Bad news Friday, Part 2

Energy production causes big US earthquakes : Nature News 

Natural-gas extraction, geothermal-energy production and other activities that inject fluid underground have caused numerous earthquakes in the United States, scientists report today in a trio of papers in Science^1–3.

Most of these quakes have been small, but some have exceeded magnitude 5.0. They include a magnitude-5.6 event that hit Oklahoma on 6 November 2011, damaging 14 homes and injuring two people, says William Ellsworth, a seismologist at the US Geological Survey in Menlo Park, California, and the author of one of the papers¹.

He says that the annual number of earthquakes record at magnitude 3.0 or higher in the central and eastern United States has increased almost tenfold in the past decade — from an average of 21 per year between 1967 and 2000 to a maximum of 188 in 2011. A second study², led by Nicholas van der Elst, a seismologist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, finds that at least half of the magnitude-4.5 or larger earthquakes that have struck the interior United States in the past decade have occurred near injection-well sites.

Bad news Friday

A blog at the Guardian notes that there is a new James Hansen led paper out soon that argues that burning all our fossil fuels could effectively ruin the planet for humans (too hot to grow food grains, for example).  The concern is about poorly understood feedbacks that may lead to a mini runaway increase in temperatures.

That's a worry, of course, but I was more interested to read a summary of other recent papers arguing that there are grounds to question whether a 2 degree increase in global temperatures is really a "safe" level.   I've always thought that there was probably a lot of guesswork in that nominal figure, and it is important if it is too "conservative", especially as there has been much publicity lately that the sensitivity to doubling CO2 is closer to 2 degrees than to 3 or 4.   If the sense of complacency that some are encouraging as a result of that is ill founded, we should know. 

Anyway, here's the summary:

The new paper by James Hansen is just the latest confirming that we are on the verge of crossing a tipping point into catastrophic climate change. Other recent scientific studies show that the current global emissions trajectory could within three years guarantee a 2C rise in global temperatures, in turn triggering irreversible and dangerous amplifying feedbacks.

According to a scientific paper given at the Geological Society of London last month, climate records from Siberian caves show that temperatures of just 1.5C generate "a tipping point for continuous permafrost to start thawing", according to lead author Prof Anton Vaks from Oxford University's Department of Earth Sciences. Conventional climate models suggest that 1.5C is just 10-30 years away.

Permafrost thawing releases sub-ice undersea methane into the atmosphere - a greenhouse gas twenty times more potent that carbon dioxide. In June, NASA's new five-year programme to study the Arctic carbon cycle, Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), declared:

"If just one percent of the permafrost carbon released over a short time period is methane, it will have the same greenhouse impact as the 99 percent that is released as carbon dioxide."

Another paper suggests that conventional climate modelling is too conservative due to not accounting for complex risks and feedbacks within and between ecosystems. The paper published in Nature last Wednesday finds that models used to justify the 2C target as a 'safe' limit focus only on temperature rise and fail to account for impacts on the wider climate system such as sea level rise, ocean acidification, and loss of carbon from soils. It concludes that the 2C target is insufficient to avoid dangerous climate change.

Abbott's anxiety rise continues...

I've just been watching Kevin Rudd's Press Club address on the economy.

He sounds confident, across a lot of details, consultative and smart.   Less "Ruddisms" in expression too.

There is no doubt he has been improved greatly by being dumped.

He makes, more than ever, Tony Abbott sound like a mere shallow sloganeer.  

(And I'll make another call out across the interwebs:  cry Catallaxians, cry...)

More "you don't say...."

Combination of smoking and heavy drinking 'speeds up cognitive decline'

Mind you, seems to me the effect is not exactly all that pronounced:

The research team found that in current smokers who were also heavy drinkers, cognitive decline was 36% faster than in non-smoking moderate drinkers. This was equivalent to an age effect of 12 years – an additional two years over the 10-year follow up period. 

Is it that easy to tell the difference between, say, a 67 year old brain and a 65 year old one?

 

You don't say....

Men and Women Often Expect Different Things When They Move In Together - W. Bradford Wilcox - The Atlantic

A study confirms what common sense and observation should have already made clear:

 According to a new paper from RAND by sociologists Michael Pollard and Kathleen Mullan Harris, cohabiting young adults have significantly lower levels of commitment than their married peers. This aversion to commitment is particularly prevalent among young men who live with their partners.

I wonder how many fathers point this out to their daughters?   I mean, they understand the likely psychology of men better than the mother.   

Brisbane colonial history noted

I was in the State Library bookshop last Sunday, killing a bit of time before heading off to see War Horse, and briefly noted a book (a novel, I think) which revolved around the Brisbane Bread Riot of 1866.

That's an event I didn't recall having heard about before, so I Googled it up.

I can't seem to link to it directly, but the first on the list should be the link to a good article by Paul Wilson explaining what it was about (basically, not enough work or food for immigrants arriving on boats expecting same, and the government being blamed for poor organisation.)

It has a couple of good, old photos of Brisbane in the period too.

Cities sure changed a lot in the century ranging from 1866 to 1966, didn't they?

Probably not a good idea to eat asparagus before using

Device can sniff out bladder cancer | News.com.au

Fighter pilot redundancy coming soon

US Navy drone lands on aircraft carrier deck in robotic flight breakthrough - ABC News

Something to look forward to?

The Joy of Old Age. (No Kidding.) - NYTimes.com

Oliver Sacks writes a short essay on how he is not at all depressed about reaching 80.  

We would all hope we can feel the same way.

This seems very unfair...

Study confirms link between omega-3 fatty acids and increased prostate cancer risk

Published July 11 in the online edition of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, the latest findings indicate that high concentrations of EPA, DPA and DHA – the three anti-inflammatory and metabolically related fatty acids derived from fatty fish and fish-oil supplements – are associated with a 71 percent increased risk of high-grade prostate cancer. The study also found a 44 percent increase in the risk of low-grade prostate cancer and an overall 43 percent increase in risk for all prostate cancers.....

  "We've shown once again that use of nutritional supplements may be harmful," said Alan Kristal, Dr.P.H., the paper's senior author and member of the Fred Hutch Public Health Sciences Division. Kristal also noted a recent analysis published in the Journal of the American Medical Association that questioned the benefit of omega-3 supplementation for cardiovascular diseases. The analysis, which combined the data from 20 studies, found no reduction in all-cause mortality, heart attacks or strokes.

Tony has an idea

Kevin Rudd, tweets this morning:

Tony Abbott, at 10 am staff meeting:

Go Lenore

Some direct questions on the Coalition's Direct Action plan | World news | guardian.co.uk

Some quality journalism in The Guardian on the Coalition's CO2 reduction policy, which I have yet to see endorsed as making sense by any economist in the land.

Panic on the Right

That 7.30 interview Tony Abbott gave the other night (which I still haven't watched) must have been crook - there's a full blown panic attack underway at the Tea Party lite blog Catallaxy.   My favourite comment amongst a tough field is perhaps the one showing the true Tea Party alignment:

My family have suffered so much during these Labor years. We have lost so much that we had built over our life-times it almost brings me to tears.
My children have literally been impoverished as these corrupt bastards have enriched themselves to the detriment of the Country.
I tell you, were there a groundswell, I would seriously consider taking up arms against them, I detest them with such an enraged passion.
And this coming from a gentle man, an artist, a believer in God Almighty, but also a former infantryman.
How long must we bear this terrible burden?

Of course, given that the blog is now headed by a painting featuring lots of naked Spartans (libertarian types have a fetish for that "300" story) it has become even more incongruous that one of the regulars will use a homophobic slap in the face to everyone else:

And this quavering and quivering over Abbott’s ability is strangely familiar. Deja vu, in fact.
Harden up, fags.

And how does this self regulating place deal with this counsel?   Lizzie, a woman who likes talking about her love life so much I feel sure that at her funeral someone will have to tell her to shut up about it, deals with it via a verbal group hug and a big "thanks, Abu, for using an old fashioned homophobic insult":

It was so wonderful to read your thoughts this morning. Others have been touched by them too. I have been coming here since 2010 (at least) and it has always felt like a second home, a place of refuge, to someone who spent a fair bit of her early youth essentially homeless and has only recently begun to feel secure in herself. I have always been accepted here on my own terms – no easy task – but that is the way it has been and I am grateful for it. It is a fine place and I will not give up on it, nor on the powerful individual and life-affirming things it stands for. Thank you.

And thank you, too, Abu, for slapping us hard.  

 Hilarious.

Update:  Cry, Catallaxians, cry!  The Wall Street Journal, the only paper you trust internationally because it runs (almost) as many AGW denying articles as The Australian,  notes the Rudd momentum, so it must be true.

Also - they (Catallaxians) are already contemplating whether Turnbull might be a better counter to Rudd after all.   Most of them are appalled at the suggestion.  He believes in climate change, after all...

Future krill kill?

Risk maps for Antarctic krill under projected Southern Ocean acidification : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Hey, this blog must one of the few in the world that is always interested in krill stories.   If you search at the sidebar, you'll find at least six posts in the past.

And today, another article in Nature Climate Change (above) with concerns that ocean acidification will eventually kill them off in Antarctica, with dire consequences for the whole food chain.  I'll cut and paste the whole summary, because it has interesting bits about the entire krill life cycle (who knew their eggs hatched so deep?):

Marine ecosystems of the Southern Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification¹. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) is the key pelagic species of the region and its largest fishery resource². There is therefore concern about the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification and an expanding fishery on krill and ultimately, their dependent predators—whales, seals and penguins^{3, 4}. However, little is known about the sensitivity of krill to ocean acidification. Juvenile and adult krill are already exposed to variable seawater carbonate chemistry because they occupy a range of habitats and migrate both vertically and horizontally on a daily and seasonal basis⁵. Moreover, krill eggs sink from the surface to hatch at 700–1,000 m (ref. 6), where the carbon dioxide partial pressure (p_CO2) in sea water is already greater than it is in the atmosphere⁷. Krill eggs sink passively and so cannot avoid these conditions. Here we describe the sensitivity of krill egg hatch rates to increased CO₂, and present a circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success under projected p_CO2 levels. We find that important krill habitats of the Weddell Sea and the Haakon VII Sea to the east are likely to become high-risk areas for krill recruitment within a century. Furthermore, unless CO₂ emissions are mitigated, the Southern Ocean krill population could collapse by 2300 with dire consequences for the entire ecosystem.

Tony reflects

A minor incident, perhaps, but the photo was screaming out for enhancement.

People watching in central Greenland

My blog seems yet to have ever had a hit from Greenland, and I also spend much of this time of year looking at the Arctic sea ice melting around it.

So I was just now inspired to look for webcams from there, and found this one for Summit Station, a research station on the top of the central ice cap.  It looks very lonely there:

It also does indeed seem to be live and updating every few minutes. I spotted someone on the ice a few minutes ago, and he (or she) is not there now.  Oh - I just saw two people walking past.

I see that is summer and still - 12 degrees C.  Winter must be brisk!

Update:  the website I got the webcam from has a "users guide" for any researcher staying there.  Amongst other interesting things to learn are:

*  the cook has Sundays off, so everyone has to cook for themselves that day, or eat leftovers;
*  it has internet and phone service, but bandwidth is limited. (It seems their phone numbers are listed here, if anyone wants to Skype them.  I wonder if this is about the remotest place in the world one can ring and annoy with telemarketing?);
*  anyone abusing drugs or alcohol are on the next flight out;
* it's at an elevation of 10,500 feet:  altitude sickness can be a real problem for some.

By the way, it's now 2.30 am and the sun is out:

A good question

Are testicles external for cooling, galloping, display, or something else? - Slate Magazine

So there you go:  the reason most people believe - that it's for cooling - is actually much disputed from an evolutionary point of view, and has been for some time.

It's actually a well written,  fascinating story.

Anxiety rising in Abbott's office

I haven't seen it yet, but I take it that Tony Abbott got an aggressive interview with Chris Uhlmann last night.  I should watch it later today to see what I make of both of their performances.

Meantime, didn't I say last week that "new, improved Rudd", who I still say has taken lessons in apology from Peter Beattie, would be causing anxiety in Abbott's office?   With Newspoll showing it now 50/50, there is no doubt at all that I was right.

And all I can do from afar is laugh at people who comment and post at Catallaxy, who are stressing out about the Labor resurgence.  I share their puzzlement over Rudd's personal popularity (although, as I say, he is clearly performing cleverly at the moment and has learnt at least some political lessons over the last 3 years), but it's highly amusing when people from a site whose main unifying theme is "climate change is crap" start calling the Australian public idiots. 

Technological optimism

Once a Joke, Battery-Powered Airplanes Are Nearing Reality | MIT Technology Review

Electric hybrid planes, even of substantial size, may be in our future:

Several major corporations envision a future in which airplanes rely at least in part on electric propulsion. Although the technology will be applied to small planes at first, eventually it could help reduce noise and emissions from airliners.

“Within this decade, we will certainly see hybrid electric aircraft entering the market,” says Frank Anton, who heads the hybrid aircraft efforts at Siemens. Four-seat hybrid aircraft are likely within that time frame, he says, but even 19 seaters are possible before the decade is out. Anton predicts that eventually we will see 100-passenger hybrid aircraft that use half as much fuel as today’s airplanes.

Boeing is taking this a step further with a concept for hybrid airplanes the size of 737s, which can seat more than 150 passengers, although it’s unlikely these will come into service before 2030. EADS, the parent company of Airbus, has also developed a conceptual design for passenger airplanes that fly exclusively on electricity, although the range of these aircraft would be limited.

Cool.

Slippery Tony

Abbott repaid cost of 2009 book trips

So, Tony repaid monies for what was a private, book promoting trip back in 2009.

One gets the impression that such repayments are not all that uncommon amongst politicians, but it's still amusing to read:

Freedom of Information documents show Mr Abbott repaid the expenses in 2010, despite initially describing the allegations through a spokesman as ''a blatant attempt by Labor to smear and mislead''.

Mr Abbott made the trips in July and August 2009 - before he became Opposition Leader in November 2009 - to promote his book....

According to the documents released, Mr Abbott's chief of staff, Peta Credlin, wrote in October 2010 that the flights ''were inadvertently booked as official travel, rather than private''. ''I enclose a full repayment of all outstand- ing costs … amount $6255.49.''
In January 2011, Mr Gray wrote to Mr Abbott's office noting $3141.93 m

As it happens, I've been arguing at Club Troppo that while I agree that there is an element of dishonesty "baked into" politics, a Leader has less scope to get away with it than any other MP, and if they have a history of particular dishonesty, it's not unreasonable for this to reflect poorly on their suitability as leader.

There are pretty classic examples of spontaneous dishonesty in Abbott's past:  denying meeting George Pell, a Medicare promise made in circumstances it seems he knew it couldn't be kept, denial of the real circumstances of his involvement in funding of the Hanson case, and now this (which, I suppose, we cannot directly pin on him, but it's a bad look, especially in light of the Coalition licking its lips over former Abbott mate Peter Slipper facing charges over travel rorts.)

I'll keep saying it:  Abbott's not suited to the leadership.

Unusual art

The photo does not really do it justice, but I was a bit surprised to find this bit of sculpture (I suppose you call it) inside the Queensland Art Gallery today:

I am always impressed with the arts precinct at South Brisbane; every visitor to the city should allow a full day there.

Caramel and cancer

Drinking Cola will not give you Cancer

Ian Musgrave looks like he might easily have a second career in Tolkien movies, but he writes really well about issues to do with toxic chemicals and food and the misleading way studies about same are often reported.

In the link above, he talks about caramel in cola drinks, and gives me reassurance that my modest consumption of diet cola is not likely to kill me, at least from that substance.

He also wrote interestingly about coffee recently, and I had probably read before but forgotten this:

....in fact studies consistently show that coffee consumption actually reduces your risk of diabetes (see here, here and here for systematic reviews). In at least one study, the risk was reduced by around 35%, which is quite good.

 Yes, it is.  But only if it works with freeze dried coffee, too...

Horsing around

It seemed time for my once a decade or so trip to the theatre, and what more popular show could I pick than War Horse?

I liked the Spielberg movie a lot, as did my son, and so I also took him to the stage play (the first real professional show he has seen.)

This might have been a bit of a mistake.  The normal progress is to see a stage show and then the film, and the added realism of the latter does not jar in any sense.  But I think, especially for a younger person, seeing the film first adds to the awareness of the "staginess" of a stage production.  He still liked it, more or less, but did comment that the some of the actors seemed to be being too dramatic.  I said that it's something you have to get used to in live theatre - it doesn't allow for whispers and the same subtlety of acting as does the audio and close ups of cinema.

But as for my reaction:  I assume it has been said before, but I kept thinking while watching it "this is like a masterclass of the very best in stagecraft and what can be achieved in theatre."  The lighting design, the sets which work with suggestion more than materials, the back projection, the music, the use of songs as linking device, and, of course, the puppetry.   I mean, it is kind of ridiculous triumph of theatre that the reunion of a man and his (artificial) horse makes a substantial  number in the audience cry.

I saw part of a documentary of how the show was made in Britain a few months ago - it took an extraordinarily long time, with a huge number of people involved.   They really deserve their success.

I was going to end this by noting that I would not go so far as to say that it has cured me of a preference for the additional realism of cinema; but really, they both deserve admiration whenever they work and win over an audience.

Saturday night fish recipes

A few weeks ago, I tried this salmon recipe from the Coles website: ginger and soy glazed salmon with buk choy.  The glaze and the salmon worked a treat, but the coconut rice (which I had never tried cooking before) burnt thoroughly on the bottom of the saucepan despite my attempt to use as low a gas flame as I could, and was unusable.   Maybe a heavier based pan next time?  I didn't realise coconut rice could be tricky.

Tonight, it was an old favourite, from an old recipe book I've had for maybe 20 years - The Macquarie Dictionary of Cookery.

This book, which I see was reprinted in 1991, is truly remarkable for the terrible quality of the illustrations.  There are no photos at all, just the occasional bad black and white line drawing.  For example, the entry on Spanish cooking  is illustrated thus:

Yet, despite the terrible look of the internal pages, it has proved to be a pretty reliable resource for your basic household recipes.  If you want a straight forward recipe for scones, stews, or (as in tonight's case) trout with almonds, it's very reliable, even if you have no idea at all what the final result should look like.

I've made the trout with almond recipe before and always liked it.  Strangely, given her general love of all seafood, my wife eats trout but without great enthusiasm.  I've always liked it, and I just can't work out why she downplays its qualities.  So I get to cook it only once a year or so.

Tonight, the kids ate this too and had no complaints.  Farmed trout is always available and (I see with pleasure) a reliably cheap-ish fish too. (About $16 a kilo today for filleted trout at Coles, and one big fillet each is plenty for this dish with lots of butter.  I cringe at buying fillet fish which is more than $30 a kilo, as many are these days.)

Anyhow, for each of my future reference, in case my crappy Macquarie cook book ever falls apart, here it is:

I don't worry about whether it's fresh parsley or not I use with the almond sauce; tonight I used oregano (which grows permanently and reliably in our garden, unlike parsley) in its place, although I also had a bit of thyme and its flavour works well in a butter sauce I think. As I indicated earlier, I just buy rainbow trout fillets if I can, and don't worry about extracting the bones.  They are so fine they are not going to chock anyone, and even my kids didn't bother pulling them out as they ate.

Maybe I can work up to having it once every 6 months, or 4, if I am lucky!

Revolution revised

New Revolutionary War books by Nathaniel Philbrick and Joseph Ellis ignore modern historical research. - Slate Magazine

Not that I know much about it to start with, but this Slate article, complaining that new popular histories of the American War of Independence leave out some of the more interesting recent academic takes on the matter, is interesting.    For example:

In his new academic press book, The Men Who Lost America, Andrew O’Shaughnessy shows that the British mismanaged the war not because they were unabashed tyrants but precisely the opposite: They were struggling to manage the most democratic government the world had ever seen. Britain’s popularly elected parliament never had more power than in the 1770s. But partisan politics paralyzed the government. Legislators were divided over how to respond to the American protests, and a free press only fanned the factional flames. King George III, an avid supporter of the Enlightenment, advocated a powerful display of force abroad in part to assert control over his nascent democracy at home.

