Sounds like an excellent point

 I didn't know that about polio - so I assume most people wouldn't.

I also see on Twitter that the come back to this by COVID anti-vaxxers is "but the COVID vaccine is not a normal vaccine!  It's new and untried and you have to keep getting boosters..etc etc".

I've said it before, and say it again:   a significant chunk of the Right has spent 20 to 30 years telling each other that there's a massive conspiracy in the scientific community (in the form of climate change.)

Having become so acclimatised to believing one massive conspiracy, they find it easy to swallow another conspiracy that is also actually against their children's interest to believe.

 

Good luck, New York

That invisible movie

I watched the 2020 movie The Invisible Man on Netflix on the weekend, and it's very good.

I kept thinking it's a mash up of #MeToo, Marvel-esque "hi tech in the wrong hands", and ghost story (invisible presence in the house).  But it worked for me.  Most of all, it's the suspense that works well - lots of good directorial decisions as to swapping between point of view and other neat ideas.

It also has a terrific plot surprise that I did not see coming at all.   (Ha, I just realised that sounds like a pun on the title, but it wasn't intended as such.)

Now, without ruining my general praise for the movie - I think the ending was bold, and a bit confronting, and perhaps not set up as being as well justified as it could have been.   But I still like that the director (who also wrote the movie) and studio went with it.   It's the sort of ending it's possible to have decent discussion about afterward.

Anyway, I strongly recommend it. 

Not back to normal

I noticed on Insiders yesterday that the journos who had been to Rome and Glasgow with the PM thought that life was looking pretty normal over there (Rome was "pumping" I think Phil Coorey said), and that Australia needed to get used to thinking we have to do the same.

Yet later in the day, I was reading about the surge in COVID cases in Germany, France, and Ireland (all  with high vaccination rates), and in a lot of the Eastern European countries (which have low vaccination rates, and seem particularly prone to believing Right wing culture warring on the matter.)

The WHO is worried, and I would guess that what happens with hospitalisation and death rates in the region in the next few months ought to deliver some more important lessons on the value of vaccination.

But it probably won't be simple.  This weird pandemic will likely show some countries or regions with patterns that are hard to understand.   

Update:  As for Italy itself, I just noticed from Nov 6:

Italy has recorded 6,764 COVID cases in the past 24 hours.

Health authorities have confirmed the deaths of 51 people.

Italy’s COVID-related death toll has passed 132,000 – making it the second-highest toll in Europe after the UK.

 Update 2:   look at the waves of infection in the Netherlands:

 

And the government has introduced more restrictions due to the current outbreak, leading to this:

Thousands of people paraded through the centre of The Hague on Sunday afternoon to protest at the coronavirus measures currently in place in the Netherlands. New rules, including the return of face masks in shops and wider use of the coronavirus pass system, came into effect on Saturday. Their number included a number of supporters of extreme-right group Voorpost, identified by their use of the the Prinsen flag – an orange, white and blue version of the Dutch flag used by the Dutch Nazi party during World War II. Police estimated the crowd to be at 20,000 to 25,000, website Nu.nl reported. Read more at DutchNews.nl:

 Another news article contains this explanation (my bold!) about the new face mask rules:

Face masks Masks will once again be compulsory in all public buildings where coronavirus passes are not required. This includes: Supermarkets and shops Libraries Government buildings and council offices Airports and railway stations Colleges and universities when moving between locations People in contact professions, such as hairdressers, will again have to wear masks, but not sex workers. Those who do not wear a mask can be fined €95. Masks remain compulsory in taxis and on public transport.

A broken country

Sue them all

 He must be due for some involuntary admission to a psych ward soon, surely:

How tempting to just advise "get over yourself"...

I have some misgivings about re-publishing this advice column from The Guardian, both because I am not entirely sure it's not a prank, and because if it's not, I don't really want to be part of encouraging other young people to similarly writhe in the somewhat narcissistic world of "what sexuality/gender identity am I today"?  

