ScienceDaily: Thousands Of Barges Could Save Europe From Deep Freeze
An interesting story above about how Europe could try to keep the Atlantic currents going which keep Europe warmer that it would otherwise be. (These are under threat from melting Greenland ice.)
8,000 barges pumping water at a cost of $50,000,000. Couldn't they just air condition the contintent for that price?
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
More on the cartoon affair
Guardian Unlimited | World dispatch | Drawn conclusions
The above commentary piece in the Guardian is pretty good.
Janet Albrechtsen on the same issue in the Australian today is strangely silent on the American response to the issue. She criticises European and Australian papers for not publishing the cartoons in a show of support for free speech, but I believe that the US media (except for the internet) has not gone out of it ways to publish them either.
(But then again, the US having a muted response is understandable in light of how publicity would likely lead to an increased risk to American defence force personnel already having a hard enough time in Iraq and Afghanistan. I would say that this is clearly behind the government's very conciliatory statement that sounded too soft.)
Anyway, I guess there is not much more to be said on this issue, and I will try not to post about it for some time.
The above commentary piece in the Guardian is pretty good.
Janet Albrechtsen on the same issue in the Australian today is strangely silent on the American response to the issue. She criticises European and Australian papers for not publishing the cartoons in a show of support for free speech, but I believe that the US media (except for the internet) has not gone out of it ways to publish them either.
(But then again, the US having a muted response is understandable in light of how publicity would likely lead to an increased risk to American defence force personnel already having a hard enough time in Iraq and Afghanistan. I would say that this is clearly behind the government's very conciliatory statement that sounded too soft.)
Anyway, I guess there is not much more to be said on this issue, and I will try not to post about it for some time.
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Malaysia Star commentary on the cartoons affair
Press freedom mustnÂ’t be abused
From the article above:
" The action of the European newspapers has further worsened the perceived dichotomy between the West and Islam. They have not helped press freedom but have abused it. They are no different from some political newspapers, whether in Asia or West Asia, with their continuous anti-Semitic stance, negative remarks against Christianity or equating anything Jewish with Zionism."
This is completely overlooking the value of highlighting hypocrisy. And the cartoons are no where near as vicious and nasty as the anti-Semitic ones everyone has seen for years.
From the article above:
" The action of the European newspapers has further worsened the perceived dichotomy between the West and Islam. They have not helped press freedom but have abused it. They are no different from some political newspapers, whether in Asia or West Asia, with their continuous anti-Semitic stance, negative remarks against Christianity or equating anything Jewish with Zionism."
This is completely overlooking the value of highlighting hypocrisy. And the cartoons are no where near as vicious and nasty as the anti-Semitic ones everyone has seen for years.
Why Israel attacking Iranian uranium facilities is a long shot
The Officers' Club: Meanwhile Back in Iran
See the above post for some speculation as to how Israel might possibly stage an attack on Iran. Seems kind of improbable to me.
See the above post for some speculation as to how Israel might possibly stage an attack on Iran. Seems kind of improbable to me.
Monday, February 06, 2006
Some Muslims get it
IslamOnline - Views Section
In the interests of fairness, it should be noted that many Islamic commentators understand the harm that the violent demonstrations about cartoons are causing the reputation of their religion. See the link above for one.
Now that my previous post established that more cartoons might encourage democracy in the Arab world, I should point people towards the following "style guide" to drawing Mohammed:
"The hairstyle of the Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) is mentioned in a number of ahaadeeth, such as the following:
1 – His hair was neither curly nor straight....
It was narrated that Anas ibn Maalik said, describing the Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him), he was of average height, neither very tall nor very short. He had a ruddy complexion, neither very white nor very dark, and his hair was neither curly nor straight. The revelation came to him when he was forty years old.
2 – His hair came down to his earlobes...
3 – His hair sometimes came down to his shoulders ...
4 – The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) used to dye his hair sometimes...
5 – He used to part his hair....
6 – The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) did his Farewell Pilgrimage when his hair was stuck together.
(This means) making some parts of the hair stick to others using gum or something similar, so that the hair is held together and avoids getting dirty and does not need to be washed....
7 – The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) sometimes used to braid his hair, especially when travelling, to keep it from getting dusty. "
Actually, the web site I got that from is full of interesting facts about the Messenger (as he is called). For example, if you ever wondered what the name of his camel was, well, that's a bit controversial:
"Of camels he had al-Qaswaa’, and it was said that she was the camel on which he made his Hijrah; and al-‘Adbaa’ and al-Jad’aa’. Were al-‘Adbaa’ and al-Jad’aa’ one and the same, or two different camels? There is some difference of opinion concerning this."
And I am sure you are wondering, how did he ride his camel:
"The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) rode horses, camels, mules and donkeys. He rode horses both saddled and bareback, and he used to make them gallop them on occasion. He used to ride alone, which was most of the time, but sometimes he would put someone behind him on the camel, or he would put one person behind him and one in front, so there would be three men on one camel. So he would sometimes let some men ride on his camel with him, and on some occasions he let his wives ride with him."
Surely you have to laugh at such a ridiculously detailed answer to a question that seems incredibly irrelevant to anything to do with religion.
Maybe someone is thinking I shouldn't poke fun at Islam this way; after all Christian monks used to argue about how many angels could dance on the head of a pin. But the point is that Christians don't worry about that any more, and we can recognise that medieval Christianity had many obsessions we now consider quite bizarre and therefore wryly amusing (the trade in relics, for example.) Anyway, I would hope that some Muslims agree that this sort of interest in the tiniest detail of their Prophet's life is sort of funny, and rather beside the main point of their religion.
In the interests of fairness, it should be noted that many Islamic commentators understand the harm that the violent demonstrations about cartoons are causing the reputation of their religion. See the link above for one.
Now that my previous post established that more cartoons might encourage democracy in the Arab world, I should point people towards the following "style guide" to drawing Mohammed:
"The hairstyle of the Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) is mentioned in a number of ahaadeeth, such as the following:
1 – His hair was neither curly nor straight....
It was narrated that Anas ibn Maalik said, describing the Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him), he was of average height, neither very tall nor very short. He had a ruddy complexion, neither very white nor very dark, and his hair was neither curly nor straight. The revelation came to him when he was forty years old.
2 – His hair came down to his earlobes...
3 – His hair sometimes came down to his shoulders ...
4 – The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) used to dye his hair sometimes...
5 – He used to part his hair....
6 – The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) did his Farewell Pilgrimage when his hair was stuck together.
(This means) making some parts of the hair stick to others using gum or something similar, so that the hair is held together and avoids getting dirty and does not need to be washed....
7 – The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) sometimes used to braid his hair, especially when travelling, to keep it from getting dusty. "
Actually, the web site I got that from is full of interesting facts about the Messenger (as he is called). For example, if you ever wondered what the name of his camel was, well, that's a bit controversial:
"Of camels he had al-Qaswaa’, and it was said that she was the camel on which he made his Hijrah; and al-‘Adbaa’ and al-Jad’aa’. Were al-‘Adbaa’ and al-Jad’aa’ one and the same, or two different camels? There is some difference of opinion concerning this."
