Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Yes, count me surprised too

I don't know why Noah tweeted about this at the moment, but some suggestions as to why it is true follows:

Monday, November 23, 2020

In more disturbing cute furry animal news

The New York Times notes that the COVID 19 mink cull in Denmark is causing real political problems:

The slaughter of minks in Denmark to prevent the spread of a potentially dangerous new strain of the coronavirus has prompted a political crisis in the country, with the minister of agriculture forced to step down and the government in danger of collapse.
The cull has led to a political crisis in Denmark, with right-wing parties accusing the government of using the pandemic to try to end mink farming in the country. Denmark is home to some of the world’s largest mink farms, with an estimated population of more than 15 million.
The opposition is calling for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to resign after a hurried decision to cull the animals after a mutated strain of the virus was found to have made the leap from the animals to humans....
When Ms. Frederiksen ordered the killing of all the animals in Denmark two weeks ago, the military had to step in to assist the country’s approximately 1,100 mink farmers in the slaughter.
Mogens Jensen, the minister of agriculture, condemned the rapid action taken by the government, saying it had no legal basis to kill the animals and destroy the industry.
On Thursday, a Danish newspaper, B.T., reported that Mr. Jensen and five other ministers had warned in September that culling beyond the infected areas was illegal.
The slaughter was halted midway through the effort and the focus shifted to culling minks only in the vicinity of the outbreak tied to the mutated strain of the virus.
But Mr. Jensen had already lost the support of the government and was forced to step down.
The culling of the minks has been met by a broad public backlash, with a study by Aarhus University finding support for the government falling by 20 percent.

It's a little hard to understand whether the public political backlash is inspired by a Right wing-ish "how dare you try to kill our beloved fur industry", or a more Left wing "how dare you kill those cute animals unnecessarily."

I mean - how much public awareness is there in Denmark of what mink farms look like? Because, frankly, to this outsider, the permanently cage bound conditions of these animals doesn't make the practice look at all humane.

Unsurprisingly, anti fur activists see this as an opportunity to close down the industry permanently. And if it does, it will mean that this video effort to paint Danish mink farming in as positive a light as possible was all for nothing. As a PR effort, it transparently is a case of "tries too hard".

The industry was probably on the way out anyway:

Wearing fur remains relatively acceptable in Denmark—enough so that hip young designers like Astrid Andersen and Saks Potts still incorporate it into their collections. But changing tastes and increased animal-welfare concerns have led many of the world’s top fashion designers—from Versace to Ralph Lauren to Vivienne Westwood to Chanel—to drop it from their collections. Many retailers as well, including department stores like Macy’s and online outlets like Farfetch, have pledged to stop selling the product. Fur farming is already banned in the U.K., and France recently announced it would ban mink fur farming by 2025. On the heels of a coronavirus outbreak in its own mink flock, the Netherlands moved up its own plan to phase out mink farming; originally planned for 2024, it must now be complete by March 2021.

So yeah, while I don't wish illnesses on humans in order to stop farming I am uncomfortable with, I guess at least something I approve of came out of COVID.

Potential cheaper workers for manicure shops

This otter behaviour - nibbling down her owner's fingernail, without biting her finger - is pretty unexpected and remarkable. Not to mention close to peak animal kingdom kawaii. (OK, if the fingernail biting doesn't strike you as cute, the second part of the video of the otter seemingly feigning lack of interest in a stick surely is.)

Time for the Reverse Great Leap Forward/Cultural Revolution (which needs a better title)

I was thinking about this article from the Brookings Institute over the weekend:

Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America’s economy. What does this mean for the nation’s political-economic divide?

Here's an extract:

...the stark economic rift that Brookings Metro documented after Donald Trump’s shocking 2016 victory has grown even wider. In 2016, we wrote that the 2,584 counties that Trump won generated just 36% of the country’s economic output, whereas the 472 counties Hillary Clinton carried equated to almost two-thirds of the nation’s aggregate economy.
A similar analysis for last week’s election shows these trends continuing, albeit with a different political outcome. This time, Biden’s winning base in 477 counties encompasses fully 70% of America’s economic activity, while Trump’s losing base of 2,497 counties represents just 29% of the economy. (Votes are still outstanding in 110 mostly low-output counties, and this piece will be updated as new data is reported.)...
So, while the election’s winner may have changed, the nation’s economic geography remains rigidly divided. Biden captured virtually all of the counties with the biggest economies in the country (depicted by the largest blue tiles in the nearby graphic), including flipping the few that Clinton did not win in 2016.

By contrast, Trump won thousands of counties in small-town and rural communities with correspondingly tiny economies (depicted by the red tiles). Biden’s counties tended to be far more diverse, educated, and white-collar professional, with their aggregate nonwhite and college-educated shares of the economy running to 35% and 36%, respectively, compared to 16% and 25% in counties that voted for Trump.

Trump's appeal to the less well educated was well documented. And his appeal to less economically important regions seems to be shown as well.

Trump/Republican belief in conspiracy theory is not just dangerous to democracy, it's dangerous to the globe, given they treat climate change as a fraud conducted by socialist scientists.

In Australia, you see a similar dynamic - climate change denialism is biggest in National Party members, isn't it, and they come from rural electorates.

The irony in all of this is that the actual socialist revolution disaster of the Khmer Rouge was all about depopulating cities to get everyone farming. (The Chinese attempts at farming collectivisation in the Great Leap Forward and subsequent Cultural Revolution being the inspiration, also with terrible results.)

But now, all the bad ideas come from the rural and less educated areas and have undue influence over how us reality based, city sophisticates, need to run the place.

I like a drive through the countryside as much as the next city slicker, but if I were trying to organise a better world now, I think there's a good case for depopulating the countryside and rural towns.

With automation we probably need far fewer people on farms anyway. And cities are supposed to be much more efficient for energy use. And they vote for fewer numbnuts.

So, here's the plan: minimum city size of 1 million. Round up people from the smaller, non-viable towns and make them live at least 50 km from the nearest city. Those who must stay on the land for the good of the nation (vineyard growers, for example!) must agree to send their children to university.

The countryside to be reserved for day trippers. (OK, I'll allow weekends.)

Farming to be more automated than ever before. (If mines, mining trains, and container shipping ports can be as automated as they now are, there's room for a lot more automation in the fields.)

We have to give up on it being a good idea for people to live in the country. It's clearly dangerous and a breeding ground for bad ideas.

OK, and before you say that the failed communist plans were due to city elites sitting around and having bad ideas about how they could control rural populations and activities that they didn't understand at all : yes true - but my Revolution is about not leaving a rural population there in the first place. And all I am saying about farming is not that we need more, or less of it, or that it needs anything radical - just that it can be done with a lot fewer people given modern technology.

Of course, those who oppose such a plan - such as the IPA - I make a special exemption for them living in the city. In fact, they are the only ones who should be forced onto the land. Sinclair Davidson, John Roskam and the smarmy kids waiting for Liberal pre-selection who work there would do well trying to run a sheep station near Longreach, on quasi-libertarian principles, I'm sure...

You know it makes sense.

Now for a better name.

Update: this post was also inspired by my sympathy to takes like this on the American election;

Friday, November 20, 2020

The chapter about schooling is over

I'm feeling a bit...um...not exactly melancholic, but a touch of sadness about time passing. Perhaps it's a twinge of foreboding of empty nest syndrome approaching, too.

You see, my daughter finished Year 12 today. She didn't get emotional, but it reminded me of the mixed feelings I had when I finished high school. On the weekend she will head off to a Noosa "schoolies" stay with her friends - which is not going to help with that "she'll be leaving home soon" feeling.

I think a lot of Year 12 students this year might not be feeling as emotional as in other years, due to the considerably smaller amount of time they spent together at school due to the COVID-19 shut down. So they probably already felt the start of distancing from each other at the start of the year. It's a theory...

Also, my son has finally got his licence and went driving alone for the first time today. That's another change to briefly occupy the mind with imagined disasters, before squashing them into the corner of the brain reserved for thoughts you really shouldn't spend time thinking.

Anyway, such is life. Maybe I deserve a drink tonight. Oh yeah, I am cooking. I had better go...

Thursday, November 19, 2020

The conspiracy theory problem, again

This article at Vox about the terrible state of conspiracy theory belief in America is pretty good. I'm not sure, however, that I agree with it's apparent conclusion that there is not much you can do to stop it, other than wait for people to grow out of it.

In other vegetarian news

I see that McDonalds, which has badly fallen out of favour with me and my family, is bringing in a "McPlant" burger - presumably similar to the "Rebel Whopper" which I actually quite like from Hungry Jacks. (Speaking of HJ - I only ever go to my local one, which is pretty cheap and basic in design and seems to be run by really unhappy teenagers. I may like one of their burgers now, but the chain still has a negative feeling about it, if you ask me. At least McDonalds tried to make their outlets look more stylish.)

I'm not at all sure how the fancier quality imitation meat market is going. If my local supermarkets are anything to go by, sure, there are lots of start ups trying to sell vegetarian burgers, mince, and imitation chicken meat, but it often seems to be being sold at a discount because the expiry date is about to run out. And there is something of a price issue - they are more expensive than real meat patties that involved raising a cow, trucking it, killing it, grinding it up, making it into patties and transporting it. I guess economies of scale have something to do with it, but you would have thought that something resembling a meat patty made from vegetable protein should be able to be made at the same price as a real meat one.

I don't even know that HJ Rebel Whopper is a success - it was heavily promoted at the start, and was high in prominence at the drive-thru sign, but the last time I went there, it had gone to a hard to spot corner of the signage. This does not augur well.

I should really try more of the frozen, Asian imitation meats. But one I really liked a few years ago - a sort of fake chicken but made from mushrooms and with a pleasingly firmer texture than you usually get from such products - I have not been able to find again, last time I looked.

Anyway, I still feel I should be making more of an effort to increase the vegetarian meals at home. I still say I am never going to feel too guilty about eating a prawn or mussel, though.

Nut roasts noted

I don't know why - perhaps it's just my general fondness for nuts as a very filling form of vegetarian snack/food - but these recipes for "nut roasts" mostly sound pretty appealing.

Vegetarians rejoice: 10 nut roast recipes that won’t let you down

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Exactly

Yes. Given the state of scientific knowledge on global warming, and how they ("skeptics") have for years now clearly lost all of their last gasp arguments ("the pause", "hide the decline", "it's all urban heat island effects" etc), there's really no point in trying to convince people who are absorbed in ridiculous conspiracy belief systems - which climate change denial now is - to move out of the way. Governments just have to move around them.

That's not to say that they shouldn't be forthright about telling people they need to come to their senses. It's just that it need not be done in any polite "I respect your opinion, but it's wrong" sort of way.

Stupid watch

Some people who comment at Catallaxy are still betting on Trump:

Actually, the fact that the betting markets are still taking money on a Trump win is really strange - unethical, I would have thought. Nate Silver complained about it the other day.

Here's a Left wing conspiracy theory for you: some key Right wing figures (politicians or media) who all "on board" with election fraud conspiracy theories are shareholders in the big betting houses.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Time for something more optimistic

I don't know much about Dave Borlace, who makes educational videos on climate change and energy on his Youtube channel Just Have a Think, but he seems pretty good, and reliable.

I particularly liked this one, because I had previously read a bit about flow batteries and thought that they may have a major role in the transition to mostly renewable energy. It seems there may be grounds for optimism:

Just asking questions, Lindsay will say

Allahpundit at Hot Air talks about the ridiculous corrupt stink around Lindsay Graham ringing his fellow Republican to chat about what he do with the Georgia re-count:

Raffensperger told WaPo this afternoon that he and his wife are getting death threats from some of Trump’s more fanatic followers because he insists on claiming that this was a fair election. He also dropped a bombshell, claiming that Lindsey Graham dialed him up and … inquired about excluding some perfectly valid ballots:
In their conversation, Graham questioned Raffensperger about the state’s signature-matching law and whether political bias could have prompted poll workers to accept ballots with nonmatching signatures, according to Raffensperger. Graham also asked whether Raffensperger had the power to toss all mail ballots in counties found to have higher rates of nonmatching signatures, Raffensperger said.
Raffspenger said he was stunned that Graham appeared to suggest that he find a way to toss legally cast ballots. Absent court intervention, Raffensperger doesn’t have the power to do what Graham suggested, as counties administer elections in Georgia.
“It sure looked like he was wanting to go down that road,” he said.
Graham has also publicly entertained the idea of state legislatures declaring their elections void and awarding their electors to Trump. This cretin really does seem willing to condone a coup against the elected incoming government on the thinnest possible pretenses, from excluding legal ballots to just ignoring the result of a state election on the theory that fraud must have occurred to taint it. There’d be nothing left of the country’s civic culture if he succeeded, but so long as Lindsey Graham gets to remain a senator and his party remains in power, that’s a detail. A question to ask yourself: Why did he call up Raffensperger in first place, especially now instead of waiting until the recount is over and speaking to him then? If he was speaking in his role as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, because the committee is investigating election procedures, there’s no reason why that can’t wait until the more important work of counting the votes is finished. The obvious suspicion is that Graham called Raffensperger this week because he really was trying to lean on him on Trump’s behalf to start throwing out ballots in hopes of changing the outcome illicitly, before the result is certified. In a better world, the DOJ would open a corruption case on him tonight.

In normal times, this would be an incredible scandal. Now, given the bottom of the barrel standards Trump has caused the GOP to sink to, it will just be a shoulder shrug.

Oh, now that I see your jihad against ABC is based on a reasonable critique of the organisation, I see your point [sarcasm]

Sinclair Davidson, having a tantrum about the ABC for the millionth time at his blog for fools today:

We need to get away from this notion of judging the ABC by small-l liberal values. The ABC does not practice small-l liberalism. The ABC is infested by extremist left-wing progressives who use small-l liberalism as camouflage to destroy our way of life and civilisation.

Of course, allowing ageing twits like Steve Kates and Rafe Champion, and conservatives like CL, to use his blog promote all of the Right Wingnut conspiracy theorising about the Trump election is just fine, though. No harming democracy in the US at all, those beliefs. Not to mention his blog's promotion of climate change denialism and inaction. That won't hurt "our way of life" at all.

This seems correct

Monday, November 16, 2020

How's the "let's humour him, and he'll go quietly" strategy of some of the GOP politicians going?

Appallingly:

Just what a country needs: a President yelling to his (often religiously fundamentalist) cult-like base that the side which won an election by a substantially larger popular vote is genuinely evil.

The chances that there will be a shooting by one of delusional followers, to defeat "evil", seems to be increasing daily.

Update: the latest -

The biggest Trump suck up tries to convince Trump he can leave and come back

So, even Hugh Hewitt thinks Trump should leave "gracefully". Fat chance.

The final volume of his memoirs can only be imagined now. When Trump leaves D.C. for Mar-a-Lago, he will launch a super PAC, build his presidential library and, yes, begin planning campaigns 2022 and 2024. Trump doesn’t need to own a cable-news network, but he should control a block of prime-time programming. He could effortlessly host his own show, probably with one or more of the Trump children, so he doesn’t have to be on set five days a week. This would allow him time for maintaining and expanding his coalition of at least 72 million.
Trump will likely oversee not just a shadow government but also a robust, ongoing campaign.
Trump and Trump loyalists will work to maintain a hold on the GOP, which is best accomplished by his proceeding smoothly toward a peaceful, graceful transition of power. Then for Trump, a period of consolidation and celebration of his achievements. Then ...

I can't help but giggle at the idea of what is going to be inside a Trump Presidential Library. Comic books? Remainders of all the self promotion books to come from his kids?

I don't think Trump actually has any chance of retaining power over the Republican Party. His cult members seem to continually project their assessment of Trump onto the GOP politicians who have had to actually deal with him. I reckon the great majority treat him as a useful idiot.

Update: I agree with this:

Sunday, November 15, 2020

While we're speaking physics...

...I also liked this video from a French Youtube channel ScienceClic (of which there is also an English version), which has a different way of visualising General Relativity:

Also - this article at The Guardian last year recommends a variety of science and math Youtube channels, some of which I have already checked out. The PBS ones are certainly all pretty good.

Update: actually, that was the wrong video. I meant to post this one:

Back to Maxwell's equations

A few days ago, I was musing about the complexity of Maxwell's equations, and the lack of historical context in most attempts at explaining them.

Behold, via stumbling around Youtube, I have found the Science Asylum channel and if you don't mind his cheesey sense of humour (it's harmless, and a little charming in the way it's adolescent friendly), his videos are really good.

Here is the one having a go at explaining electromagnetism: