel has been bulldozed on to the screen, strutting its stuff for an assumed army of uncritical geeks - a fanbase product from which the fanbase has been amputated. This film manages to be, at all times, weird and bizarre and baffling, but in a completely boring way. Watching it is like having the oxygen supply to your brain slowly starved over more than two hours.
Yet it has made some money in America and at Rotten Tomatoes scored a relatively high approval rating. Seems Americans are not so sensitive about movies involving bombs in the Underground. Just as long as it is not their subway.
Again, I will annoy people by criticising something I haven't seen. I predict, based on the simple fact that it is a movie that is based on a graphic novel, that it will be crap.
Hollywood really, really, has to use better material for its movies than this. Graphic novel material means a high probability that the movie will have good production design, and unrealistic or unconvincing characters.
Comic based movies were OK for a while, I suppose. But it was never a genre that had much depth. They can have a silly charm. But there have been so many dud movies based on Marvel comic heros who no adult has heard of, don't the creative types in Hollywood want to finally leave them alone? How do the writers "pitch" their material convincingly?
By the way, I like animation quite a lot, and this rant does not indicate a simple prejudice against material designed for a younger audience. I understand the appeal of a graphic novel, even though I don't read them. But please stop with the movies based on this kind of stuff.
You know a film has touched a sensitive nerve when a writer for the Guardian wonders whether sedition laws are appropriately used against it. The story in the Australian (above) gives some background to the film.
The Guardian's film reviewer didn't like it either:
Yet another graphic novel has been bulldozed on to the screen, strutting its stuff for an assumed army of uncritical geeks - a fanbase product from which the fanbase has been amputated. This film manages to be, at all times, weird and bizarre and baffling, but in a completely boring way. Watching it is like having the oxygen supply to your brain slowly starved over more than two hours.
Yet it has made some money in America and at Rotten Tomatoes scored a relatively high approval rating. Seems Americans are not so sensitive about movies involving bombs in the Underground. Just as long as it is not their subway.
Again, I will annoy people by criticising something I haven't seen. I predict, based on the simple fact that it is a movie that is based on a graphic novel, that it will be crap.
Hollywood really, really, has to use better material for its movies than this. Graphic novel material means a high probability that the movie will have good production design, and unrealistic or unconvincing characters.
Comic based movies were OK for a while, I suppose. But it was never a genre that had much depth. They can have a silly charm. But there have been so many dud movies based on Marvel comic heros who no adult has heard of, don't the creative types in Hollywood want to finally leave them alone? How do the writers "pitch" their material convincingly?
By the way, I like animation quite a lot, and this rant does not indicate a simple prejudice against material designed for a younger audience. I understand the appeal of a graphic novel, even though I don't read them. But please stop with the movies based on this kind of stuff.
Gerard Henderson on sedition
Knowing the enemy makes leaders friends - Opinion - smh.com.au
Yesterday's column by GH (above) notes that the Law Reform Commission is looking at the commonwealth sedition laws. Henderson notes:
On March 20 the commission published an issues paper titled Review of Sedition Laws. The issues paper seeks community consultation and the final chapter of the document contains a list of questions to which the authors of the report would like responses. Weisbrot and his colleagues make it clear they have not reached any "definitive conclusions" about their ultimate findings and recommendations.
Even so, the paper indicates that - at this stage, at least - the authors do not share the hyperbolic concern ignited by some of the critics of the federal and state governments when this legislation was canvassed late last year. For example, the paper refers to a "misunderstanding" of the construction of criminal responsibility evident in submissions to the Senate committee and comments that legal distinctions can be difficult "for non-experts and sometimes even for experts".
On a number of key issues the Law Reform Commission gives support to the case presented by the Attorney-General's Department to the Senate committee.
Seems consistent with what I had been saying earlier about the nature of the criticism about the laws.
Yesterday's column by GH (above) notes that the Law Reform Commission is looking at the commonwealth sedition laws. Henderson notes:
On March 20 the commission published an issues paper titled Review of Sedition Laws. The issues paper seeks community consultation and the final chapter of the document contains a list of questions to which the authors of the report would like responses. Weisbrot and his colleagues make it clear they have not reached any "definitive conclusions" about their ultimate findings and recommendations.
Even so, the paper indicates that - at this stage, at least - the authors do not share the hyperbolic concern ignited by some of the critics of the federal and state governments when this legislation was canvassed late last year. For example, the paper refers to a "misunderstanding" of the construction of criminal responsibility evident in submissions to the Senate committee and comments that legal distinctions can be difficult "for non-experts and sometimes even for experts".
On a number of key issues the Law Reform Commission gives support to the case presented by the Attorney-General's Department to the Senate committee.
Seems consistent with what I had been saying earlier about the nature of the criticism about the laws.
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
A funny thing happened on the way to the verdict
Moussaoui destroys his own defence - World - theage.com.au
From the above:
The prosecution is seeking the death penalty on the basis that Moussaoui contributed to the deaths of about 3,000 people on September 11 because he did not tell authorities about the planned hijackings.
"The reason you told lies was so you could allow the operation to go forward," prosecutor Robert Spencer demanded of Moussaoui.
"That is correct," Moussaoui replied. ....
Many analysts have said this week could prove decisive for Moussaoui.
They have also expressed fears that testimony from the unpredictable Moussaoui could undo sterling work by defence lawyers who have picked deep holes in the prosecution case for their client's execution.
The sterling work is about as undone as it could possibly be. No "if the glove doesn't fit you must acquit" style slogan is going to work this time.
From the above:
The prosecution is seeking the death penalty on the basis that Moussaoui contributed to the deaths of about 3,000 people on September 11 because he did not tell authorities about the planned hijackings.
"The reason you told lies was so you could allow the operation to go forward," prosecutor Robert Spencer demanded of Moussaoui.
"That is correct," Moussaoui replied. ....
Many analysts have said this week could prove decisive for Moussaoui.
They have also expressed fears that testimony from the unpredictable Moussaoui could undo sterling work by defence lawyers who have picked deep holes in the prosecution case for their client's execution.
The sterling work is about as undone as it could possibly be. No "if the glove doesn't fit you must acquit" style slogan is going to work this time.
Monday, March 27, 2006
Child free Europe
BBC NEWS | Europe | The EU's baby blues
The BBC site above fills in some of the gaps in understanding the various reasons behind Europe's dire birth rate, a topic mentioned here quite a few times recently.
The page about Italy's low rate has some surprises:
Laura Callura, 38, who lives in Rome says she is typical of many Italian women.
"I became a mother at 36 and that's not unusual here," she says. "A lot of my friends had their first child between the ages of 33 and 38.
"Here in Italy we start life much later than people in northern Europe. University courses take longer to finish and it's harder for young people to get into the job market.
"I started my first job when I was 25 - but that is quite unusual. Most Italians don't start their career until their late 20s."
The BBC site above fills in some of the gaps in understanding the various reasons behind Europe's dire birth rate, a topic mentioned here quite a few times recently.
The page about Italy's low rate has some surprises:
Laura Callura, 38, who lives in Rome says she is typical of many Italian women.
"I became a mother at 36 and that's not unusual here," she says. "A lot of my friends had their first child between the ages of 33 and 38.
"Here in Italy we start life much later than people in northern Europe. University courses take longer to finish and it's harder for young people to get into the job market.
"I started my first job when I was 25 - but that is quite unusual. Most Italians don't start their career until their late 20s."
Fishy porker
Britain, UK news from The Times and The Sunday Times - Times Online
From the above story:
The piglets have been enhanced with a gene from a nematode worm to give their meat up to five times the normal level of omega 3 fatty acids.
Note the use of the word "enhanced" there.
The pigs — three of which were named Salmon, Tuna and Trout after fish high in omega 3 fats — are the first cloned livestock that can make the beneficial compounds. The success, by a research team in the US, paves the way for a new era of animal breeding, in which animals are genetically engineered to make their meat healthier.
Note the reference to the cute-ish names. I think this journalist is maybe a little too comfortable with the idea of genetically modified animals.
While I suspect it is partly irrational, I am not comfortable about this type of genetic engineering, especially if it is only about making food "healthier" for the overfed West (or East, in the case of pork) rather than doing something really useful like helping make basic food more readily available for struggling countries.
Just eat less of the fat when you have pork, that's all you need to have healthier pork consumption.
From the above story:
The piglets have been enhanced with a gene from a nematode worm to give their meat up to five times the normal level of omega 3 fatty acids.
Note the use of the word "enhanced" there.
The pigs — three of which were named Salmon, Tuna and Trout after fish high in omega 3 fats — are the first cloned livestock that can make the beneficial compounds. The success, by a research team in the US, paves the way for a new era of animal breeding, in which animals are genetically engineered to make their meat healthier.
Note the reference to the cute-ish names. I think this journalist is maybe a little too comfortable with the idea of genetically modified animals.
While I suspect it is partly irrational, I am not comfortable about this type of genetic engineering, especially if it is only about making food "healthier" for the overfed West (or East, in the case of pork) rather than doing something really useful like helping make basic food more readily available for struggling countries.
Just eat less of the fat when you have pork, that's all you need to have healthier pork consumption.
If volunteering for drug trials isn't fun enough for you...
Guardian Unlimited Business | | Panicky scramble to evacuate A380 'a great success'
Interesting story above about the somewhat dangerous tests that aircraft manufacturers need to go through to show a new airliner can be evacuated quickly enough:
In a German airport hangar yesterday, 873 volunteers scrambled down rubber emergency slides from one of Airbus's new A380 superjumbos in only 80 seconds....
But:
The target was achieved at some cost. One volunteer aged over 50 suffered a broken leg; another 32 sustained minor injuries including friction burns and bruises....
Still, compared to previous tests for other aircraft, just one broken leg looks good:
Yesterday's apparent success will be a relief to Airbus as evacuation exercises have a hazardous history. In a 1991 test of a McDonnell Douglas MD-11 in California, evacuation of 421 people took 132 seconds and resulted in 28 injuries.
In a re-run, a 60-year-old woman fell down a slide, broke her neck and was left paralysed for life.
Interesting story above about the somewhat dangerous tests that aircraft manufacturers need to go through to show a new airliner can be evacuated quickly enough:
In a German airport hangar yesterday, 873 volunteers scrambled down rubber emergency slides from one of Airbus's new A380 superjumbos in only 80 seconds....
But:
The target was achieved at some cost. One volunteer aged over 50 suffered a broken leg; another 32 sustained minor injuries including friction burns and bruises....
Still, compared to previous tests for other aircraft, just one broken leg looks good:
Yesterday's apparent success will be a relief to Airbus as evacuation exercises have a hazardous history. In a 1991 test of a McDonnell Douglas MD-11 in California, evacuation of 421 people took 132 seconds and resulted in 28 injuries.
In a re-run, a 60-year-old woman fell down a slide, broke her neck and was left paralysed for life.
More dust is what we need
Brighter sun adds to fears of climate change - Sunday Times - Times Online
This report seems very significant:
Wild said: “Sunshine levels had been decreasing by 2% a decade between 1960 and 1980 — a total decline of about 6%. Now they are going up again. Perhaps this is why our Swiss glaciers are melting.”
A 6% increase in the amount of solar radiation reaching earth would have a powerful impact on climate, especially when added to the warming effect of greenhouse gases which have already raised global temperatures by about 0.6C. Researchers predict an additional rise of at least 1.5C by 2050.
Such rises could be disastrous for agriculture, wildlife and human settlements in many regions, especially the tropics. But scientists warn they may have to revise these calculations sharply upwards if the impact of “global brightening” has to be factored
This report seems very significant:
Wild said: “Sunshine levels had been decreasing by 2% a decade between 1960 and 1980 — a total decline of about 6%. Now they are going up again. Perhaps this is why our Swiss glaciers are melting.”
A 6% increase in the amount of solar radiation reaching earth would have a powerful impact on climate, especially when added to the warming effect of greenhouse gases which have already raised global temperatures by about 0.6C. Researchers predict an additional rise of at least 1.5C by 2050.
