Tuesday, January 19, 2021
Chinese marriage not quite what it used to be
From the Journal of Sex Research (you can get the full article on Sci Hub):
Despite growing concern about the “sexual revolution” in China in the past decades, empirical evidence regarding the national trends in prevalence and patterns of extramarital sex (EMS) remains sparse. This study aimed to fill this gap, using data from a population-based, repeated cross-sectional survey administered at four time points during the period 2000–2015. EMS was assessed by asking whether a person in marriage had engaged in sexual activity with someone else during the relationship with his/her current partner. Our findings showed that among married adults aged 20–59, the occurrence rate of EMS nearly tripled over the period 2000–2015, increasing from 12.9% to 33.4% for men, and from 4.7% to 11.4% for women.The increase also was present across all socio economic groups. (If it was mainly amongst the low income factory workers, who travel far from their family to live in a dormitory for most of year, that might account for a lot of it?)
The study notes that it does rely on self disclosure, so is it partly just that more people are prepared to admit to it now?
By the way, the comparative figures in the US are given in the article as:
More recent estimates based on nationwide, probability surveys indicated that approximately 20–25% of US men and 10–15% of US women had EMS experience during their married lives (Atkins et al., 2001; Laumann et al., 1994; Wiederman, 1997).
Monday, January 18, 2021
Also is a great example of why I am completely uninterested in it
OK, back to Trump, treason etc
* Axios is doing some longer form reporting on the post election White House - basically painting a picture of a "professional" team of advisers who knew he had lost and encouraged him to accept it, or at least to try some "sensible" legal challenges, but they lost out to the "mad" team:
On the day after the election, Nov. 4, top staff including Stepien, Clark, Miller, general counsel Matthew Morgan and Jared Kushner had gathered at Trump campaign headquarters in Arlington, Virginia. They believed this would be a serious search for a path to 270 electoral votes through credible legal challenges.
Then Giuliani, Sidney Powell and a swelling conspiracy crew marched into the room — literally.
These two groups — the professional staff and the Giuliani cabal — filled in around one long, rectangular table in a conference room walled in by frosted glass. The pattern repeated itself the day after that and the day after that.
A bizarre routine set in. These meetings would begin with official staff raising plausible legal strategies. Then Giuliani and Powell, a lawyer with a history of floating “deep state” conspiracy theories, would take over, spewing wild allegations of a centralized plot by Democrats — and in Powell's view, international communists — to steal the election.
Bewildered campaign aides would look around the table at one another, silently asking what the hell was going on. One would invariably shuffle out of the room, followed by another a few minutes later. Then another. Then another. The professional staff would reconvene in Stepien's office, about 20 yards down the hall.
Eventually, Giuliani would realize that he and his crew were alone in the conference room. He'd walk down the hall and knock on the glass outside Stepien's office, where about eight aides had squeezed onto a pair of couches. "You guys, where did you go?" Giuliani would say. "This is serious!"
Asked to provide comment on this reporting, which was confirmed by two sources in the room, Powell said in an emailed statement to Axios: "Your story is materially false, but I'm sure the 'elitist and consultant class' that make millions of dollars lying to the American people are behind it and will push that propaganda." Giuliani did not respond to a request for comment.
Officials including Clark, Morgan and Bossie, who played a key role in Trump's 2016 victory, spent many hours trying to stop the former New York mayor from running to the press or the president and muddling the campaign's legal approach. But they were outmatched, and Trump was tweeting his own spiraling conspiracies.
....
On Nov. 13, Clark was in the Cabinet room of the White House with Stepien, Miller and campaign aide Erin Perrine for a meeting on communications strategy when deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino summoned Clark into the Oval Office to settle a legal question.
Trump had Giuliani on speakerphone, and Giuliani, seemingly unaware of Clark’s arrival, was trashing the campaign staff's legal strategy in Georgia — and floating a debunked conspiracy theory about rigged Dominion voting machines.
"Hey, I've got Justin in here," Trump interrupted. "What do you think, Justin?" Clark laid out the legal process in Georgia and told the packed Oval Office that Georgia state law barred requesting a recount until after an election is certified.
"They're lying to you, sir!" Giuliani erupted.
"We're not lying," Clark shot back. "You're a fucking asshole, Rudy."
The following night — without notifying his campaign staff — Trump tweeted that he was putting Giuliani in charge of his legal challenges, along with pro-Trump lawyers Powell, Joseph diGenova, Victoria Toensing and Jenna Ellis.
Trump has never had a clue as to who to take advice from. If they can pander to his narcissism well enough, they'll be on the inside for a while, until things start to look bad, then they're out in a flash.
* An interesting article at Slate about the Reconstruction era after the Civil War, and what it may, or may not, indicated as lessons for today.
* Polling shows the terrible problem of conspiracy belief (and Trump's personality cult) in the Republican Party:
The public mostly rejects the baseless conspiracy theory behind the rioting -- that Biden did not legitimately win enough votes to become president: 65% say that he did legitimately win enough votes, but a sizable share (23%) -- and particularly among Republicans (58%) -- believe that conspiracy theory to be true and that there is solid evidence to support it. There is no evidence that the election was illegitimate, nor that there was widespread fraud in the vote count.
The Washington Post reported very similar figures:
- By 66 percent to 30 percent, Americans overall say Trump acted irresponsibly in his statements and actions since the election. But Republicans say Trump acted responsibly by 66 percent to 29 percent.
- By 62 percent to 31 percent, Americans say there’s no solid evidence of the claims of voter fraud that Trump cited to refuse to accept Joe Biden’s victory. But Republicans say there is solid evidence of fraud by 65 percent to 25 percent.
- 57 percent of Americans say Trump bears a great deal or good amount of responsibility for the assault on the Capitol. But 56 percent of Republicans say Trump bears no responsibility at all, and another 22 percent say he bears just some, totaling 78 percent who largely exonerate him.
- 52 percent of Americans say Republican leaders went too far in supporting Trump’s efforts to overturn the election. But 51 percent of Republicans say GOP leaders didn’t go far enough, while 27 percent say they got it right, a total of 78 percent who are fully on board or wanted more. Only 16 percent of Republicans say they went too far.
I predict some sort of formal denouncing of Trump will need to be made by the establishment GOP to try and get his dumb base back into the fold.
On other topics
I'm sick of how much mental space the departure of Donald Trump, and the problem of how to de-program his "base", is taking up with me, but also 95% of the people I follow on Twitter. It's the car crash that you just can't stop looking at, and keeps distracting you as you try to do other things.
So, on a more trivial note:
* Last weekend, I made a pretty nice prawn and chorizo gumbo. This is one of those dishes with lots of variations in the recipes on the net, so it's worth my future reference to note here that I basically followed this one.
One thing about gumbo recipes: those that include making a roux to thicken it (and I think genuine gumbo always does) invariably give wildly unrealistic times to cook the roux. Like 20 minutes or something. (Even in the recipe I followed it said 15 minutes.) I did once (years ago) try cooking the roux over the lowest heat possible for the recommended 20 - 25 minutes, and it just turned into a dark brown/black mess. I don't understand this - maybe I even posted about it here at the time? - the timing just seems impossibly long. I think this time I got it to 10 minutes, and just followed the suggestion that it starts turning a light caramel colour.
* Finished watching the second series of The Alienist on Netflix. I thought it was very good - a bit of a clearer narrative than the first series, which I really liked but the resolution in the last episode was handled terribly. It became a bit more soapy, I suppose, and a strong emphasis on the women in the series making the men look a bit weak and indecisive. But really, it's a terrific looking show, quite well acted, and I like the formal and somewhat arch manner of the dialogue. I have probably observed before, but the famous Ken Burns Civil War documentary series, with so many extracts from letters from men of all social status, made me think that everyone in the 19th century must have spoken in more elegant English (and lengthier sentences - just like in their novels) than is typically used today.
* Brisbane has had a short period of heightened COVID restrictions due to that one case of the English variety being found in the city.
Although it's a bit painful, especially if you wear glasses, to have to wear a mask when outside the house, I have been observing that there was a high degree of compliance in the suburbs I frequent, and it actually makes me grateful that I live in a country (or city?) where the nutcase proportion is low, and people see the value in collective action. Especially compared to America (or even England, it seems), I like the sense of social cohesion around me that widespread mask wearing indicated.
Sunday, January 17, 2021
Friday, January 15, 2021
Historic photo noted
It's so hard to believe this has become necessary because of a con man like Trump and his fellow grifters who make money by selling conspiracy and vilification.
A constant pattern of disingenuous self serving propaganda
Lots of people complaining about Shapiro getting an article at Politico:
Yes, this fits into a pattern that the right wing commentary has been following for years:
Yes, this fits into a pattern that the right wing commentary has been following for years:
a. promote an alternative fact universe (often by promoting minority, crank views within a field of expertise) to their audience, and telling them that the Left or Centre of politics is malign and wants to "destroy your way of life";
b. if polling indicates they are having some success with such promotion, tell the Left/Centre that if their views had more credibility, they wouldn't be losing so many people in the court of popular opinion;
c. when a Right wing populist like Trump wins, tell the Left/Centre it's their own fault for not listening to the genuine concerns of their "salt of the earth" audience, who always feel overlooked;
d. when a Right wing populist loses, tell the Left/Centre that it would be against their interest to "punish" the common people by carrying out their campaign agenda because that would just confirm their view that no one listens to their grievances, and make them fearful the Left/Centre is about to destroy their way of life.
It's completely self serving and disingenuous and prevents good faith political discussion, and continually encourages a victim mentality amongst the RW "base".
Usual rider: yes, identity politics on the Left can encourage victim mentality on matters such as sexuality, gender, and race: but the consequences of that are no where near as societally damaging as diving into a world of conspiracy belief on matters that harm everyone like climate change and pandemic response, which is what RW victimhood leads to.
Thursday, January 14, 2021
Movie about another failed state noted
I don't think it has attracted as much critical attention as it deserves, but the recent Netflix movie Mosul, about the terrible fighting and danger in that city as a result of ISIS, is very good.
An American made film but with Arabic/Iraqi dialogue (and without featuring one Western character), it's surprising to read that it's the first film directed by its writer Matthew Michael Carnahan. I would guess he has a promising future.
I also see that it was filmed mostly in Marrakesh. (As with Extraction, it's sort of funny to imagine the residents of a city being excited to see a big movie being made there, only to realise on viewing the final film that it was chosen to look a convincingly horrible dump of a place.) I thought the opening drone shots of a destroyed city looked real though - perhaps Mosul itself?
Unfortunately, it's been in the news recently for all the wrong reasons:
There has been a continuing sense of unease and high alert from the stars and filmmakers behind Mosul, the Iraqi-language thriller based on the true tale of an Iraqi SWAT police squad that took to the streets to wipe out ISIS members to avenge the love ones that unit members lost at the hands of the terror organization. The film made a high-profile Thanksgiving debut on Netflix and became one of the most viewed movies on the site in Europe and the Middle East. Unfortunately with the film’s popularity, several of the stars of the film have seen their social media pages filled with unsettling threats of violence that purport to be coming from members and loyalists of the fractured ISIS organization.Well worth watching.
It may be propaganda, but it's very high quality propaganda
So, Youtube suggested this video for me (no doubt because of other building/architecture videos I have watched recently), and it was pretty interesting:
If you can't watch it now, it's about a very, very tall building in Shanghai which has been open a while but seems to have attracted criticism for its low tenancy. It is an innovative building, as the chief architect explains. (And honestly, his body and demeanour doesn't really fit my mental image of what most architects would look like. I expect them to be slim and slightly dandified - more like Tom Wolfe than Jack Black.)
Anyhow, I see that the channel the video is on has a lot of suspiciously pro-China sounding content (and in fact, there is a propaganda aspect to this video, where it is suggested that buildings made with government investment are more likely to take green innovation seriously because they can afford to wait for the return on energy use savings.)
And yeah, I see that CGTN is a Chinese government owned news network with a reputation for controversial pro-China propaganda content.
Gee, the quality of their videos seems very high, though.
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
Sort of funny
Actually, one of the turnarounds of the last year of the Trump administration was the realisation that Melania is no hostage of her marriage - she's a really unpleasant character, like her husband.
The first lady vaguely condemned the attempted coup, saying she was “disappointed and disheartened with what happened last week.” She had much harsher words for those she accused of spreading “salacious gossip” about her, apparently referring to reports about her response to the events.CNN first reported on Friday that the first lady was overseeing a photo shoot of decorative objects at the White House as deadly chaos consumed Washington last week following the president’s speech to his gathered supporters.
“I find it shameful that surrounding these tragic events there has been salacious gossip, unwarranted personal attacks, and false misleading accusations on me — from people who are looking to be relevant and have an agenda,” she said. “This time is solely about healing our country and its citizens. It should not be used for personal gain.”
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
The appalling details of Trump's behaviour on (and after) 6 January start emerging
President Trump today privately — and falsely — blamed "Antifa people" for storming the Capitol, even though clear video and documentary evidence exists showing the rioters were overwhelmingly Trump supporters, Axios' Jonathan Swan reports.
Why it matters: Despite facing an impeachment vote for an assault he helped incite, the outgoing president is still sticking with his tried-and-true playbook of deflecting and reaching for conspiracies.
Behind the scenes: In a tense, 30-minute-plus phone call this morning with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Trump trotted out the Antifa line.
- McCarthy would have none of it, telling the president: "It's not Antifa, it's MAGA. I know. I was there," according to a White House official and another source familiar with the call.
- The White House official said the call was tense and aggressive at times, with Trump ranting about election fraud and an exasperated McCarthy cutting in to say, "Stop it. It's over. The election is over."
From the Washington Post:
But as senators and House members trapped inside the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday begged for immediate help during the siege, they struggled to get through to the president, who — safely ensconced in the West Wing — was too busy watching fiery TV images of the crisis unfolding around them to act or even bother to hear their pleas.
“He was hard to reach, and you know why? Because it was live TV,” said one close Trump adviser. “If it’s TiVo, he just hits pause and takes the calls. If it’s live TV, he watches it, and he was just watching it all unfold.” .........
At 6:01 p.m., Trump blasted out yet another tweet, which Twitter quickly deleted and which many in his orbit were particularly furious about, fearing he was further inflaming the still-tense situation.
“These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long,” Trump wrote. “Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!”
Will Wilkinson is right, again:
More about the continuing problem
More seriously:
They may have deleted, but polling indicates a huge number of Republicans agree with the sentiment.
The situation going forward:
Monday, January 11, 2021
About civil war, etc
Prompted by this:
I would have thought it obvious that a proper, full scale, civil war is just silly: there is no political leadership for it, at all; the clearest political area divide is between rural areas and most city/urbanites - and one cannot last long without the other; and wanky militia are just culture war cosplay when it comes to fighting actually properly organised and armed governments for any length of time.
But, you would have to guess that the biggest danger - and one which is guaranteed to be freaking out the FBI at the moment - is a period of intensified Right Wing terrorism against government facilities, employees and politicians.
Noah Smith interviewed someone who set it out like this:
..I think the odds of an actual civil war in the US are low. Rich countries with large security apparatuses tend not to have these kinds of conflicts - they tend to have some combination of less-aggrieved populations and more effective deterrence and disruption of potential rebels. There are of course exceptions that matter (think Northern Ireland), so nothing is impossible. But what Aila Matanock and I argue in our Foreign Affairs piece is that it's more likely you see some degree on ongoing, but probably *comparably* low-level and sporadic, political violence linked to radical right-wing actors. We've seen plenty of this already, especially death threats and disrupted plots. The US security apparatus seems to be, in general, taking this stuff seriously now, though at points we've seen both local sympathizers and efforts at the federal level to downplay threats from the right. My fear is that this kind of low-level but potentially fatal dynamic could persist, especially linked to a Lost Cause myth of a stolen 2020 election, and fueled by Trump and his base. Even with sustained policing, this kind of thing could drag on, and could kill people, even if we never hit standard civil war definitional thresholds (much less 1864 America).
Thinking out loud here, and without making it sound like I hope RW terrorism takes place: seems to me that the whole "election was stolen by massive Left wing fraud" conspiracy justification is only going to be seriously eroded if Republican leadership AND key right wing media outlets completely repudiate their former semi (or full) endorsement of it.
And I suspect the fastest way for that to happen would be for any RW terrorist attack causing substantial damage (and, probably, death) to occur sooner rather than later.
So if there is going to be (say) a - hopefully less deadly - mini McVeigh bombing, for example, it would honestly be better for it to happen now rather than in (say) 12 months time.
Don't get me wrong: ideally, as soon as Trump is out of office maybe there will be a rush of Republicans to denounce him and all of the conspiracy rumours he promoted, and a unified turnaround of some key figures in the Right Wing universe might start to turn around the dangerous conspiracy believing base.
But I suspect it won't go that way, and its going to take more violence first.
Free market at play
Heh:
As I might have expected, Claire Lehmann has an opinion piece at The Australian: Censorship must be taken out of Big Tech’s hands.
She says, ridiculously:
Almost all avenues of communication and commerce available to Donald Trump have been removed, virtually overnight.
He's a President with an entire Press Office, able to call press conferences at a drop of a hat and 200 journalists and TV cameras would come running to the White House to cover it. Once he's no longer President, he's free to set how ever many private websites he wants, with frequent updates, video messages, live feeds from his toilet if wants. Someone will host him.
She goes on to allow this:
Trump’s permanent suspension may well be supportable from a national security point of view, if these companies, in concert with US law enforcement, have credible evidence of further political violence.
Um, aren't the hundreds or thousands of messages on (say) Parler about taking up arms to reverse the election enough evidence of a national security problem, without waiting for law enforcement to agree?
She then says:
Yet the co-ordinated movement of these companies and their swift removal of Trump’s presence on the internet has chilled observers around the globe.
She cites two people. Meh, I think she might just be exaggerating.
As usual, she then complains about what Twitter hasn't taken action against. This is typical Right Wing whataboutism - although I am not suggesting Twitter or other platforms are above criticism. But it's irrelevant to the urgency to take action about Trump and the danger his lies and disinformation present to the nation.
Her answer though is regulation of platforms:
In the absence of regulation that would help tech companies make decisions with transparency, and an appeals process, tech CEOs respond to public outcry with ad hoc censorship.
Sounds all enormously clumsy and costly to me.
I think it safer to leave this question up to the market.
Dumb or dangerous? Why not both?
So, on the weekend I was watching a PBS Newshour segment where a couple of female reporters who were in the Capitol during last week's wingnut invasion were on, describing their experiences.
My general impression was that they were the luckier ones, who didn't get amongst the worst of it (and didn't get threatened too severely).
One made the point that it was clear that, having got into the building, a lot of Trumpers didn't really know what to do. She tried to interview a few, some of whom (typical dumbasses) were offended she was wearing a facemask, and when told she was from PBS told her it was fake news and stopped speaking to her.
It was pretty clear from some of the photos and video that the uncertainty as to what to do once inside the building was not restricted to one or two people. It was not a massively well organised thing.
There is also a very sarcastic article in The Atlantic which reads a bit like gonzo journalism: Worst Revolution Ever. It is good, and here is a sample:
Outside, a young woman named Elizabeth was weeping and holding a blue terry-cloth towel to her eyes, while a man beside her tried to comfort her. “I made it, like, a foot inside,” she told a reporter, her voice an admixture of misery and grievance, “and they pushed me out and they maced me!” She made it sound like this had happened to her at the Air and Space Museum. When the reporter asked her where she was from, she said, “Knoxville, Tennessee,” in an especially aggrieved tone, as though this was itself part of the outrage. Maced? A person from Knoxville?
Why had she come to Washington? “We’re storming the Capitol!” she whined. “It’s a revolution!” Patty Hearst was more up to speed on the philosophy and goals of the Symbionese Liberation Army before she got out of the trunk. These people were dressed like cartoon characters, they believe that the country is under attack from pedophiles and “globalists,” and they are certain that Donald Trump won the election. In other words, the Founders’ worst fear—that a bunch of dumbasses would elect a tyrant—had come to pass.
On the other hand, there is plenty of evidence of genuine danger and violence, not only from the crowd crush entry (with that poor police officer stuck in the door way, and that or other video showing the rioters spraying mace at the police), but part of the invaders came prepared for something more. As summarised in another Atlantic article It was supposed to be so much worse:
A group led by a man in a QAnon T-shirt chased a police officer up to the second floor, chanting and demanding to speak with senators. Some wore tactical gear—helmets, armor, and black masks covering their entire face. It was easy to miss them with all the coverage of the costumes and poop-smearing and poses struck in Statuary Hall, but they were there, these military-styled men, carrying blunt instruments and fistfuls of zip ties, better known as flex cuffs, capable of restraining hostages. At least one was an Air Force combat veteran, The New Yorker reported. They seemed to act with purpose and knew their way around the Capitol. One carried a semiautomatic weapon and 11 Molotov cocktails. Later, police officers found the two pipe bombs. The devices were outside the buildings housing the Democratic and Republican National Committees, just blocks from the Capitol. Federal agents discovered a truck full of rifles, shotguns, and bomb-making supplies parked outside the RNC headquarters.
The article also makes mention of the Reuters photographer who I have already mentioned in a previous post:
A Reuters photographer on the scene said he heard at least three different rioters say they wanted to find and hang Pence, who supported certifying the results of the election.
There is actually video of the chant to "Hang Mike Pence", so there is no reason to doubt the Reuters guy at all.
It seems to me that most reporting has actually underplayed the murderous malice that was part of the demonstration overall, with the photos of the gallows set up not getting, I think, quite as much publicity as it deserved:
There was ore than one, too:
Besides all of this - people actually died in the melee. How much more serious do right wing apologists want it to be??
Over at Catallaxy, where Australian wingnuts reign, we ever got these bit of ridiculous, offensive commentary from two of the "regulars":
They are idiots from way back, getting dumber and dumber over the years from living in the RW echo chamber, but this is just at the level of so stupid it's like performance art for other numbskulls.
CL has since been posting with his standard "whataboutism" with respect to the 1996 unionists riot at Australia's parliament house. There are physical similarities, but that's about where it ends. It was a shocking, obviously counterproductive bit of political violence that set the Labor Party back for many years.
Where it differed was this: the grievance it was based did nothing to justify it, but it was not based on invented facts, such as the Right has been doing for years; there was not the whole "we have to kill traitors to the nation" mental justification that goes with the American Right's years of bullshit now about it being literally a Socialist/end of the country panic mongering if the Democrats get into power; it had no paramilitary and gun armed participants.
So no, it was bad, Labor and the unions paid the price, as should the Repbulicans electorally for several election cycles.
But they probably won't, unless major changes happen to American political media scene, which will be the subject of a separate post.
Update: here are extracts from tweet thread by someone liberal who was apparently amongst the crowd. He makes a few points worth noting:
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