Blockage

Overweight? Then you’ll have to buy two seats - News & Advice, Travel - The Independent

Have a look at the photo that accompanies this article. It is claimed to be genuine, and it if is, it surely highlights the fact that the morbidly obese on aircraft is a safety issue if they are not able to take up two seats.

Interestingly, Australian airlines claim it is not necessary to have a policy on it:

A spokeswoman for Virgin Blue said most overweight people who did not fit into one seat were aware of the problem, and many bought two seats for their own comfort.

''There is no formal policy'', the spokeswoman said.

''However, if a guest does not fit into a seat on a full flight they will be moved to the next available flight, and we have no plans to follow the example of Air France-KLM,'' she said.

A spokeswoman for Qantas said the airline did everything it could to meet the needs of customers.

''Should a customer require extra space on a flight, we seat them next to an empty seat where possible,'' she said.

''However, the only way for a customer to guarantee extra space is to either purchase two economy seats or fly business or first class.

Those who think they don't have a problem fitting into a seat must cause some problems from time to time, though.

Uncertainties detailed

The real holes in climate science : Nature News

It would appear that "climategate" (and perhaps now the Himalaya glacier mistake in the IPCC report) has led to some prominent climate scientists sounding humbler. Gavin Schmidt at Real Climate has been sounding more modest lately, and he features prominently in the above article, which I hope Nature keeps available for some time.

It's a very good explanation of those areas of climate science which are still poorly understand and/or subject to very uncertain predictions. In short, they are:

1. regional climate predictions,
2. the effect on precipitation,
3. the role of aerosols, and
4. use of proxies for past climate reconstructions.

The short story is: the atmosphere is really, really complicated, and building accurate models of its behaviour on the scale needed for good regional predictions is very, very hard.

I think this probably goes against the modern intuition, at least of younger people who use computers all the time. I suspect that even the use of sophisticated games software, which deal with thousand of options and combinations and seem to create incredibly detailed "worlds" inside a mere household computer, gives the false impression that modelling a column of air (and extending it globally) could not be so hard.

So it is good now and again to be reminded that big uncertainties remain.

But: the big danger of articles like this is that, as we all know, AGW deniers will use absolutely any mistake (no matter how minor) or admission of lack of knowledge to claim that it is totally rubbish and unreliable.

The Nature article does have short "box" on enduring climate change myths, but it just deals with them briefly.

Of course, what deniers also miss is that there is (as far as I know) no particular reason to assume that the areas in which knowledge are still lacking are all matters which will eventually be resolved in a way relatively harmless for humanity. They could all be matters which end up worse than current predictions.

The other issue that people always forget is ocean acidification, about which I have not posted for a while, but there is plenty of new material out there. I remain strongly of the view that it alone is reason to stop CO2 as soon as possible, as it is extremely difficult to tell where the ecological changes that will bring will take us.

Super cool power

No more power lines? / The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com

Interesting article here on superconducting power cables, which sound to be more advanced that I would have guessed:

A tour of American Superconductor’s factory found the company creating flat metal tape out of “high-temperature superconducting” (HTS) oxide materials and costly silver, then slicing it into thin flat strips. The strips wrap around a pipe carrying liquid nitrogen, which cools the cable to minus 346 degrees Fahrenheit....

Cost, however, has long been a major issue. However, the price gap is closing, American Superconductor says. A 1,000-mile length of superconducting cable capable of carrying 5,000 megawatts would cost about $8 million to $13 million per mile, a recent company white paper says. That’s about on par with the 
$7 million to $10 million cost per mile for an equivalent conventional 765 kilovolt line.

I wonder what happens if the nitrogen supply leaks. The article says that being below ground, the cables are more terrorist proof, but I wouldn't be so sure.

Credibility gap

Rape case puts sharia police in difficult position | The Jakarta Post

A group of sharia police personnel unusually just sit in the back of a pick-up patrol vehicle while making the rounds in downtown Banda Aceh, Aceh province, on Monday.

No raid is conducted that day at beauty salons or other public places considered prone to sharia (Islamic law) violations. No stern actions are taken or arrests made that day.

“We are decreasing the intensity of raids these days,” Aminah, the spokeswoman for the Banda Aceh female sharia police force, said.

The credibility of sharia police in the province has been completely, and rightly, destroyed following the rape of a university student by three sharia police officers last week.

“Because of this case we don’t dare warn or advise people in violation of sharia law. They will fight back and insult us if we do so. It’s better to keep a low profile at the moment,” Aminah said.

The article goes on to note that there is quite a popular movement to get sharia police banned in Aceh.

Whipped up in an hour?

Dezeen - Lad Musician Nagoya by General Design

I love it when architects come up with a concrete windowless box as a design concept, and then get praise for it. I always suspect the project must get knocked over in an afternoon on the computer.

Bill Gates on reducing CO2

Bill Gates: Why We Need Innovation, Not Insulation

Nothing too complicated here: he simply makes the point that no where near enough is being done in R&D for the necessary long term goals of reducing CO2.

A post viewing recommendation

Flying the Secret Sky: The Story of the RAF Ferry Command

I very much enjoyed this documentary on the ABC a couple of nights ago. It's still available for viewing on ABC iView.

It's always good to learn about aspects of the Second World War which are new to me and make for fascinating stories.

The good oil

Fish oil slows burn of genetic fuse in ageing | Science | The Guardian

Taking fish oil supplements is said to protect against heart disease, improve survival rates after a heart attack, reduce mental decline in old age and help to prevent age-related changes in the eye that can lead to blindness. Research has also shown that rodents live one-third longer when given a diet enriched with fish-derived omega-3.

Although omega-3 fatty acids have powerful anti-inflammatory properties and lower levels of some blood fats, the mechanisms behind these effects are poorly understood. The new research suggests that omega-3 has a direct effect on biological ageing by slowing down the rate at which protective caps on the ends of chromosomes shorten.

The caps, called telomeres, are made from copied strands of DNA and have a similar function to bookends or the plastic ends of shoelaces. They prevent the ends of chromosomes – the "packages" of DNA in the cell nucleus – becoming damaged and keep the DNA organised and contained.

Congratulations - your genitals have rights

'Naked scanners' may breach human rights | News.com.au

The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) has written to the Government expressing concerns about the proposed installation of the scanners, saying they may violate the right to privacy outlined in the Human Rights Act.

Yes, who would have guessed that my penis has the right not to be viewed on a sketchy black and white headless body image (I understand the systems are planned to obscure the face) by a bored security guard in a remote room who probably has to watch about 3000 images a day.

I hope someone in Britain goes to the Commission over the scandalous human rights issue of public urinals without privacy screens.

Glaciers are confusing!

Well, there's been a lot of media coverage over the IPCC mistake of referring to Himalayas glaciers "disappearing by 2035."

Perhaps the best analysis of how the error evolved is in a comment by Dan following Tim Lambert's post about the controversy. It would appear that the source of the error was in a 1999 India Environmental Port article, which changed a 1996 Russian's rough estimate of how long it would take all glaciers to melt from 2350 to 2035.

New Scientist helped perpetrate the error in a 1999 article, and now claims (wrongly, it appears) that its story was the original source of the error. NS journalist Fred Pearce also says that Indian glaciologist Hasnain had used 2035 in an interview with him. (In New Scientist he says it was an email interview; yet in The Times he is reported as saying it was a telephone interview. If he has the email, I would certainly like to see it. Pearce says Hasnain now admits it was just a rough estimate.)

Pearce's 1999 story claims that the 2035 figure appears in Hasnain's ICSI report, but it's apparently not there at all.

I would like to see directly what Hasnain says about this now. Was he responsible for the error in the Indian Environmental Portal article too? Or is it possible he's "confessing" to something he said in a interview 11 years ago of which he does not have a transcript? (He complains today that he never used 2035 in his research papers, and was never consulted by the IPCC before it used that figure. He's not denying he quoted the figure to Pearce, but I still wonder.)

Anyhow - there is no doubt at all that this is a very, very bad look for the IPCC, especially given IPCC head Pachauri's decision to come out swinging on a clearly wrong figure.

