1980’s justified

Long term readers may recall that, apart from They Might be Giants, my other main pop music interest has been David Byrne and Talking Heads.

Tonight, I was looking at a Youtube of Once in a Lifetime, as I was going to show it my son.  But he was too busy hunting dinosaurs on the iPad, so he didn’t pay much attention.  I’ll get him to watch it yet.

But the thing of interest is that this upload of the clip (done in Jan 2010) is still attracting recent comments.  (I presume it must the version that everyone watches when they search for it.)

And generally speaking, nearly everyone commenting seems young, but very appreciative.   I like this one:

my parents will do the arm thing and say "same as it ever was" all the time!! LOLOL

And this comment:

Such a cool video even till today

and

 Best. Video. Ever

That’s nice.  I feel the 1980's doesn't have much to be ashamed of after all.

Dr Who Christmas

I'm not the world's biggest Dr Who fan, but still, I like to comment on it sometimes.

This year's Christmas special was, I thought, a very pleasing combination of mad, clever, funny and touching. It was also, I thought, much better directed than some of the previous season; it hung together pretty well.

Let's hope the forthcoming season works a tad better than the last, which had it moments, but not quite enough of them.

Must catch up with TMBG

My favourite band, They Might be Giants, spend a lot of time doing kids albums lately, which I don’t usually buy, even though they write some pretty catchy stuff that usually gets them a Grammy nomination.

But I think I will get the current one: Here Comes Science. Most of the songs seem to be up on Youtube, and I like many, including this one:

And I’ve also found a video for another song of there’s from a couple of years ago. Since we all like drinking and smoking puppets, it’s worth a look:

Watch it while you can

It was a couple of years ago that I mentioned I had seen (and then bought) the DVD for the 1999 "movie" of Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat. As that happened around Christmas, it's become a minor family tradition to watch it at the this time of year; hey, it might not be Christian, but the story is not inappropriate for the season.

We all still really like it: as I've said before, I think it does a filmed musical stage production in about as perfect a way as I can imagine.

As for the musical highlight, I've always really liked this song (A Pharoah
Story) at the start of the second act, sung here by the lovely Maria Friedman. While this part is not staged in any way to give you an impression of what the rest of the DVD production looks like, it sounded pretty good through my computer speakers, so have a look.

I see that an earlier Youtube I had up has been pulled for breach of copyright. I expect the same fate this one too, especially as the guy seems to have put the whole movie on Youtube. That really must push the patience of Mr Lloyd Webber. So enjoy while you can:

Christmas Greetings 2010

Three videos

1. Sega can be played in all sorts of places now (read the comments following this post too: quite witty.)



2. The funniest ads I saw all year, from Gruen Transfer.

3. I never cared for Rudolph anyway (you can skip through the first minute or so)

Not exactly Christmassy

I’ve been looking around The Guardian’s Comment is Free Belief section, and it’s pretty good.  (Generally speaking, I preferred The Guardian’s website when they gave more prominence to CIF articles on their main page.  Now you have to make the extra click, and I miss a lot of stuff there.)

This article about modernising Hinduism is pretty interesting.  Apparently, the Hindu America Foundation has a report that tackles the caste system head on.  I was interested to read this part:

Noting that there are defenders of the caste system, not just the curmudgeon and cruel among Hindus, but the likes of Voltaire and Diderot who fought against the monotheistic intolerance of Christians and Muslims, to sociologists like Louis Dumont who argued that the "distribution of functions leads to exchanges", to the great Indophile, Alain Daniélou who argued that caste does not equate to "racist inequality but… a natural ordering of diversity," the HAF report argues that a birth-based hierarchy is unacceptable, that inequities against and the abuse of the Dalits/SCs is a human rights issue, and that the solution to this social ill is available within Hindu sacred texts themselves, and that Hindus should be at the forefront of putting an end to the system of birth-based hierarchy as well as taking the lead in energising the Dalit community to fight discrimination.

It's always good to see how outsider intellectuals justified crap systems.

Another ocean issue

Oh, that's good. [Sarcasm] Another way in which ocean pH may be a problem:

Scientists already know that a drop in ocean pH affects the carbon cycle, reducing the carbonate ions that organisms like corals, mollusks and crustaceans use to build shells and external skeletons. Now, a new study shows that a CO2-induced increase in acidity also appears to disrupt the marine nitrogen cycle. The finding, to be published December 21 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, could have ramifications for the entire ocean food web.

But what practical effect this may have is completely unclear:

Nitrification decreased, compared to controls, in all experimental cases, with the effect ranging from an 8 percent reduction to a 38 percent reduction. "What we saw is almost uniform across the ocean, or at least in all the experiments we conducted, which seems to suggest this is fairly consistent effect," says Beman. Importantly, in some cases the change was quite large. "So it could have a pretty substantial effect on how nitrogen is cycled in the ocean," he says.

One potentially positive effect could be a reduction of nitrous oxide—marine nitrification is a relatively big source of this greenhouse gas. "But the larger, much more difficult things to predict are the connections to other organisms and processes," says Beman. Less nitrification would make fewer nitrates available to the plants and other organisms that use them to make vital proteins, making it more difficult for them to thrive. This in turn means less food would be available to the animals that eat those nitrate-using organisms, and so on up the food web.

Oyster and coral alert

Time for some ocean acidification news.

Oysters grown on the West coast of American have been having a hard time.  As this story noted in 2009:

In 2005, when most of the millions of Pacific oysters in this tree-lined estuary failed to reproduce, Washington’s shellfish growers largely shrugged it off.

In a region that provides one-sixth of the nation’s oysters – the epicenter of the West Coast’s $111 million oyster industry – everyone knows nature can be fickle.

But then the failure was repeated in 2006, 2007 and 2008. It spread to an Oregon hatchery that supplies baby oysters to shellfish nurseries from Puget Sound to Los Angeles. Eighty percent of that hatchery’s oyster larvae died, too.

Now, as the oyster industry heads into the fifth summer of its most unnerving crisis in decades, scientists are pondering a disturbing theory. They suspect water that rises from deep in the Pacific Ocean – icy seawater that surges into Willapa Bay and gets pumped into seaside hatcheries – may be corrosive enough to kill baby oysters.

Well, now it seems the suspicions of high CO2 having something to do with this may have been confirmed.  Someone had the good idea to actually takes measurements of the water used:

Increased pCO2 and decreased pH have been shown to negatively impact larval development in C. gigas (Kurihara, 2007). Periods of elevated pCO2 in May and June 2010 correlated with commercial losses at WCH.

In another study, decreased pH was shown to decrease shell strength of pearl oysters (although it doesn’t appear that they looked at the pearls themselves.)

And for corals, another recent study indicated that a combination of even modest water temperature increase and lower pH has a big effect on coral growth and survival:

Holger babysat 40 of the baby corals for 42 days under four different conditions: In the first tank, the researchers simulated 1C of ocean warming; in the next, they simulated ocean acidification by bubbling carbon dioxide through the tank to lower the pH by 0.25; the third combined this warming and acidification; and a fourth tank maintained current ocean conditions as a control.

“The different conditions had absolutely no effect on the ability of the larva to settle – to stick to the rock surface – which may be good news for people who are trying to grow coral gardens,” Aaron says.

But post-settlement, some of the young coral polyps were showing the effects ‘global warming’.

“The biggest surprise was that neither temperature alone, nor acidification alone had a big effect on the growth or survival rate [95%] of the coral, even though the warming prompted zooxanthallae expulsion as expected,” Aaron says. “Once we combined this moderate warming and acidification, though, we saw significant impacts: growth rate of the polyps – for both the skeletal and soft pulpy mass – plummeted to almost half of the rate seen under the other three conditions, and they were twice as likely to die [90% survival rate].”

The link to the actual study abstact is here.

And finally, if these Europeans have it right, the decrease in aragonite saturation (important for some corals and shellfish) is going to be on a rapid downward spiral this century right around the world:

If you want to read the tiny words, and look in more detail at the original, go here.

Sweet bug

It seems this has been on Youtube for a while, but it just made an appearance on Cute Overload.

I reckon it looks remarkably like how you would expect a kitten to act. (In reality, as some people at Youtube have noted, it was probably thinking they were aphids it was trying to kill. But then, kitten play is just build up to backyard wildlife murder, so what the hey...)

Seems a nice man

I recently mentioned Geoffrey Rush as an Australian actor who actually doesn’t bother me.  (He has managed to get through the insidious effects Australian films have on me.)  I see today that he has an interview in LA Times which is pretty interesting.  I liked this part about his first (short) trip to LA:

Tell me about the first time you ever set foot in L.A.
It was in 1996. James L. Brooks had seen a copy of Shine before it was released, and he asked to meet with me. So I flew over and spent six hours with him. He had a little camera, and I read and did improv, and then I just got back on the plane and came home. It was weird—there was a limo waiting to take me to my $500-a-week theater job.

