Why not to love the (Iranian) bomb

Debunking the nutty theory that Iranian nukes are a good thing. - By Fred Kaplan - Slate Magazine

Pretty good article here debunking some of the recent opinion pieces that suggest Iran having the bomb might be a good thing regionally.

I'm not sure that Kaplan's optimism about how much time is left is right, though.

How Kevin lost his mojo

I won't bother providing links to support my claims in this post, but here goes.

It seems that many people sense a sudden turnaround in the image and political fortunes of one Kevin Michael Rudd. It's not just News Limited journalists either, whose changes of tune often seem strangely uniform after hints appear from the lips of the boss, but commentators such as Michelle Grattan, Bernard Keane, and even the folks at the lefty blog Larvatus Prodeo.

The climate change skeptics of the media and blogosphere think that Tony Abbott's ascension to being Leader of the Opposition is the explanation. But that seems far too simple and easy to me. I admit I pretty much despise Abbott for the opportunistic way he trashed climate change policy he previously supported to grab the leadership, but I still feel that Rudd's sudden tarnished image is more one of his own making than as a result of change of leadership. Here's my list of what's gone wrong for him:

1. Copenhagen: Rudd expected to be welcomed as a hero and to have an important role in negotiations. He took an enormous delegation with him to cheer just in case the leaders of 90% of the rest of the world said "who's he?" Instead, the conference showed all the dangers of any process organised by the UN, being hijacked by a bunch of mismanaged countries more interested in shaking down the West than talking about emissions, and one big powerful country (China) playing a spoiler role because it can.

So, it turned into a PR liability very quickly.

I did not expect it to go so badly either, but it was Rudd who put a lot of political eggs in the basket on this one.

2. He took a holiday. For once, Kevin stopped appearing on TV for a few weeks in January. He gave clear air for Abbott to turn up on whatever TV or radio appearance he wanted, with little government response following. If this was a deliberate tactic, it didn't work. Even though there was nothing significant policy-wise said in this period, all these "action" shots of (Tony in his speedos, Tony in his lycra cycling gear), at least give people the impression that he might be someone who can get things done. Which leads to the next point:

3. A sudden realisation that Rudd hasn't got all that much done. It seems to have taken a hell of a long time for the polls to reflect a cynicism in the public that Rudd is all waffling talk and light on the ground on actual results, but it finally seems to have kicked in.

Maybe it's the realisation that we're close to an election and (amongst other things) few students have got their free laptop; aboriginal housing is being fixed at a glacial pace and at huge cost; nothing obvious has changed in the State hospital system and any Federal 'takeover' is receding into the distance; even industrial relations changes seem to have taken a long time to become fully effective.

4. Now that Rudd has started to appear in the media again, he is doing it in a Presidential style which serves to highlight his deficiencies as a speaker and advocate. His weekly sessions on Sunrise to answer viewer questions is an appallingly dull format, and I don't understand why his media advisers (and the shows producers) haven't changed it completely already. (I missed it this morning, but could hear it in the background and suspect it may have tweaked already.)

I missed his "Q&A" show, but take it that it didn't go over so well. And when will some adviser be brave enough to tell him "Kevin, you simply have to stop with the 'and you know what'?" and his other rhetorical cliches which people are well and truly sick of.

Oddly, from what I see of his parliamentary performance, he's actually still looking confident there, but this counts for little just at the moment.

5. He never was very likeable but people seemed to give him the benefit of the doubt. That attitude is drying up fast.

Consumer revolt

The Cost of an E-Book Will Be Going Up - NYTimes.com

It does seem odd that, just at a time there is an expectation that e-book readers are really going to take off, the cost of e-books is expected to go up. But as noted, this is meeting stiff consumer resistance in the States.

Meanwhile, it would be good to be able to get more than just a Kindle in this country. Grr.

Fun reading ahead

Psychiatry's draft new 'bible' goes online - health - 10 February 2010 - New Scientist

It seems the draft new version of the DSM-V, the bible of mental health diagnosis, is now available on line.

Lots of potential fun there is trying to pin down what exactly is wrong with some of my fellow bloggers. :)

Legs astride the barbed wire fence

Rowan's apology falls short

I see that the Archbishop of Canterbury continues to try to do the impossible task of keeping the Church of England from splintering over sexuality, saying he's sorry to gays and lesbians if they feel he hasn't done enough for their recognition, while telling them they should still wait.

What a hopeless task.

Quite beautiful

Have a look at this mesmerising 4 minute film. (Watch it in full screen is best.)

The "making of" video shows how it is largely a digital construct, pretty much like Skycaptain and the World of Tomorrow, which was very much underappreciated.

Something to watch out for

The Ghostman of Skye | Ghostwatch | Fortean Times

True life ghost stories told by sincere sounding people can be both intriguing and entertaining, but as this review of a recent BBC documentary notes, television's treatment of this topic in the last few years has been dominated by appallingly silly ' psychic ghosthunter' style programs which no sensible person can watch.

But I'll have to look out for this doco. Some of the spooky stories are described as follows:

Among the most remarkable accounts were sightings of a ghost car on the Portree to Sligachan road, which have caused something of a sensation on the island. One driver described how he had pulled in twice to avoid what he believed was a real vehicle approaching, only to see the headlights mysteriously vanish. On a third encounter, he instead drove boldly towards the headlights, much to the discomfort of passengers in the car, only to find the lights unaccountably vanishing once again. An elderly ex-policeman told of seeing a headless lady in green; where the head should have been it was “vacant, missing”. Other stories told of strange lights associated with road accidents and drownings, which were seen as omens.

A phantom child, five or six years old, was seen by two men out walking. The vision occurred about an hour and half before the discovery of a body of a child who had drowned in a loch, and for whom neighbours were searching that night. An account from a John McGillivray told of a light seen climbing up from the shore and moving up the hill. This was reportedly seen at a spot where a body was later discovered, with the light moving along the track where the body was later carried to the nearest graveyard.

Not encouraging

Climate 'Tipping Points' May Arrive Without Warning, Says Top Forecaster

"Many scientists are looking for the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in hopes of forestalling those changes, or improving our preparations for them," said UC Davis theoretical ecologist Alan Hastings. "Our new study found, unfortunately, that regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without warning -- systems can 'tip' precipitously.

"This means that some effects of global climate change on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic. By that point returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible."....

Among the tipping points Holdren listed were: the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in summer, leading to drastic changes in ocean circulation and climate patterns across the whole Northern Hemisphere; acceleration of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, driving rates of sea-level increase to 6 feet or more per century; and ocean acidification from carbon dioxide absorption, causing massive disruption in ocean food webs.

Coming soon

What the LHC could find at half-power - New Scientist

There's no mention in this short note as to whether half power is enough for mini black holes. The answer will be somewhere on the internet.

Missing Annabel

I had been wondering why Annabel Crabb, my favourite political commentator of late, had gone to the ABC then promptly disappeared. The Australian has the answer, when Caroline Overington wrote about Insiders:

It will be a different kind of show this year, since the sharpest wit, Annabel Crabb, last week gave birth to a son, Elliott James, who is now undergoing 24-hour worship with his happy mum at home.

Betty still busy

This was one of the superbowl ads, and features Betty White, who I've always found funny:



She's 88 years old (!) and as sharp as a tack. You have to admire her.

Technical problem in the sky

Burj Khalifa observation deck incident is minor case, says official

The mystery reason as to why the Burj Khalifa 124th floor observation deck was suddenly closed is given some more background:

Michael Timms, a 31-year-old telecommunications engineer from the US, said: "I was walking around the observation deck when I heard this really loud noise and what looked like smoke or dust coming out from one of the elevator doors. There were at least 60 people on the deck at the time. Employees and security staff were telling people that everything was ok. But once it became clear we were not being allowed back down, some people got really angry while others started crying."

Timms added: "Civil Defence, paramedics and the police all arrived on the scene. One of the elevators had not reached all the way to the 124th floor and I saw some people climbing a ladder from the elevator up on to the observation deck." Timms said they were given an offer to return for free.

The elevators seem a bit problematic:

Fourteen people were also trapped in one of the Burj Khalifa's elevators for over an hour last month.

He should've travelled via robot camel

gulfnews : Dubai's Arabic-speaking robot takes a flight to Riyadh

A bit of silly stuff here about a robot taking a plane trip. I hope security gave him a thorough body cavity search first:

A first for Emirates, Ibn Sina, one of the world's most advanced robots, travelled as a First Class passenger on the flight accompanied by Dr Nikolaos Mavridis, Assistant Professor of Computer Science at the UAE University College of Information Technology in Al Ain where the machine was developed, along with two of his assistants.

Able to verbally interact with people, Ibn Sina stunned fellow passengers as he was checked in at Emirates' dedicated First Class check-in counter and relaxed in Emirates' First Class lounge prior to boarding his flight.

More justification for my ETS cynicism

David Prosser: Carbon prices are going the wrong way - The Independent

Right now, the carbon price is heading in the wrong direction. The House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee said yesterday that £88 per tonne was the lowest price necessary for investment in green technologies to become economic. In the EU scheme, the price for the right to emit one tonne of carbon dioxide is currently £13, having fallen back from closer to £20 since the middle of last year.

There have been two reasons for this decline. First, the free emissions allowances for the scheme were set prior to the recession: in a slowdown, emissions fall, so there has been less demand for additional allowances than was anticipated. And second, with the failure in Copenhagen to secure an international agreement on emission reductions, one crutch for the carbon price – that fewer free allowances might soon be available – was kicked away.

One of the few positive effects of the global recession has been lower-than-expected emissions. But the gain from that benefit will be more than wiped out by higher future emissions if the result is that the low carbon price makes it impossible for private-sector organisations to justify committing themselves to investing the huge sums necessary to build renewable energy plants with scale, or nuclear facilities.

When will the simpler idea of fixing a price on carbon via a tax so as to give investment greater certainty going to start getting more political support?

Growth area

South Brisbane And West End Population To Increase Three-fold

Over the last year I've spent quite a lot of time at West End and South Brisbane on Saturday afternoons while the kids attend a local class.

West End to me still has too much of the seedy feel that New Farm used to have (until the large number of boarding houses started closing down.) It seems pretty rare to walk down the main shopping street without seeing some drunk (or possibly drug addled or otherwise mentally disturbed) person on a bus bench or elsewhere. There are a large number of the artistically inclined living in the area, but I am not sure that modern artists necessarily make the best neighbours. The little enclave on the main street that is left as a aboriginal meeting place just serves to remind people of the seemingly listless and alcohol centred life of a large number of the urban aboriginal residents.

Still, I can see that it could have a bright future with more and more redevelopment of what is currently industrial land.

Must praise Malcolm

ABC The Drum Unleashed - Turnbull: why I will vote for Rudd's CPRS

I can't let Malcolm Turnbull's speech go without comment.

Even though I have always been cynical about emissions trading schemes, and doubt that they will work as well as economists like to think they could, Malcolm Turbull's speech yesterday was the best presented and most logically argued justification for an ETS for Australia that I have ever heard.

But of course, logic and reason (and principled stands on issues) don't count for much in politics. You have to take into account "the vibe", and with lots of TV images of lots of snow in America and Europe, and a lot of poorly understood reports on "Climategate", public opinion is swinging away from taking any serious action on CO2 emissions for the moment. There is still a majority supporting action, but the skeptics/disbelievers/deniers (there is no good term for them collectively) are feeling very buoyed at the moment.

The public is fickle on this topic, which is an inherently hard one to explain. (By that I mean not only emissions trading schemes, but climate change science itself is not "intuitive".) That the Right is increasingly identified itself with those who disbelieve a consensus view of science is a major tragedy.

To revive political will on the subject, we actually have to hope that 2010 is demonstrably a hot year globally, and the early indications are that this may turn out to be true.

As for convincing people that ocean acidification is a major issue: I don't know how you do that when it'll be a while yet before clear evidence of its effects on the ocean ecosystem can be irrefutable. It is clear that ocean pH is lowering, but will it take proof of the population of some sea creature falling as a result to overcome ignorance based skepticism of the topic? But then again, how did scientists manage to convince governments that the ozone hole depletion was a major issue before they could show ecological effects actually happening? Maybe that example of science successfully convincing the public of a need for action is reason to not be completely pessimistic.

An identity issue, continued

Yesterday while looking for something else, I found this post from 2007 which I had half forgotten about. (As with many of my half remembered stuff, I am often surprised how good some of my old posts are. Sorry, I may well suffer from too much self-regard!) It was on the topic of teenagers and the current Western cultural ideas about sexual orientation/identity. The issue was revisited in this post last year.

The short version is that the modern idea of the importance of identifying sexual orientation and "being true" to it may in fact be unhelpful to teenagers with uncertain or malleable sexual feelings by placing them under greater pressure to try to identity (and acknowledge) a sexual category at ever younger ages.

Anyway, today I find this item, which is very relevant to the topic:

Mental health professionals have long-known that gay, lesbian and bisexual (GLB) teens face significantly elevated risks of mental health problems, including suicidal thoughts and suicidal attempts. However, a group of McGill University researchers in Montreal has now come to the conclusion that self-identity is the crucial risk-factor, rather than actual sexual behaviours. Their results were published in February in the Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry.

The researchers administered a detailed, anonymous questionnaire to nearly 1,900 students in 14 Montreal-area high schools, and found that those teens who self-identified as gay, lesbian or bisexual, or who were unsure of their sexual identity, were indeed at higher risk for suicidal ideation and attempts. However, teens who had same-sex attractions or sexual experiences – but thought of themselves as heterosexual – were at no greater risk than the population at large. Perhaps surprisingly, but consistent with previous studies, the majority of teens with same-sex sexual attraction or experience considered themselves to be heterosexual....

"It's important to realize that a large proportion of people who have sex with or are attracted to people of the same sex do not identify themselves as gay, lesbian or bisexual. They consider themselves heterosexual." added co-author Dr. Richard Montoro of the McGill University Health Centre (MUHC). "Those students were not at all at risk of worse mental health outcomes."

"The main message is that it's the interface between individuals and society that causes students who identify as gay, lesbian, or bisexual the most distress," said study first author Yue Zhao, a McGill University graduate student working with Dr. Thombs.. "Sexual orientation has three different components. The first is identity, which is dependent on the society in which one lives; the second is attraction or fantasy; and the third is behaviour. Previous studies have not addressed which of those components may explain why GLB youth are at risk."

Well, there might be more than one way of looking at this, but I think it's not unreasonable for me to say it supports my position that any sex education (or school based gay support groups as are increasingly popular in America) which tend to encourage teenagers to self identify as gay at too young an age is not a good idea. It may do more harm than good.

I have no issue with schools taking strong action on bullying of anyone, whether its on the basis of perceived sexual orientation or not. But bullying is wrong because it is wrong, and you don't need to further emphasise the importance of sexual self identity to respond to it.

Must be time for another post about Japanese toilets

Caring about toilet noise: from feudal-era urn to 21st century gadget

This article suggests that Japanese sensitivity about the sounds people make when using a toilet has a long history. You've probably heard before:

most ladies’ rooms in the country’s department stores and office buildings are equipped with a device commonly known as ‘‘Otohime’’—originally the brand name of a product developed by Toto Ltd—which emits the simulated sound of a toilet flushing.

The rest of the article contains some phrases that you are unlikely to hear again. Ever. I'll put them in bold:

Shigenori Yamaji, an expert on toilet culture and researcher at Osaka University of Tourism’s Institute of Tourism Studies, agreed that being embarrassed by the thought of other people hearing such sounds in the lavatory seems peculiar to Japan.

According to Yamaji, this particular sensibility can be traced back to at least the 19th century, a time of feudalism in Japan, as the residence of a wealthy family in Yakage that also served as a designated inn for dignitaries was equipped with an urn traditionally called ‘‘Otokeshi-no Tsubo’’ (Urn for Covering the Sound).

The urn, now kept in storage at Yakage Folk Museum and expected to be put on display there in the near future, has a water outlet in the shape of a dragon. A curator said the urn was originally placed on a platform near the restroom, which was exclusively for the high-ranking guests of the inn and not for family members or servants.

When a guest wanted to use the room, it is thought that his attendant would be standing by to lift the plug on the urn and let the water out from the dragon’s mouth to cover the sound of the nobleman urinating, Yamaji said...

But some are critical of the custom. ‘‘I think the Japanese sometimes read too much between the lines,’’ said a housewife in her 30s in Chiba Prefecture.

‘‘My own excretory sounds never make me embarrassed. It’s much more embarrassing to put on makeup on the train,’’ said a dance instructor in her 50s in the same prefecture.

Amusing snark

“Edge of Darkness” and “The Red Shoes,” review : The New Yorker

Anthony Lane writes in his review of the new Mel Gibson movie "Edge of Darkness":

Mel Gibson, who looks and sounds not a day over sixty-five*, plays a policeman named Thomas Craven. ...

He wears a loose-fitting suit that he might have picked up at a morgue. “I’m the guy with nothing to lose who doesn’t give a shit,” he says. You’re telling me.

* He has, even I am surprised to learn, only just turned 54. Must be all that church going. Or the drinking and womanising. One or the other.

Something you didn't know about the LHC

Backreaction: The LHC Proton Source

A brief but surprising bit of information about the LHC at this post.