And I am sure you are wondering, how did he ride his camel:
"The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) rode horses, camels, mules and donkeys. He rode horses both saddled and bareback, and he used to make them gallop them on occasion. He used to ride alone, which was most of the time, but sometimes he would put someone behind him on the camel, or he would put one person behind him and one in front, so there would be three men on one camel. So he would sometimes let some men ride on his camel with him, and on some occasions he let his wives ride with him."
Surely you have to laugh at such a ridiculously detailed answer to a question that seems incredibly irrelevant to anything to do with religion.
Maybe someone is thinking I shouldn't poke fun at Islam this way; after all Christian monks used to argue about how many angels could dance on the head of a pin. But the point is that Christians don't worry about that any more, and we can recognise that medieval Christianity had many obsessions we now consider quite bizarre and therefore wryly amusing (the trade in relics, for example.) Anyway, I would hope that some Muslims agree that this sort of interest in the tiniest detail of their Prophet's life is sort of funny, and rather beside the main point of their religion.
Cartoon comments from Arab News
There Are 101 Ways to Skin a Cat
The link above suggests ways in which offended Muslim nations should retaliate against Europe:
"I recommend that we utilize a gradual and escalating approach to boycotting Western goods and services. Starting with luxury items and easily replaceable products as a first step that can be quickly and, relatively painlessly implemented.
We may then move on to more complicated items that require finding alternative sources and working with them to produce goods that match our specifications.
Finally we move on to products that we will need to build our own factories to produce.
This serves several purposes: One, it allows our businessmen to find alternatives to Western products in an organized way. Remember, it is not an easy task to rearrange trading patterns that have been in place for decades, if not centuries.
Second, it allows our economies to realign and adjust to the changed trading environment with a minimum of difficulty.
Third, it allows our non-Western trading partners to adjust their production to fulfill our needs."
Hmm. Sounds like the writer is encouraging the Arab countries to learn how to make stuff themselves instead of just buying it with oil money. Presumably, this will lead to a bigger middle class, which most people think is a preliminary step to having more liberal and democratic countries.
If that is the result - the West should publish more cartoons as soon as possible...
The link above suggests ways in which offended Muslim nations should retaliate against Europe:
"I recommend that we utilize a gradual and escalating approach to boycotting Western goods and services. Starting with luxury items and easily replaceable products as a first step that can be quickly and, relatively painlessly implemented.
We may then move on to more complicated items that require finding alternative sources and working with them to produce goods that match our specifications.
Finally we move on to products that we will need to build our own factories to produce.
This serves several purposes: One, it allows our businessmen to find alternatives to Western products in an organized way. Remember, it is not an easy task to rearrange trading patterns that have been in place for decades, if not centuries.
Second, it allows our economies to realign and adjust to the changed trading environment with a minimum of difficulty.
Third, it allows our non-Western trading partners to adjust their production to fulfill our needs."
Hmm. Sounds like the writer is encouraging the Arab countries to learn how to make stuff themselves instead of just buying it with oil money. Presumably, this will lead to a bigger middle class, which most people think is a preliminary step to having more liberal and democratic countries.
If that is the result - the West should publish more cartoons as soon as possible...
Tim Blair stands up
Tim Blair
It took a little time, but Tim has now posted the cartoons in question. Yay.
I am now waiting for some right wing death bloggers to come up with some more. (I wonder if Blogger is entirely happy with that prospect.) I don't want to see anything out and out nasty (not like you see in Arab papers against the Jews.) But it is kind of funny to think you could presumably draw a stick man, title it "Prophet Mohammed" and still be in trouble.
Update: Zoe Brain fires a broadside that is well worth looking at too.
Update 2: just to be clear about what I meant above: I think it would be interesting to have bloggers have a go at drawing original cartoons that depict Mohammed in a humourous context, but within the bounds of reasonable taste that those in the West or Far East would expect if the figure was, say, Jesus Christ, Bhudda or a Hindu god. I may have a go later tonight myself.
I don't think people should go out of their way to be offensive, but as several people have noted, the Danish cartoons were really very mild, even if the meaning of one or two was somewhat obscure. The one which seems to have caused most offence (the bomb in the turban) is correctly seen as an indictment of where certain strains of Islam are taking us; not an insult to Mohammed himself.
Incidentally, why didn't the makers of "South Park" get targetted when their "Super Best Friends" episode went to air in 2001? (I am not a fan of that show, but I did quite like that episode.) I believe that is Mohammed 3rd from the left in the screen shot here.
It took a little time, but Tim has now posted the cartoons in question. Yay.
I am now waiting for some right wing death bloggers to come up with some more. (I wonder if Blogger is entirely happy with that prospect.) I don't want to see anything out and out nasty (not like you see in Arab papers against the Jews.) But it is kind of funny to think you could presumably draw a stick man, title it "Prophet Mohammed" and still be in trouble.
Update: Zoe Brain fires a broadside that is well worth looking at too.
Update 2: just to be clear about what I meant above: I think it would be interesting to have bloggers have a go at drawing original cartoons that depict Mohammed in a humourous context, but within the bounds of reasonable taste that those in the West or Far East would expect if the figure was, say, Jesus Christ, Bhudda or a Hindu god. I may have a go later tonight myself.
I don't think people should go out of their way to be offensive, but as several people have noted, the Danish cartoons were really very mild, even if the meaning of one or two was somewhat obscure. The one which seems to have caused most offence (the bomb in the turban) is correctly seen as an indictment of where certain strains of Islam are taking us; not an insult to Mohammed himself.
Incidentally, why didn't the makers of "South Park" get targetted when their "Super Best Friends" episode went to air in 2001? (I am not a fan of that show, but I did quite like that episode.) I believe that is Mohammed 3rd from the left in the screen shot here.
Comedians are dumb
Practising the dangerous art of sedition - Opinion - theage.com.au
I note that a bunch of comics who either can't or don't bother reading had another go at complaining about the revised sedition laws.
The article about this in the Age (linked above) is again clearly misleading:
"This afternoon a group of artists will descend on the Arts Centre, in St Kilda Road, and try their hardest to get arrested. Comic Rod Quantock will collect money for an unnamed terrorist organisation, cabaret artist Eddie Perfect will sing his ditty John Howard's Bitches and satirist Max Gillies will assume a stiff marionette smirk and do his utmost to make Prime Minister John Howard look like a twat.
If this isn't urging disaffection with the Government, what is? Such antics are hardly intended to arouse warm, fuzzy feelings for our elected leaders. Under new sedition laws, seditious intent is defined as urging disaffection against the Constitution, the Government of the Commonwealth, or either house of Parliament. Yet, chances are, when Sedition!, the concert, is performed at the Arts Centre this afternoon, nothing will happen."
As I have pointed out several times before, this idea that a person doing something with "seditious intent" (as defined above) is an offence under the legislation is simply wrong.
But can comics read for themselves? Can journalists from The Age? Seems not.
I note that a bunch of comics who either can't or don't bother reading had another go at complaining about the revised sedition laws.