But - that was not really the point of this post. I wanted to note how confusing the whole topic of glaciers (and in particular the effects of their loss) appears to be. In particular, : just how important to Indian rivers is water from glacier melt?

This 2005 Nature report of Barnett & Ors about the dangers to water supply from melting glaciers (and less snow) is an important one. In it, we find in a section talking about the Himalaya-Hindu Kush area:

The hydrological cycle of the region is complicated by the Asian monsoon, but there is little doubt that melting glaciers provide a key source of water for the region in the summer months: as much as 70% of the summer flow in the Ganges and 50–60% of the flow in other major rivers[40,41,42]. In China, 23% of the population lives in the western regions, where glacial melt provides the principal dry season water source[43].

This figure in bold sounds very high, but is repeated in many other places, although I won't link to them now. The references supporting the claim are not available for free online, and the abstracts at least don't seem to repeat it.

On the other hand, Science has quoted a note by an American hydrologist Donald Alford, the purpose of which is:

... to present the results of a preliminary analysis of the hydrologic contribution of the 5000 -7000+ m altitudinal belt of the Nepal Himalaya to the annual streamflow volume of the major rivers of Nepal, and to assess the hydrologic role of the glaciers within this belt.

His conclusion (although it appears to be a very tentative one, pretty much a "back of the envelope" calculation I reckon) is that glacier melt only accounts for 4% of total annual streamflow of the rivers of Nepal. (I think all Nepalese rivers end up in the Ganges.)

Big difference, it seems. Is the issue that:

The Indus and Ganges Rivers currently have little outflow to the sea during the dry season

as stated in an interesting recent study that found one Himalayan glacier seems to have put on no "weight" since the 1950's, since there was no radioactive layer from the atom bomb tests at that time. (So, if the Ganges has little outflow at all in the dry season, might it be that a very small feed from glacier melt might still account for 70% of it?)

The point of this "nuclear glacier" paper is that loss of glacier volume may be occurring by "high elevation thinning", and this has not been taken into account when working out rates of glacier loss. But, then, at the same time I have to admit that the paper repeats the mistake that:

The surface area of glaciers across the TP is projected to decrease from 500,000 km2 measured in 1995 to 100,000 km2 in 2030

when it should have been (see Dan's comment above) 2350.

Furthermore, someone in comments at Real Climate has linked to some background notes used at the recent AGU conference for a press presentation which has lots of relevant information. (Be warned, it is a very big .pdf file.)

This is actually well worth reading carefully. They point out that Himalayan glaciers are behaving differently in different zones, but overall they are losing mass. Their estimate of the average rate of Himalayan glacier loss (measured by area, not volume, I think) is anywhere from .05% to .01% per annum (see page 14). If the higher rate is true (although they seem to think it unlikely) that would be 20% loss in 40 years. (Total loss in about 200 or so years, then, I guess; which isn't so far off the 350 years that we earlier mentioned.)

But as to the effect on water supply of Indian generally, the conclusion (see page 42) is:

As we have calculated, melting glaciers (specifically, negative mass balance components of the melt) contribute an estimated 1.2% (perhaps factor of 2 uncertain) of total runoff of three of the most important drainages, the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra combined. The seasonal flow regulation influences and the negative mass balance is more important in local drainages close to the glacier sources, where glaciers can dominate the hydrology in arid regions, but on the scale of the subcontinent, glaciers are secondary players in looming hydrologic problems, which stem more from population growth and inefficiency of water resource distribution and application.

So, there are some mighty confusing figures being flung around as to how important or unimportant glacier melt is to Indian water supply.

Is it possible that the very high figure of 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges (as mentioned in the Barnett Nature paper) is actually including basin snow melt and not just glacier melt? That could explain a lot. If climate change reduces snow in those areas, it may well be much more important issue than glacier melt, at least further downstream. And the title of the Barnett article is, after all: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions.

Besides which, even without worrying about snow and glaciers, at least one study (and I am sure there are more) suggests climate change:

could influence monsoon dynamics and cause less summer precipitation, a delay in the start of monsoon season and longer breaks between the rainy periods.

The reliance of India on the monsoon is pretty remarkable:

The summer monsoons are responsible for approximately 75% of the total annual rainfall in major parts of the region and produce almost 90% of India's water supply, he said.

Anyhow, despite all this reading, I still remain quite confused on the issue. Glaciologists and hydrologists seem to have done a pretty bad job at dealing with the issue without confusing themselves, as well as the public.

As expected

BBC News - Venezuela's economy in further slide

A good summary of the Chavez led crumbling economy (and infra-structure) of Venezuela.

What you suspected about gridiron was right

I Was Watching a Commercial and a Football Game Broke Out

This post quotes from the WSJ:

According to a Wall Street Journal study of four recent broadcasts, and similar estimates by researchers, the average amount of time the ball is in play on the field during an NFL game is about 11 minutes.

In other words, if you tally up everything that happens between the time the ball is snapped and the play is whistled dead by the officials, there’s barely enough time to prepare a hard-boiled egg. In fact, the average telecast devotes 56% more time to showing replays.

So what do the networks do with the other 174 minutes in a typical broadcast? Not surprisingly, commercials take up about an hour. As many as 75 minutes, or about 60% of the total air time, excluding commercials, is spent on shots of players huddling, standing at the line of scrimmage or just generally milling about between snaps.

I've never tried to watch a game on TV, but certainly you get the impression watching movies about it that nothing much happens on the field, and it turns out that impression is true. It seems to be more about large groups of people gathering together to amuse themselves with anything but what is going on in the field of play - as Australians do during tedious games of cricket. (At least gridiron has the good grace to be finished in one afternoon.)

Irony

Islamic Solidarity Games cancelled over Gulf dispute

The Islamic Solidarity Games, due to be held in Iran in April, have been called off because of a dispute with Arab countries over what to call the Gulf.

The games federation in Saudi Arabia said the Iranian organisers had failed to address its concerns, particularly about the planned logo and medals.

These bear the words "Persian Gulf", but Arab countries, who call it the Arabian Gulf, reject the term.

That's handy

Iran has put up its very own pro-nuclear website, which (as Nature says) sets about "extolling the virtues of its nuclear program."

Included is a map of "Iranian nuclear facilities". Handy for the Israeli Air Force, although who would be surprised if there weren't some slight misinformation in that.

Typical (and Opinion Dominion's simple guide to happy marriages)

Susan Sarandon: sexy, single and 63 | The Observer

This is a long and sympathetic interview with Susan Sarandon, and I find it remarkable for the number of boxes it ticks for what you would expect of a typical Lefty Hollywood star of the modern era:

* at least (I think) 3 long term partners (married or otherwise) mentioned, as well as an affair. It is rumoured that, now 63 and having split with younger partner Tim Robbins, she may be now dating her 32 year old "business partner", but it seems yet to be confirmed;

* happy to do "herbal" drugs - including mushrooms, which I always thought were very much on the hit or miss side of danger - and a very liberal attitude to experimenting with them generally;

* now on a health regime of dubious merit ("dehydrated fruits and vegetables")

It's not mentioned, but I wonder what the chances are of her being sympathetic to Buddhism?

Actually, one position on which she is mildly surprising is on gay marriage: she won't campaign for it because she is against marriage generally.

More generally, why is it that Hollywood seems to make long term relationships next to impossible? I suspect it may in significant part be due to the long absences from each other when movies need to be made on location. (Careers such as the military suffer the same problem.)

No doubt, being successful in almost any field is a powerful attractant generally to the opposite sex, and places an inordinate amount of temptation in the path of the famous and even moderately powerful. How else can you explain the puzzling sexual escapades of many, many physically unappealing politicians.

Yes, for long lasting marriages no one should be too successful in their work (that is, too rich or too famous), or travel separately too often. They should not do illicit drugs. But they should have children, although that's just my hunch; I can't say for sure whether statistics back that up. (I bet someone has done the research). And they should not sleep with other people.

All pretty simple, really.

An unusual life story

Calm reflections on a turbulent life | The Japan Times Online

I would say his memoirs would be well worth reading.

Wanted for my backyard

Deep Discount on Space Shuttles - NYTimes.com

Only $28.8 million will get you a used space shuttle (plus shipping to Australia, I suppose.)