I am 16, and identify as an ace lesbian (NMLNM, or non-men loving non-men). I have questioned my sexuality since the age of 12 or 13, thinking I was bisexual. I downloaded TikTok, which allowed me to explore my identity more and interact with other queer young people. Until this summer, I questioned my identity multiple times a day (exhausting and not affirming), but I slowly began to feel confident in labelling myself as a demi-romantic, asexual lesbian (I like to use labels). However, that feeling didn’t last long. I felt dysphoric a lot of the time, and I hated my breasts. Fortunately, after about a month, I rediscovered the term “demigirl” and it just fitted. I am also trying out she/they pronouns, but haven’t told anyone. My gender is quite fluid – some days I feel more neutral, other days ultrafeminine.

I am open about my sexuality at school and online, and would happily tell most people that I am gay, but don’t want to “come out” to my parents. I think it’s a combination of fear, not of rejection (they are supportive of the LGBTQ+ community), and the fact that I hate the idea of having to “come out” if you are queer; I don’t want to contribute to our heteronormative society. Should I tell my parents so they have time to process it, or should I wait until I have a partner to introduce to them? Also, I feel obliged to inform them of my pronoun change, but I don’t want to be the one to teach them how to use she/they pronouns. I wish they would educate themselves. If I tell them my gender and/or sexuality, I don’t want them to perceive me differently. I know how they react is not in my control, but ideally our relationship will stay the same or improve.

So she both wants to label herself and resents the idea of labelling herself.   Makes sense!  

Seems to me a good dose of "stop thinking about yourself" might be helpful here.    

China follows the ultra conservative path to eliminating homosexuality?

 As many have noted in Tweets following, this may be the same as what goes on in Iran (and perhaps some other Muslim countries?):

Old decrepit commentator farewells old decrepit commentator

I've briefly noted before that old-before-his-age conservative commentator Currency Lad, who has resumed blogging, has developed into wordy, muddled, quasi-opaqueness in his writing.   I offer an example this piece about the retirement of Alan Jones, which seems to me to swing wildly between praise and condemnation of his "skills", only to finally settle on "he'll be missed".  Mind you, I saw on Youtube Andrew Bolt doing his farewell to Jones, and it was somewhat similar.   Seems a lot of his defenders have quite a lot of mixed feelings about how he operates.

Let there be no lack of clarity from me - he's a long time disgrace and done more harm to the country than good, by far.   I find his personality extremely grating, and have no understanding of how such a bombastic, thinks-he-knows-it-all-but-doesn't style succeeded for so long in media.  

I'm going with Krugman

The Adams tweet in full:

So, Wikipedia indicates he's a Democrat, ex cop, late convert to veganism who admires Putin and refers to himself in the third person often?  Sounds like New York got itself a strange version of SGT Terry from Brooklyn Nine-Nine as Mayor.

A special talent

The other trifecta: three Liberal PMs in a row that people on both the Left and Right (and everyone in between) consider to be completely uninspiring failures.

Some surprising renewable fuel technology described

Making useful fuels from the sun and air?   But the guys are German - I think I can trust them:

For the past two years, researchers led by Aldo Steinfeld, Professor of Renewable Energy Carriers at ETH Zurich, have been operating a solar mini-​refinery on the roof of the Machine Laboratory in the centre of Zurich. This unique system can produce liquid transportation fuels, such as methanol or kerosene, from sunlight and air in a multi-​stage thermochemical process.

Read about it here.

But I want it to work

Drinking alcohol to stay healthy? That might not work, says new study.

I wish it weren't true, but it does suggest a reason other studies might be misleading:

Increased mortality risk among current alcohol abstainers might largely be explained by other factors, including previous alcohol or drug problems, daily smoking, and overall poor health, according to a new study publishing November 2nd in PLOS Medicine by Ulrich John of University Medicine Greifswald, Germany, and colleagues. 

It's become impossible to exaggerate how appalling the Republicans have become

 Also - Rupert Murdoch, who is happy to watch his network burn down American democracy.  

Update:   despite much earlier hoopla about what a devastating result this is, the end result is going to be pretty close - 

Maybe 49% to 50.5%.

And the galling thing will be that if it ended up in those figures with a Democrat win, perhaps 50% of Republicans would believe it was Democrat fraud.

Update 2:  OK, maybe more like 48% to 51%?   But still, you only have to shift half of the gap to win next time - or 1.6%.  

Update 3:  seems to be settling on 48.3% to 51.0%.  Some progressive with the name "Princess" got .7% which would otherwise have been Democrat vote, too, probably.  So more like a 2% win...