The article about this in the Age (linked above) is again clearly misleading:
"This afternoon a group of artists will descend on the Arts Centre, in St Kilda Road, and try their hardest to get arrested. Comic Rod Quantock will collect money for an unnamed terrorist organisation, cabaret artist Eddie Perfect will sing his ditty John Howard's Bitches and satirist Max Gillies will assume a stiff marionette smirk and do his utmost to make Prime Minister John Howard look like a twat.
If this isn't urging disaffection with the Government, what is? Such antics are hardly intended to arouse warm, fuzzy feelings for our elected leaders. Under new sedition laws, seditious intent is defined as urging disaffection against the Constitution, the Government of the Commonwealth, or either house of Parliament. Yet, chances are, when Sedition!, the concert, is performed at the Arts Centre this afternoon, nothing will happen."
As I have pointed out several times before, this idea that a person doing something with "seditious intent" (as defined above) is an offence under the legislation is simply wrong.
But can comics read for themselves? Can journalists from The Age? Seems not.
No apologies required
Drawn into a religious conflict - Los Angeles Times
The article above in the LA Times is quite a good one on the cartoons and Islam story.
After some historical background (which I presume is more or less accurate, but I am just taking it on trust), the writer (Tim Rutten) has this to say:
"The West's current struggle with a murderous global Sunni Muslim insurgency and the threat of a nuclear-armed theocracy in Iran makes it clear that it's no longer possible to overlook the culture of intolerance, hatred and xenophobia that permeates the Islamic world. The hard work of rooting those things out will have to be done by honest Muslim leaders and intellectuals willing to retrace their tradition's steps and do the intellectual heavy lifting that participation in the modern world requires. They won't be helped, however, if Western governments continue to pander to Islamic sensitivity while looking away from violent Islamic intolerance. They won't be helped by European diplomats and officials who continue to ignore the officially sanctioned hate regularly directed at Jews by the Mideast's government-controlled media, while commiserating with Muslims offended by a few cartoons in the West's free news media.
The decent respect for the opinions of others that life in modern, pluralistic societies requires is not a form of relativism. It will not do, as Isaiah Berlin once put it, to say, "I believe in kindness and you believe in concentration camps" and let's leave it at that."
The only problem I see is: just how much time does the West have to wait for Islam to be revised by its "honest Muslim leaders and intellectuals?" Not a lot, it would seem.
As you may expect, Christopher Hitchens also thinks the US is sounding too sympathetic to Islam. See his article in Slate here.
In the Wall Street Journal there is also criticism of the West (by and large) caving in too easily on this issue:
"The issue, though, is much larger than the question of how to balance press freedom with religious sensibilities; it goes to the heart of the conflict with radical Islam. The Islamists demand no less than absolute supremacy for their religion--and not only in the Muslim world but wherever Muslims may happen to reside. That's why they see no hypocrisy in their demand for "respect" for Islam while the simple display of a cross or a Star of David in Saudi Arabia is illegal. Infidels simply don't have the same rights."
I am waiting to see what Australian commentators have to say about this. I expect something wishy washy from Fairfax press, and presumably something more in line with the above pieces in News Limited.
The article above in the LA Times is quite a good one on the cartoons and Islam story.
After some historical background (which I presume is more or less accurate, but I am just taking it on trust), the writer (Tim Rutten) has this to say:
"The West's current struggle with a murderous global Sunni Muslim insurgency and the threat of a nuclear-armed theocracy in Iran makes it clear that it's no longer possible to overlook the culture of intolerance, hatred and xenophobia that permeates the Islamic world. The hard work of rooting those things out will have to be done by honest Muslim leaders and intellectuals willing to retrace their tradition's steps and do the intellectual heavy lifting that participation in the modern world requires. They won't be helped, however, if Western governments continue to pander to Islamic sensitivity while looking away from violent Islamic intolerance. They won't be helped by European diplomats and officials who continue to ignore the officially sanctioned hate regularly directed at Jews by the Mideast's government-controlled media, while commiserating with Muslims offended by a few cartoons in the West's free news media.
The decent respect for the opinions of others that life in modern, pluralistic societies requires is not a form of relativism. It will not do, as Isaiah Berlin once put it, to say, "I believe in kindness and you believe in concentration camps" and let's leave it at that."
The only problem I see is: just how much time does the West have to wait for Islam to be revised by its "honest Muslim leaders and intellectuals?" Not a lot, it would seem.
As you may expect, Christopher Hitchens also thinks the US is sounding too sympathetic to Islam. See his article in Slate here.
In the Wall Street Journal there is also criticism of the West (by and large) caving in too easily on this issue:
"The issue, though, is much larger than the question of how to balance press freedom with religious sensibilities; it goes to the heart of the conflict with radical Islam. The Islamists demand no less than absolute supremacy for their religion--and not only in the Muslim world but wherever Muslims may happen to reside. That's why they see no hypocrisy in their demand for "respect" for Islam while the simple display of a cross or a Star of David in Saudi Arabia is illegal. Infidels simply don't have the same rights."
I am waiting to see what Australian commentators have to say about this. I expect something wishy washy from Fairfax press, and presumably something more in line with the above pieces in News Limited.
Friday, February 03, 2006
On Alan Turing
The New Yorker: The Critics: Books
If, like me, you a bit about Alan Turing's work but not much about his personal life, the book review above is very interesting. Eccentric genius would seem an appropriate description. (Also gay, which seems not all that common amongst science types.)
The author of the review, Jim Holt, is (I presume) the same Jim Holt who wrote some excellent science stories in Slate magazine. For example, check his exploration of How Will the Universe End. He's a great popular science writer.
If, like me, you a bit about Alan Turing's work but not much about his personal life, the book review above is very interesting. Eccentric genius would seem an appropriate description. (Also gay, which seems not all that common amongst science types.)
The author of the review, Jim Holt, is (I presume) the same Jim Holt who wrote some excellent science stories in Slate magazine. For example, check his exploration of How Will the Universe End. He's a great popular science writer.
The Economist backgrounds the varieties of Islam
Political Islam | Forty shades of green | Economist.com
A lengthy article that is useful in understanding mad Islamists. Give them Madagascar, I say.
A lengthy article that is useful in understanding mad Islamists. Give them Madagascar, I say.
Now, the civility wars
The Australian: Peter Saunders: Don't blame Howard for decline of civility [February 03, 2006]
Much common sense is spoken by Peter Saunders in the above article.
I am well and truly sick of the spurious argument that "economic rationalism" means increased incivility. Apart from Left leaning commentators, does the average person in the street really believe this theory? Maybe some with liberal tendencies would say they do, but probably simply because it has been repeated so often they might assume its truth. I would like to know who first came up with the idea; certainly it has been done to death over the years by those such as Hugh Mackay and Eva Cox. But really, it is the triumph of sloganeering over common sense.
Anyone over 40 knows that there has been a gradual erosion in certain matters of civility since the 1960's that is impossible to plausibly tie to "economic rationalism". For example, the careless use of language regardless of the possible offence caused to the public (I am thinking of those who wear outright crude T Shirts while walking down a shopping mall, or teenagers who swear loudly while waiting for the bus, regardless of the little old ladies sitting next to them.)
"Road rage" is also a completely novel phenomena that I think rarely has anything to do with the quality of the car that annoys the offender.
On the other hand, certain types of incivility have diminished since the 1960's. I suspect that there are not a hell of a lot of catholic kids getting beaten up by State school kids these days.
But overall, yes I agree that incivility has been on the rise, but the reasons set out by Saunders in his article are correct. His ending is particularly telling:
"In the past, when the norms governing public behaviour were clearer than they are today, public figures such as teachers and police officers felt confident about expressing and enforcing them. They knew the rest of the community (including those higher up) would back them up. Today, this confidence is ebbing away. Last October, Sydney magistrate Pat O'Shane dismissed a case brought against a youth who had drunkenly sworn obscenities at police in a public street, and she ordered the police to pay the offender's costs of $2600. She told her court: "I'm not sure there is such a thing as community standards any more."
Statements like this from people in authority can cause huge damage. There are still community standards, but they take a hammering when prominent people such as magistrates refuse to acknowledge them.
If we want to safeguard civility, our teachers, politicians, broadcasters, magistrates and judges must understand how important it is for them not only to recognise that community standards of behaviour still exist, but also to defend them wholeheartedly and tenaciously. If we cannot rely on this, then we are indeed in trouble."
Yes indeed, a lot of the problem is the underlying relativism of much of the Left's moral reasoning, which erodes certainty as to the limits of acceptable behaviour. Yet they have the hide to try to deflect blame onto the bogeyman of economic rationalism.
Much common sense is spoken by Peter Saunders in the above article.
I am well and truly sick of the spurious argument that "economic rationalism" means increased incivility. Apart from Left leaning commentators, does the average person in the street really believe this theory? Maybe some with liberal tendencies would say they do, but probably simply because it has been repeated so often they might assume its truth. I would like to know who first came up with the idea; certainly it has been done to death over the years by those such as Hugh Mackay and Eva Cox. But really, it is the triumph of sloganeering over common sense.
Anyone over 40 knows that there has been a gradual erosion in certain matters of civility since the 1960's that is impossible to plausibly tie to "economic rationalism". For example, the careless use of language regardless of the possible offence caused to the public (I am thinking of those who wear outright crude T Shirts while walking down a shopping mall, or teenagers who swear loudly while waiting for the bus, regardless of the little old ladies sitting next to them.)
"Road rage" is also a completely novel phenomena that I think rarely has anything to do with the quality of the car that annoys the offender.
On the other hand, certain types of incivility have diminished since the 1960's. I suspect that there are not a hell of a lot of catholic kids getting beaten up by State school kids these days.
But overall, yes I agree that incivility has been on the rise, but the reasons set out by Saunders in his article are correct. His ending is particularly telling:
"In the past, when the norms governing public behaviour were clearer than they are today, public figures such as teachers and police officers felt confident about expressing and enforcing them. They knew the rest of the community (including those higher up) would back them up. Today, this confidence is ebbing away. Last October, Sydney magistrate Pat O'Shane dismissed a case brought against a youth who had drunkenly sworn obscenities at police in a public street, and she ordered the police to pay the offender's costs of $2600. She told her court: "I'm not sure there is such a thing as community standards any more."
Statements like this from people in authority can cause huge damage. There are still community standards, but they take a hammering when prominent people such as magistrates refuse to acknowledge them.
If we want to safeguard civility, our teachers, politicians, broadcasters, magistrates and judges must understand how important it is for them not only to recognise that community standards of behaviour still exist, but also to defend them wholeheartedly and tenaciously. If we cannot rely on this, then we are indeed in trouble."
Yes indeed, a lot of the problem is the underlying relativism of much of the Left's moral reasoning, which erodes certainty as to the limits of acceptable behaviour. Yet they have the hide to try to deflect blame onto the bogeyman of economic rationalism.
Thursday, February 02, 2006
Janet Albrechtsen on Howard's history
The Australian: Textbook case of making our past a blame game [February 01, 2006]
Janet's column in yesterday's Australia is an excellent piece. (Assuming she is fairly reporting what is in her child's history text.)
Teachers are a worry.
Janet's column in yesterday's Australia is an excellent piece. (Assuming she is fairly reporting what is in her child's history text.)
Teachers are a worry.
Desktop fusion is real
ScienceDaily: Using Sound Waves To Induce Nuclear Fusion With No External Neutron Source
One hopes that this may lead to something useful in terms of energy production in future.
One hopes that this may lead to something useful in terms of energy production in future.
Yes, it was as stupid as it sounds
Toxic fish advice kept secret - National - smh.com.au
This is an update to the post I did questioning the common sense (or lack thereof) in banning fishing in one area of a harbour, as if they can't swim.
And yes, scientists did realise it was stupid not to do more, but nothing happened for years. Great.
This is an update to the post I did questioning the common sense (or lack thereof) in banning fishing in one area of a harbour, as if they can't swim.
And yes, scientists did realise it was stupid not to do more, but nothing happened for years. Great.
More on contraception & abortion
Is Abortion Bad? - Waiting for the condom crusade. By William Saletan and Katha Pollitt
The link above is to a Slate published exchange of letters between William Saletan (whose New York Times article I strongly recommended a few posts ago) and a critic of his approach.
He quotes more interesting poll results from the USA which indicate that the pro choice lobby really won't convince the public of much if it insists on abortion being just unfortunate, rather than an inherently bad thing. And, as common sense would indicate is appropriate, the later the abortion, the worse the public thinks of it.
The link above is to a Slate published exchange of letters between William Saletan (whose New York Times article I strongly recommended a few posts ago) and a critic of his approach.
He quotes more interesting poll results from the USA which indicate that the pro choice lobby really won't convince the public of much if it insists on abortion being just unfortunate, rather than an inherently bad thing. And, as common sense would indicate is appropriate, the later the abortion, the worse the public thinks of it.
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Meanwhile, up with the sheep...
It's kind of fun to annoy people by talking about a movie I haven't seen and probably won't. Anyway, Brokeback Mountain was the subject of a decidedly gushing comment piece by John Heard in the Australian a couple of days ago. It is, presumably, not a bad movie, but this (emphasis mine) is a bit over the top, isn't it?:
"This curious tale of unabashed same-sex attraction written for the rigidly heterosexual cowboy genre wasn't just a hit in the obvious places, although the queues in Chelsea, New York City, went around the block on opening night.
Rather, it has been watched and re-watched by thousands in the south and especially in Texas, the most masculine, devout, George W.Bush-rearing state in the union.
The personal testimonies on the film's website, left by surprised, delighted or otherwise deeply moved, deeply ordinary Texans and other cowpokes and ranch folk are wrenching. The thought of "good ole boys" sitting down with popcorn and handkerchiefs to watch what is, ostensibly, a chick-flick in man-drag is stunning."
So how big a hit (commercially) is it? From Rotten Tomatoes, I see that it has earned $51 million in the US after 8 weeks in release, and took $6 million last weekend (presumably, there is a bounce in ticket sales from all the recent awards.) By comparison, something like "Fun with Dick and Jane", a poorly reviewed Jim Carrey comedy, has made $106 million.
My point is: until a movie reaches about $100 million in the US, it doesn't exactly have "big hit" written all over it. (King Kong took over $200 million and is considered a bit of a flop, but then it did cost about that to make. I presume there are few special effects up on Brokeback.) (Gosh it is hard to avoid trying to be funny about that movie.)
Speaking of movie hits, have a look at that Rotten Tomatoes link to see how much money the prominent Oscar nominated films have made this year. Not only has Hollywood seemingly decided to try to annoy all Red States, it has also apparently set poor-to-middling box office performance as a criteria for attention.
"This curious tale of unabashed same-sex attraction written for the rigidly heterosexual cowboy genre wasn't just a hit in the obvious places, although the queues in Chelsea, New York City, went around the block on opening night.
Rather, it has been watched and re-watched by thousands in the south and especially in Texas, the most masculine, devout, George W.Bush-rearing state in the union.
The personal testimonies on the film's website, left by surprised, delighted or otherwise deeply moved, deeply ordinary Texans and other cowpokes and ranch folk are wrenching. The thought of "good ole boys" sitting down with popcorn and handkerchiefs to watch what is, ostensibly, a chick-flick in man-drag is stunning."
So how big a hit (commercially) is it? From Rotten Tomatoes, I see that it has earned $51 million in the US after 8 weeks in release, and took $6 million last weekend (presumably, there is a bounce in ticket sales from all the recent awards.) By comparison, something like "Fun with Dick and Jane", a poorly reviewed Jim Carrey comedy, has made $106 million.
My point is: until a movie reaches about $100 million in the US, it doesn't exactly have "big hit" written all over it. (King Kong took over $200 million and is considered a bit of a flop, but then it did cost about that to make. I presume there are few special effects up on Brokeback.) (Gosh it is hard to avoid trying to be funny about that movie.)
Speaking of movie hits, have a look at that Rotten Tomatoes link to see how much money the prominent Oscar nominated films have made this year. Not only has Hollywood seemingly decided to try to annoy all Red States, it has also apparently set poor-to-middling box office performance as a criteria for attention.
Some more Middle East thoughts
* On Hamas in the Middle East: Salon.com (of course) is trying to blame George W for the success of Hamas and wants to ridicule him over the failure of "democracy" to deliver acceptable outcomes. The argument that you can't expect democracy to have good results unless it is based "on a rule of law, on stable institutions, on basic economic security for the population, and on checks and balances that forestall a tyranny of the majority" initially sounds plausible, but on closer reflection it is all a bit "chicken and egg" isn't it? I mean, undemocratic governments don't have much incentive to set up well for up a system that is likely to kick them out, do they? And in the case of Iraq in particular, there was not exactly a hell of a lot of time to be spent on establishing the liberal society first before giving democracy a try, was there?
Maybe it comes down, then, to some liberals just believing that the Middle East should be left to flounder in its own mess. Maybe next century they will be ready for democracy..
But one further point that Juan Cole makes in his article (which, incidentally, has a particularly snide header, even for Salon: "How do you like your democracy now, Mr Bush?") perhaps shows the flaw in his pessimism. He writes (emphasis mine):
" To be sure, many Israelis believe that Hamas is only using the truce to rearm, that it will never change its opposition to the very existence of Israel, and that any negotiations with the Islamist group will only weaken the Jewish state. And Hamas' failure to speak clearly about its intentions does nothing to allay such fears. But no one has ever put Hamas to the test. Neither Bush nor Israel have ever made good-faith efforts to resolve the underlying issues, preferring to issue moralistic denunciations that ignore the reality on the ground."
As an article I linked to in a previous post noted, it is the fact that Hamas now has to take responsibility and not hide behind its "government" that actually gives some cautious ground for optimism.
Maybe it comes down, then, to some liberals just believing that the Middle East should be left to flounder in its own mess. Maybe next century they will be ready for democracy..
But one further point that Juan Cole makes in his article (which, incidentally, has a particularly snide header, even for Salon: "How do you like your democracy now, Mr Bush?") perhaps shows the flaw in his pessimism. He writes (emphasis mine):
" To be sure, many Israelis believe that Hamas is only using the truce to rearm, that it will never change its opposition to the very existence of Israel, and that any negotiations with the Islamist group will only weaken the Jewish state. And Hamas' failure to speak clearly about its intentions does nothing to allay such fears. But no one has ever put Hamas to the test. Neither Bush nor Israel have ever made good-faith efforts to resolve the underlying issues, preferring to issue moralistic denunciations that ignore the reality on the ground."
As an article I linked to in a previous post noted, it is the fact that Hamas now has to take responsibility and not hide behind its "government" that actually gives some cautious ground for optimism.
Monday, January 30, 2006
Black holes at the CERN collider - will physicists bring the earth to a premature end?
In December, I did a short post referring readers to this website: www.risk-evaluation-forum.org/index.htm. I found the site intriguing, as the author did appear to have some knowledge of physics and made arguments which, at least on the face of it, appeared plausible and concerning. It's time I did a full post about this.
Background - how black holes may be coming to your neighbourhood
As James Blodgett (the author of the above site) explains, there is a large particle accelerator being built in Europe by CERN called the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) which is expected to come "on line" in 2007. This is a huge project, which was the subject of a recent BBC background report here.
For a relatively straightforward explanation of how it is that black holes might be created by the LHC, see this article from Analog. My explanation (subject always to correction, as I am no scientist) is this:
Since at least 2001, which was presumably well after the LHC project was planned, physicists have realised that if there are large "extra dimensions" to the universe, the energies that might be required to create a microscopic black hole may be within the reach of the LHC. For papers describing this in full technical detail, try this one by Webber, and Blodgett cites others others in different parts of his website. Physicists are excited by the possibility, as it would really be a very new field of inquiry for particle physics.
The idea of there perhaps being large extra dimensions has become a popular theory relatively recently, but there has been a lot of work about it the last, I think, decade or so. (Also, see this search at the arxiv.org site to see the large amount of attention possible black hole production at the LHC is getting.) From what I understand, the large extra dimensions idea is different from, but not inconsistent with, string theory, which proposes that there are very tiny hidden extra dimensions bound up so tightly that no one has any idea yet how they can be verified experimentally.
Black holes are created by compressing stuff so tightly that its gravity prevents anything escaping, even light. (Although there may be a type of radiation from them anyway, as I will note below.) If other matter is nearby, they can suck it in and grow, as indeed is believed to be happening at many astronomically sized black holes throughout the universe. Sounds dangerous, and physicists have thought about the safety aspects of creating a micro black hole.
Back in 1999 there was a bit of media attention given to the RHIC accelerator in the USA, and whether it would cause the end of the earth, or even the entire universe, through production of a "strangelet" or other ways. A risk assessment paper was done on this, and it also considered whether black holes could be created at that accelerator. That paper is here.
The paper quickly concluded that there was no where near enough energy in that accelerator's collisions to create a black hole. They spent much more time on "strangelets", but concluded that they are a very small risk. The argument that clinches this is that cosmic rays (which are tiny, naturally produced, subatomic particles traveling at enormous speed) have been crashing into the planets and our moon for billions of years at much higher energies than what can be achieved in particle accelerators, and they have not caused the destruction of any solar system body yet. Work at lower energies is therefore also presumed safe.
There is a similar "risk assessment" style paper dated June 2002 on the LHC, which is a substantially more powerful collider.
This paper acknowledges that micro black holes might be created at the LHC, but also assumes that they will not be any danger to the earth because they are expected to evaporate (my term, not there's) almost instantaneously with their creation.
(Famous physicist Stephen Hawking predicted early in his career that black holes will, in effect, evaporate due to quantum effects at their edge. It's called Hawking Radiation, or HR in the rest of this post. The smaller the black hole, the faster the HR process, and the theory goes that a tiny black hole created in the LHC would instantaneously evaporate in a spray of subatomic particles. It would be this process by which the detectors would in fact know that a black hole had [very temporarily] been created. Black holes which absorb surrounding matter at a rate faster than they lose weight through HR will grow in size, but once there is nothing around them to "accrete", they will start losing weight again.)
The 2002 paper does not mention the 'cosmic ray' argument except in the context of strangelets. However, at the CERN website there is a page where this argument is referred to in the context of black holes too. See here, where it is said:
"It should be stated, in conclusion, that these black holes are not dangerous and do not threaten to swallow up our already much-abused planet. The theoretical arguments and the obvious harmlessness of any black holes that, according to these models, would have to be formed from the interaction of cosmic rays with celestial bodies, mean that we can regard them with perfect equanimity."
So - what's the problem?
Well, as Blodgett notes, and a search of the arxiv site confirms, that there are credible physicists who doubt that HR actually exists. Although astronomers believe they have strong evidence of massive black holes in the centre of galaxies, HR is too faint to be observed that way.
So, the fundamental problem comes down to this: the CERN risk assessment paper is based on HR definitely happening. They do not consider in any detail what may happen if a micro black hole does not disappear quickly.
What about the cosmic ray argument?
Blodgett notes that if cosmic rays create black holes, they would nearly always be doing it by a very fast particle (a cosmic ray) smashing into a relatively stationary one (a bit of the moon, say.) The micro black hole created that way should therefore have high velocity. This is quite different from the LHC process, which would create its high energy interactions by head-on collisions of 2 streams of particles traveling at similar speeds in opposite directions.
In the case of the LHC, the momentum of the particles would often cancel each other out resulting in potential particles (such as micro black holes) that are moving below the earth's escape velocity.
This is important, because all micro black holes would be so small that no one expects them to be highly interactive with ordinary matter, and a speeding one might zip through a planet in much the same way a bullet might pass harmlessly through a room full of balloons. Ones created in the LHC, on the other hand, have time to settle into the core of the earth, and lots of time to interact with matter there. It is also possible that the LHC will create hundreds of such black holes during its experiments. (Blodgett has obtained definite confirmation on this point from a physicist wrote a paper and who did correspond with him for a time.)
How fast could a stable micro black hole absorb other particles?
Blodgett readily acknowledges that micro black holes may not be capable of absorbing anything at a rate which represents a real problem anyway. His point is, however, that physicists do not seem to have done detailed work on 'worst possible case' scenarios because they assume that HR means this is just not going to be a problem in the first place.
Blodgett points out that at least one paper suggests that a black hole based on the 'extra dimensions' theory could have a larger radius than a 'normal' black hole in a universe without extra dimensions. He also raises the issue of conditions in the interior of the earth and how that would affect a micro black hole's accretion rate.
He worries, although without providing any real detail on his site, that there are some scenarios in which a dangerous accretion rate (with expotential growth of a micro black hole) is possible. Just how fast this may mean that it could eat the earth is not clear. I take it that Blodgett does not think it likely that the earth would disappear in such a hole in a day or a year. However, even if it may mean that the earth could end up as a tiny black hole within, say, 10,000 or a 100,000 years, wouldn't people be a little concerned about that?
What do I think of all this?
During the weeks since I found Blodgett's site, I have had email correspondence with him about his background and motives. He is not a physicist, but does have some qualifications in statistics and other topics. He certainly seems to have better maths than me.
He appears genuine; and not a "nutter".
What I like about his site is that he is open about being willing to be proved wrong.
He told me that he has tried to obtain some publicity for his site, with very limited success. He has tried contacting quite a few physicists, most of whom have been immediately dismissive.
I has some experience of this myself. I raised his site at a 'group blog' run by a bunch of particle physicists called Cosmic Varience. This particular thread was about what the LHC may or may not find. (Some people fear it won't turn up anything very new at all, at great expense.) My first comment was at comment no. 45. It is well worth reading the comments thread from that point on. Note the initial snide reaction of particle physicist Mark (who is one of the group bloggers).
I emailed James Blodgett and told him about the thread. He made a couple of subsequent posts; I think it is fair to say that Mark did not take well to being questioned by a non physicist. I ended with a polite request for further response to articles I found myself indicating that they is a lot of uncertainly about HR as a process, but did not get an answer.
Blodgett says this is fairly typical of the reaction he has received in contacting other physicists.
I have emailed a couple of other physicists who appear to know a lot about black hole theory about the issues (very briefly), and while I did receive an answer from one, it seemed clear that he had not read Blodgett's site in any detail.
There are threads on other physics forums about the issue, but none that I have read seem to have dealt with Blodgett's arguments in adequate detail.
My conclusions:
1. It is clear that the current published paper by the CERN safety committee is inadequate in that it bases its arguments regarding micro black holes solely on the assumption that HR does exist. For this point alone, I think Blodgett deserves praise.
2. I see no published evidence that particle physicists have taken seriously Blodgett's suggestion that the "cosmic ray" argument is a flawed analogy in the case of micro black holes from the LHC.
3. It is possible that, even without HR, accretion rates for micro black holes within the earth's interior might be so slow that the worst possible case is not worth worrying about. But again, I see no clear evidence that they have done the work of looking at "worst case scenarios".
4. It is possible that some physicists have done some calculations on the scenarios that Blodgett suggests and have formed the opinion that there really is no problem. If so, they are doing a terrible job at explaining to anyone asking the question whether Blodgett's concerns are misplaced. It certainly seems that some particle physicists simply don't like to be questioned about this. The fact that there is a huge investment at stake may help explain some of the animosity, although I am not suggesting that a physicist who realised there was a danger would try to hide it. I do wonder, though, whether it makes them not want to look into it in too much detail.
5. One other point I have not yet mentioned: if micro black holes can be created by cosmic rays and do evaporate via HR, then it should already be happening above our heads in the earth's atmosphere. New Scientist ran a story about that here. There is already work underway to see if the decay of such micro black holes can be detected. If it is, it would be a confirmation of HR really working, and the LHC could go ahead confident in that knowledge. It seems to me that a strong case could presently be made for not starting up the LHC until the search for atmospheric decay of 'cosmic ray' black holes has been given a good chance of success.