No one wanted them at an original asking price of $42 million. What is wrong with people these days? And has anyone suggested to NASA to try using E-bay?

You can also get a used shuttle engine for free, if you pay for shipping and handling. Maybe at least that will fit in my backyard.

A good weekend in Brisbane

In January, a good weekend in Brisbane can consist of the following:

* viewing Fantastic Mr Fox at the South Bank cinemas: this is a very enjoyable film, which I see to my surprise, seems to have made little money in the US. (This is becoming a disturbing theme in my assessment of animated films: I was very keen on The Tale of Despereaux and Astroboy, and both were box office duds.)

The Fox is quirky, and a lot of reviewers suspect adults will enjoy it more than children, but I can tell you my kids both found it laugh out loud funny, and "got" the quirk. It's interesting that it continues George Clooney's fondness for playing characters that aren't as smart as they think they are.

Go see it, with or without children.

* going to the Lifeline Bookfest at the Convention Centre. This has become a bit of an institution in Brisbane, now running for 8 days with well over a million second hand books for sale. You can spend a long, long time there, but even with visits limited by the lower attention span of children, I always manage to find something. (This year, I got the Graham Greene novels I recently said I wanted to read.)

One other observation: the Brisbane Convention Centre seems to me to be a particularly nice place, as far as convention centres go. Good location, lots of parking, lots of toilets, lots of headroom. I enjoy just about anything there.

* On Sunday, down to the Gold Coast for a swim followed by chicken and champagne* lunch.

Ocean water at the Gold Coast at the moment is at a very typical and comfortable summer temperature of 24 degrees. It was the subject of much discussion yesterday, with my Gold Coast residing relatives, how you only have to go about 40 km further south and the ocean water always seems distinctly colder, and much harder to enjoy getting into.

I am told it is all about the point at which a northern and southern ocean current meet, and a nephew suggested that it might also have something to do with Cape Byron being further east and trapping the north moving current nearer the shore. Certainly, the water at Ballina a few weeks ago felt very cold indeed.

For years I have been meaning to do some internet snooping to confirm this often observed sudden drop in temperatures off the Australian East coast, and one day I'll get around to it.

Meanwhile, I'll just take it as some sort of proof that God just especially loves Southern Queensland. (Except for those bits of Toowoomba, where He hasn't let it rain much for about 10 years.)

* Well, by "champagne", I mean $7 a bottle Jacob's Creek sparkling. My wife and I still think that it is the best of the sub $10 Australian champagne styles, and at that price in summer we tend to drink it a couple of times a week.

The odd allure of whiter skin

Creams Offering Lighter Skin May Also Bring Health Risks - NYTimes.com

It was only in the last couple of years, I think, that I read somewhere about the popularity of skin lightening creams in India.

The article above talks about the popularity of the creams amongst Hispanic and black folk in America, and how they are often causing serious skin problems:

... it is not as if dark-skinned women are imagining a bias, said Dr. Glenn, who is president of the American Sociological Association. “Sociological studies have shown among African-Americans and also Latinos, there’s a clear connection between skin color and socioeconomic status. It’s not some fantasy. There is prejudice against dark-skinned people, especially women in the so-called marriage market.”..

Users are not necessarily immigrants, said Dr. Eliot F. Battle Jr., who has a dermatology practice in Washington, where he treats side effects from lightening creams “not only containing corticosteroids, but mercury,” a poison that can damage the nervous system.

I guess that, in a somewhat bizarre twist, Obama's election might give encouragement to black Americans to aim high, but do nothing to help decrease prejudice against the darker skinned amongst them.

Some insight into Kubrick

Stanley Kubrick - A dream movie revisited

Last year, I saw the doco "Stanley Kubrick's Boxes" which gave a good account of the directors obsessively detailed movie preparations.

Now, you can buy an extremely expensive book that sets out all of the incredibly detailed preparation Stanley Kubrick made for his never funded film about Napoleon. In the article about it, the author makes some comments which I think are pretty interesting:

"At a deeper level, his never-ending interest in observing human folly was the wellspring for nearly all his films," writes Harlan in the book. "Napoleon was the ideal study subject. One of Stanley's often repeated notions was that, since we are all driven by our emotions, our belief that we might be governed by rational thought is a vain illusion." Kubrick's widow, Christiane, believes he struggled to understand how such a capable man as Napoleon could be so manipulated by the philandering Josephine, or have so hopelessly miscalculated the Russian campaign that defeated him. "When Stanley was young, he played chess for money for a while in New York," she says at the book's launch party later that evening. "[He believed] Napoleon might have learned to control himself better had he played chess. Stanley thought if you are too emotional, you lose."

I presume it was this distrust of emotion which led to Kubrick's pretty consistent inability to convincingly have emotion shown in his movies.

Proof of an afterlife

Johnny Cash releasing another posthumous album

The second biggest pair of undies I've ever seen

Governments’ Go-To Vendors Get it Done

Go to the link to see the photo.

Tell him he's dreaming

Abbott makes play for Greens preferences

I've made the point elsewhere, but I'll repeat it here: Abbott is not showing a firm grip on reality if he thinks he can credibly convince Green supporters to preference the Coalition when he:

a. showed all the policy conviction of a windsock on the issue of climate change over the last 6 months;
b. called climate change "crap" only a couple of months ago;
c. gave arch skeptic Minchin Resources and Energy, and put Joyce on the front bench.

It doesn't matter how big his Green Army will be, if you aren't convincing on climate change, you aren't going to get a Green vote within coo-ee of you.

Yet another possible early test

Seeing a diagnosis: How an eye test could aid Alzheimer's detection

It's about how spotting the death of cells on the retina may be able to used as an early Alzheimer's test. This quote at the end is of particular interest:

"Few people realise that the retina is a direct, albeit thin, extension of the brain. It is entirely possible that in the future a visit to a high-street optician to check on your eyesight will also be a check on the state of your brain."

Innovative uses for radioactivity in the 19th century

What Were They Drinking? Researchers Investigate Radioactive Crock Pots

The article is about a particular water jar, but the introduction is generally of interest:

Radioactive toothpaste, suppositories, makeup: Would-be inventors seeking to capitalize on the discovery of radioactivity in the late 19th century produced a plethora of questionable medical devices and treatments. Among the most famous of these was the Revigator, an earthenware vessel that, according to an advertisement, would infuse drinking water with "the lost element of original freshness -- radioactivity."

Radioactive suppositories? For that inner glow of health, I suppose. Here's more detail from an article at MSNBC:

And a truly amazing advertisement sells Vita Radium Suppositories (High Strength): radioactive suppositories intended for daily use that “are absorbed by the walls of the colon” so that “every tissue, every organ of the body is bombarded by its health-giving electric atoms.”

Ah, I knew it would be on the net somewhere. Here's a link to an original advertisement for them. I see that they are recommended for "sexually weak men" and are "also splendid for piles and rectal sores".

So concerns about sexual performance led to men using radioactive suppositories. Maybe someone accidentally cured their prostate cancer that way.

Handy to know

Blood pressure drugs can halve risk of dementia, say researchers | Society | The Guardian

Apart from the good news at the start of this article, I hadn't heard this before:

...the loss of ability to smell could be an early warning sign of Alzheimer's and prompt earlier diagnosis, separate research suggests. It is known that Alzheimer's can lead to the loss of a sense of smell, although why that happens is unclear. A study in the Journal of Neuroscience, by American scientists working on mice, links the failing ability to smell to the buildup of amyloid, a toxic protein that is an indicator of the disease. Experts said the findings suggested loss of smell could be used as an early indicator of the condition and thus ultimately improve medical care.

Longer lived mini black holes

Production of tidal-charged black holes at the Large Hadron Collider

I see from the above paper that physicists are still looking at certain theorised types of black holes that the LHC might produce, and which might "live" long enough to leave the detector. (I presume instead of instantaneously turning into a spray of decay particles.)

This guy reckons that they are unlikely to be produced in the lifetime of the LHC. (I see that he mentions Plaga's paper - predicting one possible form of black hole disaster - in his footnotes too, even though he makes no comment on it.)

I should be encouraged by the result, but I am still struck by how little they know about what may really happen there.