 And:

Take what happened in Virginia, where the war was ultimately won. Wealthy planters were happy to champion liberty so long as their lives weren’t put on the line, as an article in a forthcoming collection of scholarly articles shows. They paid poorer men to fight for them, and when they tried to institute a draft, less affluent Virginians rebelled, knowing they’d be forced to carry the burden. The rioters demanded a volunteer militia, and at a high price: They wanted land as payment, and, just as importantly, slaves to cultivate that land with. Virginia’s elites grudgingly conceded, confiscating slaves from abandoned loyalist plantations, and handing out Native American lands that the British had given up after the war ended. Even still, when the patriots won at Yorktown, Va., in 1781, the battle that ended the war, Virginia’s militia made up just 20 percent of the patriots’ 15,000 troops. The Continental Army, most of them northerners, provided about one-third, and more than one-half were French.

These new pop histories of the Revolution are oblivious to the war’s global dimensions, as well as the quotidian reality of ordinary colonists, despite their claims to the contrary. They naively indulge the Revolution’s idealistic rhetoric, even if they dutifully note how those words failed to be put into practice. It makes sense; after all, there’s nothing’s less romantic than the complicated, disheartening truths of war-torn societies. The irony is that these new histories all try, rightly, to make the Revolution seem relevant again. Yet paying more attention to the new scholarship would show how much more similar the Revolution was to our own wars now.

Perhaps there’s a lesson we could learn from the Revolution’s losers, the British, for instance. They took on what looked like an easy war abroad to patch over partisan divisions at home, yet nonetheless lost the war because of imperial overreach. Or perhaps we could learn something from the vast majority of ambivalent colonists, the ones unsure whether the war was even worth it. The Revolution scared them, or held false promises. Their experience provides a sobering lesson about the hubris of war, but one we can still thank them for today.

A strange musical story

From the Spectator, a very strange story of how a Schumann concerto came to be re-found and played:

Robert Schumann met a wretched end. He died in a lunatic asylum where he thought the nurses were feeding him human faeces. Meanwhile he drove his fellow residents mad by sitting at the piano and bashing out nonsense-music until he had to be dragged away — a grotesque indignity for the creator of the most bewitching quicksilver fantasies in the history of the instrument.

After Schumann’s death in 1856, the violinist Joseph Joachim hid away the strange concerto that the composer had written for him in 1853 because it showed evidence of softening of the brain. Clara, Robert’s widow, agreed. That became the conventional wisdom. The violin concerto was suppressed until 1933 when — appropriately for such spectral music — the disembodied voice of Schumann contacted two of Joachim’s nieces during a séance and demanded its recovery. The work was fished out of the Prussian state library and championed by the Nazis, who saw it as an alternative to the devilishly hummable violin concerto by the Jew Mendelssohn.

Go away, Chris

Labor is sinking and the captains are to blame - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I've never thought much of Chris Uhlmann:  I don't think he does great interviews, and is not overly intelligent or personable as a TV host.  Despite having a Labor politician wife, and presumably having considerable contact with many on the inside of the party, I don't think he's ever particularly enlightening, and he is inclined to catastrophic forecast for how Labor is fairing.

Today's column is one of the worst examples of this.

Why won't his wife punish him for me?  Please?

More self amusement...

Fact checking Peter Anderson

So, the Australian today has an opinion piece by Peter Anderson, from the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, complaining that the Gillard minority government didn't do much for business, was too union friendly, and increased costs and regulation, and business wants Rudd to go to an election now.   All very much in line with Rupert Murdoch's twitter-casted position (which I am presuming will end up in an Australian editorial soon, if it hasn't already):

Australian public now totally disgusted with Labor Party wrecking country with it's sordid intrigues. Now for a quick election.

But Googling around for other things Peter Anderson has said in the past, I see he was not happy with the carbon price policy of Julia Gillard, and was happy to promote this prediction in 2011:

DAVID TAYLOR: The chief lobby group for Australian business is most concerned about the potential hit to company bottom lines as a result of the tax.

PETER ANDERSON: Well the research that has been independently prepared, which we released yesterday, shows that small and medium businesses that are trade exposed are going to suffer losses in profitability of between 10 and 20 per cent.

Shouldn't there be enough time now to see how this dubious sounding prediction has panned out?

And as for Anderson's interest in the Coalition's policy:

SABRA LANE: The Government's been strong on this point though. It says that it's consulted widely. It had a number of round table groups. I think you were a member of one of them.
PETER ANDERSON: The Government has undertaken some consultation but it has come up with a flawed proposal.
SABRA LANE: Do you support Tony Abbott's plan to cut carbon?
PETER ANDERSON: Not necessarily. The business community has to subject that proposal to exactly the same rigour that we are subjecting the Government's proposal to.

 Yeah, sure.  I bet we'll see a lot of concern from Anderson about a policy that no economist in the land thinks makes sense for the purpose it says it seeks to achieve.

The accessory for the dedicated US politician

How to Not Urinate for 11 Hours - James Hamblin - The Atlantic

The answer, in the case of the Texas Senator who recently filibustered a proposed abortion law, is (apparently) to insert a urinary catheter and have a bad strapped to her leg.

In other examples of US politics are its weirdest (did it invent the filibuster, by the way?  Why does it seem no other country in the world follows this strange endurance procedure?):

Strom Thurmond famously opted to keep a bucket in an adjacent cloakroom, where he could relieve himself while still keeping a foot on the Senate floor. During a 2001 filibuster, St. Louis Alderwoman Irene Smith had aides surround her with tablecloths while she relieved herself in a trash can in the middle of City Hall. O beautiful for spacious skies.

The whales I never knew were there

Whale carcass may be towed out to sea to save pod | Environment | guardian.co.uk

The story is about some stranded killer whales up at Fraser Island, and ends with this:

Killer whales, also known as orca, follow the humpback whale migration along Australia's east coast to prey on calves.

I didn't know that.  Obviously, their tastes don't run to humans all that much, as I have never heard of an orca being seen anywhere near a beach on the Gold or Sunshine Coast as they pass on their way to or from Hervey Bay. 

I actually assumed they always stayed in colder waters.  My knowledge of marine biology is obviously lacking.

The use of on line photo editting to amuse myself continues (most people can safely ignore...)

PS, the face came from here.   By the time you squash it in, it's sorta hard to tell, I guess.

