ABC The Drum Unleashed - Turnbull: why I will vote for Rudd's CPRS
I can't let Malcolm Turnbull's speech go without comment.
Even though I have always been cynical about emissions trading schemes, and doubt that they will work as well as economists like to think they could, Malcolm Turbull's speech yesterday was the best presented and most logically argued justification for an ETS for Australia that I have ever heard.
But of course, logic and reason (and principled stands on issues) don't count for much in politics. You have to take into account "the vibe", and with lots of TV images of lots of snow in America and Europe, and a lot of poorly understood reports on "Climategate", public opinion is swinging away from taking any serious action on CO2 emissions for the moment. There is still a majority supporting action, but the skeptics/disbelievers/deniers (there is no good term for them collectively) are feeling very buoyed at the moment.
The public is fickle on this topic, which is an inherently hard one to explain. (By that I mean not only emissions trading schemes, but climate change science itself is not "intuitive".) That the Right is increasingly identified itself with those who disbelieve a consensus view of science is a major tragedy.
To revive political will on the subject, we actually have to hope that 2010 is demonstrably a hot year globally, and the early indications are that this may turn out to be true.
As for convincing people that ocean acidification is a major issue: I don't know how you do that when it'll be a while yet before clear evidence of its effects on the ocean ecosystem can be irrefutable. It is clear that ocean pH is lowering, but will it take proof of the population of some sea creature falling as a result to overcome ignorance based skepticism of the topic? But then again, how did scientists manage to convince governments that the ozone hole depletion was a major issue before they could show ecological effects actually happening? Maybe that example of science successfully convincing the public of a need for action is reason to not be completely pessimistic.
1 comment:
Steve,
My opinion on the reasons for mistrust of climate science on the right are as follows:
1. You have a few people like me who are scientifically literate who think that the warming case has been greatly overstated.
2. (The big one) Most people on the right see the enthusiasm for "Climate control measures" on the left as ways of introducing new taxes and controls on personal liberty.
3. People loosing property rights (e.g. farmers not being able to clear their land)
4. (One of my biggest bete noir's) The notion by the warminsts that H. Sapiens can't deal with *ANY* slight change in climate.
The prob here is that humans are exceptionally well suited to changing climates, indeed it's likely one of the reasons we took over Europe from the Neanderthals.
That's my 2c worth anyway....
Keep up the good work.
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