Reading ramble

The news and my favourite websites are strangely un-engaging at the moment, so I'll talk about what I've read over the last 6 months or so. It's not much, and few are probably interested, but what the hey.

* Graham Greene: I have mentioned here before that I was starting to get into Graham Greene. Since then, I have finished "A Burnt Out Case" (a fairly late novel in his career) and liked it quite a lot. It's sort of dark, well and truly within what I understand to be "Greeneland," but with a tragic redemption at the end, which I think reflects Greene's own complicated views on life and religion. I can recommend it, especially for people with a Catholic background.

But then, I read his early popular novel, "Brighton Rock". It has a great opening, but later I thought some of it was really tortured and outright bad writing. For me, it doesn't really ring psychologically true at all, and I am very puzzled as to why it apparently made his name as a novelist. He clearly developed his prose into a cleaner, more direct and psychologically subtle style later in his career, and I would strongly advise anyone interested in him not to start with this book.

I think I will go on to read some of his most famous novels, such as The End of the Affair, and The Heart of the Matter. But there is no doubt he is a bit of a depressing read overall, and it's not like I want to spend all that much time getting to know his world.

* Young adult time. Australian writer John Marsden is famous for his "Tomorrow" novels, featuring Australian teenage protagonists responding to a (very improbable) Asian invasion of the country. I therefore tried the first one in the series (Tomorrow, When the War Began) when I found it in a second hand book shop. (I saw from the name written inside that it probably was a prescribed read for a grade 9 student.)

I don't have any problem with reading "young adult" books; my natural inclination to be bothered/uninterested in lots of swearing and sex in fiction actually makes it something I should incline towards. (And I'll take Heinlein's "juveniles" over Stranger in a Strange Land any day.) But I doubt that much of it now is written as outright entertainment.

Anyway, as for this book: it's not bad, but I did find it peculiar that Marsden should chose to write from the perspective of a teenage girl, even if she is a pragmatic and strong character. There were some sections involving relationship talk which, while I imagine were probably realistic for a modern teen, I could still imagine teenage boys being completely bored with. This relationship stuff seemed to me to be too clearly didactic, in that they seemed an attempt to get teenage boys to understand things from the female perspective.

I was not impressed enough to be bothered continuing with the series, but it wasn't a complete loss.

* Will I ever find an active science fiction writer I like? I gave modern science fiction another go with John Scalzi's "Old Man's War". The reviews (and the man in the bookshop who recommended it to me) noted that it is similar in style to Robert Heinlein; and it's true, especially in the first third or so where there is a lot of wise-cracking, lively character exchanges, and I was initially impressed.

It has an excellent sequence in which our main character gets his mind swapped into a new, cloned, tweaked and improved version of his body.

Yet, by half way through, the improbability of the setup was starting to bother me, as was the idea that in two hundred years time, military training would still use exactly the same psychological approach that has been in the 20th century.

Then back to a good point: the inter-stellar drive was clever in concept.

Then back to the bad: it sort of peters out a bit, and ultimately left me uninterested in reading the sequel.

The extremely patchy appeal of the novel reminded me of my reaction to Peter Hamilton's "The Reality Dysfunction". I really liked some of its passages, found some other parts a bit slow and irrelevant, and in the last substantial section it seemed to change tone completely to a visceral fight which was very unappealing. Basically, he badly needs more severe editing.

Why do I find it impossible to find a current science fiction writer whose novel I like from start to end??

* More Truman Capote: I'm currently reading "In Cold Blood", after earlier enjoying "Breakfast at Tiffanys." I really like his writing style, and am quite enjoying it, despite knowing that it may not be the most accurate account of the event possible. (I haven't seen the popular "Capote" movie about the process of his writing it yet, and I'll save that until I have finished the book.)

Capote himself certainly did not lead the happiest of lives. I like to use the fact that I have had a relatively happy and stable life as the reason why I will probably always be incapable of creating great art!

Make your own bad pun for this one

Astronauts' urine clogs space station water recycler - Telegraph

Late nights

Conan O'Brien, Jay Leno Bash NBC In Monologues

For an Australian, the most amazing thing about the late night TV scene in America is that it exists at all. 10 to 11 pm (Jay Leno's short lived slot) is considered prime time, and the reason he is being moved is because of the poor lead in ratings he is giving to the local news.

The late show slots start at 11.35, yet you get all this drama around who will do them when the incumbent is due to go.

Is Australia the only country in the world in which it seems no one expects there to be a significant TV audience after about 10.30? It's virtually impossible to imagine Australians being greatly concerned about what starts at 11.30 pm, especially on a weeknight.

The only reason I see these shows now is because cable TV here shows them from around 8.30 to 10.30.

And, incidentally, I remain puzzled as to why O'Brien has rated so poorly in his new slot. I thought he had toned down his sometimes irritating act to just the right degree, and Andy Richter and him are a likeable pairing, as far as these things go. He does remain a seriously strange looking guy though, if you ask me.

I've sort of given up on Letterman over the last couple of years, when it seemed clear to me that he was getting too serious about politics.

I know that the American TV schedule has been like that for decades (it was one of the things that really surprised me about it when I first visited), but I remain puzzled as to how the importance of such late night viewing evolved there.

Near miss

Asteroid or Space Junk? Object Makes Close Pass by Earth Wednesday | Universe Today

It's only 10 - 15 meters across, but it would at least make for a very big flash in the sky.

More details on the mixed up temperatures

Where did global warming go? Here's where...

Yet another excellent post at Skeptical Science showing with illustrations how the Northern Hemisphere cold snap is distributed, and the unusually warm areas that are accompanying it.

In which I get amusement at other people's embarrassment

Publicly Sleeping Salarymen | loneleeplanet

If you read Japanese blogs, you'll know from time to time people publish photos of drunk Japanese men who fall asleep on the train (or elsewhere) in embarrassing positions. I don't usually link to them, as it does feel somewhat unfair to the poor guy who obviously was in no position to consent to the photo, let alone its publication on the internet.

But, with this collection of the "10 of the best" examples of this genre, I'll give up my scrupples for today, especially as some of them are really very funny. (I think the entry on "The Backbender" may be best.)

Persistent and pantless

Cover up or face life in jail, naked rambler is warned - Crime, UK - The Independent

Naked rambler Stephen Gough has been warned he faces spending the rest of his life in prison if he continues to refuse to wear clothes in public.

The former Royal Marine, a veteran of two “boots-only” hikes from Land’s End to John O’Groats, has spent most of the last four years in solitary confinement in Scottish jails after stripping off on a flight to Edinburgh. Since then he has declined to wear prison uniform or to appear clothed in court resulting in further custodial sentences for contempt.

This week he was found guilty of causing a breach of the peace following his arrest as he left Perth prison in December where he had just finished serving a 12-month sentence for the same offence. On that and a previous occasion police have been waiting to re-arrest him at the prison gates.

This all started from his attempts to walk nude across England:

Mr Gough completed his first naked ramble across Britain in 2003 during which he was arrested 15 times and spent 140 nights in jail, mainly in Scotland where the authorities hold a dimmer view of public nudity than in England and Wales. He finished his second hike with his then girlfriend Melanie Roberts three years later.

I don't know. If his problem is just that he wants to walk nude in the countryside, and his actions are all a protest about that, is it worth the effort to imprison him? If, however, he also was dropping into the corner shop nude to buy a bottle of milk, well I can see how that's a problem people shouldn't have to live with.

Sounds reasonable

From Rio to Copenhagen the model was wrong | The Australian

Geoff Carmody summaries the whole problem with the UN approach to climate change and the principles that should be adopted to start from scratch. (They point towards a carbon tax, basically.)

All sounds very reasonable to me.

Jerks and safety on public transport

Club Troppo - Vigilance against violence

Club Troppo has an interesting post about an incident of racial harassment and assault (in terms of someone fearing for their safety) on a Melbourne train.

Amongst all the discussion, I see that no one mentions the obvious point: people felt much safer from such incidents in the days when there used to be a railway "guard" on the train (who could be contacted if there was a real problem on board) and there was also the knowledge that every station would be manned and the behaviour could be immediately reported to that person.

Saving costs by removing people as far as possible from the transport system has undoubtedly made it feel less safe, yet it seems that re-populating railway stations for this reason is just never considered seriously because of the cost. But even a moderate step towards this would, I am betting, be greatly welcome by the public.

It is a feature of modern Australian cities which has gone backwards over the last 30 years.

Get that woman out of there!

Dezeen - Axial Symphony by Design Systems

I think I quite like this apartment refurbishment by a Hong Kong company, although I am curious about how hard it will be to maintain the mini mountain range on the terrace. You can't exactly run of mower over it, although I suppose a whipper snipper may do. (Kids would love it as an area to play with toy cars, soldiers or whatever.)

But what's this? There's a woman in shot in one of the interior photos. And she's slouching on the sofa! This is not allowed in architectural photography. All interiors must look unsullied by any evidence of actual humanity (including magazines, old newspapers, the mail, food, crumbs, the dog, and of course, people.) Big mistake.

Real estate bubble or not?

In China, fear of a real estate bubble - washingtonpost.com

There seems to be a fair amount of different opinion expressed in the article as to whether China has a real estate bubble that is about to burst, or whether it will hold for many years yet.

Of course, they already know about yurts, so it may be a bit redundant for me to mention again my favourite solution to all housing problems.

Lindzen criticism mounts

Lindzen & Choi's "feedback is nothing to worry about" paper from last year is facing more criticism.

Given that even Roy Spencer thinks Lindzen got this wrong, it would seem a fair bet that he did.

More money from dead bodies

Now you can be mummified just like the Egyptians - Science, News - The Independent

We haven't heard much about the plasticised skinned body exhibits lately, so it must be time to come up with some other ghoulish use of dead bodies for public entertainment. Cue England, that new bastion of inappropriate and degrading entertainment on TV:

We've had the first televised real autopsy and the first on-screen assisted suicide. The latest wheeze to challenge the British public’s attitudes to dying comes from Channel 4, which is appealing to the terminally ill to find someone to donate their body to be mummified for a reality television show – then displayed in a museum for two years.

Way to run a country

Chavez's snap devaluation sparks panic in the aisles - Americas, World - The Independent

The Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez promised to send soldiers into shops to seize businesses from owners who raise prices in the wake of the country's steep currency devaluation.

People had crowded into shops over the weekend to snap up imported televisions and electrical appliances, fearing that the devaluation of the bolivar was about to send inflation soaring.

"Right now, there is absolutely no reason for anybody to be raising prices of absolutely anything," Mr Chavez said on his weekly TV show. "I want the National Guard on the streets with the people to fight against speculation. Publicly denounce the speculator and we will intervene in any business of any size." To audience applause, the president added that the government would take over shops and give them to their workers if price rises were discovered.

Options, none of them good

Israel and Iran: The gathering storm | The Economist

Here's a very good article on the current situation and the limited options available in dealing with Iran's nuclear program.

The top hat controversy

Times Archive Blog: Why inventors weren't always hailed as heroes

The Times website has a link today to a Times Archive Blog story about inventions that caused a social stir in their day. Most strange is an account of the first top hat being worn on the street causing quite a disruption.

It is not so clear whether the story is true, but there is a link to the Times 1926 article which discusses it.

In fact, the whole Times Archive Blog looks like a very entertaining resource, and I am sad to have not discovered it before.

Doctors in trouble

Doctors gone bad stories are always interesting (or, I suppose, horrifying if you happened to have been their patient) and there are a couple of pretty spectacular cases of note lately:

* She was just trying to be helpful:

A DOCTOR has been struck off the medical register for giving a woman 22 prescriptions for mood-altering drugs, knowing she was secretly spiking her husband's coffee with the tablets for four years.

Yuk-Fun Christina Port, a GP in Deniliquin for more than 20 years, wrote prescriptions for about 3000 antidepressant and anti-psychotic tablets, including the highly toxic drug lithium carbonate used to treat bipolar disorder, without examining, diagnosing or monitoring the man.

Dr Port also changed the type of medication prescribed and increased his dose at the wife's request even though she had not seen the man for about six years, the NSW Medical Tribunal found.

Dr Port said she felt pressured to prescribe Sinequan, Aropax and Zoloft because the man's wife said he was becoming violent at home and she feared for the safety of her children.

* a former neurosurgeon seems to be finding it particularly hard to kick a habit:

A LEADING neurosurgeon charged with supplying drugs to a woman found dead in his apartment has been arrested for breaching his strict bail conditions.

Suresh Surendranath Nair, 41, was arrested shortly after midnight yesterday when Kings Cross detectives raided his apartment in Bondi.

His arrest came after surveillance police alleged the Malaysian-born surgeon separately hired three female escorts over 2½ hours, taking them back to his first-floor unit in Hall Street.

As part of his bail conditions, Dr Nair is barred from hiring any sex workers or taking illicit drugs.

The raid on the unit came a week after Dr Nair discharged himself from a private hospital where he had been undergoing treatment since being charged in relation to the death of Suellen Domingues Zaupa, 22, at his Elizabeth Bay unit on November 21 last year.

Three escorts over 2 1/2 hours? Seems kind of excessive, doesn't it?

And you thought House getting hooked on prescription painkillers was a scandal.

An innovative use for DNA science

Are the Taliban descended from ancient Israelites?

The Jerusalem Post reports:

Are the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan descendants of an Israelite tribe that migrated across Asia after it was exiled over 2,700 years ago?

This intriguing question has been asked by a variety of scholars, theologians, anthropologists and pundits over the years, but has remained somewhere between the realms of amateur speculation and serious academic research.

But now, for the first time, the government has shown official interest, with the Foreign Ministry providing a scholarship to an Indian scientist to come to the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa and determine whether or not the tribe that provides the hard core of today's Taliban has a blood link to any of the Ten Lost Tribes of Israel, and specifically to the tribe of Efraim.

Shahnaz Ali, a senior research fellow at the National Institute of Immunohaematology, Mumbai, has joined the Technion to study the blood samples that she collected from Afridi Pathans in Malihabad, in the Lucknow district, Uttar Pradesh state, India, to check their putative Israelite origin.

She's be doing genetic testing on the samples. If the theory pans out, I somehow can't imagine the Taliban being impressed. In fact, I thought the Israeli Government might be funding it just to annoy them.

But, it's possible that a historical link might be capable of good, and indeed at the end of the article, one researcher thinks this is the point:

Navras welcomed Shahnaz's research grant. "It's a great news that now my research would be analyzed scientifically," he said on his blog.

"I don't know what would be the outcome of the DNA analysis, but it would provide us a direction to resolve the complex issue. I also hope that such effort will have positive ramifications and will bring the Muslims and Jews close and enable them to forget historical animosity," Navras wrote

So it may be a case of government funded DNA research for peace. Neat.

Confirming what we knew

Boys will be boys when it comes to toys - life - 08 January 2010 - New Scientist

Seedy Sydney

I don't often find myself in agreement with Miranda Devine lately, but I reckon she's pretty right about the always slightly seedy atmosphere around the southern end of George Street.

Other big cities like New York apparently manage to push out the sex shops and general depressing sleaze from their entertainment areas, but somehow Sydney seems never to have quite managed that. (Mind you, it's been some years since I visited, but later this year I'll be there for a few days.)

Movies that jump the technological shark

I just saw the second half of the 2005 Jodie Foster movie "Flightplan". I knew the set up, and was curious to see the explanation for where the missing kid had disappeared on the plane.

I hadn't realised that the script would solve that problem by pretending that a plane somewhat resembling the new Airbus A 380 would have absolutely cavernous amounts of open space both above and below the passenger decks. It was so ridiculous, this internal design of the aircraft, that the movie just plummeted into a black hole of implausibility so overwhelming that I found it impossible to believe that any viewer could have found it engaging. Do people really think the hidden nooks and crannies on a passenger plane look something like a standing inside a Zeppelin?

Looking at the summaries of reviews at Rottentomatoes, it would seem that critic Mark Ramsey similarly found this the defining feature of the film:

It's an obscenely big plane. "Where is my daughter?!" asks Jodie. "Did you search the plane's tennis courts? The plane's new ballpark? Get me this plane's governor! NOW!

It's not often that technological ludicrousness ruins a movie for me. I mean, I'm not one of those people who likes to be overly analytical and worry about the fact that in Star Wars we can hear an explosion in space, or some such. Sometimes things are a bit silly and laughable but are sort of dramatically right, and you don't come away thinking that movie was ruined. But other times, that just doesn't work, and I can think of 2 movies in which technological silliness smacked me in the face so hard I could no longer enjoy it:

GoldenEye: no it wasn't the laser in a watch. Yes, ridiculous I know, but impossibly powerful gadgets had been in many of the Bond films for many years and I can overlook them. What I couldn't forgive was the absolutely 100% gold-plated absurd idea that a satellite weapon would have to be controlled by an antenna the size of the Arecibo Observatory, (of course, it was the Arecibo Observatory used in the film,) which also had to be hidden in a fake lake! I mean, even in 1995, satellite telephones were already in use with small laptop sized antennas, and even smaller handsets were in the pipeline. The satellite in question was not orbiting Pluto, for crying out loud; to use EMP it had to be in low earth orbit, not even geosynchronous orbit. What an inexcusably weak excuse for getting an interesting location into a movie. Didn't anyone point out this made no technological sense at all?

For some reason, it seems that every few months my mind goes back to GoldenEye and how annoyed I was at this incredibly stupid plot point. Maybe therapy is called for. Send me money someone, I will put it to good use.

Armageddon: to the best of my knowledge, this is by far the biggest collection of stupid, wrong, or improbable space science stuff ever assembled into one loud movie. Too many things wrong to possibly list. As Phil Plait wrote:

Here's the short version: "Armageddon" got some astronomy right. For example, there is an asteroid in the movie, and asteroids do indeed exist. And then there was... um... well, you know... um. Okay, so that was about all they got right.

Any reader with a different favourite example of a silly bit of technology that ruined a movie, you are welcome to share.

Planetary disaster averted

No, a nearby supernova won’t wipe us out | Bad Astronomy | Discover Magazine

The Daily Telegraph and The Sun both reported this was a relatively immanent danger to the Earth. As it wasn't picked up by more reliable sources, I suspected there might be less to the story than first appeared. Seems I was right, even if it wasn't the papers' fault

Prat blog

For those of you who just can't get enough of the only TV show host ever to urinate on his shirt and wrap it around his head, (he was feeling a touch hot at the time, and an application of warm urine apparently helps,) I've just discovered that "Bear" Grylls has his own, not frequently updated, blog.

He's significantly more annoying than Steve Irwin, who at least kept his unnecessary wildlife interventions to simply annoying them; not eating them. (That's assuming you can believe anything at all on "Man vs Wild". For all I know, every animal he eats raw may have followed him into the wilderness in an icebox.)

Worse still, it seems from his blog that he was appointed "Chief Scout" in England last year. That would put me off encouraging a child to the organisation.

Every time I see the show and the mention of him being ex-SAS, I just imagine a bunch of groans from the soldiers who used to serve with him. "That prat again...!"

Unnatural selection

Brow Beat : Beauty, American Beauty: Sam Mendes Directs James Bond

Slate has some mildly amusing fun with the announcement that Sam Mendes (!) is in talks to direct the next James Bond.

Presumably, this may at least mean that we don't get a repeat of the hypershakes and hyper-editing of Quantum of Solace. (My son saw some of it on TV recently and said, quite unprompted by his Dad, "it's too fast". Smart boy.)

However, whether it will also mean a Bondian mid-life or sexual identity crisis is another matter.

Things change slowly in the Middle East

Nearly a year ago to the day, I posted about how Egypt's blockade of Gaza attracts almost no attention from media critics of Israel. I see from this article that the blockade continues, and Egypt is working on ways to make the border even more secure.

Meanwhile, what happened to the Christmas hope that Shalit was about to be released? Oh. Still under consideration.

The magic plastic e readers

BBC News - Plastic Logic e-reader aims to challenge Kindle

The Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas is apparently packed full of new e-readers this year, and the flexible plastic screen one shown in the video at the above link does look very cool, except that its odd squarish dimensions (while great for a genuine newspaper reading experience) looks a tad too large to safely carry in your briefcase.

The Skiff reader looks like the nearest rival to Plastic Logic, but no one knows how much it will cost.

And cost is a pretty significant issue.

Very, very nerd news

Japanese Live Action Star Blazers (Space Battleship Yamato) Trailer

I didn't know they were making a live action version of Space Battleship Yamato in Japan. They've released a teaser trailer for it that you can see at the above link.

I wasn't a huge fan of the cartoon, but it was of interest.

In even worse Muslim/Christian news:

Egyptians riot after 7 killed in church attack

Three gunmen in a car sprayed automatic gunfire into a crowd leaving a church in the town of Naga Hamadi. The lead attacker is identified as a Muslim...

Police suspect that the Wednesday night attack was in retaliation to a rape of a Muslim girl by a Christian man in the same town two months ago. Muslim inhabitants of the town had rioted for days last November and attacked Christian properties there after the rape, according to local reports.

Fighting over the name of God

Malaysia Says It will Appeal 'Allah' Ruling - WSJ.com

A fight is going on in Malaysia over a Catholic Malay language newspaper's court win against a government ban on its use of the word "Allah" for God. According to the above article:

The Arab word Allah has been used by Malay-speaking Christians for centuries, much as it is used by Christians in Arabic-speaking countries or in Indonesia, where, like Malaysia, the concept of a single deity was introduced by Arabic-speaking traders. Rev. Lawrence Andrew, editor of the Herald, says there's no other appropriate term for God in Malay.

The paper had a pretty good case:

The church's Herald newspaper filed a lawsuit in 2007 challenging a government ban on it using the word Allah as a translation for God, complaining that the prohibition discriminated against Malay-speaking indigenous tribes who converted to Christianity decades ago.

The newspaper has a circulation of about 14,000 and is available only in Catholic churches, although some Muslims have complained that it is possible to look up Malay-language material using the term Allah on the Herald's Web site.

Muslim activists mobilized almost as soon as the High Court's verdict was delivered. The National Union of Malaysian Muslim Students contended that Christian missionaries using the word Allah could trick Muslims into leaving their faith, and the influential Malaysian Islamic Youth Movement said it plans a demonstration against the verdict in Kuala Lumpur on Jan. 8.

The Malay-language Utusan Malaysia newspaper reported that the influential mufti of northern Perak state, Harussani Zakaria, called the verdict "an insult to Muslims in this country."

Some Muslim groups are planning protests for tomorrow. All pretty amazing, really.

UPDATE: a bit of church burning in KL overnight.

And a bit more on the background of the use of the word "Allah" by Christianity appeared in the Jakarta Post article on the arson attack:

Many Muslims in Malysia have refused to accept the argument that "Allah" is an Arabic word that predates Islam, and that it is used by Christians in countries such as Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Indonesia regularly in their worship.

Can't they parachute in Karen Armstrong to sort this all out?

Very odd

Cellphone radiation is good for Alzheimer's mice

Regular exposure to an electromagnetic field identical to the ones produced by mobile phones seems to improve memory in mice with symptoms of Alzheimer's disease...

To the researchers' surprise, the memory of both normal and transgenic mice exposed to the electromagnetic field (EMF) seemed better by the end of the experiment than that of a control group of mice that were not irradiated.

Arendash speculates that radiation might increase the electrical activity of neurons, which could in turn improve the brain's ability to form memories. An experiment in 2000 found that if people were exposed to an EMF equivalent to mobile-phone radiation before they went to bed, their brain activity during sleep increased....

They found that the brains of transgenic mice that had been exposed to the EMF from two months old did not contain as many plaques as transgenic control mice of the same age that had not been exposed to the EMF.

What's more, in the older transgenic mice, which had already developed brain plaques before the experiment began, the EMF exposure seemed to have broken up and shrunken the plaques. Arendash say he doesn't know how the EMF could do this.

That's a very surprising finding, and as the article says, it would have to be replicated to be sure the effect is real.

Never liked Wimps

BBC News - Dark matter 'beach ball' unveiled

This article talks about the inferred shape of the presumed dark matter around the Milky Way. It seems it's not like a round ball, but a squashed one.