Such rises could be disastrous for agriculture, wildlife and human settlements in many regions, especially the tropics. But scientists warn they may have to revise these calculations sharply upwards if the impact of “global brightening” has to be factored
Another Australian win
Australians top global ecstasy users. 27/03/2006. ABC News Online
Its white, white, white for Australia.
Its white, white, white for Australia.
Global warming and ocean levels
news @ nature.com-Warnings rise over rising seas-Fresh predictions about climate change prompt news@nature.com to ask what we know about the future of our oceans.
As I have previously posted on the current relatively slow rate of sea level rises, it's only fair that I post about this new study indicating that (on worst estimates) the sea level rise could indeed be very dramatic within a hundred years.
These new estimates are so high above those previously indicated by the IPCC that I expect there may be some legitimate criticism of the studies to come soon. I also have doubts that it matches entirely with other possibilities recently mooted.
Meanwhile, I have been meaning to get some good maps to see where the beach may be in 100 years time, and consider buying land there.
UPDATE: Real Climate's take on the story is very important as a counterpoint to the way this story has been reported in the media. (For those who don't know, Real Climate is in no way a global warming sceptic site. Quite the opposite.)
What does all this news mean in practice? Reading the editorials in Science, and quotations from various researchers in newspaper articles, one might be under the impression that we should now expect "catastrophic sea-level rise" (as Science's Richard Kerr writes). Of course, what is catastrophic to the eye of a geologist may be an event taking thousands of years. In the Otto-Bliesner et al. simulations, it takes 2000-3000 years for Greenland to melt back to its LIG minimum size. And while we don't advocate sticking with the typical politician's time frame of 4 or 5 years, the new results do not require us to revise projections of sea level rise over the next century or so. This is because even with Arctic temperature continuing to rise rapidly, there will still be significant delay before the process of ice sheet melting and thinning is complete. There is uncertainty in this delay time, but this is already taken into account in IPCC uncertainty estimates. It is also important to remember that the data showing accelerating mass loss in Antarctica and rapid glacier flow in Greenland only reflect a very few years of measurements -- the GRACE satellite has only been in operation since 2002, so it provides only a snapshot of Antarctic mass changes. We don't really know whether these observations reflect the long term trend.
So, no need for me to retract my previous posts about there being no need (for the next few decades at least) to talk about Tuvalu sinking beneath the seas. You would never guess that from the general media, but I think Science magazine itself is rather to blame in this case.
As I have previously posted on the current relatively slow rate of sea level rises, it's only fair that I post about this new study indicating that (on worst estimates) the sea level rise could indeed be very dramatic within a hundred years.
These new estimates are so high above those previously indicated by the IPCC that I expect there may be some legitimate criticism of the studies to come soon. I also have doubts that it matches entirely with other possibilities recently mooted.
Meanwhile, I have been meaning to get some good maps to see where the beach may be in 100 years time, and consider buying land there.
UPDATE: Real Climate's take on the story is very important as a counterpoint to the way this story has been reported in the media. (For those who don't know, Real Climate is in no way a global warming sceptic site. Quite the opposite.)
What does all this news mean in practice? Reading the editorials in Science, and quotations from various researchers in newspaper articles, one might be under the impression that we should now expect "catastrophic sea-level rise" (as Science's Richard Kerr writes). Of course, what is catastrophic to the eye of a geologist may be an event taking thousands of years. In the Otto-Bliesner et al. simulations, it takes 2000-3000 years for Greenland to melt back to its LIG minimum size. And while we don't advocate sticking with the typical politician's time frame of 4 or 5 years, the new results do not require us to revise projections of sea level rise over the next century or so. This is because even with Arctic temperature continuing to rise rapidly, there will still be significant delay before the process of ice sheet melting and thinning is complete. There is uncertainty in this delay time, but this is already taken into account in IPCC uncertainty estimates. It is also important to remember that the data showing accelerating mass loss in Antarctica and rapid glacier flow in Greenland only reflect a very few years of measurements -- the GRACE satellite has only been in operation since 2002, so it provides only a snapshot of Antarctic mass changes. We don't really know whether these observations reflect the long term trend.