Some hope yet for a more realistic European carbon market

Europe’s politicians vote to resuscitate carbon market : Nature News Blog

From the link:

The world’s largest carbon-trading market may awaken from its coma: politicians in Europe’s parliament today agreed a plan to revive market prices which have collapsed in the recession.

It’s a change-of-heart from a parliament which had rejected the same idea in April. But although it would lift the market out of total irrelevancy, the plan still won’t raise carbon prices high enough to spur investment in low-carbon energy, which was one of the European trading scheme’s key goals when it was launched in 2005. So some politicians say much deeper reforms are needed. What’s more, the plan still needs to be approved by the ministers of Europe’s member states – a decision that won’t be taken until after Germany’s elections in September.

Clever, clever birds

Animal master-burglars: Cockatoos 'pick' puzzle box locks (w/ Video)

From the article:

A team of scientists from Oxford University, the University of Vienna, and the Max Planck Institute, report in PLOS ONE a study in which ten untrained Goffin's cockatoos [Cacatua goffini] faced a puzzle box showing food (a nut) behind a transparent door secured by a series of five different interlocking devices, each one jamming the next along in the series.

To retrieve the nut the birds had to first remove a pin, then a screw, then a bolt, then turn a wheel 90 degrees, and then shift a latch sideways. One bird, called 'Pipin', cracked the problem unassisted in less than two hours, and several others did it after being helped either by being presented with the series of locks incrementally or being allowed to watch a skilled partner doing it....

After the cockatoos mastered the entire sequence the scientists investigated whether the birds had learnt how to repeat a sequence of actions or instead responded to the effect of each lock.

Dr Alice Auersperg, who led the study at the Goffin Laboratory at Vienna University, said: 'After they had solved the initial problem, we confronted six subjects with so-called 'Transfer tasks' in which some locks were re-ordered, removed, or made non-functional. Statistical analysis showed that they reacted to the changes with immediate sensitivity to the novel situation"

You can videos of the parrots being extraordinarily clever at the link: it seems I can't embed them.

Here comes the drop

There was quite a bit of interest amongst people who follow the state of the Arctic ice cover earlier this year when a large part of it become fractured and broken in (I think) a way that hadn't been seen before.

But then, the NSIDC graph showing ice melt in summer showed ice cover staying much higher for a month or so longer than last year.

But the drop off in cover is now in progress:

The new, improved Kevin

Honestly, it's not just because I don't want Tony Abbott to win, and everyone knows I have long disliked Kevin Rudd and did not think he deserved his win in 2007; but....

I think it's undeniable that Rudd gave an extraordinarily self assured and good performance on his first 7.30 interview last night.   I feel pretty confident that it would have been causing no small amount of anxiety in Abbott's office as they watched it.  

Then this morning, the headline in the Australian indicates Rudd doing exactly the kind of thing that I had been thinking Gillard needed to do:  be seen to be "punishing" the New South Wales Right.

I am not sure what has happened at News Corp overnight, but even Julia Gillard is getting (well deserved) credit for the grace and dignity with which she took her loss of position last week.  This cannot hurt Labor overall.

And back at the ABC, Alan Kohler makes the point I have elsewhere:  Julia Gillard was remarkably unlucky in many respects (I'll do a post listing them one day), and it is certainly possible that any new government will reap the benefits of some positive changes just coming into effect now:

If the ALP loses this year it can count itself very unlucky indeed: the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd Government will have exactly encompassed the second-biggest crash and world recession in history followed by the slowest, most difficult recovery.

Compare that with John Howard, who, after winning that 2001 election, governed during one of the great economic booms in history, escaping into satisfied retirement 24 days after the stock market peaked.

Julia Gillard, in fact, was doubly unlucky because a key part of America's recovery from the bust that its own credit excesses had caused was the debasement of its currency. When the 2010 election was held on August 21, the Australian dollar exchange rate was 89.38 US cents on its way to parity by the end of that year and $US1.10 by mid 2011.

So by coincidence, Gillard's leadership more or less exactly encompassed the period of Aussie dollar strength, caused entirely by US dollar weakness. The good news is that it has allowed 2 percentage points to come off interest rates because of low inflation, but that didn't help Australia's first female prime minister.

 I would not be surprised to see significant betting market odds moving towards Labor as a result of all of this.

Update:   More news of good politics from Rudd:

Kevin Rudd has offered Tony Abbott a series of unprecedented briefings from the nation's security chiefs as he attempts to turn the tables on the Opposition Leader in the debate on asylum seekers.

The Prime Minister has written to Mr Abbott promising access to the heads of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service, the Australian Federal Police, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation and the Immigration Department, saying the coalition should have the latest confidential information on people smuggling.

Rudd's approach to this is very much like Peter Beattie, I think:   admit a past mistake, but move forward with a positive "we can fix it, though" attitude, and people might accept it.

And he is making Abbott look defensive and as if he is the one playing politics if he won't take the briefings on offer.

One final point:  Rudd's manner of speaking last night seemed to me to have few of his old Rudd-isms.    It was more direct, and (if I recall correctly) had none of his faux folkiness which so many have found annoying in the past. 

Update 2:  Anxiety levels are rising at Catallaxy, and the name calling increasing.  How amusing.  

Whoops

I seem to have found a way to delete comments by accident when using my tablet last night.   Two were disappeared, but it wasn't intentional..and I am sorry about that.

How they deal with child abuse allegations in Poland

Poland: A dark side of the Catholic Church | The Economist

Someone writing in The Economist in May this year:

One of the three items also featured my own experience whilst trying to investigate a case for France 24 television. We had spoken to a man who told us he had been abused in the late 1970s by someone who was now rector of a parish in Szczecin. We travelled to the parish and found the cleric in question (who cannot be named for legal reasons) leading mass. Afterwards, I asked him whether he had any comment to make on the allegations, and got an astonishing reaction. Accusing us of filming illegally, the priest led both me and the cameraman into the rectory… and locked us in.

After a few minutes we tried to escape, and were violently blocked by the cleric. Fortunately, in the scuffle that ensued he dropped his keys and we were able to get out. Our detention had lasted less than ten minutes and nobody was hurt. But since we had managed to film the whole thing on two cameras, we gave some of the footage to local journalists.The story made the national news the following day, prompting a degree of fuss, though not exactly an uproar.

What is remarkable is the reaction from the Church. For two days neither parish nor diocese would comment at all. Then came a statement from the diocese spokesman to the effect that they were looking into the possibility of charging us with trespassing and slander. According to prosecutors no such complaint has yet been lodged. We had already reported the incident to the police.

The spokesman also told TVN he had no knowledge of paedophilia charges against the priest in question. The very same spokesman’s signature is on documents relating to the formal complaint the victim lodged with the diocese more than two years ago

A couple of hydrogen fuel cell car stories

Acal Energy says its new hydrogen fuel cell is good for 300,000 miles

From the company's press release:

"Degradation has long held back the potential for the widespread use of hydrogen fuel cells in the automotive sector. Breaking the 10,000 hour threshold during rigorous automotive testing is a key reason our hydrogen fuel cell design and chemistry has been selected for trial by a number of the 6 top automotive OEMs."

He continued: "With our technology, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can drive over 500 miles per tank of fuel, and can be refuelled in less than five minutes, emitting only water. For a driver, the only difference from driving an internal combustion engine car is what's going in the tank, but for the environment the significance of zero carbon emissions is enormous".

I wonder how much a tank of hydrogen will cost, though...

This article Honda, GM plan to establish alliance for fuel-cell vehicle development indicates that quite a few car companies are pursuing the technology, so maybe there is something to it.

The Australian's war on science hots up?

Today it's aging economist Maurice Newman with a litany of crap to the theme of "climate change is bunk" in The Australian.   By the end of the week, it will probably be IPA anti wind gadfly Alan Moran.  We all know from off hand remarks made elsewhere on the web by Judith Sloan (the paper's "contributing economics editor") that she thinks its all overblown rubbish too, but she doesn't tackle the topic head on.   (There are childcare teacher "dimwits" to call out, after all.)

Seriously, is anyone keeping a count on the number of anti climate change articles appearing in the Australian in the last few months?  My impression is that their frequency is increasing, perhaps in anticipation of an election? 

Abbott's scheme taken apart

Tony Abbott's paid parental leave policy: high cost, low benefit | Business | guardian.co.uk

Go to the link for a cool, calm explanation from Greg Jericho as to why Tony Abbott's parental leave is too generous, and too expensive, for no good reason.

A sad case

Parents warned after girl's battery death | The Australian

I for one didn't realise lithium button batteries were as dangerous as this for little kids:

SAFETY experts are trying to educate parents about the dangers of button batteries after the death of a young girl who swallowed one. 
 
Specialists tried desperately to save the four-year-old after she was taken to a hospital on Queensland's Sunshine Coast on Sunday with stomach bleeding.

But there was little that could be done for her.

Safety experts say they're worried parents don't fully understand the dangers in so many household items.

Kidsafe Queensland says an estimated four children a week are rushed to emergency departments across Australia each week after swallowing the batteries.

The biggest danger is when parents don't realise their child has swallowed a button battery, which tends to lodge in kids' throats.

Often parents can simply think their child is coming down with something, with symptoms including vomiting, coughing, abdominal pain and fever.

The Tony Abbott fence straddle continues

Coalition Blow to Local Government Referendum

Tony Abbott is a flaky politician who personally supports the constitutional amendment to clarify once and for all the Federal Government's ability to directly fund local council, but has crumbled under pressure from his dimwit Tea Party/IPA/conspiracist wing of the Coalition to find a way to try to ensure it won't pass.

He's a real disgrace, a million miles from being a "conviction politician" on anything.

A new weapon against high blood pressure

Removing nerves connecting kidney to the brain shown to reduce high blood pressure

Have I heard something about this before?  I can't remember.  Anyway, seems promising (and not overly invasive) for those with really serious blood pressure problems:

A new technique that involves removing the nerves connecting the kidney to the brain has shown to significantly reduce blood pressure and help lower the risk of stroke, heart and renal disease in patients. The procedure, which has very few side effects, has already shown promising results in hard-to-treat cases of high blood pressure....

The procedure, which has been successfully trialled on 19 patients at the BHI, is performed using a fine tube that is inserted in an artery in the patient's leg and positioned in the artery feeding blood to the patient's kidneys. The nerves to the kidney are around the artery and ablated by radio-frequency energy that is emitted from the tube....

Dr Nightingale, who runs the Specialist Hypertension Clinic at the BHI, said: "We have used renal denervation in patients who have hard-to-treat blood pressure. Similar to the results from the basic science experiments, we have also seen reductions in blood pressure which has been essential for reducing the risk of heart and renal disease, and stroke in our patients. This is an exciting new treatment for these patients who have struggled with high blood pressure which tablets are not controlling."

Dr Baumbach, an interventional cardiologist who performed the treatment, added: "The technique is very straight forward, performed as a day case and there are no side-effects. It is becoming a popular technique for patients with both resistance and poor tolerability to high blood pressure medication."

Does Andrew Bolt ever read Catallaxy threads?

Andrew Bolt starts off doing the right thing by calling out anonymous hateful twits who went on line to attack new Labor minister Ed Husic for taking his oath on a Koran, but then he makes a comment which indicates he must (if he was honest) also consider the threads of the Catallaxy (the posts of which seem to supply 30 -50% of his content now) to be the hate-filled poisonous pits:

His anonymous haters are of no account, and do not deserve the attention they are getting. There are too many such trolls on every chat site in the country. They do not deserve to intrude on adult conversation.

Hilariously, the "adult conversation" line is routinely used by the Bolt refugees who have taken over Catallaxy threads as a rejoinder to someone who disagrees with them.

Compare and contrast

Catholic Bishops in the news at Slate:

According to documents released today, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the archbishop of New York, moved nearly $57 million into a cemetery trust fund in 2007 specifically to shield it from lawsuits by victims of clergy sexual abuse. The New York Times has the scoop:

[T]he files released Monday contain a letter [Dolan] wrote to the Vatican in 2007, in which he explained that by transferring the assets, “I foresee an improved protection of these funds from any legal claim and liability.”

The Vatican moved swiftly to approve the request, the files show, even though it often took years to remove known abusers from the priesthood.

The files also reveal graphic details of the alleged abuse, including new revelations about its magnitude:

Archbishop Listecki released a letter last week warning Catholics in his archdiocese that the documents could shake their faith and trying to explain the actions of church leaders while offering apologies to victims.

“Prepare to be shocked,” he wrote. “There are some graphic descriptions about the behavior of some of these priest offenders.”

 Catholic Bishops as recently discussed at Father Z's blog:

From a reader:

When I was in grade school (1990′s), I was taught by a very devout teacher that one should genuflect (kneel?) on both knees with a slight bow of the head when entering/leaving the pew during adoration of the Blessed Sacrament.  I have never really seen this any place else, or even heard it discussed.  I don’t recall my grandfather ever doing this, and he spent at least an hour or more before the Blessed Sacrament each week and went to grade school in the 1930′s when all but one of his teachers were nuns.  What is the proper way to genuflect before the exposed Blessed Sacrament?  Thanks!

It is possible, even probable, that there were some variations of practice when the Blessed Sacrament was exposed. Also, conferences of bishops can, by and large, determine proper practices for Catholics in their regions.  If memory serves, some bishops conferences have eliminated the distinction of the “double-genuflection” when the Blessed Sacrament is exposed.  FAIL.