This is why I've never felt that WIMPS (Weakly Interacting Massive Particles) seemed like a good explanation. I mean, if they exist, why do they form squashed ball halos around galaxies in the first place? If they are weakly interacting with normal matter, why don't they exist in just a more or less random clumpiness right through the universe? I don't know that I have ever read much that addresses that issue.

As for large clumps of normal matter forming dark matter, that's always seemed kind of unlikely too, according to my gut reaction.

That's why the idea that there is something wrong with our understanding of gravity has always seemed to me to be just as likely, but MOND theories don't seem to be advancing much.

Poor Japan?

TigerHawk has an interesting post about Japan's debt problems.

The comments are worth reading too.

Not cold everywhere

BBC - Richard Black's Earth Watch: Arctic roots of 'upside-down' weather

That's interesting. According to Richard Black, while much of the Northern Hemisphere is having an unusually cold winter, some parts that are normally very cold aren't.

A very unusual talent

Frogs' secret disposal system revealed : Nature News

Plant thorns, spiny insects and even radio transmitters don't stick around for long inside tree frogs. Researchers have discovered that these amphibians can absorb foreign objects from their body cavities into their bladders and excrete them through urination.

Would be a good party trick if a human could do it.

Law, science and black holes

There's a very detailed and carefully argued article by a US Assistant Professor of Law about the LHC and safety concerns available at arXiv. (It would seem the article is to appear in the Tennessee Law Review, but I can't see if Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit fame, who is a Tennessee Law Professor, has noted it yet.)

It's very long, and I have only looked through the first half, but it seems very careful and accurate in its summary of the history of the scientific debate over its safety.

It even covers the concerns of Rainer Plaga, and agrees with my view that they never seem to have been adequately addressed.

The arXiv blog summary of the article is here. Both it and the original article are well worth a read.

UPDATE: hey, I've been Instapundit-ed! Thanks, and welcome all. There's a lot of old posts here about the LHC and black holes, but sadly you have to use the somewhat erratic search function to find them. (Why can't Google perfect search within the very blogs it owns?)

Sex in Malaysia, Part 2

Malaysian Polygamy Club Draws Criticism - NYTimes.com

Yesterday I posted about unfortunate young Malaysian couples getting a knock on their hotel room door from the Islamic "morality police" and facing charges.

Proving it's a land of contrasts, I suppose, is the above article about the increase in Islamic polygamy in the same country. One of the wives interviewed says:

“Men are by nature polygamous,” said Dr. Rohaya, Mr. Ikram’s third wife, flanked by the other three women and Mr. Ikram for an interview on a recent morning. The women were dressed in ankle-length skirts, their hair covered by tudungs, the Malaysian term for headscarf. “We hear of many men having the ‘other woman,’ affairs and prostitution because for men, one woman is not enough. Polygamy is a way to overcome social ills such as this.”

Well, only for those rich enough to provide support for the additional wives, one suspects.

However, it is interesting to note that further down in the article, one critic of the system points out that:

...she knew some well-educated, financially independent women in Kuala Lumpur, including business executives and lawyers, who had chosen to become second or third wives.

“Usually they marry late, they do a second or third degree, they put off marriage until later and they find it difficult to find an unmarried man,” she said. “One of them said ‘all the good men are either married or gay.”’

The women of Sydney who have the same complaint could have their predicament cured by some radical changes in the Marriage Act, then.

And if polygamy were allowed here, but only by men taking on wives richer than themselves, maybe even I could be persuaded of its benefits. :)

Nerd grief

The fall-out from Doctor Who

Caitlin Moran's description of her and her daughter's shared devastation at David Tennant's departure from Dr Who is pretty funny:

Dora and I did a good fifteen minutes of mother/daughter nerd-mourning together - crying whilst flicking through Doctor Who Magazine and saying "Oh that's a good Ood still". Then Dora progressed into the "anger" stage of bereavement: at one point shouting, "Tom Baker managed seven years - WHY COULDN'T DAVID?"

I didn't know she even knew who Tom Baker was. At that point I realised that whilst I was walking wounded, she was metaphorically doing a geek haemmorhage. As Dora lay on the floor, moaning, "WHY did he have to GO?", Pete had a moment of genius, and downloaded a Doctor Who audiobook, read out by Tennant. Comforted by the prospect of there being at least one more David Tennant adventure to be had, Dora finally fell asleep listening to it - AT SODDING 11.30PM

Big explosion noted

Runaway anti-matter production makes for a spectacular stellar explosion

University of Notre Dame astronomer Peter Garnavich and a team of collaborators have discovered a distant star that exploded when its center became so hot that matter and anti-matter particle pairs were created. The star, dubbed Y-155, began its life around 200 times the mass of our Sun but probably became "pair-unstable" and triggered a runaway thermonuclear reaction that made it visible nearly halfway across the universe....

Garnavich and his collaborators calculated that, at its peak, Y-155 was generating energy at a rate 100 billion times greater than the sun's output. To do this, Y-155 must have synthesized between 6 and 8 solar masses of radioactive nickel. It is the decay of radioactive elements that drives the light curves of supernovae. A normal "Type Ia" thermonuclear supernova makes about one tenth as much radioactive nickel.

"In our images, Y-155 appeared a million times fainter than the unaided human eye can detect, but that is because of its enormous distance," Garnavich said. "If Y-155 had exploded in the Milky Way it would have knocked our socks off."

Over 40 years ago scientists proposed that massive stars could become unstable through the production of matter/anti-matter particle pairs, but only recently have large-scale searches of the sky, like the ESSENCE project, permitted the discovery of these bright, but rare, events.

Maybe we just live in a lucky corner of the universe.

Playtime for lawyers

BBC News - France mulls 'psychological violence' ban

I didn't realise the French could be quite so silly.

Cool photo

The_view_from_Burj_Dubai_by_shebanx.jpg

Found this via comments to a Guardian piece on the new skyscraper in Dubai.

New Year in Malaysia

52 unmarried Malaysian Muslim couples face jail for hotel liaisons

Scores of officers fanned out across budget hotels in central Selangor state before dawn on Jan 1, knocking on doors and detaining unmarried Muslim couples who were sharing rooms, said Hidayat Abdul Rani, a spokesman for the Selangor Islamic Department.

The detained, mostly students and young factory workers, are expected to be charged with “khalwat,” or “close proximity,” which under Malaysia’s Islamic Shariah law is described as couples not married to each other being alone together in a private place.

“We chose to have this large-scale operation on New Year’s Day because many people are known to commit this offense while celebrating such a major holiday,” Hidayat said.

In Selangor, “khalwat” carries a maximum penalty of two years in prison and a fine.

Movies and kids

Sci-fi epic doesn't kid around: critics - Film - Entertainment - smh.com.au

My 9 year old son is very keen to see Avatar, but I finally checked the rating and found it was M. After speaking to a person who has seen it, I've decided not to take him.

This article quotes someone who believes that:

"...Avatar was not suitable for children under eight ''due to scary and disturbing scenes and violence'', and was ''not recommended'' for children eight to 12.

''Some of the research indicates that parents don't always know when their kids are handling a movie well,'' said Ms Biggins yesterday. ''There are longer-term impacts on kids that don't always show up at the time.

It certainly seems to me that some parents are ridiculously careless about what movies they take their kids to, and I particularly recall my surprise at the number of young boys that were in the cinema when I saw Terminator 2 back in the 1990's. I quite disliked the film anyway, and I suppose you could argue that most of the violence is robot on robot. But killing a guy with a metal spike through the eye, various other breakings of human bones, the general bleak, dark tone of the whole film, and a real lack of any particularly sympathetic characters to my mind made it one of the most obviously unsuitable films for under 10 year olds that I could imagine.

Basically, most parents seem to pay no attention to the classification a film receives.

Yurt on ice

Broadband, Yes. Toilet, No. - NYTimes.com

I haven't mentioned yurts for a while, but I see that the NY Times has an article with a good slideshow about a young family in Alaska who chose to live in one.