So, no need for me to retract my previous posts about there being no need (for the next few decades at least) to talk about Tuvalu sinking beneath the seas. You would never guess that from the general media, but I think Science magazine itself is rather to blame in this case.
Sunday, March 26, 2006
Ouch...
news @ nature.com - Stem cells found in adult mouse testes -Procedure could yield an ethically sound source of stem cells.
From the above story in Nature:
Researchers in Germany have identified a potential source of reprogrammable cells in adults that could be used for regenerative therapy. The cells would be taken directly from the testis and cultured....
....it should be possible to produce similar results [to those with mice] with samples taken from human testicles through a biopsy...
From the above story in Nature:
Researchers in Germany have identified a potential source of reprogrammable cells in adults that could be used for regenerative therapy. The cells would be taken directly from the testis and cultured....
....it should be possible to produce similar results [to those with mice] with samples taken from human testicles through a biopsy...
Howard's popularity
The Australian: Howard love means never saying farewell [March 25, 2006]
Matt Price's piece in this Weekend's Australian notes the PM's apparent (and somewhat puzzling) popularity at the Commonweath Games. Here's how he is being received:
Last weekend I attended the swimming where, on the announcement of the PM presenting the medals, the spontaneous roar almost matched the reception for Leisel Jones.
A friend of mine has been working at the gymnastics, where the PM made a midweek evening appearance.
"The crowd went off," he told me. "At the end of the session, Howard stuck around to sign autographs and pose for photos and he was still there half an hour later when I left. There were all kinds of people queuing up to meet him. Just incredible, I couldn't believe it."
While covering the men's and women's 20km walk events - quite possibly the stupidest assignment in the known universe - the Howards were scheduled to greet competitors at the end. But when Jane Saville crossed the line, only Janette Howard was able to attend; the PM was held up organising the Cyclone Larry relief operation. While milling around the finish line, Janette Howard was mobbed by punters and volunteers; truly, I'm not making this up.
The rest of the article is about how no one quite understands why. It must drive Tim Dunlop mad. (He's been posting tirelessly on the Wheat Board scandal.)
The friendly reception may account for this too:
MELBOURNE outdoes Sydney when it comes to hosting large events such as the Commonwealth Games, the Prime Minister said, praising the friendliness of its residents and the sense of community it has created for visitors.
"[Melbourne] does these things better than any other city because there's a sense of community cohesion," John Howard told Melbourne radio yesterday.
As for how a cheerful reception for Howard makes Peter Costello feel, have a look at the Clark & Dawe bit from Thursday's 7.30 Report (seems only a transcript is up at the moment). I like this part:
INTERVIEWER: What are you actually doing there these days?
PETER COSTELLO: I'm the Federal Treasurer, Bryan. I'm running the Treasury, yes.
INTERVIEWER: Oh, really, the same job?
PETER COSTELLO: The same job, exactly, yes.
INTERVIEWER: You're obviously still enjoying it?
PETER COSTELLO: I love it, Bryan. I'll be bringing down my 211th Budget this year, so getting the hang of it nicely, you'd have to say.
Matt Price's piece in this Weekend's Australian notes the PM's apparent (and somewhat puzzling) popularity at the Commonweath Games. Here's how he is being received:
Last weekend I attended the swimming where, on the announcement of the PM presenting the medals, the spontaneous roar almost matched the reception for Leisel Jones.
A friend of mine has been working at the gymnastics, where the PM made a midweek evening appearance.
"The crowd went off," he told me. "At the end of the session, Howard stuck around to sign autographs and pose for photos and he was still there half an hour later when I left. There were all kinds of people queuing up to meet him. Just incredible, I couldn't believe it."
While covering the men's and women's 20km walk events - quite possibly the stupidest assignment in the known universe - the Howards were scheduled to greet competitors at the end. But when Jane Saville crossed the line, only Janette Howard was able to attend; the PM was held up organising the Cyclone Larry relief operation. While milling around the finish line, Janette Howard was mobbed by punters and volunteers; truly, I'm not making this up.
The rest of the article is about how no one quite understands why. It must drive Tim Dunlop mad. (He's been posting tirelessly on the Wheat Board scandal.)
The friendly reception may account for this too:
MELBOURNE outdoes Sydney when it comes to hosting large events such as the Commonwealth Games, the Prime Minister said, praising the friendliness of its residents and the sense of community it has created for visitors.
"[Melbourne] does these things better than any other city because there's a sense of community cohesion," John Howard told Melbourne radio yesterday.
As for how a cheerful reception for Howard makes Peter Costello feel, have a look at the Clark & Dawe bit from Thursday's 7.30 Report (seems only a transcript is up at the moment). I like this part:
INTERVIEWER: What are you actually doing there these days?
PETER COSTELLO: I'm the Federal Treasurer, Bryan. I'm running the Treasury, yes.
INTERVIEWER: Oh, really, the same job?
PETER COSTELLO: The same job, exactly, yes.
INTERVIEWER: You're obviously still enjoying it?
PETER COSTELLO: I love it, Bryan. I'll be bringing down my 211th Budget this year, so getting the hang of it nicely, you'd have to say.
Friday, March 24, 2006
Paris in Spring
International News Article | Reuters.com
It's funny how Australia and France take industrial relations reform differently, isn't it. Of course, our unions might have learnt something from the PR debacle of the storming of Parliament House in Howard's first term.
It's funny how Australia and France take industrial relations reform differently, isn't it. Of course, our unions might have learnt something from the PR debacle of the storming of Parliament House in Howard's first term.
Polygamy on HBO
The New Yorker: The Critics: On Television
So, the polygamous marriage show has started on HBO in America. As if you didn't suspect it already, the shows creators have fine liberal credentials:
The series was created by Will Scheffer and Mark V. Olsen, who are life partners as well as professional collaborators. They also serve as executive producers (as does Tom Hanks), and wrote five of the season’s twelve episodes (and co-wrote another two). Scheffer and Olsen have said in interviews that they aimed to create a nonjudgmental portrait of plural marriage, and it’s true that the series focusses more on the practical and emotional aspects of polygamy than on its moral or ethical aspects.
What interests me is this: many feminists or other liberals would, I suspect, object to polygamy on the basis that it arguably does not do much from the status of women. If a show portraying polygamy in a "non judgmental" light had been made by some clearly right leaning figures, would their sexual politics have been criticised? However, have it made by gay Hollywood liberals, I wonder how much this issue may be raised.
(Perhaps it is being raised, I have not spent much time looking for commentary on it. I just raise this as a point of interest.)
And while I am on this, it seems that openly gay writer's and producers have really never had a bigger influence in TV and movie production as they have had in the last 5 years or so. I am thinking Sex and the City, Desperate Housewives, (I presume) Will & Grace (which I don't find offensive, just not funny, even though I like the lead female); this polygamy show, some movie guys whose names I can't recall without googling, etc.
Funny how sexual matters seem to be somewhat of a priority in the stuff they are doing. Funny how ratings and movie earnings are down too. They may be cool and "out there" with their writing, but they aren't so good for business.
UPDATE: Saletan's take on why polygamy will never really catch on is a good read here at Slate. You can then read arguments for and against Saletan's position here.
So, the polygamous marriage show has started on HBO in America. As if you didn't suspect it already, the shows creators have fine liberal credentials:
The series was created by Will Scheffer and Mark V. Olsen, who are life partners as well as professional collaborators. They also serve as executive producers (as does Tom Hanks), and wrote five of the season’s twelve episodes (and co-wrote another two). Scheffer and Olsen have said in interviews that they aimed to create a nonjudgmental portrait of plural marriage, and it’s true that the series focusses more on the practical and emotional aspects of polygamy than on its moral or ethical aspects.
What interests me is this: many feminists or other liberals would, I suspect, object to polygamy on the basis that it arguably does not do much from the status of women. If a show portraying polygamy in a "non judgmental" light had been made by some clearly right leaning figures, would their sexual politics have been criticised? However, have it made by gay Hollywood liberals, I wonder how much this issue may be raised.
