Water everywhere

There seems to be a lot of flooding going on in the Northern Hemisphere recently:

*  the Northern Indian floods, which are described as being the result of an early monsoon season for that part of the country, could have killed at least a thousand people.  The most remarkable image was perhaps this one:

although it would be good to know the size of the statute we are looking at, to give us some scale.*

The papers are not giving too much detail as to how unusual this weather event is, but Jeff Masters at Wunderblog explains more:

According to the Indian Meteorological Department, Uttarakhand received more than three times (329%) of its normal June rainfall from June 1 - 21, and rainfall was 847% of normal during the week June 13 - 19. Satellite estimates indicate that more than 20" (508 mm) or rain fell in a 7-day period from June 11 - 17 over some regions of Uttarakhand, which lies just to the west of Nepal in the Himalayas. Dehradun, the capital of Uttarakhand, received 14.57" (370 mm) of rain in 24 hours June 16 - 17....

The June 2013 monsoon rains in Uttarakhand were highly unusual, as the monsoon came to the region two weeks earlier than normal. The monsoon started in South India near the normal June 1 arrival date, but then advanced across India in unusually rapid fashion, arriving in Pakistan along the western border of India on June 16, a full month earlier than normal. This was the fastest progression of the monsoon on record.

Masters does acknowledge, however, that some are saying deforestation, dam building and mining with inadequate environmental oversight has contributed to the scale of the floods,  and I would presume there is some truth in that.

*  Central and Northern Europe:   the recent floods there have been reported as being of record height for some rivers and cities (the countries affected include Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Germany.)  But to get more detail on the event, it's again worth looking up Jeff Masters:

The primary cause of the torrential rains over Central Europe during late May and early June was large loop in the jet stream that developed over Europe and got stuck in place. A "blocking high" set up over Northern Europe, forcing two low pressure systems, "Frederik" and "Günther", to avoid Northern Europe and instead track over Central Europe. The extreme kink in the jet stream ushered in a strong southerly flow of moisture-laden air from the Mediterranean Sea over Central Europe, which met up with colder air flowing from the north due to the stuck jet stream pattern, allowing "Frederik" and "Günther" to dump 1-in-100 year rains. The stuck jet stream pattern also caused record May heat in northern Finland and surrounding regions of Russia and Sweden, where temperatures averaged an astonishing 12°C (21°F) above average for a week at the end of May. All-time May heat records--as high as 87°F--were set at stations north of the Arctic Circle in Finland.

 Masters notes that it is increasingly argued that these changed patterns are part and parcel of global warming:

 If it seems like getting two 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods in eleven years is a bit suspicious--well, it is. Those recurrence intervals are based on weather statistics from Earth's former climate. We are now in a new climate regime with more heat and moisture in the atmosphere, combined with altered jet stream patterns, which makes major flooding disasters more likely in certain parts of the world, like Central Europe.

 * Canadian floods:  the phrase "record flood"is appearing for the current Calgary event is appearing even in places like the Wall Street Journal, so it must be true.   The reason for the flood is again being put down to a "blocked"weather system (and this time it is not Jeff Masters talking):

The heavy rain is also the product of an odd set of circumstances, says Stephanie Barsby, CBC's meteorologist in Edmonton.

The massive weather system responsible for the storms was still trapped over southern Alberta on Friday by a high-pressure system to the north and winds blowing toward the west, the opposite direction of the prevailing winds throughout Canada.

"That high pressure system is preventing the storm from moving north, and the Rockies are preventing it from moving west, so it's stuck right over the regions that are seeing the flooding," said Barsby.

"It's unusual to see a system stuck in one place for such an extended period of time."

 All of these events have reminded me of a recent letter that appeared at Nature Climate Change regarding increased flooding due to a warming planet.  The article got a bit of publicity in the mainstream media, but not that much.  Here is what the ABC said: 

But now researchers from the University of Tokyo in Japan have done just that, presenting global flood risk for the end of this century, based on the outputs from 11 climate models.

The team predicts a large increase in flood frequency in parts of Asia, Africa and South America. It forecasts more moderate increases in northern Australia and Tasmania.

In certain areas, they predict flood frequency will decrease, including eastern and northern Europe and central North America.

You can see what Tim Flannery says in that report too.   As he is continually grossly misrepresented on water issues for Australia, it's a wonder Andrew Bolt hasn't been there already trying to twist something out of it.   It is a sign of Bolt's lack of intelligence (or rather, ideological motivation not to understand an issue) that he continues to have a ridiculous inability to understand that increasing the water cycle can mean both longer droughts and worse floods in some places.

I see that there is news this morning of another study about how climate change will affect the Indian monsoon with increased variability, in the region which is presumably the most unable to afford adaptation to floods.

In any event, I have been saying since the extraordinarily widespread Australian floods of 2011  that increased flooding and drought may well be the first climate change effect which really becomes very clear and convinces government and voters that serious action on CO2 needs to be taken.  Recent events suggest I may be right.

*  Update:  Here's the same statue, I think, at a different angle:

Here it is, from the same direction, in flood:

And by the way, who is that guy on Shiva's head?