Who cares?

Panasonic Introduces Next-Generation Blu-ray Disc Player

I may be proved wrong, but Blu Ray seems a clear case of a technology that is so far ahead of market interest, it's seems nearly pointless to bother putting more out there. (At least until they can be made cheaper.)

Pretty obvious

Male preference could have negative impact

New studies commissioned by the U.N. Population Fund predicted that as males outnumber females, because of pre-natal testing to determine the sex of fetuses and subsequent abortions of unwanted females, a surge in sexual violence and trafficking of women could occur.

News for your accountant

Monkeys reveal brain is hard-wired for counting - life - 30 October 2007 - New Scientist

While monkeys might not yet have mastered calculus, recent studies have shown that they can learn understand some basic aspects of arithmetic and, in a rare case, multiplication.

Andreas Nieder at the University of Tübingen in Germany and colleagues trained two rhesus monkeys to count by showing them various numbers of dots on a screen followed by Arabic numerals....

"Although monkeys don't have language they can understand a symbol and what it refers to," she explains.

Nieder, meanwhile, believes that the monkeys can count to far higher numbers. "I'm convinced that they could go to infinity," he says.

There must be a joke to be made somehow, or a funny passage in a faux Douglas Adams book, about the very idea of a roomful of monkeys counting to infinity. Go to it, comedy writers.

Last political post for today

I'm posting so much about politics lately I'm starting to bore myself.

But before I search the Web for something else, did you see Howard's remarkably relaxed and cheery performance on Lateline last night? It was in stark contrast to another stressed looking performance on 7.30 Report the night before, although I still say that Kerry O'Brien is coming out with much stronger aggression in his interviews with Howard compared to Rudd.

(I clearly remember Kerry looking increasingly downcast on the election night coverage in 2004 as the extent of the loss by Labor became apparent. He will be positively suicidal if Howard scrapes back in this time.)

I also just heard Malcolm Turnbull on AM sounding very, very chipper too.

It's amazing how quickly the mood can swing in election campaigns.

UPDATE: funny how I posted last week about the government in England getting all wobbly over a 20% renewable energy commitment by 2020 and now Kevin Rudd decides to commit Australia to the same figure. If England, with some years of the commitment behind it, is saying it doesn't look achievable, I would be very surprised if it is here too.

Sadly missing from Australian politics

Indonesian president releases album - Music - Entertainment - theage.com.au

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has found a new use for his presidential pen, composing an album of 10 heartfelt songs for release across the nation this week.

My Longing for You, a 50-minute album released on compact disc, features pop songs written by the president and performed by prominent Indonesian singers.

The cover shows Yudhoyono clutching an acoustic guitar, his solemn face looming over a line-up of musicians who perform songs such as The Sun is Shining, A Song Under the Moonlight, The Power of God and Good Luck in Your Struggle.

Forget leaders debates, and the worm, what we need is the Election-vision Song Contest. You might think Labor has the advantage, what with Peter Garrett on board, but he would have a hell of a lot of trouble working out his lyrics at the moment.

In fact, I can imagine Kevin storming on stage and ripping the microphone out of his hand, while he launches into an amended version.

About interest rates

Fumbling the economy - Opinion - theage.com.au

Tim Colebatch writes about how the Howard government policies affect inflation and interest rates. It's interesting reading, but I remain sceptical about 2 points:

1. As per the Labor line, Colebatch argues that skills shortages lead to increased wages, which lead to inflation and higher interest rates. Howard is blamed for dismantling "Working Australia", which (in theory) would have skilled people up for the boom that was to come.

My scepticism is about just how big a factor this can really be. My intuition is that, in the big scheme of things, increased wages for tradesmen and other skilled workers is not likely to be that important.

2. Colebatch writes:

...instead of using budget policy to ease pressure on interest rates, as in the past, Howard has increased the pressure by shovelling money into voters' pockets while the Reserve tries to slow their spending. On Treasury projections, personal income tax will shrink from 12.1 per cent of GDP in 2004-05 to just 10.3 per cent in 2008-09 — adding $20 billion a year to consumers' spending power.

In past booms, monetary and fiscal policy have worked together. More jobs and higher wages increased tax revenues, reducing the need for rate rises to slow the economy. Now the Government has dropped its end so it can deliver big tax cuts.

But how legitimate is it to keep surpluses high as a means of controlling interest rates? Sounds a bit odd to me.

Colebatch does also list the ways that Howard can either claim credit for helping rates stay under control, or simply say that certain matters are not really within its control.

It's worth reading, despite my scepticism about some of his points.

Conservatives win, sort of...

The slow creep of conservatism - Opinion - smh.com.au

Gerard Henderson's column runs the entertaining argument that concludes "it seems we are all conservatives now". Worth reading.

You won't read this elsewhere

It must be the mind control waves being beamed into voters by our new comet-riding alien overlords which accounts for an unexpected Newspoll result favouring the Coalition. (Well, it's as good an explanation as any you are likely to hear in the media.)

Howard on Kyoto

Garrett clarifies Labor climate stance | The Australian

People like symbolism, there's no doubt about it. This "leading by example" argument for ratifying Kyoto plays well to the public, but surely it only makes some sense if the treaty process is actually working. Do people think China won't notice that the nations signed up to it are achieving nothing?

It would seem that Malcolm Turnbull thinks along the lines of "why should the Liberals (and me in particular) suffer the loss of the electorate's brownie points for the symbolism, even if the thing doesn't work." It makes political sense in a way, but is also quite cynical.

John Howard made the keys points on AM this morning, not that anyone will pay attention:

"Even if all of the countries that signed up to Kyoto had met their targets - which virtually none of them have - the fall in the world emissions on 1990 levels would be 41 versus 42 which is a difference of one per cent,'' he said.

"That is a meaningless outcome because the Kyoto Protocol for all its symbolism has not in practice been effective.

"That is the reason why Australia has not been willing to ratify it, although unlike most of the countries that have ratified it, we are probably going to meet our Kyoto target of 108 (per cent emissions reduction) over 1990 levels.''

Of course, everyone (including Turnbull) should also read the recent Nature article about the failure of Kyoto as well.

In fact, if he hasn't already done so, I don't see why Howard would not be citing this article as supporting what he has long been saying. (And the other thing that needs constant reinforcing is that the government has not ignored making reductions in greenhouse gases even though it did not ratify Kyoto.)

The continuing bad luck of JW Howard

It seems to me that when the Australian dollar was at it weakest some years ago, public perception was that this was a matter of some embarrassment to national prestige.

Now the dollar is at its highest level since 1984 (!), yet there is no beneficial perception in the public mind. What's worse, Toyota takes the opportunity to point out that it is making its operations unprofitable and raise the issue of tariff protection again, which always has popular appeal even though it makes little economic sense. According to the report just linked to, Senator Carr's initial reaction was reject further tariff protection to the car industry, yet it leaves open the likes of Kevin Rudd, SA premier Mike Rann and the unions to make sympathetic sounds about the importance of keeping manufacturing alive, and arguing over tariffs again.

The public perception will be that Labor will do more to keep manufacturing here, even though it doesn't seem to me there is any legitimate criticism to be make of Coalition support to the industry thus far. The anti tariff forces in Federal Labor will surely win, and its very likely that support Labor does supply will be pretty much along the same lines as what the Coalition might be talked into anyway.

Just dumb bad luck for the Coalition again, I reckon.

No way to run a country

China vows to clean up polluted lake - International Herald Tribune

Last week I referred to an article that talked about severe pollution problems in a famous lake in China.

It seems that the government has decided to clean it up, but look at the way the wheels turn there:

This spring, urban sewage and chemical dumping caused an explosion of bright green pond scum that coated much of the giant lake with a fetid algal coating. Panic quickly followed in Wuxi, a nearby city that depended on the lake to supply drinking water for its 2.3 million residents. Officials were forced to shut off the drinking water supply for several days.

Er, yes, sounds serious. Yet there initial response had been to to arrest the local farmer who started the warnings:

Several local officials have been fired or demoted, and state news media have reported that regulators have already closed as many as 1,000 factories in the area.

But the new crackdown has not helped Wu Lihong, a local environmentalist who has spent more than a decade trying to force official action. Wu, a feisty peasant, had repeatedly protested against the chemical factories and the local officials who protected them.

Wu was arrested shortly before the algae crisis and was later convicted in August on questionable charges. He is now serving three years in prison, even as his direst warnings about the lake have come to pass.

Alien invasion saves John Howard?

Mystery Comet Explodes into Brightness

Clearly, the current space shuttle mission is actually a welcoming party, but they'll probably be disintegrating before they can say "Klaatu barada nikto".

Clutching at straws, you say. Tell that to your new comet-dwelling alien overlords!

Howard's record by Hartcher

Typical. The Sydney Morning Herald's Peter Hartcher has an article that leads the News Review section of the paper this morning, but it seems not to be on the web. Called "Smashing the Myths", it deals with several favourite anti-Howard memes and lists the evidence for or against them. I can summarise the myths that Hartcher debunks as follows:

1. John Howard has made more Australia more selfish (except for the fact that they both donate much more money now and volunteer more time)

2. Howard can't work with Asia (except that in fact Australia has been more engaged with Asia than ever). Hartcher notes that even Keating dropped this line last month, when he said "any clown" could manage relations with Asian powers. (I had missed that.)

3.Howard has ruined the immigration programme (in fact has more immigrants than ever, and with less public resistance to it than when Keating was in.)

4. The economy is strong mainly because of the mining boom (as Gerard Henderson noted earlier this week, economists don't agree).

5. The 2004 Free Trade Agreement with the US sold out the national interest and would cause economic damage. (There is no reporting of the harm it has caused because it has caused none.)

So far so good, in the sense that Hartcher cites a lot of evidence to support his "myth busting" under each of the headings. When he gets onto the Howard negatives, though, the evidence becomes questionable.

The negative list is:

1. Howard took Australia to war in Iraq on a false premise. Well, at least he is not saying "Howard lied" about this. Hartcher cites the US Senate Select Committee on the pre-war intelligence. Hartcher might be a bit more even handed by adding that even the likes of Kevin Rudd believed the "false premise" too.

2. Howard and the Howard government have told lies. Here Hartcher really goes off the rails for a minute, as the evidence he cites is public opinion polls indicate most people believe it! Yeah, right, that's the way to 'get to the truth' of this proposition, Peter. Why do we need journalists at all if the polls will tell us what happened.

3. The Howard government has increased regulatory burden on businesses. Well, guess I can't dispute that, but it is part and parcel of introducing a new tax (GST) that, as far as I can tell, is deemed a great success.

4. The government has treated some immigrants and refugees punitively and manipulatively. In fact, I accept some criticism of the government about this, but at least it is remarkable how boats with would-be refugee claimants are no longer drowning in the Timor Sea.

5. The Howard government wasted a decade denying man-made global warming was real. Hartcher actually makes a point I was not aware of: Howard initially gave high praise to the Kyoto treaty. I didn't recall that, and shows that all politicians can make mistakes!

Overall, it was a good article.

Tattoos you may regret

Maybe I will get around to commenting on the Dumbledore was gay schtick soon, but in the meantime the story has meant fame for a 36 year old (non gay) Dad with a huge Dumbledore tattoo on his back. Really, isn't having large tatts done to please children enough to bring you to the attention of the Children's Protection services?

Anyway, here's some tattoo comedy (maybe it started out as a dolphin or something):

How not to win friends in the government

Three rate rises ahead, says ANZ - FederalElection2007News - FederalElection2007

Presumably, Mike Smith of ANZ does not think it likely he needs to have friends in the Howard government, with his prediction not just of a rate rise in November, but two more to come after that.

This is another case of terrible luck for John Howard. As far as I can tell, no one can point to any actual policy of the Howard government that is leading to the current pressure for interest rate increases (matters such as droughts, the US home lending crisis, and house price increases seem to be all that is cited.)

George Megalogenis points out today that nothing Rudd would do as PM has any prospect of affecting interest rates in a downwards direction in the short to medium term, so it's not like people can expect relief on home mortgages by voting Labor.

Howard is still arguing that relaxing IR laws will have an inflationary effect, and therefore interest rates will still be lower under the Coalition. But, of course, Labor will argue that Howard and Costello have already failed their last election "promise", so why believe them now, and that is likely to be the argument that will stick in voter's minds. (After all, it is politically difficult for the Coalition to suddenly push the line too hard that the recent interest rates are really out of its hands.)

Things are not looking good for Coalition recovery...

Read this, Labor Party

Time to ditch Kyoto : Article : Nature

When Nature magazine runs a commentary arguing that the Kyoto treaty is hopeless, you know something is up:

In practice, Kyoto depends on the top-down creation of a global market in carbon dioxide by allowing countries to buy and sell their agreed allowances of emissions. But there is little sign of a stable global carbon price emerging in the next 5–10 years. Even if such a price were to be established, it is likely to be modest — sufficient only to stimulate efficiency gains³. Without a significant increase in publicly funded research and development (R&D) for clean energy technology and changes to innovation policies, there will be considerable delay before innovation catches up with this modest price signal.

On present trends, for another 20 years, the world will continue installing carbon-intensive infrastructure, such as coal power plants, with a 50-year lifetime. If climate change is as serious a threat to planetary well-being as we have long believed it to be, it is time to interrupt this cycle.

The commentary even argues that the much touted (by Greenies) idealist symbolism involved in getting all countries to sign up to Kyoto works against it:

The notion that emissions mitigation is a global commons problem, requiring consensus among more than 170 countries, lies at the heart of the Kyoto approach. Engaging all of the world's governments has the ring of idealistic symmetry (matching global threat with universal response), but the more parties there are to any negotiation, the lower the common denominator for agreement — as has been the case under Kyoto.

The G8+5 Climate Change Dialogue, established in 2006 to convene the leaders of the top 13 polluters, was a belated recognition of the error of involving too many parties, each with dramatically different stakes and agendas. In September, the United States convened the top 16 polluters. Such initiatives are summarily dismissed by Kyoto's true believers, who see them as diversions rather than necessary first steps. However, these approaches begin to recognize the reality that fewer than 20 countries are responsible for about 80% of the world's emissions. In the early stages of emissions mitigation policy, the other 150 countries only get in the way.

Kyoto critics 1; Labor Party idealists 0.

Yes, but...

Climate is too complex for accurate predictions - earth - 25 October 2007 - New Scientist Environment

This report notes:

Climate change models, no matter how powerful, can never give a precise prediction of how greenhouse gases will warm the Earth, according to a new study....

The analysis focuses on the temperature increase that would occur if levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubled from pre-Industrial Revolution levels. The current best guess for this number – which is a useful way to gauge how sensitive the climate is to rising carbon levels – is that it lies between 2.0 C and 4.5 C. And there is a small chance that the temperature rise could be up to 8C or higher.

To the frustration of policy makers, it is an estimate that has not become much more precise over the last 20 years. During that period, scientists have established that the world is warming and human activity is very likely to blame, but are no closer to putting a figure on exactly much temperatures are likely to rise.

Which is why I argue that the case for keeping CO2 levels down based on ocean acidification is more sound.

Thinking about comedy

Despite my previous complaint that I did not find Summer Heights High funny, I ended up half watching most episodes, partly out of curiosity to see if I would eventually come around to enjoying it, and also simply because there was nothing else of interest on.

Nothing changed in the course of the series. In fact, my problems with it only increased over time. For example:

* I am surprised that there was not more public comment on the use of a Downs Syndrome actor in the show, given the questionable role he was given. Those of us who don't know the actor and his family cannot say that his involvement was exploitative, but doesn't having real life actors with a degree of disability playing fictional roles in which they are exploited or mistreated due to the same disability make people uncomfortable?

* There's no doubt that Chris Lilley is good at acting the roles. But trying to expand a sketch show format's 5 minutes of unrealistic silliness (particularly with something over the top that "Mr G" would do) into a series is too much of a stretch and just ruins the comedy for me.

* The show looked expensive to make, given the large number of actors and extras on the set. Australian films and series routinely look underpopulated, and this one did not have that problem at all. But this only made me resent it more. Seems such a waste of effort on a comedy/satire which I didn't like.

* The show almost certainly suffers the problem that is common to much British comedy now: it is written by a single person and there seems to be no one to act as a filter. (The whole plot about the drug death based musical strayed too far from vaguely plausible reality for far too long to be funny.) Mind you, there is a major lack of sensible filtering going on at The Chaser too, even though it is a team. (I can only enjoy about 50% of that show now, and the degree of annoyance with the other 50% is very offputting. I never care if I miss it.)

* More generally, this show made me wonder about how long British and Australian TV comedy based on deeply unpleasant characters with no redeeming features whatsoever has now been popular. Let's see, we've had The Office (although I stand to be corrected on that, I saw very little of it), Absolutely Fabulous, Nighty Night (now there was a show which I watched purely out of perverse interest in how unpleasant it was,) Alan Partridge (actually, he did make me laugh, but I don't think the character is well known in Australia. Have a look at this clip from his chat show to get a general idea.)

Fawlty Towers was perhaps the start of the plague of this sort of black comedy, but I think the unpleasantness of comedy characters has become much worse since then. (You could occasionally feel sorry for Basil, after all.) It is interesting to note that this style has never really caught on in the US in the same degree. (Of course, American TV comedy has its own major problems over the last decade, but that's a different post.)

I just wish British and Australian comedy writers would give this style a break for a decade or two.

A joke of dubious taste

This from Jimmy Kimmel:

All of California is on fire. The smoke is so thick in Malibu, you can barely see Britney Spears’ vagina.

Shuttle/ISS sightings alert

Hey, this trip by the space shuttle is going to provide a series of good, early evening sighting opportunities for Brisbane, and (presumably) the rest of Australia. Go on, take pleasure in high technology and go out to spot it. (The space station and shuttle combination makes for a very bright object.)