Melting ice caps may trigger more volcanic eruptions
The story is about Iceland. The speculation is that decreasing ice cover there will let some of the volcanoes on the island become more active. (The decreasing weight pressure of the ice cap lets more magna get closer to the surface is the idea.)
This may also happen in other parts of the world, including Antarctica.
As one of the comments following the story notes, this could arguably be somewhat of a mixed blessing. Just the right amount of extra volcanic activity would increase aerosols in the atmosphere which has a cooling effect that can last for years. On the other hand, too much volcanism and you can kill most life on earth.
If Iceland is at risk, at least it means less fermented shark in the world. While I am not a huge fan of his, I recently saw chef Anthony Bourdain's "No Reservations" episode in which he travelled to Iceland and described the food as the worst he has ever experienced: especially the fermented shark. Bourdain cannot be accused of not being adventurous in what he will eat on his travels. If he says fermented shark is vile, I would really take his word for it.
Someone has put the show up on Youtube. You can see the segment with the vilest Icelandic food here:
Thursday, April 03, 2008
About the LHC
As I predicted, the great majority of commentary on the legal action concerning the Large Hadron Collider is snarky. Phil at Bad Astronomy, a prominient Skeptic, had an initial post which was fairly restrained, but then followed it with a post linking to others which definitely fall within the "snark" category. Daily Galaxy severely ridiculed the topic, but in the process misrepresented the case completely. Most of the "big" physics sites I visit regularly seem to have taken a view of "the less said the better". I suspect that they probably figure that the less publicity they to anything that could delay the start up, the better.
For a good natured humorous take on it, see Scott Adams' post about it at his Dilbert Blog.
One thing is perfectly clear: most of those who are ridiculing the issue, especially in comments sections, have not read the main websites which have been discussing the issue for the last couple of years.
As I said in my original post on this, I liked James Blodgett's work because he was willing to be shown that there clearly is no risk, taking into account all possibilities (including the failure of the never observed Hawking Radiation to actually exist.) It's true that very, very few physicists doubt Hawking Radiation, but a few reputable ones have speculated that maybe it doesn't. When the CERN risk assessment paper is based heavily on the assumption that it does exist, that's where a legitimate criticism lies.
Much is being made of the background of Walter Wagner, one of the litigants. To be honest, I have no idea about his general credibility; I note that he certainly does seem to have had a very varied career, and the fact that his website was inviting donations was always something that gave me some concern. However, in his posts on the web he generally has come across as pretty rational, and the ad hominem attacks do nothing to address the key issue.
In the New Scientist version of the story, the case is "complete nonsense" according to CERN spokesman James Gillies. He appears to be much more circumspect in the report of the New York Times. In fact, the NYT report emphasizes that CERN physicists have taken the question seriously, and have been looking at safety issues again since last year. One of the most curious parts of the report is that most of the members of the Safety Assessment Group are said to prefer to remain anonymous "for various reasons". I am curious as to why that would be. It doesn't fit entirely comfortably with their insistence that they are being completely open about all of the possibilities they are considering.
I expect that the revised safety assessment will still give the project a clean bill of health, and I hope it does it on the basis of a convincing explanation that under no foreseeable circumstances could thousands of non-evaporating mini black holes floating in and around the earth absorb atoms fast enough to ever be a problem.
I hope the strangelet issue can similarly be dealt with as well.
We will see.
For a good natured humorous take on it, see Scott Adams' post about it at his Dilbert Blog.
One thing is perfectly clear: most of those who are ridiculing the issue, especially in comments sections, have not read the main websites which have been discussing the issue for the last couple of years.
As I said in my original post on this, I liked James Blodgett's work because he was willing to be shown that there clearly is no risk, taking into account all possibilities (including the failure of the never observed Hawking Radiation to actually exist.) It's true that very, very few physicists doubt Hawking Radiation, but a few reputable ones have speculated that maybe it doesn't. When the CERN risk assessment paper is based heavily on the assumption that it does exist, that's where a legitimate criticism lies.
Much is being made of the background of Walter Wagner, one of the litigants. To be honest, I have no idea about his general credibility; I note that he certainly does seem to have had a very varied career, and the fact that his website was inviting donations was always something that gave me some concern. However, in his posts on the web he generally has come across as pretty rational, and the ad hominem attacks do nothing to address the key issue.