Also, a very recent article suggest that there might be another way of testing if "extra dimensions" exist. If they are confirmed, it would presumably suggest that the LHC will definitely create micro black holes, although it may not add much to the issue of whether HR works.
An appeal
This issue has not exactly caused me to lose sleep, but I have spent a fair bit of time reading on the internet about the issues, and thinking about it. It does worry me that a published risk assessment paper from CERN about the possible risk of their destroying the earth does seem to be clearly inadequate in detail when addressing micro black holes. Although I think Blodgett is not as transparent on his web site as he could be, his arguments make some intuitive sense to me.
If they re-wrote it to address the issues Blodgett makes, I would be much happier. But I get the impression that this has not yet happened because:
a. relatively few physicists think there is much risk of HR not existing (even though there seem to be quite a few credible papers on exactly this point)
b. the possibility of micro black holes being created at LHC was only realised a few years ago, and papers are still being produced at a great rate with new ideas about their possible character and fate. (Some papers suggest that a "remnant" will be left from the HR process. I guess that these are not thought to be potentially dangerous either, but the exact nature of such a particle has not been clearly explained in anything I have read);
c. Blodgett's questions are being asked by non physicists.
If any reader of this post has any contacts with physicists who are interested in addressing the issues Blodgett raises, please ask them to have a look at it for us. It's only the issue of the future of the earth at stake.
Update: in the interests of showing independence, I did not provide a copy of this to James Blodgett prior to posting. I have advised him of its existence, and invited him to comment if he thinks I have got any point wrong.
Also: only today I found this old thread on a physics forum site which contains posts by Blodgett and some responses he receives. They are well worth reading, especially the last one by him here.
Blodgett's point about the difficulty of trying to work out possible accretion scenarios when quantum gravity is not understood seems very valid. It is the apparent lack of response to these issues that worries me.
UPDATE SEPT 2008: I see that this post is still getting quite a bit of attention from people Googling for information now that the LHC is nearing operation.
Readers should be aware that I made many subsequent posts relevant to the topic after this one. As I don't tag my posts, the best way to find them is to go to the current page for my blog and use the search blog facility for "black holes".
The short story is that I had been somewhat relieved by the work published mid 2008 by Mangano that gave reasons why micro black holes could not be a danger. Then this month, I found that there was potentially a new reason to worry. The status of the Plaga suggestion of how Hawking Radiation itself might be a danger is unclear to me: Mangano says he makes a fundamental mistake, but I find it hard to follow.
Background - how black holes may be coming to your neighbourhood
As James Blodgett (the author of the above site) explains, there is a large particle accelerator being built in Europe by CERN called the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) which is expected to come "on line" in 2007. This is a huge project, which was the subject of a recent BBC background report here.
For a relatively straightforward explanation of how it is that black holes might be created by the LHC, see this article from Analog. My explanation (subject always to correction, as I am no scientist) is this:
Since at least 2001, which was presumably well after the LHC project was planned, physicists have realised that if there are large "extra dimensions" to the universe, the energies that might be required to create a microscopic black hole may be within the reach of the LHC. For papers describing this in full technical detail, try this one by Webber, and Blodgett cites others others in different parts of his website. Physicists are excited by the possibility, as it would really be a very new field of inquiry for particle physics.
The idea of there perhaps being large extra dimensions has become a popular theory relatively recently, but there has been a lot of work about it the last, I think, decade or so. (Also, see this search at the arxiv.org site to see the large amount of attention possible black hole production at the LHC is getting.) From what I understand, the large extra dimensions idea is different from, but not inconsistent with, string theory, which proposes that there are very tiny hidden extra dimensions bound up so tightly that no one has any idea yet how they can be verified experimentally.
Black holes are created by compressing stuff so tightly that its gravity prevents anything escaping, even light. (Although there may be a type of radiation from them anyway, as I will note below.) If other matter is nearby, they can suck it in and grow, as indeed is believed to be happening at many astronomically sized black holes throughout the universe. Sounds dangerous, and physicists have thought about the safety aspects of creating a micro black hole.
Back in 1999 there was a bit of media attention given to the RHIC accelerator in the USA, and whether it would cause the end of the earth, or even the entire universe, through production of a "strangelet" or other ways. A risk assessment paper was done on this, and it also considered whether black holes could be created at that accelerator. That paper is here.
The paper quickly concluded that there was no where near enough energy in that accelerator's collisions to create a black hole. They spent much more time on "strangelets", but concluded that they are a very small risk. The argument that clinches this is that cosmic rays (which are tiny, naturally produced, subatomic particles traveling at enormous speed) have been crashing into the planets and our moon for billions of years at much higher energies than what can be achieved in particle accelerators, and they have not caused the destruction of any solar system body yet. Work at lower energies is therefore also presumed safe.
There is a similar "risk assessment" style paper dated June 2002 on the LHC, which is a substantially more powerful collider.
This paper acknowledges that micro black holes might be created at the LHC, but also assumes that they will not be any danger to the earth because they are expected to evaporate (my term, not there's) almost instantaneously with their creation.
(Famous physicist Stephen Hawking predicted early in his career that black holes will, in effect, evaporate due to quantum effects at their edge. It's called Hawking Radiation, or HR in the rest of this post. The smaller the black hole, the faster the HR process, and the theory goes that a tiny black hole created in the LHC would instantaneously evaporate in a spray of subatomic particles. It would be this process by which the detectors would in fact know that a black hole had [very temporarily] been created. Black holes which absorb surrounding matter at a rate faster than they lose weight through HR will grow in size, but once there is nothing around them to "accrete", they will start losing weight again.)
The 2002 paper does not mention the 'cosmic ray' argument except in the context of strangelets. However, at the CERN website there is a page where this argument is referred to in the context of black holes too. See here, where it is said:
"It should be stated, in conclusion, that these black holes are not dangerous and do not threaten to swallow up our already much-abused planet. The theoretical arguments and the obvious harmlessness of any black holes that, according to these models, would have to be formed from the interaction of cosmic rays with celestial bodies, mean that we can regard them with perfect equanimity."
So - what's the problem?
Well, as Blodgett notes, and a search of the arxiv site confirms, that there are credible physicists who doubt that HR actually exists. Although astronomers believe they have strong evidence of massive black holes in the centre of galaxies, HR is too faint to be observed that way.
So, the fundamental problem comes down to this: the CERN risk assessment paper is based on HR definitely happening. They do not consider in any detail what may happen if a micro black hole does not disappear quickly.
What about the cosmic ray argument?
Blodgett notes that if cosmic rays create black holes, they would nearly always be doing it by a very fast particle (a cosmic ray) smashing into a relatively stationary one (a bit of the moon, say.) The micro black hole created that way should therefore have high velocity. This is quite different from the LHC process, which would create its high energy interactions by head-on collisions of 2 streams of particles traveling at similar speeds in opposite directions.
