Still not 100% sure

Another study indicating that the warming Arctic region is helping cause freak cold winter spells in North America, due to the polar vortex breaking down and causing cold air to spread south:

In their study, published this week in Science¹, Cohen and his colleagues compared 40 years of satellite observations of atmospheric conditions over the Arctic with experiments based on computational climate models. The models probed how a decline in Arctic sea ice and snow cover would affect airstreams in the region. Since ice and snow reflect a large fraction of incoming sunlight back into space, whereas the darker ocean and land surface absorb more radiation, this decline is known to drive Arctic warming.

The researchers found that episodes of polar-vortex stretching have markedly increased in the past few decades, and that their models reproduced this behaviour well when they included the effects of Arctic warming.

But some climate scientists are still not sure:

...the idea that Arctic warming might be responsible for cold spells in mid-latitude regions is still hotly debated among climate scientists. At first glance, it might seem obvious that winters will generally tend to get milder in a warming world. But climate models that are commonly used to study complex links between the different components of the climate system diverge on the issue of how strongly Arctic warming might influence mid-latitude winters, and state-of-the-art models do not accurately replicate observed trends in the behaviour of the polar vortex. It remains to be seen whether the models are missing something, or whether the observations of polar-vortex stretching merely reflect natural climate variability, says Daniela Matei, a climate modeller at the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, who was not involved in the study.

I don't know:  seems a bit of an odd co-incidence for it to be "natural climate variability" at a time of clear and rapid Arctic warming...

A voter fraud conspiracy for every election

It seems that the Democrat concern that California's governor will lose the recall election is much reduced.    Hence this:

Tweets on life extension

Was waiting for a tweet like this...

...but Jason spotted it first:

Agreed.  I mean, the guy looks like he should be retired, too.
 

Update:  I posted that before I even watched the video.  Now that I have seen half of it - I definitely do not want this guy as my pilot.  Not only that, it sounds like he has been barely psychologically stable enough to be a pilot for much of his career - he recites a litany of personal problems he's experienced.  

Pilots can be nuts, too.

Libertarian follies at sea

He's talking about this long piece in The Guardian, in which I was surprised to learn that a P&O cruise  ship that used to operate out of Brisbane (and with a bit of a dubious reputation, I think) had been sold to cryptocurrency guys who thought it could be the start of some mini seasteading operation.  

It all failed.

How very Trumpy

France 24 reports:

Tens of thousands of demonstrators flooded the streets in Brazil Tuesday in a show of support on independence day for President Jair Bolsonaro, who is locked in an all-out political battle with institutions including the Supreme Court.  

Anti-Bolsonaro protesters also gathered for huge demonstrations in cities across the country, making the annual national day festivities a high-risk event, with just over a year to go to elections that polls currently put the far-right president on track to lose.

Bolsonaro, whose popularity is at an all-time low, is seeking to fire up his base and flex his political muscle in the face of a flagging economy, soaring unemployment and inflation, and a series of investigations targeting him and his inner circle.

With hardline supporters urging a military intervention to give Bolsonaro unfettered power, there are fears the day's rallies could turn violent, with echoes of the January 6 attack on the US Capitol in support of former president Donald Trump -- to whom Bolsonaro is often compared.

The main difference, and main worry, seems to be that he has the military on side.   Trump never did; at least at the higher level.   (Loose nuts like Flynn excepted, of course.)

 

Tough on COVID

HANOI--Vietnam jailed a man on Monday for five years for breaking strict COVID-19 quarantine rules and spreading the virus to others, state media reported.

Le Van Tri, 28, was convicted of “spreading dangerous infectious diseases” at a one-day trial at the People’s Court of the southern province of Ca Mau, the state-run Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported.

Vietnam has been one of the world’s coronavirus success stories, thanks to targeted mass testing, aggressive contact tracing, tight border restrictions and strict quarantine. But new clusters of infections since late April have tarnished that record.

“Tung traveled back to Ca Mau from Ho Chi Minh City... and breached the 21-day quarantine regulations,” the news agency said.

“Tung infected eight people, one of whom died due to the virus after one month of treatment,” it added.

While on COVID:  there seems to be some online fighting going on about whether that Bangladesh study into the effect of mask wearing is really a well designed and statistically convincing one, or not.  I read this guy's take on the matter and I am inclined to think it is significant.   And yeah, even though the effect was only to reduce infections by 10%, in context:

While the effect may seem small, the results offer a glimpse of just how much masks matter, Mobarak said.

"A 30-percent increase in mask-wearing led to a 10 percent drop in Covid, so imagine if there was a 100-percent increase — if everybody wore a mask and we saw a 100-percent change," he said.

And:

The study’s authors — led by principal investigators Abaluck, Laura Kwong, Steve Luby, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak and Ashley Styczynski — a globe-spanning team that includes researchers from Yale, Stanford and the Bangladeshi nonprofit GreenVoice, emphasized that this did not mean masks were only 9.3 percent effective.

“I think a big error would be to read this study and to say, ‘Oh, masks can only prevent 10 percent of symptomatic infections,’ ” Abaluck said. The number would probably be several times higher if masking were universal, he said.

Yeah, seems to me to be good evidence for mandating mask wearing, at least in some scenarios.  (Schools, I would expect.)

HANOI--Vietnam jailed a man on Monday for five years for breaking strict COVID-19 quarantine rules and spreading the virus to others, state media reported.

Le Van Tri, 28, was convicted of “spreading dangerous infectious diseases” at a one-day trial at the People’s Court of the southern province of Ca Mau, the state-run Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported.

Vietnam has been one of the world’s coronavirus success stories, thanks to targeted mass testing, aggressive contact tracing, tight border restrictions and strict quarantine. But new clusters of infections since late April have tarnished that record.

“Tung traveled back to Ca Mau from Ho Chi Minh City... and breached the 21-day quarantine regulations,” the news agency said.

“Tung infected eight people, one of whom died due to the virus after one month of treatment,” it added.

Smart people can be nuts

I had noticed Trumpy Right wingers citing the opinion of the (now dead) inventor of the PCR test as proving that it's useless or misleading as a COVID test.  I never looked into it in detail:  obviously, culture warriors of the Right are gullible and cling to anything, no matter how stupid, that they think supports their "independent thinking"; and the actual medical authorities saying that PCR is really the test to use were just always likely to be right.

So yeah, I didn't really realise how nutty the inventor of PCR had gone, until I read this article.  Highlights include an encounter with a glowing talking raccoon (probably an alien using a screen memory), and having his life saved by an astral travelling woman he later met for a sexual hook up.    

All very, very plausible.

For those waiting for my last Ring review...

[...hi Tim, although I'm not even sure if you care.  :)]

 Anyway, this last weekend I only got through Act 1 of Götterdämmerung and didn't have time to finish.

The story has taken a turn I wasn't quite expecting - with the new love between Siegfried and Brunnhilde (literally, just one night old) the subject of interference by the very oddly named (even by Wagnerian standards) Gibichungs.   

I really liked the orchestral bit when Siegfried sets off on the Rhine -  it's back to the first theme in the first opera, of course, and elaborated at some length.   And, as people said in their commentary on watching the whole cycle, by this stage, you really start to enjoy recognising the prior themes popping up, even briefly, and being mixed up.   

I hope the end of the world in flames lives up to its hype...

The Chinese puzzle, continued

Noah's substack piece about what on Earth China thinks it is doing with its attack on its own successful tech industries was really good, a few weeks back.  I think I forgot to link to it?  Here it is...

Believe it when I see it

I smell a strong whiff of Murdoch-ian playing both sides of the fence for economic gain in this potentially (kinda, sorta, maybe) big news today reported in the SMH:

News Corp Australia, an influential player in Australia’s decade-long climate wars, will end its long-standing editorial hostility towards carbon reduction policies and advocate for the world’s leading economies to hit net zero emissions by 2050.

The owner of some of the nation’s most-read newspapers, including the Herald Sun, The Daily Telegraph, The Australian and 24-hour news channel Sky News Australia will from mid-October begin a company-wide campaign promoting the benefits of a carbon-neutral economy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in Glasgow later this year.

Rupert Murdoch’s global media empire has faced growing international condemnation and pressure from advertisers over its editorial stance on climate change, which has long cast doubt over the science behind global warming and has since 2007 attacked various federal government efforts to reduce emissions....

From October 17, the company will run a two-week campaign that will advocate for a carbon net zero target to be reached by 2050, which is expected to focus heavily on jobs in a decarbonised economy, particularly blue-collar industries such as mining, resources and agriculture. The campaign, according to multiple sources familiar with the plans who spoke anonymously because they are confidential, said it will be fronted by news.com.au columnist and former Studio 10 host, Joe Hildebrand.

Several sources said Sky News will support the cause that will feature across the metropolitan tabloid mastheads. The Hildebrand-led campaign will not appear in the national masthead, The Australian, they said, but the newspaper will continue to temper its editorial stance on the issue.

The Australian wingnut Right already doesn't think Hildebrand isn't one of them - any campaign by him will be readily ignored. 

The far, far bigger issue is this:

A plan has been devised to limit – but not muzzle – dissenting voices among News Corp’s stable of conservative commentators, who will be expected to reframe their political arguments both in print and on its subscription news channel, which is now broadcast across regional Australia on free-to-air on WIN.

Well, it's impossible to imagine Bolt, Jones and the idiot show that is Outsiders "re-framing" their climate science denial in any meaningful way.   If the Murdochs successfully muzzle them on the issue, well and good.  But I can't see it happening.

 

Odd things seen last weekend

I accidentally ended up at a country athletics meet.  This was an unusual thing for me - to be at something involving sporting competition - so it warranted photographic proof:

(I was actually at the Mulgowie farmer's market.  The athletics meet on the same field was not something that had attracted me.   Fantastically good corn was purchased, by the way.  And a truck on the side of the road at Gatton - not so far away - was selling 20kg of potatoes for $20.  We passed it twice, but my wife wouldn't let me buy a sack.)  

 

The next day, it was fake Italy on the Gold Coast:

To be honest, I don't mind Disneyesque fake environments in terms of buildings, at least. I could do without the imitation art though, in the form of the nude dude.  That's pushing it too far.

Some interesting tweets on China and socialism

Sunday deep thoughts

By the way, that Oklahoma story is so intensely attention grabbing for anyone who believes the Right has been driven nuts by the culture wars, I have been suspecting it might be too good to be true.  Not seen it debunked yet, though.

Update: yes, it would seem the doctor who made the Oklahoma claim was, at the very least, exaggerating.  (I am curious to know the number of cases of Ivermectin poisoning there are, though, whether in that State, or elsewhere.)  Still, my sense of "too 'good' to be true" seems to be working well.

Well, when you put it that way...

Some further tweets from the thread:

Record intense rainfall causes flash flood...again

My prediction for years that flooding will be a key factor in convincing people and governments that dangerous climate change is real seems to be getting vindicated repeatedly this year:

Why is my screenshot not always capturing the image in a tweet now?  It's annoying.

Stare into the robot's eyes

One of the most surprising bits of research of recent years has been that about the effect of people staring into eyes.   

It seems that robot gaze even has an effect:

In most everyday life situations, the brain needs to engage not only in making decisions but also in anticipating and predicting the behavior of others. In such contexts, gaze can be highly informative about others’ intentions, goals, and upcoming decisions. Here, we investigated whether a humanoid robot’s gaze (mutual or averted) influences the way people strategically reason in a social decision-making context. Specifically, participants played a strategic game with the robot iCub while we measured their behavior and neural activity by means of electroencephalography (EEG). Participants were slower to respond when iCub established mutual gaze before their decision, relative to averted gaze. This was associated with a higher decision threshold in the drift diffusion model and accompanied by more synchronized EEG alpha activity. In addition, we found that participants reasoned about the robot’s actions in both conditions. However, those who mostly experienced the averted gaze were more likely to adopt a self-oriented strategy, and their neural activity showed higher sensitivity to outcomes. Together, these findings suggest that robot gaze acts as a strong social signal for humans, modulating response times, decision threshold, neural synchronization, as well as choice strategies and sensitivity to outcomes. This has strong implications for all contexts involving human-robot interaction, from robotics to clinical applications.

Update:   hey, this reminds me - I recently got around to watching the modest budget, but pretty good, science fiction movie Ex Machina on Netflix.  Staring into a robot's eyes is a key part of that movie.   I recommend it.

That Texas abortion law is a really bad way to deal with the issue

I find it hard to believe that anyone of moderate Conservative values (say, Douthat), can run a credible defence of the Texas anti abortion law as being good for society when it operates by enabling private actions against abortion.   From Axios:

Details: Texas' Senate Bill 8 does not provide any exceptions for rape of incest. It also allows for people to sue anyone suspected of helping a person to obtain an abortion, regardless of whether they have a direct relationship with the person or not.

• Those who are successful can be awarded at least $10,000.
• Texas Right to Life set up a "whistleblower" website where people can submit tips on individuals that they believe are violating the law... 
  

  Texas' abortion ban is hard to challenge because the state is not the one enforcing the law, private citizens are.

• "The Constitution, including Roe v. Wade, only applies against the government, it doesn’t apply against private individuals," Laurence Tribe, a constitutional law expert at Harvard, told TIME.
• "That’s what makes this really dangerous. It’s a kind of vigilante justice, circumventing all of the mechanisms we have for making sure that the law is enforced fairly, and that it’s not enforced in a way that violates people’s rights," Tribe added.

And this:

 This is real serious culture war stuff:   enabling those with pretty fundamentalist views of the morality of abortion to sue others who do not agree with them.

True observation

 

Bad smells from COVID

This video about the odd, sometimes long lasting, side effect of COVID 19 called parosmia (whereby normal food smells become unpleasant) is well done and quite interesting: