Preparing for the worst

What happened when I had a heart attack | Andrew Brown | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

The variety of ways the pain and discomfort of a heart attack can manifest itself is a somewhat interesting topic:  especially to a person like me who gets nearly no exercise and sits all day, which the doctors like to tell us is a bad thing.  So reading Brown's well written description about what his heart attack felt like serves a useful cautionary purpose.

Getting up earlier and going for a walk ever second day would be even better, I suppose.  (On the other hand, Brown did start his heart attack while cycling.   If this is something he does regularly, maybe he thought he was too fit to be having such a problem.  See, this is one good thing about not exercising -  I will be under no such illusion if crushing pain starts anywhere near  my torso.) 

Must get those long delayed blood tests too ...

Socks in space

Design for a long duration, deep space mission habitat

I like the way this article starts:

There are all sorts of details to take into consideration when traveling in deep space, such as where to go, what to do, and how to get back. Since starry-eyed dreamers often don’t take into account the practical realities of putting a human into such an environment, steely-eyed engineers are left to decide the gritty details of such a mission, such as how many pairs of socks are needed.

Well, it's good to see that NASA is putting serious work into how much sock drawer room is needed in space.  (That sounds sarcastic, but it's not really meant to be.   I would love to have my childhood doodling of spaceship designs as a real job.)

Anyway, NASA is coming up with estimates for spaceship size for long missions (this one to an asteroid.)  Apart from the summary at the link, you can see the whole paper here.   This is what they think a deep space mission may look like:




















And here's the inside:






Those ceilings look very low and claustrophobic; but then again, I suppose in weightlessness you're  not standing up often.

This also gives me the opportunity to again note that, as anyone who has ever stayed at a cheap Japanese hotel and been in one of their ultra compact bathrooms would know, the nation with the most Earth based experience for long distance space travel is clearly the Japanese.  They have space underwear too.   (Search my blog at the side if you are interested.)

A bunch of dates

gulfnews : Liwa Date Festival begins

It can be argued that the Liwa Date Festival is one of the truest experiences of all things date-related and the Emirati culture as a whole.

 It kind of makes me miss the days of HG & Roy on ZZZ.   (For Australian readers only.)

The NH cooling trend is not new...Grrr

I just Googled "long term cooling trend" and saw that many media and blog commentary about the Esper tree proxy study have headings like this:   "New Tree Ring Study Shows 2000 years of COOLING on Earth".  Obviously, they think that the existence of some long term cooling is a new finding.

This just shows how easily people are misled.

As this Skeptical Science post (last updated in 2010) shows via a few graphs - knowledge of a long term cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere (up to last century) is nothing new.

The point is also made in the Real Climate commentary on the Esper paper.  The Esper cooling trend, based on its Lapland trees, is just a bit higher than other proxy studies conclude.

This really is frustrating.

A wetter world? [Continued]

11 dead, 18 missing in record deluge | The Japan Times Online

Eleven people were killed, at least 18 others were missing and tens of thousands were ordered evacuated Thursday as downpours lashed Kyushu and other areas in the southwest, police and firefighters said.

The Meteorological Agency said rainfall in parts of Kumamoto and Oita prefectures reached levels that have "never been experienced before."

The agency meanwhile forecast heavy rain and landslides in other areas of Japan, including the west and northeast.

 The photos of the damage at this site show it to be quite severe.

A bunch of hypocritical twits

Over at Catallaxy, I see that Sinclair Davidson's tedious "broken promise" campaign entry for day 13 of carbon pricing put up a video of David Murray (an ex banker who headed our Future Fund) criticising the policy as bad economically.   Never mind that he (Murray) has long said he doesn't even believe CO2 can cause AGW.  That wouldn't make his views on the economic effects of the policy suspect now, would it?  Wayne Swan appears on the video making this point, and ABC host Emma is the other person who makes an appearance.

Anyway, in the comments following, in the middle of the night, we get this contribution from mareeS:



Last I looked, there were about 16 or so comments after Maree's, by Catallaxy regulars, none of whom make any comment about her contribution.

For a group of people who scoff at the idea that climate scientists have been at the receiving end of torrid and disgusting email campaigns  from skeptics who wish them dead, and quite a few of whom have spent time this week talking about how they wouldn't be surprised if  Gillard suspended the next election due to some drummed up, climate change related "state of emergency", they are a really a bunch of unselfaware and stupid people.

Public confusion via press release

As soon as I read the comments by Jan Esper last week on his team's Lapland tree study I knew that  climate change "skeptics" would exaggerate its significance.   The study indicates a long term cooling trend greater than previously expected, and that the previous warm periods of the last couple of thousand years were a bit warmer than earlier estimates.

That's quite a lot to get from one set of trees in one tiny part of the Northern Hemisphere, I thought.

True to form, climate change skeptics who only get their information from Watts Up With That were thrilled with the paper.  Strangely, it has only turned up on Tim Blair's site in Australia, not Andrew Bolt's yet, but give it another day.

You can bet your last dollar that no more than a few percent of those who note this would read the commentary on the paper at Real Climate, which deals with it as scientists in the field would - pointing out some of its strengths, but also its weakenesses and the reasons to be somewhat cautious about its authors' broader suggestions about the significance of their study.  Here's the important section:

Orbital forcing is indeed substantial on the millennial timescale for high-latitudes during the summer season, and the theoretically expected cooling trend is seen in proxy reconstructions of Arctic summer temperature trends (Kaufman et al, 2009). But insolation forcing is near zero at tropical latitudes, and long-term cooling trends are not seen in non-tree ring, tropical terrestrial proxy records such as the Lake Tanganyika (tropical East Africa) (Tierney et al, 2010) (see below).

Long-term orbital forcing over the past 1-2 millennia is also minimal for annual, global or hemispheric insolation changes, and other natural forcings such as volcanic and solar radiative forcing have been shown to be adequate in explaining past long-term pre-industrial temperature trends in this case (e.g. Hegerl et al, 2007). Esper et al’s speculation that the potential bias they identify with high-latitude, summer-temperature TRW tree-ring data carry over to a bias in hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on multiple types of proxy records spanning tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, and which reflect a range of seasons, not just summer (e.g. Hegerl et al, 2006; Mann et al, 1999;2008) is therefore a stretch.

Indeed, there are a number of lines of evidence that contradict that more speculative claim. For example, if one eliminates tree-ring data entirely from the Mann et al (2008) “EIV” temperature reconstruction (see below; blue curve corresponds to the case where all tree-ring data have been withheld from the multiproxy network), one finds not only that the resulting reconstruction is broadly similar to that obtained with tree-ring data, but in fact the pre-industrial long-term cooling trend in hemispheric mean temperature is actually lessened when the tree-ring data are eliminated—precisely the opposite of what is predicted by the Esper et al hypothesis.

As for the way the study is being mis-reported, one comment in the Real Climate thread does note that a significant part of the blame can be put down to Esper's comments in a press release:

Journalists should only be partially blamed for the bad coverage of the latest Jan Esper paper. Some of them wrote stories without interviewing the authors, which is wrong, but the press release issued by JG University in Mainz helps the denialist fringe by including a couple of odd quotes from Esper himself. Take a look at what he says:
http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/15491.php
“We found that previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low,” says Esper. “Such findings are also significant with regard to climate policy, as they will influence the way today’s climate changes are seen in context of historical warm periods.”

 And some of the Real Climate team do get stuck into that:

I wonder if you guys could please comment on this press release, because it’s very hard for journalists to deal with such vague statements. Do you really think Esper is advocating lowering the tone of the IPCC reports?

[Response: I have no idea. I'd say it was more related to emphasizing the potential implications of one's own work over anyone else's - a frequent occurrence in press releases. I generally find it prudent to wait for the work on the implications to be done (for instance). - gavin]

[Response: Gavin is again quite generous. It would appear that Esper's misleading statements and overstatement of larger implications directly fed the sort of denialist frame represented in the Daily Mail article. It is of course impossible, and unwise, to guess at whether or not that was his intent. -mike]

 Interestingly, John Nielsen-Gammon a couple of weeks ago had a long and useful post in which he looked at how a paper on one particular bit of one Antarctic ice shelve had its significance over-inflated by the skeptic press too.   He also noted at one point that the press release for that study did what seemed to be some exaggeration of the significance of the findings.

If climate scientists don't want the public to be so easily confused (and for their results to not be so readily twisted by "skeptics" who are motivated to twist it), they really need to be careful with how their work is explained in their own press releases.

Holt returns

Back in 2006 and 2007, I recommended articles by Jim Holt.  In fact, I see that my enjoyment of his science eriting (usually looking at the big, big questions of life, the universe, and everything) extends at least back to articles in Slate in 2004.  

So it's good to see he has a book out on the basic question Why Does the World Exist? and it's getting some very good reviews.  I like this extract from that last link:

... the very intractability of the problem turns out to have a salutary (and fun) side effect: All the ordinary kinds of answers being impossible, one begins to think in earnest about the extraordinary ones. This is a book that gets us to take seriously, at least for a few pages, the proposition that the universe was brought into being by the abstract idea of Goodness. (Hey, Plato thought so.) Elsewhere, we get a probabilistic, Bayesian case for the existence of God. We hear Heidegger speculate that nothingness is an agent, that noth-ing is a verb (“Das Nichts nichtet,” or “Nothing noths”: shades of Hopkins, for whom the self “selves”); perhaps, then, nothing nothed itself, thereby creating Being. We contemplate panpsychism, the theory that consciousness is a fundamental property, irreducible to physical components and pervasive throughout the universe: that, in the words of the astrophysicist Sir Arthur Eddington, “the stuff of the world is mind-stuff.”

The weirdness goes on. We learn—and I am quoting here because my powers to intelligently paraphrase this are limited—that “a tiny bit of energy-filled vacuum could spontaneously ‘tunnel’ into existence,” and then, bang, expand to become the universe. We learn that a hundred-thousandth of a gram of matter would suffice to generate a universe like ours, which means it’s conceivable that we were created by some extraterrestrial nerd in an extra-universal lab. We entertain the possibility, favored by some physicists, that “nothingness is unstable,” which means something was bound to happen. And we entertain the possibility that everything was bound to happen. That is the principle of fecundity: the idea that all possible worlds are real. Muse on the implications of that one for your personal life—or lives—on your next subway ride home.

Big (-ish) brother in your pocket

Android 4.1 ‘Jelly Bean’ Review | | Independent Editor's choice Blogs

From this review of the new Android operating system (made by Google), we get this description of the very futuristic sounding (and privacy damaging, I assume) Google Now:

With Android 4.1 Google have introduced a major new feature called “Google Now’. It is a kind of self aware personal organiser/assistant, designed to serve up useful information based on your location and behaviour. It sounds pretty ominous, but it’s actually quite brilliant. By analysing your search terms and cross-referencing them with your calendar and current location, Google Now provides an array of useful information without any effort on your part.

It provides public transport information when you’re near a bus stop or train station, it suggests places to eat and visit when you’re away travelling, as well as up-to-date weather, sports results for your favourite teams and routes back to your home when you’re out and about. It even takes real-time traffic data into consideration when suggesting your route home, then estimates your arrival time accordingly.

All of this is achieved without the user entering in any information. It intelligently guesses where you live and work, what teams you support, even which flights you might be taking, all with surprising accuracy. This is all thanks to the insight it gains from the location and use of your smartphone within the Google ecosystem. The results are elegantly displayed in a series of informative and well-designed cards, which you can simply swipe away with your finger if they are no longer needed.

This might sound a little ‘Big Brother-esque’ on paper, but Google Now manages to present the information it interprets in a very user-friendly and unobtrusive way. Rather than feeling like an invasion of privacy, it feels more like an essential addition to the modern mobile experience.

Nice house

It's been a while since I've looked through Dezeen for some nice architecture, but I do like this Japanese house, especially the bathroom on the top that has an unusual outlook.  (I would be nervous using it during a summer storm though.)  Here it is:

Banks discussed

The LIBOR scandal: The rotten heart of finance | The Economist

The Economist considers that that LIBOR scandal is a very serious matter, with international implications.

A libertarian inclined free market economist from Melbourne, who repeatedly at his blog notes that he doesn't watch the ABC and spends all of his time lately promoting political stuff (and cherry picked graphs with inadequate explanation) of benefit to the Coalition, taking his cue from one bit of Wall Street Journal commentary says (my paraphrase) "oh pooh, this is all boring and about nothing important."   I wonder if he has read another piece from the WSJ which seems to me to argue "of course the banks may have been manipulating this for profit, and we need to fix the system and move on because we just can't afford massive litigation about this."

Who to believe...?

NASA gets dramatic

The New York Times mentioned this NASA video as being slick and popular on Youtube, and a cut above their usual bland stuff.   All quite true.  And it does seems a very optimistic way to try to land a rover on Mars next month:

Tube problem

Getting your tubes tied: Why do young women have a hard time getting sterilized? - Slate Magazine

I would be pretty sure the same thing happens in Australia:  doctors being very, very reluctant to do tubal ligation at the request of young-ish women who simply say they never want to have children.

The article notes that there are figures on the number of women who actually go on to regret having this done:

According to analyses of the CREST data, there is a cumulative 12.7 percent probability that any woman would express regret within 14 years of sterilization. But for women under the age of 30 at the time of the procedure, there is a 20.3 percent cumulative probability that they would eventually want to take it all back (compared to only 5.9 percent in the older cohort). Of course, there are other factors that may predict regret, including partner/doctor pressure and disagreement among partners about the procedure. However, the CREST research shows that sterilization at a young age is the strongest predictor of regret. (Incidentally, this trend holds true with young men getting vasectomies.)

I was also surprised at the failure rate for the operation:

 According to the Collaborative Review of Sterilization (CREST) study, the 10-year probability of pregnancy following a ligation is 18.5 per 1,000 procedures, about seven of which could be ectopic, depending on surgical method and age.

 I guess I just assumed it could be done in such a way as to virtually assure success.   (I know vasectomies can also fail - let me check the rate - around 1 in a 1000 according to this site.  I guess that makes sense.)

Anyway, I fully understand doctors' reluctance to use tubal ligation on young women.  

Rain and the jet stream

BBC News - Why, oh why, does it keep raining?

Here's an article noting that the change in the jet stream position is the main reason for Britain's wet summer.  The possible relationship between this and climate change is not discussed much.

The oxtail noted (or ox tail, if you prefer)

Before I forget, and primarily for my own future reference, I followed this recipe for oxtail cooked in the pressure cooker on Saturday night.   Quite successful, although I did just use a can of tomatoes instead of fresh ones, added some celery and bits of left over fennel, and next time I would drain off some of the oil before frying the vegetables.  Still, the sauce was tasty and rich, and the cooking time was right.

I see now that the guy (Steffen) who put up this recipe is (or was in 2007) ""a Ph.D physicist, primarily working on data acquisition and computing at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory." !

I'm even more impressed now.

I love a good oxtail stew.  What the heck: just in case his website goes down, I'll copy the recipe here:
.

Doing my bit

Because I am fan of Wordperfect, I will now embed their (kinda dull) promo for version X6, which was released earlier this year:



It's not just me who likes it.   And here's another person.  In fact, given that it probably picks up virtually no new users, it may be a fair assumption that nearly all Wordperfect users have been dedicated to it for years and years and love it in a way that is a tad unnatural in the scheme of how people should feel about  word processing software.   

As for the X6 version I like the idea of the eBook publisher.  I would probably never use it, but take comfort in knowing it was there. 

Hunting down the museum

Well, this is slightly amusing.   In last night's post, I noted a reference in The Japan Times to a "Museum of Perverts" in Kagurazaka.   Oddly, Googling this place is drawing a blank, as far as I can see.   (Well, there is no obvious link, anyway.)   So I'm a bit puzzled about this.

But looking at my Sitemeter tonight, I see that it was not only me, but someone from UNESCO in Paris was Googling for it too:

Good to see a UN body putting in the effort to list all culturally significant museums of the world...

I'm sure the answer is "no"

Is crude Ted really a family film?

I won't be seeing "Ted":  I don't even care much for Family Guy, so I can hardly be called a Seth MacFarlane fan.  I don't appreciate much in the way of crude humour - but it seems the world can't get enough of it.   I sort of thought that most limits had been reached with the big bodily fluid joke in Something About Mary (which didn't even make sense, really) but how wrong I was.  (Apparently, because I don't go to see the movies which are reviewed as being adult raunchy movies anyway.)

What was formerly humour that was mainly between men in a private setting is now up on the screen for women and young teenagers to see as well.   The moviemakers who specialise in this might argue that it is really just being open about a level of humour that was always there, but I'm far from convinced that universalizing such stuff is a good thing.

And people really are pretty stupid when it comes to what they will take their kids to see.  That's a given.

A wetter world?

Of course, it may only be an impression given by better reporting, but I can't help but think that the world still seems to be a wetter place in the last 6 to 12 months, despite the easing of the la nina.

Locally, Brisbane has had an unusually grey and damp winter, and it seems that all of Queensland is affected, even as we are being warned that a el nino seems to be developing:

Unseasonable downpours have hit north and central west Queensland, sparking flood warnings, as the Townsville region recorded its wettest July day in more than 60 years. SINCE 9am (AEST) on Monday, the region has had between 80 and 100 millimetres of rain - well beyond the previous July record of 51mm in a day set in 1950, the ABC reported.

There has been lots of news of the wet summer in England:

Speaking in Yealmpton, Richard Cresswell from the Environment Agency says the "fifth flood event" of the 2012 summer is "unprecedented".

 and floods in Russia have killed scores.  Now that I Google the topic, I see that there have been floods in India, although the article notes that the total monsoon rainfall is currently "running at 31% below annual average."   As the monsoon season can last til September, I wonder what the figure will end up at. 

It may end up bolstering my hunch, developed over the last couple of years, that increased intensity of flooding may be the first really problematic aspect of global warming that is widely recognised.

Should I be surprised? - I can't decide

From phys.org:

“We present a novel twist present in quantum mechanics, absent in its classical counterpart: We are able to show that very natural, reasonable questions about quantum measurement are, intriguingly, undecidable,” Eisert told Phys.org. “At the same time, the corresponding classical problem is decidable.”

The problem in question involves a measurement device that generates any one of multiple outputs depending on the outcome of the measurement. The output state is then fed back into the device as the input, leading to a new output, and the process repeats. The question is whether there exist any finite sequences of measurement outcomes that never occur.

“The problem as such is simple - merely asking whether certain outcomes can occur in quantum measurements,” Eisert said.

When using a classical measurement device, the physicists show that they can always find an algorithm that can answer whether or not any outputs with zero probability exist. So in a classical context, the problem is decidable.

However, when using a quantum measurement device, the physicists show that there cannot be an algorithm that always provides the correct answer, and so the problem becomes undecidable. The scientists explain that the undecidability arises from interference in the quantum device, implying that, at least in this scenario, undecidability appears to be a genuine quantum property.

 An early thought:  assuming quantum involvement in brain cells, does this have relevance to the question of free will?