Increased rainfall intensity, as predicted

Heavy rainfall is in the news a lot recently.   A headline in the Washington Post: 

California is already drenched. Now three ‘atmospheric rivers’ may unload two months’ worth of rain.

The midwest is very wet too, and Texas.

And here's a new study on rainfall intensity spotted on twitter:

I see from comments following this Tweet that the denialists take the line "yeah, but it's not that big a problem."

As it's a topic I've been interested in some time, I think common sense suggests that it's in fact a problem for which it is extremely difficult to forecast the economic effects:   I would be very surprised if there is any accurate way to forecast the cost of engineering solutions to landslides, road washouts, and flash flood mitigation generally, both in advanced economies and less advanced ones.  (And some effects are just not going to be capable of being addressed.)

Swedenborg noted

Somewhat amusingly, the Catholic Herald has a column every week entitled "Heretic of the Week", in which they get to more-or-less ridicule various heretical folk from history, both distant and recent. 

One recent interesting one was Bishop James Pike - an American Episcopalian bishop in the 1960's who was on TV a fair bit and was an early advocate for the sort of church reforms which now don't sound so controversial, but were extremely so in his day.  (Ordination of women, abortion, acceptance of gays fully into the church, etc.)    I knew a little about him from his book The Other Side in which he claimed to have got in contact with his dead son via spiritualism.   I probably read that in the paranormal-loving 1970's, and remember thinking that it sounded quite convincing.   Little did I know, however, that the Bishop's personal life was a complete mess:  alcoholism, affairs, and he died in a strange way in the Israeli desert.  I'm pretty sure that he was fictionalised in a Philip K Dick novel too, but I forget which one.

Anyhow, I see that this week's heretic is Emanuel Swedenborg, another character I would have first read about in the 1970's, but one rarely mentioned these days.  As the brief account of his life in the article notes, he was a pretty smart man in his day who went deeply off the planet into visions of angels, the afterlife and alien planets, writing at great length about his experiences and theology. 

He was famous and influential in his day - Wikipedia has a lengthy article about him,  including how he came to Kant's critical attention.

The Catholic Herald notes that the Churches established in his name still have about 7,000 members:

Swedenborg’s vivid writings attracted much interest, providing one strand of the 19th-century occult revival. But in 1817 a denomination was founded on them: the Swedenborgian Church of North America – which suffered a schism in 1890, forming the General Church of the New Jerusalem. Although together the two bodies today have only about 7,000 members, two American folk heroes were Swedenborgians: Johnny Appleseed and Helen Keller.

 I am surprised that it would even have that many members.   Spiritualist and esoteric churches based on generic mysticism have never had longevity in the West - they seem too dependent on charismatic leaders holding it all together.   In a way, I find that a bit sad - it's a bit of a fun fantasy to imagine that there is one small group out there that has actually Worked it All Out with complete accuracy, and it's only a matter of tracking them down.  

Hot in Russia

The Washington Post notes:

Saturday’s steamy 84-degree reading was posted in Arkhangelsk, Russia, where the average high temperature is around 54 this time of year. The city of 350,000 people sits next to the White Sea, which feeds into the Arctic Ocean’s Barents Sea.

In Koynas, a rural area to the east of Arkhangelsk, it was even hotter on Sunday, soaring to 87 degrees (31 Celsius). Many locations in Russia, from the Kazakhstan border to the White Sea, set record-high temperatures over the weekend, some 30 to 40 degrees (around 20 Celsius) above average. The warmth also bled west into Finland, which hit 77 degrees (25 Celsius) Saturday, the country’s warmest temperature of the season so far.

The abnormally warm conditions in this region stemmed from a bulging zone of high pressure centered over western Russia. This particular heat wave, while a manifestation of the arrangement of weather systems and fluctuations in the jet stream, fits into what has been an unusually warm year across the Arctic and most of the mid-latitudes.

In Greenland, for example, the ice sheet’s melt season began about a month early. In Alaska, several rivers saw winter ice break up on their earliest dates on record.

Meanwhile, we have small political parties running here on either a denial of climate change, or a "it's too uncertain to bother doing anything" line.  And one of the major parties still with a large rump of similar folk.

The pro-dog Bible

Biblical Archaeology Review has an article, summarised here, arguing that dogs generally get a pretty positive treatment in the Bible, and from Jews:

Throughout the ancient Near East and Mediterranean, domesticated dogs served as companions, hunting dogs, sheep dogs, and guard dogs. Dogs filled similar roles in the Bible (e.g., Job 30:1; Isaiah 56:10–11). Although dogs sometimes appear in negative contexts in the Bible, such as in insults, they are not listed as ritually “unclean” animals. Strong clarifies that at least by the second century B.C.E., Jews viewed dogs positively:

If the dog was ever considered ritually unclean by the Israelites, it had shed this taboo by the time of the second-century B.C.E. Book of Tobit. When the author narrates Tobias setting off on a long journey, he depicts Tobias’s pet dog exiting the Jewish home to tag along on the adventure, presumably as a companion and co-guardian with the angel Raphael (Tobit 6:2; 11:4).

Dogs as healers has old roots:

Dogs also filled the interesting role of physician in the Greco-Roman world. Strong explains how this developed:

Ancient authors noted, for example, that the dog knows that it should elevate an injured leg, following what Hippocrates prescribed. Alongside other evidence, the ancient observer saw that the dog knows what plants to eat as medicine to induce vomiting if it has eaten something that upsets its stomach, that the dog knows to remove foreign bodies, such as thorns, and that the dog knows to lick its wounds to ensure that they remain clean, understanding that clean wounds heal more quickly.

In the role of physician of the animal kingdom, dogs appear in the cult of Asclepius, the Greek god of medicine. Sacred dogs, living in the god’s temples, would lick visitors’ wounds. Their tongues reputedly soothed and healed.

Given the surprising ability of dogs to sometimes warn their owns of serious disease, the ancients were not completely off the mark.

And also, this puts a different slant on the parable of the Rich Man and Lazarus:

In the parable, dogs lick the wounds of Lazarus. Viewing the dogs as healers, we can see this was a benevolent action. Strong explains that this corrects a previous interpretation of the dogs as malevolent characters: “The function of the dogs licking Lazarus has traditionally been understood by scholars to be a signal of extreme misery. Lazarus must be so disabled that he cannot drive away these ‘unclean’ dogs who are making a meal of him, so the old interpretation goes. But, as we can see now, this act would have been perceived by a first-century audience as a sign of sympathy from the dogs, who have been caring after Lazarus as though his nurses.”

Yay for dogs.

Endorsement of victimhood sought

David Frum's piece in The Atlantic about how Trump is getting angry with the FBI - again! - is good reading:

Trump got extra angry Sunday night. Uncheered by Mother’s Day, the president launched into a sequence of rage tweets that included the line: “The FBI has no leadership.” Trump has fired one FBI director, James Comey, for looking into the Russia matter. He fired an acting director, Andrew McCabe, for the same apparent reason. Apparently, he is now gunning for the present director, Chris Wray.

Why is Trump angry? Trump disjointedly tweeted over linked messages: “The Director is protecting the same gang…..that tried to……..overthrow the President through an illegal coup. (Recommended by previous DOJ) @TomFitton @JudicialWatch”

Trump wants the FBI to endorse his own theory of victimhood—and it won’t. Worse, the FBI was embedded in the Mueller investigation. The FBI received, and still holds, whatever information the investigation gathered about Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, including potential answers to the all-important question: Why? Why was Vladimir Putin so eager to help Trump into the presidency? Why did Russia care so much, and run such risks for him?

This is such a weird situation - and the irony runs deep.   The American Right that so dislikes identity politics when it leads to claims of victimhood won't call out a President whose own victimhood status is based on narcissism.     

Strange German deaths

Sounds rather like some murder suicide by crossbow in Germany.   Also sounds like cult-ish people involved?:

A hotel guest said the man had a long white beard and the women were dressed in black, and described them as "strange".

On arrival on Friday evening they simply wished other guests a "good evening", then went upstairs to their second-floor room with bottles of water and Coca-Cola, said the guest, quoted by Merkur.

In Wittingen a neighbour quoted by Merkur described the 30-year-old woman as "always a bit odd - always dressed in black, sort of gothic".

News from France, and Australia

I feel this is another embarrassing admission, but I didn't realise, until I saw it on SBS this morning, that there was a good English news service from France 24, and its English news website looks very good too.  I believe it is a government funded broadcaster, and according to Wikipedia, it is a very large organisation.

On our public broadcaster, 4 Corners last night had a good episode looking at the issue of children being held in Queensland police watch-houses for unfortunate lengths of time (weeks, in some cases.)   It was pretty remarkable viewing, and (of course), the type of journalism that is non existent in the commercial news sector now.   (I trust people noticed the ridicule that Sky News Outsiders got for including a segment with a climate change astrologer who claimed it was all down to the position of the planets and energy field alignments, etc.   That James Morrow was co-hosting, eroding any credibility in his judgement even further.)  

The value and quality of the ABC is so obvious, I simply can't understand how right wing twits can spend time plotting its demise.  

The dry bar

The BBC reports that some bars in some big cities are trying to operate completely alcohol free, and are (apparently) growing in popularity.

But look at some of the cocktails (don't other countries call them "mocktails"?) one of them serves:

...the menu features a list of $13 (£10) cocktails with ingredients like tobacco syrup, lingonberry and jalapeno puree, with a friendly note from the owners that laptops are not allowed.

First, that's really expensive for a non alcoholic drink.

Secondly:  tobacco syrup, for goodness sake?  There's a taste idea I would run away from.

Vegetable cooking noted

*   Anyone who notices food writing will know that whole baked cauliflower has been the "new" big thing for a couple of years now (especially for vegetarians - there's been so much praise for it, it has sounded like the dish that will convert some to give up meat).    I tried it on the weekend, and have an announcement to make:

It is still cauliflower.

I know there are a thousand different suggestions on the net as to how to prepare and cook it, and I decided on a marinade of tahini, olive oil, garlic, salt and smoked paprika.  Pretty simple, but then again I found one person who just recommended olive oil and salt, and add a sauce at the end.   I went with the "cover in a foil tent for first half hour, then leave it open" method  (as opposed to the reverse.)  I left it in the oven for like 1 hour 20 minutes (it's a ridiculously energy intensive thing to prepare, for few calories.)

And at the end of the day:  yeah, it tastes like cauliflower with an added bit of taste on the outside.

I know:  I read some cooking sites where someone said they had to try several different ways of preparing and cooking it 'til the found the perfect one.  But I just can't see that it is worth the bother.

I think cauliflower and zucchini are both in a race for the blandest vegetables on the market, and really, I can't be bothered with the electricity and cooking experimentation to get either of them into an alleged taste sensation.

People:  just eat another vegetable that already has flavour and cooks in shorter time.

*  My wife makes a very nice, dry style pasta using garlic, anchovies, broccoli, dried chilli and - that's it, really.  Well, some olive oil, I assume.   She even saves time and energy by cooking the broccoli with the pasta.

I really enjoy the drier styles of pasta dishes now.   Less heavy that a meaty or creamy sauce, but still delicious and pretty satisfying with a tiny bit of side protein.  (We had a bit of hot smoked salmon on the side.)

Mongolian camels and their humans

NPR has a story about Mongolia's Biggest Camel Festival, and it features many photos of dolled up camels, like this one:

They do look nicer than some of your other camel versions.

Some history:

Why this regional craze for the two-humped creature? The origin story is intertwined with Mongolia's transition to democracy.

Under socialism, herding was centrally planned. Herders sold their animal products to the state. With the onset of capitalism in 1990, herders faced new pressures within the free-market economy. For some, their camels were worth more dead than alive.

"Camel herders couldn't get a good amount of money selling products from camel milk and wool," says 35-year-old festival organizer Ariunsanaa Narantuya.

Camel milk and wool wouldn't sell, but camel meat would. Some herders began slaughtering their camels. The festival was created a few years later, in 1997, by the newly formed Camel Protection Association — a local nongovernmental organization — to reverse that trend and protect the desert creature.

OK, well that makes me realise that I know very little about Mongolian political history.   I see from  Wikipedia that it sure is geographically unlucky, the way it's caught between China and Russia.   It has, however, transitioned to democracy:

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 strongly influenced Mongolian politics and youth. Its people undertook the peaceful Democratic Revolution in 1990 and the introduction of a multi-party system and a market economy.

A new constitution was introduced in 1992, and the "People's Republic" was dropped from the country's name. The transition to a decentralised economy was often rocky; during the early 1990s the country had to deal with high inflation and food shortages.^[43] The first election victories for non-communist parties came in 1993 (presidential elections) and 1996 (parliamentary elections). China has supported Mongolia's application for membership in to the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and granting it observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.^[44]

Anyway, as a democracy, and they are free to love their furry camels, and hold races of (allegedly) a thousand camels at a time:



I wouldn't mind visiting the place, but probably more to look at it out of the window, rather than to stay there any length of time.   Always looks such a bleak landscape.

Brisbane did not deserve you....

Where am I supposed to buy my Italian washed rind cheese now??

It was only last week that I said I was worried about the very upmarket deli/café/bottle shop Mercado surviving in King Street, in the old Exhibition grounds.

And yes, this morning it's shut, no sign on the door, but some guy who seemed to know what he's talking about said it has gone into receivership. This morning.  Ugh.

To be honest, I doubt it is in the right location.  I could imagine it working in one of the old money suburbs, perhaps Hamilton or Ascot, but it's in an area full of new, mostly small apartments, many ofwhich would have tenants who pay enough on the rent and can't spend up on tiny $9 cans of tuna from Spain, or very expensive cuts of aged steak. 

It's still a pity.  I think they were trying to provide some fish and other items at cheaper prices.  And the staff were very knowledgeable and nice.   There were so many of them, though. 

It's odd when an average Joe like me with no experience in retail can tell a place won't work out. 

Maybe it will be revived with less fancy goods and half the staff.  I hope so.

False beliefs that must change to advance the world

Ugh.  I see the Washington Post has a story about tigers being farmed and eaten in Laos.

I just posted about a ridiculous caste story from India.

No need to mention radical Islam, is there?   Wannabe terrorists (and actual arsonists) were convicted in Canberra yesterday.

Let's make a list of some key false beliefs that need to change to advance the world, and who they are addressed to:

1.    Everyone:    Climate change caused by increasing CO2 and greenhouse gases is not a matter that is any serious scientific doubt.   It's not a vast conspiracy by climate scientists, weather bureaus, socialists, "cultural Marxists" or anyone else.   Scientific advice to reduce the future concentration of greenhouse gases must be followed.   

2.    Various Asians (primarily):   You do not gain particular strength or benefits according to the type or part of animal you eat.   Eating strong animals doesn't make you any stronger than eating lazier animals.     Leave wild animals alone!    Leave most animals alone!  (If you must, do something similar to what Catholics do - invite the generic animal spirit to go into something that's harmless to eat and eat that instead.  Or adopt homeopathy, so the atoms of one dead animal should be enough to make billions of litres of spirit imbued tonic. Either way - happy animal, happy placebo affected human!)

3.    Indians:   Belief in the caste system is an offence to universal human dignity and rights.   Treat all humans with respect, and make opportunity for social and material advancement open to all.   And build more toilets while you're at it.

4.    Muslims:   God does not want you to kill other humans for not believing your brand of your faith.   Respect other faiths, and non belief, if you want to be respected.  (PS - companion dogs are cool, you don't know what you're missing out on.)

5.   Everyone who's inclined to believe it:   natural formations are not sacred.  They may be very cool, awe-inspiring, lovely to look at or be in or on, and important to preserve for environmental or aesthetic reasons:  but they are not sacred.    Gods or spirits might like natural places too, but they don't  fuss about making one spot sacred and other spots not.

To balance things out, seeing 4 out of 5 complaints are about "traditional" or ancient beliefs:

6.  Atheists and modern philosophers:   it's OK to complain that theism doesn't make any sense to you - believers worry about how to make sense of the problem of evil too, amongst other things.   But stop promoting the idea that free will is an illusion and does not exist:  it's an unhealthy meme psychologically and culturally, encouraging defeatism towards the idea of self control and choosing a moral life, however you wish to define that.  (And you may not even be right, anyway - so why promote a belief that has such obvious potential for harm?)

In more "OMG India", news

From the Times of India:

Dalit groom rides horse, community faces boycott 

 If I understand it right, it was the leadership who were boycotting the Dalits who were arrested, which is something, I suppose. 

New information for the sex ed class

Why am I reading this in the Washington Post and not in the Australian media, when it's from Australian researchers?:

It may be possible to pass gonorrhea through kissing, challenging the widely accepted notion that the sexually transmitted disease is spread almost exclusively through sexual contact, a new study says.

Researchers in Australia found that kissing with tongue may be a way to transmit oropharyngeal gonorrhea, or oral gonorrhea, particularly among gay and bisexual men. Although the idea has not been well-studied, one expert says the findings, published Thursday in the journal Sexually Transmitted Infections, could be important for understanding gonorrhea as it continues to spread and become more resistant to treatment.

Not entirely sure what this means for Australian coal

Spotted in the Jakarta Post:

The Indonesian coal price reference (HBA) has continued to decline this month due to shrinking market demand to US$81.86 per ton, or a month-to-month (mtm) decrease of 7.86 percent.

Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ministry spokesperson Agung Pribadi said that East and West Asian countries, especially China and India, were currently limiting their Indonesian coal imports.

“China and India have started to reduce their coal imports from Indonesia. The countries launched a protection policy and have increased domestic coal production to fulfill [local] demands,” Agung said in a statement on Tuesday.