A rather Orwellian turn

As a counterpoint to the rabid pro-China propaganda that is CGTN, I sometimes watch videos from the rabidly anti-China Youtube channel China Observer.  I don't know which country it comes out of, but it does make some pretty detailed critiques of everything happening in China.

This recent one, about a famous pianist who has (like many, many other famous folk) suddenly dramatically fallen out of favour with the government, highlights a "citizens police" force (well, a bunch of older people, it seems, more than happy to make money by being State informants) which put me very much in mind of the 1984 Anti-Sex League - a concept which, in the book and movie, I found inadvertently funny.

But in China, it seems that something close to it is becoming a reality:

I don't even like horses, but still...

...I feel a little sorry for wild introduced animals that face culling.

A report in Nature:

Scientists say Australian plan to cull up to 10,000 wild horses doesn’t go far enough

Oh, Gladys

I have a few observations to make about Gladys Berejiklian and her appearances at ICAC, which I am guessing many people will share:

*   she sounds like she makes for a pretty uninspiring "girlfriend" - not only very willing to diss the seriousness of a former lengthy relationship, but sounding so drearily bored with a lover's demands in phone calls that she would re-allocate money in a flash, just to make him stop bothering her; 

*   using the phrase "love circle" was rather cringe;

*   as Laura Tingle said on Insiders on Sunday, it's a bit (no, very) worrying to learn that such large amounts of money for essential services are capable of being allocated (or unallocated) in such a cursory fashion.   I mean, a few million here, a hundred thousand there; but $170 million to a regional hospital? 

*   those who thought she was a mere victim of love, so to speak, look very silly now.   Her instinct that her political standing was going to be irreparably damaged was correct.   She'll end up on the company directors boards circuit anyway, making money by looking serious.

Alcoholism in graphic detail

Google was reading my mind again, and knew that I would find interesting a rather graphic news special from a Grands Rapids (of all places) TV station about people with their livers destroyed by alcoholism being denied liver transplants:

 

What surprised me the most was how openly it showed the son being on death's door at home, while his mother tried to track down a hospital that might do a transplant.   I reckon if anyone has a son or daughter drinking heavily each day, regardless of their age, they ought to make them watch this to see what a miserable death it can lead to.   

Update:  and here's an article from 2019 at The Atlantic about the ethics of denying alcoholics a transplant.

Brexit chickens coming home to roost

The Guardian notes:

Almost twice as many voters now believe Brexit is having a negative effect on the UK economy as think it is benefiting the nation’s finances, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer, carried out during budget week.

The survey comes after Richard Hughes, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, said his organisation calculated that the negative impact on GDP caused by the UK’s exit from the EU was expected to be twice as great as that resulting from the pandemic.

Hughes said Brexit would reduce the UK’s potential GDP by about 4% in the long term, while the pandemic would cut it “by a further 2%”. “In the long term, it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic,” he said.

And another poll:

The survey by Savanta ComRes revealed that 52% believe that Brexit has delivered little, while 36% believe that Brexit has been a success.

In the five years since the referendum in June 2016, which saw Britons vote to leave the EU by a 52% to 48% margin, public attitudes have remained rigid and in a near 50/50 split should another referendum on membership be held.

However, the findings of the survey, of over 2,000 people, suggests that a significant proportion of Leave and Conservative party supporters are deeply underwhelmed by life outside the EU.

26% of Leave voters and one in third Conservative voters say that exiting the bloc has been a failure.

One in five of the voters for Boris Johnson’s party say that a policy to re-join the EU would improve the Conservative’s chances at the next election.

It's somewhat puzzling that there are 36% "believe it a success", but I guess that's the power of pointless populism.   

As far as I can tell, though, there is no commentator who supported Brexit who can point to how its been a success.

Helen Dale, for example, would rather post 500 cat photos on Twitter, or go on about identity politics, than actually address the economic failure of a position she supported.

Hype noted

I strongly suspect this is correct:

Experts warn the federal government has overhyped the potential for carbon farming to offset a huge volume of emissions in Australia’s push to net zero by 2050.

Australia currently emits about 490 million tonnes of carbon a year and the government’s long-term emissions reduction plan, released last week, said up to 100 million tonnes could be offset by farmers through the commercially unproven practice of soil carbon sequestration.