(Perhaps it is being raised, I have not spent much time looking for commentary on it. I just raise this as a point of interest.)
And while I am on this, it seems that openly gay writer's and producers have really never had a bigger influence in TV and movie production as they have had in the last 5 years or so. I am thinking Sex and the City, Desperate Housewives, (I presume) Will & Grace (which I don't find offensive, just not funny, even though I like the lead female); this polygamy show, some movie guys whose names I can't recall without googling, etc.
Funny how sexual matters seem to be somewhat of a priority in the stuff they are doing. Funny how ratings and movie earnings are down too. They may be cool and "out there" with their writing, but they aren't so good for business.
UPDATE: Saletan's take on why polygamy will never really catch on is a good read here at Slate. You can then read arguments for and against Saletan's position here.
Just silly
Hidden jobless figure may reach 17% - National - smh.com.au
From the article:
"There are about 2 million people who typically would have got jobs in the 1960s who can't get work now," said John Quiggin, professor of economics at the University of Queensland.
Professor Quiggin's calculations mean about 17.5 per cent of the labour force wants more work than it can get - more than triple the official 5.2 per cent jobless rate. Acceptable real unemployment estimates ranged between 10 and 20 per cent.
How much sense does it make to call the "underemployed" the "unemployed"? None at all, in my books.
From the article:
"There are about 2 million people who typically would have got jobs in the 1960s who can't get work now," said John Quiggin, professor of economics at the University of Queensland.
Professor Quiggin's calculations mean about 17.5 per cent of the labour force wants more work than it can get - more than triple the official 5.2 per cent jobless rate. Acceptable real unemployment estimates ranged between 10 and 20 per cent.
How much sense does it make to call the "underemployed" the "unemployed"? None at all, in my books.
Thursday, March 23, 2006
Bingo
Time to change tack on Howard: Gillard - National - smh.com.au
Let's play "Labor Party self-analysis bingo" with Julia Gillard.
Arguing that her party had to "stand and fight for our values", Ms Gillard presented a forceful argument in the debate within Labor about whether it stood out clearly enough from the Coalition.
"We cannot shy away from the so-called 'culture wars' out of fear of being wedged by right-wing caricatures of Labor values," she said.
Speaking at a NSW Fabian Society Forum entitled "John Howard: 10 years on", Ms Gillard called for a new Labor vision...
She has called for him [Beazley]to be more inclusive..
It was not enough to assume Labor's view of Mr Howard would prevail.
"It was hoped if people woke up to his use of the politics of fear, Howard would fail. It was hoped if Howard was derided as divisive that he would be repudiated. But these strategies have failed."
I am sure I could come up with more if a complete text of the speech was available.
Kim, the clock is ticking to a Gillard showdown within the next 6 months.
Seems some contributors to Larvatus Prodeo are running a "Go Jules 2007" campaign. I should support this too, on the assumption I will still want a Liberal government after the next election.
UPDATE: Wow. Beazley mate Michael Costello has a red hot go at Gillard in the Australian this morning. I suspect this means Beazley wants to flush out any prospect of a challenge sooner rather than later. Just a sample from the article:
Gillard, on the other hand, [compared to Latham] has little memorable to say on substance. Her prescriptions whether on policy, or the future of the party, or on political tactics, are lightweight and banal.
But she is not about policy. She is about look at me, look at me, look at me. Her aim is the celebrity that brings public approval. And the way she has set out to get that celebrity is to savage her own party.
Her Fabian Society speech this week was empty of specifics.
etc, etc. Love it.
Let's play "Labor Party self-analysis bingo" with Julia Gillard.
Arguing that her party had to "stand and fight for our values", Ms Gillard presented a forceful argument in the debate within Labor about whether it stood out clearly enough from the Coalition.
"We cannot shy away from the so-called 'culture wars' out of fear of being wedged by right-wing caricatures of Labor values," she said.
Speaking at a NSW Fabian Society Forum entitled "John Howard: 10 years on", Ms Gillard called for a new Labor vision...