Against the IPA and the whinging anti-nanny staters

One hundred and fifty ways the nanny state is good for us

Simon Chapman attacks the IPA and its generic and predictable "the nanny state has gone too far!" campaign quite effectively, I think; even if one or two on his list of 150 laws which are "good for us" can be quibbled over.

(Just looking at it quickly, the one which I immediately think is legitimately called into scientific question is uniformly enforced bicycle helmets.   I have just read a recent article in the BMJ about the contradictory evidence on this topic, and the reasons why it is so hard to be certain whether it is a net good.   What I think should be clear to everyone is that it is silly to expect city bicycle hire schemes to be wildly successful if riders have to wear helmets while on those bicycles.  Why can't at least those bicycles be exempt?)

But the funniest anti-anti nanny state come back is this quote, which I don't recall seeing before:

Similar attacks once rained down on Edwin Chadwick, the architect of the first Public Health Act in England in 1848. He proposed the first regulatory measures to control overcrowding, drinking water quality, sewage disposal and building standards.

In response, the Times thundered:

We prefer to take our chance with cholera and the rest than be bullied into health. There is nothing a man hates so much as being cleansed against his will, or having his floors swept, his walls whitewashed, his pet dung heaps cleared away.

 That attitude expressed in the The Times uses exactly the same sentiments as Tim Wilson of the IPA and his new bff, the wannabe cultural warrior Nick Cater:

 As News Limited columnist Nick Cater argues in his recent book The Lucky Culture, there is a moralistic crusade by elites who object to “so-called adults” making different choices to themselves.

By standing up against excessive taxes, rules and regulations, Australians are merely objecting to the idea they are “children emotionally and intellectually” because they, for example, like a couple of beers with their barbecue.

 In fact, the idea that The Times could object to laws requiring the cleaning up of a filthy city sounds a bit hard to believe.  But, no, Googling the quote has led me to this page, from the British Library, which confirms that  The Times did indeed editorially campaign against sanitation, as did The Economist (!)  

In fact, in comments very reminiscent of excuses given by small government economists today regarding government led responses to CO2 emissions and climate change, the British Library notes that 160 odd years ago:

While it would seem that many people - from writers like Charles Dickens to social reformers like Henry Mayhew and civil servants like Edwin Chadwick - were in favour of sanitary reform, there were those who were against it. Often, it wasn't that there was opposition to the reform itself but, rather, to the cost or the effort involved in bringing it about.

Some individuals, usually those with an economic interest in property such as landlords, objected to reform measures - including clean water for every dwelling - because of the cost involved to install them in all of their properties.

Others were sceptical that sanitary reform would even improve the population's health. For example, the journal The Economist also objected to the campaign for sanitary reform, mainly because its editor and contributors believed that cholera and other epidemic diseases and illnesses were not directly caused by poor sanitary measures.

 Talk about your lessons from history...

Some pretty good, sweary, analysis

Swear words old and new: Sexual and religious profanity giving way to sociological taboos. - Slate Magazine

There are too many swear words in this article to allow much quoting of it at this blog, but its analysis of how swearing is changing is pretty good, I think.   (Even though it fails to note one big problem with swearing - it can become a very boring verbal tic, and this should be pointed out to all swearers who can't go more than a couple of sentences before using their favourite word again.)

The point that is made regarding the "sociological" taboos is true, I think, and I agree that it, broadly speaking, a good sign:

“What you can see becoming more taboo are racial slurs, but then also anything that kind of sums someone up,” says Mohr. “So people objecting to fat. And especially something I’ve noticed just in my lifetime is retarded. People and kids on the playground just said it all the time. And now, it’s really taboo.”

McWhorter refers to these as the “sociologically abusive” words. “Not God, not genitals, but minorities,” he says, adding a few others to the list. (You know the ones.) These words and utterances, it seems, are tracing a path that is the opposite of the one currently being traversed by bastard and goddamn and other classics of the cursing genre. “Racist, sexist, fatist terms, those sort of things where you insult the way a person looks, or their ethnic identity, have become far more taboo than they used to be,” Allan says. “People with disabilities generally used to be looked at and laughed at, but that’s not allowed anymore. And it’s becoming more taboo.”

......

“Not to sound too Pollyannaish, but I think this is a positive development,” says Mohr, “a sign that culturally we are able to put ourselves in other people’s shoes a little bit more than we were in the past, and, at least notionally and linguistically, respect people of all sorts.”

No one is perfect

No economist or economics journalist is ever completely right.

Take Tim Colebatch, for example.  I've enjoyed his writing this year, but then he came out a couple of weeks ago and said Julia had to go (well, OK, he can claim poll vindication there, but I'm still not convinced), but today he makes this surprising off the cuff claim:

The reason is simple: he keeps rolling out the same old mantras, to the same rusted-on supporters, rather than trying to win the middle ground. His recent policy statements on industrial relations and northern Australia passed muster as sensible policies, but we need a lot more.

No way is the "build infrastructure and they will come" a "sensible economic policy."  In fact, the policy is just to produce a white paper about how to develop the north of Australia, looking at this "food bowl" idea (already looked at a couple of years ago and dismissed as improbable); tourism (which everyone who has been looking at Queensland for the last 3 years knows is vastly subject to currency movements beyond government control, and the weather) and "building an energy export industry" (meaning gas, an idea which private companies are already or planning on doing.)  

 Bad line, Tim.  Even if Gina still owns part of Fairfax, you must get your act together.

The other economics related matter of interest today in The Age is Michael Pascoe's column, in which he suggests Rudd could indeed make a big splash policy wise by promising to borrow a lot of cheap money to build infrastructure.  He says a lot of economists or business figures support this:

Heather Ridout, John Edwards, Warwick McKibbin, Bob Gregory and Bernie Fraser aren't a particularly radical bunch in the usual left-right sense, but to a greater or lesser degree they've all said it could be a good time for the federal government to be borrowing more, not less. The caveat is what that borrowing is spent on: not recurrent expenditure at this stage, but on capital improvements.

Professor McKibbin has been the most radical, suggesting the government borrow big, in the hundreds of billions of dollars big, at low single-digit interest rates and use the money to build infrastructure that offers double-digit rates of return.

A refinement of that broad proposal that would require less borrowing is that the government builds the infrastructure, de-risks it by maintaining ownership for a while (as it turns out the private sector has no idea how many cars might want to go through a tunnel) and then flog it off to the private sector, using the money gained to build the next stage.

Encouragingly, the NSW state budget contained an element of that very thinking in funding the $10 billion WestConnex toll road. With so many failed private-sector tunnels around the nation, the government will build the road, using its access to cheaper finance, and subsequently privatise it.

