Free advice to Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard

Dear Kevin & Julia,

If you really, really want to help Labor, and (for Kevin) preserve the possibility of returning to the leadership in the future, here's what you could do:

1.  Kevin:  start referring to the Prime Minister as "Julia", on TV, not all the time, but at least once or twice between your insistence on referring to her as "the Prime Minister" (as if her actual name remains poison to you.)

2.  Kevin and Julia:  stage a very public reconciliation meeting for the cameras (perhaps with a couple of other Rudd "enemies" in the background) at which Kevin refers to "Julia" at the key point where he explains that you are reconciled, and Kevin makes it clear that he will co-operate in all respects with campaigning and media appearances so as to not give the impression that he is still competing for the leadership.

3.  Julia:  at the reconciliation meeting, explain that Kevin will return to Cabinet  in the event of the return of the Labor government.  Use the reasoning that it's obviously too late to fit him back in now, and returned Prime Ministers typically do re-shuffle things a bit.  Talk him up as obviously a person who the public wants to see in a more prominent role in government, and you are willing to accommodate this.

Is it beyond the realm of possibility that such an obviously useful tactic could be achieved by Labor?

Colebatch on the dollar, again

Blame it on the dollar, but can we rein it in?

My favourite economics commentator emphasises in this column how much the high Australian dollar alone has been responsible for many business's high operating costs:

Between 2010 and 2013, the IMF estimates, we and our producers have been paying a staggering 55per cent more for goods and services than our US counterparts.

Our costs against the US and the world have doubled in a decade. Not all of that is due to the dollar. Wages and prices have kept rising at vaguely normal pace here, while barely growing at all in Europe, Japan and the US. But the dollar's rise is the main reason.

Since 2010 its average value has been almost 50 per cent higher than it was in the years from 1985 to 2005. Whether you are Ford, BHP, the University of Melbourne or a Wimmera wheat grower, that is a crushing competitive burden.

Relief has come in recent weeks. As the US recovery gains strength and our economy weakens, the dollar has fallen 10 per cent since April 12, when it stood at a 28-year high on the Reserve's index.

But it also sank below parity for some weeks in 2010, 2011 and 2012, only to return again. And it needs to fall much more before many Australian producers will feel confident to invest and expand.

Back to that Lee Smolin book...

Further to my recent post regarding physicist Lee Smolin's new book, I see that someone at Backreaction has put up a link to a copy of its review in Nature.   It makes the argument in the book a little bit clearer.

Something to come back to

At about 70 pages, I don't have time to read this essay I found at arXiv on physics, free will and Turing, but I will come back to it.

Reviewing Darwin and Johnson

Essay Book Reviews - Irish Book Reviews - Dublin Review of Books

I mentioned late last year that there is a short book out by Paul Johnson about Charles Darwin.

This lengthy review is of the kind that seems to make it unnecessary to read the book.  I like this kind of review...

Hope for my brain

Nuclear bomb tests reveal brain regeneration in humans - health - 07 June 2013 - New Scientist

Nuclear bomb tests carried out during the cold war have had an unexpected benefit.

A radioactive carbon isotope expelled by the blasts has been used to date the age of adult human brain cells, providing the first definitive evidence that we generate new brain cells throughout our lives. The study also provides the first model of the dynamics of the process, showing that the regeneration of neurons does not drop off with age as sharply as expected.

Very clever work.

Spices considered, and nutmeg revisited

This seems to be the second series on SBS I've seen in the last couple of years devoted to spices, but I have been enjoying Spice Trip.  Last night they were on Grenada, a country you rarely see on travel shows, looking at nutmeg and mace.

Curiously, the male co-host, a London chef with a name (Stevie!), voice and manner which I thought indicated he was gay, last night noted that he has one child and another on the way.  (He has a wife and two sons, I see.  Maybe the English really are the easiest nationality to mistake as gay.)    This came up in the context of the alleged aphrodisiac qualities of nutmeg - people from Grenada talk a lot, it seems, about how a meal full of nutmeg will assuredly make you "horny". 

My decreasing number of long term readers will recall my interest in nutmeg because of Uncle Scrooge having an addiction to nutmeg tea, which turned out to be kind of unfortunate because you can indeed get high (although not pleasantly so, apparently) from consuming too much of the spice.    And yes, this did get mentioned on the show last night, with a warning that you should consume no more than 5 g a day, and (if I recall correctly) more than 15 g might kill you (!).   I must now weigh a nutmeg nut to check its weight.

Anyhow, I see the whole episode is on DailyMotion, if you are interested:


E4 Spice Trip - Nutmeg - Grenada by zodiacza

What was I saying about Christopher Pyne earlier this week?

Christopher Pyne's strained relationship with the truth* continues to be operating at crisis level, and I don't think they're ever going to be reconciled again:  

Lateline - 06/06/2013: Election countdown: CHRISTOPHER PYNE, MANAGER OF OPP. BUSINESS: I understand from sources within the Labor Party that Julia Gillard demanded that she'd also be able to appear.

TOM IGGULDEN: That was denied by both the Prime Minister's office and the ABC.

LEIGH SALES, 7.30 PRESENTER: For the record, I can confirm that the Prime Minister did none of those things.

TOM IGGULDEN: Mr Pyne claimed the interview had already been recorded.