She has called for him [Beazley]to be more inclusive..
It was not enough to assume Labor's view of Mr Howard would prevail.
"It was hoped if people woke up to his use of the politics of fear, Howard would fail. It was hoped if Howard was derided as divisive that he would be repudiated. But these strategies have failed."
I am sure I could come up with more if a complete text of the speech was available.
Kim, the clock is ticking to a Gillard showdown within the next 6 months.
Seems some contributors to Larvatus Prodeo are running a "Go Jules 2007" campaign. I should support this too, on the assumption I will still want a Liberal government after the next election.
UPDATE: Wow. Beazley mate Michael Costello has a red hot go at Gillard in the Australian this morning. I suspect this means Beazley wants to flush out any prospect of a challenge sooner rather than later. Just a sample from the article:
Gillard, on the other hand, [compared to Latham] has little memorable to say on substance. Her prescriptions whether on policy, or the future of the party, or on political tactics, are lightweight and banal.
But she is not about policy. She is about look at me, look at me, look at me. Her aim is the celebrity that brings public approval. And the way she has set out to get that celebrity is to savage her own party.
Her Fabian Society speech this week was empty of specifics.
etc, etc. Love it.
Airline warning
BBC NEWS | Europe | EU issues 'unsafe' airlines ban
The EU has a list of unsafe airlines, most of which are in Congo, Sierra Leone and other places in which I assume I have a very small readership.
However:
Thailand's Phuket Airlines is on the list, as well as carriers from Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and North Korea.
Air Bangladesh makes the list too. You have been warned.
The EU has a list of unsafe airlines, most of which are in Congo, Sierra Leone and other places in which I assume I have a very small readership.
However:
Thailand's Phuket Airlines is on the list, as well as carriers from Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and North Korea.
Air Bangladesh makes the list too. You have been warned.
Litigation coming our way?
Guardian Unlimited Technology | Technology | Landmark libel award for chatroom insults
From the above:
A landmark legal ruling ordering a woman to pay £10,000 in damages for defamatory comments posted on an internet chatroom site could trigger a rush of similar lawsuits, a leading libel lawyer warned today.
Michael Smith, a Ukip activist who stood for the Portsmouth North seat last year, became the first person to win damages yesterday after being accused of being a "sex offender" and "racist blogger" on a Yahoo! discussion site....
Although ISPs have paid out for hosting defamatory comments, this case is thought to be the first time an individual has been found to have committed libel on a internet chat site.
In a way, it's surprising that such litigation has taken so long to start.
From the above:
A landmark legal ruling ordering a woman to pay £10,000 in damages for defamatory comments posted on an internet chatroom site could trigger a rush of similar lawsuits, a leading libel lawyer warned today.
Michael Smith, a Ukip activist who stood for the Portsmouth North seat last year, became the first person to win damages yesterday after being accused of being a "sex offender" and "racist blogger" on a Yahoo! discussion site....
Although ISPs have paid out for hosting defamatory comments, this case is thought to be the first time an individual has been found to have committed libel on a internet chat site.
In a way, it's surprising that such litigation has taken so long to start.
Add the imbalance of boys to girls, they won't need it for much longer
Beijing rules out changes to one-child policy - World - theage.com.au
From the story:
China's birth rate fell from 5.83 children per couple in the early 1970s to 2.1 children in 1990 and is now 1.8.
The original harsh policing, which involved widespread sterilisation, was replaced in the early 1990s by economic incentives to limit families to one child after widespread condemnation.
Mr Zhang acknowledged that abuses were still occurring but said authorities were cracking down on gender-selective abortions to correct the huge gender imbalance favouring males.
From the story:
China's birth rate fell from 5.83 children per couple in the early 1970s to 2.1 children in 1990 and is now 1.8.
The original harsh policing, which involved widespread sterilisation, was replaced in the early 1990s by economic incentives to limit families to one child after widespread condemnation.
Mr Zhang acknowledged that abuses were still occurring but said authorities were cracking down on gender-selective abortions to correct the huge gender imbalance favouring males.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)