In the New Scientist version of the story, the case is "complete nonsense" according to CERN spokesman James Gillies. He appears to be much more circumspect in the report of the New York Times. In fact, the NYT report emphasizes that CERN physicists have taken the question seriously, and have been looking at safety issues again since last year. One of the most curious parts of the report is that most of the members of the Safety Assessment Group are said to prefer to remain anonymous "for various reasons". I am curious as to why that would be. It doesn't fit entirely comfortably with their insistence that they are being completely open about all of the possibilities they are considering.
I expect that the revised safety assessment will still give the project a clean bill of health, and I hope it does it on the basis of a convincing explanation that under no foreseeable circumstances could thousands of non-evaporating mini black holes floating in and around the earth absorb atoms fast enough to ever be a problem.
I hope the strangelet issue can similarly be dealt with as well.
We will see.
As I suspected...
Climate challenge underestimated? : Nature News
This looks like a really important story on the economics of climate change. My suspicion has long been that the optimistic talk of countries being able to achieve huge changes in CO2 emissions with lots of "green" technologies and without too much economic pain was bunkum, and this report indicates my hunch may be right:
This looks like a really important story on the economics of climate change. My suspicion has long been that the optimistic talk of countries being able to achieve huge changes in CO2 emissions with lots of "green" technologies and without too much economic pain was bunkum, and this report indicates my hunch may be right:
I trust Professor Garnaut is reading this with interest.Climate policy expert Roger Pielke Jr, climatologist Tom Wigley, and economist Christopher Green lay out in a commentary article published in Nature 1 today why they think that the emission scenarios the IPCC produced nearly a decade ago, which are still widely used, are overly optimistic. They note that most of the IPCC’s 'business as usual' emission scenarios assume a certain amount of 'spontaneous' technological change. The size of this assumed change is unrealistic, they argue, and deceives policy-makers and the public about the crucial role policy must have in encouraging the development of technologies to prevent dangerous climate change.
Such a large chunk of the needed energy-efficiency improvements is built in to these 'business as usual' scenarios that the degree of change requiring special effort seems artificially small, they argue. According to the authors' own calculations, IPCC scenarios make it seem as if the technical challenge of stabilizing greenhouse-gas emissions at around 500 parts per million — a concentration which scientists think will prevent average global temperatures from rising more than 2 °C — is a quarter of its true size.
Richard Tol, an energy and environmental economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin, Ireland, also says that the IPCC has underestimated the cost of technology, and notes that the cost of mitigating against climate change increases as time goes on. If Pielke and colleagues are correct, the cost of controlling global warming could go up by a factor of 16, argues Tol.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
A laugh a minute in Iraq
In Baghdad, Iraqis take their humor extra dark - International Herald Tribune
According to this story, Iraqis still enjoy a good April Fool's joke, but in current circumstances, most of the jokes are very black. For example:
According to this story, Iraqis still enjoy a good April Fool's joke, but in current circumstances, most of the jokes are very black. For example:
Actually, all of the jokes in the article just don't sound funny, which makes for a curious read.Rawaa, 25, a manager's assistant, said that in 2004, when she was in college, a student persuaded the class on April Fools' Day that the poetry professor — a man they all disliked — had been assassinated.
"We felt sorry about him, but very happy at the same time, because there will be no more poetry lectures that day," Rawaa said. She would allow only her first name to be used, afraid of falling victim to the real violence in the capital, anything but a joke.
Oh great...
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | N Korea hits out at South leader
You can see more of the North's rant at the North Korean news agency here.
Meanwhile in China, they are probably tearing their hair out at the prospect of some sort of North Korean issue interfering with the Olympic Games.
You can see more of the North's rant at the North Korean news agency here.
Meanwhile in China, they are probably tearing their hair out at the prospect of some sort of North Korean issue interfering with the Olympic Games.
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Assud the Rabbit and the future of the Middle East
Hamas's harsh rhetoric against the Jews - International Herald Tribune
As this article notes, the outright incitement of young Palestinians against Jews is one of the biggest problems for finding a long term peace solution in the Middle East.