CHRISTOPHER PYNE: And in her interview, I'm told from my Labor sources that she has demanded that Mr Rudd rule out a challenge to her leadership.

TOM IGGULDEN: In fact, that question was put by Leigh Sales.

* heard at their counselling session:  "It's like he doesn't know me anymore.  I ring, and the next day he claims he can't remember".

Worth a try

Google rolls its own keyboard app for Android 4.0 and up

I have been a bit dissatisfied with Android keyboards on my 10 inch tablet, and find the Apple one better when I go back to use it again, but I haven't really bothered to work out what exactly it is that makes me prefer the latter.

Anyway, a Google keyboard for Android will definitely be worth a try.   Mind you, it will probably form part of the Google grand plan to gather enough information about every user on the planet so as to be able to develop computer based analogues of them in cyberspace.  Maybe this is how resurrection will occur in the distant future, and it's Google in particular which will evolve into God.

I'm sure it's something the process theologians should be giving thought to....

Stephen's problem

Stephen Fry reveals details of recent attempted suicide | Culture | The Guardian

Apparently, he had another suicide attempt last year, despite being on medication for bipolar and being a spokesperson of sorts for mental health.

Like most people, I suppose, I find Fry quite likeable, but suspect his reputation for high intelligence and all round brilliance is probably rather over-rated .   I just wish he would slow down.  He seems the perfect candidate for something like intense meditation for its calming effect.

The remarkable ageing Japan

Japan's oldest community - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I saw this story on Lateline last night and thought it was a poignant illustration of what is happening in the Japanese countryside.

The most remarkable figures from the story are these:

There are more than 7.5 million empty houses and apartments in Japan. That's about 10 per cent of all residences in the country. And here, in this district of Nanmoku, more than two-thirds of homes have been abandoned....

While there are 10 babies in this village, there are also 10 people over the age of 100. 106-year-old Masu Koido is the oldest of the lot.

I didn't quite get why at least one house of a deceased resident, who the neighbours come over to open up every now and then, still seemed to be full of contents and family memorabilia.

If I had enough money, a holiday home in some nice corner of the Japanese countryside would be very pleasant.  A spare one in France is needed too.

Would be interesting if I could read it

Quantum physics: The quantum atom 

This special issue of Nature explores the origin and legacy of Bohr's quantum atom, a model that has resonated ever since. In 1911, Bohr began a postdoctoral year in England that planted the seeds of his thinking. In a Comment on page 27, historian John Heilbron relates how letters from Bohr to his brother Harald and to his fiancée, Margrethe Nørlund, published this year, chart the dauntless physicist's work with J. J. Thomson and Ernest Rutherford, and his study of the papers of John William Nicholson, which presaged his breakthrough.

All stuck behind the ridiculously expensive Nature paywall, unfortunately.   Seriously, who is going to pay £12 for access to an article like that?  

Safety advice

Rescuing drowning children: How to know when someone is in trouble in the water. - Slate Magazine

This is good to know.  It explains how drowning doesn't look like what most people expect.

It certainly seems remarkable how silent it is, given the number of toddlers who drown in backyard pools each year with their parents hearing nothing.  

Looking on the bright side (except for Julia)

The Aussie dollar is doing its bit 

Stephen Koukoulas does his bit to counter the "it's a looming catastrophe" meme that seems to be dominating commentary on the Australian economy at the moment.

The depreciation of the Australian dollar is just the tonic the Australian economy needs.
It will give a welcome income and competitive lift to exporters and will see local firms and industries that are competing with importers get a boost to their activity as the price of imports increase.

For the exporters that maintained solid activity when the dollar was trading around $US1.05, the recent move below $US0.97 will translate directly to higher profits, additional output and jobs. So too for local firms competing with imports.

This sets the scene for a lift in aggregate economic conditions into 2014 and a rebalancing of economic activity a little away from mining and related sectors towards domestic activity.

It is an outlook where the unbroken run of annual GDP growth will almost certainly extend to a 22nd, 23rd and 24th year. This is a truly fantastic performance in the Australian economy.

It is also likely to extend the time in which the unemployment rate has remained below 6 per cent into an 11th, 12th and 13th year.

And aside from the temporary jump in inflation in 2008 which was inspired by the reckless Howard government spending spree, inflation has been within the target range for two decades.

These stunning economic fundamentals have occurred with the Australian dollar being as high as $US1.10 and as low as $US0.4775. Official interest rates have been as high as 7.5 per cent and as low as 2.75 per cent. The budget has registered a deficit as high as 4.3 per cent of GDP and a surplus as large as 2.0 per cent of GDP.

All of which shows that the floating of the Australian dollar, successful inflation targeting from the RBA and a pragmatic approach to fiscal policy have yielded long run economic benefits.

Of course, the terrible thing for Labor is that some commentators believe the Aussie dollar will settle over the next 6 months at about .90US, which will clearly be very advantageous for the economy, and will have nothing to do with a Coalition win in September, but the Coalition will reap the political benefit of it. 

Next for State of Origin?

In what (for me) is an unusual concession to traditional Australian masculinity, I say again that Rugby League as played at its peak in a State of Origin match constitutes the most impressive and watchable sporting event in Australia.

I see in tonight's game that some cameras seem to be being zipped around mounted on Segways.

The next level of camera innovation might be this, one suspects (at least if the 60 seconds it takes for the computer to stitch the image together can be reduced):

 

Good old NHK.