In the case of the LHC, the momentum of the particles would often cancel each other out resulting in potential particles (such as micro black holes) that are moving below the earth's escape velocity.
This is important, because all micro black holes would be so small that no one expects them to be highly interactive with ordinary matter, and a speeding one might zip through a planet in much the same way a bullet might pass harmlessly through a room full of balloons. Ones created in the LHC, on the other hand, have time to settle into the core of the earth, and lots of time to interact with matter there. It is also possible that the LHC will create hundreds of such black holes during its experiments. (Blodgett has obtained definite confirmation on this point from a physicist wrote a paper and who did correspond with him for a time.)
How fast could a stable micro black hole absorb other particles?
Blodgett readily acknowledges that micro black holes may not be capable of absorbing anything at a rate which represents a real problem anyway. His point is, however, that physicists do not seem to have done detailed work on 'worst possible case' scenarios because they assume that HR means this is just not going to be a problem in the first place.
Blodgett points out that at least one paper suggests that a black hole based on the 'extra dimensions' theory could have a larger radius than a 'normal' black hole in a universe without extra dimensions. He also raises the issue of conditions in the interior of the earth and how that would affect a micro black hole's accretion rate.
He worries, although without providing any real detail on his site, that there are some scenarios in which a dangerous accretion rate (with expotential growth of a micro black hole) is possible. Just how fast this may mean that it could eat the earth is not clear. I take it that Blodgett does not think it likely that the earth would disappear in such a hole in a day or a year. However, even if it may mean that the earth could end up as a tiny black hole within, say, 10,000 or a 100,000 years, wouldn't people be a little concerned about that?
What do I think of all this?
During the weeks since I found Blodgett's site, I have had email correspondence with him about his background and motives. He is not a physicist, but does have some qualifications in statistics and other topics. He certainly seems to have better maths than me.
He appears genuine; and not a "nutter".
What I like about his site is that he is open about being willing to be proved wrong.
He told me that he has tried to obtain some publicity for his site, with very limited success. He has tried contacting quite a few physicists, most of whom have been immediately dismissive.
I has some experience of this myself. I raised his site at a 'group blog' run by a bunch of particle physicists called Cosmic Varience. This particular thread was about what the LHC may or may not find. (Some people fear it won't turn up anything very new at all, at great expense.) My first comment was at comment no. 45. It is well worth reading the comments thread from that point on. Note the initial snide reaction of particle physicist Mark (who is one of the group bloggers).
I emailed James Blodgett and told him about the thread. He made a couple of subsequent posts; I think it is fair to say that Mark did not take well to being questioned by a non physicist. I ended with a polite request for further response to articles I found myself indicating that they is a lot of uncertainly about HR as a process, but did not get an answer.
Blodgett says this is fairly typical of the reaction he has received in contacting other physicists.
I have emailed a couple of other physicists who appear to know a lot about black hole theory about the issues (very briefly), and while I did receive an answer from one, it seemed clear that he had not read Blodgett's site in any detail.
There are threads on other physics forums about the issue, but none that I have read seem to have dealt with Blodgett's arguments in adequate detail.
My conclusions:
1. It is clear that the current published paper by the CERN safety committee is inadequate in that it bases its arguments regarding micro black holes solely on the assumption that HR does exist. For this point alone, I think Blodgett deserves praise.
2. I see no published evidence that particle physicists have taken seriously Blodgett's suggestion that the "cosmic ray" argument is a flawed analogy in the case of micro black holes from the LHC.
3. It is possible that, even without HR, accretion rates for micro black holes within the earth's interior might be so slow that the worst possible case is not worth worrying about. But again, I see no clear evidence that they have done the work of looking at "worst case scenarios".
4. It is possible that some physicists have done some calculations on the scenarios that Blodgett suggests and have formed the opinion that there really is no problem. If so, they are doing a terrible job at explaining to anyone asking the question whether Blodgett's concerns are misplaced. It certainly seems that some particle physicists simply don't like to be questioned about this. The fact that there is a huge investment at stake may help explain some of the animosity, although I am not suggesting that a physicist who realised there was a danger would try to hide it. I do wonder, though, whether it makes them not want to look into it in too much detail.
5. One other point I have not yet mentioned: if micro black holes can be created by cosmic rays and do evaporate via HR, then it should already be happening above our heads in the earth's atmosphere. New Scientist ran a story about that here. There is already work underway to see if the decay of such micro black holes can be detected. If it is, it would be a confirmation of HR really working, and the LHC could go ahead confident in that knowledge. It seems to me that a strong case could presently be made for not starting up the LHC until the search for atmospheric decay of 'cosmic ray' black holes has been given a good chance of success.
Also, a very recent article suggest that there might be another way of testing if "extra dimensions" exist. If they are confirmed, it would presumably suggest that the LHC will definitely create micro black holes, although it may not add much to the issue of whether HR works.
An appeal
This issue has not exactly caused me to lose sleep, but I have spent a fair bit of time reading on the internet about the issues, and thinking about it. It does worry me that a published risk assessment paper from CERN about the possible risk of their destroying the earth does seem to be clearly inadequate in detail when addressing micro black holes. Although I think Blodgett is not as transparent on his web site as he could be, his arguments make some intuitive sense to me.
If they re-wrote it to address the issues Blodgett makes, I would be much happier. But I get the impression that this has not yet happened because:
a. relatively few physicists think there is much risk of HR not existing (even though there seem to be quite a few credible papers on exactly this point)
b. the possibility of micro black holes being created at LHC was only realised a few years ago, and papers are still being produced at a great rate with new ideas about their possible character and fate. (Some papers suggest that a "remnant" will be left from the HR process. I guess that these are not thought to be potentially dangerous either, but the exact nature of such a particle has not been clearly explained in anything I have read);
c. Blodgett's questions are being asked by non physicists.
If any reader of this post has any contacts with physicists who are interested in addressing the issues Blodgett raises, please ask them to have a look at it for us. It's only the issue of the future of the earth at stake.
Update: in the interests of showing independence, I did not provide a copy of this to James Blodgett prior to posting. I have advised him of its existence, and invited him to comment if he thinks I have got any point wrong.
Also: only today I found this old thread on a physics forum site which contains posts by Blodgett and some responses he receives. They are well worth reading, especially the last one by him here.
Blodgett's point about the difficulty of trying to work out possible accretion scenarios when quantum gravity is not understood seems very valid. It is the apparent lack of response to these issues that worries me.
UPDATE SEPT 2008: I see that this post is still getting quite a bit of attention from people Googling for information now that the LHC is nearing operation.
Readers should be aware that I made many subsequent posts relevant to the topic after this one. As I don't tag my posts, the best way to find them is to go to the current page for my blog and use the search blog facility for "black holes".
The short story is that I had been somewhat relieved by the work published mid 2008 by Mangano that gave reasons why micro black holes could not be a danger. Then this month, I found that there was potentially a new reason to worry. The status of the Plaga suggestion of how Hawking Radiation itself might be a danger is unclear to me: Mangano says he makes a fundamental mistake, but I find it hard to follow.
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