The NBN model goes part of the way along the Big Idea superhighway, even keeping the funding off the immediate government balance sheet, but it fails on one major test: demonstrable and independently adjudicated double-digit internal rate of return.

McKibbin himself admits the problem with his plan is that you couldn't trust any politician with the money – the temptation to cater for a little vested interest here, a marginal electorate there, some generous political donors everywhere, is too great.

Which is where the establishment of a genuinely independent, arms-length body to supervise the process becomes paramount – a Reserve Bank of infrastructure. Infrastructure Australia is a step in that direction but not good enough, being more of a wish-list body than a ruthless task master.

The Productivity Commission's rigours would need to be employed for a start. Those who have abused government programs in the past would need to be excluded, for example, the Victorian CFMEU after the desalination plant rorting. To be made to work properly, there would be no room for mates of any colour.

It wouldn't be easy to reverse three years of surplus worship, particularly with the opposition sure to run the obvious lines about Labor just wanting to spend and go further into disastrous debt, but it could be done.

Well, as I said on this topic a few weeks ago, I still have this skepticism about how governments (or anyone) can really work out priorities in infrastructure.   I mean, unless its directly related to an industry (a railway line from a mining area to the coast, a new boat harbour near some industry) how do you really put a productivity figure on something like a new cross city tunnel that speeds up a commute by 15 minutes a day?  

I could, I guess, live with massive infrastructure that moves hard towards green energy; but I'm sure many economists would argue that the right technology is something about which governments should not be attempting to pick winners.

A high speed rail system has some Green credentials, but the sparse population that most of it will run through makes it questionable for a country this size.

So, my problem remains:  sure, Pascoe's idea sounds reasonable - but show me the infrastructure that immediately makes sense, and then I'll be completely convinced.

Not to be tried at home

I see that I missed a post at Mind Hacks a few weeks ago about the history of taking drugs in the most unconventional way.  Many wry comments are inevitably to be made when discussing this:

The earliest accounts of rectal administration of psychoactive drugs come from the Ancient Mayan civilization where ritual enemas were commonly used to induce states of trance and were widely depicted on carvings and pottery.

The image above is a Mayan carving depicting a priest giving reclining man a large ritual enema to the point where he sees winged reptile Gods flying overhead. Sorry hipsters, your parties suck.

It wasn’t just the Mayans, though. The historical use of psychoactive enemas was known throughout the Americas and is still used by traditional societies today.

Unfortunately, we know little about the history of similar practices in Africa but they are certainly present in traditional societies today – and largely known to mainstream science through documented medical emergencies.

In contrast, while it seems that enemas and douching were often used in Ancient Europe (for example, Aristides writes in his Sacred Tales that the goddess Athena appeared to him in a dream and recommended a honey enema – thanks your holiness), they do not seem to have been used for bottom-up drug taking.

However, there is some evidence that in medieval Europe, hallucinogenic ointments were applied to the vagina with some speculation that the ‘witch on a flying broomstick’ cliché arose due to the use of a broomstick-like applicator for strongly psychoactive drugs.

As the first synthesised psychoactive drugs became available in the 19th and early 20th Centuries, specialised delivery devices were quickly developed.

Cocaine was especially likely to be applied down-below because, although it makes you high, it is also an excellent local anaesthetic useful for discomfort and minor surgery. The development of cocaine tampons was considered a medical innovation that was “regarded as an especially effective treatment for gynecological diseases”.

I think we can leave it there, before getting to the topic of taking alcohol that way.  

A message across the aether (which will be understood by few - the rest can just ignore it)

Gee, soon Catallaxy open threads will be down to a face moisturising Perth man sharing gin cocktail recipes with a bunch of middle aged women.

That and a handful of other men with anger management issues, a chronic plagiarist whose copied works still appears at the blog, and young male student who likes to defame  female Australian journalists.  (If Latika Burke cares to email me, I'll provide the link.)

Updates:  I have a theory that Sinclair Davidson's continual defence of  Andrew Leigh - which is otherwise incomprehensible, given that every other economist who shares similar positions to Leigh is considered wrong at the blog - must have a science fiction element to it.  Maybe he once travelled back in time and fathered Andrew is my best guess so far.


 

Infallible or not

Why It's Good To Be Wrong - Issue 2: Uncertainty - Nautilus

Physicist David Deutsch has a somewhat interesting article regarding fallibilism, including (partly) in the context of the Catholic Church.   I liked these paragraphs in particular:

Fallibilism, correctly understood, implies the possibility, not the impossibility, of knowledge, because the very concept of error, if taken seriously, implies that truth exists and can be found. The inherent limitation on human reason, that it can never find solid foundations for ideas, does not constitute any sort of limit on the creation of objective knowledge nor, therefore, on progress. The absence of foundation, whether infallible or probable, is no loss to anyone except tyrants and charlatans, because what the rest of us want from ideas is their content, not their provenance: If your disease has been cured by medical science, and you then become aware that science never proves anything but only disproves theories (and then only tentatively), you do not respond “oh dear, I’ll just have to die, then.”

The theory of knowledge is a tightrope that is the only path from A to B, with a long, hard drop for anyone who steps off on one side into “knowledge is impossible, progress is an illusion” or on the other side into “I must be right, or at least probably right.” Indeed, infallibilism and nihilism are twins. Both fail to understand that mistakes are not only inevitable, they are correctable (fallibly). Which is why they both abhor institutions of substantive criticism and error correction, and denigrate rational thought as useless or fraudulent. They both justify the same tyrannies. They both justify each other.

Carbon pricing seems to be working

Is carbon pricing reducing emissions?

A good analysis at the link of whether carbon pricing, and not just a drop in demand, is behind reduced carbon emissions in making Australian electricity.  Here is one crucial part:

Although it’s difficult to point to concrete short term changes in the electricity market, the carbon price is having an impact on long term investment decisions, which is where the real benefits will start to play out. The economics of power systems mean that it’s much easier to materially affect the investment decisions for a new plant than to affect the short-term dispatch decisions of an existing plant. It has been argued that this already means wind is now cheaper than coal if you’re building a new plant, due to the very large impact of the carbon price on financing costs for emissions-intensive generation options.

The market is clearly responding to long term investment signals towards lower emissions generation. The vast majority of new plants in the planning stages are either renewable or gas-fired. Here again we must acknowledge complexity and the contribution of many factors – much of the investment in renewables is driven by the Renewable Energy Target scheme, and could not be supported by the carbon price alone at this stage.

But the lack of proposals for significant new coal-fired plant is a good indication that the carbon price is having an influence over investor decisions. This is where the real pay-off lies – by avoiding the installation of more coal-fired generators we avoid the very significant greenhouse emissions that would result from those power stations over their 30-year-plus lifetime.