* If you watch from the start, it is clear that Biden had a frog in his throat from the very beginning, and was rushing his answers. It did sound plausible to me that he had a cold. If he didn't, his voice still sounded affected by something. Perhaps an ice cream before walking on stage? 😀
* Yes, he sometimes became flustered and lost his train of thought when trying to respond to the cavalcade of lies and boasting that this format let go unchallenged by moderators. But it is not as if where he was trying to go in his answers was not clear, in (I think) all cases.
* He was completely unprepared for a camera concentrating on his facial expressions while listening to Trump. I would be very surprised if that is a problem not fixed by the next debate.
* All of that said, it remains as ludicrous as ever for anyone to claim he is suffering from dementia. It is a delusion derived from selective editting and a barrage of propaganda. Yes, he looks old. He clearly understands complicated issues and remembers stuff.
* Of course it was not as energetic a performance as a younger person may give. But the contrast of a sincere man doing his best in contrast to a narcissistic idiot who is trying to ride back in on immigration scaremongering (it was continually brought up by Trump) was clear.
* My theory that Biden looked far better if you didn't rely on a gaffe highlight reel is backed up by some of the immediate polling which indicated people agreed Biden had a bad debate, but it's not changing voting intention much:
Of course, turning in the best performance in a debate only matters if it translates into votes — so we also asked poll respondents (both those who watched the debate and those who didn’t) which candidates they were considering voting for after the debate. And if there was any silver lining from the debate for Biden, this was it: The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote. That said, Biden did lose a small share of potential voters: Post-debate, 46.7 percent of likely voters said they were considering voting for him, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than before the debate. (Note that this was not a straight horse-race poll; respondents could say they were considering voting for multiple candidates.)
So nope, I'm still not thinking Trump will win.
A final point: I usually think Chaz on Planet America is too much into shallow horse racing style analysis. But last night John Barron was insanely negative about how dire the debate had been for Biden and Chaz was trying to pull him back. I don't doubt Biden will see worse polling as a result, but if he has a better performance in future, I am not convinced it is irrecoverable.
11 comments:
Compare and contrast.
Biden in 2012.
https://x.com/i/status/1806724955515838684
He doesn't have dementia but he now definitely demonstrates behaviors consistent with mild cognitive impairment.
I am writing about this tomorrow however a few points
first it was easily the lowest rating debate in history which tells me the Yanks are yet to think about the election.
focus groups for both MSNBC and CNN all focussed on Trump and his lies and evading of the questions to the total surprise of all pundits. Have we reached peak trump?
Debates are overrated. Kerry made mincemeat of bush yet lost.
"He doesn't have dementia but he now definitely demonstrates behaviors consistent with mild cognitive impairment."
This may be true, but the point is "does it matter?", when the opponent is so bad, and himself shows signs of cognitive decline.
This may be true, but the point is "does it matter?", when the opponent is so bad, and himself shows signs of cognitive decline.
It matters for me because I have long argued that the Democrats were foolish not to prepare a successor for the 2024 election. It matters because Trump might get another term.
Let the dust settle. I haven't followed this closely but it seems that despite all the Democrat despair the polls don't demonstrate a big drop in Biden support.
Independents still won't vote for Trump. His constant lies and hyperbole have been left mostly untouched by the media which is a disgrace.
John, I understand the wish for a younger candidate, and of the potential ones I always think Newsom looks and sounds reasonable. But I don't know enough about Democrat internal politics to understand why he or no one else wanted to run against Biden. As such,my attitude is that it is what it is, and I think the complaints of those in the media about the failure of a Biden replacement to step up are unhelpful and badly misplaced. It's particularly damaging, I think, when the likes of Jon Stewart goes on about Biden frailty, seemingly endorsing so much of the actual propaganda arm of the MAGA crowd, who have dishonestly editting video to support a fantasy (he's demented - he doesn't know where he is) for years.
I have just seen the Planet america special on the debate and it was over the top.
how can anyone state Trump was presidential when they admit he lied a lot and evaded questions. Indeed it was so bad it was embarrassing.
Trump has family history of dementia and it is showing at his rallies.
Not Trampis said...
I have just seen the Planet america special on the debate and it was over the top.
how can anyone state Trump was presidential when they admit he lied a lot and evaded questions. Indeed it was so bad it was embarrassing.
Trump has family history of dementia and it is showing at his rallies.
Trump rambles on and has never demonstrated superior intelligence. He is certainly is worse now. Some don't care about his constant lying and verbal gaffes. As I previously stated his constant lies and gaffes may turn some undecideds against him. That's my hope.
Steve I'm not arguing for a younger candidate now. It is too late. Rather what they should have done after 2020.
Fair enough, John. You might actually agree with me, then, that the rush of calls from the likes of the New York Times to replace him are badly misplaced? I mean, they didn't even wait to see what polling effect the debate has had...
And Homer - I agree with what you have been saying, except I wouldn't call Trump as having obvious dementia either. His rambling, and difficulty with pronouncing some words, is just ageing cognitive decline of the normal variety, like Biden's (if you ask me).
I agree that John Barron's freak out on Planet America was ridiculous over-reaction, and pretty much out of character for him.
Replacing him now guarantees a Trump victory.
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump lies bring him undone. I previously stated that a Biden presidency will be an administration presidency and Trump presidency will be very different with him making all the major decisions; a scary prospect. The swing voters might decide that given Trump's commitment to prosecute as many of his political opponents as possible, his hyperbole and lies, that Biden is a safer choice.
People always rush to the dementia claim but Trump demonstrates age related cognitive decline and perhaps mild cognitive impairment. The lines between these categories are fuzzy.
By the way, John, I have thought sometimes lately that Biden's sometimes frozen looking facial expressions remind me of some people I have met with Parkinsons Disease. And the gait could be consistent of that too. But this has been in people with a pretty advanced case of the disease.
However, the Washington Post has helpfully posted a link to a 2021 medical review of Biden, which appears much more open and detailed than what happened under Trump, when the "mad as a cut snake" Ronny Jackson was his doctor. The gait is put down to arthritis in his spine (and a foot injury?), and besides, it's impossible to believe that if he had Parkinsons he would actually run again.
The 2021 medical report:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/President-Biden-Current-Health-Summary-November-2021.pdf
The latest report is here:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Health-Summary-2.28.pdf
Oh, now that I Google it, I see that a British professor has suggested Parkinsons.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-13579501/What-wrong-Biden-doctors-view-Presidents-senior-moments-TV-debate.html
Still, as I say, I find it wildly unlikely that this could be the true explanation.
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