It apparently cost about $14,000, looks pretty nice to me, but does have the disadvantage of having an outside toilet and no running water for a shower or the dishes. (They walk to town to do the laundry and wash themselves.) Given that they live in a place that can get 17 feet of snow in a season, even I would draw the line at living with an outside loo in a place like that.

Decline of Great Britain, cont.

Forget Shameless: X-Factor holds up a truer mirror to the working class | Television & radio | The Observer

This article is mainly about the (to me) surprisingly successful British drama/comedy Shameless. I simply don't "get" the show, yet apparently semi-tragic "comedic" stories of the hopeless unemployed/working class characters of modern day Britain are appreciated by many people. To criticise such a show as being largely amoral and/or condescending is to invite the response that you are merely middle class twit, apparently:

The actor has pointed out that Shameless appeals to all sectors of the audience. "I've had people from right across the social spectrum tell me they get it," he said. "Sometimes reporters ask, 'Don't you think you're being a bit patronising about working- class people?' To which I say, 'Bollocks, you middle-class journalist!' If it was condescending, I'd know, because the people on the estates where we film would come and tell me."

But apparently some in Manchester have (finally) started to turn against it:

Bloggers on the Manchester Evening News website are not impressed. "In the beginning, it was edgy and fun. Now it is just tripe, it makes the people of Manchester and Salford look like low-life idiots," complains one..

Only now they are starting to realise that?

Annual mochi death toll post gets harder

Yes, I'm sure someone out there has been waiting for the annual "New Year's Japanese death toll from eating mochi" post. (If you Google "mochi deaths", my 2009 blog post on the topic comes up as No.1. I'm not entirely sure if that's a good thing.)

Well, this year the task is proving much harder than normal, because for some reason it seems that no Japanese news source that publishes on the Web in English has carried the news.

Will this stop your blogger? No. I've had to track down the stories in Japanese, and then use Babel Fish to give the contorted translation. Here we go, from Yoimuri Online via Babel Fish:

The rice cake clogging 2 human death 1 person it is heavy the body

The accident where the senior citizens can plug having in the throat one after another, with investigation of the Yomiuri Shimbun Company, in 4 days December 31st - January 3rd, 10 people was carried by the hospital at least inside the prefecture, the inside 2 people died, 1 people became heavily the body of unconscious.

　According to the National Fire Prevention and Control Administra and the like of every place, 1st around 11 o'clock in the morning, the man of Ichihara city (68) to be carried by the hospital of the same city, prompt the death. 2nd, the man of Funabashi city (61) was carried by the hospital of the same city even around 11 o'clock in the afternoon, died promptly.

　In addition, was carried to the hospital 8 man and woman total of 70 - 87 years old in such as Chiba city and Asahi city.

And I think this might only be the problems mochi has caused in just one prefecture. (There's a report of a 60 year old man dying in Asaka.)

So who knows what the national death toll is? But in any event, the dangers of eating mochi on New Years certainly continue. (And, as with last year, terribly sorry to be sounding as if making light of unfortunate deaths.)

Update: for figures for the New Year 2010/2011, see my latest post here.

An enjoyable review

The legacy of Grace Kelly : The New Yorker

It's by Anthony Lane, so it's good.

The dangers and benefits of pretending

I thought the story in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday about the psychological dangers of actors playing dark roles was pretty interesting. I hadn't heard the story before that Daniel Day-Lewis quit Hamlet after seeing his own dead father on stage, or that Robert Downey Jnr partly blamed playing a cocaine addict in a movie for his own real life addiction.

As the article says, part of the problem is that Western training for actors has come to be dominated by method acting, by which actors are encouraged to internalise and experience the fictional character.

It is, in many ways, a little curious that this has become the dominant idea for actor training. After all, it only came to be popular in the mid 20th century, and at least two of the worlds most lauded actors, Olivier and Guinness, were not into it. Olivier is famously said to have told Dustin Hoffman to "just try acting", or similar words, although the veracity and meaning of that anecdote seems somewhat uncertain now. I am pretty sure it is fair to say that, although he could be extremely thoughtful about what he was doing, Alec Guinness also took a "craftsman" approach to acting which would disdain the need to internalise the role being performed. (I think he also used to say that his approach to acting over the years increasingly came to be one of whittling down the effects to a bare minimum, but maybe that was particularly encouraged by some of the characters he was later to play.) Harrison Ford, who is not the world's greatest actor but has been quite convincing in some serious roles, has also frequently made the comparison to it being a trade something like the carpentry that he did between jobs in his early days.

So if everyone knows that method acting is not essential, why do so many drama teachers still think it so important? I assume that it's because it gives a certain gravitas to the profession that is, after all, a very curious one that is very similar to child's play conducted in public. (Colin Firth, who I don't particularly find interesting as a actor, at least recognizes the semi-absurdity of the job.)

Talking about this reminds me that (I think) CS Lewis said somewhere that if you pretend something long enough, you start to believe it. I can't track down the quote now, but I remember it struck me as important at the time I first read it.

As a an aspect of the human psyche, it is something that can be used in both a positive or negative way. It is related to the idea that a lie repeated enough will start to be believed, but on the other hand, as Lewis said elsewhere: "Do not waste time bothering whether you "love" your neighbour; act as if you did."

Certainly, atheists can use it to attack religious faith as being no more than a matter of thoughtless indoctrination. (A point Lewis would surely have recognized, but you have to also concede that he did his fair share to get people to really think about their faith.)

But from the other side of the fence, it is a principle that can be used to justify a critical attitude of the (barely recognized by younger people especially) Freudian psychology which dominates Western thinking in many ways. Why, after all, should we be so concerned with understanding our subconscious landscape, and giving fulfillment to it, if it is something that can be "tricked" into believing stuff quite easily anyway?

The important point that CS Lewis, and the (now Catholic) philosopher Alisdair McIntyre might make is that Aristotle was right in his assumption "that man is as-he-happens-to-be and that this is distinct from man-as-he-should-be," and that "pretending" to the extent that it helps a person become the person they should be is a worthy thing. I really must get around to reading McIntyre one day.

If method acting made people think about this, it would serve something useful.

A New Year link miscellany

I've been off to the seaside for much of the last week, and there's a post about that on its way. But to get me back into blogging mode, here's a bunch of stuff that has caught my attention since I got back on the computer:

* The Australian ran an interesting article on one of the oddest UFO cases of the 20th century: the Australian missionary William Gill's detailed report of a sighting in New Guinea in 1959.

The case has received much attention over the years because of it strange combination of improbable details (humanoid figures seen on a platform floating above the mission by a whole group of witnesses) and the apparent believability of the missionary reporting it.

It was a sighting that lasted a long time, which is always immediate reason to believe it is Venus or a similarly bright astronomical object. But how do you mistake a planet as a platform containing a bunch of waving humanoids? Some skeptics have suggested that it was simply Gill's poor eyesight, but if so it's one of the strangest cases of mistaken identity from squinting at a point of light It also would appear that Gill never admitted that it was a hoax. It remains a very odd case.

* Slate magazine remembers Omni magazine with fondness. I'm glad I'm not on my own. At its height, it was a great read that I looked forward to every month, and I think I've still got some editions somewhere in the garage, if the silverfish haven't got to them.

* The Australian continues its bipolar approach to Tony Abbott, whose ascendancy seemed to be greeted with a lot of "Abbott brings the fight up to Rudd" guff, but the paper still has to concede that current polling indicates that regional areas still aren't going Coalition, and by all looks an early election will place Labor in a much better position than it is now. It will be an interesting year in politics.

* From Japan we learn that about university research that indicates that lightning (or just electric shocks) makes for a bigger shiitake mushroom crop. How on earth did the Iwate University come up with that research idea? Must be a distinct lack of things for the electrical engineers to do, is all I can say. (I think I've even walked through their campus too.)

* More depressingly (if you like Japan) it would appear the population dropped again in 2009.

* In the trivia department, I learned from the New Scientist Christmas edition that the Romans used to stew grapes in lead pots "leeching the sweet tasting metal into their food". I knew they used lead for cooking; I didn't know it was sweet tasting. It's rather unfortunate when a toxic metal tastes good.

* Scientific American had a short article on one of the big stirling engine solar power companies. (My early favourite, Infinia, seems to be much slower at getting into big production.)