Thursday, March 26, 2020
Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Today's thoughts on you-know-what (and sorry if my talking about schools is getting tedious)
* I thought that Scott Morrison last night was sounding reasonably good in his press conference of new restrictions, with little smirking to be seen; but it sort of fell apart yet again when it came to how he can't make "schools to remain open" sound logically consistent with things like "we are so worried about people being too close together in a food court, they can't sit down in one."
I don't care how many times Homer tells me in comments that his wife works at some (very unique, I reckon) school in which no teachers are scared of catching it from a student, and they all have no problem keeping 1.5m away from every single student every single minute of the day: my daughter tells me student numbers at her high school are down to less than half anyway, and the teachers that are turning up (some are not!) aren't really trying to teach those students who are there. I got a letter today from the school saying "yeah, we know this is really hard, but we aren't set up for online teaching, and the Year 12 assessment times are set in concrete and just have to start going ahead next week anyway. Good luck everybody!".
My brain does not understand why this is so difficult to deal with: an abrupt move to students learning at home is not going to be a success, so just close at least all high schools for a month now (adding two weeks to the Easter holiday) to let the schools work out how best to deal with "at home" schooling, and whether it is really needed after after a month at all. (It probably won't be, is my guess.) The date for assessments are pushed out, and students get two weeks less holiday later in the year.
If Victoria can manage this, why can't other states? There are presumably administrative reasons of which I am unaware, but this situation requires a new found flexibility, surely.
I do think that Morrison talking as if once you close a school down, for 2 weeks extra, you can never recover from it for the rest of the year (not to mention his suggestion that they might stay closed for 6 months), shows a remarkable lack of flexibility.
As for primary schools: an extended holiday now may help, except that those essential services parents who cannot look after the kids suddenly should be able to leave them at schools that perform more of a child minding service. Maybe it would be 1/5 of the normal students, with a similar reduction in staff needed to look after them.
* There is reason to think, based on a couple of things I have read today (like these comments by Peter Doherty) that the sudden strong action which we are having may succeed in never letting this problem get out of hand in the hospitals. I feel talk of closing down anything for 6 months may be unnecessarily alarmist.
* Conflict between doctors and experts as to future progress of the problem continues apace - it's interesting how difficult this problem is for experts as well as lay people.
I don't care how many times Homer tells me in comments that his wife works at some (very unique, I reckon) school in which no teachers are scared of catching it from a student, and they all have no problem keeping 1.5m away from every single student every single minute of the day: my daughter tells me student numbers at her high school are down to less than half anyway, and the teachers that are turning up (some are not!) aren't really trying to teach those students who are there. I got a letter today from the school saying "yeah, we know this is really hard, but we aren't set up for online teaching, and the Year 12 assessment times are set in concrete and just have to start going ahead next week anyway. Good luck everybody!".
My brain does not understand why this is so difficult to deal with: an abrupt move to students learning at home is not going to be a success, so just close at least all high schools for a month now (adding two weeks to the Easter holiday) to let the schools work out how best to deal with "at home" schooling, and whether it is really needed after after a month at all. (It probably won't be, is my guess.) The date for assessments are pushed out, and students get two weeks less holiday later in the year.
If Victoria can manage this, why can't other states? There are presumably administrative reasons of which I am unaware, but this situation requires a new found flexibility, surely.
I do think that Morrison talking as if once you close a school down, for 2 weeks extra, you can never recover from it for the rest of the year (not to mention his suggestion that they might stay closed for 6 months), shows a remarkable lack of flexibility.
As for primary schools: an extended holiday now may help, except that those essential services parents who cannot look after the kids suddenly should be able to leave them at schools that perform more of a child minding service. Maybe it would be 1/5 of the normal students, with a similar reduction in staff needed to look after them.
* There is reason to think, based on a couple of things I have read today (like these comments by Peter Doherty) that the sudden strong action which we are having may succeed in never letting this problem get out of hand in the hospitals. I feel talk of closing down anything for 6 months may be unnecessarily alarmist.
* Conflict between doctors and experts as to future progress of the problem continues apace - it's interesting how difficult this problem is for experts as well as lay people.
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
RMIT must be so proud
Steve Kates at Catallaxy, today:
It’s the flu and it’s on the way to containment. It looks like a relative handful will unfortunately die, but its not the Andromeda Strain either.Just shows the quality of Associate Professors at that institution...
Various thoughts
* Fran Kelly on Radio National Breakfast this morning was broadcasting from her living room, and I had no idea until she said so. The audio quality was exactly the same.
My thought: if too many businesses find they can get things done just as well if key employees work from home, is the commercial real estate market going to come out as the long term loser as a result of coronavirus? I mean, it already seemed clear that too much new floorspace has been built in the last decade or so for retail, with shopping centres gradually emptying. Is the same going to become clear for office space now too? I think all funds which invest in commercial real estate ought to be having a very serious re-consideration.
* So, as I expected, the Teachers Union has had to step in to tell at least the Queensland government to just close the schools now (for a month long break). My daughter tells me that there are a lot of students not coming to school. She also tells me about some teachers who are spraying disinfectant with wild abandon around their classroom.
* Is there an actual personality disorder for people who fall in love with fascist authoritarian figures but can't recognise what fascistic authoritarianism looks like? If so, Steve Kates has it. In a ridiculous paranoid post a couple of days ago, he got mightily offended by Dr Fauci correcting Dear Leader Trump, who obviously is the wisest man in any room:
My thought: if too many businesses find they can get things done just as well if key employees work from home, is the commercial real estate market going to come out as the long term loser as a result of coronavirus? I mean, it already seemed clear that too much new floorspace has been built in the last decade or so for retail, with shopping centres gradually emptying. Is the same going to become clear for office space now too? I think all funds which invest in commercial real estate ought to be having a very serious re-consideration.
* So, as I expected, the Teachers Union has had to step in to tell at least the Queensland government to just close the schools now (for a month long break). My daughter tells me that there are a lot of students not coming to school. She also tells me about some teachers who are spraying disinfectant with wild abandon around their classroom.
* Is there an actual personality disorder for people who fall in love with fascist authoritarian figures but can't recognise what fascistic authoritarianism looks like? If so, Steve Kates has it. In a ridiculous paranoid post a couple of days ago, he got mightily offended by Dr Fauci correcting Dear Leader Trump, who obviously is the wisest man in any room:
Every time I see the face of Dr Fauci while telling us about Corona Virus I realise how much he must have had a bollocking from the President since from the start I was aware of what a complete lying incompetent he was....* In one rare case of outlets on either side of the political divide agreeing, I have seen both Right and Left-ish opinion pieces saying "Washington, don't you dare bail out the cruise line industry". I think that's right. I mean, it's not as if the sparkling new-ish mega ships are going to be immediately sent to be cut up into scrap on that beach (in India?) if the head company goes bankrupt, surely? There would just be a re-arrangement of assets and, given its likely continued popularity once coronavirus has run its course, the industry will be fully back within a couple of years. I would think. Yet Dear Leader is keen to help them, apparently.
The one thing you may be sure of is that he was “muzzled” in the sense that he was told in no uncertain terms that he is an untrustworthy dimwit and if he doesn’t work within the team, he will be out on his ear. The Deep State is your enemy. You can see it in the way the media will say not an unkind word about the Chinese origins of the CV. In fact, all they do is rant on themselves about the so-called racism of saying that a virus that originated in China originated in China. If you can’t say something negative about the President, don’t say it at all is the policy.
Monday, March 23, 2020
Late Movie review - Us
I'm having trouble tracking down my review of Jordan Peele's first big success - Get Out. I'm pretty sure I said it was good, up to the point of the explanation of what was going on, which was lifted from C grade 1950's science fiction. And I was a little perturbed about the relish with which the righteous black guy got to violently attack the evil white people.
I am sad to report that pretty much the exact same things can be said about Us. He's a good director of well made, well acted films based on his own really bad ideas for films. The explanation for what is happening in this one seemed to me even more ludicrous than that in Get Out. I thought it may have been inspired by a nightmarish dream, perhaps after watching a Twilight Zone episode.
My son commented that it seemed obvious that it was intended to have a deeper meaning: some sort of critique of American society, but it's hard seeing what it is. I think it may be a case of an appearance of depth that is not really there.
I would like Peele to direct something he doesn't write, and which ultimately makes more sense.
I am sad to report that pretty much the exact same things can be said about Us. He's a good director of well made, well acted films based on his own really bad ideas for films. The explanation for what is happening in this one seemed to me even more ludicrous than that in Get Out. I thought it may have been inspired by a nightmarish dream, perhaps after watching a Twilight Zone episode.
My son commented that it seemed obvious that it was intended to have a deeper meaning: some sort of critique of American society, but it's hard seeing what it is. I think it may be a case of an appearance of depth that is not really there.
I would like Peele to direct something he doesn't write, and which ultimately makes more sense.
To state the obvious - the Australian response to Covid 19 is pretty confusing
Everyone else is talking about it, so why not me?:
* on schools (again): it seems that the Commonwealth tried to get the States to agree on a consistent approach, but failed. My daughter is in year 12, and I regularly also chat to a State school primary school teacher of Year 1. From these sources, I have a fair idea that teachers are not happy and are fearful of catching it from their students. Queensland teachers were expecting the Easter holidays to be extended and brought forward, allowing a month long break. Now we are having a "going to school is not compulsory, but schools are open, and if you are in one State they would like you to go to school, but in another they would prefer you stay at home" mishmash, all (presumably) with students still having to sit exams and submit assessments whether or not their parent lets them go to school.
Morrison talked as if closing down schools might mean they can't reopen for, say, 6 months, and so all kids would lose a full year of school. But of course that's not a necessary outcome. I would ahve thought that re-arranging holidays this year allows the schools to get better prepared for both:
a. dealing with prevention in schools assuming they can continue after a month break (allowing classrooms to be re-arranged for distancing, building up a pile of soap, paper towels and hand sanitisers, detailing compulsory sanitation measures before classes, maybe even getting thermometers to allow student's temperatures to be taken) and
b. preparing for the potential need to fully close them to but allow for on line education to continue, even if at a reduced intensity compared to normal schooling.
And, as with other countries, you could also make it clear that those parents whose jobs simply do not allow for day time care of younger students, the schools will always be available to provide that service.
This would have made a lot more sense, if you ask me, compared to the weird sort of mishmash we now have.
* the financial response - I don't understand enough about it to have a strong opinion one way or another. Significant parts of it don't make obvious sense to me.
* closing down of cafes, pubs and cinemas, etc. Perhaps this needs more emphasis on a successful outcome meaning they can re-open, perhaps with limitations, in a (say) a month's time. I think part of the dismay about it is that the overall impression left is that the shutdown will likely be for months, not weeks.
* on schools (again): it seems that the Commonwealth tried to get the States to agree on a consistent approach, but failed. My daughter is in year 12, and I regularly also chat to a State school primary school teacher of Year 1. From these sources, I have a fair idea that teachers are not happy and are fearful of catching it from their students. Queensland teachers were expecting the Easter holidays to be extended and brought forward, allowing a month long break. Now we are having a "going to school is not compulsory, but schools are open, and if you are in one State they would like you to go to school, but in another they would prefer you stay at home" mishmash, all (presumably) with students still having to sit exams and submit assessments whether or not their parent lets them go to school.
Morrison talked as if closing down schools might mean they can't reopen for, say, 6 months, and so all kids would lose a full year of school. But of course that's not a necessary outcome. I would ahve thought that re-arranging holidays this year allows the schools to get better prepared for both:
a. dealing with prevention in schools assuming they can continue after a month break (allowing classrooms to be re-arranged for distancing, building up a pile of soap, paper towels and hand sanitisers, detailing compulsory sanitation measures before classes, maybe even getting thermometers to allow student's temperatures to be taken) and
b. preparing for the potential need to fully close them to but allow for on line education to continue, even if at a reduced intensity compared to normal schooling.
And, as with other countries, you could also make it clear that those parents whose jobs simply do not allow for day time care of younger students, the schools will always be available to provide that service.
This would have made a lot more sense, if you ask me, compared to the weird sort of mishmash we now have.
* the financial response - I don't understand enough about it to have a strong opinion one way or another. Significant parts of it don't make obvious sense to me.
* closing down of cafes, pubs and cinemas, etc. Perhaps this needs more emphasis on a successful outcome meaning they can re-open, perhaps with limitations, in a (say) a month's time. I think part of the dismay about it is that the overall impression left is that the shutdown will likely be for months, not weeks.
Saturday, March 21, 2020
Friday, March 20, 2020
Getting more dubious by the day
Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy has joined Mr Morrison at the media conference and he has confirmed schools are staying open under these measures, for these reasons:
"I think it is really important to recognise that, as we've said before, we think the risk to children with this virus is very low. Only 2.4% of all the cases in China in Hubei Province were under 19, and there have been very, very few significant cases. Obviously we do have some concerns that children may have a role in transmission but most children who have seemed to have got the virus have got it from adults as you've seen in this case. We think keeping children at home when there is relatively no community spread is probably disproportionate given they probably won't stay at home anyway. They may be cared for by elderly parents. There may be circumstances where there are outbreaks in an area where we do need to close schools for a period of time. Our strategy for the next six months is to keep schools open and we think that risk is appropriate."
Sorry, but I am sceptical of this advice, given that:
a. other countries and states are obviously not closing their schools without having their own medical advice that it's a worthwhile thing to do;
b. the advice from the same CMO keeps getting tougher on the recommended social distancing, it seems a bit nonsensical to say that the age group most notorious for having little "personal space" are to stay in the place where they are going to rub up against maximum numbers of people;
c. "...they probably won't stay at home anyway..." seems just a bit of guesswork, no?
d. as I argued yesterday, why not differentiate between high schools and primary schools: it doesn't have to be "all or nothing";
e. this advice is being given on the same day a student caught Covid-19 from a teacher in Adelaide. Are the State government immune from legal action by parents who kids catch it from teachers? I have my doubts. And, of course, transmission the other way is quite possible, too.
I don't know - I think the Teachers Unions might have to take this on....
What it's like travelling to Beijing at the moment
A European guy has explained on twitter what it was like travelling back to Beijing at the moment. You can read the whole thing threaded together here.
It's pretty interesting. Gray Connolly would probably complain it's too sympathetic to the Chinese, who are our enemy after all and started this whole mess, etc, etc. But it's hard to imagine America under Trump running posters like this:
The Trump equivalent would be:
"Don't let the Chinese virus spread"
"President Trump is on top of this"
"Don't trust the fake news media - it will be over soon"
It's pretty interesting. Gray Connolly would probably complain it's too sympathetic to the Chinese, who are our enemy after all and started this whole mess, etc, etc. But it's hard to imagine America under Trump running posters like this:
The Trump equivalent would be:
"Don't let the Chinese virus spread"
"President Trump is on top of this"
"Don't trust the fake news media - it will be over soon"
Some anti-vaping speculation
I see that the Washington Post is reporting:
I wonder - will any researched in America be looking in future at a relationship between vaping and hospital admissions for Covid-19 I would not be surprised if vapers are over-represented in hospital admissions.
A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analysis of U.S. cases from Feb. 12 to March 16 released Wednesday shows 38 percent of those sick enough to be hospitalized were younger than 55.The report also notes that in parts of Europe, a lot of younger folk are requiring hospitalisation.
I wonder - will any researched in America be looking in future at a relationship between vaping and hospital admissions for Covid-19 I would not be surprised if vapers are over-represented in hospital admissions.
So long, Tulsi
Vox has a good explanation of the controversial Presidential run of the rather strange Tulsi Gabbard. Seems pretty fair to me in its criticisms.
The stupid conservativism of Gray Connolly
Jason Soon seems unduly enamoured of conservative Daily Telegraph columnist Gray Connolly, if the number of times he re-tweets him is any guide.
Being a conservative Catholic, Connolly has a soft spot for Donald Trump. He is, for example, defending Trump's deliberate and childish continuation of calling Covid-19 the "Chinese virus". Never mind that this virtually guarantees Trump wingnuts will continue abusing Asian Americans on the street for infecting their nation.
I was reminded on Twitter that George Bush after 9-11 went to a mosque within 6 days of the attack - but this was in the day when Republican presidents were not narcissistic emotional cripples whose appeal to the base was, from the very start, based in large part on drumming up fear of foreigners.
Basically, if you're a Catholic who isn't repulsed by this aspect of the Trump presidency, you're not following your Church's teaching and you are an embarrassment to your religion.
Next up: Connolly doesn't like it that there are some doctors questioning the medical advice coming from the Australian government's CMO:
Being a conservative of military background (I think), he yearns for strong compliance with whatever the top says:
The problem is that, as I showed in yesterday's post about school closures, anyone can see (based on widely available credible material - not just what Twitter armchair "experts" are saying) that there is clear conflict between international experts on the details of a "best" policy response to this medical crisis. And we also know that responses have consequences beyond the mere medical - obviously governments worry about the economic effects of (some) parents having to stay home to look after kids out of school.
Of course it is possible that the CMO could be giving questionable advice, and I think it is just a foolish version of conservatism to tell people that, in a field like this, there is only one expert who has to be given credence. (And no - any smartarse reading this who thinks I should take the same line on climate change - there is no credible contrary opinion on the fact that it is real and requires urgent attention. There is room for discussion as to the best policy response, though.)
Third of this tour of Stupid Takes of Connolly: he tweeted this -
Again, any conservative who thinks they are smart yet cannot see the danger in the way Trump deals with all media criticism is just foolish and an embarrassment to what used to be intelligent conservatism.
A President who operates by teaching his base to disbelieve any and all news outlets that are critical of him because to do so is ipso facto proof that they are corrupt and out to get him - that is a "danger to the republic" - assuming, of course, that you want the republic to be one that is based on a democracy that has a concept of objective truth that is not dependent on what the Dear Leader tells them to believe (as endorsed by his de facto State media known as Fox News.)
For a conservative with a military background, Connolly seemingly has no interest whatsoever in the propaganda techniques and habits of authoritarian regimes.
That's all for now.
Being a conservative Catholic, Connolly has a soft spot for Donald Trump. He is, for example, defending Trump's deliberate and childish continuation of calling Covid-19 the "Chinese virus". Never mind that this virtually guarantees Trump wingnuts will continue abusing Asian Americans on the street for infecting their nation.
I was reminded on Twitter that George Bush after 9-11 went to a mosque within 6 days of the attack - but this was in the day when Republican presidents were not narcissistic emotional cripples whose appeal to the base was, from the very start, based in large part on drumming up fear of foreigners.
Basically, if you're a Catholic who isn't repulsed by this aspect of the Trump presidency, you're not following your Church's teaching and you are an embarrassment to your religion.
Next up: Connolly doesn't like it that there are some doctors questioning the medical advice coming from the Australian government's CMO:
Being a conservative of military background (I think), he yearns for strong compliance with whatever the top says:
The problem is that, as I showed in yesterday's post about school closures, anyone can see (based on widely available credible material - not just what Twitter armchair "experts" are saying) that there is clear conflict between international experts on the details of a "best" policy response to this medical crisis. And we also know that responses have consequences beyond the mere medical - obviously governments worry about the economic effects of (some) parents having to stay home to look after kids out of school.
Of course it is possible that the CMO could be giving questionable advice, and I think it is just a foolish version of conservatism to tell people that, in a field like this, there is only one expert who has to be given credence. (And no - any smartarse reading this who thinks I should take the same line on climate change - there is no credible contrary opinion on the fact that it is real and requires urgent attention. There is room for discussion as to the best policy response, though.)
Third of this tour of Stupid Takes of Connolly: he tweeted this -
Again, any conservative who thinks they are smart yet cannot see the danger in the way Trump deals with all media criticism is just foolish and an embarrassment to what used to be intelligent conservatism.
A President who operates by teaching his base to disbelieve any and all news outlets that are critical of him because to do so is ipso facto proof that they are corrupt and out to get him - that is a "danger to the republic" - assuming, of course, that you want the republic to be one that is based on a democracy that has a concept of objective truth that is not dependent on what the Dear Leader tells them to believe (as endorsed by his de facto State media known as Fox News.)
For a conservative with a military background, Connolly seemingly has no interest whatsoever in the propaganda techniques and habits of authoritarian regimes.
That's all for now.
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Oh look - another article on Singaporean Covid-19 success
At New Daily, they talk about the widespread body temperature scanning used in Singapore:
And if people are isolated at home in Singapore, how do they check up on them?:
And how much are these infra red body thermometers, which I think teachers here should be using on their kids? It appears you can get a good one for about $100 (although ebay has some at the suss price of under $10!).
The political lesson of Singapore would seem to be this - you can have a safe, functioning society that deals quickly and efficiency with novel viral threats, but not if you're in one which puts libertarian principles on a pedestal above safety.
Libertarians are a menace to society.
In the Asian city-state, anyone entering a public building, including offices or shopping centres, must first have their temperatures scanned at the doors.Gosh. Can you imagine some Australia hot heads (a pun) accepting a waiter telling them they need to leave because their temperature is too high?
Melbourne lawyer Henry Carlson, who is living in Singapore, said the devices looked like a remote control.
“They point it at your forehead, like a laser, then they click it and it shows your temperature,” Mr Carlson told The New Daily.
If a person’s temperature is normal, they are given a sticker to wear that indicates they are healthy, he said.
If not, they must sit on an ‘isolation chair’ while they cool down.
If they fail again, they are refused entry and must go home.
And it’s not just happening in public buildings – waiters have been spotted with scan guns, too.
“I went for a burger and beers on Friday with some mates when one of the waiters came around with a temperature scanner,” Mr Carlson said.
“They scanned my forehead just as I was about to order.”
And if people are isolated at home in Singapore, how do they check up on them?:
Smart technology is also being used to monitor people who have been ordered to stay home in self-isolation for 14 days.Fantastic. I wonder if Singapore has legislative cover for this, or do they just assume cultural compliance? (I suspect the former.)
At-risk or infected people who are meant to be staying at home receive a text message or phone call at various times during the day asking for a photo or GPS update of their location.
And how much are these infra red body thermometers, which I think teachers here should be using on their kids? It appears you can get a good one for about $100 (although ebay has some at the suss price of under $10!).
The political lesson of Singapore would seem to be this - you can have a safe, functioning society that deals quickly and efficiency with novel viral threats, but not if you're in one which puts libertarian principles on a pedestal above safety.
Libertarians are a menace to society.
A (former?) Republican regrets...
This guy, apparently a Republican Party insider, has a book coming out which is a mea culpa for the state of the party. From a Washington Post column:
Long before Trump, the Republican Party adopted as a key article of faith that more government was bad. We worked overtime to squeeze it and shrink it, to drown it in the bathtub, as anti-tax activist Grover Norquist liked to say. But somewhere along the way, it became, “all government is bad.” Now we are in a crisis that can be solved only by massive government intervention. That’s awkward.
Next, somehow, the party of idealistic Teddy Roosevelt, pragmatic Bob Dole and heroic John McCain became anti-intellectual, by which I mean, almost reflexively opposed to knowledge and expertise. We began to distrust the experts and put faith in, well, quackery. It was 2013 when former Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal said the Republican Party “must stop being the stupid party.” By 2016, the party had embraced as its nominee a reality-TV host who later suggested that perhaps the noise from windmills causes cancer.
The Republican Party has gone from admiring William F. Buckley Jr., an Ivy League intellectual, to viewing higher education as a left-wing conspiracy to indoctrinate the young. In retribution, we started defunding education. Never mind that Republican leaders are among the most highly educated on the planet; it’s just that they now feel compelled to embrace ignorance as a cost of doing business. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, as an example, denounces “coastal elites” while holding degrees from Princeton University and Harvard Law School and having served as a Supreme Court clerk.
Finally, there is the populist GOP distrust and dislike of the other, the foreign. Yes, it is annoying that the Chinese didn’t come clean and explain everything to us from the start. But it appears that a Swiss company is helping to jump-start us in testing; and it is a German company that American officials reportedly tried to lure to the United States recently to help develop a vaccine for the virus. We talk about how we need to be independent even as we do all kinds of things that prove we aren’t.The GOP’s relationship with science has resembled some kind of Frankenstein experiment: Let’s see what happens when we play with the chemistry set! Conservatives have spent years trying to cut funds for basic science and research, lamenting government seed money for nearly every budding technology and then hoping for the best. In the weeks ahead, it’s not some fiery, anti-Washington populist with an XM radio gig who is going to save folks’ lives; it is more likely to be someone who has been studying this stuff for decades, almost certainly at some point with federal help or outright patronage.
This needs to be posted at Catallaxy
I just want to see the frenzy of spittle spraying outrage this would cause there (although it's not as if they need any provocation, really, the dimwits):
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Let me be the expert
Clearly, there is conflict over whether school closures to slow down an epidemic are worth it. At least one expert has said he strongly disagrees with our Chief Medical Officer Brendon Murphy's decision that it is too early to close them.
Apparently, the American CDC (which has dubious credibility under Trump) argues that it could be more dangerous to close schools than keep them open, because the rampaging students on the streets could help spread it throughout society. This concern indicates a lack of knowledge of the behaviour of modern children. As explained on Twitter:
Now, I have to admit, if you are talking young primary school children, and there is no way you can get a healthy, younger adult to babysit them, there would be a risk of the foolhardy grandparents who offer to do the job catching it from the (quite possibly) asymptomatic grandkids. But, as I was saying to someone trying to work yesterday, when I were a lad, being left home alone for a few hours was not a very controversial thing once you were aged about 7 or 8. In Western countries (not so much in Asia, where they positively like sending kids out on the street from an early age to teach them independence and common sense) we have become too scared of leaving them alone anywhere. So a lot of primary school kids should be able to be left home alone.
But back to the evidence - this interview in Science about how and when to close schools is really good, and makes a strong case for pre-emptive closures to slow it all down:
There is also this good point:
a. Close down the secondary schools in nearly all of Australia now. No one going to a secondary school has to be babysat at home, so it won't stop any whose parents are nurses or health care workers from doing their job. Those parents who can work from home should, and supervise that their teenage kids are actually doing something about being glued to their phone in their room all day.
b. For now, leave primary schools open, but institute mandatory temperature taking, amending legislation to do so if necessary. (I was told by a primary school teacher that they are not allowed to take a child's temperature!) This is how Singapore kept their schools open. And it is why it is a bit
spurious of any expert to be using Singapore as an example of a successful virus containment country which did not close all schools if we cannot do the same things in the school here. Kids with a temperature are sent home to be kept there in quarantine. Employers will have to cope with the reduction in employees who have no choice but to stay at home with their under 8 year olds.
See, I've got it all worked out.
Update: from someone else at Twitter:
Apparently, the American CDC (which has dubious credibility under Trump) argues that it could be more dangerous to close schools than keep them open, because the rampaging students on the streets could help spread it throughout society. This concern indicates a lack of knowledge of the behaviour of modern children. As explained on Twitter:
But back to the evidence - this interview in Science about how and when to close schools is really good, and makes a strong case for pre-emptive closures to slow it all down:
Q: How about proactive school closures, before there are any infections associated with a school? Are they helpful?The simple suggestion as to when to close?:
A: Proactive school closures—closing schools before there’s a case there—have been shown to be one of the most powerful nonpharmaceutical interventions that we can deploy. Proactive school closures work like reactive school closures not just because they get the children, the little vectors, removed from circulation. It’s not just about keeping the kids safe. It’s keeping the whole community safe. When you close the schools, you reduce the mixing of the adults—parents dropping off at the school, the teachers being present. When you close the schools, you effectively require the parents to stay home.
There was a wonderful paper published that analyzed data regarding the Spanish flu in 1918, examining proactive versus reactive school closures. When did [regional] authorities close the schools relative to when the epidemic was spiking? What they found was that proactive school closing saved substantial numbers of lives. St. Louis closed the schools about a day in advance of the epidemic spiking, for 143 days. Pittsburgh closed 7 days after the peak and only for 53 days. And the death rate for the epidemic in St. Louis was roughly one-third as high as in Pittsburgh. These things work.
Q: How should jurisdictions decide when to pursue a proactive closing?
A: How many cases are there in the region? And what is the epidemiologically relevant region? If you’re in a mid-sized town you might say, as soon as there’s a community-acquired case in my town, whether it’s in my school or not, I’m closing my school.
There is also this good point:
Q: Are there social distancing efforts short of closing schools, especially if there are no cases associated with a particular school? For example, canceling big events that bring together lots of families?So, my "how hard it is to be an expert? I've studied this for the last hour" approach is to recommend intermediate steps, as I already proposed a day or two ago, as follows:
A: Yes, I’m so glad you mentioned that. We don’t have to have an all-or-nothing policy. We can have intermediate steps. For example, why not allow families who want to keep their kids home keep them home? Why not cancel all activities, like sporting events and musical performances that have large groups present?
a. Close down the secondary schools in nearly all of Australia now. No one going to a secondary school has to be babysat at home, so it won't stop any whose parents are nurses or health care workers from doing their job. Those parents who can work from home should, and supervise that their teenage kids are actually doing something about being glued to their phone in their room all day.
b. For now, leave primary schools open, but institute mandatory temperature taking, amending legislation to do so if necessary. (I was told by a primary school teacher that they are not allowed to take a child's temperature!) This is how Singapore kept their schools open. And it is why it is a bit
spurious of any expert to be using Singapore as an example of a successful virus containment country which did not close all schools if we cannot do the same things in the school here. Kids with a temperature are sent home to be kept there in quarantine. Employers will have to cope with the reduction in employees who have no choice but to stay at home with their under 8 year olds.
See, I've got it all worked out.
Update: from someone else at Twitter:
The appalling shamelessness of Fox News
Their role: defend Trump, on whatever his take is on the day, with no regard for consistency with what he said the day before. Exactly the same as what State media must do in authoritarian regimes, but Trump gets the treatment for free. Thanks, Rupert.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)