When you have prominent political parties (Hamas) still quoting the Protocols of the Elders of Zion as true, there is very little hope for the future. Not to mention Imams who like to sermonise that the Jews are doomed because of what the Koran says.
Assud the Rabbit, by the way, replaced Nahoul the bee, and vows "to get rid of the Jews, Allah willing."
God help us.
And how about a bit of concentration on this brainwashing as a problem from the likes of Ant Loewenstein? I note he says of the short film Fitna: "it’s vital to understand that this virulent strain of Islam-hatred is alive and well in the West."
Funny, Antony, how it is not being broadcast on local Israel TV to influence the kids. I reckon children's shows designed to instil hatred from an early age are more harmful, even if they don't show dead bodies, than a short bloody film on the internet which can actually be the subject of serious discussion by adults.
Robert Spencer's take on it is well worth reading by the way.
As this article notes, the outright incitement of young Palestinians against Jews is one of the biggest problems for finding a long term peace solution in the Middle East.
When you have prominent political parties (Hamas) still quoting the Protocols of the Elders of Zion as true, there is very little hope for the future. Not to mention Imams who like to sermonise that the Jews are doomed because of what the Koran says.
Assud the Rabbit, by the way, replaced Nahoul the bee, and vows "to get rid of the Jews, Allah willing."
God help us.
And how about a bit of concentration on this brainwashing as a problem from the likes of Ant Loewenstein? I note he says of the short film Fitna: "it’s vital to understand that this virulent strain of Islam-hatred is alive and well in the West."
Funny, Antony, how it is not being broadcast on local Israel TV to influence the kids. I reckon children's shows designed to instil hatred from an early age are more harmful, even if they don't show dead bodies, than a short bloody film on the internet which can actually be the subject of serious discussion by adults.
Robert Spencer's take on it is well worth reading by the way.
The Nazi children
Paddy Hitler, Max Mosley and the dilemma of Nazi children
This is a fascinating summary of what various "Nazi children" went on to do with their lives.
Under the entry for Paddy Hitler, you should follow the link to a story from the Times in December which I had missed. Wikipedia has an entry on him too. His story had until now escaped my attention.
(By the way, the Wikipedia entry notes that there have been a couple of fictional works in which Adolf travels to Liverpool to visit his nephew. What a neat idea for a movie.)
This is a fascinating summary of what various "Nazi children" went on to do with their lives.
Under the entry for Paddy Hitler, you should follow the link to a story from the Times in December which I had missed. Wikipedia has an entry on him too. His story had until now escaped my attention.
(By the way, the Wikipedia entry notes that there have been a couple of fictional works in which Adolf travels to Liverpool to visit his nephew. What a neat idea for a movie.)
Monday, March 31, 2008
More curious Indian journalism
Mall mania grips city-Patna-Cities-The Times of India
Maybe I am just easily amused, but here's the introductory paragraph from the above story:
Maybe I am just easily amused, but here's the introductory paragraph from the above story:
Built over the ruins of ancient Pataliputra, the age-old bazaars of modern Patna betray a flavour of yesteryear in its din and bustle, the bellowing of beasts, the salty language of traders and cattlemen and their shocking racy stories.I am very curious as to the nature of the "shocking racy stories" that Indian cattleman tell at the market. Is it about what their cows got up to last night?
A comparison of interest to few readers
Inside the mind of the Archbishop of Canterbury David Bentley Hart TLS
This is a review of a collection of theological essays by the Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams.
The reviewer notes that the Archbishop is undoubtedly smart: he apparently can read 7 languages other than English, and lecture in five. He has an impressively large bibliography, including 3 books of poetry.
Still, it is a common criticism that his use of language is simply too opaque to understand his actual position.
The point of this post is simply to note that it occurred to me that he is the Barry Jones of the ecclesiastic world: both highly intelligent and well intentioned, but their verbosity and circuitous approach to topics makes people actually avoid trying to understand them.
This is a review of a collection of theological essays by the Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams.
The reviewer notes that the Archbishop is undoubtedly smart: he apparently can read 7 languages other than English, and lecture in five. He has an impressively large bibliography, including 3 books of poetry.
Still, it is a common criticism that his use of language is simply too opaque to understand his actual position.
The point of this post is simply to note that it occurred to me that he is the Barry Jones of the ecclesiastic world: both highly intelligent and well intentioned, but their verbosity and circuitous approach to topics makes people actually avoid trying to understand them.
Even the Arabs don't like Syria
BBC NEWS | Middle East | No Lebanon breakthrough for Arabs
It's hard to keep up with all the convoluted politics of the Middle East, but this short report is worth noting.
It's hard to keep up with all the convoluted politics of the Middle East, but this short report is worth noting.
Funny money
Windfall that wasn't | The Australian
Glenn Milne explains how reports about an extra $1 billion to be paid to Victoria were never true, and the Rudd government did not seek to clarify the misreporting.
This also reminds me, when it was first announced by John Howard, there was some criticism from those on the Left that it was all a rushed and ill-considered program. Funny how that has all dropped away now that it is a Labor deal.
Glenn Milne explains how reports about an extra $1 billion to be paid to Victoria were never true, and the Rudd government did not seek to clarify the misreporting.
This also reminds me, when it was first announced by John Howard, there was some criticism from those on the Left that it was all a rushed and ill-considered program. Funny how that has all dropped away now that it is a Labor deal.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Things you didn't know about Julie Andrews
The actress Julie Andrews looks back on a rough childhood - International Herald Tribune
I like this section from the above review of Julie Andrew's autobiography:
I like this section from the above review of Julie Andrew's autobiography:
The story starts in Walton-on-Thames, a village in the south of England, where she grew up. Her great-grandmother was a servant, her great-grandfather a gardener, and both grandparents on her mother's side died of syphilis, the only response to which is: blimey, they didn't put that in the press release for "Mary Poppins." (The book's tone addresses precisely this kind of joke and seems to implore, with weary finality, Enough already.)
In other movie news....
The pleasures of bad reviews are many, and sadly I had missed the outstanding collection of reviews that Paris Hilton's latest movie "The Hottie and the Nottie" garnered in February this year. (It only came to my attention now due to a brief recent mention in The Observer, where the reviewer noted "There is nothing to commend this disastrous film and not even a herd of wild horses, each laden with a Gucci saddlebag packed with doubloons, could induce me to see it again.")
Thinking I could find better bad reviews, I headed over to Rottentomatoes, where the film managed to get a 5% positive reading. However, it appears to be a real challenge to those trying to describe its awfulness. For example, (all of these taken from Rottentomatoes):
"It is excruciatingly, painfully, horribly, terribly awful." (Clear message, but lacks creativity.)
"Imagine the worst movie you've ever seen. Got it? Now try to think of something worse. That something is this movie -- wretched, embarrassing and a waste of the time and energy of everyone involved." (Slightly better.)
"I would like to tell you this gross-out-on-camera is every bit as bad as its title implies, but that would not be entirely true. It is much, much worse." (See what I mean; its awfulness seems to have transcended creative description.)
Just so you know what the plot is about, back to Mr French in The Observer:
Thinking I could find better bad reviews, I headed over to Rottentomatoes, where the film managed to get a 5% positive reading. However, it appears to be a real challenge to those trying to describe its awfulness. For example, (all of these taken from Rottentomatoes):
"It is excruciatingly, painfully, horribly, terribly awful." (Clear message, but lacks creativity.)
"Imagine the worst movie you've ever seen. Got it? Now try to think of something worse. That something is this movie -- wretched, embarrassing and a waste of the time and energy of everyone involved." (Slightly better.)
"I would like to tell you this gross-out-on-camera is every bit as bad as its title implies, but that would not be entirely true. It is much, much worse." (See what I mean; its awfulness seems to have transcended creative description.)
Just so you know what the plot is about, back to Mr French in The Observer:
The Hottie & the Nottie, produced by the vacuous, self-adoring socialite Paris Hilton and starring herself as the most beautiful, sought-after girl in Los Angeles. Paris is Cristabel Abbott, 'the hottie', who thinks that 'a life without orgasms would be like a world without flowers'. But would-be suitors can only approach her via her ugly, pustule-encrusted best friend, 'the nottie', who naturally ends up having a spectacular makeover.Nearly every reviewer finds the film's message to be stunningly anti-feminist, and some note that it's a full length ad for the cosmetic surgery industry. As a way of summarising the anti-women aspects, I reckon the wittiest quote on Rottentomatoes goes to Suzanne Condie Lambert of the Arizona Republic:
'This movie hates women' is written over and over in my notebook, but that's not quite fair. This movie hates unattractive women.Congratulations, Suzanne!
Kung Fu Kid
Continuing the current run here of videos and doodles, The Japan Times gives a new kids' movie a good review, and the trailer is up on Youtube. Looks fun to me; lucky I have the kids to see it with:
Kevin loves attention
G'day Kev, it's Russ - Opinion - theage.com.au
Just as you might expect, our PM is readily impressed when a celebrity wants to talk to him. Jason Koutsoukis is taking another job soon, which may be the reason he feels free to detail this rather embarrassing Rudd story. Go read it and cringe.
Just as you might expect, our PM is readily impressed when a celebrity wants to talk to him. Jason Koutsoukis is taking another job soon, which may be the reason he feels free to detail this rather embarrassing Rudd story. Go read it and cringe.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Black hole issue gets attention
Try this headline: Black Hole Eats Earth - International Herald Tribune
Well, what do you know. The New York Times (and IHT) give the issue of whether there is any potential danger from mini black holes that may be created at the LHC a respectful treatment.
This is, I expect, going to upset some of the science bloggers, when they get around to noticing.
The most interesting thing about the article is that it does confirm that there is a third "anonymous" safety review which is due to report soon. It was due to report earlier this year but seems to have been a bit delayed.
I would like to think that this shows that it is an issue that is being taken seriously, and hence it was reasonable for me to do likewise.
There has not been much around on Arxiv for quite a few months now that seems directly relevant to this issue. However, there was a somewhat useful answer to a question I asked given by Bee (physicist Sabine Hossenfelder) at her very worthwhile Backreaction blog. The comment is in the thread here, and is marked as being posted on March 11 at 10.32am. I don't think I can link to it directly.
While she clearly believes that Hawking Radiation is the answer (as indeed does virtually every other physicist), she does make the interesting point at the end as follows:
Well, what do you know. The New York Times (and IHT) give the issue of whether there is any potential danger from mini black holes that may be created at the LHC a respectful treatment.
This is, I expect, going to upset some of the science bloggers, when they get around to noticing.
The most interesting thing about the article is that it does confirm that there is a third "anonymous" safety review which is due to report soon. It was due to report earlier this year but seems to have been a bit delayed.
I would like to think that this shows that it is an issue that is being taken seriously, and hence it was reasonable for me to do likewise.
There has not been much around on Arxiv for quite a few months now that seems directly relevant to this issue. However, there was a somewhat useful answer to a question I asked given by Bee (physicist Sabine Hossenfelder) at her very worthwhile Backreaction blog. The comment is in the thread here, and is marked as being posted on March 11 at 10.32am. I don't think I can link to it directly.
While she clearly believes that Hawking Radiation is the answer (as indeed does virtually every other physicist), she does make the interesting point at the end as follows:
Besides this, I find it kind of funny that I occasionally come across this idea that these micro-black holes would 'sink' into the earth and collect at the earth's center. That most definitely wouldn't be the case - they would just go through and leave on the other side, even if 'slowly moving' or 'falling'. Why would they stop in the center of the earth?Interesting point, as I had assumed they would end up there.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Peter Godwin on Zimbabwe
From prosperity to failed state: how one man destroyed a nation - Opinion
I mention this article, which is an good read in its own right, mainly because I want to recommend (what I think was) a "Conversation Hour" interview with Peter Godwin I heard earlier this week. However, there is no podcast of the interview on the ABC yet. Maybe it will up soon at that link.
However, there is a transcript of a Ramona Koval interview here.
He has a very interesting family story.
I mention this article, which is an good read in its own right, mainly because I want to recommend (what I think was) a "Conversation Hour" interview with Peter Godwin I heard earlier this week. However, there is no podcast of the interview on the ABC yet. Maybe it will up soon at that link.
However, there is a transcript of a Ramona Koval interview here.
He has a very interesting family story.
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