What was your impression of the city from those six hours?
Well, I’m suddenly driving down Pico Boulevard. You see the palm trees, and you think, Oh my God, it’s just like Brisbane but bigger! It didn’t seem unfamiliar, because it’s known to us through so many movies. It just had a complete air of unreality, and I thought, This is kind of an adventure. [Brooks] gave me some Simpsons booty to bring back. I got [an animation] cel and some shirts and stuff. It was a fun, amazing weekend.

Must be a fantastic Happy Meal toy this week

Mum gives birth at Geelong McDonald's restaurant

Climate notes from all over

Yes, it's cold in England and much of Europe, and climate change skeptics are poking fun at those who in the last decade predicted the virtual end of winter snow for those countries currently under a lot of it.

Yet, Real Climate has a post about the ways that it may indeed be all related to AGW, and in particular to do with sea ice over Canada way. But it's all very complicated and no one knows for sure.

Now, 2010 is bound to be high on global average temperatures, but it does seem a year most notable for sudden extremes in all aspects of weather - the Russian heatwave, the Pakistan floods, the one in a 1000 year flood of Tennessee. And now England and Europe being unusually cold.

Given the slow but (on the longer scale) steady progress of global temperatures (Tamino has an excellent post showing how all the temperature data sets collected and calculated in different ways are still all following the same path,) it will be interesting to see whether the public over the next year or two becomes convinced of global warming not so much due to high local temperatures, but more because of erratic weather swings.

Meanwhile, Judith Curry's blog continues to be a big puzzle. As someone commented somewhere, it's like she decided to rebuild climate science from the ground up. On the positive side, she doesn't dispute the very, very basics of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, but when she gets into anything else, it's actually very hard to tell where she is going. (In fact, some posts, talking about science generally, give the impression she is seeking to rebuild science itself from the ground up.) She seems to find many things "interesting" and worthy of her looking into further, but at this rate is seems she will come to some conclusion by about 2020.

None of her mainstream climate critics have said much about her lately, a bit to my surprise, but Judith went to the AGU meeting last week in San Francisco, and her post showing her slides ends with these two:

Slide 14

In conclusion: The drive to reduce scientific uncertainty in support of precautionary and optimal decision making strategies regarding CO2 mitigation has arguably resulted in:

• unwarranted high confidence in assessments of climate change attribution, sensitivity and projections
• relative neglect of defining and understanding the plausible and possible worst case scenarios
• relative neglect of decadal and longer scale modes of natural climate variability
• and conflicting “certainties” that result in policy inaction

Slide 15

A way forward is the decision analytic framework of robust decision making under deep uncertainty, which emphasizes scenario discovery and uncertainty analysis and identifying a broad range of robust decision strategies.

Implications of such a strategy for climate research are an increased emphasis on:

• exploring and understanding the full range of uncertainty
• scenario discovery using a broader range of approaches
• natural climate variability, abrupt climate change, and regional climate variability

Clear? No, it wasn't to me either.

But - I am happy to see that James Annan, who was strongly critical of Curry's "Italian flag" post several weeks ago (I don't think she has finished talking about them yet) saw her AGU talk, and has this to say about it:

He also emphasised the importance of only speaking in areas where you had earnt credibility based on your published record, which formed an interesting backdrop to Judith Curry's talk later that day. She devoted her time to accusing the IPCC of ignoring the tails of the pdfs of climate sensitivity that were clearly presented in the very figure that she repeatedly referred to and explicitly emphasised in the summary ("values substantially higher than 4.5C cannot be excluded"), then read out a few cartoons and finally, literally out of nowhere, concluded that therefore they had underestimated the magnitude of decadal variability and that their detection and attribution results were unsound! Really, I'm not making this up, it was actually how it happened. These latter topics were first introduced on her concluding slide and there was no hint of supporting argument. She also talked about the "modal falsification" of Betz 2009, (which I haven't read but just googled now, is there a free version somewhere?) so I asked if and how this "falsification" (and she used the scare quotes herself) was distinct from assigning a low posterior probability in a Bayesian sense. She replied that it could be considered the same, at which point some of the audience were shaking their heads and others were nodding in agreement. From which I conclude that nobody, including Judith, knows what Judith means. Unfortunately, she didn't seem to be anywhere to be found at the end of the session and I didn't see her at any of the other relevant sessions where people actually dealing with these sorts of issues were actually presenting concrete results.

So, I am not alone in not being able to make head nor tail of Curry, and my lack of science qualifications are not the reason why. Romm's description of her as a "confusionist" seems as apt as ever.

Sequelitis

Well, it's good to see my complete puzzlement as to why Disney would chose to make a sequel to Tron is shared by many critics. As Dana Stevens writes:

The idea to make a sequel to the 1982 movie Tron—which was a hit neither with most critics nor with the public and which has amassed, at best, a campy cult following among a niche of gamers and sci-fi fans—is an arrogant overestimation of the original's value. The grandiose hype for Tron: Legacy (Disney Pictures) reminds me of those Manhattan "vintage" stores that try to trick you into paying $120 for a stained raincoat because, hey, it's old! Well, no, I don't want an expensive old raincoat that was unremarkable the first time around, nor do I want an expensive ($170 million) remodel of a 28-year-old matinee flick that was forgotten for a reason.

I agree totally, although I would add that I didn't realise there was a market for old raincoats in Manhattan.

Mind you, Disney has history with making sequels to bad movies. Recently, my wife borrowed for the kids the 1975 movie Escape to Witch Mountain. I had the vague idea that it had been a moderate success for Disney, as they had made a sequel (Return from Witch Mountain), which I had never seen either.

Well, I can tell you, Escape is an extraordinarily bad kid's film, even by the standards of the normal poor regard Disney had developed for its live action product in the 1970's (before the studio underwent its animation led recovery in the 1980's.) It has simply excruciating acting, and special effects that make those in (TV) Lost in Space look sophisticated. Yet, the DVD still has the "extras" on it, with interviews with the director, the child actors, etc. It's not even so bad that its good: it's just bad with no redeeming features.

But: do not get confused with Race to Witch Mountain, the recent Dwayne Johnson Disney vehicle, which really is quite good.

Ahead of the media

Jack Shafer in Slate notes that there has been recent US media attention to the illicit use of nutmeg to get high. He goes into the history of the use of the spice for this reason.

I would just like to point out that, for anyone who hadn't heard of this before, if you were reading my blog in 2006, you would have known this unusual fact already.

Stay ahead of the media, and learn oddball facts. Read this blog.

Saving time

This will only be understood by a limited number of people. The rest of you shouldn’t look.

No holes, yet

Nature reports about the LHC:

Predictions of mini black holes forming at collision energies of a few teraelectronvolts (TeV) were based on theories that consider the gravitational effects of extra dimensions of space. Although the holes were expected to evaporate quickly, some suggested that they might linger long enough to consume the planet. But scientists at the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector now say they found no signs of mini black holes at energies of 3.5–4.5 TeV. Physicist Guido Tonelli, the detector's spokesperson, says that by the end of the next run, the LHC should be able to exclude the creation of black holes almost entirely.

That's good; but let's hope that it doesn't unexpectedly create a naked singularity or two: I don't think anyone has any sound idea what that could lead to.

Tolkien in Narnia

So, Voyage of the Dawn Treader has attracted very mixed reviews, and, I thought, was certainly the end of the series after the first weekend box office in the States was only about $24 million: half that of the first two movies in the series. 

Yet, overseas box office has been surprisingly strong, bringing the total take to over $100 million already.  The studio says it’s happy; so who knows, maybe  there will be another.  I can’t remember a single thing about The Silver Chair, though, so I have no idea how readily it might be adapted.

Anyhow, that’s not the main point of the post.  Narnia movies always stir up debate about whether the religious themes are too obvious or heavy handed.   (It’s a handy criteria for judging reviews of the films:  if they complain about them being so Christian, they can safely be ignored.  It’s like complaining to the waiter that there’s tomato in your bolognaise sauce.) 

This time around, I have enjoyed some of the comments in a Guardian story on this aspect of the movie.   Having the readership that it does, there are many who complain about the Christian element and virtually consider it a corruption of children to have such ideas appear in their fiction.  But I liked this response:

Still think its a bit amusing (and strange) how people complain about Christian themes being 'corrupting' when woven into the subtext of one narrative or another - yet Lady Gaga gyrating and wagging her bacon clothed crotch about while singing 'lets have some fun this beat is sick, I wanna take a ride on your disco stick' (And yes seven year old kids do mimic the dance moves and sing the lyrics completely innocent of any ulterior connotations) doesn't conjur nearly the same level of pompous ire. I ain't got a problem with Lady Gaga necessarily (though as you will have guessed I'm not much of a fan of her music), just think the contrast in response is amusing.

And, of course, you can't have a discussion of Narnia without comparisons with Tolkien breaking out. Readers may recall that I belong to the (seemingly) very small club known as People Who Think Tolkien is Vastly Over-rated in Every Respect. The movies bored me;  before they came I had tried to read the first book of LOTR twice; and when that didn’t work tried the Hobbit. Bored and gave up for lack of interest every time. I haven't spent a lot of time trying to analyse why: I just think he's stylistically a dull writer, and I just don't understand what it is, thematically, that people respond to.

But now,  in this Narnia thread, someone made a comment that rang very true to me:

I like many posters on her, I grew up in an atheist family. I discovered the books through friends at school, and thoroughly enjoyed them, more than the Tolkein books as the main characters weren't exclusively male, and the adventures didn't drag on and on ad-nauseum, with battle followed by journey, followed by battle etc. Also, good and evil were things that could happen because of the choices a person made; not like the Tolkein books, where good and evil, are just depersonalised 'forces' which people either succumb to or not, which I think is a far more primitive, 'superntaural' take on morality, which avoids the truth, that people chose to act in a particular way, but can also change and chose not to.

I have to admit that, not having got more than about 100 pages into LOTR, I am not one to really judge, but that explanation of the treatment of good and evil in Tolkien sounds right to me, and may be why I don’t respond to him.

And now let’s end with a couple of Guardian readers who complain about the Anti-Lewis (Philip Pullman’s), books (which I haven’t read, but like to kick anyway):

Narnia might be a bit shit but The Golden Compass is the most preachy nonsense for years. My nieces/nephews all loved Harry Potter and Narnia, but really did think they were getting a lecture from PP

I couldn't agree more. I read his trilogy, which started off well enough, but not too far into book two I felt that at times I might as well just have had Pullman shouting "Religion is bad!" in my face. His message was as subtle as a kick in the balls and really put me off (even as an atheist).

Wednesday’s List

* Regarding Hugh:   So, Hugh Jackman nearly took out an eye in front of Oprah’s audience.   Which leads me to wonder:  why don’t I like Hugh Jackman as a screen presence?   He doesn’t seem to be the jerk in real life that I always half suspected Mel Gibson was.  Is it just that he has appeared in Australian films, to which I am famously allergic?  I don’t think so; Geoffrey Rush and Noah Taylor turning up in a foreign movie doesn’t bother me.   Is it because he has become the international poster boy for iced tea?   Maybe:  the only wussier product a some time action man could have chosen to endorse is Max Factor.   No, I’m not entirely sure, but there is something about him I don’t care for. 

*  Ross looks on the bright side:   Ross Gittins goes against the popular wisdom and tells Australia that selling minerals instead of making things is not that big a problem for our economy.  Must be an outbreak of Christmas optimism.

*  Image I’d rather not see:   for some reason, German doctors thought it would be a neat idea to watch a live human birth via MRI.  The resulting x-ray-ish image makes the world’s creepiest new born baby photo. 

An unusual explanation for the Holocaust

I have a vague recollection of reading before that Hitler might have had syphilis, but I’m not sure if I had heard of the theory that it was catching it this way which may have led to his anti-Jewish obsession: 

An encounter with a Jewish prostitute in Vienna in 1908 may have given Hitler neuro-syphilis and provided the 'deadly logic and blueprint for the Holocaust' as well as giving him a reason to attempt to eliminate the mentally retarded, according to evidence presented at the Royal College of Psychiatrists.

That theory supported by 'ample circumstantial evidence though no final proof', according to a team led by Dr Bassem Habeeb…

There has been speculation that Hitler had the infection since his personal doctor, Theo Morrell expressed his own suspicion in his private diary. But the theory has never been rigorously examined, say the researchers.

'But if Hitler's life is looked at through the lens of a syphilis diagnosis, one clue leads to another until a pattern of infection and progressive infection emerges, a disease that may have defined him from youth as an outsider and that progressively ravaged his body and mind.

Hitler put syphilis high on his political agenda, devoting 13 pages to the disease in Mein Kampf. The job of 'combating syphilis… the Jewish disease… should be the task of the entire German nation,' he wrote. 'The health of the nation will be regained only by eliminating the Jews'.

The theory might hold up better if it were not believed by the very nutty Dr Morell.  In fact, I see from his Wikepedia entry that at least two of his treatments in 1944 may have directly sent Adolf over the edge:

During his interrogation after the war, Morell claimed another doctor had prescribed cocaine to Hitler and at least one other doctor is known to have administered it through eyedrops after he requested it in the hours following an almost successful assassination attempt on July 20, 1944. Cocaine was routinely used for medical purposes in Germany during that time but Morell is said to have increased the dosage tenfold - despite this the concentration was still weak as the eyedrops were only 1% cocaine. Overuse of cocaine eyedrops has been associated with psychotic behavior, hypertension and other symptoms; given the weak dosage, it's more likely they were caused by Methamphetamine of which these are also common symptoms. However historians have generally tended to discount any effects of Morell's treatments on Hitler's decision-making.

Anyhow, I can see a new poster slogan for safe sex: "Avoid World War! Use a condom."